Waiting For Snow In Vermont. Also, Warm Winters, But Snowier, Too!

Gloomy November day on the shores of Lake Champlain
near Alburgh Thursday.  Not much snow yet this year in 
Vermont, but the trend has been toward snowier and
warmer winters in recent decades.

It was mild and damp and drizzly when I got up this morning on this so-called Black Friday. 

It's characteristically gloomy out there for this time of year. Since I'm not a big shopper, I'll just call this Gray Friday. 

By the time Thanksgiving comes around and the Christmas rush comes, Vermont is often - but not always - shrouded in snow. 

This year, it doesn't look like it will snow until next week, aside from some possible mountain flurries before then. 

The snow season is off to a slow start, hut that doesn't mean it will stay that way. Especially if trends over the past few decades continue. 

Looking at records in Burlington, Vermont, winters have been becoming both warmer and snowier. We ca expect winters in Burlington on average to bring us somewhere around 75 to 80 inches of snow.  Obviously, we never had that much on the ground, because there's always mild spells that melt it. And the snow settles even if it stays below freezing. 

It seems odd that winters are warmer AND snowier in general, but if you think about it, this all sort of makes sense. 

Climate change is bringing us warmer winters.  A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture than colder air. This wetter atmosphere can wring out more moisture in the form of precipitation if a storm happens along. 

Climate change does not cancel winter. So if these wetter storms blow in when the temperature is below freezing, you get a lot of snow. 

In Burlington's records, four of the snowiest winters on record were since the year 2000.  Also, five of the top 10 warmest winters, including all of the top four warmest, were also since the year 2000.

None of these years were simultaneously one of the warmest and one of the snowiest, but we do clearly see that trend toward snowier and warmer.  

Buried vehicles in my driveway during the Pi Day 
Blizzard of March, 2017.  Individual Vermont snowstorms
have been trending larger in recent decades.

The culprit seems at least in part due to bigger individual storms, and perhaps not as much consistent snowfall all winter. This falls in line with the "wetter atmosphere, wetter storms" theory I gave earlier in this post. 

Ten out of Burlington's top biggest snowstorms have occurred since  the year 2000. Remember, records there date back to the 1880s.  Only three of the top 20 greatest snowstorms came before the mid-1960s.

There will always be exceptions to this heavier snow rule. Last winter brought us 71.9 inches of snow, a little below average. The winter of 2011-12 was the third least snowiest in Burlington, with only 37.7 inches.

Plus, with the warmer winters, any big snows we get tend to melt pretty quickly. 

We have no idea how this winter will work out.  Burlington's snowfall of 2.7 inches this month is roughly half of normal, but that can be easily more than made up during the course of the winter, depending upon weather patterns.

Just because it's snow-free now, doesn't mean it will stay that way.