Another "Never-Ending Summer" Regime In Vermont; Tropical Storm Nicholas

Now that it's mid-September, gardens around my St. 
Albans, Vermont home are definitely past their prime, but
at least I'm not worrying about frost yet as warm
days are in the forecast. 

By mid-September in Vermont we usually start to talk about the risk of frost, especially outside the Champlain Valley. 

That's mid-September frost talk has been becoming less common in recent years, as climate change in general makes our weather warmer.  That's not to say we'll never see mid-September frost again. We will, for sure. 

Just not this year.

It has stayed on the mild side so far all month. True, the average temperature so far this month in Burlington has come out nearly normal, but that's the newly introduced "normal", which is above historical levels.

Plus, signs point toward generally warm weather continuing perhaps to the end of the month. That's not to say there won't be a few cool days thrown in there. But for now, expect warmth, and on some days over the next week or two, summer type warmth. And maybe a bit of humidity.

Before we get there, we'll have to endure the "coldest" night so far this season tonight. It'll get down into the 40s, which is so average for mid-September, really to be ridiculous. Even the notorious cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom should stay at or above 40 degrees overnight. Areas near Lake Champlain should hold in the 50s.

That leads us into a long period of warm weather. Expect daily highs in the 70s each day through at least the next week with lows in the 50s.  Warmer valleys will hit 80 on some of these days and in those banana belt towns, overnight lows will stay above 60 on some nights.  That kind of weather used to be average for mid summer.

As usual, rain last night missed northern Vermont but hit the far south of the state. A band of thunderstorms zipped east along Route 9 overnight, dumping an inch or more of rain down there. The rainfall entirely missed pretty much everyone from Rutland and Windsor counties north.

Looking ahead, other than the warmth, the only interesting weather will come along on Wednesday, courtesy of a cold front.  The "cold" air behind the front won't be chilly at all, you won't notice much of a difference between the air before and after the cold front.

What the cold front lacks in temperature change will more than make up for itself in energy and a ready supply of moisture  This front reminds a little of the one that came through last Wednesday, which produced a slow moving band of heavy rain with embedded strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

This one won't be exactly the same, but will have similarities. There will be locally heavy rain, and the risk of severe thunderstorms. At this point, the risk of severe weather looks like it'll be directed toward the southeastern half of Vermont and on into southern New England.

There's still time for adjustments in that forecast, so we'll have more details tomorrow and Wednesday morning on any nastiness from that system.

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS

This tropical storm formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday and was east of the southern tip of Texas early this  morning.   Top winds are 60 mph, and this storm might strengthen to hurricane levels by the time it moves ashore somewhere on the mid-Texas coast tonight.

Wind isn't the big concern with this one, though. It's rain.  Nicholas will move inland and slowly move northward through eastern Texas then eventually turn right into Louisiana later this week. 

Any winds will quickly diminish, but forecasts call for 8 to 16 inches of rain in the storm zone, with local amounts up to 20 inches. This, not surprisingly, brings a high risk of flash flooding today, and probably tomorrow to much of coastal Texas, including Houston.

Onshore winds during this will send surges from the Gulf of Mexico toward Houston. This will help prevent flood waters from draining from this vast urban area.  While this won't be as bad as the epic floods in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, it will be bad enough.

Plus, Louisiana doesn't catch a break does it.  Seems almost every tropical system ends up there.  Louisiana is saturated from Hurricane Ida earlier this summer, and they've obviously just started to pick up the pieced from that hurricane. 

While there won't be any new wind damage in Louisiana from what will then be the remnants of Nicholas, flash flooding will soak much of that state this week. 

Like they need it.