After Our Vermont Morning Frosts, It's Back To Late Spring Warmth. Except A Nippy Sunday?

It's lilac season, as they blooms cascade over my deck
railing. Cool temperatures this Memorial Day weekend
will preserve the lilacs for awhile, but it won't exactly
feel like an introduction to summer. 

 The cold temperatures last night worked out about as forecast. We had widespread frost, with a large minority of places in northern Vermont going below freezing. 

Montpelier got down to 31 degrees and Morrisville was 29 degrees. St. Johnsbury was barely above freezing at 33 degrees. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley escape the frost for the most part, as temperatures there reached the upper 30s. Burlington had an overnight low of 38 degrees.

There was likely seen light frost across southern Vermont, too. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all reported morning low temperatures of 35 degrees 

We have nice day on the way, with highs popping back up well into the 60s.  Some high clouds should return this afternoon, but those won't entirely hide the sun. 

Then we get into a Memorial Day weekend that looks, not great in the weather department. But we still have some questions about how much rain we might get and when it might fall. We do know it will be dry much of the time, at least on Saturday and Monday. Let's take a shot at the forecast here: 

SATURDAY

Not too bad, actually, especially north. If the clouds stay thin enough north, the day might begin with patchy frost in the normally colder spots, but the vast majority of us will be fine. It'll be a cloudy day, with the thickest clouds south.

That'll affect temperatures. Highs under the thicker clouds south will probably hold temperatures down into the upper 50s. Where the clouds are thinner north, weak sun getting through will hopefully push temperatures up to near 70.

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, if current forecasts hold, Sunday's weather will be almost as bad as it can get for this time of year. Almost, because there will be no disasters, no snow, or anything like that. 

But it won't feel like the introduction to summer it's supposed to be, either. Light rain should move in later Saturday night and continue much of Sunday. Worse, this is a cold system, so the lack of sunshine and the rain could well hold high temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Some places, especially in wetter southern Vermont, could have a high temperature in the mid and upper 40s. You know, like late March,  not late April. 

The one ray of hope is there is some questions as to whether the high pressure system that gave us this morning's frost will at least partially block this system. If it does, there would be some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, especially north. But that looks sort of unlikely at this point. 

The rain should be quite light, ranging from a tenth of an inch north to up to a half inch far south. 

MONDAY

OK, this won't be perfect, but it will be better. Winds from the west will import somewhat warmer air into Vermont. We'll still have a risk of showers, but temperatures should pop back up to near 70, which isn't far from normal for this time of year. 

Frigid April Vermont Morning Came As Predicted; Mostly Dry, Cool-ish Weather Is Up Next

A daffodil tries to recover in the morning sun today after
early morning lows here in St. Albans reached 24 degrees. 

 The worst of our April cold wave will be ending this morning as sunshine boosts temperatures out of the midwinter doldrums. It won't exactly get warm again right away, but at least it will be reasonable.  

After all, Monday was anything but toasty.  The remaining patches of snow in my yard didn't entirely disappear until mid-afternoon. 

Early in the day, Burlington picked up another 0.6 inches of snow.  The average date for the last trace of snow for the season in Burlington is April 15. 

But it could we worse. It could always be worse. Burlington has had as much as three inches of snow on May 9, in 1966 and a trace on May 31, 1945

The National Weather Service had another interesting statistic out of this sudden, brief return to cold. Burlington's records go into the 1880s. There have only been 17 occasions in which a particular day had both temperatures in the 60s and measurable snow.  Two of those days happened in the past couple of months.

On Sunday it was 61 degrees just after midnight early in the morning. By mid-afternoon, 0.2 inches of snow had fallen. A similar situation happened back on March 17.  We started the day before dawn at 65 degrees, but 0.2 inches of snow fell

The most extreme example of warmth on a "snowy" day was on February 25, 2017. A little before 3 p.m. that day, it reached 72 degrees, shattering the record for the warmest February day on record. A cold front arrived later that afternoon, and before midnight, 0.2 inches of snow fell. 

Just one more example of how weather changes quickly here in Vermont

THIS MORNING'S LOWS

Many of us will be picking through the wreckage of our early season gardens. But depending on the plant, we might not know for days what was damaged and what was not. In the case of  plants that are just budding, like lilacs, we might not know for a few weeks if the blooms are OK.

The most intense cold early this morning was brief, so I think there's a good chance that many blooming daffodils and other early flowers survived. I imagine many if not most of the lilac buds did, too. Time will tell. 

Generally the threshold for the start of damage to tough early season blooms is about 25 degrees. Burlington had a low temperature of 25 degrees this morning.

Here in St. Albans, it was 24 degrees just after dawn. Montpelier got to 18 degrees, breaking the record low for the date by one degree.   Lyndonville got down to 18 degrees. Morrisville was 19 degrees. Newport and Bennington was 20 degrees.   The majority of weather stations in Vermont were in the low 20s as of 6 a.m. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got to at least 12 above.

At least this now-ending chill will be the coldest weather we'll see until October or November 

FORECAST

The next several days will be a little cool and almost entirely dry. Today will only make it into the upper 40s for the most part which is still pretty chilly for late April

A very weak disturbance tonight might produce some sprinkles. And maybe some snowflakes in the higher elevations. We just can't let go of winter, can we?

After that, the weather becomes rather boring for us.  Boring is a good thing. That means no tornadoes, no snowstorms, no extreme killing freezes. At least here in Vermont. I can't say the same for other parts of the state.

We will see almost no precipitation for the next week or so.  A block up weather pattern means storms trying to come at us from the west will either fall apart or get pushed well south of us. It still looks like the next chance of rain won't come along until April 29 or so. Even then, early indications are that April 29 rain won't exactly be impressive. 

The rest of this week will be on the cool side. High temperatures this time of year should be in the mid 50s cooler locations and close to 60 elsewhere.  Wednesday through Friday, highs will be in the upper 40s in the chilliest areas of the north to low to mid 50 for most of us. So, not that bad.

It looks like temperatures will warm ever so slightly to near normal levels this weekend. At least for a couple days. The overall weather pattern heading into early May is for slightly cooler than average weather. But this time of year, "slightly cool" is still spring weather.  The season will advance, and we'll forget about our little struggle with this morning's wintry chill.