Miraculously, No Deaths So Far In Epic New York Flooding

Screen grab from a news video showing Park Slope,
Brooklyn under water Friday. 

 Social media was blasting with incredible videos Friday of streets in and around New York City deep under water, with cars floating around, waterfalls pouring into basements and subways stations in one of the worst floods in the region's history. 

Seven to nine  inches of rain fell in some of the hardest hit areas in Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau County, Long Island, which is adjacent to Queens. 

So far, I've heard of no deaths from this storm. Which is awesome, since the storm hit such a populated area.  A populated area, by the way, that has lots of basement apartments. Those are especially dangerous in severe flash floods. 

In just slightly worse flooding with Hurricane Ida in 2021, when some 40 people died in and around New York City. 

This time, according to the Washington Post, people in six basement apartments were rescued, along with numerous motorist in inundated cars and trucks.  

This storm is being compared to Ida, but the worst of it covered a smaller area than that earlier storm from 2021. Drenching rains and some flooding hit from New Jersey to Massachusetts Friday. But the heaviest rain fell in a narrow band through eastern New York City, parts of the lower Hudson Valley and on into Fairfield County, Connecticut.

Here's why: A wet storm was off the coast. The storm wasn't tropical, but part of its energy came from the remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia, which dissipated last week off the coast. A weather front of sort, called an inverted trough, for much of the day extended northwestward from the storm through eastern New York City and western Long Island. 

Winds on the Atlantic Ocean side of this line roared in from the southeast, carrying boatloads of moisture. Winds on the west side of this trough came from the southwest, That meant lots of air collided along this sort of semi-weather front. 

When air converges like this, it has nowhere to go but up.  If you have lots of rising air and a ton of moisture in the air, all that moisture condenses into raindrops as the air rises. So you get the narrow band of torrential rains you saw Friday. 

You can see the variability of the rain due to this setup.  JFK Airport in Queens saw 8.65 inches of rain, its wettest day on record.  Central Park, just 16 miles to the northwest, had a very impressive but still much less 5.8 inches. Staten Island only had two to three inches of rain. 

Climate change is making extreme rains like Friday's downpours more likely.  The New York City drainage system, like in many cities, is designed for 20th century conditions, when such downpours were less likely. 

"The sad reality is our climate is changing faster than our infrastructure can respond," said Rohit Aggarwala, New York City's chief climate officer, according to the Washington Post.

You can see a trend: Including Friday, in Central Park, where records go back to around 1870,  four of the top seven wettest days on record have occurred since 2007.

Friday's storm is departing. Other than some minor coastal flooding from a combination of gusty east winds,  a seasonal King Tide, combined with higher sea levels from climate change, it's pretty much over.

The storm, as we know, had practically no effect in Vermont, thank goodness. It produced a rather rainy, dark and dank day in southern Vermont. Bennington picked up nearly a half inch of rain, and sprinkles reached as far north as Montpelier. 

Burlington had no rain, its 10th day in a row free of precipitation. No rain is expected at least through Wednesday.  

 

Major Flood In NYC; Storm Brings Brief Interruption To Long Dry Spell In Southern Vermont, North Stays Dry

A small area of the Northeast, especially in
red on this map, is subject to flash flooding
today. Unfortunately, it's in the most
densely populated area of the nation, so
the flooding effects will be amplified. 

 UPDATE 12:30 PM FRIDAY

That "weird" storm I described this morning, (see previous discussion below) is really over-performing and causing havoc in the New York City region.

News reports and social media show widespread, serious flooding in that area.  Traffic is at a standstill, and probably thousands of buildings by now have suffered flood damage. 

Terminal A at LaGuardia Airport at last report was entirely flooded and closed. 

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have declared a state of emergency for the city.

Some areas around Brooklyn and Queens had received up to seven inches of rain this morning.  Another few inches seem likely this afternoon, which will worsen the already extreme flooding. 

Central Park received just a tad under two inches of rain in just one hour this morning. 

The flash flooding is extending up the Hudson River Valley and into New Jersey and Connecticut. 

Even though not a huge area of the nation is affected, the flood zone is so densely populated that I expect this will be yet another $1 billion plus weather disaster for the U.S.

Since the storm is overperforming, it's thrown rain as far north as central Vermont.  The rain is light and won't cause any issues here. The moisture is running into a buzzsaw of very dry air from Quebec. Recent radar trends show the northward progress of the rain stopping a little north of Route 4 because of that dry air. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A weird storm is affecting parts of the Northeast, and much like Tropical Storm Ophelia last week, we in Vermont will stay on its northern fringes.  

This new storm is not a tropical system, but it is a wet one.  The bullseye is the New York City area and surrounding areas, including much of Connecticut and New Jersey. 

Already, flash flood warnings were up early this morning in parts of the NYC metro area, and that will continue much of the day. Some areas could get up to five inches of rain. 

Only a relatively small area is under the gun for flash flooding today, but it happens to be pretty much the most populated area of the nation. So the impacts will be pretty major. 

Some of the moisture from this storm is extending into Vermont. It will make for a rainy day in the two southernmost counties of the state. 

But it will just be a rather cloudy day north of Route 4. There could be a brief sprinkle or two as far north as Montpelier and Burlington, but it won't be enough to stop outdoor activity

So this is an interruption to our long stretch of sunny weather, but won't end this long rain-free period north of Route 2.

The clouds and rain today in places like Bennington and Brattleboro will make for a much cooler day than we've had. Highs down there will probably barely make it to 60 degrees. The further north you go, the warmer it will get.  Low elevations near the Canadian border have a good shot at 70 degrees again today. 

The big high pressure system that had stalled over Quebec and given us our long stretch of sunny, hazy, mild weather will actually strengthen after the storm off the coast departs. It will also turn warmer.  

In the opening days of October next week, highs on some days could reach 80 degrees. That's pretty close to record highs this time of year, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. Like on many days this past week, the sky will look hazy at times due to that ever-present smoke from Canadian wildfires. 

Running Out Of Atlantic Tropical Storm Names Again?

Hurricane Lee off the U.S. East Coast on Sept. 14.
There's been a near record number of tropical
storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. 

 It might not seem it, but it's been an incredibly busy tropical Atlantic hurricane season so far. 

At the moment, Tropical Storm Phillippe is wandering aimlessly in the central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rina also formed way out there the other day. 

Another trailing system has a decent shot at building into a tropical storm.  The hurricane season lasts through November. And there's now only four names left on the 2023 hurricane or tropical storm list: Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney. 

It doesn't seem like it's been that busy because most storms have mercifully not made landfall.  So far, only Hurricanes Idalia and Lee, and Tropical Storm Ophelia have caused much trouble in the United States. Yeah, they were all bad, but it could have been a lot worse. 

Most tropical storms and hurricanes have stayed out over water. Many of them moved north into colder water and petered out without causing any harm. 

If we run out of hurricane names this year, it will be third time that's happened. 

The first time the Atlantic Ocean basin ran out of names was the horrid season of 2005. That's the year that brought us the huge disasters Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, along with other destructive land falling hurricanes in the United States. 

In 2005, they resorted to using Greek names to deal with the last six tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.

Then came 2020 with a total of 30 named storms.  The National Hurricane Center ran through their name list early that season, resorting to the last of the names on the official list with Tropical Storm Wilfred on September 17, barely past the halfway point of the hurricane season. 

The rest of the 2020 season featured a confusing list of Greek named storms, including Delta, Zeta, Eta and Theta.

The whole point of naming tropical storms and hurricanes is to avoid public confusion. If two storms with distinct names happen at the same time, like this year's Hurricane Lee and Margo, it's easy to tell which one is which, and which hurricane you should worry about, and which one you can safely ignore. 

To solve the Greek letter problem if there are too many hurricanes and tropical storms, the World Meteorological has come up with a "B" list of sorts, names to use in the event we run out. So, if we get past Whitney in the Atlantic this year, we'll then go with Adria, Braylen, Caridad etc.   

It's a little odd that there have been so many tropical storms this year.  We're now in an El Nino pattern, which tends to squelch Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes due to strong upper level winds.

Those winds have materialized due to El Nino. But the Atlantic Ocean is at record warm levels, which is jet fuel for wannabe tropical storms. So, tropical storms are forming left and right. The strong upper level winds are keeping many of these storms, like the current Phillippe and Rina on the weak side, so I guess we can be happy for that. 

 

One Year After Hurricane Ian, Southwest Florida Still Struggling Physically, Mentally

Satellite view of catastrophic Hurricane Ian about to 
make landfall in southwest Florida one year ago today. 

 One year ago today, on September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian, just shy of Category 5 strength, slammed into the area around Fort Myers Beach, Florida, killing at least 150 people and becoming the second most expensive United States weather disaster on record. 

I don't mark the anniversary of every hurricane, but Ian was such a monster that I can't avoid it. Thankfully, so far this year, we haven't had a repeat of Ian.  Hurricane Idalia on August 31 in northern Florida was really, really bad, but not at all in the same league as Ian. 

It was the fourth strongest hurricane on record to hit Florida. Two of the  top three hurricanes hit well before the extensive coastal development in Florida ever hit. 

Hurricane Andrew was the most recent of the big three, hitting in 1992. Andrew was incredibly devastating, but the worst of it barely missed super heavy populated Miami. Instead, it destroyed the town of Homestead, Florida, which had a population of 30,000, not hundreds of thousands, like southwestern Florida when Ian hit. 

Recovery has gone in fits and starts, and it will take years before places like Fort Myers Beach, Captiva, Sanibel Island and Pine Island. People whose homes were wrecked are still fighting and in some cases suing insurance companies. 

At least 90 percent of the buildings in Fort Myers Beach were damaged or destroyed. 

Hurricane Ian has of course faded from the headlines, except on this anniversary date. More recent mega-disasters, like the wildfires in Maui last month and the catastrophic floods in Vermont in July, have since came and gone from the headlines

In the months and years after a major disaster, the victims are largely forgotten, but they're still struggling. Fox 13 news in Tampa Bay reported this example, which I think is pretty representative of what people in the Ian region are going through: 

"'My house is still uninhabitable. It has even yet to start repairs because my insurance company won't approve it at all and FEMA did very little to help me. I'm paying an exorbitant amount of rent just to survive. I've lost a year of equity in my home. I'm barely making it. I could be homeless in the future,' said South Venice resident Carrie Smith."

Yes, businesses are gradually reopening, and many residents are moving back into newly repaired homes. But the pace of recovery from disasters like this is glacial. 

This is devastating for mental health. The Tampa Bay Times reports six suicides in the aftermath of Ian. The newspaper also says experts expect more suicides as victims hit one dead end after another, prevent them from moving on from the hurricane. 

I guess this is the most important lesson to take away after a big weather calamities. Let's face it, after a disaster, the people and corporations and governments that are supposed to help serious often let victims down. 

Mental health is a big, scary issue after a disaster. As worrying as the actual physical work of pulling your life back together again. Please, if you know somebody struggling after Vermont's flood this summer, try to help and support them as much as you can. 

Climate change is making these huge disasters more likely and more frequent. Climate change is not only a physical, global and development crisis. It's also a global mental health crisis. 

 

Biden Proposed Civilian Climate Corp To Create Jobs, Fight Climate Change. Is It Big Enough?

President Joe Biden is creating a Civilian Climate Corp,
modeled on the Civilian Conservation Corps in the 
1930s.  Will it be as successful as that 
Great Depression-era project?

 When my dad was alive, he told me stories about the Civilian Conservation Corps or CCC during the 1930s Great Depression, and how the work helped get people back on their feet and gave them a sense of purpose.  

Now, the world is facing another crisis in the form of climate change. President Joe Biden, as you might have heard on the news, is proposing an "American Climate Corp."

According to NPR: 

"The White House on Wednesday unveiled a new climate jobs training program that it says could put 20,000 people to work in its first year on projects like restoring land, improving communities' resilience to natural disasters and deploying clean energy"

The American Climate Corps is intentionally modeled after the Depression-era  CCC. Participants will be paid, and most jobs in the Climate Corps won't require previous experience. The Biden administration is trying to establish new regulations that would make it easier for participants to enter the federal public service after the program, NPR reports. 

So far, the American Climate Corp sounds more low-key than the Civilian Conservation Corps nine decades ago. As History.com describes it: 

"The Civilian Conservation Corps was a work relief program that gave millions of young men employment on environmental projects during the Great Depression. Considered by many to be one of the most successful of Roosevelt's New Deal programs, the CCC planted more than three billion trees and constructed trails and shelters in more than 800 parks nationwide during its nine years of existence.  The CCC helped to shape the modern national and state park systems we enjoy today,"

My dad (who everybody called Red) did not participate in the CCC. But judging from the conversations I had with Red, it helped inspired in him a love and fascination with nature and the environment. That embrace of the natural world was passed down to me and my two sisters. I bet the same thing happened to millions of families, because of the CCC.

It appears the Biden administration has similar lofty goals. NPR again:

"President Biden's climate policy advisor Ali Zaidi told reporters that the program has broader goals beyond addressing the climate crisis. 

'We're opening up pathways to good-paying careers, lifetimes of being involved in the work of making our communities more fair, more sustainable, more resilient,' Zaidi said."

Sure, but this is much smaller than the CCC, despite its obvious benefits.  As the Washington Post reports, the program will hire more than 20,000 young people in skills that fight climate change, such as installing solar panels, restoring coastal wetlands and retrofitting homes to become more energy-efficient. 

Critics are saying Biden's goals for the Climate Corps aren't lofty enough. Lawmakers like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass wanted more funding for the climate corps, So already, we know this won't be as ambitious as the 1930s CCC.

Biden's Climate Corp seems to have several purposed. Yes, fighting climate change is a biggie. It also looks like he's trying to shore up support among younger voters, who tend to be much concerned about climate change than a lot of Boomer wandering around out there. 

It's also a jobs program, as the Biden administration is emphasizing well paying union jobs, which he hopes the Climate Corp will help create. 

When this thing is set up, people will be able to log onto a new web site where they can learn about the program and sign up for training or jobs. 

 

 

There is another key difference, too. While the Conservation Corps primarily employed young, white men, the White House says that the American Climate Corps is designed to attract participants from disadvantaged communities disproportionately impacted by the changing climate.

 

Vermont Likely To See Longest Dry Spell In Six Years. Few Complaints Noted

Blue, slightly hazy skies and wisps of clouds over
Richmond, Vermont Tuesday. It was a continuation
of what will become an oddly lengthy dry spell
in Vermont after way too soggy summer. 

 Yesterday, WPTZ-TV Chief Meteorologist Tyler Jankoski tweeted, (or I guess X'd?) that northern Vermont, at least, might be about to have the longest rain-free period in six years.  

Through yesterday, Burlington had gone through seven consecutive days without a drop of rain. 

Jankoski's forecast, and the predictions from pretty much every other meteorologist in Vermont, indicate no rain for at least seven days, possibly more. Jankoski is guessing Burlington will go 16 days with  no rain.

The last time we had a rain-free spell longer than that was from September 10-29, 2017 when 20 days passed without any rain. (September 2017 as also notable for a four-day period on the 24-27th with temperatures in the low 90s, by far the latest in the season heat wave on record for Burlington).

 True, points from a little south of Burlington all the way down to and past the Massachusetts border had at least a few drops of rain Sunday. 

But almost everyone from Route 2 north has been rain free, and will continue to stay that way. Strong high pressure has stalled, as expected, in Quebec and New England, and doesn't seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere. This high pressure is steering any potential storms away from us.  Any rain storms that come along either pass way to our northwest in Ontario, or south of the United States Mason-Dixon line.

This dry spell looks like it's going to warm up, too.  Temperatures have been pretty close to normal the past few days, but they'll trend warmer into the weekend. It's possible we could touch 80 degrees Sunday   as October opens. 

In fact, long range forecasts call for below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures possibly lasting into mid-October. 

There's a strong El Nino going on now, which affects global weather patterns.  In general, El Ninos tend to create warm, dry autumns here in New England. Not always, but at least more often than not. So I'm guessing El Nino is contributing to this gorgeous weather. 

El Nino could extend the above normal temperatures through much of the winter, too. 

Normally, I'd be a little concerned about going this long without rain. But the summer was so wet soils are still pretty damp.  There's plenty of ground water, so we won't have a drought unless this goes on for months. Which I seriously doubt. 

After the rains and floods we endured this summer, I'm sure a long dry spell will be most welcome for most Vermonters. Including me, I can attest! 

This stalled weather pattern also has had us dealing with wildfire smoke in the air for the past several days. Most of it has been aloft, so air quality hasn't been awful. This state of affairs should continue the next several days, with a relative peak in wildfire smoke today.  But it will probably linger at some level into the weekend. 

If You Need A Small Dose Of Hope, Landmark Maui Banyan Tree, Damaged In Wildfire, Is Sprouting Leaves

New leaves are starting to sprout on a giant banyan tree
on Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. The huge tree was badly damaged
in an August wildfire that destroyed the town. All the leaves
on the trees had been burned off. 

When disaster get extreme, you always want to find some small glimmer of hope. 

Such is the case in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. The city was pretty much destroyed by an August wildfire, which killed at least 97 people. In the center of town is an enormous banyan tree, the largest in the United States. 

The tree was badly burned and scorched in the fire, losing all of its leaves. Many wonder whether it will survive. 

The Washington Post gives us that glimmer of hope: They report it is sprouting a few fresh green leaves. 

As WaPo reports:

"Volunteers have been working toward the banyan's recovery for weeks, carefully tending to its soil, monitoring it for sigs of growth and providing it with what they call 'tree-loving soup' Hawaii Magazine reported earlier this month". 

I guess if you're sick, chicken soup is the cure. If a banyan tree is badly damaged in a fire, it needs nourishing soup, too. The soup for the banyan tree is a concoction of nutrients landscape contractor Chris Imonti created to feed the huge, hurting tree. 

The banyan was planted in 1873 to mark the 50th anniversary old the first Protestant mission in Lahaina. 

I hope to see photos of this Maui treasure fully leafed out in the months ahead.  

A New Climate Change Twist On An Old Fashioned Autumn Weather Pattern

Satellite view from late Sunday afternoon. Clouds from
former Tropical Storm Ophelia reach about as
far as Route 2 in Vermont. Wisps of wildfire 
smoke are visible in the clear air over far northern
Vermont. Much more smoke is visible in Quebec
and that will contribute to haze much of this week.

UPDATE

Quite a bit of haze out there today, Monday, due to wildfire smoke from Canada. This was expected, of course. Air quality in Vermont is not terrible, staying mostly in the "moderate' category, but not considered unhealthy. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Very often in the autumn, these big, sprawling high pressure systems stall near or over the Northeast.

We call these spells Indian Summer, and we're entering such a spell now. Technically, Indian Summer strikes after a good autumn frost. We haven't had one yet, but overall, the weather will fit. 

In the past, especially way back in the mid 20th century, the sunshine with these Indian Summer spells mixed with quite a bit of haze. That's because these huge high pressure systems  featured temperature inversions. 

Inversions are a warm layer in the atmosphere atop a cooler layer near the surface. The inversion acted like a lid, trapping pollutants. 

 The dense morning fog that is characteristic of weather pattern would sometimes become mixed with the pollutants to become smog, and that smog in some of the most industrial places in the U.S. (think Pennsylvania steel country) would never lift. 

In the worst cases, this would get deadly. The most famous case was in Donora, Pennsylvania in October, 1948, when a thick smog choked the town for five days, killing at least 20 people and sickening at least half the town. 

This incident was the spark for the Clean Air Act and other anti-pollution initiatives. 

Decades later, spells of Indian Summer weather across the Northeast were much less hazy as a result. There was less pollution in the air to trap, so skies remained deep blue, the air remained easy to breathe. 

Now, though, it appears the haze is back.  A very typical for the season big high pressure system is now stalled in Quebec, and beginning to nose more and more into New England.   The sky under much of this high, though is not a brilliant blue. Instead, wildfire smoke, which has plagued Canada much of this year, is trapped in this big area of calm, fair conditions.

So, we're going to have a week of gorgeous autumn weather - Indian Summer if you will  - here in Vermont, expect hazy skies during much or even all of this long stretch of mild, pleasant weather this week. 

Unlike Donora in 1948, a lot of this smoke and haze is aloft, and not much is near the surface. That means, thank goodness, the air won't be all that unhealthy to breathe. Most of the tiny particles in the haze that can damage lungs is high overhead. 

I noticed air quality in Vermont Sunday and this morning was in the moderate category. That means it's not exactly fresh and clean out there, but for the vast majority of us, pollutants aren't at any kind of dangerous level. 

Although I admit the following is speculation, I think the haze associated with Indian Summer is back to stay.  Summer and early autumn wildfires in Canada and the western United States will generally be more common and widespread than in the past, due to climate change. 

The smoke will swirl into these big high pressure systems that bring us Indian Summer, and we'll be back to the autumn haze of mid-20th century America. 

Bottom line for us is the clouds and sprinkles that came north from then-Tropical Storm Ophelia over the weekend are slowly eroding and heading out of Vermont. 

It's going to be a full week of mild afternoons with plenty of sun (with some smoke and haze). Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s daily all week, which is a little warmer than normal.  Each morning will feature patchy dense fog, especially in river valleys. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, about average for this time of year. 

We haven't had a stretch of dry weather as long as this since late May and early June. 

 

Looming Government Shutdown Could Threaten Or Delay Vermont Disaster Relief,And Funds For Other States.

Furniture and other items ruined by flood waters sit on the
edge of a road in Cambridge, Vermont after being removed
from a damaged home. A possible government shutdown
could interfere with help from FEMA. 

UPDATE SEPT 27

The Washington Post today came out with some receipts telling us to what extent the expected government shutdown is already affecting FEMA 

payments to disaster areas.

This, even though the shutdown hasn't been started yet. 

According to WaPo, FEMA has already suspended $2.8 billion in grants for disaster recovery across the United States.

They're doing this so that there would still be money available for fresh disasters that could happen during the government shutdown.

The Senate Tuesday night came up with a bipartisan temporary resolution to keep the government running at least into November. But House Republicans want to die on the hill of a government shutdown for reasons.  Given Republican intransigence in the House, who knows how long the shutdown will last? 

It's still hurricane season, and FEMA is afraid another such storm will make a landfall somewhere run the United States over the next month or two.  Hurricanes are notoriously expensive disasters, and they need a pot of money to meet immediate needs after such a storm. That's why they're withholding the $2.8 billion for now that had been earmarked for longer term recovery projects. 

There's no sign any hurricane would hit the United States in the coming few days, but that could change later in October. There's also the chance of wildfires in California, as they often happen in the fall. And you could get a random tornado outbreak or flood in the Midwest or Northeast.

If a disaster were to hit during the government shutdown, a barebones, unpaid FEMA staff would have to deal with it. Such a shortcoming could create preventable deaths in a worst case scenario, but apparently some Congress creatures don't concern themselves with such trifles. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SEPT 24

Among the many, many problems a looming - and exceedingly stupid likely government shut down is an interruption to relief from funding for recent disasters. 

That includes recovery from the huge floods in Vermont this summer. 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has already paused spending on some programs, like many long term recovery projects. 

That's due not to the government shutdown but the fact they agency ran through its budget. 

The pause had already raised fears in Vermont that long term projects to recover from this summer's floods and gird against future ones would be delayed or even canceled. 

That existing shortfall is because the overwhelming pace of disasters this year drained the agency's funds. And fast. The United States has suffered through 23 weather disasters costing $1 billion or more so far this year, the most in any year. And we still have three months to go in 2023. 

Now we have the potential government shutdown to perhaps make everything worse. 

Says CBS News:  

"A FEMA budget that's already tight and impasse in Congress over a bill to keep the government open beyond September 30 - when funding for federal agencies runs out - are threatening to slow aid to communities recovering from natural disasters."

Those communities include Maui, devastated by wildfires in August; northern Florida, smacked by Hurricane Idalia; and of course Vermont, trashed by catastrophic floods in July and early August.

Vermont Sen. Peter Welch acknowledge that money will eventually be restored even if there is a government shutdown. After all, much of it has already been allocated,  FEMA money is desperately needed by disaster-plagued communities now if not sooner. 

"We can't mess around with this bottom line. And it's absolutely inexcusable for us to not help the folks in Maui, to help the folks in Florida and to help the folks in this case, in Vermont" Welch said, as reported by CBS.

A shutdown would delay when those funds would be disbursed. "The pipeline of getting that money out is going to slowed down, because the people who logistically do the work of making sure all the paperwork is done on the federal side, some of those people will not be at their desks," U.S. Rep Becca Balint, D-VT told mychamplainvalley.com

The deadline for Vermonters to apply for individual assistance via FEMA is October 12. It's unknown whether a government shutdown would affect that deadline. I'm also not sure if there will be anybody to take applications to FEMA if the government shuts down after September 1. 

Among the communities worst hit in Vermont was Barre. Nicolas Storellicastro, Barre's City Manager told CBS a shutdown and even a temporary end to FEMA funding weighs heavily on him. "For us as a government, it would be devastating in the sense that we cannon, we absolutely cannot front the money to get us back to normal."

I'm being Vermont-centric here. But the reality is people all over the nation need FEMA disaster assistance. See those 23 billion dollar weather disasters cited above.

But of course we can't depend on some people in Congress to think about all the people that actually do need government services. They'd rather think of their political posturing, because to them, that's all there is. 

Disgusting! 

 

Ophelia Makes Landfall In North Carolina, Almost At Hurricane Strength

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Ophelia shortly after
it made landfall in North Carolina early this morning.
Center of Ophelia is in lower left of photo. It was
already sending high clouds all the way into southern Quebec.

Tropical Storm Ophelia almost made it to hurricane force before making landfall at 6:15 this morning at Emerald Island, North Carolina. It had top sustained winds of 70 mph,  just 4 mph shy of hurricane strength. 

That fact that Ophelia wasn't quite a hurricane at landfall doesn't matter much to the people living in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. 

It's still nasty, and a bit dangerous in this storm. Cape Lookout, North Carolina had sustained winds at 61 mph with gusts to 73 mph earlier this morning. 

At least 50,000 people were without electricity this morning in North Carolina and Virginia as of early this morning and that number is expected to grow.  

Coastal flooding isn't too extreme, but it is widespread. Coastal flood warnings extend from North Carolina all the way up to Long Island, New York. 

It no longer takes that much of a storm to cause coastal inundations because sea levels have risen due to climate change. 

Moisture from Ophelia raises the risk of inland flooding from North Carolina all the way up the coast to Connecticut.

Ophelia will gradually weaken and eventually turn into a fairly lame, non tropical storm somewhere near Delaware by Sunday night. 

The remnants of Ophelia could drift off the coast eventually and perhaps regenerate a bit over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, we'll see.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, we're certainly escaping much trouble from Ophelia here in the Green Mountain State, expect maybe in far southern Vermont. They will have a spell of rather unpleasant, but definitely not dangerous weather. 

Clouds and showers from moisture thrown north by Ophelia will keep far southern Vermont damp and chilly. In many towns in Bennington and Windham counties, highs today and tomorrow could stay in the 50s. 

Those clouds from Ophelia will make it all the way to the  Canadian border and beyond. But the further north you go in Vermont today and tomorrow, the higher and thinner the clouds.  That will allow some sun to come through, and it will be mild enough.

The clouds and possible sprinkles as far north as Route 4 will keep daytime temperatures both days this weekend in the mid 60s in central Vermont. 

By the time you get to Route 2 and north, highs both today and tomorrow will be well into the 60s to around 70.

The veil of high clouds over northern areas this weekend puts us at risk, for the lack of a better word of another round of gorgous sunsets this weekend. 

Beyond that, we get our biggest break of the year in terms of weather. Rainfall has become somewhere more infrequent in Vermont this month, at least compared to the constant deluges from mid-June through August.

Strong high pressure is still expected to stall mostly in Quebec starting Monday.  That means it appears we'll have generally sunny, mild days and cool nights with patchy fog daily Monday through possibly all the way to next Saturday. 

We'll get either no or extremely little rain. You might have to water late season plants. But things overall are so wet in the ground that a week of rainless weather won't harm anything. 

Get out and enjoy the great weather next week! 

DeSantis Other Right Wingers Moving Climate Denying Curricula Into Public Schools. Keep 'em Dumb I Guess

A right wing group is having some success introducing
dangerous climate misinformation into school classrooms
with the cooperation of ignorant politicians. 

 In his ongoing war against whatever he considers "woke," whatever that means, the administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wants to flood school kids with misinformation about climate change.

Not that we should be surprised by that. 

At issue is videos produced by something called Prager University Foundation.  That sounds like a legit institute of higher education, no? 

No. Hell no. 

As Scientific American points out bluntly - and accurately  - describes Prager as "a conservative group that produces videos that distort science, history, gender and other topics."

If you watch the Prager videos on climate, Scientific American reports, you will "learn":

"Climate activists are like Nazis....Wind and solar power pollute the Earth and make life miserable....Recent global and local heat records reflect natural temperature cycles."

None of this is true, of course.  Hard core conservatives love to talk about how supposed "liberal" institutions are "indoctrinating" youth, but talk about calling the kettle black!

From Prager's standpoint, the videos are supposedly meant to rebalance schools that have been "hijacked from the left," according the organizations CEO, Marissa Streit.  

'Young kids are being taught climate hysteria.....They're hearing that the world is coming to an end, and we think that there needs to be a healthy balance."

She then went into the usual spiel from climate deniers that the climate is always changing, blah, blah, blah. 

(To spell it out, yes the climate is always changing, but not remotely near the pace it's now changing because of our burning of fossil fuels).

The PragerU videos are insidious in their depiction of climate denial as honorable, standing up for what's right in the face of scorching (pardon the pun) opposition. 

As Scientific American describes it, a PragerU video depicts a Polish teenager named Ania who is concerned about climate change because of what she learned in school. She tells her parents, who Stepford Wife-like, recite verbatim the fossil fuel industry talking points. (Basically, the climate has always warmed and cooled, and China and India should cut emissions before we do, etc.).

Of course, the mean old teacher and classmates pretty much bully Ania for repeating her parents' talking points (because of course people who are worried about climate change are just hideous).  This leaves Ania sad.  Poor girl. 

But then it's Ania's grandfather to the rescue! Grandpa tells Ania what it was like living under Nazism in World War II and tells Ania "fighting oppression always takes courage."

See? In PragerU's worldview, climate activists and scientists are not trying to warn the world of dangerous, deadly climate change, and are not trying to save lives from future climate disasters. They're supposedly just as bad and murderous as the Nazis, who killed 6 million Jews because they found them distasteful. 

Climate scientists are actively trying to ruin little Ania's life by, um, discouraging her from rolling coal. 

Scientific American's August article said that "education advocates fear that the nation's third-largest state has granted a stamp of approval that will spread videos to classrooms in other states."

Sure enough, 

Oklahoma added PragerU videos to the state's school curriculum, with state education officials describing the content as pro-American, whatever that means. 

The teachers' union, Oklahoma Education Association, quickly clapped back with this statement:

"OEA continues to believe that curriculum offered in Oklahoma classrooms should meet the high standards set by our local education professionals. PragerU isn't a legitimate accredited education organization; it is a media organization, whose creator has admitted PragerU material 'indoctrinates' kids."

The union pointed out that parents and guardians can opt out of their children receiving PragerU content. 

By the way, this  blog is a climate and weather publication, so I'm not really getting into other videos by PragerU that are just as insidious. There's videos from this outfit that basically say racism no longer exists, and that men and women should stick strictly to "traditional" gender roles that went out the window for most of us decades ago. 

Bottom line: Beware of what your children are being taught, especially in states where far right politicians have a serious and dangerous agenda. 

 

Will Tropical Storm Ophelia Cause North Carolina Havoc And Mess With New England Weekend?

UPDATE 2 PM FRIDAY

Satellite view this morning of what is probably going
to become Tropical Storm Ophelia off the southeastern
United States coast. 

As expected and as I wrote about this morning, the mess of storm off the 

Southeast U.S. coast got better organized this morning and became a true tropical storm, instead of some weird hybrid.

As of 2 p.m. now-Tropical Storm Ophelia was centered about 150 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina and moving a little west of north. 

Top winds have increased since this morning to 60 mph.  It's still expected to come ashore in North Carolina probably early Saturday.

To become a hurricane, Ophelia would have to stay over open water for awhile.

That could happen, but it doesn't have a lot of time left before it comes ashore, so chances are it won't become quite a full fledged hurricane. 

But you ever know, 

Ophelia does look much better organized and much more like a tropical storm on satellite pictures than it was when the photo in this post was taken early this morning. Most of the systems thunderstorms are still to its north, but it now has a well-defined central, swirling core, like what you'd normally see with a tropical storm.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

That weird storm off the coast of Florida I mentioned yesterday is slowly developing into what forecasters think will turn into Tropical Storm Ophelia. 

Or maybe Phillippe if a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa can get its act together and turns into a tropical storm before the thing off the Southeast Coast manages to do the same. 

For now, we'll call the one we're worried about more Wannabe Ophelia. 

I've been calling it a weird storm because it started as a regular storm and is beginning to transition into one that is more of a tropical storm. For the record, during the transition, a storm like this is called a subtropical storm. 

A regular storm forms near the boundary of warm humid air to the south and cooler air to the north. This type of storm usually has a warm and a cold front, and doesn't have a nice circular shape like most tropical storms and hurricanes. 

That's how Wannabe Ophelia started. But now, strong thunderstorms are trying to get going, so far mostly north of the storm's center.  A tropical storm usually starts as a cluster of thunderstorms over warm water, which is what this thing is trying to do. It's also trying to become more independent from the warm and cold fronts near it. 

The thinking is the cold and warm fronts with the storm will eventually fade and this will become a subtropical or tropical storm. 

All of this technical and really won't matter to the  people who will be hit by the storm. Whatever you want to call Wannabe Ophelia, it was getting stronger this morning with top winds of 50 mph. 

More strengthening is possible as it moves north and it's forecast to hit eastern North Carolina by Saturday. The storm is already causing heavy rain and the risk of flooding in eastern North Carolina. 

It'll have all the characteristics of a strong tropical storm, with gusty, possibly damaging winds, flooding rains, and storm surges.  

THEN WHAT?

Once Wannabe Ophelia hits land, and if it's a tropical storm by then, it will start to transition back again to a regular, but very wet storm.  The question for us in Vermont is how far north will it get?

It's pretty safe to say Wannabe Ophelia will have enough oomph to cause some flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. After that, strong high pressure in Quebec will want to shove this thing east out to sea.

But will Wannabe Ophelia be able to push rain into Vermont before it gets shunted off and away from New England?

The computer models aren't sure. It's becoming more and more likely that it will rain in southern Vermont this weekend because of Wannabe Ophelia. Nobody is sure, though, how far north the rain will get. 

It could be a pleasant, dry weekend in northern Vermont, or it could be a cool, cloudy one with maybe some light rain.  Two very different options here. 

No matter what, it looks like a pretty safe bet that if Wannabe Ophelia does make it rain in Vermont, it won't be enough to renew any flooding worries. 

"Coldest" Morning Of The Vermont So Far Was Right About Normal, Actually

Wednesday was a candidate for the most perfect weather
day of the year in Vermont.  Trees aren't really turning
color yet, but the recent turn to more seasonable
temperatures might encourage some foliage in the coming days.

 This morning in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature went down to 47 degrees, the first time it was under 50 degrees since June 4.  

As far as I can determine, this looks like it might be the second longest period continuously above 50 degrees on record. This year it was 108 such days. In 2021, it was 110 days. 

This also  had to be one  of the latest or possibly even the latest first 50 of the autumn on record.  After all, it has been below freezing this time of year in Burlington, according to past weather records. 

All this is to say, it might have felt chilly this morning, but temperatures were actually very close to normal for the days around the Autumn Equinox. 

Morning lows in the warmer valleys of Vermont are usually within a few degrees of 50 degrees this time of year. Away from Lake Champlain, lows this time of year are generally in the 40s, which is right where most people were at dawn today 

The perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, New York was down to 31 degrees today, but for them, that's totally par for the course in mid-September. The cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom were in the upper 30s, but again, yawn. 

This of course, is what we've been waiting for in oddly humid June, July, August and early September. Tuesday was about as perfect a day as you could get: Deep blue skies dotted with just a few clouds, perfectly comfortable temperatures and a pleasant light breeze. It was a strong candidate for nicest day of 2023.

The good news is, the weather looks like it will stay almost as nice as Tuesday, with of course a few hiccups and caveats. 

Today will be another nice one.  We're back to having wildfire smoke in the atmosphere due to those ongoing Canadian fires. So the sky won't be as nice a deep blue as yesterday. It will have a disappointing haze to it. The smoke is aloft, so we don't really have to worry about air quality. 

Right now there's a weird storm forming off the east coast of Florida. Looks like it will be some sort of odd hybrid between a regular storm and a tropical storm. 

The effects on the ground won't matter either way. Things should get nasty in North Carolina and Virginia by Friday night, with gusty winds, storm surges and torrential rains. 

The question is how far this thing will move north.   Early signs suggest it might get shoved off to our south by strong high pressure building strength in Quebec, but there's no guarantees.   

Initial guesses are that rain might spread into southern Vermont over the weekend, but might not make it much further north than that. But nobody knows for sure. No flooding concerns with this one, though.

This silly storm could spread high clouds across Vermont like Lee did last Friday, which could give us another round of great sunsets. Especially with a little wildfire smoke in the upper atmosphere. 

After Rough Summer, How Will Vermont Fall Foliage Fare?

A fungus brought on by Vermont's extremely wet, humid
summer afflicts these sugar maple leaves in Richmond,
Vermont. Though the fungus won't harm the trees, it 
could somewhat mute fall colors this year. 

UPDATE: I should have mentioned when I first wrote this post that people who visit Vermont this fall should have no trouble seeing the sights and the beauty and getting around. 

There's been questions from out of staters as to whether they can actually come up to Vermont, given the devastating floods we had in July.

The answer of course is a resounding yes.

The roads are back open, the vast majority of businesses that cater to tourists visiting Vermont were either undamaged by the flood or have re-opened. 

That's not to minimize the continued suffering and uncertainty for the thousands of people directly affected by the flood.

But visitors will see our usual beautiful landscape intact

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The first fall colors of the season are starting to pop up in Vermont, a little late, but still noticeable in just a few isolated pockets.    

The swamp maples have really started to turn red, and some of the more precarious sugar maples out there are showing some isolated pockets of  color.  Even so, it's still mostly green out there. Once again, it looks like fall foliage season in Vermont tis running a little late. 

So, will this season be a vibrant one, or a bust?

 First of all, predicting the timing and especially the vibrancy of fall colors is harder than forecasting the weather, so expect some misses on this issue.  

Maybe more importantly, you'll definitely find a lot of beauty this fall. It might or might not be as vibrant as the past couple of years, but it will still be stunning. 

The last two years brought perfect summer and early fall weather that led to brilliant foliage seasons. However,  I'm personally leaning toward a prediction of a somewhat more muted autumn show in 2023.  I suspect some of the more vibrant reds that really make the colors pop might be missing this year. 

As we well know, it was an incredibly rainy, incredibly humid summer, even if it wasn't exactly the hottest one in memory. All that moisture lingering everywhere encourages fungi and other issues on leaves.

I've noticed in many locations, many of the leaves on sugar maples are turning yellow with spots of black, and falling prematurely. That's a fungus caused in large part by the rainy summer weather. This ultimately won't hurt the health of the trees, but it could well mute the autumn show.  At least i some areas. 

Another wild card is the intense, record breaking freeze Vermont suffered on May 18.  The freeze destroyed new oak, sumac and ash leaves. They shriveled up, turned black and fell off. By the end of June, these trees put out a new set of leaves, but the foliage was thinner than we otherwise might expect. 

Most of the cold hardy leaves, like on maples, beech, poplar and such, but I don't know whether there was hidden damage that could affect fall color.  

The Vermont landscape still looks really green now that
we're into mid-September. Warm weather this summer
and September so far appears as if it might make 
for a somewhat late fall foliage season. 

There's another more permanent foliage disappointment starting now. The emerald ash borer long expected to go on attack against Vermont's numerous white ash trees, is really going on the attack  now. 

This summer, I saw big swaths of dead and dying ash trees, all victims of the emerald ash borer. Over the coming few years, this awful bug will decimate Vermont's ash trees, as it has in other states.

This is a big disappointment, of course. Ash trees add variety to the fall foliage pallete,  They punctuate the reds and oranges of hillsides with pops of gold and purple.   So their loss will be hard to take.  

On the bright side, another forest-wrecking bug, the spongy caterpillar, once known as gypsy moth caterpillars failed to make an appearance this year after a couple years of these little buggers defoliating big swaths of Vermont forest. 

Leaves usually grow back after the caterpillars leave for the season in mid to late summer, but the returning foliage tends not to be as thick or prone to great fall colors had the trees not been touched. 

This year, a short but intense Arctic outbreak in early February killed many of the overwintering caterpillar eggs. The humid summer encourage a fungus that kills the caterpillars. So I guess there was one small benefit to all that rain through June, July and August. 

In general, it's thought that a bright, dry September with chilly nights and mild days encourages a better fall foliage season. So far this month, the pattern has been mostly wrong for that. We had a midsummer style heat wave between September 3 and 8.  Nights have ranged from sort of on the warm side to downright muggy and toasty.

As of Tuesday, the temperature in Burlington had yet to fall below 50 degrees this month.  These warm conditions appear to be making fall foliage season late. As of this past weekend, many hillsides in Vermont looked as green as they do in July, with no hints of color yet. 

As climate change has made conditions warmer, there has been a general trend toward a later fall foliage season. I remember growing up as a kid that fall foliage season was largely over by October 10.  Now, most years, you can find good color in the warmer valleys during the third week of October. 

Two years ago, there was still pockets of pretty fall colors in the opening days of November. 

Temperatures have turned decidedly cooler over the past couple of days as we inevitably head deeper and deeper into autumn. 

Long range forecasts continue to call for generally above normal temperatures into early October, but above normal doesn't mean the same as it did a few weeks ago. Even these warm spells will feature chilly nights and shorter days that will encourage the leaves to turn color pretty fast between now and mid October. 

Video: Taken over the past few days, it shows fungus afflicting sugar maple leaves and causing them to drop prematurely.  It also includes a view of hillsides a few days ago around Richmond, Vermont still looking very green for mid-September. Click on this link to view, or if you see image below, click on that: 

 

Damp Vermont Tuesday After Monday Storm Under-Performed

Pretty dark and damp today in northern Vermont, as you
can see from this photo this morning in St. Albans.
Much brighter, more pleasant weather is coming
for the rest of the week, though. 

Yesterday and last night's expected soaking in Vermont wasn't quite the soggy episode that many forecasters had expected. 

But it still rained hard in the bullseye zone of the storm in eastern Massachusetts, parts of New Hampshire and Maine. 

Western Maine had widespread two to three inch rain reports, with a few places getting more than that. Flood warnings were up for the region this morning but have since expired.  

Here in Vermont, I suspected in yesterday's post there would be a sharp cut off in rainfall amounts in the Champlain Valley, and that certainly came true.  Only 0.10 inches of rain fell yesterday in Burlington.  

Central Vermont got somewhat less rain than expected, with amounts, give or take in the half inch range. But southern and far eastern Vermont got an inch or more of rain, so they got what was coming to them. 

Today is looking wetter than we thought it would be only a couple days ago. That's especially true in northern and central Vermont. Frequent, mostly light showers have been ongoing all morning, and that state of affairs should continue through the day. 

Although radar isn't showing it, some of the shallow rain clouds overhead are actually able to produce brief heavy downpours. I passed through a couple such downpours driving through Georgia, Vermont this morning. 

If you do get a downpour, it won't long. They'll fall far, far short of ever being able to cause any high water issues. Just want to mention that in case you're understandably still spooked from Vermont disastrous summer of floods. 

Especially for those of you north of Route 4, today will be a classic raw, dark, autumn day, with temperatures holding in the low 60s again, on the cool side. This type of weather is pretty normal for mid-September. 

For those of you who don't like the gloom, we're still looking a few days of super pleasant, sunny, comfortable September days starting tomorrow. Most mornings will be pretty foggy, though, especially in the river valleys. That's typical of this time of year. The fog will clear up by mid-morning daily

It is nice to have a stretch of normal September weather for a change. 

For First Time, Category 5 Hurricanes This Year Everywhere That It's Possible

Satellite view of Category 5 Typhoon Mawar in the
northwestern Pacific Ocean back in May. Click
on the pic to make it bigger and easier to see.
It was one of seven Category 5 storms this year that
hit each ocean basin that can have hurricanes.

 There are seven ocean basins in the world where hurricanes can form. 

For the first time on record, Category 5 hurricanes formed in all seven of them this year, notes the Washington Post. 

Category 5 hurricanes are the strongest you can get. They have sustained winds of 157 mph or greater. You don't want one of these hitting your neighborhood. 

Luckily most of these Category 5 hurricanes so far this year have not hit populated land areas at full strength. But the fact that we got such strong hurricanes is concerning for sure. 

The reason we had these super strong hurricanes everywhere is the oceans are hot, hot, hot. A combination  of El Nino, which tends to heat up global air and oceans and climate change as pushed overall  global sea surface temperatures to record highs. 

In general, the warmer the ocean, the greater the chance a hurricane can get stronger. 

Two storms in the past week completed the list of Category 5 storms everywhere. Last Wednesday, Hurricane Jova in the eastern Pacific Ocean reached the rarified status of a super strong storm. Scientists say the fact that a category 5 hurricane formed in the Pacific during an El Nino is not that surprising. El Nino tends to create favorable conditions for strong hurricanes in the Pacific. 

Hurricane Jova eventually moved westward into colder waters and weakened. 

But then, Hurricane Lee blew up in the Atlantic Ocean last week, briefly reaching Category 5 status. El Nino usually causes hostile atmospheric conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong upper level winds usually weaken or even blow apart hurricanes. Still, Lee managed to become a Category 5, even though those strong upper level winds kept Lee's status as king of the hill pretty brief

 As we know, Lee eventually hit Nova Scotia and Maine Saturday as a destructive post-hurricane storm. 

Other storms in this year's rogues list of Category 5 hurricanes include Cyclone Freddy in the southwestern Indian Ocean last February. (Hurricanes are called cyclones in the Indian Ocean).

At its peak, Freddy had peak winds of 165 mph.  It also broke a world record for longevity, lasting five weeks. It caused quite a lot of destruction in eastern Africa. 

Next up was Cyclone Kevin, which rapidly intensified in the southwestern Pacific Ocean at the beginning of March. (Hurricanes in this zone are also called cyclones, like similar storms in the Indian Ocean).

Kevin reached peak intensity over open water, but even after weakening, it caused a lot of flooding and damaging winds on the island of Vanuatu, northeast of Australia, as the Washington Post notes. 

In April, another ocean basin that has hurricanes dealt with a Category 5 storm. This area is known as the Australian basin, which is basically the southeastern India Ocean. Cyclone Ilsa had top wind speeds of 160 mph and caused a lot of wind damage in remote settlements in Australia.

The northern India Ocean is considered yet another, separate ocean basin prone to hurricanes. In May, Cyclone Mocha rapidly intensified not long before landfall in Myanmar and Bangladesh, killing hundreds of people. Not long before landfall, Mocha had top winds of 175 mph. 

Finally in May, Super Typhoon Mawar developed in the northwestern Pacific  Ocean, becoming the strongest hurricane so far this year and the strongest storm on record in that part of the world in May. 

Mawar had top winds of 185 mph, which would certainly blow you hat off. 

This problem is far from over. Scientist say given the right conditions, hurricanes all over the world are now prone to rapid intensification and added strength due to record high ocean temperatures. 

El Nino will eventually end and ocean temperatures will cool a bit.  But those water temperatures will still be quite a bit warmer than they once were, due to the ongoing pressure from climate change. 

Any place a Category 5 storm hits will be devastated, of course.  These intense hurricanes will just be another of a mountain of logistical and recovery nightmares brought on by our consumption of fossil fuel. 

 

Record Global Trend Continues: August Was World's Hottest On Record

The world had its hottest August on record this year.
The only place that was cooler than the 20th century
average was in and near Antarctica for some reason.

 The numbers are in for August and to almost nobody's surprise once again, it was the hottest on record for Earth as a whole. 

Here's Yale Climate Connections with the update: 

"Berkeley Earth, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated August 2023 as the warmest August on record, crushing the previous August record by a huge margin. Global temperature amalyses extend back to 1850 in the NOAA database."

As I do every month, I'll note how long it's been since the world had even so much as a marginally cool August. If you're under the age of 45, you've never seen a global cool August. 

August was the 534th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. So yeah, this global warm trend has been going on for a little while, huh?

Before El Nino took hold earlier this year, most months were running in the top five warmest category, but not hottest ever.   Now, with El Nino, which usually gives global temperatures a boost, July and August have come in at record warmest.   

With El Nino expected to go full steam for the rest of the year, and climate change showing absolutely zero signs of letting up, all of 2023 looks like it will establish a new global record. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information says there's a 93 percent chance that this year will be the warmest on record

Reliable records go back two about 1850.

A whopping 228 major reporting stations across the world reported their hottest on record August temperatures. A grand total of zero reporting stations reported all-time coldest readings. 

Most of the cities that had record high August temperatures were in Japan, Turkey, Spain, France, and the southern United States. 

Through the end of August, fourteen nations or territories reported their hottest ever temperatures, Yale Climate Connections reports. 

 Reports from polar regions were mixed, but generally pretty damn bad. Antarctic sea ice extent for August was the lowest on record. On the sort of bright side, ice growth around Antartica was a little better than average. Even better, the Antarctic region had its 16th coolest August on record, seriously bucking the trend seen in the rest of the world during the month. 

Arctic sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record. So not the worst, but definitely far from the best. 

Greenland is also closely watched, because unlike frozen oceans, any ice that melts off of the Greenland ice sheet will raise global sea levels

This summer in Greenland got less attention than it deserved. The amount of melting off of Greenland was the second worst this year since they starting keep track of this in 1978 via satellite. Only the epic melt year of 2012 was worse.

Greenland's melt rate was far above average from late June through July, when you'd expect the most melting in Greenland. However, by late August, it normally has started to get cooler up there, so ice melt doesn't usually amount to much.  

Not this year.  A mid-month melting spike astounded scientists, as the thawing approached record melt paces from June and July. 

With El Nino expected to last into the winter, and climate change roaring along, it looks like we'll see a few more record global hot months heading through the fall and winter.