Soon To Be Hurricane Helene Big Threat To Florida, Gulf Coast, Southeast

This is one computer model's version of what
soon to be Hurricane Helene might look like off
the west coast of Florida Thursday morning.
This model takes the storm northward to hit
Florida's Big Bend, where the panhandle curves
to start forming the main Florida peninsula. 

UPDATE 1 PM Tuesday.

As expected, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene as of 11 a.m today.

The forecast for it hasn't changed much since this morning. 

It should be a hurricane by sometime tomorrow morning as it begins to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

The only question now is how big it will get, how strong it will get and how much it maintains its strength by the time it hits land, probably in northwest Florida later Thursday.

Stay tuned!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

What will become Hurricane Helene is now a big threat to the United States Gulf Coast, especially Florida this week.   

Early this morning, what will almost surely be Hurricane Helene within the next couple of days was still something of a disorganized mess in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 

 It hadn't formed a well-defined center yet, so before dawn it was still awkwardly called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

As I wrote this post early today, hurricane hunter planes were invading the developing storm, poking and prodding it for clues as to what it will do and when.

Even before those hurricane hunters went in today, forecasters have a pretty good broad brush idea on wannabe Helene's growing danger. 

This was already a large area of stormy weather. Upper level winds, which were slightly hindering development, should quit today. The stage is set for this thing to quickly turn into a monster.

Steering currents in the atmosphere should take the developing system northward and a quickening pace.

The National Hurricane Center expects the growing storm to squeeze itself between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba tomorrow morning and early afternoon so that it ends up in the Gulf of Mexico.

Even if the center of the storm clips Cancun or western Cuba, that would only very briefly disrupt its growth. It'll have plenty of resources to strengthen as it approaches the eastern Gulf Coast. 

The gulf waters are extremely warm, at near record levels. There's the jet fuel for a growing hurricane.  Upper level winds at this point shouldn't hinder its growth much, if at all. The fear is what is now Wannabe Helene will become major Hurricane Helene by the time it comes ashore Thursday night. 

"The potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing," the National Hurricane Center said last evening. 

Dawn breaking this morning on what will be Hurricane
Helene. Looks disorganized now, but those hot white 
clouds are the thunderstorms that should fuel
it's fast development today and tomorrow.

It's looking like Helene will be large, covering a big area. That would make problems like storm surges and high winds worse and more widespread than if this was a more compact storm. 

Helene would be the fifth hurricane to hit Florida since 2022, so that state has really been battered lately. This won't help.

That a major hurricane seems likely in Florida in just over 48 hours doesn't give people a lot of time to prepare. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 41 counties and the state has activated its price gouging hotline.

They're trying to prevent retailers from upping prices on necessary supplies that people are rushing to buy ahead of the storm. 

I'm sure we'll hear news of evacuations from coastal parts of Florida later today. 

Although forecasters are confident Helene will end up being a pretty strong hurricane and it's most likely to hit land in northwestern Florida, there are picky little details that could change things. Or at least clarify things in the next couple of days before landfall.

Anyone from Biloxi, Mississippi eastward through Florida should be nervous. It could also trend further east and hit western Florida. It would be particularly bad if it comes ashore near Tampa, as the hurricane would shove an incredible amount of destructive storm surge into Tampa Bay. 

There's also questions of how strong this will be. It seems very likely that at landfall, wannabe Helene would have top winds of at least 115 mph with a storm surge of eight feet.

Worst case scenario would be if this thing ends up being like Hurricane Michael in 2018.  That one kept strengthening to a category 5 with top winds of 160 mph when it hit shore a little east of Panama City, Florida. 

INLAND THREAT

As all hurricanes do, what will be Helene's intense winds will quickly diminish right after it comes ashore.  However, Helene's fast forward speed would allow strong winds to punch pretty far inland to cause damage well away from the coast.

It kind of reminds me a little of Hurricane Hugo in 1989. It hit Charleston, South Carolina and surroundings with devastating force. It was moving so quickly forward that Hugo still managed to cause highly destructive winds around Charlotte, North Carolina, which is a good 200 miles inland.  

The remains of Hugo even managed to produce winds strong enough to produce  quite a few power outages here in Vermont. I remember an odd scene it created around midnight at Burlington's north beach. Hot air brought to Vermont made temperatures that night soar to 80 degrees. We bodysurfed in three to four foot waves generated by the winds as power flashes lit up the sky here and there as trees fell onto electrical lines.

I bring that up just to demonstrate how hurricanes can cause weird and damaging effects far from their landfall spot.

Anyway, an upper level low in the Mid-South seems likely to capture the dying hurricane and spread large areas of torrential rains over swaths of the Southeast. At this point, it looks like the southern Appalachians are most under the gun for serious flooding late this week and the weekend, though that forecast could change a bit. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Unlike Hurricane Hugo in 1989, it's starting to look like Helene won't bother us much here in Vermont, if at all.

Strong high pressure, mostly centered over southeast Canada, has blocked any kind of real storminess from reaching the Green Mountain State since around September 8.

The high pressure will temporarily withdraw somewhat for the next couple of days, allowing some needed rain to move into the Green Mountain State tomorrow and Thursday. This rain is completely unrelated to Helene, and will not be especially heavy.

Then, that persistent high pressure will reassert itself, once again acting as roadblock preventing the remains of Helene from pestering us. 

We've already had two former hurricanes - Beryl and Debby - cause quite a bit of havoc in Vermont this year, so it's nice that - fingers crossed! - Helene will leave us completely alone.