Sort Of A Stormy Easter Morning In Vermont, Gets Better Later

I know it's disappointing to wake up on Easter Morning to find it rather stormy out - rainy enough to soak and ruin your Easter bonnet and windy enough to blow it away. 

The first part of April is never pretty, and that was the 
case this Easter morning in St. Albans, Vermont. After
an expected throwback to winter, the progress of spring
will accelerate later next week 

But who the hell wears an Easter bonnet anymore? The Easter egg hunts might have to be postponed a bit, too, which might be a bummer.

But since this is all about ME!!!!!!, I personally like waking up on raw and wet Sunday morning in a cozy house. I can hear the wind blown rain clattering faintly on the metal roof, and the dull roar of winds still blowing through leafless trees, the gray skies, all starting the day quietly, contemplatory. 

We did - as expected - end up getting winds just as strong as the gusts we had Friday morning, but they came in the hours just after midnight, when we were less likely to notice them. The wind advisory that was in effect was justified.

Winds at the sandbar on Route 2 in Milton got to 59 mph. Jay saw gusts to 53 mph; Morrisville, 51 mph and Panton, 49 mph. There were plenty of gusts statewide in the 30s and 40s mph. Not enough to cause widespread problems but enough to rattle the shutters. 

Early this morning, roughly 2,800 homes and businesses had no power, mostly in the northern Green Mountains. 

REST OF TODAY/TOMORROW

The rain that moved in before dawn is now tending to suppress the wind somewhat. That rain should mostly move out by shortly after noon.  We'll end up with a third of an inch of new rain, give or take, so we're safe from any flooding. This afternoon will actually be OK, with temperatures hovering near 50, with breaks of sun and southwest breezes.

At least as measured in Burlington, there have only been two Aprils without so much as a snow flurry in Burlington (1941 and 2005).  This year won't join those two illustrious Aprils.

First of all, there's already been a snow flurry on April 1.  And more are probably on the way.  Progressively colder and colder air will start coming in this afternoon and night, setting the stage for some spring snow showers. 

Tomorrow will be chilly, but it won't be the worst of it. High should make it to the upper 30s northern highlands to upper 40s warmest southern valley floors.  There could be a few snow flurries in the mountains. 

THE COLD PEAKS

As the cold air continue to pour in Monday night and early Tuesday, more snow showers should blossom. For now, anyway, forecasts have measurable snow statewide by the end of the day Tuesday, though I have my doubts about this for warmer southern valleys. 

Tuesday will be a throwback to winter, with many of us receiving a dusting to an  inch of snow. Some  northern towns will probably never get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will get into the teens to low 20s. Spring will be on temporary hold.  Don't worry, happens every year. 

SPRING RETURNS

Strong high pressure, which initially will contribute to our nippy April weather, will warm us up as it passes nearly overhead and then off the east coast Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon, it'll get well into the 40s, which is still a little cooler than normal. But the strong April sun will make it feel much better.

After that, we get a huge break. April can be notoriously tempestuous, but the second half of next week and next weekend look anything but. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will get spring flowers and plants and tree buds going, and no notable storms are on the way. 

Sure, this Easter morning is gray and brown and muddy and ugly, as early April is in Vermont. But that promise of spring keeps getting more and  more real. 

Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Blizzard Of '26 And Blizzard Of '78 : Teasing Out Which Was Worse and Which Was Snowier

A parking lot in Fall River, Massachusetts
last evening. Photo by Abby Camacho

 For nearly a half century now, New Englanders have been regaling their offspring with tales of the epic Blizzard of 1978.

Now, young victims of hearing those 1978 stories over and over again will now probably spend the next half century torturing the next generation or two with stories of the epic Blizzard of 2026. 

By most measures, the Blizzard of 1978 was a worse storm than the Blizzard of 2026.

DAMAGE/DEATHS/WIND COMPARED

In 1978, 100 people died in the storm and 4,500 were injured. Of course, we don't have a final toll from yesterday's storm, but it won't get that high. 

So far, two deaths have been reported with this storm. There will be more, because I expect heart attacks from snow shoveling, carbon monoxide poisoning because of vents buried in snow, falls from people clearing roofs and other accidents. 

Both the 1978 and 2026 storms were destructive, but 1978 was clearly worse. It caused $520 million in damage, using 1978 dollars. Correcting for inflation, the toll from that storm would har been about $2.7 billion in 2026 dollars. 

The 1978 damage included destruction from storm surges that destroyed coastal homes in New England. From Maine to Virginia, there was damage from storm surges in this week's storm, but it clearly was not nearly as severe as 1978.  

The 1978 storm caused coastal destruction through four high tide cycles. Yesterday's storm stirred up trouble only during one high tide.

The 2026 storm was destructive in other ways, judging from the hundreds of thousands of power outages, countless fallen trees and some structural damage. New York City is now littered with dozens of fallen trees, some of which crushed cars and awnings. 

As of this morning, 362,800 homes and businesses were still without power in the Northeast. That includes 253,000 or so Massachusetts outages. 

A house in Halifax, Massachusetts just before the
Blizzard of '26.........

We don't yet have an estimate of damage from this storm, but I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches $1 billion or more. 

The top wind gust recorded during the Blizzard of 1978 was 111 mph in Scituate, Massachusetts. 

The Blizzard of 2026 didn't quite reach those levels. But Newport, Rhode Island gusted to 89 mph; Montauk, Long Island had a gust to 84 mph. 

Other strong gusts include 83 mph in Nantucket and 82 in Dennis, Massachusetts. We saw many reports of gusts exceeding 70 mph on Monday. 

SNOWFALL.

Snow was really where the Blizzard of 2026 shined. 

The biggest snow total from the Blizzard of 1978 was 40 inches in Plymouth County, Massachusetts. So far, I haven't seen a total that high from yesterday, but deep snow was clearly more widespread in 2026 than in 1978

.....and the same house after the Blizzard of '26. Photos by
Erika Rossini. 

Final snow totals aren't in yet but the information tells us that people are buried. Five states - Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey and New York - had reports of more than 30 inches of snow. 

The big snow winner was Rhode Island. Namely Providence. The final snow total there was 37.9 shattering the city's record snowstorm of 28.6 inches set in, yes, 1978.

The Rhode Island statewide record for biggest snowstorm was 38 inches in Woonsocket in 1978.  So Providence just missed that. It's possible that we might see a late breaking total in Rhode of more than 38 inches, but we haven't seen that yet.  

The most snow I've seen in Massachusetts so far is 37 inches in Bliss Corner, which is is Bristol County. 

In New York City, the final storm total in Central Park stuck at 19.7 inches, their ninth biggest snowstorm on record. Other sections of New York City had much more. The most snow reported in the Big Apple was 29 inches in Grasmere and 27.8 inches at Todt Hill. Both locations are on Staten Island. 

Newark, New Jersey has 27.2 inches of snow, just 0.6 inches short of their biggest snowstorm in January, 1996.

WHAT'S NEXT

People in the blizzard zone can probably be forgiven if they want all that snow to melt. It was a late season storm, which makes thaws more likely than a January storm would have. 

Indeed, after some subfreezing temperatures today, readings on Wednesday through Sunday will be a little above freezing, which will help to settle the snow. 

However, a one to three inches of snow is possible tonight and tomorrow. And a cold wave will likely hold temperatures below freezing next Monday

VERMONT EFFECTS

As mentioned yesterday, the Green Mountain State sat out this blizzard.  Up to five inches of snow fell near the Massachusetts border, and light snow extended up into Rutland and Windsor counties, with little accumulation. Flurries fell elsewhere in Vermont.

In the Blizzard of 1978, up to two feet of snow fell in Rutland and a few other southern Vermont locations. The 1978 storm was lighter up north, with only four inches in Burlington.  

It looks like we in Vermont might have a little issue with snow tomorrow. Most of the trouble, once again, will be with the timing of the snow rather than the amounts.

A short burst of steady snow is likely for tomorrow morning's commute, especially in central and southern Vermont. We'd only get an inch or two of snow, but drive time could get dicey.

Then, in the afternoon, it might get a little above freezing in the valleys for a time, but snow showers and maybe snow squalls could enter the picture toward later afternoon and evening. Once again, we have lousy timing. 

The snow showers and squalls might abruptly make the roads icy. That's especially true because they'll quickly drop temperatures below freezing, so water on the roads would freeze along with the fresh bit of snow from the squalls. 

We won't actually get much snow out of this. Projected accumulations tomorrow are about a half inch to two inches, with maybe a tad more in the mountains. 

Our never ending winter does not show many signs of ending just yet.

Saturday Morning Vermont Update: Pretty Much Anything Might Fall From The Sky Tonight

National Weather Service map of expected snow totals.
This includes tonight snow, and lingering snow
Sunday through Monday. Click on the map to
make it bigger and easier to see. Also, 
it's a difficult forecast so don't be 
surprised if it turns out to be a little off. 

Our messy storm is on our doorstep, due tonight in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

And we still don't have a great idea of what will fall from the sky and any particular time during the storm. . But the experts are trying their best to tell you who gets snow, who gets ice, who gets rain.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. 

Pretty much the entire state of Vermont, and surrounding states, and southern Quebec will get a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.  The question who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain? 

I'll have some sadly vague answers in a bit.

First of all, how about that wind yesterday? The Champlain Valley and northern New York really got blasted, especially in the afternoon and evening. Power outages in Vermont peaked at around 2,800 homes and businesses last night. 

In northwestern New York, winds gusted to as high as 65 mph in Malone. Here in Vermont, peak gusts included  60 mph in Jay. 57 mph in Alburgh, 53 mph on Route 2 at the Sandbar in Milton and 51 mph in Burlington. 

In contrast, it's almost a dead calm out there this morning in anticipation of our storm.

THE STORM.

Meteorologists like to look at the thermal profile of the atmosphere in this type of weather situation. That means they look at what they think the temperature will be in every layer of the atmosphere. 

In this case, I would understand if those meteorologists just threw up their hands and said, "I dunno!"

But they're professionals, so they're giving it a shot. 

National Weather Service forecast of expected ice
accumulation from tonight's storm. Most of the freezing
rain will be in the mountains central and south.

A high pressure system that will be off to our north and east will try to feed cold air into northern New England as the double-barreled storm comes at us from the southwest.  We're also looking at that new storm developing along the New England coast. How fast and strongly develops will also help determine whether the cold air wins out, or the warm air takes over. 

The dense, cooler air trying to come in from the northeast will tend to hug the ground. Warm air will glide up over that chilly air.  

Where the cold air is the atmosphere and how thick layers of warm air will be overhead will determine which kind of stuff falls from the sky. That's our thermal profile. 

The bottom line is different types of schmutz will fall from the sky at different times. All we can do is try to predict what the predominate precipitation type will be.

Early guesses are this will be mostly snow toward northeastern Vermont. You'll see more sleet as you head south and east across the state. 

Here's another complication. As falling snow enters the warm layer in the atmosphere, it melts into raindrops. If the cold layer is thin, that rain stays unfrozen until it hits the ground, and turns to ice. That's freezing rain. 

If the cold layer near the ground is thicker, the raindrops freeze on the way down. They become little ice balls - sleet. 

As the National Weather Service describes it, some higher elevations might see some freezing rain, as the rain won't have time to turn to ice on the way down. The best chance of freezing rain with this storm looks like it'll be in the southern Green Mountains of Vermont and southern Adirondacks of New York. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect in those two areas because of that freeing rain risk.  I don't think the freezing rain will be enough to bring down much in the way of trees and power lines. It will be mostly a dangerous road type of situation. 

This mess should start around 6 to 8 p.m. this evening in southern Vermont and 8 to 10 p.m. central and north.  At least it's hitting at night on a weekend, so the effects on travel aren't so bad. 

The best guess on snow amounts by tomorrow are two to five inches of snow in the Northeast Kingdom, one to three inches central Vermont and the Champlain Valley and less than an inch south. This will be a heavy, wet snow, especially since many areas will have some sleet, freezing rain and rain mixed in with it. 

Expect surprises, with some areas getting more or less snow or ice than predicted. This is an easy forecast to screw up.

During the day on Sunday, more snow showers will continue, mostly north and northeast. For awhile Sunday, some of the valleys could see raindrops mixed in as cooler air will take its time coming in. 

Another one to four inches of snow looks like it fall Sunday and Sunday night in most of the north. They would be somewhat more than that in the northern Green Mountains. And there would probably be a little less than that in southern Vermont and in the central and southern Champlain Valley. 

The Adirondacks in New York and the White Mountains in New Hampshire looks like they will get some additional snow Sunday night as well. 

The forecast for the upcoming week is starting to look more complicated than earlier thought, too. But I'll get into that in a later post.   

Weekend Vermont Storm Looking Even Colder, Snow Chances Increase

Slate colored clouds looking west from St. Albans, Vermont 
this morning portended some rain showers moving in
by this afternoon. 

 The weather forecast for Vermont today looks pretty easy to figure out. For later in the weekend, not so much. 

The trends for the Saturday night and Sunday storm are continuing to look colder. It's now looking like at least northern parts of the state might get more snow than rain out of it. 

More on that in a minute. First we have to get through today. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Roads across Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley were slick in many areas. Moist air and some of the remnants of melting snow froze overnight, leaving black ice on the roadways. That problem will ease later this morning as temperatures rise above freezing.

The first of two storms we're dealing with will go by to our west today. That ensures everybody in Vermont will see rain. Not much, though. Rainfall this afternoon and evening should amount to 0.1 to 0.2 inches for most of us. 

Winds will be gusty in places today, especially in the Champlain Valley and across the pond in northern New York.

Snow lovers have one bit of good news today. Record warmth is embracing the southeastern United States today, but it will only be sort of warm here. True, daytime highs in the 40s today will melt some of the snow. Or all of it in places where the snow cover is quite thin in southern Vermont valleys. 

However, the very warmest air won't be able to make it this far north before it gets cut off at the pass by a cold front this evening. The cold front is no powerhouse. By morning, temperatures will be close to 30 degrees, which is a mild morning by January standards

Saturday will be the stereotypical calm before the storm. Some sun might break out in the morning for a bit, but it will cloud over in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s.

THE STORM

First of all, some background. It's a pretty dynamic system. For evidence, I present you with the four reported out of season tornadoes that touched down in Oklahoma yesterday. They weren't huge, but still.

Today. more severe storms and maybe some tornadoes, are in the forecast for the Deep South.  Meteorologist are also expecting some heavy rain and flooding in the Gulf Coast states. 

The good news for us in Vermont is the deepest moisture, the most chaotic part of the atmosphere  and the heaviest precipitation will zoom up from the South, through the Mid-Atlantic States and then offshore via the southern New England coast. Meaning, the torrential stuff will miss us. 

Still, though, we will get our share of precipitation, even if it's not torrential. We're still expecting a double-barrel storm. Once center will go up through the Great Lakes, the other will take shape near southern New England. 

The southern New England one keeps looking a little stronger with each run of the computer models, so that would tend to keep the cold air locked in better. 

Of course, temperatures throughout most of the atmosphere during this event will be touch and go between snow and a mix. So don't take the following prediction as gospel quite yet.

But as it stands now, it looks like places north of Route 2 in Vermont might see mostly snow, with just a little mix of ice or rain in there. Total snow accumulation through Sunday morning up there would be in the two to four inch range. 

Between Route 2 and 4, there would be more of a mix, so total snow accumulation might be in the one or two inch range, with maybe a slight glaze of ice.

South of Route 4, it will be mostly rain with maybe some ice and a few snowflakes. 

Again, the forecasts are still in flux, so expect some changes. 

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND

The remnants of the part of the storm that ended up in the Great Lakes is forecast to come through Sunday night. That would spread another two or three inches of snow across northern Vermont, with maybe a little more in the mountains. That Sunday night burst of snow could leave one to three inches of snow in central Vermont, with less than that across the south. 

The first half of the upcoming week still looks like it will be on the mild side, with daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday probably getting a little above freezing.

But, a long spell of cold to bitter cold weather looks like it will start during the second half of next week. Chances are rising that the Arctic air could last through the end of January.    

A Brief New Year's Eve Early Eveing Vermont Forecast

Updated National Weather Service snow accumulation
map for tonight and early tomorrow. Most of us get
two or three windblown inches. More than that in
the mountains, a little less in the immediate
Champlain Valley. Roads iffy most of overnight. 

Darkness has fallen as of 5 p.m. as we ride out the last few hours of 2025. 

There's been minor updates to the weather forecast for our celebrations, but the overall prediction remains the same as I outlined this morning. 

As we go through the evening, there will be a rising chance of light snow as what is now a small storm develops over western New York and then drifts over northern Vermont overnight and into the wee hours of tomorrow. 

Southern Vermont, especially Bennington County, is in a position in relation to the storm to have better moisture and dynamics in the atmosphere than other sections of Vermont. 

So in the southwest corner of the state, we've got a winter weather advisory overnight for three to six inches of snow. The higher amounts will fall in the southern Green Mountains. 

Winds will pick up overnight and into the morning. That sets the stage for blowing snow. It'll be a light and fluffy snow, which blows around easily. It'll also be falling on a hard crust of snow, thanks to the freezing rain we had the other day. 

That solid crust means there won't be much friction to keep the new snow in place when the wind blows. We'll end up with more visibility problems and snow drifts than usual from a snowfall this size.

On the roads, it won't be the end of the world as far as their conditions. But it's cold enough so the snow will stick, and conditions will get slick pretty much statewide. Add in the risk of the occasional New Year's Eve drunk driver and it gets a little more dangerous. If you're out partying tonight, drive defensively, slowly and sober tonight, folks!

Aside from the Green Mountain mountain chain and parts of southern Vermont, most of us should still expect two or three inches of snow by the time it mostly stops by the time you're having your Bloody Marys late in the morning tomorrow.  There might only be one to two inches in the immediate Champlain Valley and parts of the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The ski areas should get a decent four to six inches of new snow, with locally higher amounts. Good luck measuring the damn snow, since it will be blowing around so much. 

Which leads us to the other problem. The cold. High temperatures New Year's Day will hit just after midnight tonight, when you're all out there screaming in the New Year. Those temperatures will be in the 20s at midnight, then fall through the teens into the single numbers by tomorrow evening. 

Winds gusting in the 25 to 35 mph range will keep wind chills below zero all day.  It'll stay cold until our next desperate chance of warmup of sort by around next Tuesday. 

Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Everything To Freeze Up As Arctic Winds Arrive

Route 5 near Hartland today. Photo by
Isabella Belisle, via Facebook.

The freezing rain part of our storm is just about over, but we now get to look forward to all the remaining slush and water turning to hard, slippery ice again. We will also get to not-so-joyfully experience crashing temperatures, gusty winds and sharp, almost painful wind chills. 

Most places got between 0.15 to 0.25 inches of ice that coated everything outdoors. Many of us in the Champlain Valley never saw it because it changed to plain rain a little ahead of sunrise, before most of us got up. In other places, it kept going. 

The highest ice accumulation I saw was 0.5 inches in Warren, 0.4 inches in Chittenden and 0.38 inches in Cabot and Chelsea.

Vermont State Police said that from Sunday evening to 11 a.m. Monday they responded to 92 weather-related crashes across the state, three of which resulted in injuries. Of those crashes 29 of them happened on Interstate highways and the rest were on secondary roads. 

Power outages across Vermont continued to rise through the morning peaking at around 10:45 a.m today. As of 4:15 p.m or so, outages were down to only about 700, mostly in east-central Vermont.  

Overall precipitation amounts were healthy, too. Most of central and northern Vermont received between 0.75 and one inch of rain and melted ice. Far southern parts of the state saw a little over an inch. 

Since not that much snow cover melted, the water content of it really increased. It's going to be that crunchy gross stuff if you walk through it tomorrow. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Traffic cam grab showed ice still on the trees along
Interstate 89 in Brookfield. As winds increase tonight,
some of the weighted down branches might break,
spawning new power outages. 

At 3 p.m, shortly before the cold front began to press into Vermont,   it had gotten above freezing almost everywhere in Vermont, according to reports. 

There were almost definitely cold hollows east of the Green Mountains that were still below freezing. 

It was 32 degrees in Eden. Other places, like Springfield and Lyndonville, were still at 33 degrees. Most of the rest of the state was only in the mid-30s.    

Traffic camera images in a few spots showed ice still weighing down the trees. I notices it when I did spot checks on Route 302 in Topsham, Interstate 89 in Brookfield and Route 11 in Winhall.

I'm sure ice is still on trees in a lot of other places. I bring this up because the wind will get pretty noticeable as we go through the evening. By later tonight and tomorrow, a lot of us will experience gusts over 30 mph. Maybe 40 mph in a few spots. 

Those winds could knock down a few more ice-laden branches, which would trigger a few more power outages. I don't expect anything too widespread, but keep your devices charged anyway, especially if the tree are all icy outside. 

If you still have ice encasing your car, try to get out there right away and scrape it off before it gets below freezing. Waiting until it gets really cold will make the job really hard. Remember to get the ice of all of your vehicle. If not, you'll be liable for damages if a slab of ice flies off your car or  truck and hits the person in back of you on the highway. 

If you're looking for replacement snow, especially powder after this icy episode, you're pretty much out of luck. Most places will see an inch per less of snow tonight and tomorrow. For the most part, it will be just nuisance snow showers for the rest of the week. The mountains might pick ups few inches, but that's about it. 

It'll get down to 10 degrees, give or take by tomorrow morning and stay in the teens all day. 

Obviously, as noted,  any standing water or slush on your driveway, the roads, and sidewalks will harden into ice tonight and make things treacherous in spots for the foreseeable future. 

Here's why: It's going to stay cold through the upcoming weekend and probably beyond.  I'll get into how cold the week will be and why this is happening in tomorrow morning's post.  

 

Christmas Eve Vermont Weather Update: Snowstorm Mostly Over, But Busy Weather Regime Continues

It's a winter wonderland out there in St. Albans,
Vermont this morning. Same for the rest of the 
state as yesterday and last night's storm ensures
a white Christmas. Weather conditions going
past Christmas will be kind of harsh. 

 Our small snowstorm behaved about as forecast, as the few initial reports that have come in so far indicated a lot of people got four or five inches of new snow. 

We have our White Christmas, 2025 in the bag.

The most new snow I've seen so far is eight inches in Woodbury and  6.5 inches, in Moscow, which is right near Stowe. Where I'm at in St. Albans, we collected 4.7 inches of new snow.

Burlington had five inches of snow on the ground this morning. White Christmases had been declining in the Queen City, but with this storm, four of the past five Christmases had snow on the ground.

If there's still five inches on the ground tomorrow, that will be the deepest Christmas snow since 2017.

DEPARTING STORM

The storm is consolidating now along off the Maine Coast. The southwestern part of that state is getting a good dump of snow, with a total of 6 to as much as 14 inches expected in that part of Maine by the time it ends later today.

Back here in Vermont, some of the storm's upper level support was still over us so area of light snow were continuing even after dawn broke. Traffic cameras show most main roads aren't perfect, but pretty good. 

As of 8 a.m the biggest area of lingering snow was slowly moving south through the Champlain Valley, mostly in southern Chittenden and Addison counties so the roads are probably in the worst shape there. 

Secondary roads statewide are still not fully cleaned up, either.  So, as usual, take it easy this morning wherever you're going. 

It got a little above freezing overnight in the Champlain Valley, so the snow you're shoveling this morning might feel a little wet and heavy.  

It could get a little windy at times as the morning goes on. It won't be anything wild like we had last week. But it will blow snow off the trees, so if you're driving through areas that have a lot of pine trees, for instance, you might have brief problems with visibility. 

Today and tonight will be mainly cloud, with a few places getting some clearing. It will be seasonably cool in the upper 20s today, so no big deal there.

WINTRY FORECAST

 This is turning out to so far be the harshest winter in a decade, and there's no rest for the weary. 

But it looks like we're about to get back into the regime we had in early and mid December. That means frequent bouts of frigid air extending into January. In between those Arctic blasts, we'll have mostly small to medium-sized storms. We'll also have those dreaded windy days fairly frequently, too. 

Christmas Day will bring us the start of those series of cold blasts.  The first half of the day will be OK, with temperatures in the 20s to near 30 and some scattered snow showers. But a cold front will come through in the afternoon. That's when temperatures will start to crash and wind will pick up.

By late in the afternoon and the evening, winds will be gusting to 30 or 35 mph again. Overnight, temperatures will tumble and end up close to zero by Friday morning. On Friday itself, highs will only be in the upper single number to mid teens. At least the winds will die down by then.

Friday night and early Saturday, a storm diving down from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states might clip southern Vermont with just a little snow. Then, temperatures will hold roughly steady Saturday night and rise into the 20s Saturday. That'll give us a quiet interlude until the next storm.

That one will probably come in later Sunday, as it looks now. Details on this are fuzzy, but it looks like we might be in for that dreaded mixed precipitation later Sunday, into Sunday night. and maybe into Monday morning. 

The computer models are still arguing amongst themselves as to whether will be mostly snow, ice or mostly rain. We'll have this nailed down a little better in a couple days. At least I hope so.

The storm could also bring some gusty winds. Then, on the back side of Sunday night's storm, it looks like we'll have more gusty winds and plunging temperatures. Those cold temperatures looks like they'll last most of next week.

Enjoy or at least endure this year's flashback to what winters used to be like. 

 

Deadly Atmospheric Rivers Swamp West Coast From British Columbian To Oregon, Now Targeting California

As rain began in San Francisco
Saturday it was already chaos
A power blackout meant many
driverless Waymo taxis stalled 
in intersections because they
didn't know what to do with
traffic signals that weren't working. 

After trashing British Columbia, Washington, and eventually Oregon this month, atmospheric rivers continue to harass the West Coast, and now the main target has shifted to California. 

The storms have caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage in the Pacific Northwest. The wind energy from these storms has spread further damage from Idaho to New England. 

By the time we're done with these storms after Christmas. the entire area from north of Vancouver, British Columbia to San Diego, California will have been soaked and flooded and blasted. . 

I think this has turned out to be the nation's latest disasters costing $1 billion or more. And the damage will keep adding up. 

Let's take stock of what has already happened, and what we're bracing for, moving north to south. 

BRITISH COLUMBIA

The storms this month have caused a lot of power outages and flooding in British Columbia. Hundred of thousands of people lost electricity as surges of powerful winds blew through on several occasions in mid-December.

Ironically, drought in recent years has made the storms more damaging in British Columbia. Trees are weakened and damaged from the drought, making them more likely to snap and blow over in storms. 

Flooding hit British Columbia's Fraser Valley, damaging hundreds of homes   The Noosack River, which crossed into British Columbia from Washington, caused much of the flooding. 

Chilliwack, British Columbia had about 15 inches of rain between December 9 and 15, causing plenty of flooding and some landslides around the city, which is not far north of the border with Washington State. 

Power has not yet been 100 percent restored in British Columbia and some roads and highways remain closed due to flooding, washouts and mudslides. 

WASHINGTON

The last big atmospheric river surge finished crashing through Washington this past Tuesday into Wednesday with another gush of downpours and an even bigger gush of wind, as we noted the other day. 

Since then, the downpours have mostly devolved into the usual Pacific Northwest drizzles and mountain snows. But the damage is done and new post-storm problems keep popping up. 

Continued light rain, with a few bursts of heavier rain, falling on already super-soaked soil, is seriously increasing the risk of landslides in western Washington State. 

Sharp slopes on coastal bluffs, steep hillsides, road cuts and recently burned wildfire areas are most at risk. There have been several landslides already this weekend, The threat should continue for several days. 

A large marina in Tacoma was badly wrecked by debris and wind. Multitudes of trees were washed into the harbor by flooding rivers. Then, high winds turned those floating trees into battering rams, destroying docks and boats. 

Rainfall has been pretty incredible in some areas right along the Pacific Coast and in higher elevations. Forks, Washington, a little inland from the Pacific Ocean in northwest Washington, has received 22.1 inches of rain so far this month. 

Rain during the atmospheric rivers reached high into the mountains, melting the snow that usually forms a thick blanket way up on those slopes.  The snow levels are now down to normal elevations, and the fluff is finally piling up in the Cascades.

OREGON

In Oregon, one person died when he drove around flood barriers and got caught in swift, deep floodwaters. Elsewhere in Oregon, a family of five was rescued from a pickup truck that got caught in swift water. 

In Tillamook County, five drivers had to be rescued from floodwaters, most of them after they drove around barricades. 

The Clackamas River rose 26 feet, flooding through homes and leaving yards littered with large trees and other debris. 

Landslides closed many roads in Oregon, including several near Mount Hood National Forest; along a section of the Columbia River Highway and in Oregon City.  

The rain in Oregon has tapered off some, but rivers are still flooding, even if they are gradually receding. Forecasts of daily rain coming up through the next week, will slow the Oregon recovery. 

CALIFORNIA

Next on the atmosphere river hit list is California.  

The first blast of atmospheric river downpours is hitting California from roughly the Bay Area north. Flooding is a good bet today and tomorrow in many areas of northern California, but areas near Placerville, Oroville and Paradise, in the Sierra Nevada foothills. These areas could get five to seven inches of rain in the next 24 hours. 

Heavy rain would continue in those same foothill areas tomorrow, making any flooding even worse.

Another surge of deep moisture off the Pacific will renew heavy rains in California, and those downpours will spread south.

By Tuesday night and Christmas Eve, rainfall rates through much of the L.A area, especially higher elevations, could reach to an inch per hour or more. This sets the stage for lots of mudslides and debris flows, especially in areas that saw wildfires in the past couple of years. 

Moisture content in the storm will be near record high levels, according to the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles. The flood watch for northern California is lasting a long time. It starts today, and goes into next Friday. 

 In less than a week, Los Angeles could receive more than five inches of rain. Normal rainfall for the entire month of December in L.A. is 2.3 inches. 

Snow levels will be high in the Sierra Nevada, so some places that usually get snow in the winter will see rain. Rain today is falling at elevations below 8,800 feet, and the snow level should slowly drop to 7,400 feet, give or take, by Tuesday night  

Way, way up there in the high Sierra, accumulations this week will range from four to ten feet, or even more.

It's going to be a long, long, tedious Christmas week for California.   

Saturday Vermont Update: Big, Gusty Storm Over; But It Will Stay Windy And Changeable

Tree and wires down on Stone House Road in Enosburg
yesterday. Photo by Christopher Bergeron via Facebook

The weather was certainly all over the place on Friday, with those howling winds, record highs, drenching downpours, then crashing temperatures. 

See last night's post for a complete rundown of record highs and top wind speeds across Vermont. 

We won't have anything quite that extreme for awhile. But it's going to stay windy with more yo-yo temperatures for the next several days. 

Before we get into that, a couple more aspects of that wild storm we had yesterday. We here in New England were actually the victim of an atmospheric river, much like what hit the Pacific Northwest last week. 

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow regions in the atmosphere, basically rivers in the sky, that transport enormous amounts of water from the tropics. The average atmosphere river carries an amount of water vapor equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to NOAA. 

The difference is, yesterday's atmospheric river targeted us only for a very short period of time. The Pacific Northwest event was a fire hose aimed at the same spot for weeks. 

Our atmospheric river, which originated in the Gulf of Mexico, was a lot like a firefighter sweeping his hose across a long, burning wall. We only got soaked for a few hours. 

But you can tell how strong these wet tropical fire hoses are.  We had those record highs, statewide, including that 63 degrees in Burlington. It was also Burlington's wettest December 19 on record, with 0.84 inches. Virtually all that rain fell in just five hours. 

Atmospheric rivers, working in tandem with storm systems. more often than not cause strong, often damaging winds. Which is what we saw in Vermont Saturday. 

Yesterday's atmospheric river didn't last long enough to cause any flooding. But they can cause havoc in New England, and they have. Our huge, catastrophic flood in July, 2023 was caused by an atmospheric river. 

According to reporting by Inside Climate News, researchers have concluded that atmospheric rivers along in the eastern United States  are increasing in frequency, while those on West Coast are decreasing, this month's weather notwithstanding. 

Between 1980 and 2020, eastern atmospheric river activity from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean increased at a rate of five percent per decade, according to the research.  Most of those atmospheric rivers affected the southeastern U.S, but some of them do make it up into the Northeast. 

One caveat: The distinction is a little dim between an atmospheric river and just blobs of deep moisture coming off the Gulf  and Atlantic. But this atmospheric river situation is a climate change signal that we ought to keep an eye on. It could be helping grow the propensity for extremes in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Over the next few days atmospheric rivers will be back to tormenting the West Coast. More on that on an  upcoming, separate post. 

There's no immediate sign of another atmospheric river for us anytime soon. But a fast coast-to-coast jet stream across the northern United States will ensure constantly changing weather here in Vermont, and a more windy days and nights.. 

Luckily, I don't see signs of winds getting as strong as they did yesterday. 

As of 9:45 a.m. today, there were still about 2,800 Vermont customers without electricity. A second big push of wind overnight kept creating new outages even as crews fixed problems created during the day Friday. Other damage included a building in downtown Winooski, where winds blew off a large section of brick veneer from the structure. 

The wind has died down, and the sun is out, so we're getting a Saturday break from all the noise outdoors. But it's a short break. Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

Another storm passing well to our north will pull in some stiff southerly winds over the Champlain Valley tonight. We won't get much precipitation out of it, maybe a few snow showers tomorrow morning. 

The storm will create strange temperature trends again, only this time it won't be extreme. Temperatures will slowly rise into the low 30s overnight instead of falling like they usually do. And during the day Sunday, temperatures will fall in the late morning and afternoon instead of rising like they're supposed to. 

For those of you who have no snow left on the ground after yesterday's storm, there's still one last chance of a white Christmas. 

It looks like another storm diving southeastward from the Great Lakes will cross New England Tuesday, laying down a stripe of snow across the region. Not much. Early guesses put us in the two to four inch range. And there's a possibility it could get warm enough for the snow to mix with rain. 

We'll get updates as we get closer to the event. 

Beyond Tuesday, it gets even harder to predict what will happen. With such a fast west to east flow in the atmosphere, it can get tricky to tease out when each disturbance will come through, how strong they might be, and whether enough warm air will come in to mix in some rain or ice with the snow chances. 

The weather pattern will mean more spells of gusty winds, so hang on to your Santa hat. 

Meteorologists, and probably everyone else will need to stay on their weather toes Christmas week. But I don't see any signs of another big storm anytime soon. 

Thursday Morning Vermont Storm Update: Expect

Expected rainfall with our upcoming storm is still
close to an inch or so. That, combined with melting
snow, might set off some scattered flooding on Friday. 

This morning, Vermont is in the calm before the storm, as we get ready for a blast of strong winds, possible power outages rain, and maybe some flooding. 

So let's get into what we think will happen with this storm, based on what the National Weather Service in South Burlington has assembled for us.

WIND, ROUND ONE

Wind storms have caused widespread damage across the western half of the U.S, and some of that energy will affect Vermont with this storm.

The first places in Vermont to see the wind will be the Champlain Valley, as south winds ahead of the storm funnel up the valley this afternoon and overnight. 

A wind advisory is up for the Champlain Valley from noon today until 7 a.m. Friday.   Those gusts could reach as high as 50 or 55 mph, so expect a few power outages. There's a lot of Christmas decorations out there. If you have 'em, it might be a good idea to go out and secure them this morning, or take them indoors temporarily. 

If you do take them indoors, you might not want to put them back out until Saturday. More on that in a bit. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, today and tonight will be blustery but it won't be as bad as in the Champlain Valley. 

Temperatures that were below freezing for awhile this morning will rise all day and through the night, rising through the 30s today and 40s tonight. 

We won't see much rain with this storm probably until after midnight. Once it starts to rain in earnest, the wind might diminish somewhat in most, but not all areas. A few unpredictable pockets could still have some strong winds. And it will remain rather gusty in the Champlain Valley even after the rain gets going in the hours before dawn Friday. 

In other words, expect a noisy night. 

RAIN/FLOOD RISK

Overall, NWS/Burlington expects about an inch of rain more or less across Vermont. Really, between about 0.75 and 1.25 inches. That warm weather overnight an early Friday will add another inch or snow of "rain" in the form of snowmelt from the mountains. 

Most of this would come within about 18 hours, so that's a pretty fast flush of water into Vermont's rivers.  That could be enough to set of some minor flooding.  Most of the rain would come between about 3 a.m. and noon Friday, give or take a couple hours either side. 

For now, the Mad River at Moretown is forecast to rise to just under minor flood stage around noon tomorrow.  The Otter Creek at Center Rutland would be just under flood stage Friday afternoon or evening.

As of early this morning, there's not yet forecast peak river level forecasts for the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Passumpsic and other Vermont rivers, but I'm sure you'll see sharp rises with those. 

Also  some small streams might get too rowdy, there might be some street flooding, and newly created ponds in some backyards. State highways for the morning commute will probably become Hydroplane Hell. 

The river crest forecasts we have are not set in stone, so keep an eye out if you live or drive or work in a flood-prone spot.  This storm reminds me a little of the one we got in December, 2023. That one produced unexpectedly destructive flooding across much of Vermont. 

I do NOT expect things to get nearly as bad as December, 2023.  We won't have as much rain, and it won't rain for as long a period as it did in 2023. The ground before tomorrow's storm is drier than in 2023 and river levels before the storm are lower than in 2023. Which is why we won't have a repeat of that December flood two years ago.   

However, given how much moisture this storm has, and how climate change has sometimes made storms more intense than expect, it's possible we'll be surprised in the end with a few flood-closed roads and maybe even a few basements with water in them.

Overall, it will be a wet feet kind of day on Friday. 

WIND, ROUND TWO

The storm's strong cold front should blow through Vermont between mid morning and mid-afternoon. At least that's the timing we're thinking at this point. 

It looks like the cold front will come through with a big gush of wind and rain. It'll essentially act like a squall. The high winds with it won't last long, but they'll do their best to tear down some trees, branches and power lines during their brief, loud visit.   

Once we get through that, winds will pick up from the west and become gusty Friday afternoon and night. This time, the strongest winds would be along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, Especially the southern Green Mountains. Another wind advisory is in effect for southern Vermont tonight through early Saturday.  

Temperatures will be dropping through the afternoon and evening, eventually freezing things up. Rain will change to snow, although there won't be much of it. It'll be less than an inch, except maybe a bit more in the mountains. 

Huge Windstorm Causing Havoc Through Most Of Western U.S.

Wind damage on the campus of the University of
Idaho in Moscow, Idaho. Strong, damaging winds
are hitting a remarkably huge area of the western
and central U.S. 

A widespread windstorm is slamming much of the western United States today as powerful storms and an even more powerful jet stream are roiling the atmosphere. 

Alerts for strong winds extend 1,400 miles from the West Coast in Washington and Oregon to Iowa. This is the second widespread area of strong, destructive winds in a week, and this second one is the worse of the two. 

Washington State has been enduring atmospheric river storms for over a week now. The state suffered its first fatality when a man accidentally drove his truck into a ditch while driving into a flooded road that had been closed. 

Overnight, an immense surge of wind blustered into Washington and Oregon. A gust of 138 mph was measured on Mount Hood in Oregon this morning. In high elevation Washington, gusts reached 112 at Alpental, 99 mph in White Pass and 82 mph at Snoqualmie Pass. 

Where torrential rains fell in the past week in the Olympic and Cascade mountains, blizzard warnings were up today.

As of this morning, the winds had cut power to 500,000 in Washington and Oregon. Across the border in British Columbia, Canada, about 90,000 people had their electricity cut by the gales. 

The winds raced into eastern Washington and Idaho this morning. Lewiston, Idaho gusted to 84 mph and Moscow, Idaho reported 81 mph. Spokane measured a gust to 75 mph. Coeur d'Alene, in northern Idaho, had severe thunderstorms and gusts this morning to 66 mph. 

Another seriously out of season severe thunderstorm packing winds of up to 70 mph was menacing Twin Falls in southern Idaho this morning. Two children were reportedly critically injured in Twin Falls when a tree fell on them as they were waiting for a school bus. 

Remarkably, virtually all of the vast states of Montana and Wyoming are under high wind warnings today, as are most of the Dakotas and Nebraska.  Near the Rocky Mountains in Montana, winds could reach 100 mph.  

It's been oddly warm in western Montana, with heavy rains. The winds will topple more trees than usual for a strong winter storm since the ground is so wet and not frozen like it usually is this time of year. 

The winds in Montana and Wyoming are expected to be strong enough to cut power, sometimes for days, create blinding dust storms and topple tractor trailers. The National Weather Service and officials in both states are discouraging truck traffic because of the impending storm. 

The National Weather Service is comparing the looming Montana storm to the high winds of January, 2021. That storm brought wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph to cities like Great Falls, Helena and Havre. The 2021 storm. also set off some destructive rangeland fires in Montana. The same is possible in central and eastern Montana today, as those areas have not gotten nearly as much snow and rain as areas west of the Continental Divide. 

Similar fears have erupted in Colorado, where intense winds are in the forecast today along the Front Range and the Plains to the east.  The fire risk today actually extends from southeast Wyoming, through central and eastern Colorado down into New Mexico. 

 Memories of the December, 2021 firestorm around Boulder, Colorado are still fresh. Violent downslope winds fanned a wildfire that raced through Boulder-area subdivisions

That fire was the worst and most costly in Colorado history, destroying more than 1,000 homes. The fear is, it could happen again in the upcoming windstorm. 

Winds will be ferocious this time but not as bad as in 2021. Top winds then reached 100 mph. This time, they'll be closer to 80 mph. But that's more than enough for dangerous wildfires. Especially since it has been unusually dry and warm lately.  

The utility Xcel sent a notice to customers Tuesday telling to expect possible power outages.  The utility might shut off power in susceptible areas to avoid the risk of wildfires.  That way, if power lines snap in the wind, they won't start fires because the juice will be off.  

As of early this afternoon, wind worries were spreading. A high wind warning is up for parts of western New York tomorrow. Most of the rest of New York, along with parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont are under wind advisories. 

The stormy regime out west shows no signs of ending. More storms will crash into Washington, Oregon and California several times before New Years Day.