On Upcoming Anniversary Of Vermont Dual Floods: Kinda Stormy, But Not That Scary

Rampaging Winooski River roars through Winooski,
Vermont during the big flood of July, 2023

On this date, July 9, in both 2023 and 2024 I had a sense of dread and alarm for Vermont.

With both occasions, Vermont was about to be slammed by horrific and disheartening, destructive floods. 

Now it's July 9 again, and here in 2025 thunderstorms and locally heavy rains are in the forecast for tomorrow again.

 The big and very important difference is this year, it doesn't look like we're facing disaster. Maybe a little inconvenience in a few spots, but - fingers crossed - nothing more. 

No calamity, no real sorrow, very little loss is in the cards this time. 

On July 9, 2023, I wrote the following: "I'm very worried, frankly. All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011."

I was right to be worried. July, 2023 was tragically pretty much as bad as Irene in 2011.  

Last July 9,  I wrote, "On the one-year anniversary of one of the worst floods in Vermont's history, we're about to see that flood's kid brother."

The "kid brother" packed almost as bad a punch as the flood the year before.

JULY 10, 2025

After what we went through in the past two years, I feel like I want to be a little more cautious than usual talking about our forecast this year. Irrationally, I don't want to jinx it.  Everybody in Vermont,  has at least a touch of flood PTSD.

That includes the very lucky ones like me, who suffered little damage to their homes and properties in the two events. I can only imagine what people who suffered terrible losses in the past two July 10 events feel like when rain is in the forecast. 

A destroyed bridge and culvert system near 
Huntington, Vermont after the floods of July, 2024

Today will be fine, with no problems at all. There could be an isolated shower or storm in far southern and eastern Vermont, but, no biggie

Then we get into tomorrow. Yes, there is a marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm. And a marginal risk of isolated flash floods, too.

You have to look at it as a game of chance, and tomorrow's game of chance looks a lot more favorable to us than in the previous two years.

In 2023, forecasts leading up to the event gave people in Vermont a more than 70 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of their location. 

Last year, the forecasts from NOAA gave us a more than 40 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of where they were standing.

Tomorrow, those chances of seeing a flash flood within a couple dozen miles of where you are is just 5 percent. 

Also, those chances in 2023 and 2024 predicted major damage. This year's marginal risk suggests we might have at most some isolated instances of mostly minor flooding in poor drainage areas. 

THE SETUP

The weather system coming in tomorrow to provide those expected storms tomorrow will be weak, barely discernible on weather maps. This will be nothing like the intense blasts of Atlantic and tropical moisture that slammed us in 2023 and 2024.  

But, the humidity will be back. That'll provide plenty of fuel for showers and storms. Air flow in the atmosphere will be sluggish, too, so thunderstorms will be in no hurry to move from place to place.

That's why there's that low risk of local flooding. If a downpour sits over one spot for too long, you start getting washouts, and high water in small streams and creeks.  If we see any of these stalled downpours, they won't cover a wide area, which is why not many people are at risk of any flooding.

 Most of us will only see a half inch of rain or less. We'll get through the day and just end up with wet gardens and grass, so mowing the lawn tomorrow evening is probably out of the question. It won't be a great day for the beach or boating or hiking.

Again, we're facing minor inconveniences tomorrow, not catastrophe. 

BOTTOM LINE

It probably would have been better for everyone's mental health if the Vermont forecast for tomorrow was for wall to wall sunshine. But at least we don't have the feeling of dread we had at this time last year, and the year before.

But I'm going to ruin your mood now. A warmer, climate changed atmosphere can hold much more water than it could decades ago.  That makes flash floods more likely in very many places, including here in Vermont. 

It's been an exceptionally terrible month already in the U.S. for flash floods.  As of this morning, it appears at least 110 people have died in last weekend's Texas Hill Country flood with as many as 161 people still missing. 

On Sunday, four died in a severe flash flood in central North Carolina. Just yesterday, the worst in a series of flash floods and debris flows from a forest fire scar in Ruidoso, New Mexico killed three people and washed away homes. 

And last night, a stalled thunderstorm dumped more than five inches of rain in just an hour and a half in the western parts of Chicago, causing severe local flash flooding and water rescues from cars. 

Though we seem in Vermont  - again, fingers crossed - from any scary flood drama tomorrow, I still have the feeling that the other shoe will drop eventually. So does anybody involved in Vermont emergency management, weather forecasting and climate science. 

Eventually, something like July 10-11, 2023 and July 10-11, 2024 will happen again. And again and again. 

Vermont has always had terrible floods.  But now we are in an era that these disasters are more frequent.  This new reality is changing the very fabric of the state, and those changes will keep coming at least as fast as the flash floods will.

This isn't your grandfather's Vermont anymore.   

Lake Champlain Lake Level Might Peak Early This Year, No Significant Flooding Expected

Relatively high lake levels on April 25, 2019, invading
wetlands near Alburgh, Vermont, as the lake should do
every spring. The cycle of high water each spring 
helps the ecosystem. 

 Lake Champlain might be nearing its peak level earlier than usual this year, depending, of course on whether the rest of this month proves unusually wet or not. 

Many of of us watch the Lake Champlain level each spring.  On the negative side, if the water gets too high, we have to worry about flooding. If it doesn't rise much, it could hurt the ecosystem in and around the lake, as many plants and animals depend upon natural high and low water cycles. 

As of yesterday, the lake level stood at 98.2 feet above sea level. As WPTZ meteorologist Ben Frechette pointed out today, that's actually a little higher than normal for this date. The lake on average peaks in the final days of April at around 98.5 feet. Flood stage is 100 feet.

If you look at the chart Frechette helpfully provided on Twitter today, the lake started rising sooner in the spring than normal, but at about the same rate at usually does. 

That reflects the early onset of mountain snow melt during our warmer than normal March. Much of the snow melted off the hills prematurely, so the lake level went up early.  The lake might start to recede early, too, if weather for the rest of the month is either normal or drier than average.

How high the lake gets this year depends on how much rain we receive.  Snow melt will soon start to s  get less and less important as there's just not all that much snow in the mountains left to melt.

The lake appeared to reach an early peak of 98.26 feet on Saturday, and then started a slight decline. That still seems high enough to keep the ecosystem happy. 

There's a good chance the lake will have at least one more burst of rising levels toward this weekend if current weather forecasts pan out. 

We have the potential for some fairly heavy rain on Thursday. Forecasters say the rain could be heavy enough to cause sharp rises on rivers, possibly even with some minor flooding. Since so many rivers feet into Lake Champlain, that storm, if it comes will lead to higher lake levels. It could even come close to 99 feet if there's a lot of rain late this week.

From there, the lake will start to recede again late next week, unless more wet storms arrive. 

Even if that storm hits Thursday, I don't think Lake Champlain will hit flood stage this year, unless we have some very heavy rain storms between now and mid-May.

At 100 feet, you start to see erosion problems on the shore, some roads covered in water, and maybe a few very low lying camps see flooding. At 101 feet, the flooding gets pretty serious, but I really doubt that will be a problem this year. 

You don't want the lake to get too high, though. Photo that
I took in 2011 shows record high Lake Champlain levels
destroying camps in Burlington, Vermont.  

The relatively high water we are seeing is a good thing, and it's even better if lake rises even a bit more this month. 

The ecosystem of Lake Champlain really depends on higher water each spring. 

The rise and fall of Lake Champlain in the spring helps ensure healthy wetlands which all kinds of plants and animals depend upon. 

The federal Environmental Protection Agency calls wetlands "biological supermarkets," which provide food for a wide variety of animal species. Lake Champlain has tons of wetlands along its edges, which helps the ecosystem throughout the Champlain Valley and beyond. So you want those wetlands to work the way they're supposed to.  

Of course, as we learned in 2011, too much water and snow melt are a really bad thing. That year, the lake shattered the record for its highest level ever seen, at 103.2 feet. The lake level in 2011 stayed above 102 feet for more than a month. 

The flood easily caused more than $6 million in damage. 

There is of course no way that flood will repeat itself this year. Instead, we should just enjoy the natural lake cycle, even if it is happening a little earlier than average.