Thursday Evening Update: Flood Threat Continues In Vermont/Rest Of New England

Expected rainfall for tonight's storm has increased a bit
in northern and eastern Vermont. Many of these areas
can expect two inches of new rain by midday Friday. 
So in 12 hours, about two-thirds of the normal
October allotment of rain should fall

We have a few tweaks to the forecast since this morning regarding the heavy rain that's coming in for tonight. 

As I write this at 5:30 p.m. Thursday, rain showers are finally beginning to increase in Vermont, though the main show will be later this evening and overnight.

One to three inches of rain is still in the forecast, with a few spots going past three inches. The main difference in the forecast is that the strong cold front responsible for the expected heavy rain is moving a little slower than originally thought. This would increase rainfall totals. 

The slower movement of the front is why today was actually kind of nice in Vermont. We only had a few light showers because that front is dawdling over New York State.

Because of that slower cold front, a flood watch was issued earlier today for most of Vermont outside of Grand Isle County because of this expected heavier rain. Any flooding that does get going will probably be fairly minor and not widespread.

But that's still a real danger since the heaviest rain and any flash flooding that does develop will happen at night. When you're driving along it's much harder to spot flooding and hit the breaks in time so you don't go into the water, or worse, a nasty washout. 

During the day today, there were some pretty good wind gusts, but in general, the wind wasn't as strong as it could have been.  Still, the wind was enough to take lots of leaves off the trees, and as the rain is moving in now, lots more will come down. 

Which means we're still looking at clogged storm drains and "leaf dams" causing problems in small streams, culverts, that kind of thing. If you have a storm drain in front of your house with piles of leaves over it, it might be a neighborly gesture to try to remove the leaves.  I don't know if the drains you clear will re-clog, but it's worth a shot. 

Forecasters are keeping an eye on areas east of the Green Mountains. A small storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coast is riding north to northwest along or just ahead of the cold front. This thing will probably move northward over New Hampshire late tonight and tomorrow morning, enhancing the rainfall. 

Flooding might end up being a little more of a concern east of the Greens.  South and east facing slopes of the White Mountains over in New Hampshire still see particularly at risk for some flash flooding. Rainfall in some area in the Granite State could reach six inches. Yikes! 

A carpet of leaves covered the ground in Taylor Park in 
St. Albans, Vermont Friday afternoon after gusty winds
took down many leaves from the sugar maples 
that grace the park. 

Main rivers around Vermont will see sharp rises with this storm. But their mostly low to begin with, so there shouldn't be any flooding along those. An exception is the Ausable River in New York. Forecasts indicate it might go over its banks a little bit. 

Rain will slowly diminish west to east over Vermont during the day Friday. Even though the fall foliage will be diminished after this storm, there still will be lingering color, especially in the warmer valleys. 

The weather this weekend will be pretty good, with some sunshine and near normal temperatures for mid-Ocrtober.

Overall, the big rains with this storm will put another dent in the lingering dryness underground in parts of Vermont caused by the lack of rainfall over the summer. That's one piece of good news. We did need some soaking storms this autumn and we seem to be receiving them. 

Another storm system seems likely to come along Monday, giving us a wet start to the week, but that storm won't be any kind of blockbuster.

It sill looks like by midweek, snow showers could reach valley floors in Vermont. Tis the season, right?