Will AI Fight Climate Change Or Make It Much Worse? Hot Debate On The Topic Now

AI is obviously the Next Big Thing.

Illustration from Appen 

Like it or not, it's invading all aspects of our lives. And of course, AI will have an enormous effect on other Big Things. Like climate change.  

Whether or not AI is good or bad, there was certainly a lot of interest in it at the recently concluded COP30 sessions.

That's the big annual UN shindig where countries from around the world try to come up with agreements on how to fix climate change. 

Usually, including this year, they didn't make much progress. And, the United States sat this one out all because our Glorious Leader says climate change is a hoax. 

But back to AI and climate. 

The Associated Press said they counted at least 24 sessions related to AI during the conference. 

They included using AI to help neighboring cities share energy, and a ceremony for the first AI for Climate Action Award for a project on water scarcity and climate variability in Laos.

All the tech bros at the converse are telling anyone that will listen that AI will solve climate change. Or at least make it less bad.  Or maybe help us deal with it better. They give examples. For instance, it can increase the efficiency of electric grids. 

AI can help farmers more accurately predict whether to save their crops. It can design buildings, roads and other infrastructure to withstand ever-increasing weather extremes. 

AI can also directly fight climate change. It's being used to detect methane leaks. Methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. 

As NPR reported back in January, 2024 that methane leaks were seldom found and monitored. Now, scientists and companies use AI daily to find methane emissions by by interpreting enormous amounts of satellite images.   

That data is now used by the United Nations to verify the accuracy of corporation and government reports on methane emissions. 

Forest managers use AI to detect forest fires before they get out of hand. The technology can also ensure conditions are right for controlled burns to prevent future huge forest fires 

These are just some examples of how AI could save the world from a climate catastrophe, goes the theory. Or something like that. 

OR IS AI KILLING US 

It takes a TON of energy to run the data centers that keep AI afloat. So maybe AI will just make climate change even worse.

Per the Associated Press: 

"Climate groups, however, are sounding the alarm about AI's growing environmental impact, with its surging needs for electricity and water for powering searches and data centers They say an AI boom without guardrails will only push the world farther off track from goals set by 2015 Paris Agreement to slow global warming."

We'll probably blow past that 1.5 degree Celsius goal with or without sincere climate action. But AI might make us go far beyond that goal.

AI relies on data centers that use tremendous amounts of electricity, Data centers accounted for 1.5 percent of the world's electricity consumption in 2024. Since 2017, electricity consumption in data centers has grown by 12 percent, more than four times faster than the total rate of electricity consumption. 

Since a pretty big share of electricity is still generated via fossil fuel generation, data centers contribute to climate change. 

According to cornell.edu:

"Cornell researchers have used advanced data analytics - and, naturally, some AI, too - to create a state-by-state look at that environmental impact. The team found that, by 2030, the current rate of AI growth would annually put 24 to 44 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the emissions equivalent of adding 5 to 10 million cars to U.S. roadways. 

It would also drain 731 to 1,125 million cubic meters of water per year - equal to the annual household water usage of 6 to 10 million Americans. The cumulative effect would put the AI industry's net-zero emissions targets out of reach."

Sounds really bad. But then again, maybe not that bad?

Says cornell.edu again:

"On the upside, the study also outlines an actionable roadmap that would use smart siting, faster grid decarbonization and operational efficiency to cut these impacts by approximately 73% (carbon dioxide) and 86% (water) compared with worst-case scenarios."

So, the bottom line is AI is maybe one of the biggest new thing of all big new things we've ever had. AI could let us swim or make us sink. 

Only the future will tell us. And the future might come sooner than we think. 

First Warmer Than Averages Temperatures In 2 Weeks Coming To Vermont, But Don't Bring Out The Swimsuits

Typically blah November this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont with still some snow on the ground. 
After a long cool stretch, we might have a couple
of warmer than normal days coming up. 

 Today has a shot at being the first nominally warmer than average day in Vermont - at least as measured in Burlington -since November 8. 

I haven't been able to check how long it's been since we've had that long a stretch of below normal readings. But this stretch comes with caveats. 

You've heard me say this a million times already but I still have to point out this the "new normal," which is based on the average temperatures between 1990 and 2020.  

By those decades, climate change had already taken hold, so "normal" temperatures these days are above what we would have expected through most of the 20th century. 

Had this November occurred in say, 1980, some days in the stretch from November 8 to today would have been slightly warmer than average. 

Even though we're basing comparisons on the "new normal" this month has provided us with the first sustained chillier than average spell in a long time. This will probably be the coolest month relative to average since at least November, 2023, but more likely since January, 2022.  

Only four of the last 24 months have been cooler than our climate changed new warmer average.  

So, a November that was only a little cooler than the historical average seemed frigid to us climate change warriors. 

OUTLOOK

Now, we get to enjoy three or so sort of warmer than average days coming up before it turns chillier again. 

Of course, warmer than average isn't all that toasty for late November. 

Today might or might not get above average for the date. It depends on how fast this morning's thick overcast and patchy fog lifts into partly sunny skies. If it clears up by late morning or noon, we could get up to 40 or a little more. If it stays cloudy, we're probably stuck in the 30s. 

Tomorrow, we'll get into some south winds ahead of the next storm. That storm won't cause a lot of havoc for us, but will bring quite a squirt of warm air toward us.  Many of us will get into the mid-40s tomorrow, and into the low and mid 50s Wednesday. 

We'll have to watch Wednesday, as there could be some surprises with the temperature. If things work out just right, we could have readings near 60 degrees.

The storm will bring two waves of rain through Vermont. One Tuesday night, one late Wednesday night and early on the day on Thanksgiving. The rain won't be especially heavy, but it will reach even the mountain summits. 

A cold front will come through early on Thanksgiving Day and we'll get into some blustery weather.  Thanksgiving itself won't be too cold amid the scattered rain and mountain snow showers. The weather shouldn't get in the way for you to get  over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house. Or wherever the hell you're going. 

Any rain showers in the valleys will flip to snow Thursday evening.  There won't be much accumulation, except in the mountains. But still, there might be some not so great road conditions here and there Thanksgiving night. So if you're blasting your F-250 through the mountain roads Thursday night, just remember you're not invincible. 

Is getting up way before dawn on Black Friday to wait in cold, windy parking lots to barge into stores for blockbuster deals still a thing?  If it is, bundle up if you're into that sort of adventure. It'll indeed be cold and windy with snowflakes blasting through the air. 

The not-terribly extreme cold snap will be brief, lasting through Saturday night.Then it looks like it will briefly warm up Sunday and Monday as another modest storm comes through. 

After that, chances are we'll get into an extended cold spell again in December. Not sure on that yet, as long range forecasts are sometimes a little shady. But for the first time in years, we might have two consecutive truly cooler than average months in years. 

Even so, climate change rages on. Going forward, most months will be warmer than that your parents used to experience. 

Could A Small But Rapidly Disintegrating Antarctic Glacier Climate Change Danger Signal?

Hektoria glacier in Antarctica was largely reduced
to debris ice after it abruptly retreated at a record pace.
Photo by Naomi Ochwat

When you think of glaciers, and how they melt, you probably picture a slow, drip, drip, and maybe a little stream or river running out of the edge of it. 

You'd think it would take years, even decades for most of a glacier to wilt or disappear under pressure from climate change. 

But one glacier in Antarctica, the Hektoria Glacier, is breaking speed records for eroding, says a team of researchers led by Naomi Ochwat, a University of Colorado glaciologist.

Per the Washington Post;

"More than five miles of glacial ice in Antarctica vanished in only two months, retreating 10 times as fast as the previous record, with possible implications for the stability of other glaciers and the pace of sea-level rise on a warming planet."

 Hektoria Glacier is on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and is pretty small compared to most glaciers in Antarctica. It'sabout the size of Philadelphia.  The peninsula is that finger of land that comes off Antarctica and points toward South America, like a frigid finger seeking out warmth away from the Antarctic ice cap. 

But the fact that it retreated so fast makes scientists wonder about other, much bigger glaciers. Can they, too, disintegrate as fast as Hektoria? Was Hektoria a canary in a coal mine, or since this is Antarctica, a penguin in a coal mine?

That would be a problem, as glaciers that are on land add to global sea level rise as they melt. A rapid melt might accelerate those rising sea levels beyond what many scientists already expect.

 It's already bad enough, as storms are increasingly bringing sometimes serious storm surges to coastlines. We also already have "sunny day floods" when tides are particularly high when the pull of the moon is just right. 

If all of Antarctica's ice melted, sea levels would rise by about 190 feet. Of course, much of Antarctica's ice is here to stay, but even if a small percentage its glaciers go bye-bye, sea coasts worldwide would be in big, big trouble. 

Here's how the Hektoria Glacier disintegrated, as WaPo tells us

"Heckoria is a tidewater glacier, meaning it flows across land before ending in the sea. After rising temperatures reduced the amount of sea ice in the bay abutting the glacier, waves broke down ice fastened to the coastline that had protected Hektoria. 

And, without that buffer, the floating end of the glacier began cracking and shedding icebergs into the ocean."

Once the glacier lost its floating portion, the rest of it thinned, and a gently sloping plain underneath the glacier let ocean water to seep in. The ice bobbed up with the water getting beneath it, so it broke up quickly. 

As usual with these things, there's disagreement over whether this is a one-off or if many other glaciers are on the brink of collapsing. 

There's something called the grounding zone. It's the spot beneath the glacier's ice where the ground ends and it starts to float on ocean water. 

The scientists looking into this don't exactly know where the Hektoria Glacier grounding zone is. If the grounding zone is further inland than the researchers figure, the glacier ice was already on water, making it more prone to breaking up. 

Ochwat said seismic sensors detected a bunch of little earthquakes when Hektoria was in retreat and falling apart. That probably means the ice was resting on bedrock. "Because that ice is touching the Earth, we get earthquakes," she said. 

The Washington Post said Ochwat is going to look at other Antarctic glaciers to see if they're also on slick, shallow beds that are vulnerable to fast retreats. 

The reason that people are worried about other glaciers is, of course, climate change. 

As CNN tells us:

"Hektoria's retreat was heavily influenced by climate change (Ockwat) said. The loss of sea ice in the ocean next to Hektoria, believed to have been driven by ocean warmth, allowed wave swells to reach the fast ice and break it up, leaving the glacier exposed to ocean forces."

As sea ice continues to decline due to climate change, more glaciers might be poised to fall apart like Hektoria did. 

Hektoria is "a smaller cousin to some truly gigantic - I mean the size of the island of Britain - glaciers in Antarctica that could conceivably go through the same process, as this whole evolution of the ice sheets on Earth evolves with global warming," Bethan Davies, a glacial geologist at Newcastle University told CNN. 

 There's another glacier in Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, which some overwroughtly call the "Doomsday Glacier" contributes 4% of overall sea level rise. Another one the Pine Island Glacier is Antarctica's fastest melting glacier. 

The bottom line: Antarctica makes climatologists nervous, and this new knowledge isn't exactly Zoloft  for scientist's climate change anxiety. 

We need to make sure scientists keep studying the hell out of Antarctica and its ice and its melt rate. What goes on in Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica.   

A Little Snow Today In Vermont, Then A Short Mild Interval Until Thanksgiving

Some puffy clouds behind the trees on a Saturday that
gave us a chance to see some rare November Vermont sun

 The sun came out Saturday afternoon which was a nice diversion from the usual Vermont cloudy skies. 

The overcast has returned and as of 8:30 this morning, some light snow was getting ready to move in. 

Relax, though, this won't be a biggy. Light, occasional snow will come down today and tonight, and some of that snow will probably mix with a few cold rain drops. 

Accumulations will end up being a dusting for most of us, maybe an inch in a few places. Some of the ski areas could grab two, three, maybe even four inches. 

After that, we're in for a "warm" spell, but that's relative. Temperatures will be close to normal, with a spike to above normal readings on Wednesday. That's a change from most of this month. Saturday was the 14th day in a row in which it was cooler than average in Burlington. 

By "warmer" I only mean highs with a few degrees of 40 on Monday and Tuesday.  Nights will be mild, too. They'll stay in the mid and upper 20s for most of us, and in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. I know that seems chilly, but we're knocking on the door of December. You can't expect much. 

Snow is moving back in today but it will be light.
However, a few inches might pile up in the 
mountains by tomorrow morning. 

A modest storm will affect us Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it won't affect your plans for Thanksgiving travel much. 

Mostly because it will almost all come down as rain. That's a bummer for the ski areas, but the roads won't be glare ice, anyway. 

We won't get all that much rain, either, maybe a quarter to a third of an inch. There's still room for forecast adjustments, so it might end up being slightly different than that, but you get the picture. 

Thanksgiving itself will probably be blustery. A cold front will have come through early in the day. The cold air will sort of lag behind the front a bit. So we'll end up with average daytime temperatures, something close to 40 degrees. The wind will blast out of the west with gusts to 30 oe 35 mph.  A few scattered rain and snow showers will blow through from time to time. 

The northern and central Green Mountains have a shot at several inches of snow Thursday night and Friday as lake effect snow and somewhat moist west winds generate some pretty good snow showers in the high elevations 

Low elevations should have lighter snow showers Thanksgiving night and Friday. 

Enjoy the lull in weather excitement. It's still looking like the weather pattern will become rather volatile as we get into December. That means lots of potential storms to watch. To make things interesting, the first blast of true Arctic air looks to come into the U.S. around the first of the month. 

So far, at least, the worst of the frigid air looks like it might mostly stay to our west - hitting the Rockies and Plains hardest. 

Tehran, Iran Latest Big City On Verge Of Running Out Of Water In Drought

Iran is enduring a severe drought and some areas
including Tehran, population nearly 10 million
could run out of water. 

 Millions of people in Iran, including the capitol Tehran, are faced with the prospect of running out of water soon due to an extreme drought.  

According to the BBC

"Iran - especially its capital, Tehran - is facing an unprecedented drought this autumn, with rainfall at record lows and reservoirs nearly empty. Officials are pleading with citizens to conserve water as the crisis deepens."

President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that if there is not enough rainfall soon, Tehran's water supply could be rationed. But he said that even rationing might not be enough to prevent a disaster."

BBC again:

"Iran's energy minister, Abbas Ali Abed, has warned the situation could soon force authorities to cut water supplies. 'Some nights we might decrease the water flow to zero,' he said."

Of course, the logistics of evacuating Tehran is a bit much. The city has about 9.8 million people. So where would they go?

Here's how bad it is:

Latian Dam, one of Tehran's main water sources, is down to 10 percent of its capacity. Another reservoir, Karaj Dam, which sends water to both Tehran and Alborz provinces is just as bad. 

The Karaj Dam at last report was holding just eight percent of capacity, and that is "dead water" meaning it can't be used for public consumption. 

Some residents say on many days they find their taps dry already.   NBC News describes one man,, Irfan Ensani, 39, returning home from work at one of his two jobs to find no water in the house. 

"We didn't have water for three days. The pressure was so low that nothing came out," he said.

Iran has been in drought for six years. Climate change is probably exacerbating the dry conditions. Especially since summers recently have brought record high temperatures, which accelerates evaporation. 

Temperatures rose to as high as 122 degrees in Iran last summer. The heat led to power outages even as reservoirs were going dry.  Rain is supposed to pick up in the autumn in Iran, but this fall there has been the driest in 50 years. 

Iran's tall mountains aren't helping, either. There's practically no snow up there. Intellinews.com reports: 

"According to the newly released statistics, the volume of snow recorded across the country is 98.6% lower than the same period in 2024 and 99.8% below the 120-year average -figures the experts describe as 'unprecedented decline.'" 

The so-called rainy season began earlier this month, and there was very little rain until the last couple of days. Despite the drought,  rain was heavy enough Monday to cause flooding in some western parts of Iran. It's too soon to tell whether that heavy rain will help ease the drought crisis. 

The Iranian government also resorted to cloud seeding in recent days in an effort to coax rain from any cloud that appeared in the skies.  

Climate change might have had a hand in this drought, but the government of Iran is very much to blame, as NBC and other news outlets point out. 

As NBC reports:

"The prolonged drought along with  years of overconsumption, an inefficient agricultural sector and mismanagement - including decades building mega-dams of questionable utility - have led to the problem, analysts say."

Ali Nazemi, an associate professor at Concordia University in Montreal was among a group of researchers who in 2021 warned Iran about its water use.

The warning was in a 2021 peer-reviewed study in the journal Scientific Reports.  The research was said Iran was overdrawing groundwater in four-fifths of Iran. This was causing Iran's land to sink, and its soil was getting more salty, and its salt lakes were disappearing. 

The paper said that the brewing crisis had the potential for "irreversible impacts on land and environment, threatening country's water, food, social-economic security." 

The study used publicly available data for Iran's Ministry of Energy to assess the nation's groundwater situation. "After the paper was published, they took the data sets out of public access, "Nazemi said.

The drought should not have come as a surprise to the Iranian government, either. Iranian media reported in 2021 that the World Meteorological Organization was predicting much drier and hotter conditions in Iran for the following five years.  

So, the government is just burying its head in the sand. At least there's plenty of sand to do the with Iran, I suppose.

Unrest has also contributed to the water shortage. Unrest is probably also going to be a result of Iran's dry taps. 

Ali Abadi also blamed part of the water crisis on Iran's 12-day war with Israel. Videos after an Israeli strike on a northern Tehran neighborhood showed flooding, suggesting water infrastructure could have been damaged enough to drain reservoirs more, the BBC reported.

Tempers are rising among Iran's citizens, too, raising fears of civil unrest. Students at Tehran's Al-Zahra University have already protested against the water shortages. And there was some violence over water in Iran's Khuzestan province. 

If things continue to get worse, the unrest could spiral way out of control. 

Tehran is the latest big city to almost completely run out of water. 

Cape Town, South Africa nearly ran out of water in 2018. Sao Paulo, Brazil almost went completely dry in 2014. 

Climate change is likely increasing the severity of droughts. I imagine we'll see more cities run out of water in the coming years. If such crises are mismanaged like Iran's has been, these dry taps could lead to many, many deaths. Either through lack of water or violence caused by that lack of water. 

 

U.S. Sat Out Major UN Climate Conference, But Lobbyists Swarmed It

The United States is AWOL from the UN climate
talks in Brazil, while fossil fuel lobbyists
are there big time. 

The United States embarrassingly sat out this year's 30th annual UN Climate Change Conference - known as COP30 -  which surprised nobody, given Donald Trump's horror at anyone who even thinks climate change is a thing.  

But that fact is to our detriment, since the United States had no say in the kinds of climate change fighting prescriptions that might emerge from the conference.

Beside the U.S., the only other nations not at COP30 are Afghanistan, Myanmar and San Marino, notes Carbon Brief. 

The absence of the United States is striking because the nation is also the world's largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases. 

Overall, a total of 56,000 people from 193 countries attended the conference, which is the second largest crowd at any of any past conference. 

Unsurprisingly, this year's largest delegation comes from Brazil, since that's the nation hosting the whole thing.  The next largest delegations, in order of size are China (again no surprise) and of all countries, Nigeria, Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo. 

The annual COP meetings have become this huge thing, attended by at least 50,000 in each of the past four years. Most rounds of this conference drew few than 20,000 annual, except the 2015 iteration in Copenhagen and the 2021 gathering in Paris. 

The Paris COP was the year the world decided to try and limit planetary warming to 1,5 degrees of the 20th century average.  

This year, the United States backed out of the international agreement to try and limit the warming to 1.5 degrees. 

Of course, we'll probably blow past the 1.5 degree goal  anyway, as emissions continue to rise. 

At last report, delegates at COP30 were still struggling to come up with an agreement to set a global path away from the use of fossil fuels. But a draft deal doesn't mention coal, oil and gas, which are almost the entire reason we have a climate change problem. 

Which might be related to this tidbit from The Guardian, which reports that more than 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists have been granted access to COP30. That's more than every single country's delegation aside from the host Brazil. 

The group Kick Big Polluters Out says one in every 25 participants at this big meeting is a fossil fuel lobbyist. 

Within the next couple of days, we'll see how well all those fossil fuel lobbyists did. Stay tuned!  

Holding Our Breath Until Winter REALLY Hits In Vermont

Snow is finally almost melted away in my yard in St.
Albans, Vermont after the storm 12 days ago. For the
next few days, we'll be in a never never land that
is past autumn but not quite winter. 

We're getting a semi-break from winter between now, as we brace for a possible, uncertain first Arctic blast of the season sometimes in the opening week of December.

Maybe. 

It looks increasingly likely that somebody in the Lower 48 in the United States is going to suffer through subzero Arctic cold and brutal wind chills once we get into the final month of the year. 

Whether any of that nonsense will affect us here in Vermont is still very open to debate.

Before we get there, we will be stuck in a sort of no man's land that's not really late autumn, and not really winter, either. During that time, the forces of winter will be adjusting themselves, getting ready for their first frigid act of the season.

For us, that means variable weather.  Since the mountains got all that snow, some Vermont ski resorts opened a week earlier than they anticipated. Lifts are going this weekend at places like Jay Peak Resort, Stowe Mountain Resort,  Sugarbush and Okemo.

And of course Killington opened earlier this month. 

In our holding our breath period as Thanksgiving approaches, the weather outlook is mixed for those ski resorts. And the rest of us for that matter. 

Today will be a typical late November day. That means quite a few clouds, some periods of sun, with daytime temperatures near 40. 

The approaching winter will throw down a few snowflakes tomorrow afternoon and night. Some valleys could see a dusting to an inch of snow. Maybe the ski areas will get a couple inches.

The weather pattern is active, so the next storm in the pipeline should arrive Wednesday. It looks like it'll bring along a squirt of warm weather for a change. Temperatures should get up to 50 degrees or so in many valley spots. The mountains, unfortunately, should get some rain. Not a huge amount, but rain and thawing.

Here's where the change to winter starts. It's going to be a slow, uneven process. The first of the cold fronts should come through at the end of the week. 

That means some light snows starting on Thanksgiving and into the weekend. It'll be cold, too, with highs near the freezing mark. Chilly, but not that unusual for the end of November.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

Once you get beyond a week or so, it's hard to make an accurate forecast. You can only do a broad brush kind of prediction. 

It looks like the increasingly strong cold outbreaks might want to enter the United States in the northwestern Plains, places like Montana and North Dakota. Then the cold air sweeps east. 

By the time that type of cold air gets here, it will have modified some. Also, storms will form on the leading edge of these cold outbreaks. At this point, it's impossible at this point to know exactly where these storms will go, and how strong they might be.

Their tracks could mean the difference between skier delight snow dumps or disappointing schmutz. But at least we'll keep getting some type of precipitation to keep eating away at the lingering vestiges of drought. 

A lot of factors seem to be coming together to bring a cold December to much of the United States. We in Vermont will need to stay tuned to see how much we share in that likely chilly regime. 

Acting FEMA Director Who Didn't Know We Had Hurricane Season Leaves To Celebrate Hurricane Season End

David Richardson, the hands-off acting head
of FEMA is leaving the position at the end
of this month. But FEMA is still in 
crisis big time, thanks to the 
Trump administration. 

FEMA's acting director David Richardson, who alleged didn't know the U.S. has a hurricane season, has decided to resign at the end of hurricane season, which hits on November 30. 

Per Washington Post

"Richardson, who spent about six months as the acting head of the nation's response agency, has kept a low profile and is known for often being inaccessible, including during the early hours of the flood disaster in Texas over the Fourth of July weekend. 

In recent months, five current agency employees said Richardson spent little time in daily operations meetings and shrank away from the role - one that typically demands the administrator be easily reachable. The staffers, like others interviewed of this story and previous coverage, spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation."

Other reports also give a damning view of Richardson's alleged leadership style.

Per CNN:

"Some officials describe his leadership as brash and unpredictable, with a penchant for shouting and swearing. On one occasion, he asked staff whether disaster funds cold be steered to Republican areas but not Democratic ones, a FEMA official who heard the comments firsthand said.

At times, Richardson prohibited staff from bringing cell phones and computers into meetings. He often kept his own phone out of sight and rarely used email, leaving senior FEMA leaders struggling to reach him and making even basic communication a constant challenge."

NEXT FOR FEMA

Richardson reflected the Trump administration's disdain for FEMA. As noted, he was pretty much AWOL for at least part of this summer's huge Texas flood disaster. 

Early in his tenure, he also appeared to state that he did not know the United States has a hurricane season. The fact he decided to call it quits at the end of hurricane season is rich. 

FEMA is obviously critical when it comes to disaster response in the United States, deploying responders in the immediate aftermath of a catastrophe to feed, house and literally save survivors. The agency also is supposed to help with long term recovery aid. 

The agency is getting more crucial as weather extremes and disasters increase in the face of climate change. 

Meanwhile, FEMA has long needed an overhaul, as individual victims, municipalities and states often report walls of bureaucracy when attempting to receive aid for rebuilding and adaptation after the immediate crisis is over. 

That might not be the focus, though. Trump during the beginning of his later term at first thought just getting rid of FEMA entirely was a boffo idea. That sort of morphed into keeping FEMA, but slashing staff and resources. And making states responsible for a much greater share of disaster response and recover. 

The trouble with that is most states don't have the money or resources to handle big disasters. So people whose homes are destroyed in a hurricane, flood or wildfire would more likely be out of luck and on their own. 

As it stands now, everybody is now waiting on a review council to come up with recommendations for FEMA. The council, commissioned by Trump and headed by Department of Homeland Security Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem.

With Noem in charge, what could go wrong?  We'll let you know when the report by the review council is released. 

There's already signs of discord with this review panel. Most of the panel has reportedly concluded FEMA should become more powerful and autonomous, making FEMA a cabinet level agency,

But Noem wants to keep FEMA under the control of her Department of Homeland Security. She also wants to remove FEMA from its direct role in disaster relief, and turning it into more of a grant-making department, according to the Washington Post. 

 Already, FEMA is a mess. FEMA has lost a quarter of its employees. In August, a whole bunch of employees wrote a public letter warning their leadership was substandard and harming FEMA's mission to manage emergencies. 

Also, Noem still has a rule in which she must sign off on each expense over $100,000. Which slows down responses to emergencies.

Meanwhile, FEMA's current chief of staff, Karen Evans will step into Richardson's role. 

In a statement, the department said they appreciated Richardson for his "dedicated service and wish continued success in his return to the private sector." 

Or something like that.   

Meanwhile, as U.S. citizens try to recover from disasters that have hit this year, and brace for the inevitable new calamities, we all know the U.S. government no longer has our backs. 

 

Hurricane Melissa Had World Record Wind Speed, Could Be Part Of Terrifying Trend

A dramatic view from inside the eye of Hurricane 
Melissa near Jamaica. Photo was taken for a hurricane
hunter plane. One of those planes dropped an 
instrument that detected a 252 mph wind gust
within the storm. That gust was just verified
as the strongest on record detected in a hurricane.

 It looks like Hurricane Melissa achieved at least one world record for hurricanes. 

A weather measuring instrument called a dropsonde was tossed into the hurricane from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter airplane shortly before storm made landfall in Jamaica back on October 28. 

The dropsonde recorded a wind gust of 252 mph on its way down through the storm. 

The 252 mph gust was measured about 820 feet above the ocean. 

This beats the old record for highest wind recorded by a dropsonde in a tropical system. 

That previous world record for the highest gust was 248 mph from a dropsonde that descended through Typhoon Mega in the western Pacific Ocean back in 2010. 

CONFIRMING THE DATA

A dropsonde, is a device NOAA Hurricane Hunter airplane personnel drop into the maw of hurricanes. Dropsondes have a small parachute attached and they take  somewhere between two and four readings per second before splashing into the ocean. They usually throw a bunch of dropsondes into a hurricane pretty much all at once to get a holistic look under the hood of the storm. , 

While on its way down, dropsondes grab information on air pressure, temperatures, and wind, and relay that back to the hurricane hunter plane.

The hurricane hunters knew right away that the dropsonde recorded that 252 mph gusts. But NOAA and other scientists, as they always do, wanted to double check the data to make sure there wasn't something wrong with the dropsonde. 

According to a press release from U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) it took until this week to verify the information because NCAR scientists needed to verify the data to make sure there was no glitch with the dropsonde. 

As CBS reported, researchers went through the numbers using quality control software. They also confirmed the 252 mph gust was physically possible, given Hurricane Melissa's strength and structure.

The careful review was necessary because errors can happen with dropsonde data.  A dropsonde that fell through Hurricane Katrina in 2005. A dropsonde measurement in that storm when it was in the Gulf of Mexico recorded a gust higher than that seen in Melissa.

However, researchers found a lot of problems with that Katrina measurement so it was discarded. 

RECORD BIG MELISSA

At the time the 252 mph gust was measured while Hurricane Melissa was officially a storm with sustained winds of 185 mph.  It made landfall in Jamaica at that strength. Damage in Jamaica where winds were strongest looked like they were caused by an EF-4 tornado. 

The gusts might indicate that Hurricane Melissa might have been even a little stronger than that 185 mph at landfall. 

After each hurricane, meteorologists examine the data from the storms and publish a full, detailed analysis. Those analyses often update the strength of hurricanes that differ from original reports.  

Before this 252 mph gusts was verified, Hurricane Melissa was already a record breaker. When Melissa made landfall those 185 mph (as it stands now, anyway) sustained winds ties the record for strongest winds for an Atlantic Ocean hurricane making landfall.

Only two storms the Labor Day Hurricane in Florida back in 1935 and Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019. 

The central air pressure in Hurricane Melissa reached 892 millibars. That's another way of measuring the strength of a hurricane. With that pressure, Melissa tied the record for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane since that 1935 hurricane in Florida. 

 As the Washington Post tells us, Hurricane Melissa also set an informal record for the most eyewall lightning observed by satellites. Before landfall, the satellites detected 700 flashes per minute, or 11 per second. 

Most hurricanes don't generate much lightning. When there is lightning in a hurricane, it's a sign of an extremely intense hurricane, or one that is strengthening.  

SCARY STORM, SCARY TREND

Josh Morgerman, very likely the most prolific and expert hurricane chaser in the world, has been in the middle of 84 hurricanes and typhoons so far. He was in Jamaica for Melissa. 

He wrote: "Melissa's winds were absolutely ferocious - the most intense I've witnessed in 84 hurricanes. And the resultant damage was spectacular. This was a truly rare specimen."

Morgerman continued in his technical report on the hurricane, where he monitored the storm in a struck hotel building:

"At the height of the storm, the whiteout was 100% and the screaming sound was so hard that others in the hotel kitchen were putting their hands over their ears. This aside the explosive gustiness of the winds blasted the building, caused one's ear drums to pull painfully, so that the author was often holding or rubbing his own ears"

Morgerman said many trees that were somehow left standing were completely defoliated. In some cases the bark was ripped off.  Wood frame homes were completely flattened, concrete buildings partly collapsed and paint was blasted off some buildings and cars.

Gawd, that had to be absolutely terrifying. 

Just a reminder, though the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean doesn't seem to be increasing, the number of super powerful ones are increasing. And those top end storms seem to be getting stronger than ever. 

There's even talk of creating a Category 6 for hurricanes. Right now, the strength chart for hurricanes go from Category 1 to 5.

Climate change might well be making horrible experiences like what Jamaica went through ever more likely.  And inevitably, some of these will crash into the United States.

The records being set by Hurricane Melissa are for sure a cautionary tale.  

Vermont Drought Eased At Faster Pace Last Week; Northeast Overall Improved

Latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Vermont, 
issued yesterday. Definitely some improvement.
Extreme drought now down to less intense
severe drought in Northeast Kingdom
Much of Vermont is out of drought,
mostly just "abnormally dry" --yellow
color. Much of the central and northern 
Champlain Valley is no longer in drought at all,

 Drought conditions improved quite a bit in Vermont over the past week, according to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Report, which was released Thursday. 

For the most part, the intensity of the drought took one step down for almost the entire state. 

The area of extreme drought that covered about 25 percent of the state in the Northeast Kingdom improved to severe drought. It's the first time since September 9 that no regions in the Green Mountain State were in extreme drought. 

Severe drought in central Vermont eased to just moderate drought.

 Most of western and far southern Vermont went from moderate drought to just "abnormally dry" which means it's still a little bit parched but  a full blown drought has disappeared. 

And, for the first time since August 12, at least a small part of Vermont is no longer even abnormally dry. 

Most of the central and northern Champlain Valley was abnormally dry last week, but this week, that same region is hunky-dory. Adequate ground water, normal stream flows.  Nothing to worry about in terms of dryness. 

The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods in Vermont, but we are in much better shape than we were a month ago. Keep those rain dances going, though. 

The drought in Vermont seems to have peaked in mid-October and has been improving ever since.  About 41 percent of the state was still in drought with this week's report. That's the lowest percentage since August 19. 

The improvement can easily be seen on Lake Champlain. On October 19, the lake reached its lowest level of the drought at 92.81 feet. People could walk to places like Law and Mosquito islands and keep their feet dry. 

The lake has risen to 94.5 feet as of Wednesday. That's just an inch or two below normal for the date. 

NORTHEAST IMPROVEMENT

Elsewhere in the Northeast, the drought generally improved. Especially across northern New England, and western and northern parts of New York.

New Hampshire this week had no areas in severe drought for the first time since September 2.  About 78 percent of the Granite State is still in drought this week, but that's the lowest percentage since August 12.  

Extreme drought in Maine is greatly reduced, but it's still lingering along a small area of the sea coast near Portland. 

Of all the states in the North Country, New York is doing the best. Only a third of the Empire State remains in drought. 

OUTLOOK

The improvement in Vermont drought condition will probably slow or even briefly stall over the next week as little rain or snow is expected. 

A cold front that had been expected to give us a shot at moderate rain or a mix today is now likely to only deposit very light amounts. Some of us won't see any rain at all.

But starting nest week, it appears the weather pattern might start getting active again.  Moderate rain looks like it might accompany a brief warmup next week. Even so, only a quarter to a half inch of rain is in the forecast for the next seven days. 

After that, things have a colder look heading into December. But that colder pattern looks active with frequent chances of precipitation.  Since it will be colder, a decent share of the precipitation might come down as snow.

Snow won't immediately help with the continued dryness. It would have to melt first, to put my Captain Obvious hat on for a moment.     

Winter sports enthusiasts don't want rain. But I think we're at the point where it's OK to bank the snow now, and let the spring sunshine months from now melt the snow and finish replenishing our water. 

 

Antarctic Glacier Yields Body Of Long-Missing Meteorologist

Dennis Bell, right, celebrating Christmas, 1958 in
Antarctica. The next month, he died when he
fell into a glacier crevasse. His body was not
recovered  until earlier this year. 

 Climate change might have had a had in bringing a closure to an Antarctic tragedy that occurred more than six decades ago.  

In 1959, Dennis Bell, a 25 year old meteorologist, fell to his death into a glacial crevasse in Antarctica. Early this year, a Polish team found Bell's remains at the end of a melting, receding glacier. 

Bell was part of a group that climbed onto Ecology Glacier on King George Island, Antarctica to do some field research. 

Gizmodo picks up the story:

"The group split into pairs, and Bell and surveyor Jeff Stokes set off before the others. During the ascent, Bell moved ahead of the sledge without his skis to encourage the tiring dogs and disappeared into a crevasse. Bell survived the fall, however, and Stokes threw a rope down to him to pull him back up. 

Bell, however, had tied the rope around his belt rather than around himself. When his body reached the top of the crevice, he got stuck, the belt broke, and this time he fell to his death."

Bell's body was to found until this January, when a Polish team found bones near their base. Eventually, more than 200 personal effects were found nearby, including radio equipment, a torch, ski pols, an inscribed Erguel wristwatch, a Swedish Mora knife and an ebonite pipe stem, The Guardian reported. 

The remains were eventually taken to London, where DNA tests confirmed the remains belonged to Bell. 

The following will seem a little crass, since this involves a tragic death. But, I'll say it anyway. I'm not sure if the discovery of Bell's remains last January was the result of climate change melting the glacier enough to expose the the remains, or whether it was just the natural progression of the glacier that allowed humans to discover it all. 

As a memorial, Bell Point on King George Island was named in the honor of that meteorologist who died in 1959.   

Freezing Fog Ices Vermont Trees Beautifully, Ices Roads Dangerously

Freezing fog this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
coated tree branches with delicate rime ice
A rare freezing fog advisory was in effect for the
Champlain Valley this morning. 

Freezing fog enveloped large parts of Vermont overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. It left trees and pretty much everything else outside coated in ghostly white ice.   

And made things challenging on the roads. 

Freezing fog is when all the droplets in the fog are still liquid, even though the temperature is under 32 degrees.

As soon as these supercooled droplets as they're called  hit anything - a road, tree branches, your cold car windshield, they freeze.

On trees and other outdoor objects, the frozen water takes the form of rime ice, a delicate, feathery feature that is absolutely beautiful. 

On roadways, freezing fog forms virtually invisible black ice on pavement, especially on bridges and overpasses. 

The fact that in some cases only bridges are frozen, motorists are often taken by surprise. If they're going too fast, you can get some serious crashes. Especially if the freezing fog is thick and visibility is horrible, like it was in many areas in and near the Champlain Valley overnight and this morning. 

Freezing fog happens from time to time in Vermont. We had a bout of it around Christmastime last year.  When the sun hit those frosted trees, the scenery looked magical. It made the holiday season look that much better. 

Rime ice from freezing fog formed icy little 
needles on this St. Albans pine branch this morning, 

This morning's freezing fog was particularly dense in many spots. So dense that the the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a freezing fog advisory for the entire Champlain Valley.

 It was the first time the Vermont NWS office issues such an advisory in a decade. 

The advisory stays in effect until 10 a.m today. If you're reading this early and planning on a drive, take it slow, keep your low beams on, and really be careful around those bridges and overpasses. And try to leave as much room as you can between you and the vehicle in front of you, 

The freezing fog should gradually lift during the course of the morning. At first it will probably transition to a low overcast. Eventually, the sun should break through for at least some of us.. 

It's tricky to determine when or if the sun will actually make an appearance. In warmer times of the year, the sun heats everything up enough to create updrafts that mix the air and evaporate the fog. 

This time of year the low angle of the sun means it can't heat things up enough to readily break up the fog. Some parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under the clouds all day. Or at least most of the day. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, there was much less fog, so other sections of Vermont will just have another partly sunny, cool November day. 

Tonight, the wind will begin to stir as a weather front begins to make an approach. Those winds should prevent another round of freezing fog from forming. Except maybe in the deeper valleys of eastern Vermont. 

Iceland Gearing Up For Atlantic Current Collapse

Iceland considers the risk of a critical Atlantic Ocean
current collapsing an existential threat. 

New research I posted about back in September about the possible collapse of a critical Atlantic Ocean current has Iceland on high alert. 

The newer research contradicted some earlier studies and said that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could shut down as soon as the middle of this century.  

That's really bad, because the current is what keeps western Europe mild and wet. Without the current, winters in western Europe would become something like central North America, and droughts would take hold. In effect, western Europe would suffer through a sort of regional ice age. 

This mess would, of course, be due to climate change.  

The collapse of the current would also cause bad, bad, worldwide effects, such as greatly increased water temperatures along United States East Coast. That would cause an abrupt rise in sea levels, since warm water expands. It would also might make the eastern United States more prone to hurricanes and other big storms. 

The collapse of the AMOC would also mess up rainfall amounts and seasons that farmers in Africa, India and South America have relied upon for centuries. 

Then there's Iceland. 

Like most of the rest of the world, Iceland has been warming up, thanks to climate change. The island nation way up in the North Atlantic actually saw their first mosquitoes in recorded history this year because the region had warmed up so much. 

If the AMOC shuts down, Iceland would definitely earn its name. It, too, benefits from the warmth of AMOC. 

Even though an AMOC collapse might not happen for a few decades, if at all, it has put Iceland on full alert:

According to Iceland Review:

"Iceland has, for the first time, classified a climate-related phenomenon as a national security threat, following warnings that a key Atlantic Ocean current system may be approaching collapse."

......"The move allows authorities to coordinate response plans across ministries, covering food and energy supplies, infrastructure and transport resilience."

MSN continues the story: 

"It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security.' Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johansson said by email '(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.'"

Iceland is looking at a full range of possible effects of an AMOC crash, such as energy supplies, food security, infrastructure and transportation, both internal and with other nations.  

Other nations are taking notice, too. 

For instance, Ireland's weather service scientists briefed the nation's prime minister on the AMOC issue. Norway's environmental ministry said it was "seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research" before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk,' MSN reported. 

INTERCONNECTED CHAOS

Of course, nobody knows when or if the AMOC will grind to a halt. If that happens, scientists think it would make Antarctica warm up even faster than it is now.

Newly released research also suggest that melting around West Antarctica now could help preserve the AMOC, or at least slow its demise.   

According to New Scientist:

"..it won't be enough to prevent major changes to the climate. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would still decline buy 60 percent, and its full recovery would take 3,000 years."

Which seems to me a little long to wait, don't you think?

As always, there's a lot of ifs, questions and blank spots in the research done by Sacha Sinet at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. 

 New Scientist again:

"According to simulations by Sinet and his colleagues, the timing of the melting is key. If a centuries-long pulse of Antarctic meltwater arrives at the same time as massive melt from Greenland, it will only see up the AMOC shutdown. 

If the Antarctic water arrives about 1,000 years before the peak of Greenland's melting, however, the AMOC would weaken for several hundred years, but then recover over the next 3,000 years. While the AMOC eventually recovered in all scenarios, this early Antarctic melt prevented its total collapses and sped up its revival." 

In other words, climate change isn't as simple as the world just warming up. Everything is connected, so expect the unexpected when it comes to climate change. 

The Vermont Sky Was A Strange Color This Morning: Blue!

Skies beginning to clear late yesterday afternoon
in St. Albans, Vermont. That darker stuff you
see at the top of the photo is still hanging off 
the eaves of my house. We still have snow
on the ground around here. 

 I awoke this morning here in St. Albans, Vermont to find quite a bit of blue sky.

Aside from a few glimpses of sun last Saturday, this is the first time the sky was truly mostly clear since November 8. That's a long time to be under the clouds, so it was almost shocking to see the blue skies this morning. 

Also shocking were the morning temperatures. The clear skies overnight allowed readings to really drop to easily the coldest so far this season. 

Most of Vermont was in the teens. Burlington was down to 21 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was just 3 degrees above zero.

A few spots got particularly cold because they had snow cover, which tends to promote even chillier nights. By the way,  Mount Mansfield set another record for the date yesterday for deepest snow cover, with a depth of 39 inches. 

That's the third deepest snow on record. WCAX meteorologist Gunner Consol did some checking. He found that of the 10 Novembers with the deepest snow, seven of them went on to have above average snow depths later in the winter, and three of them were below normal. 

These temperatures actually aren't strange at all for this time of year. (The record low in Burlington today is 7 above, so we really missed that by a large margin.

The chilly November we've endured so far has been mostly a function of cold daytime highs. Nights have been relatively mild. Finally seeing a bonafide cold morning is a bit of a shock to the system.

The mostly clear skies that helped make last night and early this morning so cold will help today warm up some. The sun angle is low, so it can't warm us up the much. But the sun will still give it a try. Which means by afternoon we should be well up into the 30s. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're still looking at a break from "exciting weather" for the next few days. The atmosphere is still rearranging itself for the next barrage of storms that might (or might not) hit once we get into December. 

In the meantime, only little systems will come through. We'll still see some sun tomorrow in case you miss it today. A weak thing will come through Friday with a little light rain, which might start off as a bit of a mix way up high in the mountains.

This coming weekend will be pretty average for this time of year.  We won't exactly see clear skies. but the sun will be out part of the time during our short days, especially on Saturday. 

You usually can't expect balmy weather for this time of year, so highs will only be in the 35 to 45 degree range, depending on if you live in a traditional Vermont ice box or the state's banana belt towns. Overnights will get into the 20s. 

Killington and Jay Peak will be open for business this weekend, so if you want to get some early skiing or riding in, go for it. (Friday's rain won't melt much snow up there).

Our next shot at any storminess would come next Tuesday night or Wednesday. It's too soon to tell what kind of storm, how big it will be, or even whether it will actually affect us here in Vermont. 

Another Odd Tornado Disaster Location: Portugal

Damage left behind after a tornado killed an elderly woman
and injured several others recently in southern Portugal

Earlier this month it was Brazil, now it's Portugal. 

As in Brazil, a destructive, deadly tornado hit a campsite in Albulfeira, Portugal.  Numerous trees fell in the campsite, including one that killed an 85 year-old woman from Britain. The tornado seriously injure two other people  and caused minor injuries to about 20. 

Alburfeira is on the central southern coast of Portugal. Video showed what appeared to be a partly rain-wrapped tornado moving through an area that seems like a very nice tourist district. 

 The tornado was part of a larger system, dubbed Storm Claudia, which caused serious flooding in northern Portugal and in  Great Britain. 

Two people were reported killed by the flooding in northern Portugal

Severe flooding also hit southeast Wales, near the English border, where as much as 4.7 inches of rain fell.

The town of Monmouth, Wales was inundated as the River Monnow rose to a record high level. Other flooding was reported in other parts of England and in Ireland. 

There's been a spate of tornadoes in places that historically do get tornadoes. But the recent twisters have been unusually deadly and destructive. 

Earlier this month, a strong tornado killed six people, injured about 750 and essentially leveled a large town in the southern Brazilian state of Parana.

In October, another strong tornado swept through Ermont, France, a city about 13 miles north of Paris, killing one person, injuring several others and causing widespread damage.  

Trump Administration Tries Mob-Like Tactics To Try Stopping Shipping Efficiency Standards, Of All Things.

Trump administration officials used what were basically
mob-like tactics to scuttle a propose international
green/climate change fighting shipping accord. 

A November 3 Politico article illustrates just how scary efforts to combat climate change are to the Team Trump. 

They're resorting to methods that you'd almost see in a bad mobster movie. 

First, the background: 

As I posted at the end of August, the International Maritime Organization is negotiating a "net-zero framework" for shipping, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions form the international shipping center. 

The IMO, which has 176 member countries, regulates the safety and security if international shipping and works to prevent pollution on the oceans and seas.  

The  U.S.under Trump wants no part of clean shipping deal, because Trump thinks climate change is a "hoax" and emissions regulations are just aimed at wrecking the U.S. economy. 

Trump world thinks that, but pretty much nobody else. Whatevs. 

Back in August, we learned that Trump was strong arming countries who supported the proposed agreement. At the time, he was using his usual tariff threats. 

Now, according to Politico, it's gotten way worse. 

"Eight envoys, officials and civil society observers from Europe, granted anonymity to describe the fractious closed-door discussions and protect their relationships with those involved confirmed national delegates had reported they had been threatened with personal consequences if they went against Washington."

'Our negotiators had never see this before in any international talks,' said one European official, who had spoken to negotiators. 'People being summoned to the U.S. Embassy in London - intimidation, threats of cessation of business, threats of family members losing visas."

I'm sure any international negotiations over commerce -  or anything else for that matter  - often get tense, and we never hear about it. 

But this had to be especially bad if negotiators are willing to talk to the media, even if they do it anonymously. 

Given these are Trump people, the U.S. delegation didn't abandon tariff threats, no siree They threatened Caribbean nations with tariffs mules they agreed to postpone the shipping emissions decision, Politico reported.  

U.S. officials basically admitted this weird, excessive pressure in an October 10 press release from the State Department.

The threats in the press release against nations that sign on to the green shipping agreement include barring ships from those nations from U.S. ports; imposing visa restrictions and increasing fees on maritime crew member visas; imposing additional port fees on ships owned, operated and flagged by countries supporting the agreement; and imposing sanctions on officials supporting these climate policies.

That last one gets me. Sanctions on individuals are usually used on war criminals, or at least adjacent to war criminals. You know, like Russian oligarchs promoting the war against Ukraine, that type of thing. 

The State Department press release also labeled the planned accord as an "unsanctioned global tax regime."

What it really would have been is the first global carbon-pricing system. It would have charted ships $380 per metric ton of every extra to of CO2 equivalent they emit. Vessels would have been rewarded for reducing their emissions. 

Notice I'm referring to this thing in the past tense. 

That's because ultimately, the Trump administration's mob tactics worked, at least for now

As Politco reports:

"In a close vote, the summit chose to delay the emissions tax for a year - a feat viewed by many as a near-death blow to the measure and a major victory for Trump. Dozens of countries from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia agreed to the delay." 

Short term, these strong-arm tactics from the Trump team worked. In the long run, they rarely do. Nations just find a way to work around the United States. That cuts us out of future negotiating and economic power. 

Eventually, individuals, governments, you name it come to understand that Trump's aggressiveness is not strength, but weakness. 

If Trump thinks he's turning us into more of a superpower than ever, he's mistaken. Instead, he's turning the U.S. into a backwater. 

Vermont Mountains Buried In Snow, But Weather Now Going Quiet

We weren't able to get all of the flower pots and deck 
furniture put away before winter weather arrived a 
little over a week ago here in St. Albans, Vermont. 
There's still snow on the ground, and forecasts
indicate it won't melt away quickly. 

Most of the snow that kept falling and falling and falling on many of Vermont's mountains is finally pretty much over as of this morning. 

The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield reached 38 inches by late Monday afternoon, the deepest on record for the date.

 There have only been six other November dates since 1954 with more snow on the ground on than on Monday. 

Those six dates were all in the Novembers in 1990 and 2018.  

This doesn't predict what kind of winter we're going to have. In Burlington, the winter of 1990-91 was the ninth least snowiest  on record in Burlington. The winter of 2018-19 was the tenth snowiest on record, 

On Sunday and Monday, the mountains collected almost all the snow, with valleys pretty much avoiding almost everything. True, many towns in the Northeast Kingdom managed a few inches, but everyone outside of the Green Mountains and their western slopes.

On the western slopes, Underhill Center saw 9.8 inches of new snow, and Fletcher got 8 inches. Most places got less than an inch. 

The almost daily snows we've seen in the Vermont mountains are pretty much shutting off for awhile. 

Instead, we're going to have a probably sort of brief interlude of boring weather. Which is par for the course for November, and, frankly a bit of a relief from the admittedly badly needed storminess we've recently experienced.  Drought relief is still welcome. 

Actually, the whole nation is getting a break from recent storminess. Only modest storms will cross the United States for the next few days. 

For us, we'll have quiet weather today through Thursday. There might even be a little bit of sun each day, especially on Wednesday. How about that for a change?  

It's been chilly, and unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on your perspective, it's not going to warm up much over the next three days. It'll get to 40 degrees in some of the broader valleys, which I suppose is an improvement over the past week or so. 

If you still have snow on the ground, it's not going to go away quickly.

One of those "meh" storms will come through us here in Vermont around Friday. Since it will be somewhat warmer than it's been lately, most of the precipitation with this thing will come down as rain. Even in the mountains. 

This won't be a big storm at all, so no flooding, no drama. Just a little wet weather for the end of the week. 

Computer models have been hinting it might really warm up around Vermont in the closing days of November, at least for a little while. But some of those forecasts are backing off on that idea. I'm doubting we'll see any truly balmy late autumn weather in the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, we still have some uncertain signs of a return to more exciting weather once we get into December.  That just means a more active weather pattern. It's too soon to tell what "exciting" will mean once we get past the Thanksgiving weekend.