Warm Vermont Day Continues 2024 Trend That Could Exceed Last Year As Hottest

Our flowering hibiscus tree along with the tropical
orange trees, calla lilies and agapanthus not pictured
here, continue to thrive in late summer warmth
on our St. Albans, Vermont deck. The year is
on pace so far to be the warmest on record.

 It made it to 81 degrees in Burlington, Vermont Thursday as we enjoyed another blue sky, wall to wall sunshine September day. 

Although that reading wasn't odd for the opening week of September, it did continue a trend. We're having a hot year. 

Thursday was the 77th day this year in Burlington in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The only other years I could find with more such days were all recent - 81 days in the 80s during 2020, 83 days in the 80s in 2018 and 85 days in the 80s in 2016.

Although I kind of doubt we'll break that record for most 80s in a single year back in 2016,  It's still possible.We do have a shot at making it to 80 degrees today. And some forecasts get us that warm toward the middle and end of next week.

Though the chances of any given day making it to 80 will being falling steeply as we head through autumn, such warmth is possible into October. The latest 80 degree day on record was October 25. 1963.  And who knows? With climate change, we will probably one day break that latest 80 record. We came close in 2022 when it was 78 degrees on October 26.

Year to date so far during 2023 in Burlington is also the hottest on record. I don't know whether the entire year will exceed last year as the city's hottest year on record. It all depends on whether if the warm trend of 2024 continues through December. 

Long range forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, for what they're worth, continue to indicate a warmer than average temperatures more often than not through December.  

Still, there's an excellent chance 2024 will be among the top ten warmest years. Due to ties, there are 13 years in Burlington's top ten warmest. If this year joins the top ten list, that means all of Burlington's warmest years will be since1998.  Which isn't that long ago, considering the temperature records go back to the 1880s. 

Also, the top six warmest years in Burlington have all happened since 2012. 

Colder than normal weather is still always possible.  We'll see the occasional chilly month or season from time to time.

It's the roll of the dice. But the dice are now loaded by climate change, so the odds now always favor warmer weather than the type we had in the 20th century. 

As I always keep saying, this isn't your grandfather's climate.