Long Dry Spell Set To Begin In Vermont/Most Of Northeast

Dark rain clouds approach St. Albans Bay, Vermont on
Saturday, Sept. 7. The resulting downpours will have been
the last substantial rain we'll get for possibly two
weeks or more. 

 After what has been a rather wet year, especially the summer, it turns out September is looking like it will be quite a dry month here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast. 

Dry, despite the burst of drenching rain we had Saturday. 

The overall pattern features a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northeast and southeast Canada, perhaps to near the end of the month, according so some forecasts.

If that holds, the next couple of weeks will feature mostly warmer than  normal temperatures and especially less rainy than usual. Perhaps much less rain than we usually see. 

Some Final Showers

Before we get there, one last disturbance associated with the cool shot we just experienced will come through today. Unlike yesterday, when it was cold enough for rime ice and snow flurries atop Whiteface Mountain in New York, it will be warmer, so it won't seem so October-like under those showers. 

Like yesterday, though, the scattered showers this afternoon and early evening should be light. They'll amount to a quarter inch at most, but most of us should see something like a tenth of an inch of rain, if that. 

Warm, Dry Week, No "Francine" Here

After today, the high pressure takes over big time, ensuring dry weather the rest of the week and a waring trend. By the second half of the week, some of us will be back up in the low 80s again. 

Meanwhile, after a long break in the Atlantic Ocean is finally once again beginning to bubble with tropical troubles.  

The most immediate problems is a big disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that will probably become Tropical Storm Francine later today. 

A field of golden rods in Georgia, Vermont glows in brief
sunshine Sunday. Golden rods - and everything else in 
Vermont - will enjoy lots of sun most days for 
the next couple weeks. 

Wannabe Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north and northeastward through the western Gulf of Mexico this week. 

It'll probably smack into the Louisiana coast Wednesday or Thursday. People will need to be on their toes in the that neck of the woods, because wannabe Francine could strengthen pretty fast and catch people off guard. 

Sometimes, the remains of former Gulf Coast hurricanes end up in New England as pretty good rain makers, but it doesn't look like that will be the case this time. At least so far. 

While I suppose it's possible some moisture from what will be a former hurricane could make it this way, chances look strong that our strong high pressure will deflect most or all of that wetness away from us. 

Beyond This Week

Forecasts always get dicier the further out in the future you try to predict, so what you'll read next is so not cast in stone. 

But here goes: 

At times the center of the high pressure in higher layers of the atmosphere might be a little to our west. That could invite a back door cold front or two to come our way. 

They're called back door because they come at us from the east and northeast instead of the usual west or northwest.

These fronts usually tend to be dry, and cause only clouds or just very light showers.  One such front might come through this coming Sunday or Monday. If it does, it might  temper the warmth some over Vermont, but the coldest air with these would probably hit Atlantic Canada or possibly Maine. 

I'll be surprised if that front gives any more than a trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain 

Beyond that, those long range forecasts are pretty consistent with keeping the mostly high pressure over us to possibly near the final week of September.

I'm not worried about this dry weather getting into a drought. There's plenty of moisture in the ground given the summer we've had.  In the autumn, things don't dry out as quickly as they do amid the strong sun in the height of summer. 

Who knows? This long dry spell, as pleasant as it will be, might also actually protect us. If some sort of former tropical system comes our way in the final days of September or in October, the rain would fall on dry soil and with rivers running low.  That would make it harder for Vermont to endure another desperately unwanted flood.