Yes. Vermont/Northeast Dangerous EEE Outbreak Likely Influenced By Climate Change

 Just great.

Eastern equine encephalitis, spread by certain mosquito
breeds is in Vermont. Climate change increases the risk
that this dangerous disease would be present. 

Like many Vermonters, I now find myself fearing mosquitoes instead of just being annoyed by them. 

THE EEE OUTBREAK

Eastern equine encephalitis, or EEE is here.  It's still a pretty rare disease, but it's often fatal or permanently debilitating to its victims. 

A New Hampshire man has died of the disease, and another person in Vermont's Chittenden County tested positive for EEE.  

The virus is turning up in lots of mosquito samples, especially in northwestern Vermont. Residents of several towns in that part of the state are being told to stay indoors from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. to avoid possibly infected mosquitoes. 

This whole thing is getting pretty disruptive. 

Big outdoor events are being canceled.  In Burlington, the sold out Oktoberfest on the waterfront, which had been scheduled for September 20 and 21, has been canceled over EEE fears. Ticket holders for that event are in the process of being refunded. 

Also in Burlington, Summervale, a weekly food and entertainment event in the Intervale, canceled its final two days on August 29 and September 5 due to the threat.

The Intervale is along the delta of the Winooski River right before it enters Lake Champlain. The Winooski flooded this summer, leaving many pools of standing water which bred mosquitoes. I did a little volunteer work with flood recovery at one of the farms down there in late July. I could NOT believe how thick the clouds of mosquitoes were. 

Schools in the communities that are high alert - think Colchester, Burlington, Swanton, Alburgh - are trying to move games and matches to safer areas. 

Other outdoor events are looking for indoor alternate spaces. 

CLIMATE CHANGE

Our warming world does not cause EEE. A virus does.

But climate change creates the conditions in which the disease can get a foothold and spread. 

Grist reports that climate change is a major driver of the disease, especially in the Northeast. That's for a variety of reasons. 

Earlier last frost of the season in the spring and later first autumn frosts give mosquitoes a longer window in which to breed. (The last time Burlington had subfreezing temperatures was on April 26).

Hot, humid summers encourage mosquitoes as that makes their metabolism rise, so they'll want to feed more. We just got through our third hottest summer and by many measures the most humid on record. 

Finally, heavier rains create more mosquitoes. We just got through one of our rainiest summers on record. The more rain you get, and fewer dry spells in between the showers, the more stagnant pools of water you get. That's where mosquitoes breed. It doesn't help that rivers and streams flooded back in July. As those floodwaters receded, they left big pools of standing water. Perfect for those little buggers to multiply. 

The hot summer made those pools of water warm, which reduces the incubation period for the type of mosquito that spreads EEE. Shorter incubation periods mean more mosquitoes. 

Additionally, warmer winters can make some mosquito species survive more effectively. Last winter was the warmest in record in the Champlain Valley. 

This year's EEE problem in Vermont will go away when the first hard freeze hits later this fall. Of course, we don't know know exactly when that might happen. 

But climate change is working against us even there. A warmer world increases the chances that are first big subfreezing cold blast of the autumn will hit later than it historically did. Last year, Burlington didn't have its first freeze of the season until Halloween. That was the latest or second latest initial freeze of the season on record, depending on whether you consider where the temperature was recorded. 

EEE tends to come and go in multi-year waves. But climate change helps increase the likelihood of future outbreaks, since the world - and Vermont - will continue to warm. 

Maybe this year will buck the trend and give us an early freeze. We can only hope. Meanwhile, wear long sleeves and pants, and pass the bug spray, please.  

Trump Rallies In Phoenix, Las Vegas Cause Heat Illness, Worries Amid Record Heat Wave

Photo from ABC15 in Phoenix shows EMS workers 
helping heat illness victims at a Trump rally last week.

UPDATE 3 PM MONDAY

The Clark County Fire Department reports 24 heat-related calls to the Trump rally in Las Vegas Sunday.

Six of those calls ended up with people being sent to the hospital. In addition, 97 people used cooling tents as they were overheating, the fire department reported.

Donald Trump is taking some heat, pardon the pun, on comments made during the rally in 100+ degree weather.

I want to hope he didn't mean the following, but who knows? During the rally, he said, in relation to the hot weather: "I don't care about you. I just want your vote. I don't care."

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I'm not sure whose idea it was to make people wait in line in the hot sun for a political rally in near record heat Thursday in of all places Phoenix, Arizona.  But that's what they did.  

The result: Plenty of heat related illnesses that sent at least 11 people to the hospital.  

Says ABC15:

"Phoenix fire officials tell ABC15 they responded to Dream City Church in north Phoenix and transported 11 people after reports of heat exhaustion.   

Thursday marked the first day the Valley has reached 110 degrees this year.

ABC15 crews were there as several people began to faint and seek medical attention due to the heat."

Trump spoke at an event organized by Turning Point, a conservative MAGA youth organization that has seen its influence rise as Trump has embraced that organization.

It's unclear whether the Trump campaign or Turning Point was responsible for crowd safety at this event.  Whoever organized came under criticism for not providing water and cooling tents for people waiting to enter the event. 

At least the Phoenix rally was held indoors. People waiting in line eventually got indoors into the air conditioning. 

Things might get worse today.  Today, Trump is scheduled to hold an outdoor rally in Las Vegas. The forecast high temperature there today is 104 degrees.  

Thankfully, at least they're doing something.

According to Raw Story, the Trump campaign released this: 

"'The Trump campaign said it will have thousands of bottles of water on hand in Las Vegas to offer to people in line and to those already inside the security perimeter. It will put up tents around the park so that people can get out of the su and there will be at least one tent with air conditioning, the report states. 'Campaign staff will set up a number of misting fans to help cool the attendees.'"

I honestly don't know if that will be enough. Many Trump supporters are older and/or in not great health, which makes them more susceptible to heat illness. The stress of standing outside in hot June sun for even a short time can be dangerous for those who aren't super in shape. 

Trump certainly has the right to campaign, just like any other candidate, but his campaign should figure out ways to keep attendees safe. Every major event should consider weather contingencies and be ready to deal with the consequences that weather brings. 

To their credit, the Trump campaign abruptly cancelled an April  North Carolina rally just before it was to begin because a dangerous lightning storm was approaching. That was absolutely the right call. 

Heat is as dangerous as lightning, more so, really, if you look at the statistics.  On average, heat kills more Americans annually than any other weather extreme, including flooding, tornadoes and hurricanes.

 An outdoor rally attracting thousands of people during a major heat wave does not seem like a smart idea. I would have found a large, air conditioned indoor venue for this event. 

 

The Climate Disaster In British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Becomes Tragically Apparent

The village of Lytton, British Columbia set all time heat records
for all of Canada three days in a row about a week ago.
The next day, after it reached 121 degrees, the village
was destroyed in a wildfire. Another climate change
disaster. Photo by Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press.

Last week, during the unprecedented, crushing heat wave that hit the United States Pacific Northwest and western Canada, the little village of Lytton, British Columbia set a new record high for any date, any where in Canada.  

For three days in a row. Each day was hotter than the prior one. 

Ultimately, the temperature in Lytton peaked at an unimaginable 121 degrees. The next day, a wildfire swept into Lytton, razing the village, and killing two people

As CBS Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said on CBS This Morning, "That is a direct connection between climate change and catastrophe."

This heat wave, and the subsequent wave of deaths and fires has certainly gotten a share of media attention.  But it's already fading from the headlines. In reality, even though temperatures have cooled slightly, it's all a true, ongoing climate disaster.  

I say this was, and is a climate disaster because there's widespread agreement that a heat wave of this magnitude could not have happened without a boost from climate change. The results are fatal, and the death toll is rising.  

The British Columbia Coroners Service has reported 719 deaths in the week of the heat wave, triple the number you'd normally expect in the province, according to CBC.

On average, British Columbia sees perhaps three heat related deaths per year at most. 

We all regard Canada as a chilly nation, home to ice hockey and bitter Arctic cold fronts they regularly sends across the border into the United States during the winter. 

Canada, though, like much of the rest of the world, will have to get used to danger and deaths from heat waves. Last week wasn't the first time in recent years Canada suffered a heat disaster. In July, 2018, an intense Quebec heat wave killed no fewer than 90 Canadians.

There are heat deaths in the United States each year, but as summers turn even hotter, those fatalities will increase. Especially in parts of the nation that are not used to extreme heat. 

That same July, 2018 heat wave in Quebec also proved fatal to four Vermonters as temperatures here soared in the upper 90s, and the temperature one night in Burlington failed to drop below 80 degrees for the first time on record.   

In Oregon, last week's heat wave killed 94 people, and that toll is expected to rise as more reports come apparent. 

The summer is still young, so more fatal heat waves are a real possibility. If not here or in Canada, but perhaps in some other part of the world. 

People don't just die from the direct effects of heat. 

There were 710,000 lightning strikes in British Columbia and western Alberta between 3 p.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday.  On average, you'd expect about 8,300 such strikes in the same period.  

Many of those lightning strikes would never have happened if not for the heat wave. 

The heat parched the landscape, making forest fires easy to start. During the heat wave, some British Columbian forest fires grew so intense they created pyrocumulus clouds. Those are thunderstorms created from the violent updrafts created by the heat of wildfires.

These thunderstorms unleashed barrages of lightning but almost no rain. Some of the lightning strikes sparked many new fires, which in turn can create more pyrocumulus clouds, more lightning and more fires. The cycle feeds upon itself. 

Fires in British Columbia and the western United States will probably burn all summer, and many more large ones are sure to start. 

We're seeing a repeat of the last few seasons, which had huge, deadly wildfires out west, part of the new normal. 

We feel a few effects of all those fires here in the Green Mountain State, even when temperatures stay cool.  We love the deep blue skies of summer, but the smoke high up in the sky turns the sky a bland, hazy blue gray. 

We'll probably see some of that high altitude smoke and haze overhead this week. The smoke is too high up to cause much of a health effect locally, but the haze is disheartening. 

Combine that with the gypsy moth caterpillar infestation in Vermont this year, which have wrecked the normal landscape of deep green forests, and left a patchwork of brown, denuded trees. That adds to the disappointment in this year's Vermont summer environment. The beauty of the Green Mountain State is diminished. 

Climate change might have had a hand in the caterpillar mess. Recent springs have been hot and dry in Vermont possibly because climate change intensifies spring heat waves.  A fungus that thrives in our normally damp springs keeps the caterpillars in check. Hot, dry weather means less fungus, and more caterpillars.

I got carried away here complaining about aesthetic, but not life-threatening effects of climate change here in Vermont and veered off the main topic.

There is a lull in the heat waves going on at the moment. It was actually chilly in New England this past weekend. We'll have ups and downs in temperature from week to week, and from location to location. It's actually been a cool summer so far, relatively speaking, in and around Texas, for instance. 

However, as climate change marches on, the heat waves will keep striking harder and harder. They'll also become more likely in weird places. Plus, there's other weather and climate worries to deal with. 

For instance, the extreme drought in the West sure hasn't gone away, and that will keep intensifying in many areas for the rest of the summer. That's another crisis made worse with climate change.

Not every weather event is "caused" by or made worse by climate change. Plus, there have always been extreme weather that has caused deaths and tragedy. 

These days, though, many of the headline events are influenced by and made more catastrophic with us spewing greenhouse gases into the air. So expect your news to feature more and more fatal extreme weather events for the foreseeable future.