Big Storm Will (Eventually) Plunge Us Into Winter

Forecast map for next Tuesday shows a large storm
over the eastern United States. This will mark a pattern
shift that will truly introduce winter to our 
neck of the woods.

We here in Vermont lately have been getting quick tastes of winter, followed quickly by the usual damp, cool, but not wintry November weather. 

That state of affairs will continue for a few more days, but real winter is coming for sure. Very likely next week.

A pattern change, especially this time of year when we expect a transition to winter, is usually heralded by a big storm that whips the pieces of the puzzle into shape. 

Lo and behold, a big storm is about to form.  It'll start to take shape in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday, and then blow up into a really strong storm that ride northward along the western slopes of the Appalachians.

While details are still to be worked out, it looks like a lot of rain and wind is in store for the Great Lakes and eastern United States. There could be a decent amount of snow to the west. 

For us, the path of the storm will initially make things quite mild for us to start the week.  And probably wet. And windy.  At this point the heaviest rain looks like it will go up through the eastern half of New England, but we'll get our share. 

This storm will snap the weather pattern into a new configuration, one with a pretty deep dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the United States.

With the storm to our west, colder air will oddly start to work in from the south, not the north mid week. That's because the icy air will need to head south from Canada to the west of the storm, then wrap around the bottom of the storm then come back up from the southwest, starting Tuesday night.

It won't be particularly cold at first, but the chill will deepen as we head toward the end of next week.  The orientation of the dip in the jet stream suggests it's possible - certain not definite but possible - that it could make create decent snow-making nor'easter for us. 

Unlike the quick cold spells we've had this month that only last a day or two, the wintry weather will last longer. It will be December, after all.  Also, any cold weather we get toward the end of next week doesn't look earth-shattering. It'll be just pretty much the kind of conditions we expect in December.

We of course don't know whether this will turn into hard core winter for the rest of the season, or we will have mild spells worked in as well.  

Real winter usually settles into Vermont in early December. This year, it looks to be right on schedule.