Hurricane Francine To Smack Louisiana This Evening With Intense Winds, Storm Surge, Flooding

Satellite view of Hurricane Francine late this morning.

UPDATE: 5:30 p.m. EDT

Hurricane Francine managed to strengthen a little bit late this afternoon shortly before making landfall in Louisiana. 

Top sustained winds were 100 mph as of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

This despite increasing upper level winds which tend to weaken hurricanes.

The storm should come ashore this evening, with those 100 mph. Francine has pretty much run out of time to either strengthen or weaken. 

As of late this afternoon, winds were increasing and storm surges were moving in along the Louisiana coast. 

Expect a rough evening in Louisiana.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The forecast for Hurricane Francine has so far turned out to be accurate as the storm bears down on Louisiana today. 

At last check, top sustained winds were at 90 mph.  Francine has a brief opportunity to strengthen before stronger upper level winds prevent further gains in power right before landfall. 

Still, this storm will be a big problem for much of Louisiana. Storm surges will rise to as much as ten feet right where the storm comes ashore and just east of that spot. Landfall looks like it will be somewhere near Morgan City, Louisiana late this afternoon or evening. 

Luckily, Francine is no Katrina, so main levees in the most flood prone areas like New Orleans should hold.

However, smaller levees in somewhat less populated areas, or smaller levees elsewhere might get overwhelmed, so there certainly will be some coastal flooding. 

Winds at landfall should still be around 90 mph, but those will diminish quickly once the storm moves inland. However, the risk of flooding won't disappear once Francine is inland. 

The upper level winds that are forecast to hit Francine just before landfall might change the shape of the storm from something circular to more of a comma shape. Areas within that expected "comma" with a feeder band coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, will be most at risk for flash flooding and tornadoes. 

Both New Orleans and Baton Rouge could see rainfall rates of up to four inches per hour in the worst of it.  People in both cities spent Tuesday filling sandbags to at least try and ward off the expected floodwaters. 

Once inland, Francine or its remains will sputter out in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, spreading the risk of some flash flooding in that region later today and tomorrow. 

As I mentioned in an earlier post today, Francine won't have any effect on us up here in Vermont.