Sort Of A Stormy Easter Morning In Vermont, Gets Better Later

I know it's disappointing to wake up on Easter Morning to find it rather stormy out - rainy enough to soak and ruin your Easter bonnet and windy enough to blow it away. 

The first part of April is never pretty, and that was the 
case this Easter morning in St. Albans, Vermont. After
an expected throwback to winter, the progress of spring
will accelerate later next week 

But who the hell wears an Easter bonnet anymore? The Easter egg hunts might have to be postponed a bit, too, which might be a bummer.

But since this is all about ME!!!!!!, I personally like waking up on raw and wet Sunday morning in a cozy house. I can hear the wind blown rain clattering faintly on the metal roof, and the dull roar of winds still blowing through leafless trees, the gray skies, all starting the day quietly, contemplatory. 

We did - as expected - end up getting winds just as strong as the gusts we had Friday morning, but they came in the hours just after midnight, when we were less likely to notice them. The wind advisory that was in effect was justified.

Winds at the sandbar on Route 2 in Milton got to 59 mph. Jay saw gusts to 53 mph; Morrisville, 51 mph and Panton, 49 mph. There were plenty of gusts statewide in the 30s and 40s mph. Not enough to cause widespread problems but enough to rattle the shutters. 

Early this morning, roughly 2,800 homes and businesses had no power, mostly in the northern Green Mountains. 

REST OF TODAY/TOMORROW

The rain that moved in before dawn is now tending to suppress the wind somewhat. That rain should mostly move out by shortly after noon.  We'll end up with a third of an inch of new rain, give or take, so we're safe from any flooding. This afternoon will actually be OK, with temperatures hovering near 50, with breaks of sun and southwest breezes.

At least as measured in Burlington, there have only been two Aprils without so much as a snow flurry in Burlington (1941 and 2005).  This year won't join those two illustrious Aprils.

First of all, there's already been a snow flurry on April 1.  And more are probably on the way.  Progressively colder and colder air will start coming in this afternoon and night, setting the stage for some spring snow showers. 

Tomorrow will be chilly, but it won't be the worst of it. High should make it to the upper 30s northern highlands to upper 40s warmest southern valley floors.  There could be a few snow flurries in the mountains. 

THE COLD PEAKS

As the cold air continue to pour in Monday night and early Tuesday, more snow showers should blossom. For now, anyway, forecasts have measurable snow statewide by the end of the day Tuesday, though I have my doubts about this for warmer southern valleys. 

Tuesday will be a throwback to winter, with many of us receiving a dusting to an  inch of snow. Some  northern towns will probably never get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will get into the teens to low 20s. Spring will be on temporary hold.  Don't worry, happens every year. 

SPRING RETURNS

Strong high pressure, which initially will contribute to our nippy April weather, will warm us up as it passes nearly overhead and then off the east coast Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon, it'll get well into the 40s, which is still a little cooler than normal. But the strong April sun will make it feel much better.

After that, we get a huge break. April can be notoriously tempestuous, but the second half of next week and next weekend look anything but. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will get spring flowers and plants and tree buds going, and no notable storms are on the way. 

Sure, this Easter morning is gray and brown and muddy and ugly, as early April is in Vermont. But that promise of spring keeps getting more and  more real. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Ice/Rain Update: UG-LEE

Forecasted amounts of ice for tonight and early 
tomorrow have ticked up somewhat. Red areas can
expect a quarter inch of ice. This could be enough
for isolated power outage. Whether or not the
power stays on, road conditions in the yellow
orange and red shaded areas will be 
terrible overnight and early Thursday. 

We entered today into what I consider the worst or at best, the very least pleasant stretch of weather in Vermont this winter.   

That's saying something, considering how stormy it's been since late November.  

As I said this morning, I hope you like rain, freezing rain, drizzle, freezing rain and fog/freezing fog. 

Sun is a distant memory. We haven't seen it since Monday morning, and we won't see it again until Sunday at the earliest. But more likely not until Monday. 

The storminess we're entering into isn't the strongest of the winter. But it's the ugliest.  

This afternoon, temperatures did manage to get above freezing in much of western Vermont, but it still was a lousy day with low, gray clouds, an unpleasant south breeze, and patchy fog and drizzle. 

 A warm front of sorts has passed through western Vermont, but has stalled out before reaching far northern and much of eastern Vermont.

As a result, much of central and eastern Vermont held near or a bit below freezing. 

Both these facts kind of spell out our future tonight into Saturday night.  Before we get into it, since temperatures will be so close to the freezing mark, some of what I outline might end up being a little off. Some areas might get a bit more ice than expected, others might see a little less. 

But less slide on into the forecast: 

TONIGHT

The air has warmed up aloft quite a bit since this morning. So a new area of precipitation that was just entering our area as of 5 p.m. is pretty much all rain.  Not snow like this morning. 

But the low level cold air is hanging tough along and east of the Greens. That means it will be mostly freezing rain overnight in those place. I don't recommend driving anywhere in those areas from about now (5:30 p.m. Wednesday) to Thursday morning. 

Parts of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway thawed today,
while other parts remained solidly frozen. A cold
rain tonight will likely add to the ice, despite
temperatures expected to be marginally above freezing

Forecast rainfall amounts have also ticked up since this morning. That makes me wonder whether power outages will be an issue in parts of eastern Vermont.  I don't think it will be anywhere near as extensive as during those awful wind storms on January 10 and 13. 

But a quarter inch of ice accumulation is where tree branches and power lines start to have trouble. Some areas in eastern Vermont will have that much. 

On the bright side, widespread power outages usually don't start happening unless there's more than a half inch of ice, and that isn't in the forecast through Thursday morning. 

In western Vermont, enough cold air might bleed in from the north tonight to make parts of Franklin County pretty icy.  Even if it stays above freezing, the rain will freeze on cold surfaces that aren't treated with salt. I'm talking back roads, driveways, sidewalks, that sort of thing.

I noticed today at my place in St Albans, Vermont, parts of my driveway thawed, while the ice has hung on stubbornly in other sections. We don't salt our driveway, because that would hurt the paws of Jackson the Weather Dog. My driveway is just an example of how things will play out tonight. 

THURSDAY 

Another lousy day in Vermont. The main batch of rain and freezing rain will move out by dawn or shortly thereafter.

That will leave us under a layer of low, thick clouds. We'll have areas of fog and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle. If you have Seasonal Affective Disorder,  this will be another tough one. 

Especially since another round of rain and freezing rain will be on our doorstep. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

That will come in overnight Thursday night and last well into Friday.  I suspect the freezing rain won't be quite as widespread as tonight but that's not a guarantee. I still worry about a few places that don't thaw out Thursday, then get more freezing rain Friday.

Friday will be another day of low clouds, fog, drizzle and light rain and/or freezing rain. In some placed all that will keep freezing.  Where it remains above freezing it'll only be in the mid 30s. That's quite warm for this time of year, but bone chilling given the fog and drizzle.

BEYOND FRIDAY

It'll stay mild Saturday and maybe into Sunday, but the clouds will hang tough. We're still watching yet another storm later Sunday. So far, it's still looking like that one will stay too far south to give us much precipitation. Even if it does, the atmosphere will have cooled enough to give us snow, not freezing rain. 

Cross your fingers but longer range forecasts indicate we just might have a quiet weather week next week. Sometimes boring weather is a good thing.