Huge Area Of Northern United States Under Wind Alerts

High winds are and will be buffeting large areas of
the northern and western United States over the 
next couple of days. Areas in various shades of 
brown are under high wind warnings,
watches or advisories. 

 Those atmospheric rivers that are threatening the Pacific Northwest are teaming up with other weather systems to put an enormous are of the northern United States under wind alerts. 

High wind warnings and watches and wind advisories this afternoon extend from the Pacific Coast in Washington and Oregon all the way to western Minnesota. 

The wind is being created by the storms and a strong west-to-east jet stream coming off the ocean in the Pacific Northwest. An Arctic high pressure pushing down toward Montana from Canada is helping stir up the winds. 

So is pretty strong Alberta Clipper storm  that will head across the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow and reach the Great Lakes area by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

I imagine some more wind advisories might eventually be hoisted because of this Alberta Clipper in some of Great Lakes states and maybe parts of  the Northeast. 

In the wide open expanses of Big Sky Montana, and the northern Plains, the terrain doesn't do much to stop or break up winds, so strong winter gusts are pretty common out there. Still, widespread areas could see gusts to 65 mph over the next couple of days. 

The good news is the huge area of high wind warnings across the northern Plains won't cause as much damage as a similarly huge area of strong gusts would on the East Coast. In the Plains, there's not that many trees to topple onto power lines and houses.  Plus, the populations is quite sparse, so there's relatively few people getting caught up in the storminess. . 

Along the eastern seaboard, heavily forested cities and neighborhoods and a dense population would mean hundreds of thousands of power outages and quite a few homes and cars damaged by falling trees if hit by a windstorm that's looming over places like Montana and North Dakota. 

The Pacific Northwest is heavily populated and full of trees, so there will be some power outages and downed trees and branches. But the winds there generally won't be as strong as they will be in the northern Plains. Places like Seattle and Portland might see gusts to 40 or 45 mph or so.

As mentioned Saturday, the real problem for the Pacific Northwest is the atmospheric rivers smashing into the region. Major flooding is still anticipated up in that neck of the woods. 

Did Past Climate Change Cause Medieval Black Death?

Recent research suggests volcanic eruptions in the tropics
around the year 1345 was the spark that eventually 
led to the Black Death in Europe.  It was an 
instance showing that climate change, whether
natural or man made can have 
tragic, unintended effects.

Climate change deniers have one argument that is at least partly right: Climate change has always happened. 

There's the human-induced climate change we're experiencing now. Fossil fuel emissions keep making the planet hotter and hotter.  

As most of us know, many other things can change the climate, sometimes slowly, sometimes at the drop of a hat. Like volcanic eruptions. 

Maybe the most famous instance was in 1815, when the erupting Mount Tambora in present-day Indonesia threw so much gunk into the atmosphere that it created the "Year Without a Summer" in 1816.

Crop failures and other calamities with that cold summer causes suffering world wide. 

There's evidence another volcano caused an even more extreme human disaster - the Black Death in the 14th century.  . 

It was easily among the worst pandemics in human history. It killed probably half of Europe's population. 

So what set it off? Recent research seems to indicate a volcano or volcanoes started the dominoes to topple.  

Researchers digging through historical documents, tree rings, ice core samples from Antarctica and Greenland came up with an explanation for the Black Death. The research was recently published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment. 

According to CNN:

"The study authors believe an eruption occurred around 1345, about two years before the start of the pandemic, from either a single volcano or a cluster of volcanoes of unknown locations, likely in the tropics. The resulting haze from volcanic ash would have partially blocked sunlight across the Mediterranean region over multiple years, causing temperatures to drop and crops to fail." 

The resulting grain shortage threatened to spark civil unrest or even a famine. Italian city-states like Venice and Genoa, resorted to emergency imports from near the Black Sea, and that helped prevent trouble.

At first.

But then there's this, according to CNN:

"However, ships that carried the grain were loaded with a deadly bacterium: Yersinia pestis. The pathogen, originating from wild rodent populations in Central Asia, went on to cause the plague that devastated Europe."

The bacteria can survive for months on grain dust, so it had no trouble making it to Venice and Genoa and places like that. It survived in grain storage, and when the grain was traded elsewhere in Europe. 

The bacterium that was in the grain infects rat fleas, which in turn hits rats and other rodents. The bacterium pretty much killed all the rats once they got to Europe. So, the bacteria had to find some other mammal to attack. Those mammals were human Europeans. 

The bacterium was really effective. Before the Black Death, the world's population was a little under 450 million. Between 1347 and 1351, the Black Death killed more than 25 million people. 

The bottom line: Climate change, in this instance natural, temporary and brief, helped trigger one of the most disruptive and tragic chapters in human history. 

Just to be clear, I'm not at all suggesting climate change had anything to do with the Covid pandemic that started in late 2019 and engulfed the world in 2020. That pandemic and climate change are two completely separate issues.

However, the Black Death study is a reminder that the climate change we're going through now can have scary effects that could take us all by surprise. This blog has for years been telling you about things climate change has caused, and things it might cause. 

But there are other effects of climate change we have no way of predicting. As they say, we don't know what we don't know.  

 

Yes, The Vermont Cold Is Awful But It's Been Worse

This little comic work for this month, that's for
sure. But other Decembers in Vermont have
been even worse. 

 I was among many Vermonters last week grumbling over the coldest beginning of December in 36 years.

 It's cold again this Monday morning, and it'll stay cold until a brief, snow and perhaps brief rainy interlude Wednesday. 

Then, we go back into an extended period of cold. 

It's true that this is so far turning out to be the chilliest December in many years. It's disheartening to go outside and have your face hurt, it's so cold. 

Here in St. Albans, it's been days since Henry the Weather Dog, a native of balmy South Texas, has gone exploring and hunting outside like he enjoys. Instead, it's been quick trips outdoors, then a frantic dash back indoors. 

I can't blame the little guy. 

I guess one way to endure the this cold early winter is to understand it could be worse. It has been worse. And I've got plenty of receipts to prove it. 

As usual, I can point to even worse weather in the past. What follow is a fairly exhaustive list of December cold spells that will have you reaching for yet another thick blanket to huddle under. 

Christmas, 1872    

This was perhaps the most brutal Christmas Day Vermont has seen.  As children opened their presents early that morning, it was 40 below in Randolph, 43 b below in Lunenberg, and minus 41.5 degrees in Woodstock.  

December, 1917

The early part of the month was cold, as temperatures went below freezing on the second and failed to get above 32 again until the 19th. After some relatively  mild weather over the Christmas holiday, the bottom really dropped out of the temperature in the days leading up to New Yoears' 

The high temperature in Burlington on December 29 was 16 below, at 12:01 a.m. From there temperatures kept dropping down to as low as 23 below. Next morning, it was 25 below, and rose all the way to 13 below on the afternoon of the 30th.  It stayed well below zero until New Year's Dauy

Over in St. Johnsbury, the cold was even more insane during December, 2017. The "appetizer" cold waves earlier in the month were bad enough. It was 12 below that year on December 12; then 26 below on December 12 and a frigid 29 below on December 16. 

But the cold on the final days of the month in St. Johnsbury were beyond ridiculous. It was 43 below on December 30. By New Year's Eve, it had warmed up to a balmy 40 below. 

December, 1933

Nobody thought it could get colder in Vermont than Christmas week, 1917, but they were proven wrong in December, 1933.

The month as a whole was quite chilly, but not as bad as 1917. But the final days of December, 1933 made up for that relative lack of early month cold. 

Most famously, this cold wave brought Vermont its coldest temperature on record. It got down to 50 below in Bloomfield, in the Northeast Kingdom.  In St. Johnsbury, it was 42 below on December 30, 1933, almost as bad as 1917. 

The northern Champlain Valley was impressively cold, too. St. Albans reached a remarkable 36 below on December 30. Down in Burlington, it was 29 below December 29 and 30. 

 December 1940

This month wasn't particular cold, but got off to a very rough start.  Most record lows around the Champlain Valley in early December are in the single numbers below zero. But on December 3 the temperature reached 15 below in Burlington. The next day, it was 17 below. 

There are no record lows colder than that in Burlington until you get to December 20, just two years after this cold spell. In 1942, it got to 20 below.,  

On December 4 and 5, other Vermont record lows include 34 in Enosburg Falls; 31 below in Chelsea; 31 below in Bloomfield. St. Johnsbury reached 27 below on December 4, and 16 below in Rutland. 

Christmas, 1980

This was a very similar holiday to the cruelly frigid Christmas of 1872, that I described above. A sharp cold front passed through on Christmas Eve, depositing three to six inches of snow in most places, ensuring a white Christmas.

But that cold front was a powerhouse. By 12:01 a.m. Christmas Day it was 5 below in Burlington. That would be the high temperature that day. The temperature reached 20 below at 7 a.m., and then rose only to minus 14 between 3 and 4 p.m. It got down to 25 below at midnight to set the record for the coldest Christmas on record. It was 26 below on December 26.

Stiff north winds kept wind chills Christmas Day in the minus 30s and 40s.  

Other actual temperatures in Vermont included 38 below on top of Mount Mansfield, 35 below in West Burke, minus 31 in St. Johnsbury and  minus 28 in Newport; 

 December, 1989

By the late 1980s, were were just starting to really feel the effects of climate change. Winters were getting warmer and less consistent. But 1989 proved you can still get brutally cold months, even with an overall warmer world. 

The month's average temperature was 7.5 degrees, breaking the previous 1917 coldest December record by 4.7 degrees. That's an incredibly large margin by which to break a monthly temperature. It was the sixth coldest of any month in Burlington, and the first time one of the top 10 coldest months was in December. 

The cold in December 1989 was not as intense as it was in 1917 or 1933, as the coldest temperature for the month in Burlington was an unspectacular 18 below. 

But the cold in 1989 was incredibly consistent. Nineteen days in Burlington featured subzero temperatures. Every day from December 1 through 30 was at least 11 degrees below normal. Every 25 daytime high between December 8 and 30 was 25 degrees or under that. 

Funny personal anecdote:  I badly broke my ankle in late November that year. During the middle of that frigid December, I was in downtown Burlington. We had just gotten nearly a foot of snow in a mid-month storm. It was freezing cold that day, of course! 

Back then, you had to put quarters and such in parking meters.I couldn't climb the snowbank on crutches, so I gave an expensively dressed, middle aged woman a quarter to put in the meter for me. She took the quarter and walked away triumphantly as if I gifted her a diamond tiara. 

I hope she spent that quarter well! 

 COLD DECEMBER, COLD WINTER?

The records are mixed on whether a cold December means the rest of the winter will be frigid. 

The cold December of 1917 introduced a frigid winter. To this day, the winter of 1917-18 is the coldest on record in Burlington

The winter of 1933-34 was also unusually cold. February, 1934 is still the coldest on record, at le4ast as measured in Burlington.  

After December, 1980, January of 1981 is the seventh coldest on record, But February, 1981 is the warmest on record.

As for the cold December, 1989, things turned around immediately in January.  January, 1990 is the second warmest on record. February that year was on the warm side, too. 

Bottom line, I have no idea what the rest of the winter will be like. 

Rogue Private Companies Trying To Stop Climate Change In Potentially Dangerous, Risky Ways

A company called Make Sunsets wants to pump 
sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to blunt
climate change. Sounds good, but a lot 
can go wrong with this idea. 

You can combat climate change, at least a little, for just $1.00.  The problem is, that $1 to fight climate change might backfire enough to make climate change seem like a trifle. 

The dollar would go to a private company called Make Sunsets. As the Washington Post explains:

"Your dollar will pay for founder Luke Iseman to drive a Winnebago RV into the hills half an hour outside Saratoga, California, to release a balloon loaded with sulfur dioxide, an air pollutant normally spewed by volcanic eruptions. He and his 1,000 paying customers hope the balloon will burst in the stratosphere, releasing particles that will block sunlight and cool the planet."

Of course, just one of those little balloons won't have any effect on climate change. Make Sunsets has released just over 240 pounds of sulfur dioxide this year. You need to release millions of tons of that chemical every year to change global temperatures. 

For instance, in 1991, the Mount Pinatubo volcano erupted in what was easily among the biggest eruptions in a century. It released 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.  

That eruption dropped global temperatures by about 1 degree Fahrenheit for nearly two years. But those cooler temperatures were still above the 20th century average. 

Still, as the WaPo points out, private businesses are diving into the idea of blocking the sun through chemicals. "Make Sunsets has raised more than $1 million from investors and sold more than $100,000 worth of 'cooling credits' to customers this fall. A better-funded competitor, Stardust, has raised $75 million to develop a more sophisticated geo engineering method it says will be ready to launch by the end of the decade- although its founders vow they won't deploy their technology unless a government hires them to do so." 

These companies are jumping in because they say scientists and governments are too slow and plodding with possible solutions to climate change. So they want to speed it up. Reading between the lines, these companies want to make a pile of money and fast.  

There is reason why these scientists and governments are so "slow and plodding." 

The technologies these companies are playing with could have really bad unintended consequences, like altering global weather patterns in ways that could be even more dangerous than climate change. These tech ideas could increase air pollution and cancer rates.

 Here'a a pertinent quote in that Washington Post piece:

"'I do not trust the private sector to make good decisions for people,' said Shuchi Galati, founder of the nonprofit Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering. 'The whole move-fast-and-break-things ethos - I've see it and it hasn't gone particularly well for society."

Most governments don't have specific laws banning geoengineering. But remember those kinda wacky laws in some states, and a Marjorie Taylor Greene-sponsored piece of legislation that banned weather modification due to unfounded fears of chemtrails?  Those laws might just apply to these geoengineering firms. 

The Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency has already gone after Make Sunsets for the minuscule amount of sulfur dioxide the company has put into the air. Which is a bit rich, since the Trump people have rolled back regulations that were helping reduce fossil fuel emissions.  The most obvious way to fight climate change is getting rid of fossil fuel, but that would make the Trump people unhappy. So we can't have that. 

But even if every nation in the world enacted laws and regulations banning freelance methods of trying to blunt climate change, like pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, that might not stop real trouble.  A few rogue  billionaires will probably try to get around nations' "stupid laws"  - possibly at humanity's expense. 

HOW IT GOES SOUTH

Luke Iseman, the founder of Make Sunsets, said he got the idea for his business from the science fiction novel "Termination Shock." The premise of the novel is that billionaires take it upon themselves to fight climate change. 

In the book, a Texas billionaire launches a geoengineering project that does save low lying areas from sea level rise, but also introduces a brutal, deadly drought elsewhere. Obviously, a lot more goes on that in the story, but the book's title refers to the concept that once a geoengineering project starts, abruptly stopping it later results in skyrocketing warming, which is called termination shock. 

Termination shock would have the world abruptly warm to the high levels you would have had if you didn't reduce fossil fuel usage, and never tried to block the sun with sulfur dioxide, or whatever you're trying to use to do that . 

Remember how within a couple years after Pinatubo blew up in 1991, climate change picked up where it left off? That was a couple years. The world without Pinatubo's sulfer dioxide wasn't that much warmer in 1993 than it was in 1990.  In the grand scheme of things, mankind didn't have to make many quick adjustments due to a new climate.

Now imagine if we cut off climate change today by spraying the stratosphere with sulfur dioxide and kept doing it until, say, 2060.  Suddenly, within a year, maybe 18 months after 2060, the world abruptly warms from something like we have now, which is bad enough, to something dangerously hotter. 

It's hard enough adapting to climate change at the pace it's going now. Imagine trying to deal with the sudden extreme heat, even more extreme storms and gawd knows what else if global temperature spikes incredibly sharply in a year or two. 

Then imagine the cascading food shortages, disasters and resulting civil unrest, mass migration and war this snap-of-the-fingers change might bring.  There's a recipe for a dystopian novel at best, an incredibly grim future at worst

The trouble with some (most?) billionaires is that they think they're the Enlightened Ones, who are smarter than everybody else. So they'll just do what they want because their narcissism makes them think they can save the world. Or at least add to their billions in cash they have piled up. 

 The minions the billionaires collect like dust bunnies under the sofa will do it.  (That's why Congress kowtows to the 1% so much nowadays. They want their take of the profits.

Here's the Washington Post quote from Iseman himself:

"If every country in the world bans this, and a billionaire comes to me and says, 'Here's a boat with a flag of convenience that's not going to enforce the ban...I want to take credit if people like it and have plausible deniability if they don't. Go. You know, I can think of no better way to spend the next several years."

The plausible deniability part of the quote really had my eyes rolling to the back of my head.  

What happens when the billionaire runs out of money, or more likely loses interest in the geoengineering project as fast as a dude with ADHD loses interest in any boring spreadsheet you put in front of him? . 

Billionaires almost never suffer the consequences of what they start. So when the climate really goes haywire when the said billionaire abandons his little sulfur dioxide scheme,   he'll be whisked to his safe private island, safe from the global chaos he's created. 

While the rest of us rubes pay the consequences.  

Vermont Sunday Morning: Back To The Slowly Deepening Snow Pack Amid Cold December

The next round of snow this afternoon and tonight
looks light and fluffy, but will add to the deep snow
in the mountains. As you can see in this National
Weather Service map, many places in northern
Vermont can expect a good two inches of new
snow by tomorrow morning, while southern
Vermont valleys get very little. 

It snowed a little again last night in much of northern Vermont, part of a slowly deepening snowpack that has been really piling up in the Green Mountains since early November. 

Most places got an inch or less last night, with a few places receiving nothing at all. But a couple more inches hit the central and northern ski areas.

The difference between valley and mountain in terms of snow cover is always wide. This year, it's extreme. 

In the Champlain Valley, Burlington has had 13.3 inches of snow this season as of yesterday, which is 4.4 inches above normal. Respectable enough, but some of the Green Mountains are absolutely bonkers with snow.   

Jay Peak is always basically a snow globe, but this year it's ridiculous. The ski resort there reports 22 inches of new snow in the first week of December for a total so far of 141 inches. 

Even if you factor in ski resort snow report inflation, they've had an impressive early winter so far. Jay Peak has  definitely dropped the warning, "early season conditions exist" from their snow report, since conditions are more like midwinter.

Up on Mount Mansfield, there was four feet of snow at the measuring stake just below the summit. That's close to a record depth for this time of year. On average, snow cover at the Mount Mansfield stake does't reach four feet until late January. 

Between the persistent cold weather that's been great for snowmaking and the manna from the snow gods, this is Vermont's best start to ski season in years, maybe even decades. 

NEXT UP

Coming up: A, little more snow. 

This afternoon will only make it into the 20s - maybe upper teens in the high elevations north. If you saw glimpses of sun this morning, that's it for bright skies today as that next wave of light snow moves in this afternoon.  

This will be another mostly northern Vermont thing, with two to as much as four inches of fluff overnight. Even northern valleys should get at least two inches of snow. Amounts will taper off once you get into the valleys in southern parts of the state. Those places will get a dusting at best.

The cold regime we've been enduring will continue big time as we start the week, too. Burlington - and numerous other valley towns - managed to sneak above freezing briefly Saturday. That was our big thaw, I guess.

The snow should pretty much end before dawn in most spots. But that new snow, and blowing snow, and temperatures plummeting into the single digits means we'll once again deal with a crappy morning commute on the roads Monday morning. I know. Sigh. 

Monday itself will be another frigid day as we only make it into the teens during the afternoon. That's about 20 degrees colder than average for this time of year.  Then, tomorrow night, it's back below zero for many of us. 

Tuesday looks quiet and cold, as temperatures recover into the 20s. 

The next storm comes along Wednesday. Again, it'll be a not-that-big affair. And since it's going by to our west, it'll push another brief squirt of warmer air into the region. By "warm" I mean near normal for this time of year. 

Since the warmer valleys might get into the 30s, some rain might mix in during the day. But the mountains will pretty much remain snow through the entire storm.

Starting Wednesday, a gigantic blast of Arctic air will come into the U.S., eventually affecting everyone north and east of a line from Montana to Georgia. 

Yesterday I mentioned we might get a second storm on Friday. It's beginning to look possible that the g huge gush of frigid air might be so strong that it would suppress that second storm to our south, and we'd miss out. It's a little soon to tell for sure. 

We do know that temperatures will be heading downhill later in the week once again. Plus, there will be disturbances in that icy air flow that will trigger more snow from time to time, especially in the northern Green Mountains. So the snow will continue to deepen in those mountains through the entire upcoming week. 

 

Pacific Northwest Braces For Atmospheric Rivers, Flooding Over Next Few Days

Atmospheric rivers could bring up to 10 inches
of rain in the next few days parts of the Pacific
Northwest, raising flooding fears. This map is
forecast rain for the next 7 days. 

The Pacific Northwest has a wet, dark reputation this time of year. The people are nice enough, the weather is not. Sufferers of seasonal affective disorder will do well to avoid places like Seattle and Portland this time of year. 

Usually, it's a grinding, boring day after day realm of drizzle, light rain, fog and chill. Sometimes, though, things can really get out of hand. 

The next few days look what one of those out of hand periods.

A strong atmospheric river is due to hit Washington and Oregon beginning tomorrow and lasting through much of the week. This long lasting deluge is sure to cause at least some flooding and landslides as inches and inches of rain bombard the western halves of Washington and Oregon. 

Some areas of Washington and Oregon could get four to as much as 10 or more inches of rain by Wednesday night.   The Willamette Valley, which runs roughly from Portland to Eugene, Oregon, is expecting three to five inches of rain. 

The Seattle metro area could get two to five inches of rain, which means clogged drains and street flooding, landslides on steep slopes and shallow-rooted trees toppling over as soil turns to loose mud. 

But the real problem looks like it will be in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle and Portland, and the Olympic Mountains of northwest Washington. 

Five to ten inches of rain could pour down on these mountains, which would quickly race down steep slopes into populated valleys below.  

The atmospheric river - really a series of atmospheric rivers - are tapping into tropical moisture which of course involves warm air. That means snow levels will be high.  You'll probably have to get above 6,000 above sea level to hit snow. That leaves only the higher peaks and volcanoes in the wintry weather. . 

The higher the snow level, the more water will race down the slopes, which is why everybody is so worried about flooding. Flood watches are up for all of the western third of Washington and much of western Oregon. 

Officials in both states said people in flood prone areas should have spent Saturday and as much of the day Sunday as they could getting ready for high water. 

It's always hard to predict exactly how high rivers will get in these situations. But the flood-prone Snoqualmie River is forecast to reach near major flood stage Tuesday, then have a secondary major flood stage peak on Thursday. 

Some of the flooding could extend across the border to Vancouver Island and other areas of southwest British Columbia, Canada, but the worst effects still look like they'll hit south of the border. 

The Cascade Mountains will wring out some of the moisture, so eastern Washington won't get much rain. But the storms will then hit the mountains of Idaho and western Montana, where more rain and snow will fall.

The snow levels in Idaho will be oddly high because of the warm air. Elevations below 8,200 feet or so will probably see mostly rain.  

This type of weather pattern often brings incredibly strong winds to parts of Montana and Wyoming, so those two states will be looking out for that this week.  

Late this week, the super rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest will slow down or stop for about a week, give or take. Then the atmospheric rivers might resume again. 

 

Relentless Cold December Weather Shows No Sign Of Breaking For Weeks

Winter tossed down a few more snowflakes in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. We're stuck in a
pretty intense cold weather pattern and there's
no real end in sight. 

I'll give you the grim news straight up:

We here in Vermont are locked in an awful, cold weather pattern, one with super-unusual persistence and one we are completely unused to, since recent winters have been so warm.

I feel like a doctor giving a bad diagnosis. But this is just cold winter weather, not something life-changing. It's all about perspective. 

In fact, though some of us are dreading the uncomfortable cold, the claustrophobia of not wanting to go outside and the high heating bills, other people are far less gloomy. I imagine a lot of people here in Vermont are cheering the prospect of continued great early season skiing and riding, and the prospect of one of the earliest starts to ice fishing season in recent memory. 

THE SETUP

In hindsight, we could see the first hints of this near-constant supply of cold air from Canada back in late October.  The pattern kept getting its act together more and more in November. Finally, now that we're in December it's a full blown Arctic weather regime. 

It's now looking more and more likely that we're stuck in the cold air perhaps through December at least. 

Sometimes, once a frigid pattern like this gets set up in the winter, you can't dislodge it for weeks and weeks. The last time we got into a stuck pattern like this, it lasted from mid-January to about early to mid-March, 2015.

Even then, the cold pattern of 2015 didn't completely break dow until around April Fool's Day. 

Sometimes, these patterns shut down abruptly. An extreme example came in late November and December, 1989.  That December turned out to be by far Vermont's  coldest on record. Then the pattern flipped.  January, 1990 ended up being the second warmest on record

The bottom line is, we don't know whether this is just a December thing, or something for the entire winter. My gut tells me January and February might not be quite as much on the cold side, but who knows? We'll see.

All we know is we'll generally be in this cold regime for at least the next two weeks. After that, the forecasts get very, very fuzzy.  

Not all outbreaks of cold air will be as intense as the one we had Thursday and Friday morning, which brought Vermont its coldest December weather in 36 years. But it will be cold most of the time. 

This is a case in which climate change is sort of our friend. True, we'll have some days that are much, much colder than normal, even by the chillier 20th century measure. But since the world is warmer than it was decades ago, chances are most of these blasts of frigid air won't be as intense as they would have been 50 or 100 years ago. 

This type of weather pattern is usually dry. Typically, you get a series of Alberta clippers that throw down an inch, two, maybe three inches of snow each time they come through. Each Alberta clipper introduces another shot of horribly cold air. 

Sometimes, snow lovers can get lucky in these cold patterns. Every once in awhile, one of these Alberta Clippers can hook up with a wetter storm to the south. They combine to form a nor'easter that can dump a lot of snow. 

Also, every once in awhile, a rogue storm might also go by to our west, giving a brief interlude of  relative warmth and mixed precipitation before the deep freeze resumes within a day or two.

 SPECIFIC FORECAST 

We're getting a semi-break in the cold today, as highs in the low 30s. That's still a little colder than average for this time of year, but not by much. There were some snow showers around northern Vermont this morning but they didn't amount to much. Some sun is working its way through, so today's your day for winter sports fun. 

The cold returns tomorrow, and that intensifies tomorrow night and Monday. Highs will be in the 20s Sunday, which is about ten degrees colder than average. 

A reinforcing shot of cold air Sunday night will throw down an inch or two of snow, maybe a tad more in the mountains as it comes through. 

It'll be in the single numbers by the time you get up Monday morning. The snow will be pretty much over, but of course the roads won't be perfect quite yet. After high temperatures only in the teens Monday, most of us in Vermont will get below zero again Monday night. 

It looks like a pair of those Alberta clippers will then come through next week, one on Wednesday and one on Friday. 

Instead of coming right at us from Alberta, these storms look like they'll  take a curving path down into the central Plains and southern Great Lakes, then head northeastward toward us.

That will enable each storm to pick up a little extra moisture and a bit of warmth. That could mean we get moderate snowfall out of each, and maybe some rain or an icy mix thrown in with them. It's too soon to know for sure, so we'll need to keep an eye on them. 

The second clipper seems to want to introduce a massive Arctic air outbreak that will arrive in the northwestern Plains Wednesday, then spread through most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States thereafter. 

That frigid air would arrive in Vermont Friday right after the second storm passes. 

 

Fossil Fuel Infrastructure Could Endanger Health Of 47 Million Americans

A Boston University study says that the sprawling
U.S. fossil fuel industry presents health risks
 to nearly 47 million Americans.

Just the infrastructure that supports our massive diet of fossil fuels is endangering the health of 47 million Americans, a Boston University study has concluded. 

According to phys.org

"Between the initial extraction site and the final power-generating facility, oil and gas are also refined to remove impurities, held in storage facilities, and transported from place to place. These mid-supply chain steps occur in a sprawling fossil fuel infrastructure network that spans the United States and is often hidden from plain sight.

A new study by Boston University researchers offers a first-tine look at populations living with 1.6 km (roughly a mile) of fossil fuel infrastructure across all stages of the supply chain. Published in Environmental Research Letters, the study estimates that 46.6 million people in the contiguous U.S. live within about a mile of at least one piece of fossil fuel infrastructure. This represents 14.1% of the population."

If you break down and separate the villains, it goes like this: Nearly 21 million Americans live near end-use facilities like power plants. More than 20 million people live near extraction sites, like gas and oil wells. 

More than six million people live near storage facilities like underground gas storage facilities and petroleum product terminals. About 9 million people live near more than one of these categories of fossil fuel installations. 

As was well known already, mostly people of color are exposed to various parts of the fossil fuel supply chain. And, also seemingly obviously, urban dwellers more than rural people. 

Boston University says the study helps bring a greater understanding of the size and scope of fossil fuel infrastructure risks, and also provides clues as to which people are exposed to which hazards.

This will also help with planning where to put more infrastructure, or where to remove it if possible. For instance, storage is risker for more people than extraction. On average, about 2,900 people live within a mile of a single set of storage tanks and that sort of thing. By contrast, a single piece of an extraction setup, like an oil well or fracking operation, has only 17 nearby inhabitants.

The risks can come in many forms. There could be an oil or gas leak. Or pollution from a petrochemical plant. Or a railroad derailment. 

Obviously, pretty much every industry carries some risk to nearby residents. In every industry, there are good, honest players and others who cut corners for profit, no matter the risk to the public. I'm sure there are bad actors in the clean energy field, too. 

But this study is just yet another example of why we should find ways to wean ourselves away from fossil fuel as alternative methods are found. 

 

Zillow Drops Climate Change Information From Listings;

Zillow has dropped climate change information from its
real estate listings. Reportedly at least in part due to
resistance from the real estate industry

More than a year ago, Zillow, the big online real estate marketplace, began providing climate change risks in their listings.

They were responding to a willing audience, which for the most part really wanted that information to judge the risks of buying a home in a particular area. Especially now that climate change is upping the risk of disasters. 

A 2023 survey conducted by Zillow indicated 80% of buyers now consider climate risks when shopping for a home. 

But, as always, the moneyed class getting more money is far, far more important than those lowly home buyers. The climate change info is no longer on Zillow listings. 

According to realestatenews.com:

"Home search leader Zillow has changed the way that it shares climate risk information -directing visitors to the website of data partner First Street rather than surfacing it on Zillow home details page.

'This update ensures consumers continue to have access to important information to help them consider factors such as insurance, repair costs and long-term homeownership planning, and reflects our long-standing commitment to empowering consumers with transparent information,' a Zillow spokesperson shared with Real Estate News over email when asked about the move."

Well, at least you can get the information.You have to really dig for it, but I suppose it's there. 

The real estate industry appears to have helped kill Zillow's climate information sharing. As The Guardian explains it:

"....Zillow has deleted this climate index in the wake of complaints from real estate agents and some homeowners that the rankings appeared arbitrary, could not be challenged and harmed house sales. The complaints included those from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service, which oversees a database of property that Zillow relies upon."

It seems like the climate change information on Zillow fell victim in part to profit margins. People who want to sell homes, the real estate industry and insurers. There's a lack of affordable housing. There's been climate-driven disasters that have destroyed thousands of homes. 

"All of that adds pressure to close sales however possible....Climate risk data didn't suddenly become inconvenient. It became harder to ignore in a stressed market," said Matthew Ely, founder an chief executive of First Street, as Mother Jones reports.

First Street officials,  the Zillow data partner that compiled the climate risk information, said removing the information from Zillow website will leave many buyers"flying blind" at a time when the effects of extreme weather are messing with the real estate market in the U.S, Eby said. 

"The risk doesn't top away; it just moves from a pre-purchase decision into post-purchase liability....Families discover after a flood that they should have purchased flood insurance, or discover after the sale that wildfire insurance is unaffordable or unavailable in their area."

Of course the First Street climate risk data that was until recently on Zillow probably had some margin of error. The science of tagging individual properties with exact levels of climate risk might not be completely there yet. 

If these assessments are wrong, they could perversely make people doubt climate change, as the Mother Jones article notes. 

Meanwhile, other real estate sites are still showing climate data in their home listings. An example is Redfin, which said in a statement that they "will continue to provide the best-possible estimates of the risks of fires, floods and storms."  

Yes, It Was Remarkably Cold In And Around Vermont This Morning. Also, Winter Will Rage On

Steam rising from Lake Champlain in the distance
on the coldest early December morning in 36 years.
Image is from hazecam.net

Midwinter cold settled over Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, giving us the most intense early December cold in years. 

A final accounting of this morning's low temperatures weren't in yet when I was writing this early today. But we know it got to at least minus 4 in Burlington, 8 below in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury and 10 below in Morrisville.

The cold extended easily into southern Vermont. Early this morning, Rutland, Springfield and Bennington were all at 4 below. 

Over in the traditional icebox of Saranac Lake, New York it got to 22 below. 

In this climate changed world it's harder than it once was to get this cold this early in the season. But it cam still happen. Obviously,.because we all experienced the joys of subzero cold this morning. 

The only recent example of this kind of cold this earlier in the season or earlier came in 2018, when Burlington got to 1 below on November 23, the earliest in the season subzero cold on record. Other than in 2018, it hasn't been this cold this early in Burlington since the notorious cold 1989. That's 36 years ago if you want me to do the math.   

Montpelier, with their 8 below this morning, set a record low for today's date. The old record was minus 7 in the frigid December of 1971. But the records at the Montpelier airport only go back to 1940. 

In places with longer term records, like Burlington, we missed the record low by a wide margin today.   The record low for today in Burlington was 12 below, set way back in 1886.  

COLD TO CONTINUE 

The worst is over for now, as weak, low-angle sunshine and a stirring of a south wind this afternoon will get us up to near 20 degrees.  That's still far below normal for this time of year, but at least it's not below zero.  Tonight will be "balmier" than last night, too.  Most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, which I suppose is an improvement over this morning.  

Ahead of the next system, we've got a damn heat wave for you on Saturday. By that I mean it could get into the low 30s. 

Enjoy while it lasts, because another Arctic blast is on the way after that. How fun! 

One weak cold front will come through Saturday night with a handful of snowflakes. That front will keep Sunday's high temperatures in the chilly mid-20s 

Then a stronger cold front arrives Sunday night with a packet of light snow. We'll have to watch and see if we get another round of snow squalls out of this. But this front doesn't look quite as able to generate snow squalls as yesterday's was.

 And if we do get the squalls, they'd come through before the Monday morning commute, not during it, so they wouldn't be as disruptive as yesterday's annoying mess on the roads. 

Highs will hold in just the teens again Monday, and most of us will probably go below zero again Monday night. I'm a bundle of joyous news this morning, aren't I?

Beyond that, things get a little more uncertain. Two small to medium sized storms look like they might come through here maybe around Wednesday and Friday.  The storms' paths are still in question. If they go by to our west, we might be in for some mixed precipitation. If they go to our south, but not too far to our south, we'll have more snow. 

It's still looking like most chances lean toward colder than normal temperatures most days at least to about Christmas. This is turning out to be the first old fashioned, wintry type December we've had in quite awhile. 

Trump Rolls Back Fuel Efficiency Standards, Latest Effort To Worsen Climate Change, It Almost Seems Like

Donald Trump, seen here overjoyed after some ICE raids,
is getting rid of fuel efficiency standards in cars,
offering false hope of "affordability" while
also doing his bit to worsen climate change.

Donald Trump says the United States is hotter than ever. 

I gotta hand it to him, he's right about that in one very unwelcome way. The climate of the U.S. - and the world - is toastier than it's been in maybe 100,000 years, thanks to fossil fuel-driven climate change. 

Trump is doing this by finding every way possible to make climate change even worse.  As we know, he's convinced it's a hoax, so why fight it, right?

The latest came on Wednesday with his announcement on fuel efficiency standards.

 As NBC News reports:

"President Trump on Wednesday said his administration would 'reset' fuel efficiency standards for passenger cars in an effort to put a lid on rising auto prices, as the administration battles inflation and an affordability crisis."

That's the way it's being framed anyway. And it's true we do have a big problem with inflation and affordability,. But if you're in the market for a car now or in the next few years, or if you just want a general break from high costs, you're out of luck on this one. 

But NBC continues:

"'The announcement is a shift in long-term fuel economy targets for model year 2031 vehicles,' said Mark Schemer, Cox Automotive's director of industry insights communications. 

'Those targets are being lowered, which may change automaker long-term strategy and product development plans and pricing, but will have little impact o prices near term,' he said."

Besides, there's evidence that the regulations make cars more expensive. A 2023 Consumer Reports analysis found that, after adjusting for inflation, vehicle prices didn't increase between 2003 through 2021, which is the period studied. This, even as average fuel economy went up by 30 percent and lifesaving technology was added to vehicles. 

Fuel economy standards also reduce costs over the lifetime of the vehicle because the car's owner ends up paying less for fuel than their neighbor who has that gas guzzler.  

The fuel efficiency standards were introduced in the Biden administration. Trump is always eager to ditch policies by any of his predecessors, whether those policies were good or bad. 

The standards Trump is getting rid of are called the Corporate Average Fuel Economy or CAFE standards, as NPR explains, "requires that the entire fleet of vehicles sold by a given automaker, on average, get more fuel-efficient over time. Automakers who fall short have previously needed to either pay hefty fines, or buy credits from a company that over performs on efficiency, like Tesla and other all-electric automakers."

The Biden rules called for vehicles to get 2% more efficient each year. Trump now would have the efficiency increase by 0.5% annually. 

The Trump administration had already eliminated the fines associated with the efficiency rules that he's not dumping.   

This is latest among many examples of Trump's efforts to cancel anything having to do with clean energy and EV's. He has gotten rid of a tax credit that people used to buy TVs; and ended a tax credit for installing next June, earlier than planned.   

Trump is also dropping a rule that sets tough standards for soot pollution. Back in the 2024, the final year of the Biden administration, which seems like it was centuries ago, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized a rule that set strict standard on soot pollution.  

The EPA was trying to reduce the fine particles in the air coming from cars, trucks and industry, because that stuff causes thousands of premature deaths a year. 

Probably a good idea, since on top of the cars and trucks, we're getting more and more wildfire smoke in recent years, which also has tons of fine particles that are dangerous to breathe. 

So, we are either getting new rules, or eliminating rules in what feels like an effort to create a hotter, more polluted world. Gee, that seems healthy! Next thing you know, bonkers Health and Human Services head honcho RFK Jr. will deem heat stroke and highly polluted air healthy, since he's already doing other things to endanger our well-being. 

Not surprisingly, environmentalists are not exactly thrilled by all this.

"In one stroke, Trump is worsening three of our nation's most vexing problems: the thirst for oil, high gas pump costs and global warming," said Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign for the Center for Biological Diversity. 

Previous estimates suggested the standards that Trump is getting rid of would have collectively saved Americans $23 billion in fuel costs over the years. 

As The Verge tells us, "The rules were also expected to cut gasoline use by 70 billion gallos through 2050. That would avoid 710 metric tons of planet-heating carbon dioxide pollution, equivalent to taking more than 165,6 million gas guzzling passenger vehicles off the road for a year."

Donald Trump will no longer be president one of these days. But this efficiency rollback, like so many things he has done, will hurt Americans and people around the world for perhaps generations. 

 

Drought Hangs On In Eastern Vermont, While Last Vestiges Of It Disappearing West

Drought conditions held firm in Northeastern Vermont
with this week's U.S Drought Monitor, but the
lower level abnormally dry conditions 
western Vermont continued to fade. 

The big drought, remember that?

It's been out of the headlines here in the Green Mountain State lately since the worst of it eased in the late autumn. It's hard to think there's drought while you're playing in the snow. .

But the drought is not dead yet.  Drought conditions remained unchanged in eastern Vermont, according to today's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. However, the last vestiges of the drought are slowly disappearing from western parts of the state

Forty-one percent of Vermont remains in drought, same as last week. The drought area is east of the Green Mountains north of about Springfield. Severe drought is hanging on in the Northeast Kingdom, and has not improved since last week. 

Last week, abnormally dry condition - a step below drought - continued in western Vermont except in western Chittenden and Franklin counties, where the dry conditions has officially ended. This week, the area that were no longer abnormally dry and had adequate moisture expanded into Addison and Rutland counties.  

Abnormally dry conditions also contracted out of Chittenden County and all but the extreme eastern edge of Franklin County. 

Precipitation was less than stellar in Vermont in the seven days ending on Tuesday, which is the period this week's Drought Monitor covers. But at least it did rain and snow some, so that helped a little. A thaw during that period also melted snow which soaked into the ground. 

Elsewhere, the Drought Monitor only detected minuscule improvements in the drought over in New Hampshire and Maine. New York, which has generally had a somewhat less severe drought than New England, showed some improvement. 

OUTLOOK

Any improvement will continue to be slow in Vermont and the rest of the North Country.  The outlook for the next week or so only calls for occasional chances of light snow. If you melt the expected snow down over the next seven days, you'd only get about a quarter inch of rain equivalent. 

Much below normal temperatures will continue to harden the ground
, which will help remaining drought conditions literally freeze in place 

What snow we do get will be banked until any off-season thaws we get later this winter, or will wait for spring. 

As Expected, Line of Heavy Snow Disrupted Morning Commute; Big Chill Roaring In

Interstate 89 in Colchester as the heavy snow
showers passed through this morning. If you 
look closely in upper left corner, it looks like
a car is off the road and in a ditch. 

It's another blustery, snowy morning in at least parts of Vermont this morning, as expected. Our Arctic front is coming though, and with it, some heavy snow showers. 

As of 7:30 a.m. a narrow band of heavy snow was in a southwest to northeast oriented band over Chittenden County and northern Vermont near the Green Mountains.

 It was heading southeastward, ,continuing to head down Interstate 89 toward Montpelier. The burst of heavy snow was approaching Waterbury as of 8:30 a.m. 

It wasn't quite considered a snow squall as of this writing, but it was close. Underneath this burst of snow, visibility is really bad and the roads got from clear to snowy in a flash.  

Traffic cams showed Interstate 89 going from near-perfect to snow covered and pretty gnarly within minutes when the heavy snow band arrives 

The snow doesn't stop after the almost-snow squall goes through. More snow showers continue after it, so road crews won't immediately be able to get road conditions pristine. It was still snowing at a decent clip here in St. Albans an hour and a half after that initial band of heavier snow came through. 

In fact, it looks like a second heavy band of snow was setting up over Franklin County, and that could cause more trouble across northwest and north-central Vermont between 8:30 am. and mid-morning. 

Bottom line, if it has already snowed where you are in northern Vermont, the road conditions won't get better fast. If it hasn't snowed yet where you are, you'll see a quick shift to those icy roads. 

The line of snow will reach southern and eastern Vermont later this morning, maybe very early in the afternoon down toward the southeast corner.

THE ARCTIC BLAST

Traffic cam image from this morning after the worst
of the sow had passed shows traffic backed up
on northbound Interstate 89 between South Burlington
and Colchester, due to reported crashes. 

After most of the snow clears, today will not be a nice one.  Gusty north winds up to 30 mph will blow the snow around, and the temperatures will crash. High temperatures near 30 this morning will be falling through the teens this afternoon. 

The forecast for tonight is unchanged. The winds will diminish a little, but still be strong enough to get wind chills as low as the teens below zero.  

Actual temperatures are still going to bottom out tomorrow morning within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This is going to be a particularly brutal cold snap up in the mountains. I'd forget the back country skiing this afternoon and tonight. 

If you want extremes, the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire is expecting lows overnight that could threaten the record low of 21 below.  Add in Mount Washington's usual extreme winds and that makes things outdoors unsurvivable up there.   

It stays cold tomorrow, then it'll marginally warm up Saturday, just in time for the next Arctic front. The worst of the next cold snap, with highs in the teens and lows in the single numbers above or below zero, will run from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. 

At this point, unless something changes that I don't yet know about, it should stay generally colder than normal most days around here at least through about December 20.

Snow Squalls To Screw Up Thursday Morning Vermont Commute, Long Cold Spell Still On Tap

Inside a St. Albans, Vermont snow squall in 2021.
At least some places in Vermont will have scenes
like this tomorrow morning 

The snow squall risk for Thursday we've been talking about all week still looks to be on schedule for tomorrow morning. 

That Arctic cold front  is expected to collide with a lake affect snow band that will be oriented southwest to northwest over northwest New York. This will at least temporarily add oomph to an already strong cold front. 

That means there's an excellent chance of snow showers and - very likely - snow squalls tomorrow morning. 

The timing of this is everything, since a lot of people will be headed to work or school when this blast of snow comes through. 

Sometime during the morning commute, this expected line of snow squalls will basically travel down Interstate 89 to Montpelier and beyond. The squalls will affect most of the rest of Vermont as well, but I'm highlighting the Interstate as it's the main travel corridor in Vermont. 

Plus, since Interstate 89 is a high speed highway, a sudden blast of near-whiteout conditions hitting fairly fast moving cars is a recipe for trouble. 

The goal might be to get to work or school before the squalls hit, or postpone travel until an hour or two after they pass. But pinning down the exact timing is tough. 

We have a general idea. As of late this afternoon, the guess is the line would hit St. Albans around 5 or 6 a.m., then make it down to Burlington and surrounding communities a little after 6 to around 7 a.m., give or take. By 9 or 10 a.m., the squalls might be somewhere in central Vermont, maybe Montpelier. 

Different computer models have different timing for the band of snow squalls. Two of the models I checked out late this afternoon has the line of snow squalls up by St. Albans at 6 a.m. Another has it between St.Albans and Burlington at that hour. Another computer model is fastest with the line, bringing it through Burlington and a little past Burlington by 6 a.m.

You'll want to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service tomorrow morning to get an idea of where they are. Snow squall warnings are very much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. Each warning covers a relatively small area, like one county or parts of adjacent counties. 

Even after the potential squalls go by, we're not out of the woods. There will still be some more snow showers for awhile. Though not as intense as snow squalls, they'll still cut visibility, and strong northwest winds will blow the snow around. 

PLUNGING TEMPERATURES

NOAA's 6 to10 day outlook, issued today,
places the greatest chance of colder 
than normal temperatures right over us. 

It feels too early for this, but forget about it getting above freezing for long while. 

Perhaps even in the banana belt towns in southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley. Normal highs in Burlington are in the mid to perhaps upper 30s this time of year. 

We won't see anything like that for at least 10 days, maybe more, I think. 

The initial temperature plunge coming up tomorrow and tomorrow night will arguably be the worst of the lot. 

It'll he near 30 degrees early tomorrow before the Arctic front hits. Temperatures will plunged through the 20s and teens during the days as blustery northwest winds drop the wind chill below zero for most of us. 

It still looks like Friday morning will dawn with temperatures within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This sounds like a load of fun, doesn't it?

After a cold Friday, it'll actually warm up a little Saturday. Compared to Friday, it will be tropical heat, as we might make it into the low 30s.

Then, it's another Arctic blast for early next week. And it looks like it wants to stay nippy at least into the middle of the month. NOAA's longer range forecasts indicate the spot in the nation with the greatest chance of below normal temperatures is right here in New England.   

I'm only bringing this up to jinx it. Maybe if I tout a long range forecast like this, we'll get some unexpected warmth. Just don't bet your next paycheck,on that. 

There will be occasional chances of snow, and whatever falls would obviously stick. But unless there's some sort of surprise, I don't see any big dumps on the horizon. 

Ice Barbie Exults Glorious Leader Trump For PreventIng U.S. Hurricanes Landfalls In 2025,

Kristi "Ice Barbie" Noem praised Donald Trump 
yesterday for keeping hurricanes away from the U.S.
My guess is he used a Sharpie to do that. 

Hurricane season ended last Sunday, and with that, we can rejoice that the United States was not hit by a hurricane this year for the first time since 2015. 

And to whom do we owe that great fortune? President Trump himself! 

We learned this via one of Trump's cabinet meetings, this one held on Tuesday. .You know the ones, where each cabinet secretary praise glorious leader to an extreme that would make North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jung-Un blush.  

Meanwhile, Trump snoozes. 

Which gets me to the hurricane story. None other that Homeland Secretary Kristi "Ice Barbie" Noem, said to "daddy" this gem. "Sir, you made it through hurricane season without a hurricane....Even you kept the hurricanes away. We appreciate that."

Well, I for one definitely appreciate that the U.S. was not hit by a hurricane this year. Gawd knows we have enough problems with adding hurricanes to the mix. 

Ice Barbie did not disclose how Trump kept the hurricanes away. My guess is with a Sharpie, but I don't know how exactly he pulled that off.   

I do see a scandal brewing Trump's Great Hurricane Accomplishment, though. Trump somehow failed to prevent that big flood during the July 4 weekend, the one that killed 135 people, several of whom were girls at a Christian summer camp. 

Christian summer camp? You would have thought the god-like Trump would have intervened, since he and his MAGA follows tell us they're such good Christians. 

There was, of course, trouble with hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean this year. Hurricane Melissa devastated parts of Jamaica in late October.  I don't think Trump had any influence on that storm, but what does he care? It's not as if he's into helping other nations anyway. 

Other hurricanes that did not hit the United States still caused trouble, like stirring up waves that washed seaside homes on the Outer Banks of North Carolina into the ocean. I guess Trump should have nudged those storms further out to sea, or made the go away with his Big Beautiful Bill, or some damn thing. 

Meanwhile, I'm not really happy with the weather here in Vermont. We're expecting snow squalls and bitterly cold air. Can't Trump push that away from us?

Oh, wait, we're a blue state. He's probably pulling that wintry weather our way as punishment. Even if he has to import it from Canada. What is the tariff rate on cold fronts? 

Quick Wednesday Morning Update: Snow Totals From Tuesday, Squalls Thursday, Then Bitter Cold

Traffic cam shot of snowy Route 7 in Shaftsbury 
Vermont Tuesday. That part of Vermont generally
got the most snow out of yesterday's storm. 

 I've got some very early appointments today, so just a brief update to start the day on yesterday's snow, and what's coming next. 

The snowfall yesterday pretty much matched the forecast with the most falling in southern Vermont. The Northeast Kingdom did well, too.

The highest totals I've seen so far are 10.6 inches in Manchester Center; 8.7 inches in Arlington; 8.5 inches in Landgrave, and 8 inches in Pawlet.

Northeast Kingdom totals included 8.6 inches in Lyndonville and several reports in the 6.5 to 7.3 inch range. 

In the Champlain Valley, it was mostly three to six inches, about as expected. Central Vermont generally had five or six inches. Again, that's pretty close to what the National Weather Service had forecast 

It stopped snowing hours ago, but it's cold out there this morning - mostly in the teens. I'm sure there are some slick spots on the roads. I can hear the scraping outside of state plow trucks trying to finish cleaning up. 

Today will be the calm before the next storm. It will be winter cold today, with everyone except maybe a few people in southern Vermont valleys staying below freezing

ARCTIC FRONT

We're still looking at that terrible cold front coming at us tomorrow morning with its band of snow squalls. The National Weather Service in South Burlington remains worried about tomorrow morning's commute in the Champlain Valley. 

It was bad enough with the gentle snow we had yesterday. There's a good chance this front will barrel in with a band of snow squalls.  These would cause abrupt, almost whiteout conditions, a quick one to two inches of snow and gusts to 30 mph. 

Yeah, I'm staying put at home tomorrow morning. I'll just huddle under blankets with Henry the Weather Dog. 

We're still looking at the timing of these, but so far, it looks like these might come through the Champlain Valley at between 7 and 9 a.m. or so.  The rest of Vermont might get these squalls, too, but at least they would come through between mid-morning and early afternoon, when the roads are a bit less busy. 

Winter is here with a vengeance, and it's not easing up anytime soon. I would say at least half of Vermont will be below zero by early Friday morning, and the rest of us will be damn close to it. 

I don't see any big storms on the horizon at this point. But I do see repeated cold fronts with reinforcing shots of nasty cold air at least through most of next week, if to beyond that. 

Snowstorm In Vermont Ending This Evening, Snow On Ground To Remain For Long Time

Vermont State Police posted this photo to Facebook
today. It was one of dozens of crashes they've dealt
with amid our day-long snowstorm. Roads remain
iffy through this evening, and probably 
into tomorrow morning. 

A few last narrow bands of fairly heavy snow were moving through Vermont as of 5 p.m. today, which will be the last harrah of our snowstorm. 

I see that there has been widespread four to five inches snow reports as of late this afternoon across Vermont. 

My place in St. Albans is lagging behind with 2.9 inches, as the drier air coming in from the northwest made an early appearance midafternoon. Burlington had 3.7 inches of snow as of 4:30 p.m. 

The snow had really tapered off by around 3:30 or so in most of northwest Vermont, which raised hopes of an easier commute this evening. But radar shows a final burst of moderate snow moving in, which is complicating the trip home. 

A more substantial band of heavier snow was extending across southern Vermont, running from Bennington County and going up toward White River Junction.

This area of somewhat heavier snow will probably help ensure the southeast half of Vermont will get the five to 10 inches of snow that had been forecast. 

This snow will keep the roads crappy for awhile yet.  As we mentioned early this afternoon, there had already been a bunch of wrecks. Vermont State Police provided the following update at around 4 p.m. today:

"Troopers have been busy keeping up with crashes, responding to 27 weather-related wrecks in the northern half of Vermont and 23 in the souther half from midnight to 2 p.m. Tuesday. Of the crashes, 17 took places on interstate highways, one with a reported injury, and 33 occurred on secondary roads, three with injuries."

I guarantee additional crashes this evening, unfortunately. Keep it slow and steady out there on the roads, folks. 

WHAT'S NEXT

Going forward through this evening, the remains snow that is falling in the northwest half of Vermont will quickly come to an end, shutting down northwest to southeast like we've been anticipating. It'll take longer to stop snowing in southeast Vermont. 

The northwest half of the state should be done with this between 6 to 8 p.m. or so. Central Vermont might have to wait until as late as 9 p.m. or so to see the snow stop. Southeastern Vermont will keep it going until around 11 p.m., give or take.

When you get up to go to work or school early tomorrow, you'll unfortunately still need to be a little careful on the roads. Yeah, I'm already sick of it, too. .It won't be snowing, but with temperatures falling into the teens to around 20, things will have frozen up pretty well. .

Be especially careful on bridges and overpasses. The ground is still kind of warm. That, and road salt, might make the overall road conditions not too bad. But the bridges won't have the benefit of the warm-ish ground underneath, so they'll have some black ice. Zipping along at 60 to 70 mph and then hitting the black ice at the bridges is not fun, let me tell you. 

Under partly sunny, chilly skies, the snow cleanup should finish up pretty well, even on the back roads. It'll be a fantastic day for winter sports statewide. 

THURSDAY TROUBLE

The next problem comes Thursday, with that Arctic cold front we've been talking about. That front still looks like it will come through during the morning, maybe early afternoon in southeastern Vermont. 

It should have a band of snow showers and snow squalls with it. That band of potential squalls could dump a quick inch of snow in a half hour to an hour. That means horrible visibility on the roads, which will quickly ice over.

Then, during the day, temperatures will crash amid frigid northwest gusts to over 30 mph. Look out for blowing snow, and keep your thickest winter coats ready, as wind chills will sink well below zero why nightfall.

Temperatures overnight will drop to within a few degrees either side of zero. That kind of weather is a bit earlier than usual in the season. Not record breaking, but still. 

The sharp contrast between the still relatively warm waters of Lake Champlain and the frigid air might create a few cold air funnels over the lake Thursday night and Friday. If you can brave the cold, you might want to get up very early Friday and check it out if you live nearby. 

It'll stay colder than we're used to at least into mid-month. 

I won't have a full report early tomorrow morning on the storm because I've got some appointments to take care of.  But I will do that later in the day and provide any update to the frigid weather that's going to blast down on us.