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| This morning's severe storm outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Yellow is level two of five risk levels. It means there likely will be scattered reports of storm damage. If this forecast map looks familiar, because the map issued 24 hours earlier, which I featured yesterday, is almost identical to this one. |
We're still setting ourselves up for some severe thunderstorms later today in Vermont, and surrounding areas, such as the rest of northern New England, New York, southern Quebec and elsewhere.
You'll notice the air this morning has and is changing. It's growing more humid and the dawn air feels like it's going to get hot.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms were already racing into parts of Vermont around 7 a.m. This is part of a warm front that will introduce the really juicy air that will prep the atmosphere for the main show. That main show is expected to start mid to late afternoon.
After these early morning warm front showers and storms pass, the sun will at least partly come out. Temperatures soar well into the 80s and to possibly near 90 this afternoon. The heat will help destabilize the air even more, laying the groundwork for the storms.
The wind will be gusty from the south all day, especially in the Champlain Valley. That will keep pumping in the humidity fro the south.
That combination will make it will feel like a severe weather day even before any big storms develop.'
As usual, this will be a hit and miss kind of affair, even as most of us will see thunderstorms. Certain areas will see wind damage from the storms, while people in the next town over will just see lightning and get drenched by a downpour.
Vermont, along with many of the areas I mentioned above, are in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Slight risk is level two in the five point risk chart and means whoever is under such a zone can expect scattered instances of storm related dangers, such as damaging winds, large hail or a tornado.
The overall forecast scenario for storms has not changed much since yesterday.
The warm front will be well into Quebec by this afternoon, and some sunshine should keep going into the early to mid afternoon around Vermont. That should help make the air more unstable and prime the pump for storms later in the day.
There is at least one complication to this stormy scenario:
Western New York was already being hit by some strong thunderstorms early today. They were heading rapidly east and northeast and might make it to or near Vermont later this morning. The might weaken before they get here, but I wonder if these morning storms will serve to hold down temperatures and stabilize the atmosphere a bit.
If that happens, and that's a HUGE if, then the severe storm threat would diminish somewhat.
Still, the atmosphere does seem to want to bubble with storms today, so it's worth it to keep an eye to the skies. My guess is the western and now central New York storms will race by, leaving us in partial sun and humid air after lunch To me, that means the overall forecast holds, at least for now.
The expected big storms will tend to gather along that pre-frontal trough that I mentioned yesterday. A pre-frontal trough is sort of a mini weather front out ahead of a cold front. Updrafts are drawn to this trough, so this is where you'd get your thunderstorms.
Those storms should fire up during the mid-afternoon in New York State and head east. A few storms might pop up ahead of the main line, and those will need to be watched, too. These discrete storms -not part of a squall line still have a very low, but not zero chance of producing a brief spin up tornado.
The main risk of course is strong winds. Current forecasts have a pretty solid line of storms coming into western Vermont in the late afternoon or early evening and plowing eastward as the evening wears on.
You can't tell in advance, like this morning, where the worst storms could form along this line. But if that line forms and approaches, look for parts of the line that sort of bow out in the shape of a backwards "C". Areas at the apex of any backwards "C" can expect the highest threat from damaging winds.
I suppose there could be a brief tornado spin up along this line, too, if a particular storm along the line tries to rotate. But again, the chances of that are slim. We really need to be on the lookout for strong straight line winds.
Because of the gusty winds all day and the risk of a storm at any time, today is NOT the day to take your boat out onto Lake Champlain. There will be nicer days later in the week for that.
The timing is such that the strongest storms might be entering western Vermont around the time of the late afternoon and evening commute. You might not want to be caught out on the highways during the storms, due to blinding rains and wind during the storms.
The storms will keep moving deeper into Vermont during the evening. Since the storms will reach southeastern Vermont after dark, instability will be waning, so the storms might also weaken in tandem down there.
Bottom line: Pay attention to forecasts, and if you hear a severe thunderstorm warning, just stay put in a sturdy building until the storm passes.
I'll update today as warranted.
STORMS ELSEWHERE
Tropical Storm Claudette, which moved inland Saturday and weakened to a tropical depression, managed to revive as a tropical storm early today over eastern North Carolina. A little odd to see a tropical system strengthen over land, but things are weird lately, so why not?
Claudette was never a strong storm, but it does demonstrate why you should take even relatively lame tropical storms seriously. Claudette spun of several tornadoes and set off flash floods in spots across the South.
Thirteen people have died because of this storm, including eight people, mostly children, who died in a fiery Alabama highway wreck caused by vehicles hydroplaning in heavy rain spawned by Claudette.
In the Midwest, an apparent tornado struck suburbs southwest of Chicago, mostly around Woodridge and Naperville overnight. Easily more than 100 homes were damaged or destroyed, and we have a report of at least one critical injury from the storm. That person was in a house that was completely leveled by the tornado.
Many other reports of storm damage came in from Missouri, and the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
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