Western Snow Drought. Florida Snowier than Utah. But Is Relief Finally Coming To Rockies?

Judging from the white residue on the rock in the top
photo, Lake Powell was already very low several months
ago. Bottom photo is a recent picture. A Year Without
a Winter is creating dangerous water shortages
in much of the West 

While the East is having the kind of bitter cold and winter storms not seen in years or even decades, the West is enduring the Year Without A Winter. 

And that's getting worrisome. 

 Most of the Rocky Mountains are already in drought. This winter out west has been anything but wintry. The region has experienced springlike temperatures all season and it has barely snowed. 

Unless it snows hard and soon, the ground will dry out quickly in the spring, setting the stage for a horrific fire season.  Reservoirs and other water sources could get critically low. 

Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and Colorado have all been running at least six degrees warmer than average this winter.  

Precipitation  is also running below normal this winter through most of the Rocky Mountain region. 

Much of what little has fallen came as rain, instead of the snow that normally falls. You need that deep mountain snow cover to feed reservoirs and to keep the forests fairly moist heading into wildfire season.  Thawing has been seen at elevations of 10,000 feet this winter, a time of year when snow should be continuously piling up on the mountaintops

Salt Lake City, Utah only had a trace of snow during January.  Marianna, Florida had 1.3 inches of snow in January. Snow flurries fell as far south as Sarasota, Florida.  

It didn't rain much in Utah either. Salt Lake City had 0.42 inches of precipitation in January, compared to a normal of 1.43 inches. On Sunday, SLC  tied their record high for the date at 64 degrees.

 As the  Washington Post tell us: 

Jon Meyer, the assistant state climatologist in Utah, said that Utah is 'officially in uncharted territory' in terms of the low snowpack,

It's even weirder than you'd think in Utah. Usually there's little evaporation during the winter in Utah as the landscape is normally mostly frozen or covered in snow. Oddly warm temperatures have left bare ground, and that is driving up evaporation rates, making drought worse. 

The snow pack in Washington State was just 26 percent of normal as January closed. The state was slammed by atmospheric rivers in December But those storms were so warm that rain fell almost all the way to the summits of the Cascades and volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. 

In Colorado, snow cover as of February 1 was the lowest on record for the date, if  you measure through federal satellite data that began in 2001. Most snow monitoring stations in Colorado with records stretching back to the 1980s are at record or near record low levels, Colorado Public Radio reports. 

The lack of precipitation this winter in the headwaters of the Colorado River is the worst in the region. The Colorado River water ends up in Lake Powell, which stores \water for millions of people. Lake Powell water is also released to generate hydropower. The reservoir is the second largest in the United States.

So yes, Lake Powell is pretty damn important, and it turns into a crisis if it empties out too much. Which it is poised to do. 

Lake Powell is only about 25 percent full, and the water supply flowing into Lake Powell will be just 38 percent of normal through July, if current projections hold. 

In California, the winter got off to a pretty good start with some heavy storms depositing inches of rain and feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. But that moisture supply shut off in January. Statewide, snow water equivalent was only about 59 percent of normal as of January 30. The Sierra snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California's water needs.

Luckily, reservoirs in California are still full because the previous three winters were on the wet side. California is not in drought, though abnormally dry conditions crept into the extreme northwest corner of the state recently. 

The ski industry has taken a hit out west, too.  Vail in Colorado, for instance, is enduring a 20 percent drop in skier visits this winter. 

It's usually the western ski areas that are buried deep in snow while the east struggles. Usually, it's the western resorts that enjoy a few hundred inches of snow per winter. Not this year.  Mount Baker which has a national record for most snow in one season, with 1,140 inches, in Oregon, had only 280 inches of snow through the final days of January.

For perhaps the first time in memory, it's an eastern ski area that was, at least at the end of January, leading the charge. By the time January closed out, Jay Peak in northern Vermont had already collected 300 inches o snow. 

 SOME RELIEF

The persistent high pressure over the western U.S. that blocked storms from affecting the western third of the United States is breaking down, and storms are finally starting to move in. Forecasts give almost everyone in the Rocky Mountains region some precipitation over the next week.

Some areas of the Rocky Mountains are in for more than a foot of snow. The Sierra Nevada in California might see a few feet of new snow in the coming 10 days or so.

Any rain or snow will be welcome, but it's unclear how much precipitation will drop and how long the stormier pattern might last.

Still, the West needs much above average precipitation before the winter and early spring rainy season peters out. So far, at least, none of the storms in the forecast look exceptionally large .

The West might be looking at a long, hot, dangerous summer. 

 

  

 

Heat Starts Today; Peaks Tuesday To Thursday, Then What? Also: Snowy Elsewhere

For the duration of this heat wave, I will be posting
winter pics to cool you off when I write about this
heat wave. First in the series: A photo of 
Mount Mansfield in January, 2021.

The long-anticipated heat wave here in Vermont is just about to begin, just as expected.

A warm front was moving into the state early this morning. Winds have turned decidedly to the south, and dew points -  a measure of how humid and oppressive it feels out there - were just starting to rise as of dawn this morning.  

Those dew points rose from the arid 40s to comfortable 50s by 6 a.m. and should be in the very humid mid and upper 60s by mid to late afternoon. 

A few light showers will be around, especially this morning. Clouds and such will hold temperatures this afternoon in the 80s as the hottest air will still be lurking just to our west.

You'll hear various predictions for high temperature bandied about, but just know it will be dangerously hot Tuesday through Thursday. I've seen a few models bring the hottest spots in Vermont to 100 degrees, but I still don't think it will quite get there.

But who cares? It'll be plenty hot enough. 

The Champlain Valley should make it into the mid-90s during the three days. The lower Connecticut Valley could see upper 90s.  Most of the rest of the Green Mountain State will endure temperatures in the 90-95 degree range.

Humidity will also be about as high as it can get in a Vermont summer. 

To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a heat advisory for those three days. 

The heat index - what it feels like if you factor in both temperature and humidity - will feel as hot as 105 degrees all three days. 

You're really going to want to take it easy. You might read my post on why heat waves are deadly - the "neutron bomb" of weather disasters for more details. 

As VTDigger points out, Vermont's homeless population and the homeless in all areas affected by this heat wave, are in particular danger. They're basically outside all the time, of course.  They might not have as easy access to clean water as we do.  You really need to stay hydrated to remain safe in the kind of weather we're about to have.

Sometimes, homeless people fill water bottles with water from rivers, which is not at all safe. 

As I said the other day, keep your eyes on your friends and neighbors who are elderly or have health problems. Make sure they'll have access to cool air. Or "kidnap" them for some time in a cool movie theater, shopping center or restaurant. 

Remember the effects of heat waves on the body are cumulative. You might get through the heat on Tuesday like a trooper, but by Thursday, people can be in real trouble with heat illnesses. 

Storms?

One secondary thing we'll have to watch out for is thunderstorms. They will be really few and far between Tuesday and Wednesday. But an updraft near a mountain, or a lake breeze hitting shore could fire up a storm here or there. 

These storms will go from 0 to 100 in an instant and can become severe with damaging winds quickly. These storms will also quickly collapse, and die, and it's that phase in which they can unleash a fast microburst.

There's a somewhat better chance of storms possibly severe ,Thursday afternoon and evening as a disturbance approaches from Canada. 

Lucking Out, Sort Of?

In some respects, ,we're lucking out there in Vermont. The strongest heat doesn't look like it will last as long as points further south - from Indiana and Ohio to the Mid-Atlantic. There the heat could last at least until Monday. 

We in Vermont should turn more reasonable Friday into the weekend. It'll still be warm and humid, but not extremely hot. Unless a stalled weather front decides to position itself further north than expected.

That the heat dome will be just to our south Friday through the weekend puts us in Vermont potentially in what is known as the "ring of fire" Thunderstorms, potentially severe with heavy rain, often ride repeatedly along the northern edges of big heat domes. 

Vermont could potentially be in that ring of fire. This is not a forecast per se, but an alert that the potential is there. It's hard to forecast where these storms might fire up. They could end up being mostly to our south or mostly to our north. Or they'll hit us directly, but not be all that bad. often have batches of

WEIRD WEATHER ELSEWHERE TOO

Whenever the weather pattern gets wonky in one spot, it will often make things weird elsewhere, too.

In this case, the huge heat dome forming over the eastern U.S. and southeast Canada helps create a corresponding dip in the jet stream further west. 

The result is an odd cold snap in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. 

If you want at least a little psychological relief from the heat, you'll do well over the next couple of days watching videos from some high country in the northern Rockies. 

A winter storm warning of all things is in effect for some of the high elevations of eastern Idaho and western Montana. Up to 14 inches of snow are expected in some spots.

While officials are warning outdoor enthusiasts to tone it down because of the heat in the Northeast, similar outdoor sporty types are told to guard against hypothermia, impassable backcountry roads and trees falling under the weight of the wet snow. 

While this wintry weather in the northern Rockies and Northwest is definitely unusual for this time of year, it's not as extreme or weird as the heat wave we'll be experiencing. 

Freeze warnings and frost advisories were in effect for high deserts areas in Nevada this morning. Strong, dry winds in California and the central and southern Rockies are raising wildfire concerns. 

Meanwhile Minnesota and some surrounding areas are sandwiched between the heat to the east and the cold to the west.

That means they're stuck under repeated rains and storms that are raising flood concerns all week. Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the eastern Dakotas could see up to five inches of rain through the next seven days, on top of the heavy rains they already got over the weekend. 

So I guess it's pick your poison for bad weather in the U.S. this week. We drew the "lucky" heat straw here in Vermont.  

Not Just Us: Already, Another Global Summer Of Extreme Heat, Fires

Water beads up on a clematis in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden today after a pre-dawn thunderstorm. The storm
only deposited a quarter inch of rain, so drought 
worries will linger, even as cooler air blows
in to Vermont today and tongiht. 

The record heat that gripped Vermont the past few days was thankfully short-lived, and we have a pretty extended period of comfortable weather to look forward to.

However, across the Northern Hemisphere, this is shaping up to be another climate changed, torrid summer, with many more records sure to fall. 

It's only the first half of June, and already, some terrible heat waves have hit disparate places.  

We're in for a long, smoky summer.  Smoky, because huge wildfires inevitably come with the heat waves and droughts across vast northern and mid-latitude forests.

The hot spell here in Vermont was certainly impressive, bringing us the toastiest readings for so early in the season. 

Relief is at hand. Today will be another warm one here in Vermont, but you'll notice the humidity dropping pretty quickly. 

As of 6 a.m. dew points in Vermont were still near 70, pretty oppressive. But the dew point in Montreal had already crashed to 55 degrees and in Quebec City the dew point was a refreshing 48 degrees. That's the kind of air that's about to come toward us.

A final band of showers and thunderstorms was working its way southeastward across Vermont at dawn. Some spots got a little needed rain yesterday in southern Vermont and before dawn today in northern areas.

There was actually a flash flood warning in effect in parts of southeastern Vermont for a time Tuesday due to some torrential rains there. 

Early this morning, Burlington picked up 0.28 inches of rain, which really isn't much at all, but it was still the wettest day since May 5 - over a month! 

There are no signs of more hot weather for at least the next 10 days around here, but that doesn't mean lots of other places will avoid it. Heat is already the story of this young summer

WESTERN "DEATH RIDGE"

The heat is sloshing  back to the western United States, where another "death ridge" as I and others call it lately, is going to envelop the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain West.  This not-so-scientifically named "death ridge" is an enormous, stubborn northward bulge in the jet stream.

Underneath a summer death ridge, droughts rapidly intensify as temperatures records break under relentless sunshine. 

In the Midwest and Great Lakes the heat wave that grabbed at us in New England started last Friday, and with the "death ridge" building, it's going to stay wicked hot in the Intermountain West and Plains. 

This dry heat will probably break more record highs out west, and worsen the drought, and the wildfire situation. 

I think I mentioned it was 106 degrees the other day in North Dakota, by far a record for so early in the season, so you know that state, often an icebox, is wilting.  Since the heat is sloshing back out that way, much of the western and northern Plains are in for an extended period of torrid condition. 

Tuesday was the sixth consecutive day over 90 degrees in Minneapolis. They'll have two more hot days to go before temperatures temporarily "cool" into the upper 80s. 

In Sioux Falls, South Dakota, the 90 degree heat started June 3 and escalated to 101 by June 5.  It'll be probably be in the 90s there every day through most of next week except for perhaps a break on Friday.

It's always hot in the Desert Southwest this time of year, but the  "death ridge' will really pile things on.  Phoenix should get into the mid one hundred teens early next week. Death Valley will have little trouble hitting 120 degrees. 

The United States isn't the only place that's broiling. 

GLOBAL HOT SPOTS

 As in most recent summers, pockets of extremely hot weather are popping up across much of the Northern Hemisphere. This year, it's getting an early start.

Some areas of the Middle East and Central Asia just suffered through the worst heat on record for so early in the season. In the United Arab Emirates it got up to 125.2 degrees, the hottest on record for that nation. It equals the national record set in July, 2017.  According to @extremetemps on Twitter, a city in Iran hit 51 C..  In Turkmenistan, it as 46.7 degrees. It was as hot as 44.7 in Uzbekisgan and 43.7 in Tajikistan.  

FIRES AND DROUGHT

All this heat is naturally helping fuel wildfires.  

There have been periodic forest fire alerts in the north woods of Minnesota for days, and that's expected to continue.  A wildfire in Arizona expanded dramatically over the weekend, forcing evacuation in and near the town of Superior. 

A bigger concern is the West Coast and Intermountain West, which is in the grips of a severe drought. Wildfire alerts have become a daily occurrence out there, and that's no going to change. Probably for the rest of the summer. 

Water shortages are becoming critical in the Southwest.  The dry heat expected over the next week or more exacerbates evaporation, and increases the use of water by us humans. 

Lake Oroville, a reservoir in northern California is almost
empty due to drought.  Trees on the left are scorched and
dead due to a wildfire last year. Photo by 
Noah Berger/AP

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in seven states. Lake Mead, the reservoir behind the famous Hoover Dam on the Colorado River,  is at just 37 percent capacity, says CBS News. 

More from CBS:

"Since 2000, Lake Mead has dropped 130 feet, about the height of a 13-story building. Islands in the lake that used to be completely submerged are now visible." 

By late summer, many areas of California, Nevada and Arizona will have cuts in water allocation for consumers, mostly farmers, due to this mega-drought.

Further north at Lake Oroville in California, the reservoir is only at 39 percent capacity and dropping.  This after a winter in which precipitation fell short by over a foot.  The dam at Lake Oroville might have to stop generating hydro power later this summer due to the low water level. To underscore the point, trees along much of the lake's shore are scorched and dead, victims of a wildfire last summer. 

New wildfires in California are inevitable this summer. They'll start any minute now.

Meanwhile, satellite images caught large wild fires already burning, very early in the season, north of the Arctic Circle in Siberia.   California vegetation is ready to explode into flames, and parts of Canada are a tinderbox, too.

And though we are about to start a pretty good stretch of comfortable weather here in Vermont, there's no telling whether we will have even bigger, longer, hotter heat waves than the one we just had once we get into July and August.

The way things are going, that's a real threat.

Hope You Enjoyed The Mild Autumn Weather: It's Over

Because of recent mild nights, I still have zinnias blooming
in late October against a backdrop of fading fall colors in
St. Albans, Vermont. Upcoming colder weather will
finish off any lingering live plants in my gardens.

Yesterday in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature reached 76 degrees, just two degrees shy of the record high for the date, and 22 degrees above normal. (It was considerably cooler in eastern Vermont).

Before dawn this morning, it was almost summer-like, with temperatures still in the 60s in the Champlain Valley.  

If you didn't get out to enjoy the warm weather, you missed your chance. 

Yesterday was likely the last truly warm day until next spring.  Sure, we'll have a few mild days in November, but chances are the 70s will not make a return for four or five months at least. 

Starting this afternoon, we Vermonters will have some pretty typical conditions for November, even though we're not quite at that month yet.

Temperature for most of us will be in the 40s by this afternoon, and the chances of it getting above 50 again through next weekend are pretty slim, except maybe in the warmer valleys. Sunday's dry chill will give way to a damp, wet, stay inside type of Monday. 

The rest of the week will be blah with clouds, breaks of sun, maybe a light shower here and there, which would come down as snow in the mountains.  This is nothing remarkable for Vermont this time of year, but it is a pretty abrupt change.

Nights in particular have been mild lately, so frosts and freezes have been minimal, especially in the Champlain Valley. In my St. Albans, Vermont yard, II  plucked a ripe, tasty cherry tomato from a remaining plant in my garden yesterday and ate it. I think that's the latest in the season I've ever had a garden tomato. 

My zinnias are still blooming, a few other potted plants are still trying to put out flowers and my perennial beds are still partly green.  That state of affairs will inevitably change with the frosts and freezes coming up this week 

At least this return to chilly weather is nowhere near as dramatic as the mid-winter conditions across the northern tier of the United States from Washington State to upper Michigan. 

Spokane, in eastern Washington State on Friday had 6.9 inches of snow, their largest October snowstorm on record. Spokane's normal temperatures this time of year are similar to Burlington's.

A blizzard warning has been issued for parts of the Montana Rockies. Winter storm warnings for heavy snow extend from Idaho to Nebraska. 

Temperatures in the single numbers and teens below zero are expected this weekend in Montana and Wyoming, and record  single-digit cold is expected in the Dakotas.

Thankfully, nothing that harsh is coming our way quite yet.