Just great.
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| Eastern equine encephalitis, spread by certain mosquito breeds is in Vermont. Climate change increases the risk that this dangerous disease would be present. |
THE EEE OUTBREAK
Eastern equine encephalitis, or EEE is here. It's still a pretty rare disease, but it's often fatal or permanently debilitating to its victims.
A New Hampshire man has died of the disease, and another person in Vermont's Chittenden County tested positive for EEE.
The virus is turning up in lots of mosquito samples, especially in northwestern Vermont. Residents of several towns in that part of the state are being told to stay indoors from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. to avoid possibly infected mosquitoes.
This whole thing is getting pretty disruptive.
Big outdoor events are being canceled. In Burlington, the sold out Oktoberfest on the waterfront, which had been scheduled for September 20 and 21, has been canceled over EEE fears. Ticket holders for that event are in the process of being refunded.
Also in Burlington, Summervale, a weekly food and entertainment event in the Intervale, canceled its final two days on August 29 and September 5 due to the threat.
The Intervale is along the delta of the Winooski River right before it enters Lake Champlain. The Winooski flooded this summer, leaving many pools of standing water which bred mosquitoes. I did a little volunteer work with flood recovery at one of the farms down there in late July. I could NOT believe how thick the clouds of mosquitoes were.
Schools in the communities that are high alert - think Colchester, Burlington, Swanton, Alburgh - are trying to move games and matches to safer areas.
Other outdoor events are looking for indoor alternate spaces.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Our warming world does not cause EEE. A virus does.
But climate change creates the conditions in which the disease can get a foothold and spread.
Grist reports that climate change is a major driver of the disease, especially in the Northeast. That's for a variety of reasons.
Earlier last frost of the season in the spring and later first autumn frosts give mosquitoes a longer window in which to breed. (The last time Burlington had subfreezing temperatures was on April 26).
Hot, humid summers encourage mosquitoes as that makes their metabolism rise, so they'll want to feed more. We just got through our third hottest summer and by many measures the most humid on record.
Finally, heavier rains create more mosquitoes. We just got through one of our rainiest summers on record. The more rain you get, and fewer dry spells in between the showers, the more stagnant pools of water you get. That's where mosquitoes breed. It doesn't help that rivers and streams flooded back in July. As those floodwaters receded, they left big pools of standing water. Perfect for those little buggers to multiply.
The hot summer made those pools of water warm, which reduces the incubation period for the type of mosquito that spreads EEE. Shorter incubation periods mean more mosquitoes.
Additionally, warmer winters can make some mosquito species survive more effectively. Last winter was the warmest in record in the Champlain Valley.
This year's EEE problem in Vermont will go away when the first hard freeze hits later this fall. Of course, we don't know know exactly when that might happen.
But climate change is working against us even there. A warmer world increases the chances that are first big subfreezing cold blast of the autumn will hit later than it historically did. Last year, Burlington didn't have its first freeze of the season until Halloween. That was the latest or second latest initial freeze of the season on record, depending on whether you consider where the temperature was recorded.
EEE tends to come and go in multi-year waves. But climate change helps increase the likelihood of future outbreaks, since the world - and Vermont - will continue to warm.
Maybe this year will buck the trend and give us an early freeze. We can only hope. Meanwhile, wear long sleeves and pants, and pass the bug spray, please.
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