We Got Through Our Cold Vermont Rainy Day, Coming Up: A Hard To Predict Cool Regime

After a chilly, rainy day with a low gray overcast dawn until'
evening. Here in St. Albans, though, the sun broke through
right at sunset, giving us a brief burst of bright light
to promise a return of nicer weather in the coming days. 

Yesterday worked out about as expected, with day long rains soaking the ground and getting trees and plants a boost to keep bursting out in spring green.  

Rainfall amounts were close to forecasts in most places. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland all had something close to an inch of rain. Bennington and Springfield had a little over a half inch, which was - again - in line with forecasts. 

Burlington was an exception. They only got a half inch or so of rain yesterday. Which means that long term record for most rain May 6, which is 0.85 in 1894 still stands.

Although surface winds were from the north, keeping Burlington's temperatures in the 40s all day, the moisture flow was from the southwest. I think the Adirondacks were blocking some of the moisture from the Champlain Valley. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Part of the answer to that question, What's Next, is, who knows? We have that dip in the jet stream that will keep us cooler than average on most, but maybe not all days over the next week to 10 days. 

Today and tomorrow look pretty straight forward. We'll have sun, with clouds mixing in, especially near the mountains. One minute the sun will be out, the next it won't, them it will reappear. The chances of showers are pretty low, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be good. 

Both today and tomorrow will be cool for the season, but at least it will be much warmer than yesterday.  Most of Vermont should reach into the 50s both days.

WEEKEND

Here's where we are a bit at a loss as to what will happen. The broad brush idea is pretty clear. A weak warm front will come through Saturday, bringing temperatures ever so slightly warmer to the upper 50s to near 60. 

It'll be even warmer Sunday. with highs in the 60s. That might seem pretty warm, but now we're so late into the spring that 60s is exactly normal. We also have chances of showers both days. 

Fine, but how many showers and how much rain will fall?  The weather systems circulating through the big dip in the jet stream parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast are kind of small and fast moving. And they're interacting with each other in a way that makes it hard to predict their exact path.

So figuring out where the best moisture will set up, where the showers will concentrate, when the showers will arrive and leave is hard to tell. 

Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, you might get away with it, but you are taking chances. I noticed meteorologists are trying to time out when the showers will hit and where the rain will come down the hardest. So far, it looks like most of the daylight hours on Sunday might stay dry, but that forecast could easily change. 

Actually, expect forecast changes from Saturday onward into next week.   The good news is that whatever happens, we won't have any extreme weather over the next several days. No scary thunderstorms. It'll be cool, with even a frost risk on some nights.  But no hard freezes. Also, no torrential rains  no floods. And no snow, aside from a slight risk of flakes at the tippy top of the mountains, maybe,