More Data On How A Warm Arctic Can Make Us Colder Where We Live (Sometimes)

Destruction from a bizarre October ice storm in Oklahoma.
Is Arctic warmth helping to create strange, intense cold
spells in the United States? Researchers are looking into it.
Photo by Chris Landsberger/The Oklahoman

 I've seen and mentioned this before, but there is growing, but not totally conclusive evidence that the rapid warming of the Arctic is giving us shots of super cold air.  

This, despite an overall warming trend. 

According to Inside Climate News:

"...even though the Arctic only encompasses about 6 percent of the Earth's surface area, the warming there has kicked off climate chain reactions that are disrupting weather and climate patterns across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere including most major North American and European cities and agricultural areas."

A study about four years ago found a link between a "warm Arctic and cold continents. Says Inside Climate News: 

"The authors said their research showed that, from 1990 to 2016, severe winter weather became more frequent in the eastern United States 'when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper atmosphere and lower stratosphere.'"

This doesn't always happen. The Arctic was remarkably warm during the middle of this month. Warm enough to stun climate watchers.  But there were no corresponding extreme cold temperatures in North America, Europe or Asia.

There were cold snaps here and there in these mid-latitudes, but nothing especially wild for mid-November.

In addition to that, if it's cold somewhere on a continent, it's warm elsewhere. Record warmth enveloped the eastern United States, including here in Vermont, during early November. 

Still, I see anecdotal evidence of these extreme cold spells with the Arctic warmth,  locally and across the nation. 

The past three years have certainly been warmer than average around here. Still, there have been some remarkable cold waves.  

The year 2018 in Burlington is tied for sixth warmest on record. Still, the earliest subzero reading on record in Burlington hit on November 23, 2018.  November, 2019 had the earliest single digit readings on record for the same city. The year overall was warmer than average. 

Nationally, an intense cold wave gripped the West and central parts of the nation in late October this year. The coldest reading on record for the nation in October - 29 below- occurred in Montana this year. A bizarre, destructive ice storm hit Oklahoma in October at a time of year when normal high temperatures are near 70 degrees in that part of the nation. 

It's interesting that many of these super cold waves have occurred in the autumn or very early winter.  That's when the Arctic is just starting to freeze up.  But in recent years, there has been much more open, unfroze water up there compared to historic levels, because of the warming. This is especially true before things freeze up over the winter. 

Large sections of the Arctic Ocean are remaining ice free further into the autumn than in the past. These open waters help warm the atmosphere over the part of the Earth north of the Arctic Circle.  That, in turn, might mess up the jet stream and displace frigid air way south. Like in places such as the United States or Europe. 

Is that warm air and warm open water really screwing with the jet stream?  Clearly, more research is needed - and ongoing - to pin down this possible link between Arctic warmth and these occasional, punishing bitter cold snaps. 

These intense cold spells we're talking about are relatively short, almost always lasting just days or at most a few weeks. Overall, it's getting warmer in the mid-latitudes, where most of us live. It's just that the warmth is punctuated by some impressive cold spells. 

I've heard some pundits say it's not entirely accurate to say we're undergoing global warming. Maybe, to be more accurate, we could call it global weirding. 

The scientists say we can expect more extremes in a warming world. These weird frigid spells might be part of this "weirding."