Tropical Storm Francine Forms; Will Be A Hurricane

Tropical Storm Francine was beginning to have
"that look" that suggests a potential formidable
hurricane as it organized early Monday afternoon
off the northeastern coast of Mexico.

 That Gulf of Mexico system I mentioned in this morning's post did what I said it would do: It became Tropical Storm Francine.    

It was organizing pretty fast off the coast of northeastern Mexico as of early afternoon. It will head north to northeast while gaining muscle.  It might actually strengthen pretty fast, given the near record hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico that are feeding the system. 

There's not much in the way of strong winds high in the sky over the top of Francine, either, which will help it blossom further. Stronger upper level winds, called shear, tends to interfere with hurricanes.  Since there's not much shear, Francine is free to gain more power. 

The pace at which Francine was strengthening and organizing early this afternoon seems a little faster than earlier forecasts, which feels a little ominous. 

Francine should end up along the coast of southwestern Louisiana, probably around Wednesday evening. Determining how strong a hurricane will be at landfall a couple days in advance is always a chancy proposition. 

Current thinking has it maybe with top wind speeds of 90 mph.  One potential saving grace is that stronger winds aloft are forecast to develop at the time Francine is approaching the coast. That, hopefully, would squelch its efforts to intensify.  

Still, people in Louisiana had better stay on their toes with this one, as damaging winds, dangerous storm surges and inland flooding are all very much on the table.

Once Francine goes inland, its strong winds will diminish quickly, but it will remain a flood threat with heavy rains in the lower Mississippi Valley. 

At this point, the strong high pressure I highlighted this morning over the Northeast should deflect the remnants of Francine away from Vermont. Not a guarantee on that, but that's really the way it looks now.

Francine ends a long pause in tropical storm and hurricane activity that had been unexpected. Atlantic hurricane season this year has been widely expected to be a doozy. 

It certainly got off to rousing start with three hurricanes by mid-August. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 on record. Debby caused damage in Florida and on up the East Coast. The remnants of both Beryl and Debby caused flood and/or wind damage here in Vermont.

Ernesto hit Bermuda in August.  It eventually died on August 20 over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, and there had strangely been no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic until Francine formed this morning. 

The National Hurricane Center is also watching two other disturbances that have a pretty high chance of turning into tropical storms. One of them is in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and another one seems like it might get going in a few days off the western African coast.

It's still way too early to figure out what those two systems might end up doing or where they'll go. Despite the long, welcome lull in tropical storms that just ended, this could still end up being a pretty busy hurricane season.