Back To Reality. Vermont To Turn Colder, Wetter, And Eventually Maybe Snowier.

Fog and a gray atmosphere this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. The warm, sunny weather we enjoyed for the 
last few days is over, in favor of typical cloudy,
rainy, cold November weather. 

Friday was another gorgeous day in Vermont the last we will see for a long time. Depending on your definition of gorgeous, of course. 

Some people love the gloomy, gray, wet and cold days of November. If you're in that camp, there's great news. 

Typical November weather is moving in. Starting today. 

Otherwise, I guess we can bask in the memory of yesterday. It was particularly sunny and warm in western Vermont. Some clouds were overhead in southeast Vermont, but it was still a pretty nice day down there. 

Highs were in the 60s statewide. You can't beat that. At least this time of year. 

We're on the cusp of an El Nino winter now. And this is an extreme El Nino, so there's always a chance things could get wildly interesting at times in the coming months. 

My experience with past big El Nino winters  in Vermont is that they feature bouts of very warm, often record-breaking warmth, and/or nasty or even destructive storms. In between, you get long periods of pretty average weather. 

El Nino springs are often even more volatile, but we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

We just had our first spell of record breaking warmth. Now, it's going back to normal, but we could get a decent-sized storm in a week or so. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

We're starting off mild again, as temperatures were in the 40s at dawn. It was overcast and foggy, too, and it's not going to clear up, not at all. As of 8:30 this morning there was very little rain in Vermont. Yet.

Highs should only make it to the 50s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year. 

However, that upper level low spinning in New York State. During the day, you'll see increasing rain moving in traveling east to west across Vermont. 

Forecasters have upped the amount of rain northern Vermont will receive, and keeping it about the same as early predictions south. That means pretty much all of us will receive a quarter to a half inch of rain this afternoon and tonight. 

I'm still a little skeptical about the north. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us north of Route 2 receive a little less than a quarter inch. 

SUNDAY

Early in the morning, before dawn, the very highest elevations will have switched to snow.  It doesn't look like there will be much accumulation. We might just see a new record set in Vermont. 

The latest in the season that the summit of Mount Mansfield had the first inch of snow on the ground was November 9, 1985. If there's less than an inch of snow at the summit tomorrow morning,  we have a good shot at seeing that record broken. 

Any rain will tend to taper off in the morning. It'll stay cloudy and cool, though some areas, especially in western Vermont could see some sunshine late in the afternoon, not long before sunset. 

Highs should get to near 50 or so, which is close to average for this time of year. 

MONDAY

The week will feature some rapid fire quick hits of light rain and snow in a fast northwest flow.  Little disturbances will zing through northern New England quickly, each with a package of light precipitation. 

The first one comes through Monday, with a little light rain. No biggie.   Most of the light rain should come through in the morning and early afternoon, but we can't rule out sprinkles extending through all day. Monday will be seasonably cool with a high near 50 degrees.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

More weak, rapid-fire disturbances will zip through, typical of November. That means mostly cloudy skies, and nearly and ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. Highs should be in the 40s to near 50. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

We're starting to see signs that a major storm could hit New England. It's really, really uncertain at this point. So there's no reason to panic. The storm could go harmlessly out to sea. It could go inland. It could go right along the coast. It's possible the storm might not form at all. 

There's some social media hype that we'd get a major snowstorm here in Vermont. But that's hype. I suppose it's possible we could get snow out of this, but it's way, way, WAY to soon to think about that. 

So, don't worry about it for now. Listen to forecasts later in the week, and we'll have much better handle on it then. 

The Cold, Blustery Weather Is Here As A Vermont Autumn Deepens

There's subtle fall foliage in pine trees, too. The late 
afternoon sun lights up the golden tone of pine
needles on the trees that are about to fall
off as autumn continues 

The strong cold front passed through Vermont his morning, setting off no more than some scattered showers. There was briefly a weird, heavy one east of St. Albans, but for most of us, it was just light stuff. And widely scattered. Many places got no rain at all.  

 Today and tomorrow will give us our first bout with wind chills. The actual air temperature will be chilly, of course, but winds will make it feel noticeably worse. As always. let's get into it:

TODAY

A slot of drier air will give us some partly sunny skies this morning with mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Maybe more partly sunny in the lower Connecticut River Valley.  

The cold air flooding in, combined with with a secondary cold front could set off a few light, cold showers here and there, but those won't be anything to worry about. 

After peaking in the 55 to 60 degree range later this afternoon, temperatures should slowly fall this afternoon as the west and northwest winds pick up. Wind chills will fall through the 40s today, and into the 30s overnight as the wind continues to blow.

Since the wind will continue to blow overnight tonight, we won't settle into a calm, hard frost. Instead, temperatures will fall to near 32 degrees across much of the state. That's still a garden killer, frost or not. You'll still need to do your emergency pre-frost harvest today.

The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, will probably eke out a night staying above freezing.

TUESDAY

It'll be another blustery and cool day. But with more sunshine. By blustery, I don't mean howling, screaming winds. Just gusts in the 20 to 30 mph. Enough to make it feel cooler than it is. The wind today and tomorrow will probably push the foliage past peak in the Northeast Kingdom, but the colors will remain safe in the rest of the state. The wind is certainly by no means anything unusual. 

Highs temperatures Tuesday should rise only just to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

The air will get very. very dry, especially during the afternoon. If you have trouble with dry skin and chapped lips, this will not be your day. 

Tuesday night will be the cold, frosty one. Most places in Vermont will have a garden season-ending frost. The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, could escape the frost. Especially since a very gentle south winds could begin to blow in the few hours before sunrise.

WEDNESDAY

The cold high pressure will head off to our east. South winds will pick up, and it will get gusty again in the Champlain Valley.  But it will be a little warmer, as highs get to near 60 degrees, give or take. Skies should stay partly sunny.

THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND

We'll be in a fast westerly pattern with weak cold fronts and disturbances coming in every other day or so, give or take. That means seasonable temperatures, periods of somewhat windy weather and very little rain.

 

Forest Fire Burning East Of Middlebury, Vermont Amid Dry Conditions. Rain Finally Comes Tonight, Tomorrow

In this image from Adirondack Drone via Facebook, smoke
 can be seen coming from the forest near Ripton. 

The dry weather and high fire danger yesterday in Vermont yielded at least one large wildfire. At least large by Vermont standards.  

A fire broke out in the around Ripton and East Middlebury. At last report it has burned through 56 acres, mostly in state and national forests. The fire forced the closure during the day and evening along North Branch Road near Route 125.

Firefighting efforts stopped as darkness fell, even though the fire wasn't officially contained. It was dangerous to battle the fire in the dark, especially since it wasn't threatening any homes and winds had become lighter. The firefighters are back on the job this morning. 

It's no surprise that the fire spread so readily. Winds gusted to 30 mph and it hasn't rained in over a week. 

The dry conditions have really accumulated through a lack of rain recently. Through yesterday, we've gone eight consecutive days with no precipitation. That's the longest such streak since 10 days on October 8-17 last year. 

This past weekend was rain-free, the first such weekend since October 25-26.  Last Saturday and Sunday's weather ended a tie for the third  longest stretch of consecutive weekends with at least at trace of precipitation. As measured in Burlington, anyway. It was 26 weekends, by the way. 

You might remember that early last summer, before the big drought started, we ended a record long 32 consecutive weekends with at least a trace of rain. That record streak ended on July 27, 2025.

The dry, high fire danger weather will continue one more day. The details: 

TODAY

The day has started rather cloudy in Vermont over all but the far northeast corner of the state. There have even been some sprinkles in far northwestern Vermont. 

But the sky will at least partly clear, the humidity will remain low and breezes will continue.  The high fire danger will continue.  The firefighters in the forests and hills east of Middlebury will have a challenging day.  

Aside from the fire danger, we'll enjoy one more warm day.  It'll become partly sunny. Highs will once again reach 70 degrees for most of us, just as they have over the past two days. 

The spate of balmy afternoons has started to green up some of the trees. Most of the trees are still bare, but the hillsides are starting to show spotty, hazy areas of green,  Eventually, the forest leaf out will make Vermont's spring fire season subside. 

Once those leaves are fully out, the strong late spring and summer sun won't be able to penetrate to the forest floor and dry things out.  Leaves release moisture, raising the humidity to cut the potential of fires. 

But we have a much quicker way to get rid of the fire danger, at least for now.

THURSDAY

Overnight tonight, clouds will thicken up.  Some showers might come in late tonight. But the bulk of the rain will come in during the early morning hours Thursday.  The rain will continue through most of the morning, then turn lighter and showery during the afternoon. 

It'll be a much cooler day. Haul out the jackets and fleece again as highs will only make it into the 50s. 

This won't be a blockbuster rainstorm. In fact, forecasters have cut back on how much rain will fall. But the expected half inch or so of rain will get rid of the fire dangers, unless or until it stops raining again. 

Spoiler: It's going to rain again 

FRIDAY AND BEYOND

The new, chillier, long lasting weather pattern is now set in stone. All the computer models keep us mostly cool, and mostly at risk for showers almost every day through mid-May.

Friday and Saturday don't look particularly wet. There should be some showers both days  mostly over the north and mountains, and mostly in the afternoons and evenings. 

We'll have some sun both days, especially in broader valleys. But high temperatures will barely make it to 50 in most of the state. It'll be in the 40s for highs in the Northeast Kingdom, mid 50s warmer southern valleys. 

It'll warm up somewhat early next week. At least temporarily. It'll probably get up to 60 degrees on a couple days, maybe Tuesday and Wednesday. Now that we'll be getting into May, that's actually still a couple degrees cooler than average. But we'll still  have that chance of showers on those days.  

It's Finally Getting Cold-Ish, But No Real Winter Weather Quite Yet

Remarkable amount of fall color for October 28 remained
in Richmond, Vermont yesterday. Trees are holding onto
their leaves longer than I can ever remember in this
remarkably balmy autumn of 2021.

 For the second morning in a row, there was a pretty good frost here in St. Albans, Vermont.  That's typical for this time of year, of course, but still notable in this persistently warm autumn.

The cooler weather in the past couple of days is a sign we're over that incredibly warm regime, at least for now. 

There's no real balmier than average weather coming in the foreseeable future. As we head into November, we get........normal November conditions. How novel!  

Meanwhile, the warmth has kept the fall foliage on the trees much longer than I can ever remember in Vermont. Driving around the Champlain Valley in yesterday's crisp, blue sky delightfulness, I was amazed at how pretty it still is out there. 

The "triplets," what I call three huge poplar trees in my back yard, are still mostly green, and have only shown signs of yellowing leaves in the past couple days.

By October 28, we're normally quite into stick season.

If you some sort of dark individual who is sick of gorgeous autumn colors, you're in luck this weekend. Another wet, somewhat gusty storm will breeze through over the weekend.  This won't be a blockbuster, but most of us will see a half inch to an inch of rain.  On the western slopes of the Green Mountains, some places could gust to 40 mph. The rest of us should see peak gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range over the weekend.

That should knock down quite a few remaining leaves.

After the weekend, we'll be in what is know as a cyclonic flow. That just means that next week, there's low pressure to our north in Canada. This will create brisk from the west and northwest, there will be lots of clouds, with scattered rain and snow showers. (Most of the snow will be in the mountains, of course).

So yeah, typical November.

For what it's worth, the six to 10 day outlook from NOAA has us in below normal temperatures for the period November 3 to 7.  This is the first time in quite awhile I've seen a forecast for 6 to 10 days out that didn't depict normal or warm temperatures for us. 

This won't be a full plunge into winter, thank goodness, as I for one am not ready for that.