Big Flood Risk In Northeast Today/Tonight; Far Southern Vermont Has Some Risk

Areas in pink have the highest threat of flash floods today]
and the highest likelihood of severe floods. Areas
in green,, yellow and especially orange have some
risk of flooding today

 Much of the Northeast today continues to brace for what could be one of the worst floods in a generation.

Forecasts continue to indicate the remains of Hurricane Ida will interact with a slow moving weather front to dump incredible amounts of rain on the already soggy Northeast.

The highest risk for severe floods continues to be across the southeastern half of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the New York City metro area and Connecticut.

At least some flooding is a good bet in a broad stripe from West Virginia to the southern tip of Maine.  

After thoroughly trashing Louisiana, Hurricane Ida, now a post-tropical remnant low, has already produced flooding in the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.

The famed Bonnaroo Music Festival, scheduled for this weekend in Tennessee, had to be canceled due to flooding and soggy grounds left from Ida. 

Early this morning, flash flood warnings were rapidly expanding in area and scope across West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania, and this trend will continue eastward and northeastward through the day today.

There was flash flooding around Washington DC early this morning, and after a break of a few hours, more flash flooding and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for that area this afternoon.

Things looked like they were getting bad around Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania this morning. Cities like Philadelphia, State College, Trenton, New York, Hartford, Bridgeport and others are under a big threat today. 

Steep, hilly and mountainous areas in West Virginia, in the Poconos, the Catskills, Litchfield Hills and northwestern New Jersey are also in big trouble today.  The impacts in the Northeast will be worse than what happened with Henri last month. 

On top of all this, there's a fairly substantial tornado risk in parts of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey today. 

Here in Vermont, the southernmost two counties of Vermont are once again under a flash flood watch today. Seems like that part of the state is always under a flood alert these days.  Areas near and south of Route 9 will be on the edge of the heaviest rain.  

At this point, one to three inches of rain is possible there. That implies not so bad flooding, but there will be a sharp gradient between the torrential rain in southern New England and nothing in northwestern areas.

If the axis of heaviest rain jogs north just a bit more than forecast, then far southern Vermont could end up with more extensive flooding. I have noticed a slow northward trend in the computer guidance on this storm. 

At this point, a drenching, but not necessarily flooding rain seems likely near and south of Route 4 with rain tapering off to nothing in northern Vermont. Again, a slight shift in the main rain band could change this forecast for tonight.