Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Ramping Up In The Middle U.S. Again

A dust storm in rural North Dakota caused vehicle 
crashes. The dust storms spread across wide
areas of the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Photo from North Dakota Highway Patrol

The same weather pattern that kept us in Vermont pretty cool and showery for the first half of May also suppressed severe weather in Tornado Alley. 

Sure, there were some severe storms, high winds, hail and a few tornadoes over the past couple weeks. 

But not the frightening, powerhouse tornado outbreaks that often terrorize the Plains, Midwest and South this time of year.

That's about to change. That shouldn't be surprising, as this is the peak of severe storm season. 

ALREADY STARTED

We had the first hint of that on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong storm system in southwestern Canada swept high winds through the northern Rockies, northern Plains and into Manitoba, Canada.  

The dust storms with this weather system actually started on Wednesday in Utah and Idaho. The dust storm there caused an eight-car pileup in Utah.  The storm created a blast furnace in Montana, where record highs were set  in Havre, Great Falls, Bozeman and Billings, where it was 95 degrees. 

The heat was accompanied by intense winds. Big Sandy and Livingston, Montana gusted to 85 mph, Toston, Montana reached 78 mph and Havre reached 74 mph. A line of severe thunderstorms amid this chaos created a rare for Montana haboob.

The blowing dust continued in Montana Thursday, and spread into the Dakotas and Manitoba Thursday.  In some parts of Manitoba, rain showers collided with dust clouds, making it basically rain mud in a few places. 

IT WILL GET WORSE

Weather patterns are setting up in such a way to encourage more severe weather and tornadoes. Today, people from Texas to Wisconsin are under the gun, but Iowa seems like the main target. Although tornadoes are a possibility, the real threat late this afternoon and tonight is giant hail and winds to 75 mph. 

It's been a tough year for huge hailstones, and this could add to the destructive drama. 

Saturday

The "fun" is forecast to keep going in Iowa tomorrow, and spread into Nebraska and northern Kansas, where the best chance of bad storms arises. 

The risks look similar to today's. A couple tornadoes could spin up, but the biggest threat is huge hailstones and strong straight line winds. Remember, hail storms can easily be more damaging than tornadoes. Hail usually covers a much wider area in a storm than a tornado path would. 

Sunday

This looks like it might be the more dangerous day of the string of severe weather days. The early thinking is some supercells will develop in Nebraska and southern South Dakota and move east. That raises the risk for a tornado outbreak. 

The supercells will then congeal into a line of powerful storms moving into Iowa. Those wild storms could well include embedded tornadoes, and some of them could be strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Monday

Monday will probably be the most dangerous day
out of the next several for severe storms in tornadoes
The darker orange area has the highest risk. 

This is the day to really watch the weather closely. Especially if you're anywhere between Texas and Michigan. The highest risk looks to be in some of the places that are likely to get hammered this weekend. Plus some new areas. 

That means Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, much of Missouri, Oklahoma and eastern South Dakota need to be on their toes. 

The Storm Prediction Center says that some of the tornadoes expected to touch down might be strong to intense, which is never a happy prediction. 

Most tornadoes are relatively week EF-0s and EF-1s.  

Stronger tornadoes, EF-2s and EF-3s, with winds of between 111 and 165 mph, represent about 15 percent of all U.S. tornadoes and account for about 25 percent of U.S. tornado deaths, give or tak

Less than one percent of all U.S. tornadoes are EF-4s or EF-5s, with winds of 166 mph and up. But those powerful twisters cause roughly 70 percent of all U.S. tornado deaths.  

The bottom line: Pray for weak tornadoes because the strong ones create the worst tragedies. 

Tuesday and Beyond

Severe storms are expected to continue in the Midwest Tuesday, then move more toward the south and southeast Wednesday and beyond. Exactly where the worst storms might fire up later in the week is till TBA

 

Dramatic, Deadly Weather Has Returned To Much Of U.S. Blizzards, Wildfires And More

Wildfire entering neighborhoods in
Woodward, Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Wildfires and dust storms have
plagued the central and southern 
Plains since yesterday. 

We're entering the season in which storms and wind combine to create an enormous smorgasbord of dangerous weather. 

And that wild weather season is off with a big bang with a variety of scary weather going on around the nation. 

That weather action beganwith extreme wildfires in the central and southern Plains, dust storms, and drought-denting snow in the Rockies, feet of snow in the Sierra and a West Coast that has abruptly turned soggy after a month and half of uncharacteristic wintertime dry and warm weather

The new weather pattern is at least easing the harshest winter weather the eastern United States has seen in years or even decades. But the cost of this is dangerous storms that will eventually extend nearly  coast to coast.  

 WILDFIRES/DUST STORMS

 Wildfires raced through parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on Tuesday. One of the fires forced nearly 4,000 people to evacuate their Woodward, Oklahoma. Four firefighters have been injured so far. 

The Woodward County fire demolished three structures, including two a U.S. Department of Agriculture facility. 

One fire started in the Oklahoma panhandle and spread into Kansas, consuming 155,000 acres.  Video showed large fire whirls moving rapidly across the dry landscape and thick towers of smoke looming overhead. 

The storminess out west has helped produce strong, dry southwest and westerly winds across the Great Plains, which are already in drought. 

The winds died down slightly today, but not all that much, The fire threat hasn't gone away. A broad zone from eastern New Mexico to South Dakota and on to Iowa and Illinois are under a fire risk today.  To give you a sense of how chaotic the weather is in the Plains, southern South Dakota is under a fire alert today, while the northern part of the state, less than 100 miles away, is under a blizzard warning 

Wildfires are raging in Florida, too. A combination of drought, sunny, breezy weather and freezes earlier this month have turned the state into a powder keg. One fire in Vero Beach, Florida started from an illegal burn and threatened several homes.

Back in the Great Plains, dust storms also raged on Tuesday, especially in Texas, eastern Colorado and western Kansas and Nebraska.

 A dust storm on Tuesday along Interstate 25 near Pueblo, Colorado cut visibility and caused a 30-vehicle pileup. The crash killed four people and injured 29 others. 

Winds gusted to 68 mph in Amarillo, Texas and the relative humidity dropped to 13 percent. 

WESTERN STORMS

The storms shut down in California around the first of January, and pretty much no precipitation fell until this week. 

These new storms are easing fears that the lack of rain and snow might allow drought to start creeping back into California. 

The Sierra Nevada mountains are part way through a series of dumps that will leave several feet of new snow behind.  Some areas of the Sierra Nevada area had three feet of snow within 24 hours.Blizzards shut down all highways crossing the Sierra Nevada mountains, including heavily traveled Interstate 80. 

Nine back country skiers are missing and six were rescued following an avalanche near Lake Tahoe. 

 Video from Soda Springs, California, showed near zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, The snow looked like it was accumulating very fast. Fox Weather had a chaotic report from the Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra amid almost zero visibility and a mess of stuck vehicles. 

There's an excellent YouTube channel called Tahoe Mountain Life that gives you just what the title says. Today's video on that channel gives you a great idea how things are like in this mountain blizzard. 

The UC Berkeley Snow Lab in the Sierra Nevada reported 29.3 inches of new snow in 24 hours and 57.5 inches within two days. Another two to three feet of snow is expected there by Friday. 

The snow level has dropped to 2,000 above sea level, which is quite a bit lower than it usually is. That
means more roads are either closed or dangerous for inexperienced winter drivers. 

A couple more feet of snow might fall up there by Thursday night.  It should stop snowing temporarily Friday, but more mountain snows should arrive Saturday and continue into the middle of next week. 

The heavy snow has been pushing eastward along the Canadian border through North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Michigan. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning over Duluth, Minnesota. 

SEVERE WEATHER

As if all this wasn't enough, a flash of severe weather is likely tomorrow in Indiana and parts of Illinois, Ohio and Kentucky.  There could even be a tornado or two. That's pretty far north to have a tornado this time of year. 

 

Massive Storm Has Caused Huge Wildfire, Wind And Tornado Damage Already; Could Get Even Worse Today

A home burns in Stillwater, Oklahoma Friday amid 
wildfires that roared through the region. Photo by
Nick Oxford via Facebook. 

After much of the nation endured a day and night of weather chaos Friday, we have more of the same on tap today.  

All thanks to one of the most massive March U.S. storms in memory. 

It started with intense winds, dust storms and wildfires. CBS reports three deaths in Texas involving motorist blinded by dust storms on highways. 

Many highways, including parts of Interstate 35 and 40 were closed in Oklahoma due to crashes, high winds and dust storms.  

At least 50 weather stations in Oklahoma reported winds gusting to  more than 58 mph.  Some gusted past 70 mph.  Amarillo had a peak gust of 83 mph. 

These weren't thunderstorm winds, they were just the power of the parent, intense storm. 

WILDFIRES

The wildfires, sadly, were California style. In other words, tragically destructive. 

No fewer than 150 wildfires were reported in Oklahoma.  One large complex of fires near Stillwater, Oklahoma forced evacuations of numerous homes, some hotels and a Walmart.  At least some homes burned around Stillwater, but we're still waiting on assessment of how bad this one is. "Multiple structures have been impacted," reports News9.com. 

The Stillwater News Press reported multiple homes destroyed in one southwest Stillwater neighborhood.

The fires  were burning houses and other structures elsewhere in Oklahoma, too. About 50 structures burned down around Guthrie, Oklahoma. 

Parts of the Oklahoma City suburb of Norman were briefly evacuated due to another fire on Friday. A wildfire within Oklahoma City limits destroyed two homes. 

In Texas, another wildfire grew to encompass 12.5 square miles.

TORNADOES

 Severe thunderstorms developed near the Mississippi River late Friday afternoon and the sped east, spinning off tornadoes and severe wind gusts that left a trail of damage. 

Tornado damage in Rolla, Missouri last night. Photo
by Joshua Rogers via Facebook.

We've already had 25 reports of tornadoes and 315 instances of thunderstorm-related wind damage as of early this morning.  

That wind damage doesn't include destruction from the intense winds and dust storms in the Plains yesterday that were nowhere near any thunderstorms. 

Reports are still sketchy and spotty as to how bad the damage was and whether there were any casualties from the overnight tornadoes.

They hit in darkness, so we'll be better able to tell how bad things got after dawn. 

We know there was a lot of tornado damage in towns like Rolla, and Villa Ridge Missouri and Cave City, Arkansas and Elliott, Mississippi. Photos on social media showed a large tornado lit up by lightning late last night near Belzoni, Mississippi. A traffic camera near Campbell Station, Arkansas spotted two simultaneous tornadoes nearby. 

TODAY

The tornado situation is actually going to worsen today.

As the day started, tornado watches were already in effect from southwest Ohio down to Mississippi and Alabama.

In the South, this early round of severe weather is just a foretaste of what's to come. 

Alabama and Mississippi are in a  rare high risk zone for tornadoes this afternoon and evening. That's the first time in four years this tornado-prone region has been designated a high risk for twisters.

Forecasters fear the region will be hit be a series of violent, long-lasting tornadoes. This looks like it could get off to an oddly early start today and last all day.  Already, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is contemplating issuing a new tornado watch for much of Louisiana and northwest Mississippi as this new, dangerous round of intense storms begins to develop

The risk of this happening is almost as high as well in parts of Georgia, Tennessee and eastern Louisiana. 

On top of everything else a large area in Tennessee and surrounding states are under the gun today for widespread, life-threatening flash floods.  Some areas could see six inches or more of rain, with rainfall rates of up to two inches per hour. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, the main risk from this storm continues to be flooding. At least minor flooding looks inevitable. The most likely time frame for this would be from late Sunday afternoon through most of Monday.

We'll prime the pump as it were today with warm temperatures in the 60s in many areas of Vermont. That will get rivers starting to rise, but the main show won't happen until later Sunday. 

By Sunday evening, the remaining snow will have been melting fast amid oddly warm, humid air. A band of showers and possible thunderstorms should come through Sunday night, adding another half inch to an inch of rain to all that snowmelt runoff.

We're starting to get the first flood forecast outlooks for specific rivers in Vermont. Though subject to change, these forecasts call for minor to at times moderate flooding. For instance, the forecasts have the Mad River at Moretown at the cusp of moderate flood stage Sunday night. Forecasts also have the Missisquoi River at North Troy approaching moderate flood state Sunday night. 

Even though the thawing today and Saturday could weaken ice in spots, the risk of more ice jam flooding is definitely there on some rivers. I'm especially watching the WInooski, Lamoille and especially the Missisquoi for that possibility. 

STORM IN PERSPECTIVE

Given the breadth of this almost nationwide storm, the destruction that's already occurred and the inevitable severe damage we'll see today, this will be yet another mega storm that costs more than $1 billion in damage.

Large, multifaceted storms are pretty common this time of year, but this storm is an especially extreme case. It's hitting an even wider area than most early spring storms, and its effects are even more intense than the usual March storms that bluster through the Midwest and East. 

I can't specifically blame climate change for this storm's intensity because I don't yet have enough information about the dynamics of this system. However, it's consistent with climate change in that storms tend to be more intense, windier and in many cases wetter than they would otherwise be had the world not been warming. 

This storm has already taken lives, and I'm afraid it will take quite a few more before it's over. Meanwhile, with foolish cutbacks in staffing and services from NOAA, the National Weather Service and FEMA, there might well be some unnecessary deaths with this storm, and almost certainly some unnecessary suffering. 

Late Friday Afternoon Update: All Hell Breaking Out In Plains, Midwest: Dust And Fires Storms, Extreme Winds, Intense Thunderstorms

Highway pileup near Canyon, Texas after a dust storm
reduced visibility to zero on Interstate 27.

 While we here in Vermont blissfully enjoyed a gorgeous, warm, sunny early spring day, the weather has turned violent across huge areas of the Plains and Midwest. 

This was expected, as you might have read in my post this morning.

But really, things have gotten insane. In a lot of places.

I'll give you a quick update now, with even more details to come tomorrow morning. Spoiler: Saturday will be an exceptionally dangerous weather day in much of the South. 

Today has been bad enough. I have plenty of examples and receipts, and I'll give you a few scary ones here. 

Dry, intense winds have gusted as high as 83 mph around Amarillo this afternoon. The winds cut power to parts of the city, and dust storms have reduced visibility to near zero on area highways. Video on social media shows several tractor trailer trucks toppling over on Amarillo-area highways. 

South of Amarillo, near the towns of Canyon and Happy, zero visibility in blowing dust caused a major highway pileup along Interstate 27.  Details are still sketchy, but as many as 50 vehicles might have been involved. No word yet on injuries or deaths. 

The dust storms extended over huge areas, including large swaths of New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. Winds were gusting to 70 mph or more in large areas of the Plains. Multiple car crashes due to bad visibility in the dust storms have also been reported in Oklahoma. 

The extreme winds are combining with incredibly low humidity to create firestorms, too. 

Visible satellite photo showing massive amounts of dust
blowing though New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma 
this afternoon amid wind gusts reaching
hurricane force in some areas.

Numerous fire warnings were in effect in Oklahoma, forcing evacuations of some towns and neighborhoods. Some of the fires were in heavily developed towns, like the Oklahoma City suburbs of Edmond and Norman. 

The anticipated severe thunderstorms just started developing mid to late afternoon. A strengthening line of severe thunderstorms extended in a curving band across extreme eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa and western Missouri late this afternoon.

The storms were producing destructive winds and hail. Rotating supercell thunderstorms were lurking in this line, and with the storms expected to head east and get worse, a tornado watch was posted for parts of Arkansas, eastern Missouri and western Illinois.

Even without the tornadoes, some of these thunderstorms could carry straight line wind gusts of up to 100 mph. 

Strong overnight tornadoes are feared later on in much of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi

Meanwhile a blizzard warning was posted for eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

To give you an idea of how weird it is out there. Marshall, Minnesota was among the cities under a blizzard warning, but it was 74 degrees there late this afternoon. By dawn Saturday, heavy snow, strong winds and temperatures in the upper 20s were forecast for Marshall. 

On Saturday, a relatively rare high risk alert has been declared for expected intense tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts are usually written in pretty sober fashion, but this sentence in today's update made me sit up and take notice:

"Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening."

It's going to be a long, horrible weekend for much of the United States.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Gawd, as mentioned, today was gorgeous. Typical of late April, really, not mid-March.  It got up to at least 60 degrees in Burlington today, which is a full 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. 

It'll be even warmer Saturday with highs in many spots in the mid-60s.

Warm, oddly humid weather is on tap for Sunday as rain and wind arrives. To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a flood watch for all of Vermont and northeast New York. 

The flood watch runs from Sunday morning through Monday evening. Rain isn't even really going to arrive to any great extent until Sunday afternoon, but the snow melt ahead of the rain could even be enough to trigger flooding. 

The most likely timing of flooding would be from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon. We're still monitoring how high rivers might rise and how ice jams might affect flooding

Watch this space for more updates.  

Extreme Weird, Tornadic, Dusty, Fiery, Destructive Wind Storm Getting Even Worse In Plains

Massive squall with damaging winds approaching Boulder,
Colorado this morning at the start of today's destructive
Plains storm. 

As I write this at 5 p.m. EST, a speeding, hugely destructive squall line with embedded tornadoes is crossing the Missouri River from Nebraska into Iowa.

Already a powerhouse, this line of storms seems to be getting even worse, in what has so far been an incredible and destructive day in the Plains. And we're just getting started.

This state of affairs was well advertised this morning. If anything, it's even worse than expected. I've been watching today in fascination and horror as things originated in New Mexico and Colorado and swept into the Plains. 

This morning and early afternoon, winds gusted to 107 mph in Lamar, Colorado, 104 mph in Broomfield, Colorado and 100 mph in Colorado Springs. Some of the winds were accompanied by blinding snow squalls. More often, they contained blinding dust. 

The weather roared into the western Plains late this morning, stirring up dust storms with zero visibility across western and central Kansas. Countless trucks flipped on now closed Interstates. Winds gusted to 86 mph in Garden City Kansas. 

Fires broke out and raced through the Plains. Part of the town of Guymon, Oklahoma and some hamlets in Kansas were being hastily evacuated at this hour due to onrushing wildfires.

At 4 p.m. local time, a fire was menacing areas around Russell, Kansas. At the time the wind in Russell was sustained at 60 mph gusting to 100 mph. 

Then, there's the squall line and tornadoes and the straight line winds.  It quickly developed in central Nebraska and Kansas, and, as noted, was crossing the Missouri River into Iowa late this afternoon.

The squall line immediately began creating huge wind gusts and confirmed tornadoes. Winds gusted to 85 mph in Russell, Kansas and Grand Island, Nebraska when the line of storms was brand new.  Its forward speed is around 70 mph, and soon it was producing wind gusts as high as 92 mph in Bennet, Nebraska.

As I write this, everybody in Omaha, Nebraska is being told to treat the severe thunderstorm coming through as a tornado, with winds of at least 90 mph possible. Tornadoes are also reportedly spinning north and south of the city. 

This will intensify further in Iowa and probably far southern Minnesota, so this will only get worse.  The air is incredibly warm ahead of this line for this time of year.  Des Moines, Iowa got to 74 degrees this afternoon, besting the record for the hottest temperature on record there for the entire month of December by five degrees.

Damage reports are understandably scant right now as you can imagine. They're dealing with all the emergencies out there, and getting potential victims to safety, if they can. Nobody really has time to do assessments yet.

Less than a week after the extreme and tragic Kentucky tornadoes, we have another major national disaster on our hands. This, at the hands of a truly unprecedented and unnerving and extreme storm. 

I"ll have much  more on this tomorrow morning, I'm sure.