Hurricane Helene Will Be Category 4 Monster At Landfall Later This Evening

Satellite photo of Hurricane Helene as of around 5 p.m.
today is a classic example of an extremely powerful
and strengthening hurricane. Note the small eye with
the nearly perfectly circular core. 

Hurricane Helene, which was steadily getting stronger last night and this morning, picked up the pace of its growing power this afternoon, and that will make the scary forecast scenarios come true.

As of 5 p.m. Hurricane Helene had top winds of 125 mph, up from 105 mph late this morning. It's now a Category 3 storm. 

Oops. That just got outdated in the middle writing this. As of 6:30, winds had increased to 130 mph, so now Helene is a category 4 storm. 

All signs point toward more fast strengthening in the few hours it has left over water. 

The National Hurricane Center noted that the eye of the storm has gotten smaller, the powerful thunderstorms around the eye have wrapped fully around that eye, and the storm is over a perfect environment to keep getting more monstrous. 

Satellite photos of Helene late this afternoon showed a perfectly symmetrical core around a well-defined eye. That's a real sign it's getting stronger. 

NHC expects Helene to be possibly a high end a category 4 storm at landfall with perhaps top winds of 145 to 156 mph.

All the awful things we've been talking about with Helene are about to happen. It's already starting with storm surges, tornadoes ahead of the storm and flooding well ahead of the storm up in the southern Appalachians.  

Gusty winds and rain bands are already sweeping Florida. By late afternoon, 130,000 customers were without power already. That will increase exponentially overnight in Florida, Georgia and beyond. 

The storm surges have begun well ahead of Helene, which is ominous. It reminds me of Hurricane Ike in Texas back in September, 2008.  Flooding from high tides began a good 12 hours before the storm hit. Then, when the true center of storm arrived, Bolivar Peninsula was pretty much swept clean by the storm surge. 

A total of 113 people died in Hurricane Ike, which wasn't even as strong as Helene is. 

The storm surge in northwestern Florida, especially in and around Apalachee Bay, is still expected to be up to 20 feet. There are a few people there in the path of the surge that we suspect haven't evacuated, with is a terrible move.  

The Taylor County sheriff's office is reportedly asking those who stay behind to write their name and date of birth on their arm with a permanent marker so their body can be identified after the storm. 

Helene has a forward motion of 23 mph. That's awfully fast for a Gulf of Mexico hurricane. That might make people in and near the area where Helene comes ashore get taken by surprise. The scenario means winds in the Helene target zone probably won't be all that bad into this evening. Then all of a sudden all hell will break loose.

As of 6 p.m., Helene was about 165 miles or so south of Tallahassee. At 6 p.m. winds in that city were from the northeast at 12 gusting to 22 mph. 

Very tame. Within a few hours from now, those breezes will become frightening gales gusting to 110 mph or more. 

Meanwhile, the storm is so large in area that western Florida was being battered by high winds even though the storm is centered 100 miles or more offshore. Sarasota, Florida was gusting to 67 mph as of 6 p.m. Most other southwestern and western Florida cities were seeing winds gusting over 50 mph

The strongest winds overnight will occur in a fairly narrow swath through Tallahassee, then Macon, Georgia and just to the east of Atlanta. 

Macon, far from the coast, can expect wind gusts to 90 mph late tonight and tomorrow. Areas east of Atlanta could easily see gusts approach 80 mph.

Expected high wind forecasts keep punching further and further inland. A high wind warning is now up for southeastern Kentucky, where expected gusts will be over 60 mph. Wind advisories for gusts to 50 mph now extend all the way to northwestern Indiana and eastern Illinois. 

The forecast hasn't changed for the cataclysmic flooding expected in the southern Appalachians. 

 This post probably comes off as scattered and disorganized. It is. This, more than most hurricanes I remember, has so many rapidly changing, moving, wide ranging parts and it's hard to keep straight. 

All I know is godspeed to the people in the path of Hurricane Helene. It's going to be a long, tragic night in Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians tonight. And that will continue through Friday.