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| When you get a partly cloudy, cool spell of weather in the fall, which is anticipated over the next week or so, shadows and sunlight make the foliage look that much better. |
The chill won't be breaking any records, but it will be the coldest weather since early May, so it is a shock to the system.
The chilliest weather looks like it will arrive tomorrow and Thursday, and there's still a chance of snow flurries on the mountain summits.
In the grand scheme of things, this cool spell really isn't all that chilly, at least by historical standards. It's been a LOT worse this time of year. As always, I have the receipts to prove it.
The Burlington area banana belt has seen snow flurries as early as September 20 in 1956 and 1991. On October 3-5, 1965 temperatures stayed in the 30s continuously for two and half days. There are many more examples. So you see how awful it can be.
This cool spell will be a piece of cake compared to all that. A long lasting piece of cake, but a piece of cake nonetheless.
Vermont's Champlain Valley, at least, will most likely continue a long growing season. The last time Burlington reached 32 degrees was on April 27, and it's unlikely it will get that cold around there during this spell.
Interior sections of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley had frost in late May, and stand to see the chance of scattered frost during this cool spell if we get any clear, calm nights. Again, that's nothing unusual for this time of year.
The coolness is happening because an immense ridge of high pressure is poking all the way from the central United States northward into the high Arctic. Here in Vermont, we're on the east side of that ridge, so some of the air we're getting is from the Arctic, just east of where the center of the ridge is poking northward.
It isn't that cold around here, because up in the Arctic, that ridge of high pressure is making it very warm by the standards of the Arctic. Since the source of our cool air isn't that cold, our weather isn't particularly icy, either.
Most of the chill Wednesday and Thursday will be because we'll be directly under an upper level low pressure system. It has its own independent pool of cold air several thousand feet above us, which will help reinforce the chill down here on the ground.
Plus, since the temperature will fall very rapidly they higher you go due to that cold pool above us, that will make the air unstable, generate lots of clouds to block the sun's warmth, and create some light, but cold showers.
Those showers will act to bring some of the cold air down to the surface. Temperatures might actually fall into the 40s in some northern areas during Wednesday afternoon.
This overall weather pattern will persist, so it won't warm up dramatically after the rest of this week and the weekend. At least that upper level low will move to our northeast a bit, so we won't be under the coldest air.
However the wind from the warmish northern Quebec will continue, so our temperatures will remain slightly below normal through early next week. But not bad! Highs will poke up into the low 60s, which is great for fall foliage viewing. But not cold. By the way, with this cool air, fall foliage will rapidly progress in Vermont over the next week.
This weekend should bring us some spectacular autumn colors, especially in the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations of northern and central Vermont.
Little disturbances, I'd guess you'd call them mini cold fronts will rotate around that upper low to our northeast through the weekend, which will generate some clouds each day through the weekend, with some sprinkles here and there.
Frankly, I like that mix of clouds and sun with the foliage. It can create some dramatic shadows and shafts of sunlight that enhance the autumn landscape.
It's hard for this type of weather pattern to break down, so it might not be until the middle of next week until we see a substantial change in the weather.
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