Wannabe Tropical Storm Alex Sputters, Still Drowns South Florida

Satellite view of the mess that is wannabe Tropical Storm
Alex this morning flooding South Florida. It's not 
organized enough to be declared an official tropical storm.

Be glad you're not in or near Miami this morning. 

Torrential rains already amounting to up to nine inches from wannabe Tropical Storm Alex have flooded countless streets, highways and underpasses in South Florida.  One more round of torrential rain was moving the the Miami-Dade area as I write this around 6:30 this morning. 

Notice I'm calling the storm wannabe Tropical Storm Alex and not actually a tropical storm. 

As of early this morning, the National Hurricane Center says the system has top winds of 40 mph.  Winds need to be 39 mph to declare a tropical storm, so this qualifies, right?  Plus, South Florida is under a tropical storm warning. So Alex it is, you'd think. 

Not in this case. A tropical storm must have a closed circulation. In other words, the winds need to be going in a counterclockwise circle around a defined storm center. This mess of a tropical system does not have such a center.

Instead, as of early this morning, the "storm" was just a chaotic collection of torrential thunderstorms in the Bahamas, Florida and Cuba. Those top winds of 40 mph were just in a few isolated areas. This is as far as you can get from a neat, circular tropical storm.   

High winds aloft have been blowing away any attempts by wannabe Alex to organize into a tropical storm. There's still a chance it could become a tropical storm later today once this mess gets past South Florida, we'll see.

For Floridians, it doesn't matter whether this is an official tropical storm or not.  The effects are the same. They don't have much wind with this system, but boy is it raining! As noted, it's hard to drive anywhere in or near Miami early today there's so much water.  I'm sure a lot of homes and businesses are taking on water, too. 

After wannabe Alex finishes with Florida today, it will continue on a northeastward path out to sea. It eventually will just become a remnant low way out over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.  This storm will have no effect on our weather here in Vermont. 

In fact, up here in the North Country, we're having a nice weekend. Some scattered showers and thundershowers will pop up this afternoon in the Northeast Kingdom and Connecticut River Valley. (That's the same area scattered storms focused on Friday).

Still, the sun will be out much of the time today. Sunday looks pretty sunny, too. Daytime highs will bei in the near normal low 70s, while tonight will be on the crisp side again (mostly 40s).

Hurricane Season Might Be Getting Off To A Fast Start

Satellite photo from showing United States, Mexico, the 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. That mess
of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico could become 
Tropical Storm Alex.

 Officially, the hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean side of North America begins today, June 1, and there's already a tropical storm threat to talk about. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.  If it does form, it appears it's poised to give Florida  and Cuba an absolute drenching. 

At least a half foot of rain is forecast in both places, which of course could lead to some pretty nasty flooding. 

If this thing develops into a tropical storm, they'll name it Alex. It'll probably fall short of becoming a full-fledged hurricane, as strong upper level winds are and will be interfering with its development. That's typical early in the hurricane season.  

Usually upper level winds are stronger and ocean temperatures are cooler in June than in, say, August.  That's why early season storms are usually (but not always!) weaker than the powerhouse hurricanes later in the summer and early autumn. 

That said, there's two factors that are helping wannabe Alex.  Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Plus, wannabe Alex is getting energy from what once was Hurricane Agatha.

On the Pacific Ocean side of North America, hurricane season starts May 15, and we've already had our first hurricane. This was definitely an exception to the rule that June tropical systems are weak.

Agatha was the strongest landfalling hurricane in May with winds of at least 105 mph when it came ashore a couple days ago in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It killed at least 11 people and 20 people are still missing after the flooding and mudslides caused by Agatha. 

Agatha fell apart over the mountains of southern Mexico as all landfalling hurricanes lose steam over land. But its remnant energy is feeding into the disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, which could help wannabe Alex get its act together. 

If wannabe Alex develops into a tropical storm, it won't be the earliest on record. Despite the fact that hurricane season officially starts on June 1, there have been tropical storms in May. There has even been three Atlantic Ocean tropical storms recorded in April, the most recent being in 2017.   

The National Hurricane Center predict this year will be another very busy one in the Atlantic Ocean, due to a number of factors. Those include a continuing La Nina global weather pattern and ocean temperatures that are mostly running warmer than normal.