Wrong Way Cold Front Is Here; Weird Temperature Ranges, Uncertain Rainfall Predictions Result

The "wrong way" cold front shows up nicely on
satellite photos today as the northwest to southeast
cloud band. Most of the clouds are north of the
actual front, which has already made its way into
parts of Vermont.

 The back door or wrong way cold front we've talked about for the past few days is in Vermont this morning, and temperatures will be all over the place in the Green Mountain State today. 

Basically, we can expect highs in the mid 60s to mid 80s today, which is quite a range.

Luckily, we can sort of pinpoint who will be warm and who will be relatively cool so that you can make your plans, but this forecast won't be perfect.  The northern Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom will be coolest, with low humidity. Meanwhile low elevations in southern Vermont, like Bennington and Brattleboro, will be warmest. And also on the humid side. 

The trick will be who gets what temperature in the middle? It depends upon when the front moves through. As of 7 a.m., it had already gone through St. Albans, but was just reaching Burlington.

Interestingly, Burlington had an odd, brief warmup before dawn before the cold front arrived. It went from 68 to 77 degrees between 2 and 4 a.m., which is the opposite way temperatures should go in the wee hours of the morning.

Then, once the sun came up, temperatures started falling again, which of course is opposite of how things should go. 

All this means is I'm not super confident in what temperatures will be anywhere in Vermont today. It's a shallow layer of cool air coming in, with a warm layer above it.  The sun is nearing its highest intensity of the year. Will that allow some of the warmer air aloft to mix down?  Probably not much, but enough to make the forecast challenging.  

Parts of central Vermont might see temperatures quickly rise this morning, then settle back this afternoon as the wrong way cold front slowly makes its way southwestward toward Bennington. 

Most of the clouds with this cold front are to its north and east, so we will stay partly sunny today, so no matter what the temperature is, it will be pleasant enough with the sunshine.  Skies might look hazy at times due to wildfire smoke high overhead. Yeah, that's starting again. 

Don't be surprised if some places in the north stay in the low 60s will other pop up into the 70s. It will be that kind of day.

In the warm humid air south, mostly south of Route 4 a couple thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. One or two of those might be on the strongish side, but most people will escape anything major. 

The lingering front makes Wednesday's forecast tricky, too.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be diving northwest to southeast along or near this stalled wrong way front. The thunderstorms might tend to die out as the hit the cool, stable air over most of Vermont. 

This is where the National Weather Service in South 
Burlington predicts today's "wrong way" cold front
will be at 2 p.m. Warm and humid south of the front,
cool and dry north.

But remember, there's that warm layer just above the shallow chilly air.  That warm air aloft could maintain some thunder, and more importantly some locally heavy downpours early Wednesday and again Wednesday afternoon. 

Most if not all of Vermont will see some rain, but this weather situation makes it almost impossible to tell in advance who gets the heavy downpours and who sees just light rain and sprinkles. 

Some places could see more than an inch of rain out of this.  There's a chance a few spots could see enough rain to cause a few flooding issues.  That's a big maybe but something to watch. All this will be happening under gray skies and cool temperatures. Highs will barely make it 60 north. People in southern valleys will be lucky to see 70.

After Wednesday, we settle back into a period of typical June weather. We'll have a chance of showers almost every day for the next week, but most if not all days won't be washouts. Sunshine will burst out most days, and temperatures will be near normal (highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s most of the time).

MINNESOTA STORM

As expected, Minnesota, and parts of South Dakota were blasted by severe weather. Only a handful of tornadoes have been confirmed so far.  I think as meteorologists pick apart which areas had strong straight line winds and which areas had something else, the confirmed number of tornadoes will go up. 

The lakeside town of Forada, Minnesota, which is very much like the fictional town of Lake Wobegon from the old Prairie Home Companion radio series, was hit hardest, with dozens of homes destroyed or severely damaged. 

Today, we have a threat of severe weather in a band from northern Texas to Michigan.  That moves to western and central New York tomorrow on the warm side of the "wrong way" cold front that's pestering us today. 

Big Midwest Severe Outbreak Underway; "Wrong Way" Cold Front To Protect Us In Vermont

The upper Midwest, especially the areas in 
red and orange, are in for a significant
severe weather outbreak today. Tornadoes,
some of them large, big hail, damaging winds
and flooding are all in play.

UPDATE 5 p.m.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation, or PDS tornado warning for much of Minnesota.

A PDS tornado warning is pretty rare and means forecasters expect several strong to even extreme tornadoes that could have long tracks. 

As of 4:30 p.m. eastern time, several tornado warnings have already been issued in eastern South Dakota and a lot of damage has been initially reported in Sherman, northwest of Sioux Falls. 

I do think that at this point, locations south and west of Sioux Falls are in the clear, but it's going to be a horrible few hours in Minnesota and far eastern North Dakota.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, that "wrong way" cold front has the makings of creating some strange, but not dangerous weather in Vermont. 

Depending upon where the front is tomorrow afternoon, high temperatures in varying places in Vermont will be somewhere between the mid-60s to near 90.  The coolest readings would probably be in the far northern Champlain Valley and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom.

There's potential, too, for what are known as elevated thunderstorms Wednesday. The cool, stable air near the surface behind the front in Vermont would prevent thunderstorms from forming. But warm, humid air above the shallow cool air could support thunderstorms that form higher up.  Those, if they develop, could produce locally heavy rain and even a little hail. This is not guaranteed, but possible. More details tomorrow morning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

What will probably be one of the biggest outbreaks of severe weather and tornadoes of the year is underway in the Upper Plains and Midwest, with today expected to be the worst of it.  Minnesota seems to be ground zero, but surrounding states are being pounded, too. 

This all will head east over the next couple of days, but a wrong way cold front looks like it will protect at least most of Vermont from this bad weather. We'll get more into Vermont and New England in a moment. 

First, out West. 

The good news is no known tornadoes developed in Nebraska and South Dakota last night from supercells that formed late in the day. The bad news is there were a few reports of hail five inches in diameter - about the size of a cantaloupe. That had to hurt! 

Since there were only a couple supercells last night in Nebraska, it was both humorous and scary to see easily more than 100 storm chasers clogging the roads near the storm for a view.

We saw several other reports of large hail and damaging winds in Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota yesterday.

Early this morning, another wave of severe thunderstorms was passing through Minnesota. This line has produced wind gusts as high as 84 mph and some large hail.  Unfortunately, this early morning stuff is just an appetizer. 

A well organized and strong for this time of year storm system should gather the right ingredients for a tornado outbreak, especially in western Minnesota, northeastern South Dakota and southeastern South Dakota.

Some of the tornadoes this afternoon and evening could be quite strong and long-lasting.  The larger towns in this area that is particularly under the gun are Fargo, North Dakota, Moorhead, Minnesota and Brookings and Watertown, South Dakota. 

Since this storm has a lot of moisture to work with, there's a real threat of flooding again in parts of already soggy eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

The National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, North Dakota, whose coverage area includes western Minnesota, is not playing games. You don't often see stern wording such as the following from NWS offices

"(There is) potential for damaging winds up to 80 mph, hail over 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes possibly significant.......This looks to be a particularly dangerous afternoon and evening for all modes of severe weather. People need to pay close attention to the weather and have a way to receive warnings. Make sure to go through  your severe weather action plan, especially for the lakes country of Minnesota. Have a shelter where you can go if dangerous weather approaches. Do not wait until it is too late to get your plan in place."

The severe weather will shift east tomorrow and Wednesday, though it won't be quite as intense as it is today. Which brings us to what's going on around where we live in Vermont. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

By Wednesday, a severe weather threat will
reach much of New York, but at this point
it looks like a "wrong way" cold front 
will prevent that risk from 
reaching into Vermont.

Sunday was about as perfect an early summer day as you can imagine in Vermont. Warm temperatures, blue skies, pretty puffy clouds, low humidity. It was the total package.

Today will be pretty good, too, though high clouds might dim the sun at times this afternoon.  Most valleys should get up to 80 degrees or so today. 

Then the weather in the Northeast gets interesting, but here in Vermont, very likely not dangerous. 

We've been talking about that "Wrong Way" cold front for a few days now. It's a back door cold front, coming at us from the northeast and east, rather than west the way cold fronts are "supposed" to act.

The wrong way cold front will probably sweep southwestward and make it down to southwestern Vermont and the southern Adirondacks by tomorrow afternoon.  

That will keep temperatures suppressed, ranging from the 60s in the Northeast Kingdom to the 70s for most of us. Far southwestern Vermont might get into the upper 80s ahead of the front.

It will get really interesting in southern New England, where some areas will see temperatures rise into the upper 80s, only to crash into the mid 60s within an hour or two as the front moves in from the east. 

Meanwhile, that severe weather from the Midwest will be moving our way.

It turns out that Wrong Way cold front might be a bit of a savior for most of Vermont. Warm, humid unstable air will be in place Wednesday west of that stalled wrong way front in western and central New York. That will support thunderstorms, some with damaging winds and large hail in that area.

However, the air behind the wrong way front, where most of Vermont will stay, will be quite stable, at least in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As the thunderstorms in New York and Ontario encounter the stable air here, they'll just change into regular old showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. 

We will have to watch weather the wrong way front wiggles back toward the northeast a bit on Wednesday. If that happen, southwestern Vermont might be in play after all for a few strong storms. We shall see!

After that, we're in for a spell of pretty average early June weather for the rest of the week and next weekend. 

The Hero Lilac

The big lilac in front of my house put on a huge, aromatic
show this spring, infusing me with a bit more confidence
in the rest of the garden season. 

When I bought my house back in November, 2007, the place was a wreck.  

Before me, it had been owned by - no lie - a schizophrenic pot dealer with a penchant for guns and a huge overestimation of his plumbing and electrical skills.  

But I needed a bargain fixer upper and this was my ticket. 

The house had good bones, though it was a wreck. The plumbing leaked, the electrical system was about as far from code as you could get. The property comprises an acre, all overgrown with weeds, dead shrubs and tangles of wild grapevine. 

However, I envisioned a place that would eventually become a paradise, a comfortable home with beautiful gardens where a weather geek like me can watch and measure the change of seasons, the pluses and minuses of Vermont weather, and for better or worse, changes in the climate.

Thanks to my husband Jeff and his exquisite design vision, the house is now gorgeous. (Bonus: Also safe and up to building code standards).And because of my love of playing in the dirt, the gardens aren't too shabby. 

This process from beast to beauty has to start from a place of potential. The house was just a simple rectangle, a blank slate on which Jeff could work his magic. 

The property had pieces that promised beauty, too. The back yard has three enormous poplar trees, The Triplets as I call them, that anchor the back yard gardens.

When I bought the house, there was a large but battered lilac bush out front just begging for some TLC.

I'm a Vermonter, and I know it's sacrilegious to destroy a lilac. And this old lilac had potential, like the rest of the property. Lilac and I were fast friends.

I quickly tore out all the dead limbs and stems. In December of 2007,  pruned the tangles. Contained the tendrils running out toward the drive. Lilac rewarded me in May, 2008 with gorgeous blooms and hasn't let me down since.

Except for one incident that wasn't Lilac's fault. I'll get to that in a bit. 

Blooms on my lilac were so profuse the branches sagged,
leaving me with this gorgeous view at my front door

Lilacs are tough old birds. They'll survive just fine for decades after the house they were near has long since disappeared. So I learned never to worry about Lilac. This guy fights back. 

In April, 2010, we had an early spring. By the last week of the month, Lilac had leafed out and had plenty of flower buds. Then on April 27-28, thirteen inches of snow flattened twelve-foot-tall Lilac to the ground. 

Then it thawed and Lilac sprung back almost as if nothing had happened. I had to remove one relatively minor branch that had cracked. 

Lilac became my measure of how late or early spring was. Lilac bloomed spectacularly by the first of May, 2012, the earliest I'd seen that happen. It was a remarkably warm spring. It ran a little late in May, 2014 after a cool spring. 

But Lilac was always reliable.

Maybe it's a sign of how off the rails the climate has gotten, but last year was the first time I've seen Lilac's spring glory diminished by goofy weather. 

Spring, 2021 was very early, almost as early as 2012. The florets were budding and growing by April 20. Then, on April 21-22, it snowed.  No problem, Lilac has proven it can handle that. Then, with temperatures in the 20s, roaring northwest winds and snow squalls ripped through during the morning and early afternoon of April 22.

That managed to kill many of the florets on Lilac.  It subsequently bloomed a little bit, but the show was very much diminished last spring. It made me wonder a little bit if gardening is even worth it. If climate change can diminish tough Lilac, what will it do to everything else, eventually. 

Apparently, Lilac wants me to buck up.  This year, another early spring, but not as early as last year arrived. There was one scare of sorts with another super heavy, wet snowstorm on April 19 that weighed down the branches, but that ended quickly with no problem.

The blooms this year were more than I've ever seen. Everyone in Vermont appears to have had a great lilac year, but Lilac by my house outdid itself. You can scarcely see any leaves, the blooms were so profuse. The branches were so heavy with blooms they sagged almost to the ground. 

Talk about encouragement! The breeze blowing the aroma of the lilacs through the house was enough to snap me out of my negative mood.'

A too-early bout with heat and humidity (yay, climate change again) made the lilac show come and go faster than usual. The blooms have faded now, but they did their job. 

Yes, I'm way behind on gardening this year.  But I can go forward with confidence, with Lilac's spring blessing. I don't know what kind of setbacks I might suffer this summer, - drought, floods, severe windstorms, spongy moth caterpillars - who knows? 

In the age of climate change, you need any type of confidence I can collect. 

 

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Goes The Song, And The Forecast

Plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck and the surrounding
trees got a drink of water this morning. Elsewhere in
Vermont, rainfall last night was less than most expected

 Most of Vermont had a disappointing amount of rain yesterday and last night.  We pretty much threaded the needled between a zone of rather heavy rain in northern New York last evening, and some robust thunderstorms down in the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England. 

Burlington only managed 0.07 of an inch, and Montpelier got nothing. Just the far northwest corner of the Green Mountain State received anything decent. 

My rain gauge is inaccurate and I have to get a new one, as it said I had an inch of rain. Judging from the amount of water outside my house, I'd guess precipitation was closer to half an inch. 

If you need rain, the good news is a little more is probably coming today, though it doesn't look like much.  And that hot, dry spell that had been forecast for this upcoming week is looking less hot and less dry. 

In general, most of today's showers will run from now until early afternoon, and then start tapering off northwest to southeast. It looks like most of us will see a quarter inch of rain or less, but as always, there might be a locally heavier downpour or two.

Tomorrow and Monday are still looking gorgeous. It'll be cooler and less humid tonight, and warm but not humid Sunday.  Monday's humidity will be reasonable. 

It's now looking like Monday might be the warmest day of the week. Heat and humidity had been in the forecast for most of the upcoming week, but it now looks like a wrong way cold front coming in from the northeast will win out. 

That means it will still be seasonably mild, with maybe highs in the 70s to perhaps around 80 southwest. 

This arrangement will open the door for weather disturbances to scoot down on us from the northwest.  That puts the chance of showers in the forecast Tuesday through Friday. 

I'm not impressed by the amount of rain coming up, and it certainly won't rain all the time. But the chances of showers and some clouds around will keep us from drying out too quickly. 

Looking ahead, the first 10 days or so of June are looking cool and somewhat showery as well. 

Gusty Winds Thursday Introduced Rainy Vermont Period, Things To Improve Sunday

Trees bend in the wind Thursday evening in St. 
Albans Vermont. Some gusts Thursday reached 40 mph

 I was pretty impressed by some of the wind gusts yesterday, as they were pretty strong for this time of year.   

Normally, we only see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph or more range during strong thunderstorms this time of year.   Non-thunderstorm winds like Thursday's are usually creatures of late fall, winter and early spring. 

Burlington managed a gust to 44 mph, the highest reported in the area so far, but many places were in the 35 to 40 mph range. Leaves on the trees this time of year make them more prone to snapping, and I did see quite a few branches and a couple of trees down in my wanderings on Thursday. 

The wind has died down, and this morning, we've dealt with some light showers, at least in northern areas. 

As expected, we're going to deal with a couple not so perfect late spring days. But the rain is always welcome. It's coming at just the right time to wet down the gardens after a few dry, breezy days. 

It's possible a few storms this afternoon could get on the strong side, but the the risk is marginal at best. We could also see some locally torrential downpours late today and tonight, but again, the risk of any flooding is very low. 

The real serious part of this storm system is hitting the Mid-Atlantic States. There's been a tornado watch since early today in part Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland that's in effect until at least 2 p.m. today. The same areas could see some flash floods as well. 

It's a sluggish storm system, as previously advertised, so showers should linger through much of Saturday. It appears that the air will be unstable enough for renewed showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder  to re-blossom in at least parts of Vermont during the afternoon. 

Sunday is still looking gorgeous with sunshine and reasonable humidity levels.

That hot spell for next week is looking less hot and a bit less humid as well. It will still be very warm for this time of year, and the humidity won't be exactly low. The ridge of high pressure causing the toasty weather is expected to set up shop a little further south than first thought. 

This readjusted setup will allow disturbances riding up and over the ridge to skirt just to our north, which offers the chances of a few showers and storms in northern Vermont by midweek.  The ridge will be starting to break down around Thursday, to allow more showers and maybe storms to move in by then.  

Memorial Day Weekend To Match Holiday's Weather Reputation

True to form, this Memorial Day weekend will re-introduce
us to summer. It will start rainy, and end sunny and warm.
If you do end up out on the lakes Sunday or Monday,
remember the water temperature is still quite cold
so be careful and don't fall in! 

Memorial Day weekend is regarded as the unofficial start of summer. Here in Vermont this year, it will also mark the re-start of summer 2022.  

The weekend will start out rather wet and not beach friendly.  After a few coolish days this week, the holiday weekend will end with a return of warm, humid weather. How warm it gets depends on the actions of a potential "wrong way" cold front. 

If you looked at the weather radar this morning, you'd think we're getting a soaking rain. However, we were seeing pretty much nothing more than sprinkles out there early this morning. Rain is falling into dry air, so it's mostly evaporating on the way down. The little disturbance causing this will move on this afternoon, and we'll end up with a partly sunny, windy afternoon.

Next up, we actually will get some rain.  We should hope we get a soaking, as this will probably be the last rain for awhile, as we seem to be getting ready to enter another multi-day dry spell. 

The bulk of the rain will come between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, as that's when the best moisture will be in place with the storm system coming in from the Midwest. Current expectations are we could see a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain from this. So nothing extreme. 

We could also see a few rumbles of thunder in spots and some locally heavy downpours, but again, nothing too scary.

One aspect of this mid-sized system that is a sign of summer is it's forward speed. It's sluggish. It'll linger most of the day Saturday, keeping us under risk of showers. Still, the afternoon and evening will begin to dry out a bit, at least in northwestern sections. 

That's still better than the Saturday of Memorial Day last year.  It actually snowed in the high elevations of southern Vermont. Northern Vermont had clearer skies and a somewhat warmer afternoon than the south, but the north had scattered frost at night. 

No such worries this year 

Sunday at this point is looking nice, with sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 70s for highs. Humidity will be reasonable. Which is all good for the Vermont City Marathon in Burlington.  You don't want a lot of heat and humidity for the runners.

Not to worry, though, if you like summer weather, the final day of the Memorial Day weekend brings it on. By Monday afternoon, it will at least in the low 80s for most of us.  We've already had a couple spells of true summer weather this month, and it looks like we're about to get another one as May ends and June begins.

Next week looks like we'll have daily highs in the 80s with somewhat muggy nights and moderately humid afternoons.  Rain chances look low, too.

The only wild card is a possible back door cold front. It's called back door because most cold fronts come at us from the west or northwest.  This one, if it makes it, would come in from the northeast. 

If this "back door" cold front makes it, things will be slightly cooler than current forecasts, but still on the warm side for this time of year. Again, if this front makes it, the better chances of slightly cooler weather would be east of the Green Mountains. 

NOAA Agree: Hurricane Season To Be Busy Again This Year

Hurricane Ida on approach to Louisiana last year. 
NOAA is predicting yet another busy 
hurricane season for 2022.

 NOAA weighed in with their seasonal hurricane forecast for this year, and they agree with pretty much everyone else: We're in for another busy hurricane season.  

NOAA does this in percent chances.  They tell  us there's a 65 percent chance of a busy season, a 25 percent chance of near normal activity and only a 10 percent chance we'll have fewer than average tropical systems this year. 

If this hurricane season is busier than usual, it will be the seventh such season in a row. 

Like all hurricane forecasts, NOAA doesn't really get into how many of these storms will hit the U.S. coast. That's awfully hard to predict until you have an actual hurricane out there to track. But it's all a matter of chances.

The more tropical storms and hurricanes you have buzzing around out there, the greater the chance at least a couple of them would splash ashore in the United States.

Here are a few more details from NOAA:

"For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (wind of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3,4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these range s with a 70 percent confidence."

Reasons for the expected busy hurricane season include the following:

La Nina: A periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean is continuing this year. This tends to weaken upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean.  With these weaker winds, clusters of thunderstorms that want to be tropical storms stand less chance of getting blown apart before gaining momentum into an organized hurricane

Water Temperatures: Water temperatures in much of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are above normal.  The warmer the water, the more fuel for wannabe tropical storms. 

African Monsoon: Central and western Africa are subject to a series of wet storm systems during their seasonal monsoon in the summer and early autumn.  These disturbances move off the west coast of Africa and can become hurricanes. This monsoon activity is forecast to be above normal this year.  

Climate Change: The exact role climate change has with hurricanes is still being studied. But some indications are that the warmer ocean waters can contribute to more such storms. The warmer water might also enable hurricanes to form further north than in the past. 

Or, hurricanes coming in from the south will be able to maintain their strength longer as they move over what used to be cold water, but is now warmer due to a changing climate. 

Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem. They can
cause catastrophic flooding well inland after their winds 
have died down.  This is a Vermont house destroyed
by Hurricane Irene's flooding in 2011.

NOAA's hurricane forecast is consistent with other forecasts. The closely watched Colorado State University hurricane forecast, for instance calls for 19 named storms, against an average of 14.4 such storms each year.

The Colorado State University forecast also predicts four major hurricanes this year, in line with NOAA's estimate.

Keep in mind that if a hurricane smacks into a distant coastline, it can still be your problem. We saw a classic example of that last year after Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana. A few days later, its remnants unleashed catastrophic flooding in New York City, New Jersey and some surrounding areas.

Winds with hurricanes die out pretty quickly once they reach shore. The torrential rains can last a lot longer. Climate change gives that a boost because warmer air can hold more tropical moisture than cooler air. Which can make the remnant downpours from hurricanes that much worse. 

Hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean starts June 1 and continues through November. You can see tropical storms outside that season, but they are relatively rare. At the moment, there's no signs of any tropical systems trying to form. Give it time, they will. 

Not Everybody Gets A Warm Spring; PAC NW Having Winter In May (Almost)

While we in Vermont have had a generally warm spring
with a couple snowy exceptions, the Pacific Northwest has
had a wet, cold, miserable spring. Photo above from KOIN
shows a Portland neighborhood enduring its first
April snowstorm on record back on the 11th of that month

Despite the chill we felt this morning around Vermont, we have had a relatively warm spring.  We've even had a few premature bouts of summer weather so far this month. 

There's actually a chance we might score into the top 10 warmest Mays, depending on how the weather shakes out in the final week of the month. 

Not everybody gets to enjoy such warm weather. The Pacific Northwest, in particular, has had a miserable spring. 

In Seattle, April was a substantial 4.2 degrees cooler than normal and so far May in Seattle is running at 5.5 degrees below normal. They've dealt with extra clouds and rain, too. So far this month they've had 3.18 inches, more than double the amount they should have gotten by this point in the month. 

Portland, Oregon, had the first April snowfall on record on the 11th and 12th of the month.  Since many trees had leafed out by then, there was plenty of damage. The month ended up being 3.1 degrees colder than average.

Portland also had its wettest April on record, with 5.73 inches of precipitation (Normal is 2.89 inches).

Things aren't much better in May for Portland. The month so far is running 3.2 degrees chillier than average and rainfall is running an inch ahead of normal. 

Further east, places like Denver, Boulder and Colorado Springs are having a spring with temperatures averaging fairly close to normal. But even there. a late season snowstorm dumped several inches of slush on those cities.  Trees were leafed out there, too, so many branches collapsed onto wires, causing 100,000 people to lose power.

Prospects seem bleak for a warmup in the Pacific Northwest. The long range forecast for the next two weeks calls for cooler and wetter than average conditions in those areas.

By contrast,  the admittedly not completely reliable long range forecasts has Vermont with mostly warmer than average weather with near normal precipitation for the next two weeks. 

The cold weather in the Pacific Northwest shows that even with climate change, you can get spells of chilly, dreary weather. Cold snaps don't become impossible with climate change, they just become somewhat less likely.

Storms Unexpectedly Avoided Vermont Sunday; Meanwhile Canada Deals With Sat. Derecho

Chaotic looking clouds, but no real storms over 
northern Vermont Sunday. Despite forecasts, there
was a lack of severe weather in Vermont Sunday.

 It really did seem like Vermont was primed for severe weather on Sunday. As we all know, that didn't happen. 

An interesting part of this is that the storms were expected to be most focused in northern Vermont.  Instead, most of the activity that formed was south and east of us in the Hudson Valley of New York, southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States.

Maine also experienced some activity. 

A map of storm reports from Sunday shows almost nothing in northern New England, where the bulk of damaging storms was forecast. 

I am puzzling a bit over the lack of storms, though I have some ideas. First of all, we should be happy there weren't severe storms, as who wants to deal with the damage and problems they cause?  But still, the forecast was wrong, and I'm sure local meteorologists are analyzing why. 

I have training in meteorology but am not a full-blown meteorologist, so I tend to defer to the experts.  One thing I noticed late Sunday morning and afternoon was that the clouds that were in the sky had a sort of "stable" look to them, like there wasn't anything triggering a lift.  It made me wonder a little if the predicted storms would develop. I guess my gut was right in this instance.

I didn't mention this in my updates to this here blog thingy Sunday, as I didn't want to contradict the messaging coming from real meteorologists. Adding my doubts to a volatile forecast would have been confusing to readers. And perhaps some people would have let their guard down if I expressed my doubts. Then, had severe storms developed, there was a chance that whoever read my posts might be unprepared. 

Anyway, the rest of the ingredients were there. It was quite humid, as we well know. A cold front was approaching, which would have created lift in the atmosphere, creating that severe weather risk.

The thinking was a line of storms would form just ahead of the cold front, with renegade strong storms out ahead of it.  

The blue and occasional green dots on this map indicate
reports of severe thunderstorms Sunday. Note that northern
Vermont and New Hampshire, which were considered
the most likely target for severe weather Sunday,
had no reports of damaging winds or big hail

That is precisely what tried to happen. I saw pop up showers on radar quickly form in Vermont, mostly along the west slopes of the Green Mountains and then race eastward. But they didn't grow into severe storms and sort of just petered out on their way toward the Connecticut River Valley. 

Strong winds aloft can make thunderstorms worse. But under certain conditions, the strong winds can rip the top off thunderstorms, stopping them in their tracks. I wonder if that was part of the problem with Sunday's situation.

Meanwhile, that expected line of storms sort of, kinda formed in New York and crossed into Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. But there was no lightning and the showers were wimpy.  The line of basically sprinkles did produce a gust front with winds of 30 to 35 mph.

You might have noticed it turned a bit hazy during that period of northwest wind gusts. That was sort of a pollen haboob.  The gust front blew tons of pollen from trees and other plants.  Allergy sufferers in northern Vermont must have had a rough Sunday evening. 

I think this line of wannabe storms didn't materialize into something strong because stable air was running out ahead of the actual cold front, which was right behind this little gust front thingy.

On the bright side, the forecast for the today and tomorrow is easy. Just nice. High clouds might dim the sun at times today, but it will be refreshingly cool and dry, with highs in the low 60s.

The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks are at risk for some frost tonight, but the vast majority of us will be fine, garden wise. Tomorrow looks nice, too, with highs a little warmer, approaching a near-normal 70 degrees or so.

CANADA DERECHO

We in Vermont really dodged a bullet Saturday. True, there were some severe storms around. However, a deadly derecho in southeastern Canada missed us by a mere 100 miles or so. 

The derecho, which swept across some of the most populated regions of southern Ontario and Quebec, killed at least 8 people and caused widespread damage.  At least a half million people lost electricity. The storms were so powerful that some large metal transmission towers toppled in the winds, which gusted as high as 85 mph.  

Trees bend in hurricane force winds in this screen grab
of the derecho in Ontario Saturday.

The derecho originated in Michigan and swept through the Toronto metropolitan area and then on to Ottawa.  It weakened somewhat by the time it reached Montreal and Quebec City, but was still powerful enough to cause damage there. 

As in many derechos, the damage was concentrated in some towns while others got off with relatively light damage. The town of Uxbridge, north of Toronto, and Clarence-Rockland, east of Ottawa, suffered considerable damage to buildings, to the point where a number of homes in those communities are too damaged to be occupied.  

It might take a week or more to get power back to everyone in the derecho zone. 

Videos. As always, if you don't see the image of the video on your screen, click the hyperlinks. : 

The derecho sweeps into downtown Ottawa:

The title of this video is "Ottawa Rain Storm"  You're telling me! 

Early Sunday Afternoon Update: New Severe Storm Watch About To Go Up In Vermont, Surrounding Areas

UPDATE 6:30 pm

Relatively dramatic clouds, but no severe weather in 
northwest Vermont, with this view of Georgia, 
Vermont as an example.

The expected severe threat in Vermont is turning out to be a bust. 

On one hand that's good news, since people aren't picking up the mess left by severe weather.

Of course, the bad news is something went wrong with the forecast, at least in much of Vermont. 

A line of showers did produce a gust front with 30-35 mph winds. There might have been locally somewhat higher gusts. I know a tree fell in Bakersfield, which took down a power line and  started a fire that closed Route 36 near the intersection with Route 108. 

A severe storm or two could still pop up in southeastern Vermont until about 8 p.m. or so, but the the threat isn't super high. 

In northwestern Vermont, temperatures were crashing toward the 50s behind the cold front. Light rain showers will probably linger for a few hours here and there. Nothing severe though! 

I'll have more details in tomorrow morning's post about why the forecast was off, at least for the most part in Vermont 

UPDATE: 1:15 pm

Environment Canada has issued a tornado watch in southern Quebec in areas closest to the Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine borders.

Also, 15 minutes after I finished writing this update post (around 1 pm.) I now see convection starting to fire up in New York State. That will develop fast for the next few hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at around 12:30 today issued a statement that they were getting ready to issue a severe thunderstorm watch for northern New England. 

This is as expected, because the risk of severe weather for this afternoon has been advertised for days. 

The Storm Prediction Center's statement is forecasting the risk of  damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two in northern New England. 

As of 12:45 p.m., there was almost no shower or storm activity anywhere near Vermont.  I'm a little surprised nothing has gotten going yet. But that should change soon. 

A line of thick clouds was entering the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and I think the difference in the amount of heat to the east verses under the cloud bank will be where the main line of storms start. So this will be an event pretty much confined to the Adirondacks and Hudson Valley, then points east into New England.

NOAAs's Storm Prediction Center anticipates a
severe thunderstorm watch to be issues soon in
northern New England. 

Some thunderstorms will probably develop ahead of this expected line as well. We'll have to watch those especially carefully, because the storms ahead of the main line can form into supercells. Supercells are especially prone to throwing out damaging winds gusts, car-denting hail, and that quite low but real tornado risk. 

Cleanup in Williston, Vermont this morning after severe
storms mowed down several trees in town Saturday.
Additional severe storms could create added damage
in a few Vermont towns today. 

This is especially true in the northern half of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and much of Maine. 

I'm sure that severe thunderstorm, or perhaps even a tornado watch will be in effect by 3 p.m. if not well before that. 

We're most at risk for storms, again, some of those damaging, between 2 and 9 p.m today. Western Vermont will see the storms begin and end soonest, while eastern Vermont will be last to finish up this evening. 

This all comes after a few severe thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday. I was in Williston this morning and was impressed by the number of fallen branches and trees. 

Some of the fallen trees were huge. Route 2 on French Hill between Williston and Richmond was closed this morning, presumably because of storm damage. 

 

Saturday Storms Did Pop In A Few Areas: More Vermont Severe Weather Today

A volatile looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont Saturday
evening as severe thunderstorms passed by well north
and south of town. 

 Saturday's storm development, almost surprisingly, developed about as expected in Vermont. That was just round one.  Round 2 of severe weather is still in the forecast today. 

A derecho developed around Michigan early Saturday then roared through the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.  I saw one estimate that indicated that since this hit so many urban areas, the line of storms affected half of Canada's population. 

Damage was especially intense in and around Toronto. 

The derecho passed north of Vermont, but was a catalyst to break a cap, which was a warm layer of air high above. 

This allowed thunderstorms to develop rapidly in northern New York and Vermont and race across the area, mostly along and north of Route 2.  As expected, the intense storms were hit and miss, and most people did not have anything too intense.

Even so, winds of at least 55 mph downed trees in Williston. Quite a bit of tree damage was reported around Eden, too. Another severe storm skirted the International Border between Alburgh and Franklin, dumping hail up to the size of half dollars and causing additional tree damage.

Another wave of thunderstorms - not severe but with plenty of lightning - zipped across northern Vermont late last night. That storm caused a power outage lasting two and a half hours at my place in St. Albans. 

It'll be quiet this morning and then we have another risk of those strong to severe storms. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking today's storms will be a little easier to forecast compared to yesterday.

Until the storms started developing Saturday, there were questions as to whether there would be enough of a trigger to launch those storms. Turned out there was, at least sort of.

Today, we know we'll have the trigger in the form of an approaching cold front and something called a pre-frontal trough out ahead of it. A pre-frontal trough is very common with summer cold fronts. It's just a pocket of lower pressure ahead of the cold front that causes a bit of a wind shift. That's an easy trigger for storms. 

So we'll end up with clusters of storms along this pre-frontral trough this afternoon, and probably with the cold front itself. Usually the pre-frontal thunderstorms are the stronger ones. 

This will be a west to east affair, starting around  1 or 2 p.m.- ish in New York and proceeding across Vermont from mid-afternoon into the early evening. 

This means the activity will come through after the University of Vermont's outdoor graduation ceremony today. But if you're going, drink plenty of water and bring sunscreen. It's very warm and quite humid out there 

As of early this morning, Vermont remains in a slight risk zone for severe storms, a level 2 of 5 alert. This means the biggest threat from the storms is, as usual, strong gusty winds. Most people won't see damage, but there will be pockets in which the wind will be strong enough to toss down trees and power lines once again. There could be some isolated areas of large hail, the size of quarters or half dollars again. 

Once again, there's a very, very remote chance of a quick spin up tornado, but that's quite unlikely. There's a slightly greater chance of a quick twister in western Maine. 

It'll turn noticeably cooler overnight tonight, and the first half of the week is still looking nice, with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the 60s to around 70

 

UPDATE: Could Be A Really Interesting Afternoon/Evening In/Around Vermont

Interesting satellite image early this afternoon. That big
blob to the left are intense thunderstorms around Toronto.
There's some sort of boundary heading east across
northern New York. That COULD be a trigger for
storms in the next couple of hours, but a warm layer
aloft might squelch that. Storms are developing
in Quebec, a few of which might become tornadic
thunderstorms up there. Outflow from the Canadian
storms MIGHT help trigger strong storms here later today.

UPDATE 3 pm.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has indicated they will likely soon issue a severe thunderstorm watch for far northern New York, Vermont north of Route 2, northern New Hampshire and western Maine. 

That band of severe storms from Ontario could clip the region. Other storms were starting to fire up in Quebec and might sag south toward the International Border with time later this afternoon.

These storms, in they make it into our region, have the potential to cause really damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center says a tornado can't be ruled out. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 No promises, but things are shaping up to be potentially wild in parts of Vermont, especially north later today.   

They're certainly pretty wild in southern Canada.

As of 1 p.m. a cluster of intense thunderstorms was roaring through the Toronto metro area, packing winds of up to 85 mph. Lots of damage has been reported. It's racing east/northeastward toward Quebec.

I think this patch of storms will go by to our north, but outflow boundaries - the remnants of the storms' gusts fronts, could head south. These boundaries can act like mini cold fronts, acting as a trigger for abrupt, severe storms. 

Meanwhile, some forecasts are calling for supercells and tornadoes in southern Quebec and far western Maine today. These storms might also generate outflow boundaries, those little cold fronts, to help trigger more storms. 

Lots of things are in place for intense storms today. The main thing blocking the development of these storms is a layer of warm air aloft.  It's possible those outflow boundaries could be enough for wannabe thunderstorms to pop through that warm layer and really develop.

Also, lake breezes in the Great Lakes and even Lake Champlain could create enough of a disturbance to help trigger upward motion and storms. 

Skies really cleared up this morning, too, so the hot sun is helping to destabilize the atmosphere. 

There was a weird, narrow line of clouds in northern New York at 1 p.m. that also represents some sort of boundary. Things can get going ahead of that, but unlikely.

There's cumulus clouds out ahead of this line of clouds, but a patch of clear skies behind it. That patch of clear skies indicates sinking air. Sinking air hinders thunderstorms. So if that little line of clouds goes through Vermont uneventfully this afternoon that patch of sinking air could move in and MIGHT postpone storm development until late afternoon or evening. 

So yes, there's a lot of ifs, ands or buts with this afternoon's forecast. There's TONS of potential for some rocking, severe thunderstorms in and near Vermont later today. The only question is whether there will be enough of a trigger to actually launch them. 

If anything develops, the main threat still looks like it would be strong, damaging winds. Hail could be an issue to. Since we're in fairly close proximity to that "spin" the the atmosphere over Quebec, there's still a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado in northern Vermont - IF the storms actually erupt.

It's one of those days that might end up being super wild, or a big yawner.  Rare that we don't know what will happen just a couple, few hours before the event, but there you go. 

 

Hot, Noisy Weekend In Vermont, Then Spring Returns

A long skinny zone from Texas to Maine, including
Vermont, has some risk of severe thunderstorms later today.

 The forecast has only undergone some minor changes for this weekend, so expect a lot of sweat and a fair amount of noise from the weather here in the Green Mountain State.

We still have a heat advisory for the low elevations of western and southeastern Vermont. I have questions as to whether it will get as hot as forecast, especially in northwestern Vermont. 

Debris clouds from storms that developed in the Great Lakes, Ontario and western Quebec are moving through.  These clouds might not fully clear out, and that would keep the temperatures down a little for the day.

Still, it will be very warm and oppressively muggy. 

Meanwhile, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has bumped us up from a marginal to slight risk of severe storms today and this evening. That's level 2 of a five point scale of risk. 

As described over the past couple of days, we're still looking at both the instability that would encourage strong storms and the cap, or warm layer of air aloft, which would squelch them. Which of the two will win?

It's looking like the result of this tug and war in the atmosphere will be hit or miss storms. Where storms can get going this afternoon, they'll quickly become strong. I think, but don't guarantee, that the afternoon storms, if they develop, will be few and far between. But again, those isolated storms could easily pack a punch.

Additional storms expected to form in New York this afternoon could arrive in Vermont this evening, again in hit or miss fashion. Those evening boomers, I suspect, will be somewhat more widespread, especially in northern Vermont. Again, though, hit and miss, not everybody gets rocked. 

The main threat from any storms later today will be strong, straight line winds and hail up to the size of a quarter.   Since it's so humid, some storms could have briefly torrential rain.  There is a very, very low, but not zero risk of a quick spin up tornado, but I'm really doubting that, to be honest.

 We can only keep an eye on things and see how they develop. 

The severe storm risk is more limited to
our neck of the woods Sunday. 

Tonight's not going to be great for sleeping. First, it will be muggy and sticky. We could also see a few thunderstorms roam through here and there to wake you up if you do manage to sleep. 

Tomorrow's still a day to watch.  Still no guarantees, but conditions do seem favorable for a line of strong storms to bust through in the afternoon as a cold front comes in. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with - again - damaging straight line winds the main threat. 

There could be hail, and again, a very, very, low risk of a quick spin up twister along the line of storms, but again, doubtful. (You never know, though, right, Charlestown, New Hampshire?).

Sunday afternoon's storms, at least some of them, could also contain torrential rain. But the storms will be zipping right along, so it won't rain hard for long in any one place, so I'm not too worried about flash flooding. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has us in a low risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Sunday.

We turn cooler and springlike again for the first half of the week.  We'll have to watch the second half of the week, as there's some (very uncertain) potential for some heavy rains. 

April Was World's Fifth Hottest, Continuing A Consistent Trend

Most of the world was once again warmer than the average
of all the years since 1880. Only the eastern Pacfic
and northwestern North America were on the cool side. 

As I wrote a month ago, it seems like on a global basis, every month for at least the past year or so has been around the fifth hottest on record.  

Add April, 2022 to that list. The month tied with 2010 as the fifth hottest on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

So, we'll do the same thing we' e done every month, with this slightly updated sentence, taking into account April's global temperature, and quote this familiar sounding sentence from the April report: 

"The 1 warmest April months have occurred since 2010, with the years 2014-2022 all ranking among the 10 warmest Aprils on record. This marked the 46th consecutive April and the 448th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average."

As always, there were a few small cold pockets in a world of heat. 

North America did manage to have its chilliest April since 2018, which isn't really saying all that much. That was driven by persistent chill in southern Canada and the northern United States west of the Great Lakes. 

The only other notable cool spot, at least relative to the rest of the world, was the eastern Pacific Ocean.

That was a sign that the La Nina pattern is still going full throttle. La Nina is a periodic cooling of swaths of the Pacific Ocean. This normally has a slight cooling effect on the world's temperature as a whole.

But as we've seen over the past year, this "cooling" pressure is preventing individual months from being the hottest on record. But we're still scoring in the top 10 each month.  This is all an ominous sign for when we someday finally flip over to an El Nino, which warms both the eastern Pacific Ocean and the world in general. 

A record setting warm month would likely really set off some dangerous, extreme weather events across the globe. As if we're not having enough of them already. 

Every April temperature for the world as a whole, 
the departure from normal, since 1880. See a trend?

La Nina is forecast to last for several more months at least. That's bad news if you don't like hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico threatening the U.S. coastline. 

La Nina tends to encourage Atlantic hurricanes. It's a big reason why we've had such busy hurricane seasons yearly since 2017. This year is looking bad, too.

Pretty much all the hurricane forecasters are calling for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. The only question is how many of these storms end up hitting the coast. 

The first four months of the year, taken together, are also the fifth warmest on record. Given the ongoing La Nina the year at this point "only" has a 27.8 percent chance of being among the five hottest on record. It's pretty much a lock already for being among the 10 warmest. 

In April, no nation or territory established an all time record high temperature,. That's to be expected, since April is the middle of spring or autumn, depending upon which hemisphere you're in. Obviously, national heat records would be established in the summer. 

However, so far this year, three nations - Paraguay, Uruguay and Australia - have established or tied national heat records. 

 

More Needed Rain, And Multifaceted Challenging Vermont Weekend Forecasts

Yesterday we bought the annuals we need to make our pots
planters and window boxes look lovely for the summer.
It's going to be hot, humid work starting this job
over the weekend. 

 We're used to ifs ands or buts in Vermont weather forecasts as the Green Mountain State can be a challenging place to forecast what the heck will come out of the sky, if anything.  

This weekend is a classic case in point, with questions about how hot it will get both days, whether severe thunderstorms manage to pop up later Saturday, and how widespread showers and storms might be on Sunday. 

Prepare for surprises, but also prepare to sweat it out: It's going to be an oppressively warm to hot, and very humid weekend. 

First, though, a quick review of yesterday's little soaker. In northern Vermont, the rain was a little heavier than forecast. Which is a good thing, to keep things well wetted down.  Most of us got a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few drier spots here and there. 

In Burlington, yesterday's rain brought the month's total so far in May to 2.2 which is right at normal for this date of the month. That's also more rain than fell all of last May, when we had just 1.42 inches. 

Next up, let's untangle the weather for the next few days. Do note that the forecast will almost definitely change one way or another, but this is what it looks like at this point:

TODAY

Today will be a big transition day. It's starting off chilly with partly cloudy to clear skies, with plenty of areas of dense fog. The fog will burn off quickly, and temperatures will zoom up to around 80 degrees by mid to late afternoon. You'll notice humidity starting to creep up as well. 

The question marks for today and this evening are a fairly strong disturbance passing to our south and a weaker one tonight to our north. The southern one will probably set off a few severe thunderstorms in and around Pennsylvania. 

Up here, definitely nothing severe, but some showers of a rumble of thunder could develop overnight because of the two systems. It will end up being muggy overnight, too.  

SATURDAY

Hoo-boy, you're going to be hot. Temperatures in the warmer valleys could easily get to 90 degrees unless more clouds roll in than expected. This hot spell is going to be much more humid than the one last week, so it will feel worse. 

Bad enough for the National Weather Service to hoist Vermont's first heat advisories of this summer season. Those heat advisories are in effect Saturday afternoon and evening in the Champlain Valley and low elevations of southwestern Vermont from about Milton south, and for the lower Connecticut River Valley from about White River Junction south. 

The heat index in the advisory zones will be around 95 degrees. If you're outside the heat advisory zone, it's still going to be uncomfortable.  At this point, the actual high temperature for Burlington Saturday is 92 degrees, which would tie the record for the date. We shall see! 

The forecast for thunderstorms Saturday hasn't changed much from the CAPE vs cap discussion I had yesterday.

CAPE, the potential for storms in the atmosphere will be really high, but you need a trigger for storms, and a way for them to get going. A layer of warm air aloft - which is the cap - will tend to prevent the towering updrafts that lead to thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms  - level 2 of 5 alert levels
for us on Sunday

However, the air tomorrow will be volatile with the CAPE. If any updrafts break the cap, chances are the updraft would quickly become a strong to severe thunderstorm.  As it looks now, any storms that form late tomorrow afternoon or evening will be few and far between so that most of us will be unaffected. But if one forms near year, watch out, it could be a doozy.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms Saturday, the lowest level of alert in a five point scale. 

Saturday night will be stuffy with just a chance of a lingering storm. 

SUNDAY

Everything on Sunday depends on the timing of a cold front, how many clouds are out ahead of it, and how hot it gets.

We know Sunday will be quite humid.  If there's some sun, as currently expected, we'd get up into the upper 80s.

With the cold front approaching there's a decent shot of thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening, and some could be severe. 

How extensive the storms will be will depend on a few factors. If most of the day is cloudy, that would minimize instability and reduce the chances of severe weather. 

If we have a period of sunshine in the late morning to early and mid afternoon that would increase the chance of severe weather. 

We'll know more details as we get closer. For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk zone for severe storms. 

MONDAY

Blessedly much. much cooler and much, much less humid. 

A Rather Wild May Weather Month Continuing In Vermont, Elsewhere Too

On this cool, cloudy morning, the progression of spring
continues in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens. The
daffodils have faded away, and now the irises and 
peonies are budding, preparing for their show. 

After a stunningly gorgeous, perfect spring day on Wednesday in Vermont, we're back to the roller coaster ride of changeable weather.  It's a pattern that's affecting much of the nation. In some places much more dramatically than here in New England. 

We'll start with the local stuff first. Today will certainly not be as brilliant as Wednesday as a fast moving weather disturbance zips through.  

We're starting off cool today. There's even a little frost in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. With the clouds with this weather disturbance now in place, temperatures won't be able to rise much today. Especially as the rain moves in.  

Most of us will stay in the 50s, which is more than 10 degrees on the cool side. This relative chill is not that odd for this time of year. (The record lowest "high" temperature on this date in Burlington is 43 degrees in 1976).

Rainfall will only amount to a quarter inch today, give or take.  There might be some embedded heavier showers or even a rumble of thunder which would create locally higher amounts of rain. But we'll fall far, far short of any flooding concerns. It's just a little water for the gardens so that you won't have to drag the hoses to the raised beds today. 

The weather variety show continues on Friday as things turn dramatically different again. Winds will turn gusty from the south, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Friday afternoon, instead of 10 degrees cooler than normal, we'll be ten degrees above normal - near 80 degrees. 

Another couple of acts arrive for our variety show on Saturday. It will be a sultry summer day, with highs in 85 to 90 degree range. It will be humid. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, some ingredients for strong storms will be in place by later Saturday afternoon, but there won't be much in the way to trigger much of anything.

When forecasting thunderstorms, one of many things meteorologists look at is CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy.  This is all a way to determine instability in the atmosphere and the strength of updrafts. The higher the CAPE value the higher the risk of thunderstorms, some strong to severe.

Here in Vermont, if you see CAPE values above 2,000 joules per kilogram (J/kg) we have ingredients for bopping boomers for sure.  CAPE values Saturday afternoon or evening are expected to be in the 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg range.

But CAPE is just one ingredient. You need multiple ingredients, not just flour, to make a cake. Likewise, numerous ingredients need to come together to create a tasty thunderstorm. 

It's unusual to see northern New England and Near
York highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center's
four day outlook, but there we are! 

On Saturday, just to make things confusing, a cap will be fighting the CAPE.  A cap is a warm layer in the atmosphere that stops those CAPE updrafts in their tracks, preventing thunderstorms from developing. 

Sometimes updrafts can break through a cap. There's a chance that could happen in a couple places in Vermont toward the end of the day Saturday. 

If that happens,  a couple strong thunderstorms could abruptly develop.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of Vermont in a marginal risk zone (level 1 of 5 risk category) for severe storms Saturday for this reason. 

More interestingly the Storm Prediction Center Day 4 outlook for Sunday has us in a risk zone for severe storms. Usually, when the SPC is bullish on severe storms that far in advance, you really want to pay attention.

Still, everything has to come together just right for this to happen. Sunday could be an active day, or it could be a bust. It's just something to watch for now.  

The variety show continues after Sunday when the hot, humid air is replaced by the kind of weather we had yesterday. A springtime beauty curtain call, if you will. 

COLORADO VARIETY PACK

If you really want variety, go to Colorado. In some parts of that state, they were under a severe thunderstorm watch last evening, and find themselves this morning simultaneously under fire alerts and a winter storm watch. 

Hot, dry winds today will increase the risk of wildfires in Colorado and most of the rest of the Southwest today. 

A developing storm will pull cold air into the high country of the Rockies. Highs today around Denver will be in the upper 80s but only in the upper 40s and falling through the day Friday. Two to six inches of snow are likely in much of the Denver and Boulder metro areas. With leaves on the trees, this situation might cause a lot of damage as the weight of the snow on leaves snaps branches and power lines. 

The mountains could see a foot or more of snow.

Meanwhile, parts of Iowa and Wisconsin are bracing for tornadoes today, one or two of which might be quite strong. And North Dakota is flooding again. 

I guess Vermont's weather variety show isn't as scary as that in other parts of the nation.