Time For That Stupid "What Will This Winter Be Like" Parlor Game

Winter driving in St. Albans, Vermont a couple winters
 ago. It's virtually impossible to accurately predict 
what the upcoming winter will be like, but that's not going
to stop people from trying! 

 Right about now, it's peak frenzy time to predict what the upcoming winter weather will be like. 

I'm frankly not a big fan of this parlor game. There's so many factors that can influence the weather a couple, few months from now that it's almost not worth predicting. 

Besides, pretty much every winter here in Vermont is highly variable. Sure, some are cold, some are warm, some are snowy, some are rainy, whatever. But it's totally subjective. You might remember that horrible cold wave in January. Somebody else might remember a big February thaw.

The bottom line is, I'll tell you how the winter of 2022-23 will turn out. The catch is, I'll tell you in March, 2023. By then, we'll be out of winter and I can give an accurate accounting of it. 

For the record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday came out with their prediction of what winter will be like for the United States.  

Their thinking is that chances are better than equal that it will be warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States, and up along the East Coast, east of the Appalachians. Chances are, according to NOAA, that it will be chillier than average from the Pacific Northwest, through the far northern Rockies into the northern Plains. 

NOAA is also suggesting it will be drier than normal across the southern tier of the United States, and perhaps wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest, far northern Rockies and around the Great Lakes.

Everywhere else, it's a tossup.

If you look at NOAA's map, most of Vermont has an equal chance of being warmer or colder than normal, with a slight edge toward warmer than average in the southeastern part of the state. Also, most of Vermont has equal chances of being wetter or drier than average, with a slight edge toward wetter in northwestern Vermont. 

NOAA is predicting a generally warmer
than normal winter in the South and a cooler
than average one in the northwest. White
areas in map are a tossup. 

This tells us nothing as to whether most of the precipitation we get will be rain or snow. 

NOAA based its prediction on the fact that this will probably be the third winter in a row in which the world is in an El Nina weather pattern.

This pattern features cooler than normal ocean water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off of South America. On average this pattern makes the southern third of the United States warmer and drier than normal. La Nina doesn't really tell us squat about what kind of winter we'll have in Vermont.

There's plenty of other factors that might weigh in. So it's anyone's guess. Just like it always is. 

Since it's a persistence forecast, another La Nina winter, you'd think that we could just look at the past two winters in Vermont and figure out what this season will bring. 

Nope. As always, last winter and the winter before were different from each other. Both were somewhat on the dry side in Vermont.  However, last January was quite a bit colder than normal while the January before was on the warm side. 

However the Decembers and Februaries of both seasons were vaguely similar, I suppose. This February was slightly wet, the February before, a little dry. 

So comparing winters doesn't help.

And forget about relying on the Farmers Almanac, wooly caterpillars, squirrel behavior or anything else. The almanac is an entertaining read, but its winter forecasts do little better than coin tosses. Squirrel behavior depends more upon food availability this time of year than anything else. The black and brown bands on the caterpillar are just a function of how it's been feeding, how old it is and its species. 

My official winter forecast is the same as it is every year: It will be warm unless it isn't, wet unless it isn't, and snowy unless it isn't. 

There's a 100 percent chance it will snow in Vermont this winter, and there will be lots of changes from cold spells to mild spells, stormy periods to calm periods. Just like every winter we Vermonters have experienced.