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| The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has taken its first crack at how much snow they expect from the storm starting Wednesday night. This map shows most places seeing six to 12 inches, with less in far southern Vermont due to mixed precipitation. Expect adjustments to this forecast in the next day or two. |
The National Weather Service in South Burlington has gone ahead and popped up a winter storm watch. It's in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday afternoon for most of Vermont.
By my count, Vermont is now among 22 states under a winter storm watch, warning or blizzard warning. This stretches from Oregon and Washington to Maine.
Before we get to the main event, a smaller storm will trigger valley rain showers and mountain snow showers this afternoon, trending toward all snow this evening.
There could be brief, heavy snow squalls harassing us in a few spots. Accumulations will be mostly less than an inch in the valleys, with maybe a few inches way up near the Green Mountain summits.
After a quiet and increasingly cloudy Wednesday, we'll start getting into the main show Wednesday night.
A warm front separating record warm air well to the south from seasonably cold winter air over us and to our north sets the stage of this thing. The warm front extended this morning all the way west to Iowa.
Rushes of warm, wet air running up and over this colder air are triggering the winter weather. Some places will be hit harder than others. Minneapolis, for instance, is bracing for a paralyzing storm that could well be one its largest in history. They're expecting perhaps 20 inches of snow with winds gusting to over 35 mph.
Don't try to go to Minneapolis this week, kiddos!
It doesn't look like it will be that bad here in Vermont, but it looks like we'll still take a pretty good hit.
A storm will run west to east along the warm front Wednesday night and Thursday. The clash of warm air vs cold air will be so strong over us Wednesday night and early Thursday that we will have a good burst of heavy snow. There's even a chance we could hear a rumble or two of thunder. Yes, thundersnow!
Current forecasts have most of us receiving six to 12 inches of snow, but that forecast will surely be refined up or downward in some areas, depending on where things set up.
A huge complication with this storm is a band of freezing rain and sleet that will set up from northern Illinois all the way to somewhere in New England.
Southern Michigan, southern Ontario and parts of western New York seem set up for a damaging ice storm with this thing.
Once again, it probably won't be as bad in Vermont, but ice will still be a danger. Especially in far southern Vermont. Some forecasts call for isolated ice amounts as much as a quarter inch. At that point, you begin to run into a little tree damage and some power outages.
Sleet could extend as far north as Route 2 on Thursday. Not sure on that yet. By Thursday afternoon, the precipitation won't be coming down as heavily as it did earlier. Again, expect some adjustments to this forecast.
It will be colder than we've gotten used to during this storm, especially in northern Vermont. Temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday will barely make it to around 20 in northern Vermont. Not a big deal for late February, but colder than it's been.
An Arctic cold front and another wave of low pressure will bring possibly heavier snow showers Thursday night. This will also put us in a deep freeze for Friday and early Saturday. It'll probably get a little below zero Friday night and stay nippy Saturday.
Like the even more intense cold wave earlier this month, this will soon go away. By Sunday afternoon, it should be in the low 30s, which is about normal for late February.
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