Today's Severe Storm Outlook. Also, Brief Heat Builds, But Nothing Like Plains!

A severe thunderstorm that came in from Quebec looms 
over St. Albans Bay, Vermont in July, 2013. There
could be similar scenes and threats in northern New
England, including northern Vermont today.

We are still watching the risk of severe thunderstorms later today over northern Vermont and surrounding areas.  Just to keep you on your toes. 

As usual, not everybody will get clobbered by a nasty storm, but some of us will.   It seems almost certain a few places could have damaging wind gusts from afternoon and evening storms.   

It'll be hit and miss. One town will find themselves cleaning up a bunch of fallen trees and branches, while the next town over will be wondering what all the fuss is about. 

Since it's impossible as of this writing early Saturday morning to tell which towns will be under the gun, just have a way of receiving any potential severe thunderstorms warnings and take shelter when and if you do hear one of these warnings. 

All that said, we can certainly broad brush this for you to give you some idea what's probably in store. 

The afternoon timing of a weak cold front in Quebec and a batch of somewhat stronger winds aloft creates the risk of severe storms.   Those all hit today during peak heating for the day, which helps add instability to the atmosphere. 

It will be warm and moderately humid this afternoon to help fuel the storms, and a cooler pocket of air aloft over southern Quebec will help create some of the lift necessary for strong storms. 

The areas where this setup is most likely to create some severe storms is in Quebec south and east of a Montreal to Quebec City line, extreme northeastern New York, Vermont from Route 2 north,  New Hampshire roughly north of a line from Littleton to Conway, and central and western Maine. 

Strong to severe storms could start to fire up as soon as noon, but are most likely between about mid afternoon to a little after sunset (possibly lasting longer than that in Maine).  Given the risk of storms, this is not the day to go hiking in northern New England or to take your boat out on the lakes in the region. 

Even if any particular storm isn't officially severe, all that lightning zapping around, the gusty winds, the possible hail and locally torrential rains make it a bad idea to be caught outdoors without shelter. 

As far as what kind of severe weather to expect, as usual, the biggest risk is for strong, damaging straight line winds. 

Chances are thunderstorms would form into short lines shaped like backwards "Cs" which would enhance those winds.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a risk of
severe thunderstorms over northern New England today.

The second biggest threat is locally big hail.

There's a chance that some thunderstorms might be discrete, meaning not attached to a line of several other storms. 

Those discrete storms have the potential to develop into supercells. That means that in the areas most likely to have severe storms today, there's a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado or two, so that's not good. 

Things will die down overnight.  On Sunday, there might be a widely scattered storm here or there, but they won't be severe. But that's when the heat comes in. At least it will be relatively brief

HOT SPELL

The hotter air is starting make itself felt.  You'll notice it a bit today ahead of the storms in the north, as highs get into the 80s. 

The thermostat goes up a little more Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree highs. 

Monday will be the blast furnace day, with temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s for most Vermont valleys. Record highs could fall. The record high in Burlington Monday is 94 degrees, so it will be close. 

We'll start to lose the heat a bit on Tuesday, but it'll still be toasty, especially in southern Vermont.  Then a refreshing cold front comes in from Quebec - probably not accompanied by severe storms. By the end of the week, it'll actually be a bit cool for the season.  Some places won't even make it to 70 degrees Thursday and Friday afternoon.

The heat by then will slosh back to the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, which already have suffered from some intense early season heat. 

Cities that you've heard of having extreme cold are having extreme heat instead. Bismarck, North Dakota hit 106 degrees, certainly the hottest for so early in the season for them, and breaking the old record high for the date by a full 11 degrees. Minot, North Dakota managed 105 degrees.

Emerson, Manitoba, Canada got to 104 degrees.  That's the hottest temperature in that Canadian province for any date in over 30 years. 

International Falls, Minnesota, known as the nation's ice box, must have something wrong with their chiller. It got up to 98 degrees there Friday, the hottest for so early in the season and the toastiest it's gotten there for any date in 26 years.

Unlike here in New England, the heat in the northern Plains will probably continue to drag on through mid-month.