Northwest Extreme Heat: Could It Happen In Vermont?

Despite constant watering, the river birch we planted in
our yard is still suffering a bit as it is enduring one of 
the hottest Junes on record.  While we have not
experienced the kind of extreme heat that has happened
elsewhere in the world lately, there's no reason why
new all time records can't be set if weather patterns
 align themselves just right. 

 As we've been talking about all week, the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada have been broiling in an unprecedented heat wave.  All-time records have been shattering left and right. 

We here in Vermont are experiencing a nasty heat wave, if I can be Captain Obvious here. 

Today, Burlington will almost certainly go over 90 degrees, making three consecutive days in a row with such temperatures. That makes it an official heat wave. 

This has been a fairly intense heat wave by New England standards.  Burlington, Vermont has continuously been above 75 degrees since 3 p.m. Saturday, so there's been no relief at night.  

Though northern Vermont will turn slightly cooler tomorrow and Thursday, a few towns in central and southern New England could make it to 100 degrees today and tomorrow. 

Our heat wave has of course been overshadowed by the the brutal, extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada, which somehow managed to get even worse on Monday.

The entire nation of Canada saw its all time record high broken, with a reading of 118 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia. The old record of 116 was set just the day before in the same town. 

Seattle reached 108 degrees Monday. The old all time record high for the city before this heat wave was 103 degrees. 

Portland, Oregon, reached a blast furnace like 116 degrees, and the old record high for the city was just 108 degrees. 

Through Monday, at least 25 U.S. cities and 34 in Canada reached new all-time record highs, says the Weather Channel. 

A normally chilly town named Quillayute, Washington reached 110 degrees, breaking their all time record by a whopping 11 degrees. You don't break that kind of record by such a wide margin, but there you go. 

Normal high temperatures in Quillayute this time of year is in the mid-60s, so it getting that hot there is pretty much the equivalent of our Burlington, Vermont getting up to 125 degrees. 

This all begs the question: Can something so unprecedented happen here in Vermont?

Well, it won't get to 125 degrees in Burlington, not even close. But with climate change taking hold, I think current all time record highs in Vermont are in jeopardy one of these summers.  In my opinion, probably within the next couple of decades. 

For perspective, the hottest temperature on record for the entire state of Vermont was 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911. Yeah, that was a long time ago.   Burlington's all time record high is 101 degrees from August, 1944.  It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times, in 1911, 1944 and twice in 1995.

Meanwhile, unprecedented heat waves have been hitting different parts of the globe with increasing, alarming frequency. Sure, records are made to be broken, so it's inevitable that some place in the world will occasionally have an all time record high temperature. The pace of such record heat waves has picked up markedly, though. 

In recent decades, though, massive heat waves have been obliterating records. Such heat waves have struck not just the Pacific Northwest, but Russia (in 2010) and western and central Europe (2003).  Many other areas of the world have had all-time record highs.

In July, 2019 new national heat records were set in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.  

Last year a reading of 100 degrees was noted for the first time north of the Arctic Circle, in a Russian town. 

Just this year, places as diverse as Helsinki, Finland, and Mexicali, Mexico broke their all time record highs for June (89 and 125 degrees, respectively.) Billings, Montana and Salt Lake City, Utah broke their all time records in another heat wave earlier this month, with readings of 108 and 107 degrees. 

Here in Vermont, we haven't hit all time record highs in recent years, but there have been a flurry of new monthly records, and records for earliest and latest in the season heat. 

Eight of the 12 monthly high temperatures in Burlington have been set since or tied since 1995. The city's records go back to the 1880s.

There have been days that have broken records by huge margins. In February, 2017, the temperature in Burlington reached 72 degrees. Prior to that year, February temperatures had never exceeded 62 degrees. On Christmas Eve, 2019, it was 68 in Burlington and 70 in Rutland. Last year on Christmas Day in was 65 degrees.

So we now seem at least somewhat prone to breaking records by large margins. 

If the weather patterns align themselves perfectly in the middle of summer, that combined with global warming, could really shatter all time record highs in Vermont. 

Which is potentially very dangerous, because we're not used to extreme heat. 

The chances of these records shattering this year or on any given year are very low, but it's something that could happen.