Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Snow In Vermont Mountains This Morning. It's Clearing Up, But Summer Weather Remains Days Away

Snow at the measuring stake near the top of
Sugarbush Resort, Vermont, elevation
 about 4,000 feet as snow dusted the 
peaks of New England overnight. 
 

 Our impressive and cold storm that came at us from Canada is winding down, and yes, it did snow in the mountains. 

I was checking out web cams, and the cameras that aren't frozen solid at summit definitely showed snow. 

The Bolton Mountain web cam showed wind-blown flurries early this morning. The Heaven's Gate web cam atop Sugarbush Ski Resort, at about 4,000 feet elevation showed a solid coating of snow 

The rainfall from this storm was impressive for what should be a cold, dry storm from the Arctic. The dynamics in this thing were incredible and were really able to wring the moisture out of the air. 

Montpelier has had at least 1.37 inches - it was still raining lightly there when I checked. St. Johnsbury clocked in at 1.73 inches. I'm betting we'll have a couple places in the Northeast Kingdom go over two inches. 

Enough rain fell around the White Mountains that a flood warning was issued for the area around Conway, New Hampshire. The Saco River there was expected to reach minor flood stage there. 

Weather geeks like me were fascinated by this storm. It was tiny in area, but it has been a powerhouse. While it was still in Quebec, the storm formed a cold front of sorts that managed to sweep a line of some strong thunderstorms through parts of northern New York and Vermont. Radar indicated outflow winds of 50 mph or so over Lake Champlain.

The "cold front" became more south to north oriented or even southeast to northwest oriented over eastern Vermont. That tapped a moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean, helping to explain the heavy rains. 

Further west, there was a sharp cutoff in the amount of rainfall. Burlington has 0,6 inches of rain. Plattsburgh had a little under a half inch. 

The storm was pulling away to the south and east as of 9 a.m. this morning, taking its precipitation with it. 

REST OF TODAY

Radar mage of the storm last night at around 10:30 p.m.
The center of the storm was about over Montreal
at the time. 

It's actually going to be a fairly nice day after the rest of the rain stops this morning. It was already sunny and breezy here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. That trend will cover the entire state today. 

It'll feel like the end of April instead of the end of May. Temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 50s, with maybe a couple low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY

Another disturbance will come in from the north much like last night's did. But this one will be much weaker. 

We'll just have increasing clouds with a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs should get well into the 60s, but that's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More cool weather, more showers as a deep dip in the jet stream stays over or just east of New England.  Much of the time will be dry, and highs will e in the 60s to near 70

BEYOND TUESDAY. It looks like the deep dip in the jet stream might evolve into a cut off low near or just off the East Coast. A cut off low is a storm that meanders around, not moving north because the jet stream has moved off to the north. The jet stream being to the north, there's nothing to push the storm along. 

Fingers crossed, the cut off low will hopefully be too far south to bother us. If that forecasts pans out, then the second half of the week would be dry and warm. 

Severe Storm Risk Is Still Iffy In Vermont Today. Rain And Much Cooler Weather Tomorrow Is NOT Iffy

A severe thunderstorm over Lake Champlain in July, 2023.
Severe storms are possible in Vermont today, if
the right factors come together. We won't know until
shortly before the storms develop. 

 We're starting the day really mild, especially in the Champlain Valley, where temperatures were in the low 60s at dawn.

Such warm temperatures to start the day might make you feel like that risk of severe storms today will come true. After all, summer-like temperatures equal summer-like storms, right?

Well, maybe.

Meteorologists are not much closer to figuring out today's severe weather risk than they were yesterday. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their overnight forecast discussion, we're reduced to "nowcasting," which means we'll only know whether any severe weather looms just hours or even less than an hour before they actually hit. If they hit. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has northern New York and northern New England under a marginal risk of severe weather today. That's level one of five, the lowest alert level. The SPC is also sort of into "nowcasting" with this, saying they'll upgrade to a level 2 slight risk if later forecasts increase the amount of instability in the air 

For Vermont, the marginal risk covers the entire state except areas right along the Massachusetts border. 

One limiting factor might be what was going on just after dawn today.  Light rain showers were over the Champlain Valley, and somewhat more substantial showers were in central New York, heading east towards us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has for now
kept a marginal risk of severe storms over norther
New England (dark green shading). I the risk
of storms seems to increase later this morning,
it'll go to level 2 slightly risk, like what you
see over Arkansas in this map. 

Showers and clouds this morning would tend to suppress instability, and that would more or less squash severe storm potential.  If skies clear up by early afternoon, we could maintain the instability and fire up the storms.  

The amount of moisture in the air is another key factor. Some forecasts show slightly higher humidity today than what was thought yesterday,  which is good if you want storms. 

But other forecasts mix drier air from aloft down to the surface this afternoon, which would lower the humidity. Pick your poison, I guess.

The wind situation thousands of feet overhead are great if severe storms are your thing. If storms can get going, they have the chance of "grabbing" pieces of that high speed air and bringing it to the surface as damaging wind gusts. 

Whether these storms develop depends on whether an approaching cold front can team up with enough instability from sunshine to allow thunderstorms to erupt. If, by noon it's nice and sunny out, we have a  good chance of some good storms to fire up. If it's cloudy and showery, you can't necessarily kiss the severe storms goodbye, but the chances of them actually happening get pretty low
. 

NOAA says if we do see severe storms today, they'll take the form of either what they call bowing echoes or brief supercells. 

Bowing echoes are short lines of thunderstorms. If you look at a bowing echo on radar, the line of storms is shaped like a backwards "C"  The front part of that backwards "C" that sticks out ahead of the rest of the line of thunderstorms is where you'd see those damaging wind gusts. 

Or, we could see some brief, or what NOAA calls transient supercells. It makes it sound like those poor supercells are unhoused. What they really mean is the supercells wouldn't last as long as they usually do. Midwestern supercells can last for many hours. In this case, not so much. 

Still, those "transient" supercells can cause damaging winds and maybe some hail.  Since supercells tend to spin, we'd still have a very, very, very, low risk of a brief tornado. A low risk but not no risk. 

If we do get those rambunctious thunderstorms, they'll come through between about 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

Overall, most of Vermont will not see severe storms today. If we get any damaging winds from the storms, it would be in just a few spots. But we don't know which spots yet, so keep an ear to weather radio or reliable weather forecasting sources like the National Weather  Service or the local TV meteorologists for updates. 

Other than the storms, today will be breezy to windy, especially in the Champlain Valley. Most of us will get well into the 70s before the showers or storms arrive. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

Meteorologists aren't sure about today's thunderstorms, but they are sure we're going to get pretty damned wet overnight tonight and tomorrow

Today's shower and thunderstorms will evolve into a steady rain tonight which should pretty much continue through Wednesday. It's looking like a nice soaker, which we need. 

Total rainfall today through tomorrow night looks like it'll amount to more than inch across most of Vermont. Some areas of central Vermont, especially in and near the Green Mountains, could close in on two inches. 

Aside from brief, torrential downpours if thunderstorms develop today, the rain will come down at a slow enough pace that means we shouldn't see any flooding. Rivers will rise and become turbulent, of course, so kayaking in them is probably a bad idea for a couple or few days. 

The weather misery index of Wednesday is really high, though. With the steady, day-long rain, temperatures should only hold near 50 degrees, except maybe somewhat warmer than that in far southern Vermont. 

AFTER TOMORROW

We still have another round in which we spend several days with below normal temperatures and a risk of showers at almost any time. Aside from tomorrow, it won't be as cold as it was last weekend, with highs most days in the mid 50s to low 60s.  Sunday might actually be a little warmer, getting into the near-normal 60s. 

This pattern still looks like it will hold more or less in place through at least May 18 or so.  Most of the showers between Thursday and May 18 are looking very much on the light side, at least so far. That means it's actually good that Wednesday will be so miserable and rainy.  

Time To Say Goodbye To New England's Biggest Snowman Since Perhaps 2008

The giant snowman in Shirley, 
Massachusetts, lit up at night. 

The forecast in New England calls for warm weather later this weekend and next week, so it might be time to say a fond farewell to Parker the giant snowman. Maybe. 

I say maybe because Parker is so big that it will take a lot of thawing to get rid of him.

He was built in February, towering 20 feet above an adjacent street in Shirley, Massachusetts. Then the big blizzard hit in late February, so Parker grew to 23 feet tall. 

Video of all this is at the bottom of this post. 

No offense to Parker, but he's a fat guy. He's a little wider at the base as he is tall. That's for stability's sake.  Parker's eyes, mouth, arms and buttons down his front also light up at night. 

His hat is a trash can atop a circular four-foot piece of plywood. 

Parker is named after the street in Shirley, Massachusetts where he and his creators live.  Said creator are the Aalerud family, especially Eric Aalerud, who built most of Parker. 

When Parker was a mere 20 feet tall, Eric Aalerud told WHDH 7 News in Boston that the creation of Parker was a lot of work.

"I was very sore.....And I'm an electrician and I flip houses, too, And I will say, I was more sore doing this than anything I've done in the last five, 10 years."

Aalerud used a snowblower, a shovel, wood and a ladder to build Parker, then sprayed water on the giant snowman to freeze everything. 

 Last year, the family built a smaller, but still impressive snowman that stood 15 feet tall. That one lasted until the end of March. 

Parker is now where close to  being the largest snowman in U.S. history. 

That honor goes to a snowwoman named Olympia, who was built in Bethel, Maine during the snowy winter of 2008. She was 122 feet and one inch tall and had a 125-foot diameter at the base, which is still in the Guinness Book of World Records as biggest snowman.  About 13 million pounds of snow created Olympia. 

Her arms consisted of 27-foot tall evergreens. Here "carrot" nose, which was painted by school children is eight foot long. Here eyes were made of giant wreaths. 

Back in Shirley, Massachusetts, Aalerud vows to build an even bigger snowman next winter. And perhaps give the future Parker a wife named Shirley, after the town they're in, of course. They'd better hope next winter is an even snowier one than this one was in Massachusetts.  

Video:

News video about the giant snowman. Eric Aalerud's New England accent helps. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Yes, Big Blizzards Can Counterintuitively Be A Sign Of Climate Change

Satellite view of the immense nor'easter this week that
caused the record snows in New England

Climate change skeptics scoff, but sometimes, extreme winter weather is made worse because of a warming planet. 

That might well be the case with the big Blizzard of 2026.

Every big storm depends on a rich supply of ocean moisture to do its handiwork. In the northern hemisphere, that moisture usually comes from south of the actual storm.  

Our nor'easter pulled deep, warm tropical moisture off the Atlantic Ocean. That moisture smacked into relatively  cold air over the Northeast. The water in the air froze as countless snowflakes, which piled up to record levels in parts of New England. 

That this was a record snow event was telling.  A warmer world, a warmer ocean can pull more moisture into the atmosphere than our former cooler world would have been able to do.  This is a big reason why our storm this week over-performed. 

It wasn't a one-off either. 

While overall winter snowfall isn't really increasing in the Northeast, individual snowstorms are tending to get bigger..

Six of Boston's 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred since 2003. Seven of New York City's ten biggest snowstorms on record have also all occurred since 2003.

This isn't just a coastal thing. Inland, in Burlington Vermont, eleven of the top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit since 2001.

TEMPERATURE NUANCES

One other nuance helped turn the Blizzard of '26 into the monster it was.

Not all ocean water stays warm all the time in our hotter world. Regional weather patterns over a few weeks or even a whole season can make a big difference.

It's been cold in the Northeast this winter, as you might have noticed. That has made the ocean water right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts chillier than usual. 

Storms like nor'easters prefer to form and more along a steep cold to warm ocean temperature gradient.  Essentially, storms want to "find" the warmer water.  This storm found climate changed hotter water a bit further offshore than it usually does, as the Washington Post reports.  

Many nor'easters like to find that temperature gradient near what is known as the "benchmark" which is 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees longitude, which is off the southeast corner of New England

This time, that temperature gradient in the ocean water was a little more offshore than usual, this storm passed over about 68 degrees longitude or about 100 miles east of the benchmark. This slight eastward shift allowed the precipitation to stay all snow in Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. It also funneled the heaviest precipitation into that area. 

Had the storm gone right over the benchmark, Providence and southeast Massachusetts might have had a period of rain thrown into the storm. The heaviest snow would have fallen in somewhat less populated areas like central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. 

 Of course, some nor'easters hug the coast or even go inland a bit, temperature gradients be damned. ,  In those cases, interior New England gets all the heavy snow. while areas closer to the coast mostly see heavy rain, high winds and storm surges.  

STRONGER STORMS

Studies are showing that not only are nor'easters getting wetter, they're getting stronger. 

Stronger storms tend to create heavier precipitation. The barometric pressure in thie center of this nor'easter was exceeding low. A deep storm like that creates big pressure differences over a short distance.  The pressure diffeences create strong winds which cause lift in the atmosphere. The vigorous lift  that turned the moisture the storm drew from the Atlantic Ocean into very heavy snow, as the Washington Post notes. 

That robust lift in the atmosphere also help create thunder snow in some areas hit hardest by the storm.

Record big snowstorms in the past like the Blizzard of '78, the hundred hour storm in February, 1969 and the Christmas Week storm in northwest New England in December, 1969 were so severe because the nor'easters involved slowed down dramatically or stalled, adding to the accumulation. 

Those stalling storms are rare, which is one reason why two to three foot deep New England blizzards were once so rare.

More recent record breakers, like this week's storm, moved forward at a decent pace with no stalls  They were able to dump enormous amounts of snow within 24 hours. 

Now, a brief visit by a nor'easter often does all the damage that was once only made possible by lingering storms. 

It makes me wonder if another Blizzard of '26 is not all that far off in our future.  

Some Of The Best Videos To Come Out Of The Blizzard Of ' 26

Blizzard aftermath in Fall River, Massachusetts. This
city reported the most snow out of the storm - 41 inches. 

The Blizzard of '26 was certainly one of the most photogenic storms we've had. 

The blinding snow, the coastal flooding and the immense effort to clean it all up made for some good visuals.  

There is of course TONS of videos taken in the storm. I'm sure I missed some really good ones But I found some dramatic and cool videos too.

We have some of them here. 

Here's how New York City looked. I'll never understand why New Yorkers try to use umbrellas in blizzards. Anyway, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

As always, videographer John Petramala went out into the storm, hanging out amid the whiteouts, waves and storm tides of Scituate, Massachusetts. Toward the end of the video, I'm not sure what's up with the driver of the white car, but JEEZ! Again, click on this link to view or if you see it, click on the image below. 

One man's experience battling the blizzard from his home in Rhode Island. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.  

News report from Sandwich, Massachusetts on Cape Cod give you an idea of just how extreme the blizzard was.  Click on this link

We have more of the obligatory nor'easter ocean waves crashing onto Scituate, Massachusetts houses, and also the whiteout conditions on local highways, and stuck cars. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that.

Really cool mostly drone video by Aaron Rigby of people in Providence, Rhode Island neighborhoods trying to dig out from the city's biggest snowstorm on record, the day after the snow ended. You can see  some side streets hadn't been touched by city plows yet. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In Herbert Von King Park in Brooklyn, New York, area residents turned the open space into a snow sculpture park. It appears dozens of them are there. There's even an igloo where the television reporter conducted part of her interview. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Blizzard of '26 Peaking This Morning; Southeast New England Hardest Hit

Satellite view this morning of the extreme nor'easter creating
the northeast blizzard. Note the eye-like feature of the
storm center, the cold front extending down through the
Bahamas and the bumpy look to the clouds in
southeast New England, which indicates very heavy snow

As expected the Blizzard of '26 raged all night and is still going strong. 

The only major change is that it made a slight jog to the south, so the northern fringes of the storm won't be as snowy as first thought. That affects us here in Vermont, but we were never going to get the brunt of this thing anyway. 

More on the Vermont forecast further down in this post. 

Southeastern New England and Long Island, New York seem to be the hardest hit places. Again, that was expected, but it's literally cold comfort to the people who live there. Or anywhere else affected by the blizzard.

As of 7:30 or so this morning, more tham 5,600 flights had been canceled today, according to FlightAware.com

Also as of 7:30 this morning, about 463,000 homes and businesses were without power in the Northeast. That number will certainly rise as the storm continues to rage. 

This is still obviously a developing story and there will be much more. But let's break what we've got so far down by regions.

New York/New Jersey/Southern Connecticut

Montauk Point in eastern Long Island reported a wind gust of 84 mph. Stony Brook, Long Island peaked at 74 mph. Many gusts in the New York, metro area and New Jersey were in the 55 to 65 mph range.

Through 7 a.m. Quague New York, on Long Island had 23.5 inches of new snow. Islip, Long Island reported 22 inches of new snow. New London, Connecticut had 17 inches and the Bronx had 15 inches 20. Central Park also reported 15 inches of snow, the most in a single storm since 17.4 inches in 2021. It was still snowing as of 7:15 a.m, so Central Park will likely go over that 2021 total

 There were many reports of 12 to 16 inches in New Jers3ey. It was still snowing at 7 a.m., so those totals will go up. 

So far, about 126,000 customers had lost power in New Jersey and 21,000 or so in New York. 

We're still awaiting word on how severe coastal flooding has been. I did see some video of water entering streets in Atlantic City, New Jersey.  I'm shore there is at the very least beach erosion on the Jersey Shore.

The snow should stay intense in this region until around mid-morning, when it should begin to tape off, west to east. The snow should move out entirely this afternoon, except maybe in central and eastern Long Island. Winds will stay strong and gusty, so the snow will keep blowing around.

Travel bans and states of emergency remain in effect today. 

New England Except Connecticut

Screen shot of WBZ-TV meteorologist Jacob Wycoff
enduring the blizzard blasting through 
Marshfield, Massachusetts this morning. 

The blizzard in southern and eastern New England was absolutely raging as of 8 a.m. today and the region has quite a few hours to go before it all ends.

Large areas of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts had whiteout conditions. In addition to the heavy snow, wind gusts in the 50 to 65 mph range w4re common. 

As of 7:15 a.m, 20.4 inches of snow had piled up in Exeter, Rhode Island. South Kingston, Rhode Island had 19 inches. As those reports came in, the heaviest snowfall was covering almost all of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts from about Boston south. 

Snowfall rates of three inches per hour in spots should continue through the morning. Eastern New England should have additional accumulations this afternoon. I'm sure some towns will report 30 or more inches of snow. 

Hourly weather reports from places that still had power were insane. At 8 a.m. Hyannis, Massachusetts reported heavy snow with winds gusting to 69 mph. Nantucket was gusting to 70 mph. Boston at 8 a.m. was reporting heavy snow with north winds at 38 mph gusting to 52 mph. The weather in Providence, Rhode Island was almost identical to Boston, except Providence was gusting to 63 mph .

The snow was pretty wet and heavy, especially south and east of a Boston to Providence line. What will amount to 1 to 2 feet of wet cement style snow propelled by wind gusts to near hurricane force in an area that is both fairly heavily populated and heavily forested means big trouble. 

I'm sure trees and power lines are being absolutely mowed down as I write this. Already, as of 8 a.m., 172,000 Massachusetts homes and businesses were without power and that number was noticeably rising. 

In some areas, residents have been warned that it could take day before power is restored. And while the blizzard rages, nobody can go out and start repairs. It's just too dangerous. 

Live video from Plymouth , Massachusetts showed whiteout conditions and powerful winds. The wet snow driven by those winds appear to have utility poles leaning ominously in some areas of Plymouth. There were still a surprising number of cars o the roads, though.  

On top of everything else, coastal flooding is likely from this all along the New England coast up into Maine.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

That slight jog southward in the path of this giant nor'easter is ensuring that the Green Mountain States is escaping with minor effects.

The storm is still far enough north to keep the winter storm warning going for Bennington and Rutland  counties. Even so, total snow amounts in southernmost Vermont have been cut back a little to 4 to 8 inches.

The National Weather Service have dropped winter weather advisories in Rutland and Windsor counties, as accumulations there will fall short of the 3 to 6 inches that had been predicted yesterday. tw

The rest of Vermont could still see an inch or two of snow, with little or nothing in the Champlain Valley. 

Honestly, that's OK. Most of Vermont is deep in snow, so we didn't need the disruption of a huge blizzard. I'll take today's blustery, cloudy weather with a bit of gratitude. 

The nor'easter will provide us with cold, stiff north winds gusting to 30 mph, so open areas could see a  few problems with blowing snow.

We'll really feel the cold air in the wake of the nor'easter tonight through tomorrow night with lows in the single digits and highs Tuesday barely making it to 20 if that in many areas.

A small system will probably throw a little snow at us Wednesday. Some forecasts had called for a more substantial snowfall this coming Friday, but that's definitely looking less likely. 

Vermont/Northern New England Probably Having Coldest Winter In Lower 48

A cold winter sky over Vermont on Friday. Unlike
most of the rest of the nation, we're having a 
relatively chilly winter. Despite a modest upcoming
thaw, it doesn't look like that pattern will change
much as we go through January. 

As winters go, most of the United States, with the very notable exception of Alaska, is having a pretty easy winter. 

At least as far as temperatures go. 

There have been some horrible storms this winter, but it's been mild for most of the Lower 48. 

Except for us. Here in Vermont, it's been a chilly winter. We're in a zone stretching from  the northern Great Lakes to New England that can't seem to find the warm spells very often. 

Sure, there's been cold waves all over the United States east of the Rockies. New Year's Eve was chilly in Florida, for instance. But the dominate weather outside of New England and the northern Great Lakes has been balmy.

During the week around Christmas, the Lower 48 had around 4,700 record highs (daytime highs and record high overnight lows). During tha period, there were only 55 cold records.

As a whole, Christmas Day in the Lower 48 by a wide margin. New England was the exception. Burlington, Vermont was 5.5 degrees cooler than normal that day.

Most of the western United States had a record warm December, with temperatures running an incredible eight to 10 degrees above normal in many cities. Here in Vermont, December was about 5  degrees on the cold side. 

Today and over the past couple of days, an Arctic weather front has been draped more or less from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to southern New England. 

North of that front, the frigid weather has held firm. South of that front, temperatures are running near normal. 

THE FORECAST

For those who like cold weather in New England, this general pattern looks like it will continue. 

Oh, sure, we're still about to get a January thaw later this week and next weekend. But at least so far, the amount of warming in the forecasts look pretty unimpressive. 

Today and tomorrow will continue the cold spell we've been under for the last several days. Highs both days will be in the teens. If it manages to stay clear tonight, lows will get well below zero. A weak disturbance will probably throw a dusting of snow our way tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Another slightly stronger but still relatively insignificant storm will come through Tuesday night and Wednesday, spreading a little snow, sleet and freezing rain our way. It could be messy Wednesday  morning on the way to work. 

At this point, it looks like Wednesday and Thursday around Vermont will barely get above freezing for the start of our January "thaw." 

It still looks like a storm will go by to our west Friday and Saturday, which would boost temperatures into the low 40s for some bonafide thawing. Unless that forecasts shifts, though, the real warm air will stay suppressed to our south. 

The thaw will be brief as colder weather returns in about a week. It probably won't be as cold as it has been the past few days, but still chilly. After temperatures go back below freezing next Sunday, we'll probably go back to the same weather pattern we've been in.

That means much of the U.S. will have either normal or warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the second half of January. Here in Vermont and New England, just more winter.   

"Norlun Trough" Gives Part Of Maine A SUPER White Christmas

A Norlun trough, the dotted orange line on this map
from the storm off New England to southern Maine and 
beyond, caused heavy snow in parts of coastal Maine
Image from YouTube, Tim Kelley

 Northern New England is enjoying a white Christmas thanks to a mid-sized storm that passed through the region Tuesday and part of Wednesday.  

A section of Maine is really buried in the snow thanks to an unusual and hard to forecast phenomenon known as a Norlun Trough. 

We're geeking out a little, but here's what happened. 

As WMTW in Portland, Maine tells us, this trough is named after Steve Nogueira and Weir Lunstedt, two meteorologists who coined the term in a 1993 paper describing the phenomenon.  

They were researching a storm that dumped one to two feet of snow in parts of Maine in March, 1992. 

A Norlun trough is an elongated trough of low pressure extending outward on the northwest side of a storm sitting offshore.

The air over the ocean is cold, except for a thin layer near the surface which is heated by the relatively warm water. 

The trough is essentially a weakness in that fortress of cold air keeping that warm ocean air near the water surface. The warm ocean air shoots upward into that weakness/trough. It hits cold air above, and the moisture condenses into snow and blasts down on a small area along the Norlun trough.

More warm ocean air gets sucked into the vacuum created by that initial sharp updraft to keep the snow going. Heavy snow will fall in one spot until the Norlun trough moves away or breaks up. 

Norlun troughs are very hard to forecast, since they drop their heavy snow in a very small area. The National Weather Service office in Gray, Maine did manage to anticipate the Norlun trough Monday evening. Their forecast discussion at that time forecasted two to six inches so snow in most places. 

The forecast discussion also noted, "A Norlun trough setup may bring isolated amounts of up to a lot somewhere on the central Maine coast."

They underestimated it a little, but forecasters almost always do. But kudos to NWS/Gray for catching in advance. That doesn't always happen. 

Wednesday's Maine Norland trough meant business. Brunswick, Maine was buried beneath 16.8 inches of snow. Durham and Litchfield, Maine reported 15.5 inches. Freeport has about 16 inches. But just 20 miles away, around Portland, there was just five or six inches of new snow.  

Norlun troughs can extend inland all the way here into Vermont but their effects are often diminished this far inland.  I notices the trough Wednesday morning extended into the Northeast Kingdom, and snowfall was slightly higher there than in other parts of the state. 

Midway Through Snowstorm, Roads Are A Mess, Crashes Increasing In Vermont

Interstate 89 near Exit 16 in Colchester definitely
looked worse at noon today than it did when I '
posted a photo of the same location at around
7 a.m. this morning. There's been quite a few
crashes. Let's be careful out there! 

It's early afternoon now, and we're midway through our Vermont snowstorm. 

The snow isn't just hitting us, of course. Roads have been a mess from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and on into New England.  

One dramatic crash was down in West Virginia where a tractor trailer crashed and was left hanging off a bridge in Mason County. The driver was rescued. 

So far the storm has caused one death, out in Missouri yesterday when the beginnings of the storms snarled traffic around St. Louis. One meteorologists there said it was the worst weather-related traffic snarl he's seen in decades.

Now the storm is in New England, and causing its own traffic trouble here. There's plenty of examples here in Vermont. 

Up here in St Albans, the city police department said one its cruisers was hit by another car on a snowy road while responding to another crash. 

Some of the various examples I've seen in Vermont at different times this morning included a crash that dropped northbound Interstate 89 in Williston down to one lane for a time. Route 7 in Ferrisburgh was closed for awhile due to a crash; Route 103 in Chester was also closed for a time due to a snow-related crash, and Route 11 in Londonderry was reduced to one lane, also due to a crash. 

Shelburne Road near the on ramp to Interstate 189 was closed due to a crash around noon, too, so that must have been a real mess. 

All the traffic cams I've seen in Vermont over the past hour show snow covered roads. In other words, be careful out there folks. 

As of 12:30 p.m., it was snowing at a pretty good clip statewide. So far, as of noon, most places had maybe two to three inches of snow. It seems like there was a zone of heavier snow near and north of the Worcester range in north central Vermont. 

Total accumulation is still forecast to be the same as forecast this morning. Although far northwest Vermont might get a bit more than originally forecast. For instance, older forecasts had St. Albans receiving three inches, but now that's been bumped up to four inches. 

The snow will continue coming down at a good pace well into the afternoon.  The snow will start to diminish after 3 p.m. in far northwest Vermont.  That snow shut down will steadily move southeastward across Vermont in the very late afternoon and evening. 

It'll finally conk out in far southeast Vermont before midnight. 

Flurries might linger, but once the steady snow shuts down where you live, you'll hardly get any additional accumulation. You can start shoveling at that point. 

Even after the snow ends, it will take time to clean up the roads, so be careful driving back home tonight. In the Champlain Valley, where snow will be tapering off as darkness falls, I don't anticipate any kind of traffic nightmare like we had during that big snow on November 10. But, expect delays and be patient. 

Since it will still be snowing in southern and eastern Vermont late this afternoon and evening, roads remain lousy down there   

Monday Evening Storm Update: Pretty Vermont Snowstorm Tomorrow, But Road Will Make People Grumble

Updated snow forecast for tomorrow, from the National
Weather Service office in South Burlington 
Predicted totals are up a little bit in eastern
Vermont, about the same west. 

 I noticed high, thin clouds creeping in late this afternoon here in St. Albans, the first harbinger of our expected New England snowstorm. 

As expected, we have some change and upgrades to the watches that were up earlier. 

This fast-moving storm is covering a lot of real estate. Winter weather advisories with this thing extend from Kansas and Arkansas all the way to Maine. 

The winter storm warnings, for the heaviest snow as of these evening run through the Catskills and Capitol District of New York, on through central New England.

In general, predicted snow amounts are similar to what we had this morning, with predictions ticking up from this morning east of the Green Mountains from Brattleboro all the way up to the Northeast Kingdom. 

There's still time for the storm's projected path to shift, so by tomorrow morning, there might be some further changes in the forecast. You know the drill. 

VERMONT'S WINTER STORM WARNING

For us here in Vermont, the upgrade to winter storm warning covers pretty much the same ground the earlier winter storm watch occupied

That warning goes through the southern four counties of Vermont, Orange County, and the hilly and mountainous terrain in Addison County east of Route 7. The warning, in effect from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 a.m. Wednesday, calls for 5 to 9 inches of snow.

In their forecast discussion this afternoon, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said there could easily be pockets of 10 inches or a little more snow in mostly far southern and eastern Vermont, maybe as far north as Orange County. 

That's barely with the winter storm warning criteria. But remember, this storm is rocketing through, so the snow will mostly come down in a big thump lasting just during the day, with a peak probably mid-morning to mid afternoon.

Snow could come down at a rate of an inch per hour in southern and central Vermont, which is hard for the snow plows to keep up with. If you have unnecessary travel plans in southern Vermont tomorrow, just postpone until Wednesday. It'll be easier. 

On the bright side, this will be a pretty snowstorm, The snow's consistency will be somewhat on the fluffy side - not exactly feathers, but definitely not wet cement, either. There won't be a lot of wind, either, so the snow will pile up nicely on branches and such. 

Great for the Christmas spirit if you're into that, or if you're looking for a photo opportunity to include on Christmas cards and gifts. 

FURTHER NORTH

A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont north of the winter storm warning, except Franklin and Grand Isle counties where the snow will be even lighter.

In the areas under the advisory, it looks like three to seven inches of new snow is in the cards. Up in Franklin and Grand Isle counties, expect maybe just two to four inches, and maybe even a notch below that in the extreme northwest up by Alburgh. 

TIMING

As mentioned this morning, it looks like the snow will start just in time for the evening commute. The start of this will be a little unusual. There might be flurries before dawn, but statewide, this will begin around 7 a.m. give or take. 

And instead of the snow creeping south to north like it usually does under this type of storm, it'll start snowing within the same hour or two window statewide. 

If you can get to your office or school before 7 a.m. that would be helpful. Or, if you can work remotely, even better. 

Even though the snow and its timing has already been blasted all over the media, people on the roads will be "surprised" by the suddenly poor visibility and slick roads on the highways. 

For the love of God, take it easy on the road. Your mistake can cause problems for hundreds of people, maybe thousands. That's because you wreck on, say Interstate 89 and traffic backs up for miles as a result. 

All those people are late for work, maybe in trouble with their bosses. They miss doctor and dentist appointments, even things like critical cancer treatments. Everybody has to just sit there, wasting gas, because of you and your wreck. 

The speed demons who cause these kinds of situations surely don't care about anyone else, so I doubt I'm getting through to them.  But I'm mentioning it because I do believe there's such a thing as karma. 

The snow, as mentioned, should continue all day. It'll start to taper off in the late afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast across the state. The roads won't be in great shape on the way home, either, so keep that in mind. 

We're still looking at a sharp cold front with possible snow squalls Thursday, followed by Arctic air Thursday night and Friday. I'll have more details in subsequent posts. 

I'll update this tomorrow morning, of course! Enjoy the snow! 

New England/Vermont Drought Holds Firm, Only Slight Improvement After Last Week's Rains

Only slight improvement shown in this week's
 Drought Monitor for Vermont. The 
Green Mountains went from extreme 
drought down to a slightly less dire
severe drought. Everything else
in Vermont was unchanged from
last week's report. 

 The closely watched weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out on scheduled this morning, and it shows only modest improvement here in Vermont, despite some decent rains last week. 

It demonstrates how hard it is to emerge from a drought. It was a flash drought, one that developed over just a few weeks. Unfortunately, once you're in a drought, it's hard to get out of it. 

The area of Vermont under extreme drought diminished a little since last week. The area of extreme drought was removed from the Green Mountain range  Extreme drought continues in western Addison County and east of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4. 

This makes sense, since last week's storm dumped its heaviest rain along the spine of the Green Mountains. 

About 47 percent of Vermont was in extreme drought this week, compared to 59 percent last week. So, not much improvement. 

Areas that were in severe drought in Vermont are unchanged from last week. Far northwestern Vermont, a small corner of southwest Vermont and a thin sliver along the Massachusetts border were in less intense moderate drought, exactly the same as last week.

In the rest of New England and Northeast, areas of extreme drought diminished a little in New Hampshire and some of the mountains of western Maine. However, drought intensified in southern and eastern Maine. 

Drought conditions in New York were basically  unchanged, improving a little near Lake Erie but worsening a bit in some of the central parts of the state. 

It's raining again in the Northeast, so maybe there will be another slight improvement next week. 

VERMONT RAIN  OUTLOOK

A little more drought relief coming today through
early Saturday with 0.5 to a little over an inch of
rain in the forecast for Vermont. 

We are going to get a decent rainfall in Vermont today through early Saturday, though in some parts of the state, predicted rainfall amounts are cut back a little. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will go to the west and east of Vermont. Parts of central and northwest New York, and eastern New England should get 1.5 inches of rain or a little more than that by Saturday morning. 

Vermont should do OK, with maybe a half inch in low elevations of southwest Vermont, about three quarters of an inch across the southeast, central and northern parts of the state. 

Northwest Vermont, often the winner lately with rainstorms, will probably do it again, with an expected rainfall of a little over an inch by Saturday. 

Here are the picky details of the forecast: 

he initial burst of rain this morning is moving directly north over New York. It's having a tough time moving east into Vermont.

It will gradually get wetter, west to east across the Green Mountain State today. The rain might kind of sputter out for a time late this afternoon and early evening. But then a good wave of steady rain should come in tonight.

For much of the state, it will be kind of a stormy night.  On top of the rain, a stiff east wind will blow across much of the area. That will be especially true along the western slopes of the Green Mountain, where winds could gust to 45 mph or so.

A few favored spots along the western slopes could maybe gust to 55 mph, but that won't be widespread. If the rain is on the heavy side, the wind will be a little lighter. Periods when the rain is much lighter along the western slopes might bring some stronger gusts. 

Not a horrific storm, but tonight's weather will show that we're now into the season where we can get those blustery late autumn storms 

The rain should continue into Friday, but it will turn showery by afternoon. The rain will mostly end in southeast Vermont. 

Friday will be another blustery day, especially in the afternoon, with the wind coming from the northwest instead of the east.  The rain might stop completely for awhile Friday morning as a tongue of dry air tries to  come in. But showers will fill back in, especially north and along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

For trick or treaters, this Halloween will be a polar opposite of last year. Halloween, 2024 brought record-shattering high temperatures, and those ghosts and monsters and goblins on the streets basically enjoyed a typical summer evening. 

Not this year. A gusty northwest wind will add to the chill amid temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at best Friday evening. The showers will be relatively light, but persistent, especially central and north. 

As the night goes on, snow that will have started at the summits Friday afternoon will go downhill in elevation, reaching as low as 1,500 feet by Saturday morning. There could be light accumulations above 2,000 feet, and maybe several inches at the summits.

Saturday will be a blustery, cold, cloudy November day, which is a hallmark of the month. There could be some valley light rain showers and mountain snow showers, but amounts will be light. 

Sunday will be calmer.

As we look ahead in hopes of more drought relief, I don't see much. It looks like the pattern heading into mid-November will feature frequent chances of light rain or mountain snow. I don't see any signs of more drenching super-soakers for now. 

 

Another Dent In The Drought? Vermont/New England Looks Forward To New Storm

A beautiful, crisp late autumn day yesterday in St 
Albans, Vermont. The blue skies did not necessarily
mean a return to extended dry weather. Another
soggy storm appears to be on the way, 

Us Vermonters enjoyed a beautiful late autumn day Tuesday. Bright sunshine, crisp air, deep blue skies. And in the warmer valleys, lingering gorgeous fall color. 

We had a lot of bright, sunny days over the past few months, which is the problem.  That's how we got into the deep drought the region has endured this autumn. So as wonderful as Tuesday's weather was, is this the start of a new drug trend?  

The great news is no, it's not.

We have another rather sunny, dry day today. But we have another storm coming, and it looks like another sopping wet one. 

So after today, we're in for another extended period of unpleasant weather. Who knew we'd actually look forward to crummy conditions outside?

THE DETAILS

A pretty deep storm is gathering itself over the southeastern U.S. today. It'll move northward today and tonight, ending up somewhere in or near New York State tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, a new storm will get going near the New England coast Thursday night in tandem with the New York storm tomorrow.

This whole mess will be pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. It looks like it might even tap into Hurricane Melissa for a bit of an added boost of wetness.  (I'm doing a separate post this morning on that horrible hurricane). 

If the forecast is accurate, Vermont, along with most of the rest of New England, is in for more than an inch of rain with this one. 

Initial forecasts bring more than an inch of badly
needed rain to Vermont Thursday through early
Saturday. Rain is needed to put another dent 
into our deep drought. 

As you can see in the map I've put in this post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks all of Vermont should get an inch or more of rain by early Saturday morning. 

There will be adjustments either up or down on this forecast before the storm arrives, but you get the idea. 

This will be the second soggy storm within 10 days, and we've had other bursts of lighter rain in between. I really think this will diminish the drought somewhat. 

It'll take months of above normal precipitation to fully erase the drought. But for now, we seem to be on the right path. 

The rain should start to arrive Thursday afternoon.  It'll be steadiest and heaviest Thursday night and early Friday. After that, it will turn more showery.  Much of Vermont will be raw and blustery and kind of wet Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

Precipitation the will be lighter, with the most in northern Vermont, especially the mountains. Valleys, especially in southeastern parts of the state, will have dry periods later Friday and Saturday.  

Like every storm, this one has its quirks and complications. Well also being dealing with gusty winds in some areas, and snow in others. Yeah, it's that time of year. 

WIND

The winds won't exactly be really destructive. This won't be any stretch of the imagination be New England's version of Hurricane Melissa.

But as the storm approaches Thursday, the strongest winds winds will hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts to 40 mph in those areas. 

Then, the new storm that will have formed along the New England coast will really crank itself up as it departs toward the Canadian Maritimes. That means gusty northwest winds for everybody around here Friday night and Saturday. 

SNOW

Now that we're about to get into November, almost every storm will bring more snow than the last. Our mountain summits were graced with a bit of white last week. This storm will bring even more snow. And at lower elevations than the last one, 

The Green Mountain summits should start snowing by early Saturday, and they could a few inches by Sunday. Just to whet skier and snowboarder appetites, I guess.

By Sunday morning, some snow flakes could get as low as 1,200 feet in elevation, says the National Weather Service. So places where people actually live in Vermont will see a little snow, even if it doesn't accumulate.

Saturday will be the rawest, coldest, ugliest day we've had yet. It'll be mainly cloudy, with those gusty winds and temperatures falling through the 40s. Light showers will probably linger, especially north and mountains. And of course those showers will be in the form of snow in the mountains. 

That will be a good slap of reality as we open the month of November, won't it?  

MORE RAIN?

Things should quiet down by Sunday, with seasonable early November weather and no precipitation to speak of, aside from some mountain snow flurries.

Something else looks like it would come through about Tuesday, but it won't be nearly as wet as what the storm at the end of this week. 

The computer models disagree on what will happen early next week. It could be just a cold front with light showers, or a full fledged storm with moderate rain.  

The overall weather pattern does look like an improvement over August, September and early October, though. We've lost those big, dry high pressure systems that would stall over us for days or even weeks at a time.

The new weather pattern doesn't really favor lots of super soaker storms, so don't count on any lingering drought to disappear. But at least some precipitation is likely once every two to four days heading into the middle of November, so we might not backslide into worsening drought again, which would be nice. 

 

 

New U.S. Drought Monitor Report Shows No Real Improvement In Vermont/New England.

This weeks's U.S. Drought Monitor shows little 
improvement over last week, despite some
rain. Red area is extreme drought, orange
is severe, lighter orange is moderate drought. 

 The latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, out this morning, shows no improvement in our deep Vermont drought conditions, despite some decent rainfall last week. 

About two thirds of the Green Mountain State is in extreme drought, about the same level has the week before. 

Droughts are categorized in rank of increasing severity as moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional. 

By the time you get up to extreme drought, you see crop losses, struggling dairy farms, extremely low water in rivers and steams and exceptionally busy well drillers and bulk water haulers. All of that is definitely happening in Vermont.  

All but tiny slivers in the rest of Vermont is in extreme drought. Only minuscule areas in extreme southern Vermont, northern Grand Isle County and a small section of southwest Rutland County are in moderate drought. 

The section of Rutland County that's now in moderate instead of severe drought is the only slight improvement over last week I could find. The area of extreme drought in Rutland County also shrank a little.

That improvement was offset by extreme drought spreading more into eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties and western Lamoille County. 

These are all fussy little changes. Essentially, things are unchanged for the report that came out a week ago. 

In the rest of the Northeast, heavy rains improved things somewhat in southern New England, but drought worsened in eastern Maine and New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

OUTLOOK

This was a flash drought in Vermont, one that develops within weeks instead of months that regular droughts do. However, you almost never see a flash end to a drought. 

Even if we get a lot of soaking rains, and big blitzes of winter snows, I don't think the drought will disappear anytime soon. I'm betting it could easily last into the spring. It might improve over the coming months if we get a lot of precipitation, but it will be a long slog. 

Plus, there's no promise of much soaking rains. We do have several chances of rain over the next week or two, but I'm unimpressed by the amount of precipitation we'll get from these weather systems. 

In the short term, today is a high risk fire day in the Green Mountain State. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates today's wildfire risk as very high, except for the southern Green Mountains, where the risk is "merely" high, with no adjectives. 

True, we had a little rain earlier this week, but not much. It was enough to briefly wet down fallen leaves and dead grasses and weeds, but not enough to soak the fallen branches and trees, and underground roots in our forests. 

The wind has dried out the leaves and weeds. Winds are forecast to gust to 30 mph or more for the rest of today. That means any fires that start will spread fast.

The breezes will be lighter tomorrow and Saturday, so the risk of rapidly spreading fires will be lower. But new fires could easily start, as it will be quite dry those days. 

Rain is still in the forecast Sunday night and Monday, but we don't  yet know how much we'll get. Unlike the few rain storms we've had this fall, mainly cloudy, somewhat damp and showery weather could continue into the middle of next week, which would be great.   

We seem to be switching out of a weather pattern in which big, dry high pressure systems stalled over us and kept rainmakers away. But the new weather pattern looks only somewhat wetter, with relatively weak, fast moving little storms throwing some shots of generally light rain at us. 

The worsening trend in the drought might slow or even stop in the coming weeks, but unless we see some pleasant surprises, don't count on a lot of improvement anytime soon.