This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

On Upcoming Anniversary Of Vermont Dual Floods: Kinda Stormy, But Not That Scary

Rampaging Winooski River roars through Winooski,
Vermont during the big flood of July, 2023

On this date, July 9, in both 2023 and 2024 I had a sense of dread and alarm for Vermont.

With both occasions, Vermont was about to be slammed by horrific and disheartening, destructive floods. 

Now it's July 9 again, and here in 2025 thunderstorms and locally heavy rains are in the forecast for tomorrow again.

 The big and very important difference is this year, it doesn't look like we're facing disaster. Maybe a little inconvenience in a few spots, but - fingers crossed - nothing more. 

No calamity, no real sorrow, very little loss is in the cards this time. 

On July 9, 2023, I wrote the following: "I'm very worried, frankly. All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011."

I was right to be worried. July, 2023 was tragically pretty much as bad as Irene in 2011.  

Last July 9,  I wrote, "On the one-year anniversary of one of the worst floods in Vermont's history, we're about to see that flood's kid brother."

The "kid brother" packed almost as bad a punch as the flood the year before.

JULY 10, 2025

After what we went through in the past two years, I feel like I want to be a little more cautious than usual talking about our forecast this year. Irrationally, I don't want to jinx it.  Everybody in Vermont,  has at least a touch of flood PTSD.

That includes the very lucky ones like me, who suffered little damage to their homes and properties in the two events. I can only imagine what people who suffered terrible losses in the past two July 10 events feel like when rain is in the forecast. 

A destroyed bridge and culvert system near 
Huntington, Vermont after the floods of July, 2024

Today will be fine, with no problems at all. There could be an isolated shower or storm in far southern and eastern Vermont, but, no biggie

Then we get into tomorrow. Yes, there is a marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm. And a marginal risk of isolated flash floods, too.

You have to look at it as a game of chance, and tomorrow's game of chance looks a lot more favorable to us than in the previous two years.

In 2023, forecasts leading up to the event gave people in Vermont a more than 70 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of their location. 

Last year, the forecasts from NOAA gave us a more than 40 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of where they were standing.

Tomorrow, those chances of seeing a flash flood within a couple dozen miles of where you are is just 5 percent. 

Also, those chances in 2023 and 2024 predicted major damage. This year's marginal risk suggests we might have at most some isolated instances of mostly minor flooding in poor drainage areas. 

THE SETUP

The weather system coming in tomorrow to provide those expected storms tomorrow will be weak, barely discernible on weather maps. This will be nothing like the intense blasts of Atlantic and tropical moisture that slammed us in 2023 and 2024.  

But, the humidity will be back. That'll provide plenty of fuel for showers and storms. Air flow in the atmosphere will be sluggish, too, so thunderstorms will be in no hurry to move from place to place.

That's why there's that low risk of local flooding. If a downpour sits over one spot for too long, you start getting washouts, and high water in small streams and creeks.  If we see any of these stalled downpours, they won't cover a wide area, which is why not many people are at risk of any flooding.

 Most of us will only see a half inch of rain or less. We'll get through the day and just end up with wet gardens and grass, so mowing the lawn tomorrow evening is probably out of the question. It won't be a great day for the beach or boating or hiking.

Again, we're facing minor inconveniences tomorrow, not catastrophe. 

BOTTOM LINE

It probably would have been better for everyone's mental health if the Vermont forecast for tomorrow was for wall to wall sunshine. But at least we don't have the feeling of dread we had at this time last year, and the year before.

But I'm going to ruin your mood now. A warmer, climate changed atmosphere can hold much more water than it could decades ago.  That makes flash floods more likely in very many places, including here in Vermont. 

It's been an exceptionally terrible month already in the U.S. for flash floods.  As of this morning, it appears at least 110 people have died in last weekend's Texas Hill Country flood with as many as 161 people still missing. 

On Sunday, four died in a severe flash flood in central North Carolina. Just yesterday, the worst in a series of flash floods and debris flows from a forest fire scar in Ruidoso, New Mexico killed three people and washed away homes. 

And last night, a stalled thunderstorm dumped more than five inches of rain in just an hour and a half in the western parts of Chicago, causing severe local flash flooding and water rescues from cars. 

Though we seem in Vermont  - again, fingers crossed - from any scary flood drama tomorrow, I still have the feeling that the other shoe will drop eventually. So does anybody involved in Vermont emergency management, weather forecasting and climate science. 

Eventually, something like July 10-11, 2023 and July 10-11, 2024 will happen again. And again and again. 

Vermont has always had terrible floods.  But now we are in an era that these disasters are more frequent.  This new reality is changing the very fabric of the state, and those changes will keep coming at least as fast as the flash floods will.

This isn't your grandfather's Vermont anymore.