Spring Rains Easing Lingering Vermont Drought: A Dry Week Will End In A Wet Spell

All winter and early spring, the U.S Drought
Monitor showed continues moderate drought
in northeast Vermont, (orange) and 
abnormal dryness south (yellow)......

Lingering drought in Vermont was literally frozen in place all winter. 

The very serious drought the state experienced last summer and fall had eased somewhat thanks to decent rains in the late autumn. 

Severe drought in northeastern Vermont improved to moderate drought as we went through December, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But then the improvement stopped. 

The northeastern third of the state remained in moderate drought, and southern Vermont was abnormally dry through the winter and early spring. 

Rivers, lakes and the ground had frozen as we'd gotten deeper into winter. Most of the precipitation fell as snow. Snow is only potential drought relief. It doesn't really help anything unless it melts.  The question remained: Was the drought continuing to est. 

The thawing of spring has cleared that up. The dry conditions are improving. 

We didn't actually see any change in the weekly drought reports until the April 16 weekly report. Drought had been reduced to a small area in the Connecticut River valley. The Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont were still abnormally dry, but not quite in drought. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, released yesterday, shows just a sliver of the Connecticut River Valley between about White River Junction and Springfield still in drought. That area represents only about 4% of Vermont's land area were still in drought. 

Most of the rest of southern Vermont was still abnormally dry, but that designation was removed in the Northeast Kingdom. The drought in northern parts of the Green Mountain State that began last August  is finally over, at least for now. 

The measurements the U.S. Drought Monitor uses go up to Tuesday, two days before the report is released. 

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor, released
yesterday. has only a small area of drought
near White River Junction and Springfield
and abnormal dryness in southern
Vermont. Elsewhere the trough is over. 

This week, Vermont has entered a notable dry spell. Nothing other than isolated sprinkles and a few snowflakes have fallen since this past Tuesday. 

No rain is forecast until at least next Tuesday. The air will remain very dry over the next few days, with rock-bottom humidity levels. Strong April sun will penetrate to the ground through still-leafless trees. 

That means we might  have a little backsliding in next week's U.S. Drought Monitor report, but I wouldn't worry too much.

Week-long spells of very dry weather are common in late April and early May. It doesn't mean they will last that long. 

In fact, forecasters have relatively high confidence that we'll enter a wetter period starting in about five days or so. I don't' see boatloads of rain coming,

Most of the time over the next couple of weeks, we won't have any actual storms bringing steadier rain to the North Country. We'll probably have a couple such storms, but they won't represent the majority of the weather we'll face.

Instead, a pool of very cold, subfreezing air will settle in several thousand feet overhead. In the winter, that would have meant a long, miserable slog of overcast skies and light snow flurries.

This time of year, with the strong spring sun, that means the cold air aloft will create tall, billowing clouds.  That means frequent showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings, mixed with a few breaks of clouds. We might well get into an early May pattern where it rains every day or close to it, but very few days would be a washout. 

We'll have to wait a few days to see if the weather will work out exactly that way. We'll also have to wait until next week to determine which days turn out mostly wet, and which turn out mostly dry with just a few showers. 

SPECIFIC VERMONT FORECAST

In the meantime, sunshine is the name of the game.

Here are some specifics

Today/Saturday

Today will be the coolest day of the bunch. Most of us had a frost and freeze this morning. No worries, we always get those this time of year and it wasn't enough to harm garden plants. 

Highs this afternoon will only get to the upper 40s in the Northeast Kingdom to the low 50s elsewhere. There should be some mid-50s on southern valley floors. 

It will feel a little confusing out there, just as it did yesterday. When there's a lull in the wind, it will feel warm and you'll wonder why you're wearing that damn fleece.  Then a little gust of wind will come along and you'll know why. 

Tonight will actually be a little colder than last night. Almost everyone will get into the mid and upper 20s. It might be closer to 30 in the warmer valleys. 

Such temperatures would be a big problem in mid-May when everything is blooming. But the early stuff out there now should do just fine. 

The storm that caused the tornadoes and rough weather in the Plains Thursday is shearing apart. The remains of the storm will create an area of rain that will dive down from basically Buffalo, New York, to New York, City on Saturday. 

That will leave us in the clear, with maybe some high clouds, especially in southwestern Vermont.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than today, but still just a touch on the cool side. 

Sunday/Monday

The sunshine fest will continue, as highs top out near 60 degrees both days. That's roughly normal for this time of year. Yes, 60 is normal. We're in full spring now. 

Tuesday and Beyond

We might squeak out one more sunny day Tuesday. It depends on the pace of a weakening storm that will be headed our way. After that, the showery regime I mentioned should settle in for awhile. 

Vermont Drought Eased At Faster Pace Last Week; Northeast Overall Improved

Latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Vermont, 
issued yesterday. Definitely some improvement.
Extreme drought now down to less intense
severe drought in Northeast Kingdom
Much of Vermont is out of drought,
mostly just "abnormally dry" --yellow
color. Much of the central and northern 
Champlain Valley is no longer in drought at all,

 Drought conditions improved quite a bit in Vermont over the past week, according to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Report, which was released Thursday. 

For the most part, the intensity of the drought took one step down for almost the entire state. 

The area of extreme drought that covered about 25 percent of the state in the Northeast Kingdom improved to severe drought. It's the first time since September 9 that no regions in the Green Mountain State were in extreme drought. 

Severe drought in central Vermont eased to just moderate drought.

 Most of western and far southern Vermont went from moderate drought to just "abnormally dry" which means it's still a little bit parched but  a full blown drought has disappeared. 

And, for the first time since August 12, at least a small part of Vermont is no longer even abnormally dry. 

Most of the central and northern Champlain Valley was abnormally dry last week, but this week, that same region is hunky-dory. Adequate ground water, normal stream flows.  Nothing to worry about in terms of dryness. 

The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods in Vermont, but we are in much better shape than we were a month ago. Keep those rain dances going, though. 

The drought in Vermont seems to have peaked in mid-October and has been improving ever since.  About 41 percent of the state was still in drought with this week's report. That's the lowest percentage since August 19. 

The improvement can easily be seen on Lake Champlain. On October 19, the lake reached its lowest level of the drought at 92.81 feet. People could walk to places like Law and Mosquito islands and keep their feet dry. 

The lake has risen to 94.5 feet as of Wednesday. That's just an inch or two below normal for the date. 

NORTHEAST IMPROVEMENT

Elsewhere in the Northeast, the drought generally improved. Especially across northern New England, and western and northern parts of New York.

New Hampshire this week had no areas in severe drought for the first time since September 2.  About 78 percent of the Granite State is still in drought this week, but that's the lowest percentage since August 12.  

Extreme drought in Maine is greatly reduced, but it's still lingering along a small area of the sea coast near Portland. 

Of all the states in the North Country, New York is doing the best. Only a third of the Empire State remains in drought. 

OUTLOOK

The improvement in Vermont drought condition will probably slow or even briefly stall over the next week as little rain or snow is expected. 

A cold front that had been expected to give us a shot at moderate rain or a mix today is now likely to only deposit very light amounts. Some of us won't see any rain at all.

But starting nest week, it appears the weather pattern might start getting active again.  Moderate rain looks like it might accompany a brief warmup next week. Even so, only a quarter to a half inch of rain is in the forecast for the next seven days. 

After that, things have a colder look heading into December. But that colder pattern looks active with frequent chances of precipitation.  Since it will be colder, a decent share of the precipitation might come down as snow.

Snow won't immediately help with the continued dryness. It would have to melt first, to put my Captain Obvious hat on for a moment.     

Winter sports enthusiasts don't want rain. But I think we're at the point where it's OK to bank the snow now, and let the spring sunshine months from now melt the snow and finish replenishing our water. 

 

Vermont Drought Continues To Improve, Still Bad NEK; Overall Improvement In Northeast U.S.

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor released this
morning, shows improvement in Vermont. 
The Champlain Valley is no longer in 
drought, just "abnormally dry."
The area of extreme drought (red) has
decreased some in eastern Vermont. 

Vermont continues to slowly dig its way out of a severe, months-long drought, but we still need several more rainy (or snowy) months to escape the clutches of this terrible dry spell. 

This is according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, the latest edition of which just came out this morning. 

The best news concerned  the Champlain Valley, which is no longer in drought as of this week. Depending on where you are in the valley, it's the first time since either August 21 or 28 that drought conditions no longer exist in that part of the northwest Vermont 

The Champlain Valley is still regarded as abnormally dry, which means if there's any shift to dry weather again, drought could resume. 

The improvement in the Champlain Valley can also be seen in the Lake Champlain level. On Tuesday (November 11) , the lake level went above 94 feet for the first time since August 14. 

That's still about six inches below normal for this time of year. But it's better than back on October 20, when the lake was 1.3 feet or so below normal.

I've also noticed Vermont rivers are still on the low side, but stream flows have improved some from those sad little trickles we saw back in September and October. 

DROUGHT CONTINUES ELSEWHERE

The rest of Vermont is still in drought, according to this morning's Drought Monitor, but there are signs of improvement elsewhere in the Green Mountain State, too.

The area of extreme drought in the eastern and northern part of the state is a little smaller than last week. Extreme drought now covers 25 percent of the state, compared to 41 percent last week. 

The Green Mountain range, and much of Addison County improved from severe drought last week to moderate drought as of this morning. Also, most of Windham County in far southeastern Vermont was in severe drought last week, but improved to moderate drought today. 

The rest of the Northeast generally improved from last week too. Areas of extreme and severe drought shrank a little in New Hampshire. 

Northern Maine got a little drier but the rest of the state saw some improvement. The percentage of Maine in severe drought declined for the first time since mid-September. 

New York saw a little improvement in drought conditions, too.

OUTLOOK

Vermont got lucky in the past week because storms brought heavier precipitation than forecast. That trend of unexpectedly heavy rain and snow can't continue forever, but we do want it to.

Over the next week, we're not expecting boatloads of rain, snow and ice, but some precipitation is due. Which leads me to believe next week's drought monitor should, I hope see no reversals. 

Maybe it'll stay about the same as it is this week, unless the storm due Saturday night and early Sunday really surprises forecasters with a lot of rain, ice and snow. 

For now, a quarter to a little over a half inch of rain and melted snow and ice is expected in Vermont over the next seven days. Somewhat more than that is forecast in the northern and central Green Mountains 

That's not a spectacular amount of precipitation but it's now awful either. 

Long range forecasts taking us to near the end of November indicate Vermont would see near normal, or perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

Vermont Gloom And Cold: One More Awful Day, Then Gradual Improvement

Near the summit of Killington, Vermont on May 23, 2025

Everybody's talking about how gloomy and cold it's been in Vermont lately. 

For good reason. 

It's been snowing on mountain summits for two days. Just like it did on a cold day last week. I don't remember the last time it's been overcast so often in May. Even many of the days it didn't rain much were cloudy. 

And it's been cold.  Social media is full of people remarking the they had to turn on the heat, fire up the wood stove and dig out the winter clothes they just put away for the season. Today' is the fifth out of the past six days the heat's been on in my St. Albans home.

Henry the weather dog insists on curling up right up against me in bed at night to ward off the chill.

Montpelier on Friday had a record low high temperature of 47 degrees. Four of the last five days have had highs in the 40s.  Today probably won't make it to 50 degrees there, either. This at a time of year the temperature should be near 70 degrees.

So far in Montpelier this month they've had 6.16 inches of rain. And counting. Woodstock, Vermont has been deluged with about 7.5 inches of rain so far this month. In Burlington this month, only five days have  been rain-free.

When will it all end?  Not today!! 

TODAY AND BEYOND

If you liked the weather Friday you'll love today. It's more of the same.  A dark, dank overcast. Frequent bouts of light, annoying, cold rain. The only difference from Friday is the wind will pick up a little, making it seem even chillier.  

On the bright side, the atmosphere will warm up a little later today so it will finally stop snowing on the Green Mountain summits. I wouldn't suggest a hike today, though up those frigid, muddy mountains, 

But there's hope. The weather pattern that has kept stalled storms near us is slowly beginning to break down. 

On Sunday, the pesky storm that's been stalled near Maine will have moved a little further east. At least the weather will improve some.  Clouds will thin and the sun will come out at least every once in awhile. There's still a chance of showers, but they will be few and far between.  Temperature will get up near 60 degrees. That's still cool for this time of year. But at least it's better.

Memorial Day features even more improvement.  We should see a fair amount of sun.  Yes, there's still an outside chance of a shower, but they'll be few and far between, light and brief. More importantly, temperatures will rise to near 70 degrees.  That will be the first seasonably warm day since May 17.

Even better, for now, it looks like it will get into the 70s pretty much every day next week. There's not much of a chance for showers until later Thursday and Friday.  And the storm toward the end of week does not look all that impressive.

The weather pattern does favor another upper low getting stuck near New England in the final days of May and the opening few days of June.  But that might or might not happen. If it does, it won't be as cold, rainy or intense as the stuck storms we've had lately.   

Last Week's Drenching Rainstorm Improved Vermont/New England Drought Only A Little

Yes, we had heavy rain in Vermont a little over a 
week ago, but the latest U.S Drought Monitor still
has southern Vermont in drought, (orange shading)
and the rest of the state as abnormally
dry (yellow shading)

 On Wednesday, December 11, between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain drenched Vermont. That was a pretty soggy rainstorms for December, dropping almost as much precipitation as some sections of the state get all month. 

It came during a drought, so that prevented any real flood problems. Despite all the rain, the episode proved how hard it is to erase a drought once it becomes established.  These things never go away after just one good rainstorm. 

Those drought conditions did improve with the rainstorm, but only to an extent. 

Every corner of the state is still regarded as abnormally dry, even though you might have encountered a little mud underfoot this week. 

But before the storm, drought encompassed all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, which was just "abnormally dry" according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Last Wednesday's storm erased the drought that covered most of northern and central Vermont, but it's still ongoing across southern Vermont. Instead of 70 percent of Vermont in drought, only 23 percent is as of this week. 

All of southern Vermont except a narrow strip right along the New York border is still considered in drought. The southeast corner of Vermont, down by Brattleboro, is still actually in severe drought. 

As the ground freezes up for winter now, I imagine it will be hard to erase the drought or abnormally dry conditions in the state.  I'm guessing the only way we'll get rid of the dryness once and for all is to see some nice accumulations of snow building up, then some decent spring rains.

Vermont has gotten a little more precipitation since the storm on December 11, but not all that much. 

Last week's storminess also affected the rest of the Northeast, and drought improved  as a whole across that entire region as well.  A week early, about 65 percent of the Northeast was in drought, this week, it's down to 46 percent.

An area of extreme drought in Massachusetts was reduced in severity to severe drought. It doesn't sound like an improvement but it is.  Almost every state in the region saw some improvement, but the U.S. Drought Monitor says it's still going to take a lot more precipitation for true relief from the drought.

Hey, at least the forests aren't burning like they were back in November.  

The outlook is mixed for more substantial precipitation in the coming coming weeks. It looks like it will probably be drier than normal for the next week or so in Vermont, though there will still probably be some episodes of light precipitation.

It does seem possible the weather pattern could get stormier beyond about a week from now.

More Scattered Vermont Flooding Friday; Beautiful Sky Heralds End To Rain Nightmare

After flash flooding caused damage in Enosburgh Falls,
Vermont Friday, this peaceful scene greeted 
residents as the storms departed. 

 As expected, locally torrential rains triggered renewed flooding in a few spots in Vermont Friday, but that's pretty much over, and I think we can start breathing a sigh of relief.  

Most of Friday's trouble was in northwestern Vermont, which had been mostly spared all the flood grief we've been through for the past two weeks. 

Flooding was concentrated in and around Enosburgh Falls and Richford. Two sections of Route 105 were temporarily closed. One was in the Richford and East Richford area. The other was near the Dairy Center just north of Enosburgh Falls. 

Route 108 just above the dam in Enosburgh Falls was also closed for a time The basement of the Enosburgh Falls Village Offices was flooded and being pumped out Friday evening. 

Other flash flood warnings went up in parts of Addison and Rutland counties, and I'm sure there were a few washouts here and there win that neck of the woods.  So far though, no reports of super serious damage. 

Perhaps as a sign from the heavens that the two week old flood siege in Vermont might be ending, the sky over the Enosburgh area turned spectacular after the flood. As black clouds rumbled with thunder to the northeast, brilliant sun cutting in from the west lit up the trees and farm fields in bright electric green.

Brilliant rainbows lit up near the mountains. 

Indeed, for a welcome change, there are very few signs of trouble in the Vermont weather forecast. 

WHAT'S AHEAD

Today will be delightfully cool, with many of us not even making it out of the 70s.  There will be some sunshine, but also the risk of showers

For once, there's no need to freak out over those chances of rain. For most of us, any showers will be light and brief. The "hardest hit" towns today might see a quick downpour that could drop almost a quarter inch of rain - far too little to set off any new flood worries. So we're good. 

Patches of fog glow in the sun on hillsides near Enosburgh
Falls, Vermont Friday after a flooding thunderstorm
departed the area. 

Tonight will be probably be the coldest night for many of us since the third week in June. Almost everybody will get below 60 degrees. It will be a wonderful sleeping night. 

No complaints about Sunday. Expect sunshine and temperatures in the low 80s with manageable humidity. Perfect! 

The only trouble spot I see on the weather horizon is Tuesday. But I'm not too worried. We have a pretty typical mid-summer weak cold front coming in, which will probably set off a few showers and storms. 

I suppose there might be an isolated wind or water problem with Tuesday's weather, but it shouldn't be nearly as worrisome as all the recent storms we had.

It'll be on the warm side all week, with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 80s for the second half of the week.  

Long range forecasts are hinting at - but not guaranteeing - some actual cooler than normal temperatures as we open the month of August. If that happens, we'll be an exception. Most of the rest of the United States will continue baking in hot - sometimes dangerous hot weather 

Confirmed: Bullet (Mostly) Dodged Tuesday. Now, A Reprieve Until Friday

Continuing the trend of (sometimes) avoiding storm
photos, here we have a hollyhock bloom with water
droplets backlit by evening sun
Tuesday evening in St. Albans, Vermont.

I sort of anxiously peeked at today's new storm reports on the National Weather Service/South Burlington web page and found........not much. 

This pretty much confirms that we didn't have a lot of new issues on Tuesday despite a renewed flash flood threat. 

It had to be psychologically trying in hard hit Ludlow when a new flash flood warning was issued for that area. But so far, I'm not getting any reports of anything super bad down there. 

We did have a mudslide in Proctorsville Gulf, which is a sort of mini-canyon on Route 103 a little southeast of Ludlow. 

An isolated severe thunderstorm took down a couple of trees in Tunbridge. And I'm sure there were other instances here or there of a damaged back road or driveway, or a tree or two taken down in a rambunctious storm.  But Tuesday clearly did  not add that much to the destruction we've seen in Vermont this month. 

Burlington continues to be a "rain hole" in Vermont, picking up, once again, little rain. Some forecasts had called for an inch or so of rain in the Queen City on Tuesday. Instead, they picked up just 0.10 for a relatively modest total so far this month of 3.79 inches. That compares with Montpelier's total so far this month just about ten inches. 

WHAT'S NEXT

Things are definitely looking up for Vermont.  We are not entirely out of the woods with flood threats, but I'm a little  happier. 

First off, it won't rain today and tomorrow..  Wildfire smoke is still around, but it's  ittle thinner than it's been in recent days. 

Both days will bd quite warm, and moderately humid, so you want to take care of yourself, stay hydrated and not overdo things with flood cleanup.

The next chance of trouble is Friday.  Two days of dry weather won't solve the problem of saturated ground, so locally heavy rain will probably create some issues. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington indicates it will probably issue a new flood watch for parts or all of Vermont on Friday.   

Meteorologists are pretty sure Friday's rain won't cause widespread flooding, and won't' send main rivers over the their banks again. But, pinpoint locations have a shot at new flash flooding. 

Even though showers will probably continue into Saturday, those showers at this point don't seem like they'll be heavy enough to make things worse. 

Onward and upward, then! 

 

St. Albans not far behind with 0.20

Don't Worry: Spring Returns To Vermont Today. It's Already Started

Hyacinth in my St. Albans, Vermont garden buried under
snow this morning. It should be freed from its icy prison
by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 50s. 

Well, that was something.  

The past two days in Vermont were more wintry than a fair number of days were this past January. 

Trust me, though. It's ending. Now, actually. 

The worst of the cold air actually started to lose its grip on Vermont last evening.  

Places east of the Green Mountains finally rose a bit above freezing at sunset, at at time of day when temperatures would normally start to drop for the night. 

Last night was not nearly as cold as the night before. Many places in the Green Mountain State actually stayed a bit above freezing. That means there was no additional damage to garden plants, but that fact is a bit too little, too late. 

 It's too soon as of this morning to assess garden damage, at least where I am, as everything is still buried in snow.  Snow depth at my house in St Albans, was still three inches this morning. 

Plus, there hasn't been an opportunity for things to fully thaw out yet. but by afternoon, I'll be able to look and assess. The snow will be largely gone for me, and most of us by evening. At least those of us who live at relatively low elevations. 

Unlike the frigid February stuff we had to deal with Thursday, it'll get up into the 50s today. That's not super warm, but it's still well within the realm of what we should expect this time of year. Winds will still be gusty, but it definitely won't snow. 

Given the ongoing shift in the weather pattern toward a warmer one, finger crossed, I'm pretty sure snow for the season in Vermont is done, except maybe in the high elevations.

Final snowfall for 2020-21 will thus come in at 63.1 inches in Burlington,  which is 17.5 inches below normal.  It was a mild winter. And spring for that matter, with notable exceptions like the past two days. 

Tomorrow - Saturday - looks even better.  Most of us should get into the 60s by afternoon. Any lingering snow in shadows will disappear.  

A daffodil, defeated by two days of snow and subfreezing
cold, slumps and dies in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden this morning. Warmer days are ahead, though.

One frustrating thing I've noticed this spring is the only time we get any badly needed precipitation, it comes in the form of a cold storm that involves a bunch of snow.  This has happened three times this month, with snow on April 1, 15-16 and 21-22.

When it turns warmer, it dries out.  We can't seem to muster any warm rains. 

We still need a boatload of rain. The recent storms helped a little, but we need several inches of rain to erase lingering dryness.  As of yesterday's weekly report, the U.S. Drought Monitor still showed virtually all of Vermont still experiencing moderate drought. 

Lo and behold, now that it's warming up, the precipitation for us is shutting down again.  

Forecasts for rainfall with Sunday's expected storm system keep going lower and lower.  Early estimates were for nearly an inch.  It's beginning to look as if we'll be lucky to get a quarter inch. At least it will be rain, not snow, right?

Sunday and especially Monday will be chilly and raw, but again, not anything unusual for this time of year.  At least it will get up into the 50s by day.  

It'll warm up dramatically during the upcoming week.  We even have a shot of touching 80 degrees next Thursday.  

However, I don't see many chances of substantial rain coming up next week. And longer range forecasts look "meh" in the precipitation department. At least we won't have to deal with more snow, though.