Snow To Miss All But Far Southern Vermont Today, But Statewide Snow Friday?

Still a bit of a canyon in the snow on the trip from my
front door to the truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Not
much snow melted over the past couple days.
Southern Vermont to get a little more snow later
today, and a few inches of snow looks likely
Friday and Friday night. 

 Yesterday afternoon, some clarity finally came into the forecast, and we learned that most of Vermont will avoid the snow today after all. 

The computer models finally got their act together and decided a cold front would push any snow coming in from the west more to the south. Only far southern Vermont is under the gun for snow today. 

However, there's a high chance of plowable snow Friday and Friday night. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory late this afternoon and tonight. So is central New York and the western half of Massachusetts.  As has so often been the case this winter, the snow will hit down there just as this afternoon's commute home gets under way. 

In the valley floors around Bennington, Shaftesbury in the west, and near Brattleboro in the east, it might start out mixed with rain or sleet as temperatures will be a little above freezing as the precipitation gets under way. 

In part because of the mix, and the warm temperatures, accumulation won't be huge, maybe 1.5 to 3.5 inches in Bennington and Windham counties. A little light snow might make it as far north as about Route 4 this evening, but that's about it. 

The rest of Vermont will have a pretty nice day.  Fog, low clouds and haze were mixing out to reveal blue skies this morning. High clouds will dim  and maybe blot out the sun this afternoon in northern areas as as that disturbance heads toward southern Vermont. The northern half of the state will also be cooler than yesterday. But highs in the 26 to 33 degree range aren't bad!

THURSDAY

Looks great! Sunny, with highs in the 30s to near 40 in southern valleys. The Champlain Valley will actually be the chilliest part of the state instead of one of the warmest, like it usually is.

When the lake is frozen, it's even easier for a shallow layer of cooler air hugging the ground to slip southward from Quebec into the Champlain Valley.. So highs there will only be in the low 30s, while nearby hillsides above that shallow cold air flirt with 40 degree in spots.  

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT

This looks like the moment that will cheer Vermont snow lovers. One storm will head up from the central Plains to the Great Lakes where it will fade in favor of a new one forming just south of New England. The new storm will then head eastward out to sea.

We in Vermont look like we'll be in between the two storms. That'll put us into a position to get a good but brief thump of fairly heavy snow Friday afternoon or evening, followed by a long period of light snow lasting through much of Saturday. 

Early guesses give us four, five, maybe six inches of snow out of this. It won't be big storm, but it will probably mean most of Vermont will end the week with a slight net gain of snow cover,  despite some thawing we've had.

I'll have more details on this storm tomorrow.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

The Northeast looks like it will have a close miss early next week. A "bomb" nor'easter looks like it wants to form a little off the coast of North Carolina Sunday night. This thin will really turn into an absolute monster of a storm by Monday southeast of New England.

As it looks now, it'll probably cause some gales over Cape Cod and the islands.  We're lucky this thing will stay well offshore instead of hugging the New England coast.  If this nor'easter were to come right up into New England, there would be a blizzard with lots of coastal damage. 

We'll keep an eye on that nor'easter in case it wants to surprise us, but so far I think we're safe. 

Some really dramatic weather is hitting much of the U.S. I'll have a report on that here later today. For us in Vermont, it looks like we'll just keep being blissful bystanders.

 The weather pattern looks like it will stay active for us, with several small to medium sized storms possible through the first week of March. As it looks now, it seems like it might be cold enough so that most of what we get from those storms would be snow

Winter ain't over yet!  

The Pace Of Climate Change Is Accelerating. Will El Nino Make Things Worse?

The pace of climate change on Earth has quickened in
recent years. Will the faster pace get even faster, or
will things revert back to a more manageable pace.
That will have a lot of repercussions as how
we deal with a hotter planet.

 Now that it looks more likely an El Nino will set in later this year, scientists are debating how hot it will get. 

The three most recent years have been by far the world's hottest on record. El Ninos tend to make the world even hotter.

That's not good news. 

Since we're starting from such an already overheated position, will a new El Nino put ups on a  dangerous new trajectory in which the world will heat up at a new, faster pace. 

Or was it a hiccup, and we'll revert to a somewhat more relaxed but still scary increase in global heat?

Both options are bad, but the rapid heat up version is obviously most frightening, as we'd quickly enter a world where heat waves blow far past anything previously recorded and storms would make Hurricane Melissa look like a refreshing tropical shower. 

In the past decade or two, the past of global heating has accelerated. Which makes people wonder it were at the start of an era when things really spiral out of control.

WHERE WE ARE

A Washington Post analysis found that although the Earth has been warming for a century or more by now, the fastest rate of warming has been over the past 30 years. 

Per WaPo

"For about 40 years -- from 1970 to 2010 - global warming proceeded at a fairly steady rate. As humans continued to pump massive amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, the world warmed about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade or around 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Then, that rate began to shift. The warming rate ticked up a notch. Temperatures over the past decade increased buy close to 0.27 degrees  C per decade - about a 42 percent increase." 

In matters of climate, a decade is a really short period. So this new intense rate of warming might be a big deal. Or it could be a blip caused by factors other than fossil fuel emissions.

Ominously, a number of climate scientists are leaning toward the idea that this is a real acceleration that will last, especially since it's been so robust.

 "There is a greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.  

Many people in the eastern half of the United States can be forgiven if they think climate change is sputtering, since it's been so cold there. 

However overall, January was the world's fifth hottest on record. (I'll have more details on January in a separate post). 

While the eastern U.S. froze many other parts or the world were ablaze with unseasonable heat. Much of the western third of the United States has had a record warm winter. Nuuk, Greenland ran an incredible 20 degrees warmer than normal during January. And are plenty of other examples. '

In other words, the recent cold weather was just a temporary fluke. 

EL NINO URGENCY

This idea that climate change might be accelerating isn't all that new. The buzz began in earnest when 2024 became the hottest year on record. This, after 2023 absolutely obliterated 2016 as the previous worldwide record for hot year.

But as we went through 2025, a La Nina pattern that usually cools the Earth barely moved the needle downward. Last year was the third warmest on record, barely behind he previous two years. Now that La Nina is fading, we're starting at that high base line for when El Nino roasts the planet toward more records,.

The cooler La Nina was fading fast this month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center last week said we'd go into neutral conditions soon (neither La Nina or El Nino). El Nino would probable wait until autumn to arrive. 

 Since El Nino is starting later this year, climatologists are beginning to make 2026 seems unlikely to become the hottest year.  

The UK Met Office is predicting 2026 will end up as second warmest, behind 2024. Which means it will be slightly warmer than the hot years of 2023 and 2024

Hausfather thinks 2026 will be among the top four hottest on record.

 The year to watch is 2027 when, if trends continue, the unprecedented global heat could turn especially intolerable.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

So why didn't the La Nina we just experienced over the past year or so fail to cool the world down noticeably?

One explanation for the added warming is pollution controls. We've seen news on this before, too. Asian nations, and the shipping industry have cut back on sulfur pollutions. Those environmental laws have removed particles called sulfate aerosols from the atmosphere. 

That allows the sun to shine stronger and brighter, heating the world even more.  

However, as WaPo explains, the missing sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere doesn't  explain all the recent warming.  Neither does natural variability.

Scientists, said they've notice low-lying cloud cover has decreased. Those clouds reflect sunlight. Fewer clouds mean more heat. 

One question is why are the clouds disappearing?  Clouds tend to form around particles. A lack of sulfate in the atmosphere might mean fewer particles for clouds to develop. This could create a feedback loop. Fewer clouds mean more heating. That additional heat makes still fewer clouds form, and it all feeds on itself from there.  

The Washington Post explains the question

"If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero - and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate.

But if it's due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue - and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts. 'If there is a strengthening cloud feedback - a positive cloud feedback associated with warming - that's going to persist,' Hausfather said."

The  bottom line is, we're playing with fire. The faster climate change moves, the harder it will be to adapt to it, and the more damage and suffering we'll encounter. 

This should be a sign we ought to double down on reducing fossil fuel emissions, and quickly. Humankind has barely been able to manage the changing climate so far. If things go a lot faster than they are now, god help us.  

After A Springlike Monday, Winter Returns To Vermont

Huge pile of snow an ice at my front door that 
crashed down seconds after Henry the Weather
Dog warned about it. Thawing temperatures
today will continue to sent ice  and snow
sliding from Vermont roofs

I hope you had a chance to go outside yesterday. It was such a relief to go outside without 15 layers of clothes on. Temperature in the 30s felt like hard core spring compared to what we went through this winter. 

And I have to give great kudos and thanks to Henry the Weather Dog.  He's just a little guy.weighing in at 18 pounds. 

We went outside yesterday afternoon to investigate just how warm it was getting.  The two of us were finishing up and were about to go in through the front door  of the house

A tiny piece of ice fell off the roof. Then Henry heard a noise that I didn't notice. He bolted away from the house. Since he was on a leash, he pretty much yanked me away, too. 

 As soon as we were far enough away, the entire roof load of ice and snow crashed down right where we had been standing by the door.

Both of us really could  have been hurt.  Good boy, Henry! 

That's just a reminder that there are still some big piles of snow and ice on roofs that could come crashing down, since it will be above freezing again today. You might not want to stand beneath one of those roof ice dams, or park your car there. 

Now on to the weather. 

TODAY

Henry the Weather Dog spent much of February like'
this, so he was happy for yesterday's warm weather
despite the close call with the snow sliding off the roof

A lot of us had a little wet snow and freezing drizzle this morning. It wasn't amounting to much and it will tend to taper off as we go through the day. I'm sure the weather this morning left some slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks. It's still that time of year.

It was also mild overnight, which is a nice break on the heating bills. The Champlain Valley stayed in the mid-30s all night while the rest of the state was in the upper 20s for the most part. 

There's no real influx of warm air breezing in, so temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 30s today. A few warmer valleys could hit 40. There won't be much sun today, either.  No complaints here. That's still pretty nice for February.

That will be pretty much it for thawing for awhile. Daily high temperatures for at least the next week after today should mostly be near or below freezing. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

Frustratingly, forecasters are still struggling with what will happen tomorrow. A narrow band of precipitation will make its way into New England. Precipitation will probably come down at a good clip   for awhile in the midst of that band. Most of it should be snow, too. 

So who gets this slap of winter?   It's only a day before the event but the computer models are still struggling. At the moment, the snow band seems to be leaning toward setting up in southern Vermont.  

An early crack at guessing accumulations would bring three or four inches, maybe even five, to the southern half of Vermont. Central Vermont would get a couple inches and places north of Route 2 would see less than an inch. 

Don't be surprised if those  forecast amounts changes by tomorrow.  There's a chance that today's accumulation forecast turns out to be a complete work of fiction. Wherever this sets up, it'll probably come in right in time for the Wednesday afternoon commute. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we'll stay in a wintry, active pattern. It won't be as cold as the first half of February was, but we're not getting an early spring, either. 

There's a solid chance of more snow Friday night from a mid-sized storm coming through. After that, several storms will pass fairly nearby through the rest of the month and into the opening days of March, but it's too soon to know how or even if they'll affect us here in Vermont.  

If you're tired of the snow in your yard, too bad. It's going to be there for awhile. 

Death Valley Strangely About To Become A Flowery Paradise

Death Valley, California looked anything
but dead in this photo of the last super
 bloom in 2016. It looks like Death
Valley is on the verge of a new 
super bloom.  Photo from Wildlife
Trekking/Facebook.

Work with me here, but I really wish I was in Death Valley now.

I know, I know . Why would I want to go to a ridiculously hot place that's barren, sandy, rocky and sometimes dangerous? 

The reason to go is a relatively rare super bloom of flowers that is just beginning to blossom into desert gorgeousness.    Since my big perennial beds in Vermont are buried beneath a foot of snow and are frozen rock solid, you can understand my reasoning. I desperately need winter flower therapy. 

Death Valley super blooms come maybe once in a decade. Park rangers there say there was one in 2016 and another in 2005. It was a pretty good flower year in 2024, but last year was pretty colorless amid drought and early season heat. 

Though a few flowers and interesting plants sprouts every year in February and March, this year's Death Valley Dream looks like it might be spectacular.  

To be Captain Obvious, Death Valley doesn't get a lot of rain. To get a super bloom, you need some heavy showers that come just at the right time.    The best time for that is late autumn or very early winter. 

This past November was soggy by Death Valley standards. They got 1.76 inches of rain, compared to normal of just 0.10. 

Next, you need warm weather. Temperatures have been above normal in the region over much of the winter. 

A cool spell is moving in to Death Valley, but it won't be enough to harm any plants. Plus, some more showers are likely daily today through Tuesday night. 

After this latest bout of rain, temperatures look like they'll start to warm up again in the desert, with temperatures maybe reaching close to 80 in about a week and a half. 

So it looks good. 

Super blooms go fast, as the desert designs plants so that they quickly sprout from seeds, produce flowers, then convert those flowers to a lot more seeds for next time. This will all happen well before summer, for good reason, Death Valley is the hottest place on earth. Summertime temperatures regularly go into the 110s and 120s,   . 

The best time to see the blooms is now through early April.  Wonderful flowers last into May in higher elevations. You can find some great flowers and plants as late as July way up high around 8,000 feet or higher. But who wants to climb a steep desert mountain when the temperatures is higher than the hot chocolate or coffee you're drinking as you read this.

Alas, I won't be going out to Death Valley for this year's super  bloom. But I hope other people do, and post what they see on line for the world to see.

VIDEO

That last Death Valley Super Bloom was in 2016.  Associated Press video walks you through how it looked like. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Still Not Much Clarity On Vermont Weather Forecast But Some New Clues Emerging

A big icicle formed on my shed yesterday as the
warming sun of mid-February increasingly fights
against the cold. Today will actually feel rather
springlike but winter isn't done with us yet. 

 If you have plans for this coming Wednesday and Wednesday night in Vermont, we can't help you much with any weather forecasts Those annoying computer weather forecasting models are still arguing amongst themselves. 

Which is odd, since Wednesday is only two days away. More on that in a minute, but if you are more of in the moment type, we've got you covered.

TODAY/TOMORROW

For starters, today will be the most springlike day we've had yet.  Temperatures should get well into the 30s across most valleys, and we should have a fair amount of sun, which feels warmer and stronger now that we're nearly two months past the winter solstice. Winds will be on the light side too,

I get it. A day with a high of 37 degrees isn't exactly full-blown spring. But it's a start after the frigid weather we've had over the past month. 

Any hints of spring are fleeting this time of year, too, and so it goes this time. Yet another weak disturbance should come through later tonight and early tomorrow. As has so often been the case this winter, the system is no big deal, but might have atrocious timing. 

The problem is some light snow showers might switch over to light, patchy freezing drizzle just in time for the Tuesday morning commute. In the case of any kind of freezing rain, it takes only a tiny bit to send your car flying off the road and into a ditch if you're not careful enough.

The tricky thing is this will be patchy and temperatures will be just below freezing. So you'll be cruising along on just wet pavement, then all of a sudden it's ice and the cars and trucks on the Interstate are suddenly doing a literally smashing dance with each other. 

So, slow it down just in case Tuesday morning. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

We're to the point now in which we can say there will probably be some sort of precipitation in at least part of Vermont Wednesday and Wednesday night.   

Tbat's not very helpful, but that's all we've got for now. 

A storm in the Midwest will be heading in our direction but it will be shearing out on its way east. That means the storm will be pulled and stretched and weakened. And therein lies the forecast questions. 

By the time it gets to New England, it will be a fairly narrow band of snow or mixed precipitation. Colder high pressure from Quebec will on Wednesday try to nose down into New England, while to the south, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will tried to feed into our weakening storm.

So, will the cold air win out and we get nothing? Or will the warm air win and we end up with a mix? Or, choice #3 favored by our winter sports industry, does this thing just drop a swath of snow right across Vermont.

For now, the best guess is far northern Vermont gets little or no snow, and perhaps far southern Vermont sees a mix with snow in the middle. Whatever happens, this doesn't look like it will be a blockbuster storm. 

But don't hang onto that gift to the ski gods scenario.  We should have a more clear view on this tomorrow. Or at least we'd better, as time is running out. 

After Wednesday, the weather pattern looks really active, so there will be several other chances for snow or a mix between now and early March.  I'm not even going to try and tease those out yet. 

"Frost Quakes" Another Aspect Of Harsh Winter Of '26 Not Seen In Ages

Frost quakes rarely cause damage, but in this recent case
it caused a bulge underneath a Michigan  convenience
store that damaged some of the flooring.   

It's a frigid winter night, and all of a sudden you hear a boom and the house shakes.

An earthquake, right? 

No, not in the traditional sense. People in several places in the eastern United States in recent weeks have experienced what are known as frost quakes. 

The Associated Press explains what these things are: 

"These noises are known as frost quake for cryoseisms, a cold-weather phenomenon that occurs when rain or melted snow in the ground quickly freezes, expanding as it solidifies, when temperatures rapidly fall below freezing. As the ice expands, pressure builds around the surrounding soil, causing it to crash  and make booming sounds and light shaking." 

Frost quakes can damage water mains due the shifting ground. However, most winter water main breaks come because frost shifts the ground without shaking it or making noise. Or water freezes in the water main itself, causing it to burst. 

More ominously, on extremely rare occasions, shifts in the ground can cause gas leaks.

However, frost quakes almost never cause appreciable structural damage, but there was recently such a case.  

 A frost quake in st. Claire Shores, Michigan  was strong enough to cause damage. At a 7-11 store on 11 Mile Road in St. Claire Shores, surveillance video shows a ridge suddenly rising across the floor in the middle of the shop.  An eight-foot long section of floor tile inside the store was destroyed. 

When the deep cold of this winter hit states around the Ohio River Valley, frost quakes were heard and felt across much of  Tennessee and Kentucky.  It usually doesn't get cold enough long enough there to get frost quakes, but this year was different. 

Frost quakes have also been reported in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and other states this winter.

With a somewhat warmer weather pattern settling in now, more frost quakes are gotten less and less likely, unless you're in the relatively chilly air up near the Canadian border. 

A Rather Unpredictable Weather Week Coming Up For Vermont

This forecast weather map for this coming Wednesday
morning looks a bit frightening, with a sprawling storm
covering most of the U.S. Looks are deceiving, at least
for us in Vermont. Some precipitation might 
fall early in the week, but it's not definite, and if
we do get any, we don't yet know what kind.

 This is going to be one of those weeks where meteorologists might be tempted to thrown up their hands and say "You figure it out. "   

It's not that they're unprofessional or would actually do that,. But all the moving parts in the atmosphere are so jumbled that it's hard to tease out what we're going to get.

Overall, the best guess is it will be mostly relatively mild, pretty unsettled, but otherwise a pretty iffy weather week.   The forecast through about Tuesday is relatively easy, but after that, it's basically a flip of a coin

But, let's get into it the best we can.

In case you missed it, Burlington broke its long streak of subfreezing days on Saturday. After 22 days of staying below 32 degrees, the temperature briefly poked up to a pleasant 35. 

TODAY

It won't be quite as warm today. As expected, a weak cold front passed through most of Vermont overnight. It was in the single numbers at dawn in the north, with cold spots like Lake Eden getting s cold s 8 below. In the far south, the cold front never really arrived, so it stayed in the low 20s in places like Bennington.  

Temperatures will tend to even out statewide today. Highs will be in the 20s, with some low 30s south. Sun will fade behind some clouds, but it will be gorgeous day for skiing or other winter sports. Today's a great day to pretend to be winning gold at the Winter Olympics. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

A weak disturbance should come in tonight to throw a handful of snowflakes at us overnight. You might find maybe a dusting or a half inch of powder on your car in the morning.

The day itself will likely be the hottest it's been since mid-January. That's not saying much, since it'll only get into the mid-30s for most of us. Another weak disturbance - ever so slightly stronger than tonight's - will probably deposit a dusting to maybe a full inch of snow in spots on a balmy Monday night. 

I say balmy because lows will be in the 20s to around 30. 

Tuesday will still be warm with highs in the 30s to around 40.  One note or caution:  I see a lot of ice dams on many roofs. Some of those will let go over the next few days. In many villages and somewhat more urban areas around Vermont, people park their cars in the narrow spaces between houses. 

You might not want to do that as heavy chunks of ice could fall. Also, if you can, try not to walk under these frozen Swords of Damocles. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

Forecast weather maps for Wednesday morning look ominous. They show a strong, sprawling storm covering the entire middle of the U.S. and the Rocky Mountains.  Since storms tend to head east, you'd think we in Vermont were in for something really nasty. 

But it's not as scary as it looks. High pressure over northern and central Quebec will tend to shear this storm apart. Here's where we get into the "we have no idea what's going on" part of the forecast.'

Will that Quebec high pressure shunt the whole thing to our south?  Or will the storm come through, albeit in weakened fashion.  Will another storm follow on Friday and Saturday? If so, rain or snow or mix?

What will the temperatures be like? We know Vermont will be in part of the battle zone between warm from the south, and Arctic air to the north. Will frigid winter weather reassert itself? Or will we have more thawing? Maybe something in the middle, mild for February but not exactly warm?. 

All I can is stay tuned to this bat channel for answers we hope will appear within the next day or two.  

Burlington, Vermont Ends Its Longest Freeze In 11 Years

The temperature in the Champlain Valley of Vermont
briefly went barely above freezing, ending a 22-day
streak of continuous readings of under 32 degrees.
It was the longest such streak in 11 years. However,
me and Henry the Weather Dog won't be enjoying
the sunshine on our bench anytime soon. 

 As of 4 p.m. this pleasant Saturday afternoon in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature had risen to 34 degrees. 

That meant a 22-day long streak of below freezing temperatures had ended. This was the longest time Burlington spent below 32 degrees since a 27 day long streak of subfreezing weather ended on February 22, 2015.

Today's mild weather came just one day after Lake Champlain was declared frozen over for the first time since March, 2019. 

This year's streak of cold, freezing days didn't even make the top 10 for longest such stretch. Tenth place is occupied by there years that had 29 days in a row at or under 32 degrees.

The longest stretch of such nippy air ran 51 days from December 22 1976 to February 10, 1977.

It looks like the long subzero streaks are still going on in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, as preliminary data shows they didn't get above 32 this afternoon. 

Today's thaw, if you can call it that, will seem like a distant memory by tomorrow morning. That tiny little swirl of frigid air diving into Maine today is also driving  a shot of pretty cold air into Vermont tonight. 

By dawn tomorrow, temperatures will be just a few degrees above zero or the most parts, with colder valleys below zero once again. Tomorrow will be nice, but a little cooler than today with highs in the mid-20s.

More thawing - at least in the valleys - is due Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 30s, except some low 40s Tuesday. 

Don't worry, although it's theoretically possible to have another 22 days of subfreezing weather this year, the chances of it happening are diminishing fast. Normal temperatures have begun their slow ascent as spring nears. That'll make it increasingly hard for afternoons to stay under 32 degrees 

I'll have an updated Vermont forecast in tomorrow morning's post 

Worldwide Robust Weather Warnings Would Save Lives

People in the U.S. have easy access to warnings for
dangerous storms, like this weather radio. Many 
places around the world don't have access to
weather warnings, causing needless deaths. 
The UN and other organizations are 
trying to change that. 

 The United States has a lot of the worst weather in the world. Every time you turn around, there's a life-threatening flash flood, tornado, giant hail, hurricane, winter storm, wildfire and storm surge. 

Or, seemingly, all of the above at once. 

Some recent deadly disasters notwithstanding, the United States has some of the lower per capita fatality rates in the world. A lot of the reason for that is our robust warning system.

It's why you see on the news that an entire town has been turned into grim confetti by a tornado, but maybe only one or two residents have died, and everybody else is basically uninjured. 

The reason is because everybody in town got a tornado warning 15 minutes or even a half hour before the storm hit. That warning bought everybody in town time to hunker down in a safer place.  

Many other places in the world don't have the luxury, or actually the necessity of have a robust warning system for severe weather.

Much of the time, the overseas death toll in storms and floods is victims didn't have the information needed to get out of the way of an  impending disaster.

  .As NPR notes:

"One reason for the high death tolls in such disasters is a lack of basic weather warning systems. 

'Early warnings are not an abstraction,' said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a speech last year. 'They give farmers the power to protect their crops and livestock, enable families to evacuate safely and protect entire communities from devastation."

Too many people lack access to weather warnings. 

As Al Jazeera reported in October:

"Nearly half of all countries lack early-warning systems for extreme weather events, leaving millions - especially those in developing nations - vulnerable".

The World Meteorological Organization has said that weather, water and climate-related hazards have killed more than 2 million people in the past 50 years. About 90 percent of those deaths occurred in developing countries. 

As climate change drives storms to new extremes adequate weather warnings are more important than ever. 

TRYING TO HELP

Back in 2022, the United Nations set a goal to extend severe weather warmings to even person on Earth by 2027. The effort would cost $3.1 billion. 

It doesn't look like the UN will reach that goal in time. It never does. But at least the effort is underway. 

One major reason the effort is behind schedule is,  of course, the United States.  Namely, Donald Trump. I swear it seems like the more needless deaths he causes, or at least fails to prevent, the happier he is.  The Trump administration said last month it will no longer participate in the effort. That erases some billions of dollars from the weather warning plan.

Other sources are stepping up to the plate, including thy Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, which have together spend $2.5 billion on weather warning projects, NPR reports. 

 The number of nations using some form of early warning systems for multiple types of severe weather has jumped from 52 to at least 108 over the past decade. However there are still dozens of nations that still don't have any kind of sophisticated warning system for people at risk for storms and floods. 

One success story appears to be Cambodia, notes NPR.

Cambodia is one of the most flood-prone countries in the world. Between 2023 and 2025, agencies affiliated with the UN upgraded the country's flood forecasts and warnings to the tune of $5.8 million. An additional $7.8 million will be spent on this Cambodian warning system over the next few years.

Last November, the water level in the Mekong River in Cambodia reached one its highest levels on record. In the past, this type of flood would kill many people. This time, the people, and their livestock were gone by the time the water started rising. They'd received flood warnings, and were on high ground when the Mekong went over its banks. 

Since they'd made preparations, people living along the Mekong pretty much resumed normal life shortly after the water receded. 

Much of Cambodia's new warning system is pretty basic. Warnings go out on cell phones. But since many people don't have phones, trucks drive back and forth through towns, blaring the warnings from speakers. The speaker also instruct residents to tell anyone else who might not have heard the broadcast about the problem .

The November, 2025 Mekong flood led only to a few casualties.

We in the United States take for granted weather warnings. Sometimes, we even have waves of complaints when tornadoes warnings pre-empt the season finale of "Real Housewives Of Enosburgh Falls" or whatever dumb show is on. 

But the U.S. warning system has saved countless lives. Lives in other countries are worth the same as ours, whether you like that fact or not. So I really don't want to hear that weather warnings as dangerous storms appear are just "too expensive" to deal with 

 

Subtle Signs Of Spring? A Little More Snow Northern Vermont As Temperatures Creep Up To Near Freezing

Even if we get a bit of a thaw early next week, I don't 
think we'll be enjoying the springlike weather
on our back deck. It had also once again started
to snow when I took this pic this morning. 

For a couple days now, I've been watching forecasts of this tiny, but kind of intense upper level low and pool of cold air diving south from eastern Quebec toward Maine. 

This weird little thing that makes me think of a bowling ball on weather maps doesn't have much moisture, so it's not an immense storm. But it will probably bring snow squalls, gusty winds and generally unpleasantness to northern Maine. 

For us in Vermont, we're still going to  have a splendid weekend for outdoor winter sports with comfortable temperatures and plenty of snow on the ground.

But the odd thing in Maine will bring us some subtle twists and turns you might or might not notice. But they're fascinating for odd weather geeks like me.

Our Maine bowling ball helped create a sort of pseudo warm front heading toward us in Vermont.  It's a very mini version of this past Tuesday, when a burst of mild air coming at us from the west dumped a quick several inches of snow on Vermont. 

Sorry, snow lovers, this time, there's no quick fresh big dump of powder today.   Snow haters are bummed, too, since this set up is giving parts of northern and central Vermont some unexpected light snow this morning.  

Forecasts from last night called for isolated morning flurries today.  But this is  more than that. It was snowing here in St. Albans as I wrote this around 8 a.m, and we'd already piled up  half inch of new snow.

It turns out some of us, but not everyone in northern Vermont might get an inch of snow out of this before it heads out to give us a partly sunny afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a report or two of two inches of fluff in the northern Green Mountains. 

WARMER AFTERNOON?

Since I'm calling this a mini-warm front, parts of the Champlain Valley and the valley floors of southern Vermont might get a degree or two warmer today than originally forecast. It won't be enough for you to really notice, except that it could end a streak of weather we haven't seen in 11 years.   

The National Weather Service is going for a high today of 33 degrees in Burlington. If that happens, it'll end a string of 22 consecutive below freezing days.  That would be the longest streak since 2015 and one of the 20 top longest periods on record where the temperatures stayed at or below 32 degrees. 

That tiny little bowling ball of cold air spinning southward across Maine will send a mini-cold front through Vermont later today and this evening.   That will get us back, down into the single digits tonight, with more below zero readings in the cold spots.

It also means we'll be a touch cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 20s

SIGNS OF SPRING?

If that lineup of consecutive subfreezing days doesn't end today, it will come to a close Monday with a high in the upper 30s.  Tuesday, the warmth peaks afternoon highs get to within a few degrees of 40 under partly to mostly cloudy skies. 

After the subzero cold of the start of this month, Tuesday will feel like a beach day in June. In any event, it will be the hottest day since January 14. 

We also have some other signs of spring that aren't quite as pleasant. 

The first doesn't involve us in Vermont but it's worth noting. As winter wanes, you start getting surges of warm, humid air coming off the Gulf of Mexico and enveloping the Gulf Coast states starting in mid-February or so. Meanwhile, winter continues to sent cold fronts southward.

The result is the first outbreaks of big thunderstorms and tornadoes. The severe weather season is staring. Right on schedule, severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes are in the forecast along the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow. 

Another sign of spring as weather forecasting, always dicey as we well know, gets trickier.  The atmosphere kind of wants to flip into a more springlike pattern, but the forces of winter don't want to give up. 

Right now we're in that sort of dilemma. Warm air wants to come up toward us in New England later in the week. But Arctic cold still has its sights on us. We're in a classic battleground. 

As for what kind of weather we'll get in the second half of the week, I'm just throwing my hands up at this point. A couple storms might want to try to make a run at us. But the storms could  fade before they get here. Or not fade, leaving us the question of whether we get snow or a mix. And if so, how much. 

If you have outdoor plans for the second half of next week, sorry, I can't help you. At least not yet. 

Lake Champlain Has Officially Frozen Over

Satellite view of Lake Champlain today show
no sign of open water on the lake today, so
it has been officially declared frozen over 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon officially declared Lake Champlain frozen over. 

It's the first time that's happened since March 9, 2019.

The National Weather Service notes that "completely iced over" is subjective. There might still be some cracks and little fissures or holes out there that satellites, drones and airplanes didn't or can't notice.

I personally thought the lake would freeze last weekend or Monday during a cold wave that sent temperature into the upper single numbers and teens below zero.  

But there was probably a bit too much wind stirring the small areas of open water to make the lake freeze.

Overnight and early this morning, we had clear, calm weather. The temperature at Burlington reached a low of 1 above around dawn today. That weather was the charm. 

Our February 13 Lake Champlain freeze date this year is about the time it usually gets iced over. At least in the years it does freeze,

Usually, in January it hasn't been cold enough long enough for a frozen lake. In March, an increased chance of a thaw or just a higher, warmer sun angle can prevent the lake from freezing.

But there's always exceptions. The earliest freeze over was on January 8 1868 and the latest was on March 26, 1894.

I - and pretty much everybody else - are suspicious of those dates. Nobody had planes, drones or satellites back in the 19th century. So there was probably some open water way out there on both those early and late dates.  It's just nobody could see them from shore. 

No lake ice is completely safe. The broad lake is particularly risky. There's certainly areas of thin ice, cracks or weak areas cause by pressure building between areas of ice. So please don't walk from Burlington to Plattsburgh, please.  

That said, Lake Champlain has had little ice on it in recent years, so it is nice to go out onto relatively safe areas of ice to check out what has really become another world. 

In at least part due to climate change, Lake Champlain freeze overs have become much less likely. Since 2000, the lake has only frozen over nine times. In the mid 20th century, in the thirty years between 1940 and 1969, the lake froze over 20 times. 

 Lake Champlain might not stay completely frozen for long. By early next week, thawing and increasing winds could poke holes in the ice.  

Spain Floods After Incredible Rains: 78 Inches In Just 20 Days

Lately, there always seems to be water underfoot in
Spain. Relentless storms have dumped feet of 
water on Spain this winter. 

 Climate change is making big rainfalls even bigger, but what happened in Spain recently is just insane. 

As the Washington Post reported on February 10:

"In the mountainous southwestern part of the country, Grazalema - in the Andalusia region - has recorded over 90 inches of rain so far this year, including 78 inches in just the last 20 days alone.

Meteorologist Nahel Belherze called it a 'hydrologically absurd' amount. It is more than what would typically fall in an entire year at that location."

The 6.5 feet of rain in 20 days included about 15 inches that fell in just one day. 

As the Washington Post explains ,  the root cause of the flooding and torrential rains was the same polar vortex disruption that drove the eastern United States into the deep freeze in the second half of January and the beginning to February.

Large, relatively warm high pressure parked itself over and near Greenland. That shoves colder air and active storm tracks further south than usual. 

In Spain's case,  a straight shot of super wet air from the Caribbean kept blasting into Spain and Portugal.

In Portugal, this atmospheric river caused a bunch of trouble there, too. Part of the main north/south highway through Portugal was closed when a section of it collapsed due to the flooding. 

The geology at and near where that 78 inches of rain fell is a bit weird.  The limestone soils have pockets in them where moisture collects. If there's too much water, it spills out in spots where there is less resistance, so springs and brooks just tend to appear out of nowhere. 

Video shows clear water coursing down streets, pouring out of homes and gushing out of sidewalks. Torrents of white water poured down terraced walkways between historic buildings. 

Portugal and Spain have been battered by eight storms in quick succession. A new storm hit today.   This time, heavy rain, thunder, snow and gales caused more widespread infrastructure and crop damage. This latest storm forced the evacuation of thousands of people,. 

A woman in Barcelona was killed when part of a warehouse roof blew off and hit her. 

Crop damage includes the loss of two million kilos of asparagus. The olive harvest in Spain has also fallen way behind schedule due to the rough weather. 

Spain and Portugal have always experienced atmospheric rivers, but this winter's have been unprecedented. 

Spain has also been tormented by a series of deadly floods in recent years. Among the worst was a flash flood in Valencia back in October, 2024 that killed more than 200 people. These storms are consistent with climate change, since a warming atmosphere can hold more water than in the past. Sometimes, this extra atmospheric moisture in intense, dangerous storms. 

Video: Water cascades through historic neighborhoods. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

 

 

Has This Been A Tough Vermont Winter Or Have We Turned Into Wimps. I Dive Into The Stats For An Answer

Another clear, cold dawn over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. Looking at the stats, this winter has been
fairly rough in Vermont by 21st century standards.
But compared to the winters of over the past 
century or more, this one is running in
the middle of the pack. 

 Having just endured a long cold spell in what seems like a really long winter here in Vermont, we have to ask the question:  

Has this been a really tough winter so far or have we all become a bunch of wimps? Looking at the stats so far this season, the answer is kind of mixed .

It hasn't been particularly bad by historical standards, but it has been on the rough side compared to most winters over the past quarter century. 

First of all, this winter will not end up being anywhere near the coldest or snowiest on record. Temperatures are running cooler than average, but not wildly so. Snowfall has generally been near to a little above normal

It's the persistence of the winter chill that's been the real thing. . 

Let's look under the hood at the stats, at least as measured in Burlington, for a sense of how bad or good this winter has been.  

Subzero Nights

Through Thursday, there had been 14 days this in Burlington that got to zero or below. If no more occur, it will be the most since 2022. So not extreme.

Chances are it will get below zero again, but if not, the number of nights below zero isn't unusual, since 82 of the past 125 winters had more than 14 such nights. 

So no biggie. Especially since at least 23 winters in Burlington have had at least 30 subzero nights.  The notorious winter of 1933-34 had 45 such nights. We won't break that record! Only two winters have had no below zero weather.  Both were in the past 25 years, with the most recent one in 2023-24.

Consecutive Freezing Days

The number of consecutive days below freezing is a little more interesting. Assuming weather forecasts are correct, we'll end up with 23 subfreezing days in a row until it gets well into the 30s on Monday. The last time there were more than that was in January and February 2015, with a string of 27 of 'em 

We won't get into the top ten list of longest subfreezing streaks as #10 has 29 such days.  At least we'd better not! Than record is held by the winter of 1976-77, when Burlington endured 51 consecutive days at or below 32 degrees.

Still, this cold streak is fairly rare: The National Weather Service in South Burlington says only 20 out of the past 141 winters have had spells of continuous subfreezing weather that has lasted this long.

Total Number of Days Under 32 

What about the total number of days that never got above freezing this winter? I looked at the past 100 years of winters in Burlington and found the following:

So far, through Thursday, we've had 50 days that never got above freezing. There will be several, perhaps many more such days before spring arrives.  If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say we'll have at least another 15 days or so this winter that stay below the freezing point  But you never know.

If by some miracle every day from now manages to thaw, we've still surpassed 16 winters in total number of subfreezing days.  

We've been spoiled by recent warm winters. All of the top eight winters with the least amount of subfreezing days have occurred since 2001-02. In the winter of 2011-12, remarkably only 24 days didn't thaw. 

Also, there's absolutely no way this winter will make it to the most subfreezing days in a single winter. That honor goes to another notorious winter, which was 1969-70, with 93 days at or under 32 degrees.

Storminess is a little more subjective, but I'll take a crack at it. 

Snowfall

We aren't nearly done with snow yet, as it usually snows through March and into April. In fact, big snowstorms tend to come later in the winter. Nine of Burlington's 20 biggest snowstorms have occurred on or after Valentine's Day.  

 If in some fantasy world  that won't happen we get absolutely no more snow this winter, Burlington would end the season with 64.3 inches. 

That would mean 38 winters in the past 123 years would still have less snow than this winter. Only 11 winters have had more than 100 inches of snow. I highly doubt this winter will become the 12th on that list, but who knows? Miracles could happen I suppose.

Individual storms this winter have also voided threatening record territory.. The largest snowstorm this winter in Burlington dumped 15.6 inches of snow on January 25-26  That really didn't come close to cracking the top 20 list of greatest snowstorms. 

The greatest snow depth on record in Burlington is 33 inches. So far this winter, there's never been more than a foot of snow covering the landscape.

One more thing: I haven't seen confirmation yet, but I'm betting Lake Champlain has entirely frozen over for the first time since March 2019.

Bottom Line

By 21st century, climate changed standards, this winter is indeed on the rough side, but it likely won't be  considered the worst of the bunch. I'd arguably give a nod to the winter of 2014-15 as the most intense in the past 25 years.  

Compared to the standards of the past 100 to 125 years or so, this winter so far is probably in the middle of the pack in the severity ratings. Late February and March can give us some wild extremes  one way or the other, so the story of winter 2025-26 is by no means written yet.  

Trump To U.S And World Citizens: Drop Dead. Fossil Fuel Billionaires MUST Be Protected

EPA is dropping a 17-year old "endangerment finding"
that forms the basis of fossil fuel regulations in
the United States. Ultimately, it's a stupid and
dangerous move.

The Trump administration on Thursday got rid of a key Environmental Protection Agency rule that forms the basis for virtually all federal regulations related to climate change. 

The change won't just affect the Trump administration. His move will make it harder for future administrations to adopt climate rules and regs. I've seen getting rid of the so-called EPA "endangerment finding" described as removing a load bearing pillar of climate regulations.

Per the Washington Post:

"Nearly 17 years after the the Environment Protection Agency declared that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threaten the public's health and welfare, the agency on Thursday rescinded the landmark legal opinion underpinning a wave of federal policies aimed at climate change. 

The agency issued its 'endangerment finding' in 2009, concluding that the government had a sound legal basis to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In scrapping the policy this week, the EPA will seek to erase limits on emissions from cars power plants, and other industries that release the vast majority of the nations planet-warming pollution".

Trump has repeated declared change a hoax, most likely because it would help fossil fuel oligarchs, who in turn will feel obligated to help him.

"This is a big deal," EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said Thursday, which is the only thing I would agree with him on in this saga. 

At first, the main effect today's actions will have is to get rid of greenhouse emission standards on trucks and cars. 

But if the end of the endangerment finding holds up in court, no future EPA will be able to regulate CO2 emissions,  noted the Washington Post article. 

Environmental groups are up in arms, as you might imagine. 

One of the more succinct explanations of the ultimate result of what happened today came from Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological and Diversity's Safe Climate Transport Campaign: 

"American families will suffer long-term harms so that giant auto and oil companies can pocket short-term profits."

Alex Witt of Climate Power was even more blunt: "This decision makes it abundantly clear that Trump is willing to make our families sicker and less safe, all to benefit a few billionaire polluters"

 For his part, Zeldin, the EPA administrator sarcastically called the 17-year old rule he's trying to get rid of the "holy grail of the climate change religion.' 

This decision will cost lives as it will hinder the worldwide battle against climate change. But then, the Trump administration thinks little of lives of people like you and me. 

Trump's administration has cut back on the National Weather Service's ability to forecast and monitor the weather. This at a time when climate change is generally making dangerous weather more complex and harder to predict.  The NWS cutbacks would have been worse if not for rare bipartisan efforts to keep more meteorologists on the job

At the behest of Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem, who also controls the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is doggedly working to cut back on FEMA disaster aid. So when those storms -  often climate related - hit, you're on your own if your house washed or blew away. 

 We haven't heard the last of this issue, though. I guarantee lawsuits that would attempt to restore the endangerment finding. It will probably make its way all the way up to the Supreme Court. The court is staked with Trump stooges, though, so despite an expected long battle, I'm not super optimistic here.

"This is going to be an ongoing struggle between rule of law and a corrupt fossil fuel industry that wants to be unbridled," said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, (D-RI). 

Is Climate Change Shifting Where Dangerous Ice Storms Set Up?

Lewis County, Tennessee after the late January ice storm
Research suggests that climate change might be making
ice storms more common in the South, but more research
is needed to confirm that. Photo from Tennessee 
Valley Weather/Facebook

Are ice storms moving to different and potentially more dangerous places? 

Some scientists are beginning to think so, and that could lead to more frozen disasters like the one that blasted Mississippi, Tennessee and other southern states in late January

 Drawing on long term records, computer modeling and new measurement, scientists in Texas concluded that a warming world isn't making freezing rain go away. It's just changing where it falls and when in the winter it occurs. "

Zong-Liang Yang, an earth systems scientist the University of Texas at Austin and postdoctoral researcher Chenxi Hu looked into this. According to science.org:

"To see how these changes might be playing out in the ground, Yang and Hu turned to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Storm Events Database, which compiles weather phenomena reported by individuals and vetted by the National Weather Service. 

When the researchers analyzed county-level  records from 1996 to 2025, they saw an emerging trend: More events along a band from eastern Texas to western Pennsylvania, as well as along the Appalachian Mountains, where low, cold air can get trapped. The timing of freezing ran events also shifted from December to February."

The locations Yang described here almost exactly match the zone affected by the disastrous late January ice storm,. 

Freezing rain is thankfully a bit hard to come by compared to other forms of precipitation. Snow needs to change to rain on the way down. Those raindrops must then encounter subfreezing air just before hitting the ground as liquid, which freezes into a glaze of ice upon impact.

If the cold layer near the ground is too thick, the rain will freeze into sleet, or little balls of ice on the way down. Sleet is a pain in the butt, of course, but at least it doesn't pull down trees and power lines. 

Also, freezing rain is often transitory. It'll hit briefly as an interlude between the time snow goes over to rain as temperatures warm. The warm/cold battle of air masses must more or less stay put to create a dangerous ice storm. 

Not everyone is buying the idea that climate change is shifting the places where ice storms are most likely - at least not yet

Esther Mullens, a climatologist at the University of Florida, told science.org that it still could be just natural variations that move ice storms around, or create trends in ice storms.

In 2025, Mullens looked at ice storms over the past 80 years and concluded that natural climate variations might explain the uptick in southern freezing rain storms. She concedes it could be that the jet stream is getting wavier than it used to be. 

A wavier jet stream is more likely to bring Arctic air blasts further south, which could increase the chances of freeing rain. But climatologists are still debating whether climate change is seriously messing with the jet stream like that. 

Still, there is a pretty compelling argument that the warming of the Arctic might be creating a wavier jet stream.  A wavier jet stream is more likely to create the right conditions for freezing rain than a flat west to east upper air flow.  

Another potential effect of climate change is it might affect how heavy the precipitation is. Even with a warmer world, it still very often gets below freezing in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere during the winter. 

A warmer world, though, is a wetter world.  A hotter atmosphere can hold more water that a cooler one. Storms like the one that hit in January draw moisture from warmer places like the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean.  That moisture slams into the cold air further north to fall as snow, sleet, freezing rain or a combination of all three.

Since the January storm was wetter than it would have been before climate change began in earnest, it was probably able to dump more ice and snow on the eastern U.S. that the same storm would have a generation or two ago.

The heavier the freezing rain, the more weight you get on trees and power lines. Snow in some storms might be deeper than it otherwise might be. We have anecdotal evidence of that right her in Vermont.Burlington's weather data goes all the way back to the late 1880s. Yet, 11 of the city's 20 biggest snowstorms all came in the past quarter century. 

You get the point. Winter storms can be counterintuitively worse in our era of climate change.  

Climate change can even make lake effect snowstorms worse. Lakes would be slower to freeze during warmer winters, so they'd have more opportunity to dump heavy snow downwind of the lakes on the days it does turn cold.

The data the Texas researchers used was based on reports by humans, who sometimes under-report or over-report the amount of ice during a freezing rain event. 

NOAA is working on a new tool that uses radar, rain gauges and an ice model to map freezing rain in real time, science.org says. 

The new tool would make an analysis like what Yang and Hu did more accurate, as we'd have more precise information on how much ice accumulated and where. 

All this shows that climate change isn't just about heat waves and warmer winters. Under the right conditions the warming world can make the rare wintry intrusions much worse. Worse, even, than what your grandparents remember when they walked through feet of snow to and from school, uphill both ways.   

For Parts Of Vermont, The Snow Just Kept On Coming Since Yesterday Morning

Check out the size of the snowbanks along Route 242 up in
Westfield from all the snow that area has gotten
this winter. Web cam grab from is from this morning. 

 As of 8 a.m. it was still snowing here in St. Albans, Vermont.

The main storm had passed 24 hours earlier, but light snow and flurries have been almost continuous since. An additional four inches of snow has fallen atop then 3.8 inches we got from the "main" storm Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The snow that fell since yesterday morning is much, much fluffier than the stuff that we got Tuesday night, so the freshest snow will pack down. But there's now a LOT of snow on the ground here.

Burlington collected 1.7 inches of fluff atop the 3.8 inches of snow (and a little freezing drizzle) from Tuesday and Tuesday night.  

 I don't have many reports quite yet of overnight snowfall elsewhere in Vermont. But judging from the way weather radar looked yesterday, last night and early this morning, I'm guessing the western slopes and summits of the central and northern Green Mountains did really well. 

We're getting some clues from northern Vermont ski areas, who must be ecstatic heading into the President's Day holiday. Jay Peak says they got 8 to 10 inches of snow since yesterday for a two-day total of 16 inches, and a total for the season of 338 inches. Stowe Mountain Resort reports 11 inches in the past 36 hours. 

In both places, it was still snowing a little as of early this morning.

FORECAST

Lots of traffic heading up Route 108, the Mountain Road
heading to Stowe Resort. Great conditions, perfect weather'
and the Presidents Day weekend will surely bring
crowds to the resorts over the next several days 

Very little new snow is coming for the next several days, but this will be an exquisite next few days for winter sports types. 

 The weather pattern has changed to a somewhat warmer one. Yesterday was the first milder than average day in Burlington since January 22. That's almost three weeks ago.

Temperatures will be near average for the next few days, then it will go a little above normal next week. 

No more frostbite and hyperthermia after just 10 minutes outdoors. You will actually be able to enjoy the days playing in the snow. 

That means for today through Sunday daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Tonight will be an exception as it actually looks like it will get pretty cold. A fresh snow pack, mostly clear skies and light winds will bring us down into the single digits, with a few below zero readings in the colder spots. 

Following that, most overnight lows through the weekend will be in the upper single number and teens.

Through yesterday, Burlington was at 20 consecutive days of subfreezing temperatures. It's possible they could finally get barely above freezing Saturday or Sunday, but next Monday looks like the most likely date.

At least the first half of next week should feature above freezing temperatures for most of us. The next chance of any substantial precipitation would come along next Wednesday, but it's too soon to figure out how much and what kind of stuff falls from the sky. 

For those of you who want to hang onto winter, this does not look like it will be any kind of mega-thaw. It'll be awhile yet before we see bare ground. In fact, some (but definitely not all!) computer models want to keep us relatively cool through the end of February. Not frigid like it's been lately, but not exactly springlike, either.  

Peaceful Tropical Vacations Blasted By Wild Hawaiian Storm

So much for peaceful, tropical vacation.

Damage in Hawaii from an intense storm
that hit over the weekend and Monday. Image
from Hawaii News Now/Facebook

Residents and vacationers alike in Hawaii last weekend and early this week endured a storm that packed winds as high as 70 mph and dumped up to 30 inches of rain in at least one spot. 

As AccuWeather tells us:

"Winds gusted over 70 mph on the islands of Maui and Molokai, with gusts over 60 mph on Oahu, Lanai and the Big Island. Rainfall amounts exceeded 30 inches at Laupahoehoe on the Big Island, with 23.22 inches at Waikamoi on Maui." 

Needless to say, there were lots of power outages, along with property damage, torn away roofs  and flooding on the islands.

The storms brought widespread problems to Honolulu. "The Honolulu Fire Department reports that since Saturday, they responded to nearly 100 calls, with 60 of them for downed tres, 22 for blown roofs and 1 for downed power lines," Hawaii News Now reports. 

An apartment building was one of the structures that lost its roof. That incident displaced 12 people. Elsewhere in Honolulu, video captured winds tearing the roof off of a house. Luckily, the house was vacant, so nobody was hurt or displaced.  

In Manoa, near Honolulu, residents said downslope winds were "far, far worse" than a hurricane. In immense, ancient tree in one neighborhood was uprooted.

Elsewhere, a large landslide shut down a major highway on Maui .

A storm south of Hawaii and high pressure north of the islands created an atmospheric squeeze play that created the strong winds. 

The storm began in earnest Sunday and continued Monday. The state of Hawaii basically shut down as schools, the courts, libraries and many businesses closed. The State Legislature opted not to meet on Monday.

Tourists had to hunker down, too as parks camping areas, zoos, botanical gardens and other attractions all shut down. 

The storm had eased by Tuesday so most offices and businesses were reopening.  Breezy, unsettled weather will continue in the Hawaiian islands for at least the next week or so, but no more extremes seem to be in the islands' immediate future. 

Video:

News account of the strong winds and damage on Oahu. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Thump Of Vermont Snow Long Gone, Light Snow To Continue; Arctic Air Disappears

Traffic got backed up on Interstate 89 southbound
in Colchester due probably to lingering snow and slush
on the road causing a slide off or two. More light
snow is expected for the rest of today. 

 Last night's storm is mostly over in Vermont, aside from a bit of last hurrah coming this afternoon and evening. 

But the effects still linger. For instance, I noticed Interstate 89 near Milton was a parking lot for awhile this morning due to slide offs or crashes or, whatever went on along that slushy stretch of highway. 

The traffic trouble along the Interstate looks like it improved by around 8 a.m., but I'm sure there will be trouble here and there.

Traffic cams as of 8 a.m. were showing most roads across Vermont were slushy. Some were still snow covered.  A little light snow was still falling around the state, but that bigger thump of snow from last night is long gone. 

Judging by preliminary reports, it looks like accumulations were in line with expectations. Burlington reports 4.1 inches of snow so far.  My  place here in St. Albans had received 3.8 inches of new snow as of 8 a.m. and it was still snowing lightly.  Most of the few reports that have come across so far seem to be in the three to five inch range.

As I mentioned last evening, the bulk of the snow was driven by a surge of warm air coming from the west in tandem with the storm system itself.  As expected, nobody to my knowledge in Vermont got above freezing, like places western New York did. 

But the warm air aloft over performed a bit. Some areas in eastern New York and Vermont had a little freezing rain or drizzle after the band of heavy snow passed by after 10 p.m. last night. There was a thin ice layer in the snow outside my door when I checked this morning. I also notice Burlington reported a little freezing rain around 2 a.m. today. 

REST OF THE DAY

Any risk of freezing rain or sleet is definitely over. As expected, the original storm that came in from the west is fading or has gone away in favor of a new storm off the Maine coast. Because of this, winds have shifted into the north. 

As we go through the day, that offshore storm will get a little better at pulling moisture from the North Atlantic, southwestward across Quebec, then southward down on northern New England. 

That means the snow will pick up a little in intensity this afternoon and early evening, at least in some parts of Vermont. 

This will deposit another one to three inches of snow in most of northern Vermont, and along the Green Mountains all the way down to the Massachusetts border. The Connecticut River valley and valleys in southwest Vermont will see less than an inch. 

All this is basically a heads up that chances are, you'll hit some snow covered or slippery roads once again on your trip home from work or school today. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND 

The weather actually looks boring for the next several days. Which means it'll be the peak of awesomeness for people who want to go outside and enjoy winter. This might have been the "crown of winter" storm, in the valleys at least. Crown of winter storms are the ones that bring the deepest snow cover of the winter. They usually come shortly before a thaw that starts to reduce the snow pack. 

We're having a decent snow year, especially in the mountains. In the valleys, it's OK, too. Through yesterday, Burlington has had 62 inches of snow for the season, which is 8.5 inches ahead of normal for the date. 

There's lots of snow outside to play in, and for once temperatures will be comfortable enough to enjoy it Daytime highs should be in the mid-20s to low 30s daily Thursday through Sunday. 

That's the sweet spot: Mild enough to not kill yourself from frostbite, chilly enough to keep the snow nice and powdery and sweet. The only bummer is that last night's snow buried some absolutely perfect smooth skating ice on Lake Champlain. 

If you're a winter lover,  all good things must come to an end. If you hate your fuel bills, all bad things must come to an end. 

By that I mean our long stretch of below freezing temperatures will probably concluded on Monday.  Q

As of yesterday, Burlington had been through 19 consecutive days in which the temperature stayed below freezing. That's the longest such spell since a 27 day stretch in January an February, 2015. I'll  have more on this in a separate post. 

It looks like a small pocket of fairly cold air will sweep down from James Bay to somewhere near Maine by early Sunday morning. We'll be on the western edge of that, so Vermont will actually just have some average February weather that day with highs in the 20s to near 30.

But that's OK, because that pocket of cold air will kick off a new storm that will hit Canada's Atlantic provinces. 

Meanwhile, another storm will be developing Sunday in the southeast U.S.  Earlier this week, we thought that storm might come up the coast to give us another slap of snow or mixed precipitation. 

It turns out that newer  Canadian storm will probably deflect that southeast U.S. storm to our south.  We originally thought that southern storm might spread some snow or ice our way Sunday and Monday. Now, it tentatively looks like we're in the clear with that one.  We'll keep you posted if there are any changes, but for now, don't worry about it.

It's a little too soon to know how far above freezing it'll get next week and how long that would last.  Early guesses are the next shot at any substantial precipitation after day won't come along until at least the middle of next week.