Stormy Wednesday In Vermont

Today's severe thunderstorm outlook: A few cases
of damaging winds possible in dark green area.
Slightly  higher risk in yellow. 

If you like wet and windy, today might be your kind of day here in Vermont.

Forecasts haven't changed much since yesterday,  and a band of showers and storms is still on the schedule to come through the Green Mountain State this afternoon and tonight.

There's still the risk of locally damaging storms embedded in this line.  And some places will see some pretty heavy rains out of this.

Let's get into the deets, shall we?

The storm creating our turbulent weather already has a bit of a history, having set off quite a few severe thunderstorms and even a couple of tornadoes around the central Great Lakes and on into Ontario. 

Tennis ball size hail was reported in eastern Wisconsin, winds gusted to 70 mph or more in  northern Illinois and caused damage and widespread power failures in part of Ontario.

Things won't be quite as dramatic as that, but still, we'll want to keep a eye on the weather today here in Vermont. 

Today is not the day to be out boating around Lake Champlain. Even before any showers and storms get going, winds will gust much of the day to 40 mph, with wave heights three to five feet.  Winds won't be quite as strong as that outside the Champlain Valley today, but you might get a few gusts.

The upper air flow is almost parallel with the approaching cold front, so the band of rough weather later today will only slowly make its way through. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks the storminess will reach the Champlain Valley around 5 or 6 pm. this afternoon and be across central Vermont by dark.

While all parts of Vermont could see isolated instances of damaging winds with these storms, the best chance seems to be in the central and southern Champlain Valley and on into Rutland County. That's the area that seems to be most primed for strong storms.

Marginal risk of flash flooding in
dark green areas Yellow areas at
somewhat higher risk

The Storm Prediction Center even has that zone in a very, very low but not zero chance of having a brief tornado. What is it about Addison County that attracts the storms anyway?  In any event, if there is any severe weather, the greater chance is for damaging straight line winds.

The next trick with this cold front is heavy rain. Those strong south winds you're feeling this morning are pumping in some humid air, so those storms coming in will have some downpours.

For the most part, they're still expected to move slowly but steadily eastward, so they're unlikely to cause much flooding since they won't sit in one spot for too long. 

Still, there's the chance that the line of storms could get a little hung up in its passage across Vermont. That would mean we'd get those "training" storms that I've brought up in this here blog thingy in the past. Essentially, those are storms that go over the same area repeatedly, like boxcars passing by on the railroad tracks. 

It that happens, we could get some scattered instances of flash flooding this evening, so you'll want to be careful with that.  Even without "training" some storms could cause some trouble with street flooding in more urban areas.

Behind the front, there's still a chance of some scattered showers Thursday, but no biggie. Friday will offer another taste of autumn as daytime temperatures stay in the 60s an gusty northwest winds keep blowing.