Storms And Heat: Vermont Update Has A Little Of Everything

A little wetting helped some of my leafy garden greens
yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont, but wish we could have
gotten more rain. 

Today, we look at a damn accurate forecast from yesterday, lingering drought, a rising risk of severe storms in Vermont Saturday, and a heat wave that's still coming, but might be tempered a bit.  

ACCURACY WINS 

As a weather geek, I'm impressed by how far forecasting computer modeling has become, and by extension, how much more skillful meteorologists are these days. 

Even just a few years ago, I would have never expected that 12 or more hours before an event, the forecasts would pinpoint exactly where a line of showers and storms would set up.  There's just too much variability in the atmosphere. 

But early yesterday, the forecasts were pretty bullish on a slow moving train of showers and storms from roughly Glens Falls, New York to near and just south of Rutland, Vermont to north of White River Junction.

That's exactly what happened. The only inaccuracy in this forecast was a good thing. Though the rain was locally heavy, it did not lead to any substantial flash flooding, which was a minor fear in Thursay morning forecasts.

There was one to two inches of needed rain in this batch of storms, with possibly local higher amounts.  There might have been a few minor driveway washouts and town road crews might have to shore up a few edges to some gravel roads, but that's about it. 

DROUGHT UPDATE

Thursday's rain was largely beneficial.

Where it actually rained.  

Some needed rain fell in southern Vermont Thursday,
but not much fell where it's needed most, up north.

The central Champlain Valley, especially around Burlington, missed out entirely on the rain, and the dry conditions are deepening there.

 Since May 6, Burlington has had only a half inch of rain during a period when they should have had about 3.5 inches of precipitation.

Two bands of lighter showers, one early in the morning, one in the evening, gave a little wetting in far northern Vermont.  We'll take anything we can get, except severe weather, more on that in a minute. 

My very unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans, Vermont collected just 0.2 inches precipitation Thursday. Not much, but oh, well. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out yesterday, with no real changes in Vermont. All but the far southern end of Vermont was regarded as abnormally dry, with drought conditions continuing in most of eastern Vermont north of around Springfield.

SEVERE SATURDAY?

Things are beginning to look interesting for Saturday afternoon and evening in northern Vermont. 

Yesterday, I mentioned a weather disturbance that was destined to produce severe thunderstorms and possibly even a tornado or two in Ontario and southern Quebec Saturday.  

It now looks like that activity might spill across the International Border a bit more than earlier expected. That raises the possibility of severe thunderstorms in northern Vermont (along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine) Saturday.  

It all depends on how that weather disturbance behaves and the timing of it. That thing was over Saskatchewan this morning, so there's still a lot of time for its expected path and behavior to change. 

As of this morning, it looked healthy, with a fair amount of lightning with it. 

If the disturbance holds together well, and gets to Quebec before sunset, northern areas could get in on the severe storm action that will have unfolded roughly from Ottawa to Montreal. 

The Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont as part of a slight risk zone for severe weather on Saturday afternoon and evening.  

Northern New England is under threat from severe
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening
as rough weather in Quebec might cross the border.

If the bad storms do hit, the most likely time frame is between 5 p.m. and midnight, with a weakening trend in the storms starting around sunset.

The biggest threat from any storms that do get going are strong, damaging straight line winds from those bowing echoes I've talked about in the past. 

A bowing echo is a line of thunderstorms shaped like a backwards "C". Fierce winds can develop at the apex of that "C."  That's what caused damaging thunderstorm winds in central Vermont on May 26.

It's even possible there could be some supercells with this, which would bring a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in far northern New England.  

HOT SPELL TEMPERED?

The scheduled big hot spell that's been advertised for days now is still coming, but there are changes to this forecast in the offing. For those who hate hot weather, some good news: It looks like it will be a big shorter than previously forecast, and maybe not as intense. 

Sunday still looks pretty hot, but not as roasting as originally thought. The weather that might cause Saturday's severe storms would bring the teensiest bit of cooler air with it. Instead of 90s, we'd get well into the 80s, with maybe a couple spot 90s in the warmest valleys. 

Monday still looks pretty torrid, and probably Tuesday, too. 

But unlike previous forecasts, another cold front looks like it wants to sneak down from Quebec Wednesday. This would put a quick end to the heat and drop our daytime temperatures to somewhere near normal - 70s for highs instead of 90 degrees for late week. 

It's too soon to tell if this cold front will come through dry, or give us more needed rain.