The Script Flips: Vermont To Go From Chilly, Showery To Summer Warm And Dry

Storm clouds gather over St. Albans, Vermont late Sunday
afternoon. While no hail fell here, thunderstorms 
produced a lot of small hail in some Vermont towns.
This week brings sunshine and warmer air. 

 Another day, another chill in the air, and even some ice.

That was yesterday, of course. Despite a brief burst of sunshine in many areas, especially north, highs were only in the 60s, which was still below normal for this time of year. Southern areas stayed cloudy much of the day. 

That afternoon break in the clouds allowed thunderstorms to develop in Quebec and the head south into Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. 

Although the thunderstorms weren't really severe, the very cold air aloft made it easy for the storms to form hail. That hail came down pretty hard in a few spots, whitening the ground. 

And in some places the hail was fairly big, all things considered. Near Richford, the hail had a half inch diameter,  which is more or less the size of a dime. Several other towns reported the ground covered by pea sized hail. 

RETURN TO SUMMER

A big flip flop has started in the atmosphere overhead. Perfect timing as we flip the calendar to the summer month of June. 

A big southward dip in the jet stream in the eastern U.S, made the past few days frustrating to at least some of us. The air stayed cool. Showers always seemed to threaten and it even snows on many of northern New England mountain peaks Friday night and Saturday morning. 

The past few days have contributed to a May that turned out on the cool side. I'll have a good summary of the interesting weather month of May, 2026 hopefully later today

Those days are gone.  Or at least going. A big northward bulge in the jet stream wants to develop over us. That's coming quicker than we originally thought. A few days ago, we thought most of this week would be cool and unsettled.

But nope! The weather gods are smiling upon Vermont again, fingers crossed. Warm high pressure will become established nearby as a result. It won't exactly be record warmth, u,t you'll definitely notice the changes. And by later in the week, you mind well find yourself out in the garden with a hose, soaking thirsty plants. 

Here are the details: 

Today

We're beginning the process of warming up today, but it won't exactly feel like full on summer. Under at least partly sunny skies, we should flirt with 70 degrees in the warmer valleys and 60s elsewhere. That's still a little on the cool side, believe it or not. The forecast high in Burlington today is 71, compared to a normal of 74 degrees.

Fog from early this morning should either be burning off or gone by the time you read this. There should be some afternoon clouds, mainly over the north and mountains. but even those areas should have some sun. 

We might even find an isolated sprinkle coming out of one or two of those clouds, but nobody will get soaked. Wider valleys will be sunnier. 

Tonight will be quite cool for early June, but not insanely so. Lows should be in the low 40s most places. Maybe in the mid 40s Champlain Valley and mid to upper 30s in the usual cold spots. The coldest  hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have a little frost, but the vast majority of us should be fine. 

Tuesday:

A winner of a day. Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. 'Nuff said.

Wednesday 

Another stellar day. Hey, we deserve 'em after what we endured over the past few days. OK, "endured" is a really strong word for the mildly unpleasant moments in the weather in recent days, but you know what I mean. 

Here's where it begins to feel like summer. Many of the warmer valleys should touch 80 degrees if the forecast holds. The high sun angle will make it feel pretty toasty out, but the humidity should still be low.

Thursday.

It actually gets kind of hot by later in the week if the forecast is right. Vermont valleys should make it into the mid and upper 80s for the afternoon. 

Friday/Next Weekend 

Some cold fronts and other weather disturbances should get close to Vermont by then. It's too early to tease out when the showers hit, how big they'll be or how long they would last. But those potential cold fronts don't look like they will be powerhouses, so there's little chance we'll freeze our butts off again when then come through. 

At worst, they'll probably just bring near normal temperatures. Which for this time of year is 70s for highs. 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Snow In Vermont Mountains This Morning. It's Clearing Up, But Summer Weather Remains Days Away

Snow at the measuring stake near the top of
Sugarbush Resort, Vermont, elevation
 about 4,000 feet as snow dusted the 
peaks of New England overnight. 
 

 Our impressive and cold storm that came at us from Canada is winding down, and yes, it did snow in the mountains. 

I was checking out web cams, and the cameras that aren't frozen solid at summit definitely showed snow. 

The Bolton Mountain web cam showed wind-blown flurries early this morning. The Heaven's Gate web cam atop Sugarbush Ski Resort, at about 4,000 feet elevation showed a solid coating of snow 

The rainfall from this storm was impressive for what should be a cold, dry storm from the Arctic. The dynamics in this thing were incredible and were really able to wring the moisture out of the air. 

Montpelier has had at least 1.37 inches - it was still raining lightly there when I checked. St. Johnsbury clocked in at 1.73 inches. I'm betting we'll have a couple places in the Northeast Kingdom go over two inches. 

Enough rain fell around the White Mountains that a flood warning was issued for the area around Conway, New Hampshire. The Saco River there was expected to reach minor flood stage there. 

Weather geeks like me were fascinated by this storm. It was tiny in area, but it has been a powerhouse. While it was still in Quebec, the storm formed a cold front of sorts that managed to sweep a line of some strong thunderstorms through parts of northern New York and Vermont. Radar indicated outflow winds of 50 mph or so over Lake Champlain.

The "cold front" became more south to north oriented or even southeast to northwest oriented over eastern Vermont. That tapped a moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean, helping to explain the heavy rains. 

Further west, there was a sharp cutoff in the amount of rainfall. Burlington has 0,6 inches of rain. Plattsburgh had a little under a half inch. 

The storm was pulling away to the south and east as of 9 a.m. this morning, taking its precipitation with it. 

REST OF TODAY

Radar mage of the storm last night at around 10:30 p.m.
The center of the storm was about over Montreal
at the time. 

It's actually going to be a fairly nice day after the rest of the rain stops this morning. It was already sunny and breezy here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. That trend will cover the entire state today. 

It'll feel like the end of April instead of the end of May. Temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 50s, with maybe a couple low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY

Another disturbance will come in from the north much like last night's did. But this one will be much weaker. 

We'll just have increasing clouds with a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs should get well into the 60s, but that's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More cool weather, more showers as a deep dip in the jet stream stays over or just east of New England.  Much of the time will be dry, and highs will e in the 60s to near 70

BEYOND TUESDAY. It looks like the deep dip in the jet stream might evolve into a cut off low near or just off the East Coast. A cut off low is a storm that meanders around, not moving north because the jet stream has moved off to the north. The jet stream being to the north, there's nothing to push the storm along. 

Fingers crossed, the cut off low will hopefully be too far south to bother us. If that forecasts pans out, then the second half of the week would be dry and warm. 

Actually It's Going To Be TWO Rainy, Chilly Spells In Vermont. The First One Tonight Is The Snowy One

The blooming irises and budding peonies in low elevation
St. Albans, Vermont certainly don't have to worry about
snow tonight, but Vermont's mountain summits could
well be white by Saturday morning. 

We're still on for our weird, cold storm tonight, but different parts of Vermont will have very different weather conditions. 

Here's the latest updates:

SNOW

Forecasters have actually lowered the elevations at which they expect snow to fall tonight. They now expect snow as low as 3,000 feet above sea level, taking the flakes pretty far below summits. 

This won't be a big summit snowstorm by any means, but places near 3,000 feet or a little higher could get a slushy coating to a half inch of snow. Summits might see 1 to 2 inches, maybe more if there are any cold surprises. 

In eastern Vermont especially, the National Weather Service says a few flakes could fall at elevations as low as 2,000 or 2,500 feet, though no snow will accumulate at such a low elevation. 

Keep all this in mind if you have a big Saturday morning hike planned. Either postpone it or dress for a winter hike, your choice. 

RAIN

The cold, small but intense bowling ball of a storm that has blasted down from the Arctic Circle and was making its way southward through Quebec toward New England this morning. The direction of the storm is odd enough, most of them come from the west or south, not from the Great White North. 

When storms do come from the north or northwest, they tend to be pretty dry affairs, with light precipitation. There's no warm ocean up that way to add a lot of moisture to the atmosphere. But this storm is so dynamic that it's able to squeeze every bit of moisture it can out of the air. 

The Northeast Kingdom, along with northern New Hampshire and western Maine, can expect more than an inch of rain between this afternoon and noon Saturday. The area around New Hampshire's White Mountains could receive two inches of rain. That will probably translate to a LOT of snow atop Mount Washington, which is New England's highest peak.

Rainfall amounts will fall sharply as you move away from the Northeast Kingdom. Places a little north and east of Interstate 89 can expect up to three quarters of an inch.  The Champlain Valley would get a half inch north up near St. Albans and Alburgh, tapering to a quarter inch south of Burlington. 

Southern Vermont only gets a tenth of an inch out of this. 

TIMING

Light showers were already scattered around northern New York and Vermont as of 9 a.m. The showers will start to increase in intensity and number north later this morning or early afternoon and spread south and east. There could be a rumble of thunder because the storm is so dynamic. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will fall rapidly from the 60s through the 50s. Tonight's lows will be between 38 and 45, except low 30s above 3,000 feet.

SATURDAY

The rain should taper off pretty early in the day.  The morning should feel pretty chilly and blustery, but the sun should come out in most areas during the afternoon. That'll boost temperatures into the 55 to 65 degree range, depending on whether you are fairly high up in elevation north or a low elevation south. That's pretty cool for this time of year, but it's actually pretty nice for outdoor activities. 

SUNDAY

Part of the day will be nice. By early afternoon, most of us should see temperatures within a few degrees either side of 70. But the next cool storm from the north will start to arrive in the afternoon with its batch of showers. 

This cool batch of rain isn't as cold or as intense as the one we're getting tonight. So it shouldn't snow in the mountains and rain in the Northeast Kingdom will be lighter than tonight's go around. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

We'll have trouble getting rid of this weather pattern, so it will be relatively cool and showery at least through Tuesday. But it could last until the end of the week, depending on which weather model you believe. Stay tuned! 

Yes, It's A Cold Shot Coming To New England, But Not THAT Cold

I always post National Weather Service snowfall prediction
maps in the winter. I couldn't resist posting their snowfall
forecast for this weekend. As you can see, an inch or less
is expected in the high elevations, with maybe a couple
inches atop Mount Marcy, New York. 

 I've been hyping up the so-called cold snap and mountaintop snows coming Friday night and Saturday morning, but we actually should't complain. The weather over the next few days in Vermont really won't be that awful. 

Even Saturday won't be a total disaster. 

It's true that yesterday was the last warmer than normal day we'll see in Vermont for awhile. But this time of year, it can get dreadfully hot and humid.  We don't have to worry about that! 

In the past, it's also gotten much colder than what we're expecting this weekend.  For instance, the record low high temperature on Saturday in Burlington is 50 degrees. The forecast high is 59. 

Instead of all that, outdoor temperatures will be comfortably in 60s daily today through next Tuesday, except for Saturday. And there's no chance of frost except maybe in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom

We'll call today and tomorrow partly to variably cloudy with just a chance of isolated showers. It will be dry most of the time. Later Friday afternoon will tend to cloud up with a rising chance of showers north as our fast moving "bowling ball" of cold air comes toward us, fresh from the  Arctic Circle. 

THE COLD AIR

The pool of cold air will be over us mostly overnight Friday and Sunday morning. That's when the bulk of the rain (and snow!) will fall. There will probably be a dusting of snow at elevations above 3,500 feet and in higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom. 

Rainfall for us valley dwellers will vary a lot, with less than a quarter inch south, a third of an inch maybe in the Champlain Valley, a half inch north and east of Interstate 89 and maybe more than three quarters of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom.

Saturday morning will certainly be cold and raw, but some breaks of sun will make things OK in many areas by mid to late afternoon.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Those highs in the 60s during this period will be about five to 10 degrees cooler than average, but well take it. We'll have periods of sun, but also the risk of showers. So it will be the run inside when the rain hits, and a half hour later, it's back outside into the sunshine. t's hard to time out when, those showers might arrive, but the best chance is probably Sunday night and Monday. 

For those of you who like warm summer weather and dislike this cool stuff, there's hope for you, too. The weather pattern will start to change during the middle of next week, and it looks like we'll have at least spells of average to somewhat warmer than average temperatures starting the second half of next week. 

The usual caveat applies: Long range forecasts are iffy, so no promises! 

Gliding Downhill From Summer To (Briefly) Early Spring. How Rare Is Mountain Snow In Late May?

It can snow this late in the season on New England's 
mountaintops. Photo is of eight inches of snow atop
Mount Washington, New Hampshire, June 11, 2023

 Tuesday was a classic summer day. Yes, it's still May but work with me here. Highs in the 80s, sunshine and a slight haze really made me think of July. 

Soon enough, we'll think it's March again.

The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday. Today will be another sunny one, but slightly cooler with highs in the 70s to low 80s. 

We start to really feel the cool air tomorrow as highs only reach the 60s.  The cold air aloft will bring us a slight chance of light showers.  Friday will be cooler yet as the showers arrive in earnest in the afternoon. 

The core of the cold air - a bowling ball of frigidity from near the North Pole - will arrive in New England Friday night and early Saturday. Yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the mountains. Pretty high up, actually.  Probably at elevations of 4,000 feet and higher.

That means the tippy tops of Vermont's highest peaks could easily turn white. So too, the summits of New York's Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains. 

The rest of us will endure cold rain showers and temperatures hover in the low to mid 40s Saturday morning. 

HOW UNUSUAL?

Snow so late in the season is pretty unusual for this time of year. Except at places like the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. I believe it has snowed every month of the year up there. 

Late May and June snows are in New England's history quite liberally. According to the Vermont Weather Book:

There is, of course, the famous Year Without a Summer in 1816. On June 7, snow covered the ground all day in Montpelier and drifts reached 20 inches deep in Danville. 

Even more remarkably, a bigger snowstorm hit Vermont on June 11, 1842. Irasburg reported 10 inches of sow and Bennington had four inches. 

In 1884, a large snowfall hit Vermont's mountains, with accumulating even in the valleys. Lunenburg had two inches of snow. 

There hasn't been anything as dramatic as those examples in modern times, but it does snow this time of year. The latest in the season snow flurry in Burlington on record hit on May 31, 1945. Don't worry, Burlington is safe from snow with this go around Friday night and Saturday. 

On May 24-25, 2013, snow fell at elevations as low as 750 above sea level in Vermont. Mount Mansfield received 13.2 inches of snow, its greatest snow fall for so late in the season. Whiteface Mountain, New York came in with a whopping 34 inches. 

I wish I could find information on the following but I can't. I seem to remember snow falling at elevations as low as 600 feet in the early 1990s. The Bolton 'Valley ski area got a couple inches, I believe. 

On June 10, 2023, Mount Washington, New Hampshire had over eight inches of snow, making it their snowiest June on record. It didn't get quite cold enough on Vermont peaks to snow that day.   The cold and snow hit on what was otherwise a very hot summer.

CAN'T STAY COLD

Even when the forces of nature say otherwise, it really can't stay cold, or at least not that cold, this time of year. 

Saturday should stay in the nippy 50s. But despite that cold air coming from Canada, highs should be in the 60s daily Sunday through Tuesday. That's cool for this time of year but still comfortable. It should warm up more later next week. Summer is definitely not canceled. 

Quick Shot Of Summer To Be Followed By Weekend Chill

Lilacs in the foreground, lilacs in the background on this
sunny, warm late May morning in Vermont. But some
"interesting" weather could arrive this weekend. 

It was definitely a soaker of a Memorial Day weekend in Vermont, with virtually everyone receiving at least three quarters of an inch of rain and most places going over an inch. 

The heaviest rain seemed to be in central Vermont, where two day totals included 1.8 inches in Hinesburg, 1.76 inches in Vergennes 1.71 inches in West Bridgewater and 1.68 inches in Warren. 

Also, the last of the snow melted atop Mount Mansfield over the weekend. There was no measurable snow up there for the first time since October 26.  

That's one of the longest "winters" Mount Mansfield has had. But is the snow really done for the season up there on Vermont's highest peak? Read on to find out. 

The clouds were frustratingly slow to move out yesterday afternoon, especially in  northern Vermont. But they finally did toward evening, giving us a short shot at summer for the next couple of days before annoyingly chilly weather returns. Things could get pretty interesting by this weekend. 

Here's how this will play out

TODAY

A squirt of very warm air has moved in from the west. Forecasters have bumped up expected temperatures today so it's going to actually feel kind of hot. Warmer valley floors should get into the mid-80s. Humidity levels should be reasonable, though, and there will be a nice southwest breeze.

WEDNESDAY

Yesterday, I told you about that Omega block setting up around the nation. This thing will make Vermont turn cool, and very cool by the weekend. Before we get there though, the first of a series of cold fronts will have come through by tomorrow, but it won't make too much of a difference. 

It should still get well into the 70s, with some low 80s in broader valleys, including the Champlain Valley. We'll call the skies partly sunny.

THURSDAY

Upper air weather forecast map for Friday night. Click on
image to make it bigger and easier to see. It shows an
upper level, cold low over us. Those blue lines indicate
that it could be cold enough to snow on mountain peaks.

Here's where we begin to feel the north winds. It'll still be sunny, but highs will only reach the 60s, with some low 70s south. That's actually a couple degrees cooler than average for this time of year. But still very nice. Then the fun begins.

FRIDAY

A pocket of very cold air, which looks like a bowling ball on weather maps, will race down from Hudson Bay and score a strike on us here in Vermont starting during the day Friday. It'll be overhead Friday evening into Saturday. 

Given that this is coming straight from dry northern Canada, you'd think there wouldn't be much weather coming out of this. But the dynamics in this "bowling ball" look like they'll be strong, so lots of showers will break out starting Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

This is really cold air aloft for this time of year. Early guesses are that the snow level Friday night and Saturday morning could fall to 4,000 feet. So,  yes, it would snow on Mount Mansfield if this forecast is correct.

Even if it does't snow, it will be very cold and wet and windy in the mountains, so you might want to postpone your weekend hiking plans. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday looks chilly and showery, too, but probably not as bad as Saturday. After that, a slow warming trend should take hold next week, but it will probably remain cooler than average for at least the first half of the week. 

Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

Climate Change, Iran War And El Nino Are Painful, But Might Drive Humanity To Renewable Energy

The Iran war is causing all kinds of economic headaches
worldwide. But in the long run, it could push

As if the world's weather wasn't screwed up enough by climate change, El Nino is about to make it all worse. And Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran might well team up with El Nino to really make things scary. 

First, El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, seems imminent. As we've already reported, is expected to be huge.  They're calling it a super El Nino, which will make any effects from the phenomenon writ large. 

Strong El Ninos can substantially heat up the world. Earth's temperature is already near record highs thanks to climate change. If El Nino and climate change team up the way forecaster think, weather and climate disruptions in the form of record storms, record heat, massive droughts and floods could really amplify many of the problems the Iran war is causing. 

According to Lawfare:

"A climate change-fueled El Nino will amplify the growing shocks of the Iran war, many of which will unfold over the coming year even in the unlikely case that risk of renewed conflict resolves soon."

The publication noted us the situation is reminding us "That Mother Nature gets a vote on our priorities, too, and that climate resilience is inseparable from global security goals."

Even if by some miracle the Iran war ends tomorrow, the problems and potential crises remain. 

Lawfare again: 

 "Even if the strait is durably opened, it will take time to clear backlogged ships, for insurers to feel confident that transit is safe, and for damaged or shuttered oil and gas facilities to resume production. Countries would normally be stocking up on natural gas over the spring and summer for winter heating needs, and El Nino could further intensity pressure with intensified heat, electricity demand for cooling, and energy grid strips this summer

Countries in Southeast Asia are already scaling back on air conditioning, concerns that dangerous summer temperatures could crash electric grids and kill citizens."

Here in the United States, A Brown University analysis released on May 18 shows Trump's Iran war has cost American consumers $41.9 billion more at the fuel pumps since late February.

OTHER ASPECTS

This isn't just about oil and gas.

A third of global maritime nitrogen fertilizer trade are blocked due to the closed Gulf of Hormuz. Also, says Lawfare, countries that depend on Middle Eastern gas to produce their own fertilizers have shut down production. 

Also, "farmers who are planting tomorrow's food now have been forced to delay planting, switch crops, or accept subpar yields. Food security can be disrupted further as fuel and logistics costs rise, agriculture land is repurposed for newly economical biofuels, and countries potentially react with protectionism and export restrictions that spike prices further."

In the long run, this mess might undermine Trump's goal of propping up the fossil fuel industry. Oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, the Gulf War of 1990-91 and the Ukraine war all prompted industry to emphasize fuel efficiency. Global per capital petroleum use declined after the 1970s oil shock and never recovered noted Juan Cole in Informed Consent. 

Cole argues that the Straight of Hormuz crisis shows signs of what he calls a "chronic ailment."  Iran will probably always be tempted to develop a nuclear arsenal. Israel and the United States will probably keep striking. "In short, Israel and the United States have destabilized the Persian Gulf and global oil and natural gas supplies for the foreseeable future."

In other words, the price at the pump is going to stay annoyingly high for a long time. And that's the least of our problems. 

In the United States, Trump is still squawking drill, baby drill.  The Trump administration ended tax breaks worth up to $7,500 last year. Despite that, car buyers in the U.S. will probably keep turning more and more to EVs if gas prices stay high. 

Nations around the world see the writing on the wall.  Cole, in Informed Consent, has many examples. 

In the United Kingdom, EV sales rose a record 24% over the same month a year earlier. It helped that the average cost of  EVs in the UK are now a little less expensive there than similar gasoline-powered cars.  Europe is seeing a big jump in demand for rooftop solar systems. 

China is going through a boom in EV production. In 2024 they produce more than 12 million electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. India is building an EV future, currently building out a network of charging stations.  Pakistan has reported a boom in electric vehicle sales since the Iran war started.

Asia is especially prone to disruptions in the Persian Gulf oil pipeline, so you can see why the 4.8 billion people there are embracing an electric vehicle future. 

"Those who've fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom," said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN's climate secretariat UNFCCC, as reported in Reuters. 

Trump's war in Iran is all bad news. For us and for Trump. With this war, Trump's goal of propping p the oil and gas industry forever might be slipping through his fingers.   

Roller Coaster: Rainy, Cold Vermont Day In Progress, More Rain Tomorrow Morning, Then Warm, Then Eventually Chilly.

A huge lilac tree in front my house brightens a gloomy
May Sunday in St Albans, Vermont. 

 I'm getting a very late start this Sunday morning, as I decided to really sleep in on a chilly, rainy morning. 

That state of affairs will continue the rest of the day, though it will be a light, occasional rain, and it should turn more showery later in the day. 

Earlier last week, I'd hoped high pressure to our northeast would steer the rain away from us. So much for that idea. But we could still use the rain, despite the drought being over for now. 

But a miserable day for late May is still in progress. Damp and chilly is the word. If you like gloomy late March weather, today is your lucky day. Temperatures in the 40s to around 50 will only go up a couple of degrees by this afternoon. The winds will turn fairly gusty in most areas, adding to the chill.

Most places should have gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, but spots along the western slopes of the Green Mountains could see it go up to 45 mph.  This would be the first good windy day since the trees leafed out. Leaves are heavy, at least when you're weighting the thousands of them on a single tree.

The new leaves combined with the wind and rain could knock over a few trees. I expect there might be some widely scattered power outages. Nothing widespread or wild, but don't be surprises if your lights flicker if you're on those western slopes. 

Despite the nearly day-long dreariness, we won't actually get much more rain today. Through 9 a.m. most of Vermont had received a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. We'll get another tenth to a quarter inch by the time it gets dark this evening. 

MEMORIAL DAY

Unfortunately, the day will get off to a rough start. The way it looks now, rain will restart before dawn and continue through most of the morning. The rain will be heavier than today's,  amounting to at least a quarter to half inch. Statewide, we now expect storm totals to be somewhere near three quarters of an inch, give or take. So a decent soaking. 

It still looks like the rain will shut off nicely tomorrow afternoon, with some sun breaking out by late in the day. High temperatures will be much better than today, probably reaching a seasonal 70 degrees or so.

THE WEEK AHEAD

After a summer-like Tuesday, in which we'll flirt with 80 degrees, we'll have a slow cooling trend through the week, as an unusual weather pattern sets up. By next weekend, it could well be quite chilly for the season once again. 

It's a little unclear how cool it will get, but I'll more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

After Our Vermont Morning Frosts, It's Back To Late Spring Warmth. Except A Nippy Sunday?

It's lilac season, as they blooms cascade over my deck
railing. Cool temperatures this Memorial Day weekend
will preserve the lilacs for awhile, but it won't exactly
feel like an introduction to summer. 

 The cold temperatures last night worked out about as forecast. We had widespread frost, with a large minority of places in northern Vermont going below freezing. 

Montpelier got down to 31 degrees and Morrisville was 29 degrees. St. Johnsbury was barely above freezing at 33 degrees. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley escape the frost for the most part, as temperatures there reached the upper 30s. Burlington had an overnight low of 38 degrees.

There was likely seen light frost across southern Vermont, too. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all reported morning low temperatures of 35 degrees 

We have nice day on the way, with highs popping back up well into the 60s.  Some high clouds should return this afternoon, but those won't entirely hide the sun. 

Then we get into a Memorial Day weekend that looks, not great in the weather department. But we still have some questions about how much rain we might get and when it might fall. We do know it will be dry much of the time, at least on Saturday and Monday. Let's take a shot at the forecast here: 

SATURDAY

Not too bad, actually, especially north. If the clouds stay thin enough north, the day might begin with patchy frost in the normally colder spots, but the vast majority of us will be fine. It'll be a cloudy day, with the thickest clouds south.

That'll affect temperatures. Highs under the thicker clouds south will probably hold temperatures down into the upper 50s. Where the clouds are thinner north, weak sun getting through will hopefully push temperatures up to near 70.

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, if current forecasts hold, Sunday's weather will be almost as bad as it can get for this time of year. Almost, because there will be no disasters, no snow, or anything like that. 

But it won't feel like the introduction to summer it's supposed to be, either. Light rain should move in later Saturday night and continue much of Sunday. Worse, this is a cold system, so the lack of sunshine and the rain could well hold high temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Some places, especially in wetter southern Vermont, could have a high temperature in the mid and upper 40s. You know, like late March,  not late April. 

The one ray of hope is there is some questions as to whether the high pressure system that gave us this morning's frost will at least partially block this system. If it does, there would be some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, especially north. But that looks sort of unlikely at this point. 

The rain should be quite light, ranging from a tenth of an inch north to up to a half inch far south. 

MONDAY

OK, this won't be perfect, but it will be better. Winds from the west will import somewhat warmer air into Vermont. We'll still have a risk of showers, but temperatures should pop back up to near 70, which isn't far from normal for this time of year. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Morning Vermont Rain Turns To Brief Hot Spell. Strong Storms Tomorrow?

National Weather Service weather radar this morning
was much busier than many forecasters expected.
The rain was quickly moving out and we'll have
 a sunny, summery afternoon. 

 I called it. 

Up until yesterdays afternoon, many forecasters were pretty unconcerned about any showers coming through Vermont this morning with a warm front. 

I was suspicious, and noted in previous posts that some of us would wake up to showers this morning. Turns out the rain is even more widespread that I originally thought. 

As of 8:30 a.m today, rain was falling across most of northern Vermont, and there were embedded patches of fairly heavy rain. There has even been a few rumbles of thunder in northern New York and north central Vermont. 

Oh well, we had a gorgeous weekend, with Burlington have its first 80 degree day of the season on Sunday. The weather is also still expected to vastly improve this afternoon. 

We're still looking at some summertime highs in the 80s, and there's a few more storm threats after this morning.  Here are the picky details:

TODAY

It was a rather stormy, rainy, sort of raw early morning today in northern Vermont. It was raining steadily outside my St. Albans, Vermont house and gusty winds were tossing the new lilac blooms around. 

I wish the rain hit southern Vermont instead, because it's more needed down there, but you take what you can get. 

Skies should rapidly clear late this morning  into a balmy, summery afternoon after this warm front races on northward into Quebec. 

Hard to believe when you start the day rainy and in the low 50s. But trust me, the warmth is on its way. The warm front had already passed through southern Vermont by 8 a.m. and temperatures down there at dawn had already risen into the 60s.

Most places should hit the low to mid 80s for highs this afternoon.  Tonight will be pretty warm, too, with lows in the 50s away from Lake Champlain and low 60s in the Champlain Valley

TUESDAY

We know it's going to be very warm and increasingly humid, but thunderstorms are kind of a crapshoot. 

There's a level two out of five risk of severe storms tomorrow
in the areas in yellow on this map. Notice a good chunk
of Vermont is in that risk area. 

Temperatures should get into the 80s statewide. A spot 90 degrees isn't out of the question if clouds and showers and storms hold off.  There's some conflicting information on whether we'll have some big time storms tomorrow, or whether any attempt at storms go pfft.   

A big severe weather and tornado outbreak got underway in the Plains and Midwest yesterday, and it is expected to worsen today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicates we in Vermont might get a taste of that. No, we're not going to endure tornadoes that wipe out whole communities or hail the size of canned hams, as David Letterman once forecasted for Indiana in his early days as a TV weatherman back in the day. 

Still, the SPC has a slight risk - alert level 2 for severe storms in the northwestern half of Vermont and a marginal risk, alert level 1, in southeastern Vermont. 

According to NOAA, some storms that develop in the hot, increasingly humid air over Vermont Tuesday afternoon could unleash strong, gusty winds in a few spots. Once again, the Storm Prediction Center says we also have a really, really low, but not zero chance of a spin up tornado, too. 

On the other hand, precipitation forecast call for hardly any rain tomorrow, which doesn't exactly scream severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we'll have plenty of atmospheric instability over Vermont tomorrow. Instability is what can fire thunderstorms, but you need a spark that would get them going. 

That spark tomorrow would be a weak disturbance in the atmosphere teaming up with air current rising near mountain slopes. Will that be enough to trigger severe storms? Stay tuned for updates tomorrow morning. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still working out the timing of a cold front due to come through. The consensus is it might come through midday, which could leave us with a wide range of high temperatures. Don't hold me to this, but we could have a situation in which highs are only in the upper 60s far northwest to upper 80s far southeast. 

Depending on the timing of the front, we could have more strong thunderstorms. If it waits until the mid afternoon to evening to come through, maybe we'll see a few more strong storms. 

THURSDAY

We're back to cool weather, temporarily. The sun should come back out. But some places north might not even get out of the 50s for highs. Areas away from the Champlain Valley could see a few areas of frost. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

I might as well say it: I have no idea. The weather looks like it might turn unsettled. The computer models disagree on when some rain might return.  Friday looks safe at this point. Some of the models postpone rain until Sunday. We'll figure this out eventually. 

It'll stay relatively cool into the weekend, with highs in the 60s. This is temporary. The overall weather pattern favors warm weather, so I suspect a nice return to almost balmy weather to conclude the month. 

The Good Old Summertime Visits Vermont For A Few Days

An otherworldly view of Lake Champlain near 
Colchester Point, Vermont during sunset 
Saturday evening. 

Saturday was a winner, wasn't it? For a good part of the day we had bright sun, warm breezes, and the leaves on the trees were that perfect peak of new spring foliage in a million different, gleaming shades of green. 

Even when it clouded it up late in the day, it was still spectacular, at least where I was near Lake Champlain. 

The setting sun bouncing off clouds and scattered showers created weird but beautiful hues of deep, otherworldly blue, bright orange and a multitude of other bright and dark shades. 

TODAY

Now it's Sunday morning, and we're starting Part 2 of a beautiful weekend. A bit of haze early this morning gave the sky a baby blue hue, matching nicely with the fresh green of spring. 

We might have a few clouds here and there today but it's going to be gorgeous!

High temperatures will have quite a range across Vermont. Up in the Northeast Kingdom it'll probably hold in the 60s.  A few low 80s might well pop up in the warmer valleys south. 

Most of the rest of  Vermont should hold in the low to mid 70s, but cooler right near Lake Champlain. because of the chilly lake water. Which is where we get into the caution part of the forecast for the next few days. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement warning of the dangers of cold water. A lot of you will be tempted to jump into the water, kayak, paddle board, or get the sailboats out. 

But if you fall into the water, you're screwed. Lakes and rivers and ponds are still mighty cold. If you fall in, hypothermia sets in damn quickly.  As you quickly get cold, your arms and legs stop working right and you might not be able to swim your way out of trouble. 

Out on the broad areas of Lake Champlain, there should be some gusty northwest winds. Stronger south winds are due tomorrow and Tuesday.  The winds and waves could be enough to tip over kayaks and cause real trouble with other small boats. So you might want to hold off on those lake adventures for awhile. 

MONDAY

Another view of the sunset over Lake Champlain 
Saturday evening in the midst of a beautiful weekend. 

A warm front should blow through in the morning with clouds. There might even be a spot shower here and there, but it won't amount to much. 

The warm front will be up in Canada by afternoon, so we should clear up and turn warm.  Valleys across most of the state will reach the low 80s.  Many of those places, including in the Burlington area, will have their first 80 degree temperatures of the season. 

While all this niceness is going on in New England, the Plains and Midwest will endure a big outbreak of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, gorilla hail, along with dust and wildfires in some areas. We often complain, with justification, of annoying weather here in Vermont, but at least it's not scary. So count your lucky stars. 

TUESDAY

This will easily be the warmest day of the week. We'll get off to a warm start, as temperatures at the break of dawn will be in the 50s in much of Vermont, and the low 60s in the Champlain Valley. That's a pretty typical start to the day in July. 

The July theme will keep going as highs for most of us should reach the 80s. Also just like July, there's a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Forecasters are still struggling with how many clouds those storms will bring, how early in the afternoon the showers and storms will start, and how widespread they'll become. 

Those factors will determine how warm it gets. If there's lots of clouds and rain and showers, temperatures will hold near 80. If the sun lasts most of the day, some spots could flirt with 90.  Cloud and showers appear less likely in the southeast than in the northwest. 

With that in mind, for now at least,  the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a highs of 81 degrees in St. Albans, 85 in Burlington, 86 in Montpelier, 87 in Rutland and 90 in Springfield. 

Those wouldn't be record highs, as all time highs for Tuesday's date around Vermont are in the 90 to 92 degree range. 

But Tuesday will be hotter than we're accustomed to, and it will be turning more humid. You'll want to take it easy with the outdoor work and/or recreation. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still waiting on clarity as to when during Wednesday a cold front comes through. If it blows through in the morning, we just get a few showers followed by drier and eventually cooler air. If it's late in the day, we could see a couple strong thunderstorms in a few places. Stay tuned on that one. 

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Long range forecasts get dicey and are prone to change. But Thursday and Friday look relatively cool, but not weird or annoying for this time of year. Early guesses call for highs in the 60s.  Signs point toward maybe some rain later Friday or Saturday, but that's not a promise. The forecast will probably change quite a bit between now and then.