Friday, November 6, 2020

Forecasters Were Right About Zombie Eta

Once-Hurricane Eta is expected to be reborn and 
possibly become a tropical storm threat in South
Florida and perhaps the Gulf Coast states.
Hurricane Eta, as we well know, unleashed some terrible flooding on Nicaragua and Honduras this week.

The storm has killed at least 57 people in Central America, and to me it looks like unfortunately, that toll is certain to rise.  

The only "good" news is this won't be as bad as Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which is believed to have killed 11,000 people in the same region. 

There's more evidence today that Eta is not done yet. 

The center of Eta's remains poked back out into the western Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Honduras overnight.  

Thunderstorms are once again firing around the center of what is now a tropical depression.  A reborn Tropical Storm Eta now seems inevitable. Zombie Eta is about to arrive.

Eta will never again reach the intensity it had as a monster Category 4 hurricane when it hit Nicaragua a few days ago.  There's too many complicating factors, like wind shear aloft, interaction with land, and a broad circulation in Eta that will take time to get its act together. 

But Eta will be over very warm water, so it will intensify into a pretty strong tropical storm. There's even an outside chance it could become a hurricane again.  Intensity forecasts are tricky with tropical systems, and this one is no exception 

Once again in this busy Atlantic tropical storm season, the United States looks like it's in play.  Eta will head northeastward and hit Cuba toward Sunday.

From there, things might get a little weird.  A storm in the upper atmosphere in the western Gulf of Mexico seems like it wants to pull Eta north toward the southern tip of Florida, then westward into the central Gulf of Mexico. From there, who knows?

November tropical storms do have some trouble surviving north of the Caribbean, due to stronger upper level winds this time of year. But they do happen. It's still hurricane season. 

At this point, Eta looks like it will never again be a powerful wind maker.  But it certainly has a shot of unleashing some nasty floods on southern Florida, which has already had a very soggy autumn.  Stay tuned! 

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