UPDATE: Severe Storms Sweeping Southern Central Vermont; Will Continue Rest Of Afternoon

Best chance of severe thunderstorms 
today is in yellow shaded area.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m. Wednesday

It's just about over for Vermont, anyway, as of 5:30 p.m.

Most if not all the severe storms have moved east of Vermont, though a few strong ones are still possible in far southern Vermont.

The only thing we really have to watch out for now is the possibility of flooding in Bennington County.

Just over the border into New York State from Bennington County, up to four inches of rain has fallen and more is coming down. Flash flooding, some fairly serious, is ongoing there.

One last batch of heavy rain is headed toward Bennington County, and that could be enough to set off some local flash flooding in that area. Iffy, but possible.

A pretty good slug of rain seems to be headed toward central Vermont, too, but it won't be enough to cause flooding. 

As usual, far northwestern Vermont, pretty much the only part of the state that needs rain, kinda missed out. My rain gauge in St. Albans collected a half inch of rain today.

No substantial rain is in the forecast for the next week. 

Several towns in southern and eastern Vermont have reported tree damage from severe thunderstorms today. 

UPDATE: 2:30 p.m. Wednesday 

As of 2:30 p.m., the expected severe storms have developed as expected.

They seemed to have formed into two lines.

The stronger of the two was further south, from near Rutland northeastward to east of Montpelier.

Many of these storms in this southern line so far have remained somewhat separate from one another, giving rise to the risk that they could more easily spin, and potentially drop a quick tornado.

So far there's no evidence of this, but severe thunderstorm warnings have been flying down in that neck of the woods.

This line of storms will slowly sink southward while strong to severe storms race northeastward along that line. 

The second line ran from Chittenden County to the Northeast Kingdom and was following roughly the same pattern as the one further south.

Although not as strong as the southern line, some of the storms in the northern line are quite strong, and could become severe as the line slowly sinks south and east.

Far northwestern Vermont is escaping this with showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder for the next couple of hours.

I won't be chasing these storms today because I got out of work a little to late to catch up with them. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

 Up here in St. Albans, Vermont dawn came with thunder, lightning and downpours, part of that set up for a stormy Wednesday. 

The morning storms up here hinted at today's set up, which has been consistently forecast for days now. Southern Vermont is the storm target.

I know that sounds a bit strange, since all the activity early this morning was up north and the south stayed dry. 

However, when thunderstorms go through a particular spot early in the morning,  more stable air is usually left in their wake.  That's the case here, and will help to squelch storms later this morning and afternoon. Lingering clouds from the storms will hold temperatures down a bit.

Plus, the morning storms were an indication that northwestern Vermont is closer to the cold front that will cause today's problems. The cold front will come through here early enough in the afternoon so that storms won't have a great chance to develop much in the heat of the day.

Still, the north could see a few gusty, rainy storms later today, and non-thunderstorm southerly winds could gust to 40 mph in the Champlain Valley before the cold front arrives, but let's not focus so much on that.

Roughly the southeastern third of Vermont is the target, along with much of New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and the Hudson Valley of New York.

In these areas, some sun will continue to shine into the afternoon.  It has turned humid.  Temperatures will pop up into the low 80s.  Those are many of the ingredients you need to set things off.

Also, on the check list is that approaching cold front to create lift in the atmosphere that would aid and abet storms. And strong winds aloft to help maintain the storms.  The winds high above will also change direction with height, so most of the ingredients are there. 

Strong straight line winds are the main threat, but we'll have to watch for hail and even a brief spin up tornado. A quick twister is possible, though rather unlikely. 

The low chance of tornadoes will come if supercells develop.  These are rotating thunderstorms, not attached to each other like the lines of storms we usually see.  If that happens, there could be a few spin ups.

Today's set up, though, suggests that any individual supercells that form will fairly quickly merge into a line of storms.  That reduces the already low tornado risk somewhat more, but also increases the chances of strong, damaging straight line winds.

I do think some wind damage reports are inevitable today in the areas I talked about.

It looks mid afternoon to early evening is the hot time for the storms today in southern Vermont. They probably will go later than that once you get into New Hampshire and Maine. 

Low but not zero chance of tornadoes today in
green and especially brown shaded area.

Let's insert the usual caveat here:  While most everyone in Vermont, especially southern Vermont, will see showers and storms, not everyone will be "lucky" enough to be hit with a dangerous, damaging storm. The actual scary ones will be hit and miss. 

Torrential downpours are likely with the storms. Though there might be some street flooding and local minor washouts, the storms should be moving along just fast enough to prevent severe flash flooding.

For those under the risk of severe storms today, you know the drill.  Just do your normal stuff, but have a way to get storm warnings, like a weather radio or a reputable source like major local news media like TV and radio stations. 

If you get a severe thunderstorm or God forbid a tornado warning, head indoors immediately.  In the unlikely event of a tornado warning, the basement is your best bet. Failing that, a windowless interior room on the first floor of a sturdy building is best. 

It's kind of late in the season for this type of severe weather outbreak, but these things can and do occur in September every once in awhile.

This will all be out of our hair by tonight, and the forecasts still calls for several days of warm, mostly dry weather. (Could be a few light showers Saturday, we'll see).

Weather geeks out there might have heard of one run of the American computer model known as the GFS that has a strong hurricane racing northward through New England around September 27.  That run of the computer model depicts a hurricane similar to the Great Storm of 1938.

Before you get your panties in a bunch with panic, I wouldn't worry about that just yet. Let's listen to famous tornado chaser Josh Morgerman (icyclone on Twitter), who does have a way with words. "You New Englanders need to cool it with your 1938 fantasies, ya here? Put the nudie magazine (00Z GFS) away."

Chances are there will be some sort of tropical system off the East Coast sometime toward the end of the month, but first, we don't know for sure there will actually be such a system, and two, if there is a storm the forecast is so long range as to be almost meaningless. For the record, a subsequent run of the GFS six hours after the above mentioned one showed a hurricane passing well east of New England.

I'd give it another 10 days.  If the models are still advertising a New England hurricane then, that's the time to worry. But right now I'm really betting against such a scenario.