Big Heat Waves Hitting Large Parts Of World, Are We Next?

When you see a weather pattern like this in the
summer with a big ridge or northward bulge in
the jet stream over the Northeast, expect a heat
wave. This is one forecast for next Tuesday, 
though computer models are varying on the
strength and duration of the hot spell. 

With climate change taking hold more and more, dangerous, record breaking heat waves have been hitting different parts of the world each summer in the past few years.  

It's only June, but the deadly extreme heat fest for 2025 has already started here on Earth.

 What strikes me the most is that there are currently so many record heat waves going on in different parts of the globe simultaneously. 

There's always a heat wave somewhere in the summer, but the fact that places as diverse as Japan, France, and Kuwait are breaking all time record highs for the month of June all at the same time is pretty unsettling.

We in Vermont could get at least a taste of the hot weather next week. And I think all time record heat will hit the Green Mountain State within the next few years.  More on that in a bit. 

WORLDWIDE HEAT

First, we'll look at some of the incredible heat withering different parts of the world. Much of this information comes from Maximiliano Hererra, a climatologist who tracks worldwide heat waves.

Our first visit is to Kuwait, since the strongest heat was there. Kuwait is an extraordinary hot nation anyway, but this is ridiculous. At last report, the following Kuwaiti figures haven't been confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization.

But if these temperatures are real, they're insane. 

If the 130 degree temperature in Kuwait is confirmed, it would tie the reliable record for the world's hottest temperature on record, which was 130 degrees in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California on July 9, 2021.

The widely reported hottest temperature isn 134 degrees in Death Valley on July 10, 1913, but there are questions about the reliability of that long-ago reading. 

EUROPE HEAT

A heat wave is building in Europe, too, with record high temperatures already reported in France and Germany. A few cities have already set record highs for the entire month of June. One town in France has hit 100 degrees over the pst couple of days. It's been as hot as 96 degrees in Germany.

Nights in parts of western Europe have been sultry, giving no real relief from the heat. Overnight lows in much of Germany over the weekend were in the low 70s. 

Mertola, Portugal on Sunday reached 105 degrees, hottest for so early in the season. Parts of Spain broiled over the weekend in temperatures as high as 107 degrees.

ASIA

At least 23 weather stations in China have broken their all time record high temperatures for the month of June. In Japan, at least a dozen cities have set record highs for the entire month of June, with readings reaching the upper 90s.  Parts of Indonesia, India and Pakistan are also reporting unprecedented June heat. 

UNITED STATES

The eastern United States is being plagued by persistent storminess that has led to some terrible flash flooding in the central Appalachians. Those floods are expected to continue for the next couple of days, but a new element is about to be added.

Forecasts call for a strong, hot ridge of high pressure to develop over the East early next week. At least a some record high temperatures are expected from the Plains to the East Coast. It's possible a few cities could see their all-time record for the month of June threatened. 

Some computer models depict insanely hot weather in the Northeast early next, though I think a few of these are overdone.  Some runs of the European model bring New York City to an all time high of 107 degrees. The Euro depicts highs up to 101 degrees in southeast Vermont and 97 degrees as far north as Burlington.

I doubt it will get that hot. I think the European model is exaggerating. But the way things are going around the world, who knows?   

VERMONT FORECAST

A taste of very warm, oppressive weather will arrive tomorrow and Thursday, with high humidity and temperatures well up into the 80s.  This won't be anywhere near any record highs, but it will be our most solid introduction to heat and humidity yet this year.

Showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Thursday will help hold temperatures well under 90 degrees, but will help keep the humidity incredibly uncomfortable.

We get a brief break Friday and Saturday with high temperatures both days in the 70s. But then the heat should begin to build back up starting Sunday, when it should get into the 80s with increasing humidity. 

Most forecasts have much of Vermont in the low 90s next Monday and Tuesday. There's a slight chance those outlier models of extreme, record breaking heat early next week are correct, but for now, I'm really doubting that. 

The heat next week should be mercifully brief, as temperatures by midweek should drop some.  But only to levels that are normal, or a little warmer than normal for this time of year. 

The long range weather pattern forecast also suggests that strong heat will spend most of the rest of June and probably beyond lurking not all that far to our south and west.  If the wind swings in the right direction, we have the potential for more big oppressive hot spells through the summer. 

NOAA forecasts for this summer in New England have consistently pointed toward a hotter than normal summer. 

FUTURE HEAT

While June and all-time heat records have been falling worldwide in recent years, the all-time hot records for Vermont remain distinctly old fashioned.

The hottest on record for anywhere in Vermont still stands at the 105 degrees recorded down in Vernon way back on July 4, 1911. The hottest it's ever gotten in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944.

Now that climate change is increasingly in our lives, I think it's just a matter of time before those old records are broken. And I suspect it could come within just a matter of a few to several years.

We've had some incredible, record smashing hot spells in Vermont in recent years, but they have tended to not come in the summer.  It's just a roll of the dice when they hit. 

In Burlington, records go back to the 1880s. But the records for hottest temperature on record for the entire months of February, May, September, November and December have all happened since 2002 - so pretty recently in the grand scheme of things. Just last Halloween we shattered the record for hottest for so late in the season - 78 degrees on October 31.

That's why I think we are close to breaking are all-time record highs. An intense mid-summer unprecedented heat wave feels inevitable in this age of climate change. 

The (Easy) Hunt For Hot October

Here's one forecast map that shows a full latitude ridge
extending from the Gulf of Mexico to Greenland mid-month
That would indicate warmer than normal weather over all
of eastern North America. Western North America,
especially U.S., would be on the cool side. 

In the Northern Hemisphere, the heat of summer is generally over by late September and early October as we plunge toward winter.  

In this climate change world, the weather has not gotten the memo.

Late season heat records have been broken in a LOT of places at a remarkably fast clip in late September and early October.  

In just the first two days of October, hottest temperature for the month records have been broken or tied in four nations. These are 114.8 degrees in Iran; 110 degrees in Morocco; 102 degrees in China and 90 degrees in South Korea, according to meteorologist Scott Duncan, in a thorough recent thread on Twitter. 

The Canary Islands also hit an October record at 101 degrees.

While I was visiting the Great Plains about a week ago, in the final days of September, record heat had engulfed that area, and that hot weather extended well into Canada.  Where I was staying in Yankton, South Dakota,  temperatures exceeded 90 degrees three days in a row.

Hazen, North Dakota reached 100 degrees on September 28, which is likely the furthest north on record the temperature has gotten that hot that late in the season. 

More than two dozen heat records were broken in Saskatchewan, Canada in the last week of September, including 92 in Regina. 

While we in Vermont are not experiencing record heat, we're certainly escaping the kind of chill we often see this time of year. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal  all of this week and very likely beyond that, and daytime highs will poke up into the 70s on some days. 

Nights once again have been particularly warm.  It was 58 degrees early this morning in Burlington, a temperature that would not at all be unusual for that time of day in July.

Most places in the Green Mountain State have not yet seen their first autumn frost this year. Most of Vermont  usually sees its first frost of the season right about now.  That's not happening this week. Probably won't happen next week, either. 

We're not yet at the stage at which the first frost would set records for lateness.  Records for latest first frosts are right around Halloween.

The persistent warmth is forecast to continue across the eastern half of North America at least through mid-month.  This will include well above normal temperatures far to the north. 

This is turn, could keep water temperatures above normal in the Great Lakes, Hudson Bay, and the myriad of lakes in Quebec and Ontario.  Chances are these bodies of water will also start to freeze over later than usual, too.  This is especially true if the warm pattern holds into November.

That could mean a very cloudy early winter here in Vermont.  When it's relatively cold, moisture rises from the comparatively warm waters, which make the skies over the Northeast and southeast Canada very cloudy.  The very weak sun of November and December can't do much to disperse those clouds.

The cloudiness, if it happens, would also tend to produce frequent bouts of light snow and flurries here in Vermont during the early winter.  There would also be a greater chance of heavier lake effect snows downwind of the larger lakes, especially in western New York.  

Not Just Us: Already, Another Global Summer Of Extreme Heat, Fires

Water beads up on a clematis in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden today after a pre-dawn thunderstorm. The storm
only deposited a quarter inch of rain, so drought 
worries will linger, even as cooler air blows
in to Vermont today and tongiht. 

The record heat that gripped Vermont the past few days was thankfully short-lived, and we have a pretty extended period of comfortable weather to look forward to.

However, across the Northern Hemisphere, this is shaping up to be another climate changed, torrid summer, with many more records sure to fall. 

It's only the first half of June, and already, some terrible heat waves have hit disparate places.  

We're in for a long, smoky summer.  Smoky, because huge wildfires inevitably come with the heat waves and droughts across vast northern and mid-latitude forests.

The hot spell here in Vermont was certainly impressive, bringing us the toastiest readings for so early in the season. 

Relief is at hand. Today will be another warm one here in Vermont, but you'll notice the humidity dropping pretty quickly. 

As of 6 a.m. dew points in Vermont were still near 70, pretty oppressive. But the dew point in Montreal had already crashed to 55 degrees and in Quebec City the dew point was a refreshing 48 degrees. That's the kind of air that's about to come toward us.

A final band of showers and thunderstorms was working its way southeastward across Vermont at dawn. Some spots got a little needed rain yesterday in southern Vermont and before dawn today in northern areas.

There was actually a flash flood warning in effect in parts of southeastern Vermont for a time Tuesday due to some torrential rains there. 

Early this morning, Burlington picked up 0.28 inches of rain, which really isn't much at all, but it was still the wettest day since May 5 - over a month! 

There are no signs of more hot weather for at least the next 10 days around here, but that doesn't mean lots of other places will avoid it. Heat is already the story of this young summer

WESTERN "DEATH RIDGE"

The heat is sloshing  back to the western United States, where another "death ridge" as I and others call it lately, is going to envelop the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain West.  This not-so-scientifically named "death ridge" is an enormous, stubborn northward bulge in the jet stream.

Underneath a summer death ridge, droughts rapidly intensify as temperatures records break under relentless sunshine. 

In the Midwest and Great Lakes the heat wave that grabbed at us in New England started last Friday, and with the "death ridge" building, it's going to stay wicked hot in the Intermountain West and Plains. 

This dry heat will probably break more record highs out west, and worsen the drought, and the wildfire situation. 

I think I mentioned it was 106 degrees the other day in North Dakota, by far a record for so early in the season, so you know that state, often an icebox, is wilting.  Since the heat is sloshing back out that way, much of the western and northern Plains are in for an extended period of torrid condition. 

Tuesday was the sixth consecutive day over 90 degrees in Minneapolis. They'll have two more hot days to go before temperatures temporarily "cool" into the upper 80s. 

In Sioux Falls, South Dakota, the 90 degree heat started June 3 and escalated to 101 by June 5.  It'll be probably be in the 90s there every day through most of next week except for perhaps a break on Friday.

It's always hot in the Desert Southwest this time of year, but the  "death ridge' will really pile things on.  Phoenix should get into the mid one hundred teens early next week. Death Valley will have little trouble hitting 120 degrees. 

The United States isn't the only place that's broiling. 

GLOBAL HOT SPOTS

 As in most recent summers, pockets of extremely hot weather are popping up across much of the Northern Hemisphere. This year, it's getting an early start.

Some areas of the Middle East and Central Asia just suffered through the worst heat on record for so early in the season. In the United Arab Emirates it got up to 125.2 degrees, the hottest on record for that nation. It equals the national record set in July, 2017.  According to @extremetemps on Twitter, a city in Iran hit 51 C..  In Turkmenistan, it as 46.7 degrees. It was as hot as 44.7 in Uzbekisgan and 43.7 in Tajikistan.  

FIRES AND DROUGHT

All this heat is naturally helping fuel wildfires.  

There have been periodic forest fire alerts in the north woods of Minnesota for days, and that's expected to continue.  A wildfire in Arizona expanded dramatically over the weekend, forcing evacuation in and near the town of Superior. 

A bigger concern is the West Coast and Intermountain West, which is in the grips of a severe drought. Wildfire alerts have become a daily occurrence out there, and that's no going to change. Probably for the rest of the summer. 

Water shortages are becoming critical in the Southwest.  The dry heat expected over the next week or more exacerbates evaporation, and increases the use of water by us humans. 

Lake Oroville, a reservoir in northern California is almost
empty due to drought.  Trees on the left are scorched and
dead due to a wildfire last year. Photo by 
Noah Berger/AP

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in seven states. Lake Mead, the reservoir behind the famous Hoover Dam on the Colorado River,  is at just 37 percent capacity, says CBS News. 

More from CBS:

"Since 2000, Lake Mead has dropped 130 feet, about the height of a 13-story building. Islands in the lake that used to be completely submerged are now visible." 

By late summer, many areas of California, Nevada and Arizona will have cuts in water allocation for consumers, mostly farmers, due to this mega-drought.

Further north at Lake Oroville in California, the reservoir is only at 39 percent capacity and dropping.  This after a winter in which precipitation fell short by over a foot.  The dam at Lake Oroville might have to stop generating hydro power later this summer due to the low water level. To underscore the point, trees along much of the lake's shore are scorched and dead, victims of a wildfire last summer. 

New wildfires in California are inevitable this summer. They'll start any minute now.

Meanwhile, satellite images caught large wild fires already burning, very early in the season, north of the Arctic Circle in Siberia.   California vegetation is ready to explode into flames, and parts of Canada are a tinderbox, too.

And though we are about to start a pretty good stretch of comfortable weather here in Vermont, there's no telling whether we will have even bigger, longer, hotter heat waves than the one we just had once we get into July and August.

The way things are going, that's a real threat.

It Wasn't Just United States: Mideast Slammed By Winter, Too

Snow covers old artillery equipment in Syria last week.
Photo by Ariel Schalit/AP

 While many Americans were freezing their tushes off in our record cold snap, people in the Mideast were experiencing basically the same. 

It might not have been as bad there as in the United States, but it was still fairly impressive

Snow covered much of Syria and Lebanon, closing roads and schools, though a Premier League soccer tournament went on in Damascus, despite snow covering the pitch. 

It snowed for the first time in years in Marjayoun in southern Lebanon and in Bayda in northeast Libya, according to ABC News.

The storm, which abruptly ended a warm spell, brought heavy rains, gales and storm surges to many coastal areas. In Lebanon, beachside buildings were submerged in waves as high as 13 feet.   

This episode of wintry weather in the Mideast last week was not nearly as wild as what happened in the United States. But it was partly caused by the same issue. 

A sudden warming in the stratosphere more than a month ago disrupted the polar vortex and broke it apart.   This helped create a very wavy jet stream that in some sections of the world, allowed Arctic air to plunge much further south than usual.