Vermont Drought/Dryness Lingers As Rain/Snow Continues. A Thursday Evening Update

Some snow could be seen accumulating along Route 4
in Mendon, Vermont late this afternoon. This is from
a Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam.

Vermont's first experience of the season with winter-ish is going pretty closely to plan. 

Rain came as far north as central Vermont. during the day. 

I didn't mention this during the morning report, but a lot of models had the precipitation sinking south again later this afternoon, so most of the rain and mountain snow was confined to the southern third of Vermont. 

The rain and snow will probably move north again tonight and early tomorrow morning, but once again only make it to central Vermont. Any precipitation should stay south of Route 2 overnight. We're still expecting snow to get close to valley floors overnight, but accumulation down there will be nothing. Or next to nothing. 

The southern Green Mountains could still get two to four inches. It was already snowing at elevations of above 1.500 feet late this afternoon. 

Northern Vermont might have escaped winter weather today, but things in the north might be starting to look a little more interesting over the next couple of days than first thought. 

Snow showers will develop over the northern and central Green Mountains tomorrow. There could be sprinkles or flurries in the valleys beneath chilly northwest winds. 

However, the National Weather Service says Lake Champlain is so warm compared to the air that a lake effect snow band might develop south of Burlington Friday night and Saturday. Also a disturbance in the cold, northwest flow might be enough to create some light accumulating snow in northern Vermont valleys Friday night and Saturday morning.

I'll have more on this in tomorrow morning's post. 

DROUGHT UPDATE

Today's U.S. Drought Monitor is unchanged from last
week, with drought in the Northeast Kingdom 
(orange shading) and abnormally dry in virtually
the rest of Vermont. Today's storm likely won't
be enough to improve things much. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released this morning, shows no change in the drought and dry conditions in Vermont compared to last week. 

Much of the Northeast Kingdom, representing nearly a third of the state, remains in moderate drought. Almost the entire rest of the state is abnormally dry. Only a tiny, itty, bitsy corner of far northwest Vermont is in the clear. 

Precipitation from today's storm won't be enough to change the picture.  Perhaps the ground will get a little less dry in southern Vermont from today's persistent rain and wet snow.

Another long period of mostly dry weather is in the forecast. Less than a quarter inch of rain is expected in Vermont over the next seven days, except perhaps a wee bit more than that in far southern Vermont and the highest elevations of the northern Green Mountains.  

The drought is worse to our north and east. Almost all of Maine is in drought, with some areas in severe or even extreme drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Storm's Southward Trend Continues: Northern Vermont To Get Almost Nothing, Snow Still Likely South

The latest snow forecast, issued this morning Pretty
much nothing north, with two to five inches 
still possible in the central and southern 
Green Mountains. 

 We started today with wildly different kinds of weather across Vermont.  

In far northern Vermont, the sun was out, with only high, thin clouds covering the sky. 

Not all that far south, toward Middlebury, you ran into light rain. The southern half of Vermont was all rainy, except in the mountains, where it was snowing. 

It's now looking like this set up will continue through today and tonight. 

TODAY

The precipitation will continue to try and work slowly northward, though I question whether any of it will reach the Canadian border. 

If it does, it will only be sprinkles, and maybe some flurries tonight. Clouds will probably thicken up there, and the early morning sun will fade, but if anything falls, it will be super light. 

In central and southern Vermont, it still looks like two to five inches of snow will accumulate by morning ar elevations of above 2,000 feet. Rainfall and snowfall in central Vermont will be light all day into this evening, so it won't be a wild weather day. Just typical November gloom and dampness.  

In central land southern Vermont, rain should change to snow even in most valleys overnight. But below 1,000 feet in elevation,  the most you will see is a slushy coating on the grass. One wild card is far southern Vermont. The National Weather Service says a band of heavier precipitation might briefly rotate for a time into that region.

If that happens this evening, low places like Brattleboro or Bennington could see a surprise couple inches of snow. That's uncertain, but just something to watch. 

There's still wiggle room with this system, so it's still possible the rain and snow could go a little further north than expected, or stay a little further south than expected. 

Overall, this is turning out to be no blockbuster for Vermont. Still, you'll want to be careful on the roads, especially if you're heading to the high elevations. We should see some slick roads in spots up there. 

I'm bummed that this storm isn't producing the precipitation we'd hoped we see. Especially north. It's still quite dry across Vermont, and we need some late season soakings. 

Rain and melted snow will probably only amount to a trace to a tenth of an inch north of Route 2.  Central Vermont might see a quarter inch. Only areas south of Route 4 will get a decent wetting, with a half inch or a little more of rain and melted snow down there. 

This lack of rain and snow is especially bad since we have another long period of unusually nice November weather coming up. Eventually. 

Before we get to that, we have the next two or three days to discuss. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Our storm will be spinning off around the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend, which means clouds, nippy north winds and chilly temperatures. We'll also see snow showers, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains. 

Those areas will see some light accumulation out of that. Valleys will pretty much see just light snow showers, mixing with rain during the day. No biggy, 

Highs during this period will be within a few degrees either side of 40, with sub-freezing nights. All this is a little chilly for mid-November but not really that out of the ordinary. 

NEXT WEEK

Big, fat high pressure looks like it will stall over the eastern United States for much of next week. One computer model I saw has the center of the high pressure centered over or near West Virginia from later Monday until early Friday. 

That's an extraordinarily long time for any weather system to be in one place. Especially this time of year, when weather systems tend to move right along. 

For us in Vermont, this means a warming trend with partly sunny skies. We'll be near the northern edge of this high pressure, leaving us prone to some periods of clouds from time to time as disturbances passing by to the north. 

But still, several days in a row with some sunshine in mid-November is quite a gift. 

Monday will still be chilly as we'll still feel the last effects of that old storm far to our northeast. Then it will turn milder. . We won't have record warmth like we did at the beginning of the month. But daily high in the low to mid 50s sounds like a nice treat for this time of year. 

Like I noted, though, it will be a long dry peered. 

I'll have  post probably later today with this week's update from the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

  

Wednesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Still Mostly Mountains And South

National Weather Service snow forecast, updated late
this afternoon. Most of us will receive little snow,
but more is expected in the central and 
southern Green Mountains. 

 Our first snowy storm of the season starts tomorrow and as of Wednesday evening, we still have sone questions about how the storm will play out tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their forecast discussion this afternoon:

"Where the models continue to struggle are placement of the surface circulation, extent of northward moisture transport QPF (precipitation) amounts and the amount of cold air in place across the region."

In other words, the the models are struggling with everything, 

The latest models have cut back on the amount of precipitation, especially north. Though it's still not too late for things to flip flop back northward. 

For moar of us, it'll be a cold rainy day. A few places might see some wet snow flakes in the morning, then the rain. After that, snow level will gradually fall until it's at least down to 1,000 feet by evening.

Far northern Vermont might see only sprinkles and flurries, depending on how far north the main precipitation reaches, 

Since precipitation will be heavier south, a winter weather advisory is up for the central and southern Green Mountains. Those areas should receive two to five inches of snow, mostly snow 1,200 feet in elevation 

The storm will be starting to head off to the northeast in the evening. Northwest winds will change rain to snow even in the valleys. But not much snow will accumulate. Still, even if there's a dusting of snow, we might wake up Friday morning with some slick spots in the valleys 

Overall, if current forecasts are accurate. This will be the typical rain/snow November slop we see most years. Enough to screw things up in some areas, especially since we're not used to driving in winter weather quire yet. 

With all this in mind, though, see above.We have plenty of opportunity for surprises with the system.  

Vermont's First Winter Forecast Of The Season; But Huge Questions On How Much

Time for the snowfall forecast maps again! This is the
National Weather Service's initial forecast for snow
accumulations in Vermont through early Friday
afternoon. Definitely expect adjustments, up or 
down, in this forecast as the storm unfolds. 

 It's going to snow in Vermont tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

How much snow depends on elevation and the track of the storm, as always. And, as is usual with Vermont winter weather, expect surprises. 

This certainly won't be the biggest snowstorm ever. But some areas of Vermont could easily see a few to several inches of snow out of this. 

The fact that it's the first one of the season, and people aren't used to it,  could spell trouble for people on the roads. There's even a risk of scattered power outages.

So let's get into it.

TODAY

The proverbial calm before the storm. We actually hd some sunshine in parts of Vermont this morning. It'll tend to get cloudier as we go through the day. It'll also be cooler than recent days, with highs in the 40s. Light north breezes will make it feel even a little cooler. 

THURSDAY

This is where things obviously start to get interesting. The situation could easily change, but here''s how the National Weather Service currently thinks this all will unfold: 

At the moment, the storm is expected to move from Ohio or West Virginia very early tomorrow morning to southern New England late Thursday night. 

That's normally a perfect path for a snowfall in Vermont. But unlike many situations, there's not much cold air lurking to our north. Which means it looks like Thursday bring  a cold, rainy day to the valleys and snow in the mountains. 

At night, the snow level should get  to -  or at least close to  - valley floors.  

By Friday morning, accumulations will be all over the place. Southern and central Vermont mountains could pick up as much as six inches. Mid-elevations maybe two to four inches. Valleys might have just a slushy dusting to two inches of accumulation 

Precipitation looks like it will be heavier in southern and central Vermont. Northern Vermont is expected to have lighter precipitation, so perhaps not much accumulation. 

Wildcards

The heavier precipitation might go further north than expected, or perhaps not as far north as forecast. Heavier precipitation cools the atmosphere. So when temperatures are marginal, ,rain could change to snow when the precipitation comes down harder. 

That could increase snow accumulation if the atmosphere holds more moisture than expected. 

The other wildcard is temperatures Thursday night. If it's a degree or so cooler than forecast, then valleys receive more snow. A degree or two warmer, it'll be mostly rain. 

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions across Vermont during this. Some places will just have wet roads. Other roads will become slippery and snow-covered pretty fast. Wet snow is more slippery than fluffy snow under tires, which  means driving could be especially tricky. 

That heavy, wet snow could snap some trees and power lines. 

As I mentioned above. Expect surprises. Snowfall could be heavier or lighter than forecast. 

One piece of good news is expected rain and melted snow are forecast to amount to a half inch to an inch in southern and central Vermont. We need the moisture so this is good. 

North of Route 2, there's a lot of questions about how much precipitation they'll get. Early guesses are a quarter inch. But remember the wildcard - it could be much less or much more. 

As of this morning, there were no winter weather advisories in Vermont. But I'm sure that will be updated later today. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Our storm will be headed slowly through the southeastern Canada, probably near Nova Scotia Saturday and south of Newfoundland by early Sunday. .

That sets up a wet, cold northerly flow of air. So, it'll be snow showers at night, changing to a cold rain showers in the valleys, more snow showers in the mountains. Valleys will have little or no snow additional snow accumulation. The northern Green Mountains could pick up a few more inches of snow. 

Most ski resorts open around Thanksgiving. Killington usually opens early, but it's not open yet. This weather might get the season started. 

NEXT WEEK:

Remember those big fat high pressure systems we kept seeing in October? With all those sunny days?

We might get a break from the November gloom as another big, fat high pressure system next week. This could mean that winter isn't actually starting with tomorrow's snowstorm. With luck, we'll have a spell of partly sunny, mild weather during the middle of next week. 

It'll be a temporary reprieve, winter is inevitable. We're just getting our first taste of it tomorrow and Friday. 

UN: The United States Is To Blame For Lagging Climate Change Fight.

 The world is going to warm up a little more due to climate change than scientists thought last year. 

And it's the fault of the United States, according to the United Nations.  

As the Associated Press reports:

"If all the countries do what they promise to reduce heat-trapping emissions, Earth will most likely still warm another 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current temperatures, accord (the) update to climate calculations by the United Nations Environmental Program.

 That's about two-tenths pop a degree Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) more than last year's projections by the same science team.

'This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions,' the report said."

Additionally, the United States increased carbon emissions last year.  That's different from all the other top 20 major economies reduced their carbon pollution or at least slowed the growth in how much carbon dioxide billowed into the air, as the Associated Press reported. 

"In terms of magnitude, the increase in the United States of America (133 megatons of CO2 equivalent) far exceeded that of all other countries and was driven by increased electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation, the report said. 

New calculations say that if countries do everything they promise in fighting climate change, the world will be 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than pre-industrial times, the AP reported.

 

Vermont November Gloom Continues; Late Week Storm Could Whiten Mostly High Elevations

A dull photo taken this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
representing the dull November in the states.

 All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray, as that famous Mamas and Papas song tells us. They might have well be singing about Vermont while they were California Dreaming. 

It's always cloudy this time of year, and November has really be showing its true colors, I mean color, the pat couple of grey, overcast days. This state of affairs should more or less continue this week, as it almost always does in November. 

There might be a few sunny breaks to tease us, especially in southeastern Vermont, so you have that to look forward to. 

We still have that late week storm we're watching and the computer models are still arguing about it.  The forecast is messy, and the resulting weather will probably be kind of messy as well. Let's get into it. 

TODAY

Another in a series of weather disturbances is approaching us from the northwest. It'll hit northern Vermont this afternoon and evening while pretty much ignoring the southern end of the state.

This is a no big deal weather system.  Showers will develop this afternoon. Some might even be briefly heavy-ish.  There could even be a couple spots with graupel mixed in. If you remember, graupel is that sleety, snowy pellets, kind of resembling pieces of styrofoam packing peanuts. 

Up north, rainfall amounts will be light again. Most places will get a tenth of an inch of rain or less. 

Southern Vermont, especially the Connecticut River Valley, could see some sun today. 

Today it will be sort of mild for November. Highs should reach 50 north to mid-50s south. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll be between weather systems. So, we'll endure typical November weather. Cloudy, breezy, chilly. Highs should stay in the 40s.

THURSDAY

Here's where things start to get interesting. 

We know a deep dip in the jet stream will form over the eastern United States, which means storminess.  How it develops is still in question, but it's beginning to look messy, with lots of moving parts. 

What follows is the first guess of what will happen. Expect changes in this forecast, as the the atmosphere will get complicated, with prediction models still struggling with the whole thing. 

It seems like moisture from the initial piece of storminess will come in Thursday. Early guesses are light rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains. Not super heavy, but maybe pretty steady.

 One question, as pointed out by WPTZ meteorologists, is that rain could change to snow even in the Champlain Valley Thursday evening. We're not sure yet. It's something to keep an eye on. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us, the American  computer model wants to linger the storminess over or near New England Friday and Saturday. What that means for us is unclear. 

More unsettled weather, for sure. But how much rain? How much snow? If it snows, where? Just the mountains? Or the valleys, too? We'll have to sort this out over the next couple of days. 

November Gloom Has Descended On Vermont; Not Going Away Soon

Forecasters are watching a potential storm late in
the week. This map is one scenario for Thursday
morning showing a storm developing south of us.
At this point, anything could happen. It could stay
to our south, not develop much, or give us
our first bout of wintry weather of the season. 

Sorry, getting a late start today, but let's get into  it. 

Those gorgeous, sunny days that began November are long gone. It's been back to reality since Saturday and it's not going away anytime soon. 

November is the cloudiest month of the year, though December is about tied. So we have a lot of overcast skies to look forward to.

Meanwhile, there's still a TON of questions regarding the potential storm toward Friday. Some models have a total whiff for us, others give us a fair amount of snow and/or rain or something in between. More on that in a bit. 

After the Saturday rain failed to materialize, the next in a series of rapid-fire disturbances gave us a little rain last night. Burlington got a quarter inch. Most other areas got much  less, unfortunately. 

So, here's the forecast 

TODAY

Scattered showers will linger today under cloudy skies. Typical November. The National Weather Service says a few heavier showers might have some graupel, which is sort of sleety, half frozen snowy-ish pellets. 

Highs should be near normal -within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

The next in that spray of disturbances coming from the northwest will give us another gloomy day. Northern areas could receive another tenth to as much as a quarter inch of rain. Central and southern Vermont will only see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So, nothing substantial. But it's still too dry out there, so we'll take everything we can get

Highs should be in the 40s to around 50. Again, very typical for November.

As temperatures cool, a little snow should fall in the high elevations, but it shouldn't amount to much. 

WEDNESDAY

This will be the "nicest" day of the week. There will be no rain or snow to speak of, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. I suppose there could be some quick breaks of sun in the broader valleys, but it will be far from a blue sky day. 

Highs should again be in the 40s, to maybe 50 in the warmest valleys.  A north breeze will make it feel nippier. 

THURSDAY

It could be the calm before the storm. Or just a calm day before no storm We don't know yet. But in any event, we also don't expect any rain or snow. Highs again should be in the 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY

Here's the day where pretty much anything could happen. We just don't have enough information to tell. The forecasts will become better within a few days once we have better upper air sampling. 

Some models don't really get the storm's act together, and suppress the storm to its south.  So we just get another cloudy November day.

Other models get the storm's act together and flings it up the coast, spreading potentially heavy, wet snow our way, maybe mixed with a little rain. 

Or, we could just get the outer fringes of this thing, and we just get some snow or rain showers. Stay tuned on this one. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Oddly, the forecast for next weekend is a little easier than Friday's forecast. Whatever that storm does, it should be north and east of us by then. It will send cold north wind our way. That means more cloudy skies, chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers, and highs just in the 37 to 47 degree range. 

King Tides, Big Storms, Giant Floods: El Nino Is Already Taking A Huge Toll, And It Will Get Worse

Flooding in McCaysville, Georgia last week. A string of 
flood disaster over the past month from California to 
Florida is just the beginning of what is shaping up to
be a horrifically destructive Super El Nino winter. 

 The southwest and southeastern parts of the nation are cleaning up from flood disasters in the past couple of weeks caused by nation's first major encounters with the ongoing super El Nino. 

Coastal areas, especially in California, are cleaning up after record sea levels flooded hundreds if not thousands of homes and businesses.  The same problem hit parts of Florida. 

Then, storms caused intense, destructive, sometimes record flooding in both the southwestern U.S. and in Florida. Then later in northern Georgia and southeast Pennsylvania. 

The extreme weather had tapered off by Tuesday, but these are likely the opening salvos in a very rough weather winter. 

 KING TIDES 

King Tides hit yearly, when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual. That makes the pull of the tides stronger and higher. Climate change has raised sea levels, making flooding from King Tides a problem that now hits a few times of year. 

In California, the King Tides hit atop a Kelvin Wave. .   

A Kelvin Wave, which elevates sea levels, is underway along the California coast, The wave elevates sea levels by six to 12 inches. The King Tide, combined with the Kelvin Wave, caused record flooding.  

Around Loa Angeles and San Diego, tides reached eight feet, shattering records and sending water through neighborhoods and major thoroughfares, like the Pacific Coast Highway. This was the worst of many high tide events around Loa Angeles this year. The city has had 12 coastal flood days in 2026. That has already outpaced any year out of the past 50. And there's two months to go this year. 

This time around, record flooding hit California coastal communities, damaging at least hundreds of homes and businesses. In one spot, the high tide covered the Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach. ,. Video showed makeshift sea walls made of sand bags and plastic, while water entered numerous SoCal homes. 

 Further north, San Francisco endured its highest tide ever seen during the month of October.  A kayaker was spotted along a flooded section of the normally traffic-jammed 101 freeway. 

In Florida, the problem wasn't a Kelvin Wave, but an easterly wind flow that piled water along the coastline just as the King Tides hit. 

Virginia Key, which ia a barrier island near Miami, saw its highest King Tide and the third-highest water level since records started 30 years ago. 

Video showed water flooding streets and lapping against homes and businesses in cities like Daytona Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The video showed cars driving through the salt water flooding. 

Which is bad. Because TVs, golf cars and scooters are especially susceptible to salt water flooding.  Lithium ion batteries exposed to salt water can start fires days or even weeks after being exposed to salt water. 

After last week's flooding King Tides, the moon phases are changing, reducing the destructive King Tides for now.  King Tides hit when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual, causing tides to rise to higher levels. 

But as destructive as the coastal flooding was last week, it might only be a foretaste of what's to come. More King Tides are coming, and those might well be accompanied by big storms, which would greatly exacerbate the damage. 

Some of the storms have already hit in the past week or so, carrying intense, record flooding. 

Flash floods extended across most of Arizona, from Flagstaff in the north to Tucson in the south. 

Flagstaff had 3.37 inches of rain on Sunday, the third wettest day on record for the city. Flagstaff has already had its wettest meteorological autumn and there's still three weeks to go. (Meteological autumn runs from September 1 and November 30. Since September 1, Flagstaff has had 13.15 of rain since September 1. 

A a result, water coursed through streets and homes. Unfortunately, the flooding killed two people in the city. 

Elsewhere, on the weekend of October 23, the resort town of Pagosa Springs, Colorado, was inundated and badly damaged by downpours and intense flooding. The San Juan River crested at 15.02, nearly three feet higher than a damaging flood in August. 

But that was only the beginning. The even more ferocious storm this past weekend, pushed the San Juan river to a crest of 16.81 feet, making it the second highest flood crest there, just short of a 1911 flood. 

Luckily, the crest fell short of an expected 22 feet. But between October's flood and this one, the destruction was still extreme. At least one house was seen falling into the river and floating downstream before disintegrating against a bridge. 

People were reported stranded in Durango and other towns.  People were evacuated from several counties in southwest Colorado as creeks and rivers burst their banks. 

Durango is a big tourist town, with plenty of condos and hotels. At one lodging, the Junction Hotel and Hostel, water filled the parking lot and first floor rooms.

FLORIDA

 Next up was southeast and parts of eastern Florida, especially around Brevard County

Two people have been reported dead because of the flooding. 

The flooding was widespread and exceptionally damaging, especially since it hit such a heavily populated area. AccuWeather estimates damage at between $3 billion and $5 billion. 

On Tuesday, in a single day, Melbourne received 11.51 inches of rain. On November 2-3, Palm Bay had 14.19 inches of rain.  2 

Storm totals included a whopping total of 28.93 inches in Malabar and 28.13 oil he's in Palm Bay. The flooding was so bad that there had to be Election Day polling changes in severe Florida counties. 

The terrain is pretty flat, so the water wasn't able to drain well. So it lingered in some neighborhoods for days. 

Most schools in Brevard County were closed for at least three days. Some schools opened on the first day of the downpours, and buses had to somehow return students home later in the day on flooded streets. One viral video showed a student being let off into thigh-deep flood waters in Port St. Lucie. 

In an interview, the teen caught in the flooding said he was frightened by the experience, and his father said the school system should have planned out things better. El Nino is creating new challenges everywhere. 

 TENN/GA FLOODING

Some of the floods we've been seeing have been unexpected. Early Thursday, six to 11 inches of rain fell near the Tennessee and Georgia border. The rain pushed the Ocoee River to a record 18.05 feet. The previous record crest was 17.8 feet in 1990, and the river is around 2.5 feet on a normal day. 

The flooding nearly completely trashed the adjacent small cities of McCaysville, Georgia and Copperhill, Tennessee. Some people were rescued from roofs. A 90 year old woman stood on the kitchen table in her flooded home for gawd knows how long until she was rescued. 

So far,  one person has been killed in this flooding. 

Like so many of these storms lately, this flood was considered a one in one thousand year event. Also like other storms, the area punished by this flood was slammed by an inundation almost as bad just three months ago.

That will make recover that much harder because nobody has money left from the last disaster. 

The storm that hit Georgia and Tennessee ended up going up the East Coast, causing additional flooding Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The New England flooding wasn't nearly as bad as that in Georgia, but streets in Falmouth and nearby communities were under more than a foot of water

MUCH MORE TO COME

El Nino continues to strengthen. The northern hemisphere storms are taking on their winter characteristics, and will continue to become more powerful, as they do in the winter. 

The winter storms will get supercharged by El Nino, so it's clearly going to be a rough weather winter.

King Tides will return later this month and in December. If they're accompanied by one or more of those gigantic Pacific storms that often hit during those months, the destruction might be far beyond what we saw in October.

El Nino years often feature flooding rain storms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. Some of the those powerful storms take a turn northward, up the Eastern Seaboard, causing high winds and heavy rain or snow.

It's impossible to predict when such storms will blow through and exactly how they'll behave. 

Just expect a long winter. 

 

Vermont Rainfall Was Mostly A Bust, Typical November Week Coming, Weekend Storm?

A little snow is visible on the trees through the dense
fog atop Mount Mansfield this morning. Overall,
precipitation was less than forecast overnight. 
The week will bring frequent chances of light
rain or snow showers, but nothing big until
at least Friday. 

 The long period of dark, grey, overcast in Vermont that started early yesterday and lasted through this morning didn't help us at all. 

We expected more than a quarter inch of rain, but we were cheated, especially in central and northern Vermont. Rain passed to our south, west and east. Some very light rain and drizzle was going on as dawn broke, but that won't last long. 

Many places just had a trace of rain, or a few hundredths of an inch. 

High elevations had a little snow overnight, but it didn't amount to much. A web cam from atop Mount Mansfield, for instance, showed a little new snow. It's unclear yet whether this was an inch or snow or not. 

If not, the record for the first inch of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield could be tied tomorrow or broken on Tuesday. 

It's too bad we didn't get the forecast rain. . We needed it. During the week, we will have frequent chances of rain and snow, but it won't amount to much. But there is a chance of a larger storm toward next weekend, which might, or might not spread a more substantial rain or snow our way. Yes, it's possible we'll see our first measurable valley snow of the season, but there's some big ifs attached to it.

It might or might not happen, but get your snow tires on anyway, just in case. 

Let's get into the updated forecast for the week:  

TODAY

The light rain, drizzle and fog this morning should thin out. We might even see some sun this afternoon, especially in western Vermont. 

Especially in the Champlain Valley, it looks like it could turn mostly sunny for a short while this afternoon before more clouds come in this evening. Just know that there is some ifs ands or buts with this forecast. Sometimes, low level moisture has a hard time getting scoured out of valleys this time of year. There's a chance that the sunshine forecast will be another bust. 

But for now the National Weather Service is being optimistic, so we'll hope they're right and things brighten up for a little while. 

Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees, which is about normal for this time of year. North winds should taper off a little and become westerly this afternoon. 

MONDAY

Starting Monday, we're in a fast northwest flow for the week. That means we'll be sprayed with rapid fire, weak disturbances racing in from the northwest. 

The first one comes through late tonight and tomorrow morning. We'll have some light showers in the morning, but we'll only have a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Or even nothing in southeastern Vermont. 

Unlike today, it'll stay cloudy. Highs once again should come close to 50 degrees.

TUESDAY

More than 48 hours out, it's hard to judge the timing of all this disturbance, so we have to go broad brush. No saying what time of day it will rain or snow. Just know it will be typically chilly for November. And we won't see a lot of sun.

On Tuesday, early guesses are some light showers would be most likely in the afternoon and evening. It will probably be cold enough for a little snow way up in the mountains. Again that's pretty normal for November. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As the northwest flow continues, it will get colder. It'll stay partly to mostly cloudy with that ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. The National Weather Service is going for highs generally in the 40s those days. Cool, but not out of the ordinary for November. 

At this time last year, most of northern Vermont had several inches of snow on the ground and daytime highs were only in the 30s. 

FRIDAY/NEXT WEEKEND

A lot of the models are still  hinting at a pretty strong storm or nor'easter toward Friday or the weekend. There's still lots of disagreement on how strong the storm will be, its path, and even whether it will fully develop. That means we have no idea yet what that means for Vermont. 

This morning's models were a little more bullish on fairly heavy precipitation for us. It's unclear it that means, rain, snow or both. Plus, forecasts this far out tend to flip flop dramatically. A very wet or very snowy scenario in the models today could change to a dry forecast when the another run of computer models come out. 

For now, as mentioned above, now is a great time to get your snow tires on, even if the weekend storm for Vermont turns into just another partly sunny day.  

The snow will hit eventually. 

Back To Reality. Vermont To Turn Colder, Wetter, And Eventually Maybe Snowier.

Fog and a gray atmosphere this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. The warm, sunny weather we enjoyed for the 
last few days is over, in favor of typical cloudy,
rainy, cold November weather. 

Friday was another gorgeous day in Vermont the last we will see for a long time. Depending on your definition of gorgeous, of course. 

Some people love the gloomy, gray, wet and cold days of November. If you're in that camp, there's great news. 

Typical November weather is moving in. Starting today. 

Otherwise, I guess we can bask in the memory of yesterday. It was particularly sunny and warm in western Vermont. Some clouds were overhead in southeast Vermont, but it was still a pretty nice day down there. 

Highs were in the 60s statewide. You can't beat that. At least this time of year. 

We're on the cusp of an El Nino winter now. And this is an extreme El Nino, so there's always a chance things could get wildly interesting at times in the coming months. 

My experience with past big El Nino winters  in Vermont is that they feature bouts of very warm, often record-breaking warmth, and/or nasty or even destructive storms. In between, you get long periods of pretty average weather. 

El Nino springs are often even more volatile, but we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

We just had our first spell of record breaking warmth. Now, it's going back to normal, but we could get a decent-sized storm in a week or so. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

We're starting off mild again, as temperatures were in the 40s at dawn. It was overcast and foggy, too, and it's not going to clear up, not at all. As of 8:30 this morning there was very little rain in Vermont. Yet.

Highs should only make it to the 50s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year. 

However, that upper level low spinning in New York State. During the day, you'll see increasing rain moving in traveling east to west across Vermont. 

Forecasters have upped the amount of rain northern Vermont will receive, and keeping it about the same as early predictions south. That means pretty much all of us will receive a quarter to a half inch of rain this afternoon and tonight. 

I'm still a little skeptical about the north. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us north of Route 2 receive a little less than a quarter inch. 

SUNDAY

Early in the morning, before dawn, the very highest elevations will have switched to snow.  It doesn't look like there will be much accumulation. We might just see a new record set in Vermont. 

The latest in the season that the summit of Mount Mansfield had the first inch of snow on the ground was November 9, 1985. If there's less than an inch of snow at the summit tomorrow morning,  we have a good shot at seeing that record broken. 

Any rain will tend to taper off in the morning. It'll stay cloudy and cool, though some areas, especially in western Vermont could see some sunshine late in the afternoon, not long before sunset. 

Highs should get to near 50 or so, which is close to average for this time of year. 

MONDAY

The week will feature some rapid fire quick hits of light rain and snow in a fast northwest flow.  Little disturbances will zing through northern New England quickly, each with a package of light precipitation. 

The first one comes through Monday, with a little light rain. No biggie.   Most of the light rain should come through in the morning and early afternoon, but we can't rule out sprinkles extending through all day. Monday will be seasonably cool with a high near 50 degrees.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

More weak, rapid-fire disturbances will zip through, typical of November. That means mostly cloudy skies, and nearly and ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. Highs should be in the 40s to near 50. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

We're starting to see signs that a major storm could hit New England. It's really, really uncertain at this point. So there's no reason to panic. The storm could go harmlessly out to sea. It could go inland. It could go right along the coast. It's possible the storm might not form at all. 

There's some social media hype that we'd get a major snowstorm here in Vermont. But that's hype. I suppose it's possible we could get snow out of this, but it's way, way, WAY to soon to think about that. 

So, don't worry about it for now. Listen to forecasts later in the week, and we'll have much better handle on it then. 

A Summery November Thursday In Vermont. Now The Cool Down Starts. Rain, Too. And Did Someone Say Snow?

As the sun sank toward the horizon yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont, convective showers were developing across
the lake in New York, taking advantage of oddly
humid air for November. 

Thursday in Vermont had to be one of the most summer-like November days in history. 

It started bright and early with balmy breezes and a giant rainbow over northwest Vermont, that I regret to say I missed.  

Burlington tied a record for the warmest low temperature on this date, with 60 degrees. It also tied the record for the second warmest low for the entire month of November. 

 The warmest November low, of 62 degrees, was during the record-smashing November heat of 2022.

Clouds kept highs in Vermont yesterday in the 60s, which is very balmy, but not quite record-setting. But dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, reached to around 60 degrees. That would have been typical of July, not November. 

With that humidity around, convective downpours and even thunderstorms erupted in northern Vermont last evening. Nothing severe, but still quite unseasonable. 

We're now starting the path back down to November reality. Let's get into the details

TODAY

It'll be one last mild day, but not quite as warm as it's been. Already, temperatures at dawn today were slightly cooler than yesterday. but still balmy by Vermont standards. It was in the 40s north and 50s south. 

We're going to eke out a nice day, especially considering it will be decidedly unpleasant not far to our east and west. 

A flood watch is in effect for southeastern New England due to expected heavy rain today and tonight from a stalled, very wet front.  Western New York is in for a showery day due to a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

Vermont, meanwhile, will spend the day in a gap between these two weather system.  So, we'll have a little sunshine mixed with clouds, and highs will get into the toasty 60s. Toasty for November, anyway. 

Enjoy it, since such mild days will be rare indeed until next spring. 

Some models bring that coastal rain inland to the Connecticut River Valley later today and tonight,  but that's uncertain.  Radar indicated some rain moving into southern Vermont at mid-morning, so it does seem like parts of eastern Vermont might not be quite as nice as western parts of the state. We shall see this afternoon!

SATURDAY

That western New York upper low will come through New England Saturday. It still looks like the heavier rain might hit southern Vermont, but some models bring a good amount of rain to northern areas. 

For now, it looks like rainfall will amount to a quarter inch or less north of Route 2, gradually increasing to more than a half inch in far southern Vermont. However, some models bring more rain to northern Vermont than what this morning's forecast 

Highs will be in the 50s, which is a little warmer than normal for this time of year. But temperatures will fall well into the 30s. That means rain will probably change to snow in the high elevations. A few areas above 1,500 feet could get a couple inches of slushy snow. 

SUNDAY

Rain, and a little mountaintop snow, will tend to taper off in the morning. The rest of the day will remain cloudy and raw, so, so depressingly typical for November. Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50. That's pretty normal for this time of year. 

NEXT WEEK

This will be a typical November week in Vermont. That means a fair amount of clouds, chilly temperatures, and occasional risks of rain or snow showers. We'll have a rapid-fire series of disturbances blowing in from the northwest 

Drought Monitor Says Drought, Dryness Worsened In Vermont

Drought and dryness in Vermont worsened in the 
past week. Pretty much all of the Northeast
Kingdom is in drought (orange shading).
Virtually all of the rest of Vermont, aside 
from the extreme northwest corner is
abnormally dry (yellow shading).

To no real surprise, drought and dryness in Vermont worsened over the past week, as the state is still enduring a lack of rain. 

The latest weekly U.S.Drought Monitor, released Thursday morning, indicates drought expanded. 

Last week, 14% of the Northeast Kingdom was drought. This week, the Northeast Kingdom drought expanded to include nearly a third of the state, covering pretty much the entire NEK.

Virtually all of the state is now at least abnormally dry.  Last week 81 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry or in drought, according to the Drought Monitor. This week, 97 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought, the Monitor said. 

Only a tiny corner in far northwest Vermont is not officially experiencing oddly dry ground conditions. 

The Drought Monitor uses data that ends each Tuesday.  During the week studied, Vermont had less than a tenth of an inch of new rain. 

The forecast isn't encourage, but at least some rain is coming. Current forecasts give Vermont another quarter to a half inch of rain over the next several days. We'll take every drop of rain, but we could really use a much bigger soaker before winter sets in. 

Another Vermont Autumn, Another Record Hot Spell, Only Light Rain Coming Instead Of Needed Soaker

Some lingering golden leaves on trees in Burlington,
Vermont yesterday amid record high temperatures. 

 A couple weeks ago, I thought this autumn might break from recent tradition and yield no record warm spells in Vermont. 

Yesterday dispelled that notion. 

The updates show some impressively warm weather across the state on Wednesday. Burlington actually had one of the "cooler" high temperatures at 73 degrees, with tied the record for the date. Burlington's low temperature for yesterday was 59 degrees. breaking the record for the warmest low for the date by five degrees.

The record-smashing was even more impressive elsewhere in Vermont. Montpelier reached an impressive 76 degrees, besting the 72 degrees original set in 2022. St. Johnsbury was almost hot - reaching 77 degrees. That beat the old record by four degrees. 

Autumn in Vermont aren't what they used to be, that's for sure. 

Until now, this autumn was a little closer to they way they used to be. Not much in the way of summer weather, a fair number of frosty mornings in October. But yesterday changed that, for now 

We've alway had the occasional warm spell. But lately, it's been a nearly yearly occurrence. 

In 2022, Burlington reached 76 degrees in November 6, the hottest temperature on record for the month. On October 4, 2023. it was 86 degrees in Burlington, the hottest reading on record for the entire month October.

On Halloween, 2024, it was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest for so late in the season. Plattsburgh New York got to an incredible 83 degrees that day. Last October, the record hot temperature of 86 degrees was tied in Burlington. Montpelier also reached its record high for the month of 84 degrees.

Now we had another autumn record spell. Not quite as big a recent years, but still. 

FORECAST

It's going to stay balmy for the next couple of days. Not quite record warm, but still. Let's get into it. 

Today

A little rain is coming through this morning, but I'm completely unimpressed by how much. Most of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Mostly this morning. 

The air is unusually humid for this time of year, but there's not much lift in the atmosphere. Without the lift, you don't get much rain. So the moisture in the air is basically wasted. 

Be glad little bits and sprinkles of more rain is on the way for the next few days. That will keep the risk of forest fires suppressed some until we get a nice soaker. Some day. New England needs it. An illegal brush pile fire in Ferrisburgh, Vermont spread yesterday, It took six fire crews to contain the blaze. 

A much bigger fire is burning through rugged terrain near the northern New Hampshire/western Maine border. That fire has chewed through about 1,000 acres and at last report was only 11 percent contained. 

Back here in Vermont, it will still be very warm, but not quite record breaking. Highs should get into the mid and upper 60s. Breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help boost those temperatures. 

With the warmth and unusual humidity - dew points are in 50s to near 60, we actually have a shot of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Especially in far northwestern Vermont. 

Friday

Still warm. Dawn will break with temperatures near 50, which is a near-normal high for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-60s. We'll be caught between a very wet, nearly stalled weather front along the southeastern New England coast and an upper level low near western New York.

The result for us is almost no chance of rain, and partly sunny skies

Saturday

Back to reality. The upper low in western New York will amble in, creating a lot of showers. This is our best shot at getting some fairly decent rain, but so far I'm not too impressed. So far, it looks like the best chance of good rains is in southern Vermont, but that depends on the track of this thing. 

For now, it's looking like most of us will receive less than a quarter inch of rain, which is much less than we really need. 

It'll be cooler, too, but not ridiculous for November. We'll put highs in the 50s.

Sunday/Next Week

A dip in the jet stream will keep the weather unsettled and cool, but with no big storms. We'll have frequent chances of showers, which will probably mix with snow at times, especially in the mountains. 

It's that time of year, folks!

Record Highs Around Vermont Today

Much of Vermont had record high
temperatures today. 

 As expected, record high temperatures hit in and around Vermont today. 

The following high temperatures I'll list here are preliminary.  Actual temperatures from today might end up slightly different than our list this evening. I'll have a full updated tomorrow morning. 

So here, we go:

Burlington reached at least 73 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

Montpelier got to at least 75 breaking the record of 72 degrees in 2022.

St. Johnsbury reached at least 75 degrees, breaking a record of 73 in 1990.

Rutland reached at least 75 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

We have two more rather warm days coming up, at least for November, but the highs won't be quite enough to break more records. 

Again, more details coming tomorrow morning. 

Record Warmth Likely In Vermont Today, But Unfortunately, Not Much Rain Coming

This flower in St. Albans, Vermont somehow 
survived the frosts of October, and should end
up enjoying record warmth today. 

 With energy price so high, we're going to pray for odd warm spells here in Vermont all winter. 

We've got your first such spell now, and it will lead to record high temperatures today. 

It's been mild the past few days. My furnace has been off since Sunday afternoon. 

Even yesterday, with the gloom and light showers over northern Vermont, the house remained comfortable enough as outdoor high temperatures reached the low 60s. 

As expected, rainfall amounts Tuesday were pretty pathetic. Burlington had jus .07 inches. Most of central and southern Vermont received nothing.  

Not all that much rain is coming in the next few days, but at least we will receive some raindrops. More on that in a bit. 

But I'm burying the lede. Let's get into the warm (for now) forecast. It won't last forever, as it will be seasonably chilly by the weekend. 

TODAY

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley were near 60 degrees this morning, which is close to what  you'd expect on a July morning. It was cooler east of the Green Mountains, with lows in the 40s, but that's still not bad for early November. 

This afternoon's highs won't quite make it to July levels, but you'll surely feel one last hint of summer today. It's a good day to play hooky from work or school. Especially for the many of you who are pleased with the election results from yesterday. 

Under partly sunny skies,  highs across Vermont should hit the low and mid 70s. That's definitely record territory for the date. There's even a slight chance there could be a record or two set for the entire month of November. 

In Burlington, the hottest November on record was 76 degrees on November 6, 2022. The forecast high in Burlington today is 74. If the warmth over-performs, we could tie that record. 

Winds will keep running steady from the south. In central and southern Vermont, where it didn't rain yesterday. the fire danger is pretty high today. 

THURSDAY

Morning lows will be very mild again. Lows will be near 50 in valleys in eastern Vermont to near 60 in the Champlain Valley. Those lows will be warmer than normal highs for this time of year. A weakening cold front will come in with showers during the morning. Those showers will last into at least part of the afternoon.

This won't' count too much. The front will be falling apart, so we'll only receive a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. It'll still be mild, with highs into the 60s, despite the rain. 

There could be a bit of a break in the rain during the afternoon. But more moisture will come in with a little more evening rain.

FRIDAY

Since the front will have fallen apart, we won't yet see any cooler weather. It will feel maybe strangely a little humid for this time of year. Highs should once again get into the 60s. Though it probably will be generally cloudy, we'll have little or no rain. 

SATURDAY

A storm will go by to our east, along the New England coast. That will dump heavy rain in parts of southeast New England. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system will be spinning over western New York and headed our way.  

The end result will be showers. Nothing heavy, but probably enough to make the day kind of gloomy and not fit for a lot of outdoor activity. It will be cooler, too. But not cold. Highs should reach the 50s, which is still a little warmer than average for this time of year. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Even though it won't be terribly cold for this time of year, the showers could change to snow in the mountains. That's very normal for this time of year. The valleys could see some lingering rain showers. 

Sunday should be cloudy and seasonably cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 50. A few light showers could linger. 

NEXT WEEK

Long range forecasts are iffy, as I always say. It looks like it will be seasonably chilly, with risks of showers and mostly mountain snow showers. We shouldn't see any big storms, though. 

Very Mild Vermont November Week'; Forecasters Unfortunately Reduce Expected Rainfall Totals

Camels Hump pokes from behind some other hills in
Richmond, Vermont yesterday. It's stick season, but
it doesn't feel like it this week, as we're enjoying
some unusually mild weather this week. 

 Monday brought Vermont some of the warm weather we wish we had more of during the second half of October. 

Burlington had a nice warm high of 68 degrees Monday after a balmy low of 52, which meant the day was 16 degrees warmer than average. 

That's the largest departure for any date in Burlington since May 19, when an early season heat wave pushed us to 20 degrees above normal. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, Monday was just as warm or warmer than Burlington. Montpelier reached 69 degrees. It was 70 in St. Johnsbury and a toasty 72 in Springfield. 

This morning started warm, too, with low temperatures statewide in the mid 40s to low 50s. This helps set us up for four days of warm November temperatures before it's back to reality.  

So, let's get into it, like we do every morning. 

TODAY

It will actually be a bit cooler today than yesterday, thanks to clouds and some light showers that will should sprinkle the northern parts of the state. 

But it will still be warmer than normal. Where the rain falls most frequently in the far north, highs will be in the upper 50s, which is nearly ten degrees above normal. Southern valleys, which likely woh't receive any rain at all, highs could touch the upper 60s. 

Areas along and north of Route 2 will probably have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a touch more near Jay Peak.  No rain is expected in central and southern Vermont, just clouds. 

WEDNESDAY

After another balmy morning, the day will turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Very warm. Maybe record warm. This morning's forecast has a predicted high of 73 which would tie the record high for the date. 

The National Weather Service has Montpelier reaching 74 degrees. Their record high tomorrow is 72 degrees. The forecast high in St. Johnsbury is 72, close to the record high of 73. 

Enjoy it, as Wednesday will likely be the warmest day until next spring. 

THURSDAY

A weather front will approach us from the west, a little earlier in the day than first thought. Which means the rain will arrive earlier than first thought. Light rain will move into western Vermont by early to mid morning and spread into the rest of the state by noon, give or take. 

Given how dry it has been, we need a soaker. Unfortunately, this will not be a soaker. Just light rain. Most of us will just receive 0.1 to 0.25 of rain, maybe a little less than in southeastern Vermont.  It won't be enough to ease our dry conditions, but we'll take anything we can get. 

FRIDAY: 

The front will have gone by to our east, but an upper level trough of low pressure will linger overhead.. That means we'll have lots  of clouds and a chance of showers. Cooler air will stay bottled up to our northwest for one more day, so we'll see some mild low 60s for highs despite the clouds. 

SATURDAY

A couple days ago, we hoped a storm would form along the front along the East Coast, then curl northwestward toward New England, drenching Vermont in a soaking rain. 

So much for that idea. The storm will form, but will stay far enough away so that we won't see a soaking rain. Maybe some showers.  It'll be a little cooler but still not bad, with highs in the 50s. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday is several days away, so we can't be too confident about the forecast. But for now, it's looking partly sunny and seasonably cool. There are more chances of rain next week. 

Vermont October Was Sunny - With Oddly Warm Days And Cold Nights; Dry Stretch Continued

October saw many days like this - clear skies with cold 
mornings and mild afternoons. The month was
overall slightly cooler than average, but days were
warmer than average, nights were colder
than average. 

 You probably noticed how often I referenced "big, fat high pressure systems" during October. 

Now, the figures are in and October in Vermont featured warmer than average daytimes and colder than average nights. 

That's unusual, but it makes sense in context of those big, fat high pressure systems. 

Those high pressure systems brought lots of unusually dry, sunny days. That meant the sun heated afternoons to the point they averaged above normal. It also meant nights got cold and frosty. 

Burlington's average low temperature was 38.7 degrees, which is a tad over three degrees below the "new normal." 

The nights were so cold that eight nights got into the 20s, the most since 2002, when there were also eight. The last time there were more than eight such nights in the 20s was way back in 1974, when there were ten such dates. This according to WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul. 

Add it all up, the average temperature turned out to be 49.2 degrees, which was 1.1 degrees below the "new normal."

The result was a month that on paper ended up averaging near normal. 

Take Burlington, the main reporting station had an average high during October was 59.6 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees above the "new normal" 

"New normal" is the climate-changed average temperature, based on all the temperatures from 1991 to 2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average. 

Overall, October comes in somewhere in the middle of the past 136 years of records I have for Burlington.  It was the 74th coolest, (or 62nd warmest) on record. 

The warmest it ever got in Burlington during October was 70 degrees. That's the lowest October high since 2009. The low of 26 was the coldest since 2015. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it was much the same. The average daytime hight at other weather stations across the state were about two degrees warmer than normal, give or take. Overnight lows were generally two to as much as three degrees colder than average. 

The bottom line: For places across the state, it was a month that was near to about a degree below the "new normal"  we're living under.  

Precipitation

It was a dry month statewide, thanks in large part to those big, fat high pressure systems that kept a lot of rainy storms at bay. 

In Burlington, October rainfall amounted to 2.52 inches, with is 1.31 inches lighter than normal. That left Burlington with the 55th driest October out of the past 127 years of records. 

Other reporting stations across Vermont were equally dry, or even worse. St. Johnsbury was among the "wettest," coming in just about two-thirds of an inch on the dry side. Montpelier's rainfall were a little over an inch below normal. 

Southern Vermont was even worse. Rutland had only 1.33 inches of rain, which was 2.65 inches below normal. Bennington had about 2.2 inches less rain that an October would normally bring. 

Outlook

As we've mentioned already, November is off to a mild start. For what it's worth, NOAA is calling for a classic, strong El Nino pattern across the nation. The northern half of the United States is forecast to be warmer than normal during November. 

Precipitation in November is expected to be above normal across the southern United States and in eh Plains. Here in Vermont, NOAA has our precipitation as a tossup - equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

As always, we shall see. 

Warm Start To November, Needed Rain (Hopefully!) Looms

The now leafless Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, yesterday
as a warm sun sets early now that Daylight Savings
 Time is over. 

 Boy, Sunday was gorgeous, especially for the beginning of November.  

It was wall-to-wall sunshine with temperatures rising well into the 50s. Light winds, too. 

This whole week will be mild for November, with changes coming. The long dry spell is on its last legs.  Maybe some rain in the far north later Tuesday, then maybe some better rains statewide Thursday. 

Here are the details, as we always do them. 

TODAY

We seared the day balmy, especially in the Champlain Valley, where dawn temperatures were around 50 degrees. East of the Green Mountains, it was in the 30s at dawn, normal for this time of year. 

By afternoon, temperatures will converge statewide on the low 60s. Maybe even mid-60s in the warmest valleys, especially south.  For comparison, normal highs this time of year are near 50 degrees. So enjoy the warmth. 

TUESDAY

It'll be a cloudier day overall, especially in the northern half of Vermont. Light rain will start to move into northern Vermont during the afternoon. Once again, it won't amount to much. But by the time it ends at night, areas north of Route 2 will have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a little more than that in the far northern Champlain Valley. 

Southern Vermont will have nothing. 

Temperatures will be warm again, with highs near 60 degrees.

WEDNESDAY

This will be a pretty spectacular day for November. Sunshine should prevail, with highs flirting with 70 degrees. Record highs that day are in the low 70s, so we'll be close. 

THURSDAY

This could be the day it rains. Really rains. I mean, not all that much rain, but something that should get us wet for a change.  It'll be warm for the season again, with highs in the low 60s. Rain should continue into the night. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another follow-up storm looks like it might form along the coast, which would keep the rain going, especially Saturday, The rain could linger into Sunday. We don't know how much rain we'll get, but there's the potential for more than inch. So stay tuned! 

Vermont Weather Flipping To Milder As We Switch Into November

A cold look to the atmosphere in St. Albans, Vermont as
October closed. November will open with much
milder weather and eventually, chances of rain

 I'm getting a late start today, sorry about that!  

October went out yesterday true to form with skies that were somewhat cloudier than forecast and temperatures that stayed cool.  The high in Burlington yesterday was only 48 degrees. I noticed in places like Eden, Vermont, mid-afternoon temperatures were only 39 degrees. 

A fitting end to one of the coldest Octobers in recent years. I'll have more on that in another post later today or tomorrow. 

We started the day in the low to mid 20s again today, but chilly October is over, in favor of mild November, at least for now. 

This week, for a change, is going to warmer than normal. Probably not record breaking warm, but still, pleasant for November. 

On top of that, our long dry spell looks like it will finally end toward the end of the week. It's still unclear how much rain will fall, but if we're lucky, it could be substantial. We're also into the season of snow, but so far, 

Let's get into the dailies

REST OF TODAY

 Gorgeous! Wall to wall sunshine and highs well into the 50s. Enjoy!

MONDAY

Another beautiful day for November. Partly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. For comparisons, highs this time of year are normally near 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

More clouds than Monday, especially north, but some sun will filter through at times.  It'll be mild again, with highs up near 60 degrees.

Some showers might come through northern Vermont in the afternoon and evening, but, like the past few episodes, amounts will be very light. If it rains at all, it will amount to only a few hundredth of an inch of rain. 

WEDNESDAY

At this point, it's look partly sunny and balmy. Highs should reach well into the 60s to near 70 degrees.  This might actually threaten sone record highs. We'll need to see any adjustments in the forecast either way to see whether that will happen or not. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

There's a lot of questions as to when rain will arrive and how much.  We might eke out another dry day, but we're not sure yet. There seem to be a  better chance of rain Thursday night. We don't know yet how long the rain will last. 

But it could go into the weekend. It will probably turn colder by then, However, the coldest air will stay far to our north, so it don't look for any low elevation snowstorms just yet. 

Halloween Vermont Weather Not Spooky; Warming Trend Coming Amid Continued Dry Weather

Gray skies, cold winds, bare trees in Franklin County,
Vermont yesterday. Stick season is here. 

 Today and tomorrow morning are going to be the last in a long stretch of mostly cold weather, but the dry weather will roll on well into next week.  

It's been a remarkably cold October in Vermont, especially in this age of climate change.

 I'll have more on that tomorrow. Yesterday. especially in northern Vermont, it was a proper introduction to stick season - cold northwest winds, gray skies, leafless trees. Noah Kahan would be proud. 

It was a little sunnier in southern Vermont valleys, but it still wasn't exactly warm. 

As we flip the calendar to November, it will actually warm  up, for awhile anyway. 

But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's get into the forecasts:

TODAY

We've got a cold Halloween to get through. Not ridiculously cold, but it'll put a proper scary chill in your bones, especially at sunset and after dark, when temperatures should plunge nicely.

During the day,  we'll have a lot of sunshine, a lot more than yesterday. But a small disturbance will swing some high and mid-level clouds through for awhile in the late afternoon and evening. 

 North breezes will continue all day, but it won't be as gusty as yesterday. But the breeze will hold afternoon temperatures down in the mid and upper 40s. Low 50s is a few warmer valleys. 

The dry air we have means it'll get colder fast as the sun sets, as noted. The kids probably want to wear something warm under the Pokemon costumes. Early evening temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s during the trick or treating hours. 

SUNDAY

The weather will be awfully familiar, one that we've seen so often this October. The day will start below freezing statewide pretty much everywhere. Wall-to-wall sunshine will bring temperatures will up into the comfortable mid and upper 50s during the afternoon. Maybe a spot 60 in the warmest valleys??

NEXT WEEK

The persistent pattern of big, fat, chilly high pressure systems coming through is ending. The last in the series is overhead today.  

How the new weather pattern eventually evolves is up for debate, but it's still an open question on whether we'll get some decent precipitation out of this new pattern. Gawd knows we need it. 

Monday looks partly cloudy, and Tuesday looks cloudier. There might even be a late day sprinkle north on Tuesday. Highs both days looks like they will be within a few degrees either side of 60. Normal highs this time of year are near 50 degrees.

The nights will be milder, too, So this will give us a little break for those of us who are dealing with high heating costs. 

Some sort of storm will come by during the second half of the week. We don't know yet what shape this will take, when it will give us any rain. We also don't know how much rain. It could be sprinkles, it could be a drencher, it could be something in between. 

Stay tuned!