Southern Vermont Still Above Water, New York Hudson Valley Badly Flooded

A historic grist mill said to date back to the 1700s 
collapsed and was destroyed amid floodwaters
today in New York's Hudson Valley. A few towns
south of Albany had nearly a foot of rain. So far,
no serious flooding has been reported in 
Vermont and the threat of flooding is 
diminishing in the Green Mountain State.

So far, as of late this afternoon, the epicenter of the flooding in the Northeast is not quite here in Vermont, but close to it. If we get through this evening, southern Vermont will have dodged a bullet.  

Parts of New York's Hudson Valley, especially in and around the Albany Capitol District, is inundated after what some are calling one in one thousand year rainfall amounts.

Some of those rainfall amounts in New York are insane. Castleton-On-Hudson, south of Albany, had reported 11.47 inches of rain by 3:30 p.m. Nearby Kinderhook had 11.37 inches. Several other towns had five to nine inches of rain

As you'd imagine, several communities around Albany were under states of emergency today. Many roads are closed, buildings are damaged and cars submerged. 

Southern Vermont's rainfall has so far fallen just short of enough to cause serious flooding. If the epicenter of the torrential downpours was just 20 or 30 miles further east, we'd have a different story on our hands.

Still, some rainfall totals in the southern Green Mountains are impressive. West Dover had 5.55 inches. Stamford reported 4.94 inches and Pownall had 4.54 inches. 

The far southern Green Mountains still face a flood threat for the next several hours as a weird storm continues to wander through New England, pulling in tons of Atlantic moisture along the way. 

As of late this afternoon, radar images of the storm's rainfall starting to look a little like that of a wintertime nor'easter. On the far northwestern flank, a narrow band of downpours was moving westward in northwest New York, toward Lake Ontario.

A band of moderate rain was twirling northwestward through central and northern Vermont. I don't think we need to worry about that piece of rain. It'll just wet down some areas that still need rain.   Lighter showers were falling between those two bands.

The storm itself seemed to be centered in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts Ahead of it, another band of Berkshires. A narrow, but very potent line of torrential rain was pinwheeling northward, then northwestward across central Massachusetts and toward southern Vermont. 

A flood warning went up for far southern and southeastern Vermont at  4:47 p.m. today because of that heavy rain band. 

Whether the flooding will be serious or not depends on how well that  band holds together and whether it keeps aiming at southern parts of the Green Mountain State,  The rain band did appear to be fizzling somewhat as it entered Vermont. And it was showing signs of pushing east into New Hampshire.   There's an excellent chance Vermont will have escaped another destructive flood. 

Further north into south central Vermont, places like Ludlow, Shrewsbury, Weston, Mount Holly, and Killington, the flood threat hs gotten very low. It's still possible an area of downpours could create a local problem, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one. I think you're safe. 

The rain ended earlier today in northern Vermont. But more light showers will come in, thanks in part to that band of rain working north across the state. More showers will follow overnight. But amounts will range from a tenth of an inch far north to maybe a half inch or a little more in central Vermont. 

Phew! 

 

Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Evening Vermont Storm Update: Despite Smoke, Dangerous Storms, Tornadoes Risk Continues Now Through Pre-dawn Hours

Satellite photo this evening. Still a lot of wildfire 
smoke over and near Vermont. That might or might
not interfere with storm develop. Some are 
developing. White splotches over extreme 
northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire
and part of Maine were strong storms as of 6 p.mm
Other storms firing east of Montreal, A nasty clump
of storms well north of Ottawa in the upper left
of the photo are heading in our general direction
and could be severe for us if they hold together 

 Wildfire smoke is still making our storm forecast more difficult than it otherwise would be, but signs continue to point toward severe weather. 

For much of the day, it looked like western Maine would suffer the worst of this outbreak.  But it hasn't warmed up as much ax forecast in the main Maine risk zone, so to speak. At 4 p.m., Rangeley, Maine was only 73 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 80s would have helped make storms more powerful. Maine might still get nailed, but the lower temperatures raise questions about the severe threat there. 

Here in Vermont, it's also a bit cooler than forecast, but still much warmer than northwestern Maine. As of 5 p.m., it was well into the 80s, with a couple spots close to 90 degrees. The dew point had risen to near 70 across the state. 

Those are super juicy conditions for storms. 

The winds are also veering with height, and are pretty strong higher up.  Here down on the ground, winds are from the southwest. Higher up, the winds are westerly. Go up even further to jet stream level, the winds are northwesterly. 

That's a great set up for severe weather. 

With all these ingredients for storms, we  just need the trigger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington said that so far, the smoke has tamped down attempts at thunderstorms. But the approaching cold front, and a so-called pre-frontal trough ahead of it, would overcome the smoke and fire up some storms. 

At least that's what the thinking was as of late this afternoon.

At this point, as of nearly 6 p.m., it's still unclear whether this will develop into the nasty severe outbreak that has been forecasted since yesterday, or a total forecast bust/false alarm, or somewhere in between.

There were storms starting to fire in southern and central Quebec. There was a nasty batch of storms well north of Ottawa. We'll see if they hold together, as they were heading in our general direction. 

I'd keep planning on a severe outbreak if I were you. The ingredients are still all there. We're just waiting for the proper triggers. Even if those triggers never fire, what have you lost by bracing yourself for the possibility of nasty storms. 

As of 6 p.m., meteorologists much smarter than me were still insisting the triggers will fire tonight. In a Facebook post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said confidence in severe weather tonight "continues to increase"

 The NWS also said the wildfire smoke would have little, if any effect on the storms. It's just a matter of how well the atmosphere triggers work tonight. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is more nuanced for this evenings outlook. Wildfire smoke and a general cloudiness might be inhibiting storms. As of 7 p.m., they were still on the fence on whether to issue a severe storm watch. 

Still, if storms can overcome these factors, severe storms will erupt.

We've still got the risk of destructive straight line winds, maybe a a couple of tornadoes. Somewhere in northern New England, a tornado might turn out to be strong. There's also the risk of large hail, local flash floods and continuous lightning. 

Not everybody will see those dire weather conditions. But a few places might. From now until about 3 a.m., you'll need a way to receive storm or tornado warnings, just in case. Don't put your phone on do not disturb. 

It's also important to note it's impossible to tell who will receive a severe storm and who will avoid them in advance. We won't know until just before the storms hit. 

READING THE TEA LEAVES

Like every meteorologist and weather geek around, I've been constantly looking at satellite images and weather radar, and other data to see what's going on. 

Things change fast with these severe weather episodes, but here's a snapshot at what we see shortly before 6 p.m. 

A patch of clouds over northern Vermont late this afternoon was preventing storms from firing up.  It was expected that we wouldn't see much of anything during the afternoon, so this part was expected. 

It had gotten interesting just north of the border, though. Just north of the border was a narrow line of roiling clouds, some of which were developing into thunderstorms. A 

 At 5:19 p.m. today, one storm on that line prompted the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day, covering the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Other thunderstorms were trying to develop further west along that line of clouds, but they were struggling. 

There's sort of a temperature boundary between the relatively cool air in northwest Maine and the warmer, more humid air in Vermont. So I'm suspecting the Northeast Kingdom will see thunderstorms start fairly early this evening, as thunderstorms like to form along boundaries. 

Speaking of boundaries, there's a pre-frontal trough south of the main cold front. Pre-frontal troughs are common in severe weather outbreak. They are a line of disturbed weather usually a few dozen miles ahead of the actual cold front. 

The pre-frontal trough was encouraging thunderstorms far to the northwest of Montreal. They're embedded in wildfire smoke, so we're unsure if the smoke will interfere with further development or not. 

In any event, the main show happens after 8 a.m. and continues to around 2 or 3 in the morning. If the forecast is correct, waves of storms will move down from Quebec into northeast New York, northern Vermont, northen New Hampshire and northwest Maine. 

Again, if the storms develop, they'll be a mix of supercells and short lines of intense storms Those supercells are the prime suspects for forming a couple tornadoes tonight. Very few people will actually be affected by any tornadoes. But still, oe or two of them could still be strong.

The bigger danger is still straight line winds. The worst storms could have wind gusts of over 75 mph. If one of those comes through where you live, you'll see a lot of damage. 

This isn't to say everybody gets severe weather. Some of the storms will indeed be severe, even intense. Other areas in the higher risks zones will wake up tomorrow morning wondering what all the fuss was about. 

The storms should still weaken as they head toward southern Vermont after midnight. 

WHAT TO DO

The first and most important thing to do is have at least one way to receive severe storm warnings all night. Fully charge your phone, leave it on your nightstand and have it set to blare if a severe storm or tornado warning goes up for your area.

You'll need to act fast if you get a warning, especially if it's  a tornado warning. Have sturdy shoes next to your bed that you can slip on quickly. Also a flash light or better yet  a head lamp so your hands will be free. 

Make sure you're able to scoop up any pets on the way to the basement. 

Some of the severe thunderstorms, if they develop, might have winds equivalent to a tornado so head to the basement even if it's a severe storm warning instead of a tornado warning. If you don't have a basement go into a small interior windowless space like a bathroom or closet. Put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. 

If you're still camping, get out of the woods now if not sooner. Any forested area will be really dangerous if an intense storm or tornado comes along. 

Before the storms arrive, secure outdoor furniture and plants early this evening before the storms arrive. I'll be doing that as soon as I finish this post. 

Above all, don't work yourself up over this. It is a bigger severe threat than we're used to in northern New England. But for most of us, the worst we'll endure ia a noisy night with lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds and torrential rains in may spots. 

An unlucky minority of us in the North Country unfortunately face real danger and likely property damage if the storms develop as meteorologists were anticipating as of 6 p.m. 

Just take your precautions this evening and stay weather aware overnight 

Quick Early Tuesday I'Afternoon New England Storm Update

Satellite view as of 1:30 p.m. there's thick smoke
in New England and far southern Quebec. It's 
visible as that brown stuff.The thunderstorms
are further up in Quebec, and beginning
to affect Maine. We're unsure yet whether 
the smoke will affect the intensity of 
the expected storms tonight. 

Early this afternoon, another round of updates has come through the transom regarding the severe weather forecast for this evening in northern New England. 

The overall philosophy is the same: Meteorologists still expect a mix of supercells and clusters of potentially severe storms crossing the border from Quebec toward evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center updated their severe storm outlook early this afternoon, like they usually do. 

The major change is an upgrade to the tornado risk in western Maine. Up there, we have a 10 percent chance of  tornado within 25 miles of a given point. 

It's still at least a five percent of a twister in a given point across northern Vermont and New Hampshire and extreme northeast New York. 

Strong straight line winds are still be far the greatest risk tonight. 

Wildfire smoke is still a wild card. It's blocking the sun, and it's not warming up as much as forecast. This smoke is much thicker than all the computer models expected. Will that mess up the instability necessary to fuel this severe storm outbreak? 

As of early afternoon the thickest smoke had moved east out of Vermont. But thick smoke was still stretched out in a band along either side of the Canadian border. Here in St. Albans as of 1:30, the atmosphere has a sick puke yellow color, and the sun is showing as a dim red dot in the sky. 

There are a few signs the pollution could diminish the storms. As of 1:30 p.m. I'm kind of unimpressed with the storms far to our north in Quebec. However, there is plenty of time for these storms to develop to dangerous levels.

I'm also seeing hints that Maine and northern New Hampshire, and probably the Northeast Kingdom might have the earliest and most intense storms this evening. There looks like there might be several bursts of storms through midnight, with the severe threat lasting well into the night. 

So far, it seems to be full steam ahead with the severe storm expectations.  The atmosphere is pretty primed for storms.  I'll have an update late this afternoon.  Meanwhile, you can read my full morning report with more details by clicking on this link. 

. 

Thursday Afternoon Update: Not As Hot As Forecast, But Still Ridiculous: Storm Chances Iffy, Brief Tumble In Humidity Sunday?

Thunderstorms just beginning to erupt in the
Champlain Valley on Wednesday. They quickly grew
to severe levels. A much more iffy proposition for
storms this evening after a very hot day, but they
are still possible, 

As of 4 p.m. today, Burlington was up to 95 degrees, so the city won't make it up to that promised 100 degrees. It might go up a couple more degrees, but we won't make it to 100. Not a bummer.

The heat index in Burlington at 4 p.m., though, was 101, due to the humidity. The highest actual temperature I've so far today in Vermont is 96 in Springfield. 

By the way, I'm not in Vermont this afternoon, so I can say how jealous I am of the "cool" weather today up in Vermont. As I write this in Frederick, Maryland, it is 100.4 degrees, so I can say that's the hottest outdoor temperature I have ever experienced. Thu

The heat index here is 109. The actual temperature in Frederick is forecast to top out at 101 degrees both today and tomorrow, 

Back home in Vermont there are a few new glimmers of hope. 

First of all is thunderstorms potential. Given the heat and humidity, storms could pop up at any time or even become severe. But fingers crossed it does not look like severe thunderstorms will be as bad or widespread as they were yesterday. 

There were no storms brewing anywhere near Vermont as of 3 p.m. There was some stuff developing a little southwest of Ottawa. That might eventually move this way or set off some new storms here in Vermont this evening or overnight, but we can't be sure. 

The computer models haven't done a great job in the past few days predicting when, where and how much in terms of thunderstorms. That said, they don't give Vermont much in the way of lightning and thunder today and tomorrow. But I'm still suspicious of those storms near Ottawa.
We shall see!

Some more glimmers of hope for those of you who don't like the heat. And they are just glimmers.

Friday

It will be ever so slightly cooler tomorrow, we think .But still hot with highs at least 90 in most places. Also, the chances of thunderstorms are lower, but still there.  

Saturday, A few more showers, but not a washout. Cooler with highs in the 80s. Maybe a 90 far southeast.

Sunday. Here's the best news yet. The air coming in will be a little drier than first thought. It will still be in the 80s for highs, but the dew point should fall to near 60. Maybe even upper 50s in some spots. That bodes well for Sunday night. If this forecast comes true, we'll have refreshing governing lows in the 55 to 62 degree range. 

It still looks like it will stay quite warm next week. And on the warm and somewhat humid side, too. 

Long range forecasts could change, but for now, it looks like our best shot for  whoosh of truly cool, dry  air would come along a week from Saturday. 

Late Wednesday Afternoon Update: Severe Storm Watch Western Vermont Until 11 PM; Heat To Intensify Tomorrow

National Weather Service radar showed severe storms
near Massena, New York at 5:45 p.m today. More storms
were lurking in the general area of Ottawa, If those
storms hold together or new ones form, they could
create damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch
is in effect for western Vermont until 11 pm 

 A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for western Vermont and New York until 11 pm, tonight. 

In Vermont, the watch covers basically everywhere west of the Green Mountains.

There's been a nasty cluster of storms in southeast Ontario and extreme southwest Quebec much of this afternoon. 

By late afternoon, they were starting to move east and southeast. It's unclear how far east they'll make it. But there's enough of a threat to trigger the storm watch. 

As of 5:30 p.m., it looks dark looking northwest from Vermont's Champlain Valley. That didn't represent an immediate threat. It was the anvil top and shadow of the severe storms near Massena, New York that were making things darker.  However, in this hot, humid environments, storms could form under this anvil, and become severe. If they don't, the anvil will just produce at most light rain. 

The storms near and approaching New York's St. Lawrence Valley could eventually make it to the Champlain Valley with powerful winds later this evening. Not a guarantee yet, but keep your eyes out!  

Judging from satellite photos, it loos storm well up into Ontario,  which is where the storms ar coming from So it could be a rather stormy night here in Vermont if they hold together. 

The heat today didn't quite make it to forecast levels, at least in the Champlain Valley. Preliminary data indicates Burlington made it to 93 degrees, which was three degrees cooler than forecast. 

That doesn't necessarily mean tomorrow will be cooler than forecast. But I did notice the National Weather Service back away slightly from that previous forecast of 100 degrees. 

Have a way to get weather warnings this evening and tonight, just in case. You might want to turn off your "Do Not Disturb" feature on your phone so you can get warnings if they are issued overnight. 

Stay cool, my friends! 

Tuesday Evening Update: Few Severe Thunderstorm Still Possible Southern Vermont Next Couple Hour. North Just Wet/Cold

National Weather Service radar showed plenty of rain in the
cool air north, with thunderstorms, with a risk of
them becoming severe heading toward southern
Vermont from New York in the warn air down 
there The severe risk should end later this evening. 

 The northern half of Vermont got cheated out of a warm day today, but that chilly air that became established prevented any severe thunderstorms from forming up there. 

However, its a different world south, and as of 4:30 p.m. strong to possibly severe storms were heading toward Vermonts southern four counties. 

That weather front that is draped west to east across our area sharpened up this afternoon.  Temperatures late this afternoon were near 50 in northern areas, with some upper 40s near the Canadian border.

 In this colder air, a disturbance riding west to east along the front was only able to create a rainy afternoon. Some of the rain came down hard at times, and a couple areas reported a rumble or two of thunder, but that's about it. 

As mentioned, southern Vermont is a different world. It was 77 degrees in Rutland, 79 in Bennington and 80 in Springfield as of 4 p.m. Some sun broke out too. The warmth and the sun has made the air  south of that stalled front unstable enough too support strong thunderstorms .  

Those thunderstorms were racing in from  New York State, Some of those storms prompted severe storm warnings. And a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect this evening for the four southern counties of Vermont. 

Judging by how fast they're moving. it looks like the last of those storms will leave southeastern Vermont hy 7 p.m. or so. The rain in northern Vermont should taper off by around the same time. 

That weather front will stay pretty much put over Vermont for the next couple of days. While the contrast might not be as great as it was today, it still looks like we'll have at least a seasonably cool north and a balmy south in the Green Mountain State. 

More rounds of showers and storms are likely both Wednesday and Thursday. The chances of severe storms seem lower than they were today. We'll still have locally heavier downpours here and there north days  It sill doesn't look like it'll be enough to cause much if anything in terms of flooding. 

I'll have much more on this weird weather in tomorrow morning's post. -

Brief Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Drizzle To Become Patchy Freezing Drizzle As Tonight's Temperatures Drop

The slush I photographed outside my house late this 
afternoon will be slippery ice by the time I get up
in the morning. Bits of freezing drizzle overnight
won't help, either. 

That slush in northern Vermont is going to freeze soon, while those areas, and some other parts of the state face the prospect of freezing drizzle tonight. 

Most of the snow fell in far northern Vermont, as we alluded to this morning.  It turned out to be much less widespread than predicted. Almost everybody south of Route 2 had less than an inch. 

The highest accumulations we saw were also less than the highest accumulations we thought we'd see. Those higher amounts include 5.5 inches in West Burke; 5.4 inches in Maidstone and 4.5 inches in North Hyde Park.

The rest of the day turned into the very definition of miserably dreary. The far southwest corner of Vermont did break out into slightly warmer air, as Bennington made it to 48 degrees. The rest of us endured low clouds, fog, drizzle and a cold light rain.

That's about to get worse, As of late this afternoon, temperatures in northern and central Vermont will slowly sinking, and the moisture in the air was not going away. 

That sets us up for freezing drizzle tonight. It will be more widespread than the patches of it we had Friday night. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service tells us patchy freezing drizzle will continue off and on all night and into tomorrow morning. And, all that slush and water is going to freeze up overnight, too. The freezing drizzle itself will only create a thin scrim of ice, but that's enough to slow you down on the way to work tomorrow.

There were already a number of traffic accidents earlier today as a bit of snow, then freezing drizzle then drizzle that didn't quite melt the ice kept things hectic for Vermont State Police. 

By afternoon, the character of the day will change as the atmosphere starts getting windier and more unstable. That will send some snow showers flying through the air here and there, but it won't about to much.

Quick Saturday Vermont Evening Update: More Snow Still Coming, Won't Disappear Fast

Yet another National Weather Service snow forecast map,
this one for tomorrow Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. 

The sun finally started to shine and more between the clouds this afternoon as those clouds slowly thinned.  

Some of the snow across the north was melting, but not all of it. And we still have more coming tomorrow. More on that in a sec. 

You can see this time of year how snow helps refrigerate the air.  

Where snow covered the ground in the north, mid-afternoon temperatures were mostly in the mid-30s. In southern Vermont, where this is no snow, it was in the low and mid 40s.

With more snow coming nearly statewide, and a generally chilly weather pattern, perhaps until April Fool's Day, I guess we have to say winter is back for now. 

That chilly air over the next 10 days will be made slightly colder than it otherwise would be if the ground was free of snow,   

It's an example of how cold weather patterns this type of year sometimes reinforce themselves.

STORM UPDATE

Now that I've thoroughly depressed you, let's talk about tomorrow's snow. So far, not much has changed with the forecast. The bulk of the snow should come through between a little before dawn to early afternoon. 

Within that time frame, we could have a thump of fairly heavy snow for two or three hours.  That'll be enough to make the roads icy and snow covered again, The worst driving condition will be through the morning and maybe into the early afternoon. This will be another wet snow, but in northern Vermont it maybe not quite as cement-like as Friday's. We'll see about that. 

Total accumulations look like they'll be 2 inches or so in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. But once again, those two places are the wild cards that are most likely to get much more, or much less snow than forecast. 

Places with an elevation of 1,000 feet or more can expect three or four inches, maybe a little more in some spots. At this point, the Northeast Kingdom is in the running for a little more, maybe six inches of snow or so.

The northern Green Mountains should get the most, with maybe seven or eight inches of snow. 

One little twist in the forecast is when the snow tapers off in the afternoon, it could mix with drizzle or freezing drizzle in many spots. The freezing drizzle would obviously keep things on the icy side. And places with just plain drizzle tomorrow could end up with it freezing at night. 

We'll be in the midst of the snow will I post about it tomorrow morning. I'll have updates of course, and also, what to expect for the rest of the week. 'Spoiler: Not really springlike! 

Friday Evening Vermont Update: Unexpected Champlain Valley Snow Blitz Ending

 Um, happy spring?

Road conditions and visibility were horrible on
Route 15 in Colchester, and in the rest of the 
Champlain Valley this afternoon

Vermont and New York's Champlain Valley got a traffic-snarling dump of snow today, as many of you have already figured out. 

Spring arrived at 10:46 this morning and it started snowing literally minutes after that. 

As I noted this morning, the Champlain Valley was going to be the wildcard with this brief but pretty intense storm. 

The hope was we'd get a fair amount of rain in addition to some slush coming out of the sky But temperatures ended up just a little cooler than everybody expected.

So, it really puked snow for awhile. Visibility was down to almost zero at times during the peak of the snow this afternoon.  

Burlington got 4.9 inches of snow, most of it in just three hours.  That was actually a record snowfall for today's date. The old record was 3.4 inches in 1951. As of early this morning, Burlington was only forecast to receive an inch of snow today. Oops. 

Although mostly snow was expected in northern Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains, the snow fell with such vengeance that there was trouble there, too.

A partial list of road closures because of today's snow include Route 74 in Cornwall, Route 100B in Moretown, Route 302 in Orange and Route 114 in East Burke. 

Back in the Champlain Valley, traffic slowed to a crawl. And backed up epically in some places. 

The 4.9 inches that Burlington got might not be the final total, as it was still snowing lightly when that accumulation was announced. 

The good news is that this blast of snow is pretty much done. The snow was leaving northern Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. and we have only flurries to look forward to tonight.  

Road conditions in the Champlain Valley were rapidly improving. Secondary roads were slushy for the most part as of 5 p.m. Interstate 89, which was a snow covered mess most of the afternoon, was pretty much just wet by 5 p.m. in the Champlain Valley. It helped that it got a little above freezing late this afternoon and this evening after the snow tapered off. 

Do be careful overnight and early Saturday, though. All that slush and water will refreeze, especially on untreated surfaces

Precipitation will keep going at a good rate further into the evening in southern Vermont, but most of that was falling as rain, as expected. 

Clouds will start to break up tomorrow morning and we'll get some sun at least some of the time.

And yes, we're at risk still of another storm Sunday that has a good chance of giving at least part of Vermont more snow. I'll have much more on that forecast today, along with news on continued fairly chilly and sometimes potentially snowy weather again in the upcoming week. 

Monday Vermont Evening Weather Update: Those Expected BIG Changes Coming Overnight

A have one patch of a really early variety of daffodil, so
I was happy to see this in today's warmth. (My other
daffodils are barely nubs emerging from the earth)
It's going to be awhile before all these grow further
as tonight's cold front will snap us back to reality. 

 I hope you enjoyed our incredibly brief warm spell today in Vermont because the cold front that will end it all is on our doorstep.

It was actually quite nice this afternoon as the wind died down, as expected and temperatures rose into the upper 50s.  We might not end up quite as warm as forecast, but 58 or so is still really nice for this time of year.

As winds increase this evening, some places will temporarily warm up even more.  Burlington went from 56 to 66 degrees between 6 and 7 p.m. as south winds started blowing there. 

As the front approaches this evening, winds will probably pick up again.   Some showers that were moving into Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. might limit the winds a little bit. But don't necessarily count on that. 

A wind advisory is still in effect for Vermont, and that has been extended to through 11 a.m Tuesday. More on why the advisory stays in effect for part of tomorrow further down a bit. A high wind warning remains in effect for a good chunk of northern New York. 

The rain should be showery, off and on for the next few hours. It'll briefly rain hard in many places when the front comes through later tonight.  This morning we said that should not be enough to cause flooding and that's still the case. So a bit of good news there. 

The actual cold front seems to be temporarily slowing down somewhat on approach to Vermont. Some of the computer models don't actually bring it into western Vermont until a little before midnight.  

The front will still be super noticeable when it comes through tonight for anyone who is still up. The temperature over in Syracuse, New York went from 66 to 46 degrees with an hour earlier this afternoon

In Vermont you'll wake up a completely different world than today's. Temperatures will be down to around 30, give or take. There might be a dusting of snow on the ground and the puddles will all be frozen. A cold west wind will be screaming with gust to 50 mph. Which is why that wind advisory is still in effect tomorrow. 

Expect a few scattered power outages between now and noon tomorrow. 

The winds will begin to slow down a little in the afternoon, but it'll still be blustery as hell. And actual temperatures will remain below freezing all day. Wednesday will also stay at or below freezing for most of us, but the wind should be lighter. 

It'll warm up a tiny bit for the end of the week, but it will be quite awhile before we see any balmy weather again. 

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Sunday Evening Blizzard Update: The Wild Weather Has Started

A prediction of what the radar imagery of this
nor'easter will look like later tonight. Sort of looks
like a hurricane but it's built completely 
different from one. 

Getting a late start on my brief evening blizzard update as I had to be elsewhere.

Our major blizzard in the Northeast is underway. 

Some of the stats a facts are absolutely impressive. Meteorologist Ben Noll  says that 42 million people expect major or extreme impacts from the storm; 30 million people are under a blizzard warning and 21 percent of the nation's population will be affected by the storm one way or another.    

As meteorologist Matthew Cappucci notes, this storm is a meteorological marvel. A calm, clear eye will develop in the storm. It's not the same mechanism that you see in hurricane but it makes the storm somewhat visually resemble a tropical system

Way out to sea, in the storm's warm sector, powerful supercell thunderstorms will develop, with waterspouts. Not the skinny little almost harmless things you sometimes see off the coast of Florida. Instead, these waterspouts would be Midwestern style powerful tornadoes. 

In much of the blizzard zone today. light wet snow and raind rops. As of 6 p.m. the snow intensity was starting to pick up. An offshore really heavy band of snow looked like it would make landfall in New Jersey and New York metro area by around 7 p.m. 

The blizzard should maintain its intensity in New Jersey and southern New York until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, 

In New England, Rhode Island has imposed a travel ban in the state starting at 7 p.m. this evening. New Jersey and New York City also have travel bans. I kind of wish Massachusetts would follow suit. I have at least one unconfirmed report that a couple major employers expect to see employees in the office tomorrow. 

If that's true, those businesses are incredibly irresponsible. Especially considering will dump 18  to 25 inches of badly windblown snow, propelled by winds of up to 75 mph near the coast. 

The National Weather Service office in the Boston area said:

"We can't stress this enough but this storm will likely bring extreme to destructive impacts south and east of the I-95 corridor, especially southeast MA and Cape Cod due to the combination of heavy, wet snow and damaging wind gusts. Heavy, wet snowfall amounts up to 2 ft with damaging winds presents a serious concern for tree damage and power outages."

 This thing means business! 

VERMONT EFFECTS 

Overall, the forecast for the big nor'easter hasn't  changed much. 

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are still under a winter storm warning for a windblown 6 t0 12 inches of snow.  That's a little more than what they were predicting this morning. Rutland and Windsor counties are still in for two to six inches. Northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east should get an inch or two, plus blowing snow due to stiff north winds. 

The northern and central Champlain Valley on Monday should only get an inch or less with those gusty winds an blowing snow.

There's still chances that snow bands could behave differently than currently forecast, so look for updates tomorrow morning

I'll have a detailed post on this nor'easter tomorrow morning, of course!

 

Vermont Wednesday Update: Winter Weather Advisory Dropped South, Storm Still Due Friday

Where'd the snow go?  The expected snow in southern
Vermont this evening. has gone pretty much gone poof
as an expected stripe of snow is weaker and further
 south this evening. 

Just a quick update for the evening: The snow that was going to hit southern Vermont with a few inches of snow is moving even further south than expected.

The winter weather advisory for Bennington  and Windham counties has been dropped. Far southern Vermont could still get a dusting to as much as an inch, but don't even count on that. 

This is a big switch since some forecasts two or three days ago had snow all the way to the Canadian border.  

Even after this flip flop in the forecast, there's still a slight chance southwest Vermont could get clipped with a little extra snow, since there's a very sharp line between nothing to the north and snowing at a good clip south.

If that line moves just 10 or 15 miles north, Bennington is back in play for snow. But it really doesn't look like that will be the case.    

Tomorrow will be a pleasant enough day with highs reaching the 30s in many locations. Forecasts still call for a 3 to 7 inch thump of snow Friday through Saturday. We'll see if there's any last minute revisions to that forecast, too.k 

I'll have a full update on Friday's potential snow in tomorrow morning's post. 

Big Snow Thump Hitting Vermont This Evening

At 4 p.m., Interstate 89 in Williston the pavement was dry
and it wasn't snowing yet, but..........

 As expected a burst of snow was moving into Vermont as I wrote this around 4:30 p.m. The roads should start getting snow covered and slick, if they aren't already.  

 If  you weren't home by 4 p.m. in western Vermont and if you're not home by 5 p.m. in the Connecticut Valley,  you'll deal with the snowy roads. 

The overall forecast hasn't changed much since the morning  Which means it will get worse as we head into the evening as the heaviest band of snow will come through west to east. During the peak of this, snow will come down at a rate of one to one and a half inches per hour. 

At that rate, the plows won't be great at keeping up with the snow, so it might not be worth it to wait the snow out before going home. Unless you want to wait until 9 or 10 or 11 tonight before driving home.  By then, it probably won't  be snowing as hard. 

Since this storm means road conditions will go from great to bad pretty quickly, I think some people might be caught off guard. Which is why for the next few hours, you might get stuck behind some slide offs and wrecks and fender benders and people whose vehicles have bald tires. 

Though this will storm will be poorly timed and fairly intense while people are driving home for the day, this is no blockbuster. 

By 5 p.m., that same stretch of Interstate was getting 
covered with snow and traffic was starting to back up

Considering this is a rather fluffy snow, and will only amount to 3 to 6 inches of new snow for most of us. The mountains might get a bit more. We're basically just getting our snow cover freshened up a bit. 

Our evening burst of snow in Vermont is being created in large part by a squirt of warm air that is approaching us, drawn northward by an Alberta clipper storm heading in from the west and northwest.

 It got up to near 40 degrees in Buffalo, New York today and 55 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania today. The abrupt shove of warm air is rising up and over a mass of chillier air. Moisture in the rising air condenses and falls out of the sky as snow

Hence the thump of snow we're getting. 

That warm air west of us will get cut off at the pass before it can ever make it to Vermont. 

 The storm that's helping cause this snow is still going to fade away over northern Vermont, or nearby overnight. A new storm will takes its place off the Maine coast. That'll ensure the winds shift to the north before the warm air can get here. It'll shunt that hint of spring to our south instead. 

During the period early tomorrow morning when the original storm is fading and the new one off the coast of Maine hasn't gotten its act together yet, we'll see a lull I'm the snowfall.  It might even stop for awhile in the morning. You might still want to get an early start tomorrow morning as roads could still be on the iffy side. 

The snow will probably blossom out again a little bit tomorrow afternoon and evening, mostly across northern Vermont. By then, the storm off the coast of Maine will have matured.  That storm will be strong enough to pull some moist air down from the North Atlantic Ocean via Quebec. You'll probably be driving around on some snow a slush in many areas tomorrow afternoon and evening, too.

By contrast, southeastern Vermont will probably be mostly done with this storm by tomorrow morning. 

We are also done with the subzero cold for at least a week, and probably longer than that. Above freezing temperatures might arrive as soon as this Sunday. I'll have more on that in  my morning report. 

Lake Champlain Ice Watch: Not Entirely Frozen Yet!

Visible satellite photo of Vermont and surrounding areas
this afternoon. Clear skies allowed us to see the ice 
situation on Lake Champlain. The dark blue area is
where the lake is not frozen yet. 

 Nope, Lake Champlain is not completely frozen over yet. 

It got clear enough for visible satellite photos to give us a good view today.  As you can see in the photo here, there's a large blue patch in the middle of the lake. That's open water. 

The northern half of the lake is solidly frozen. It's been that way for days or weeks, depending on exactly where you are. The narrow, shallower southern end of the lake is frozen over, too.

If the lake completely freezes, it will probably be at least a few days before that happens. More ice will very likely get manufactured tonight, since temperatures are forecast to go slightly below zero. But a light breeze will also probably continue all night, so that might slow the process down. 

Temperatures will moderate into the low to mid 20s by day and single digits to around 10 above until the end of the week. I'm guessing that also won't be cold enough to completely seal off the lake. 

Another blast of Arctic air is due next weekend, and that'll bring daytime highs back down to the single numbers and overnight lows well below zero.

We'll see whether that will be enough to finally freeze over the lake for the first time since 2019. 

 

Quick Wednesday Evening Vermont Weather Update, Squalls, Then Very Cold, Then More Snow?

Snow squalls like this one approaching St. Albans,
Vermont in February, 2022 are possible Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Note in the background
the sudden transition from 
nothing to torrential snowfall.

Since the weather is getting very exciting once again, I figure some more frequent updates should be in the cards here. 

There's a series of things we need to look out for here in Vermont over the next few days:  

Scattered snow squalls tomorrow and Friday, bitter cold Friday night into Sunday at least, and then effects from that giant southern and central U.S. storm. 

THIS EVENING

Some light snow is working its way northeastward through the state this evening. It won't last long, but the expected inch or less of snow will be just enough to make the roads iffy tonight. 

SNOW SQUALLS

Quite a few snow showers and some snow squalls are on the agenda for both tomorrow and Friday afternoon and evening. It's impossible know when and where the squalls might hit this far in advance.

Just be ready for fast changing conditions on the roads if you're out and about tomorrow afternoon and evening, and Friday afternoon and evening. One minute you're in clear air on a dry highway, next minute you're in a whiteout on icy roads. 

It won't hurt to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service. If your area goes under one, it's probably best to postpone travel until the snow squall passes.

Each day, the snow showers will deposit an inch or less of snow on most of us. The heaviest squalls might leave up to two inches, and the Green Mountains could get a two day total of 2 to 5 inches.

BITTER COLD

The National Weather Service has issued an extreme cold watch from Friday evening until Saturday afternoon. We'll see rapidly falling temperatures to below zero with gusty northwest winds. Wind chills could reach 30 below. It would probably be best to reschedule outdoor activities during that period.

It'll remain at or below zero Friday night through at least late morning Sunday. The extreme cold watch expires Saturday afternoon because winds will turn light.

MORE SNOW?

A lot of the computer models are insisting on bringing some snow from that expected vast winter storm in the southern, central and eastern United States up into Vermont. 

I'll have a complete update tomorrow morning. 

Friday Evening Update: A Little Extra Snow In Vermont Forecast, Especially South

National Weather Service has ticked up expected
amounts of snow late tonight through early Sunday
morning, especially in southern Vermont. 

Just want to post a quick Friday evening update to note an uptick in expected snow amounts late tonight and Saturday. 

Most of northern Vermont is still expecting just light snow showers and periods of light snow starting late tonight and going into tomorrow evening. 

Total amounts in the north have ticked up a bit, but will still be an inconsequential one to three inches in most spots. Of course the central and northern Green Mountains will see more than that. 

The problem is in southern Vermont. It turns out a fairly dynamic but somewhat moisture-starved system  might have a little bit more moisture than first thought.  

So, Rutland, Bennington and Windham counties are now under a winter weather advisory starting around midnight-ish tonight and going until tomorrow evening. 

Most places in this area can expect three to six inches of snow, except maybe closer to two inches in far northwestern Rutland County. 

Southern Vermont ski areas, which have looked longingly at the northern Green getting dumped on, really want to see some big snows. They won't get a blizzard, but the National Weather Service is going for four to eight inches in the Green Mountains from about Killington south. 

So, pretty good!

The snow will never come down all that hard, but maybe moderately at times in the mountains. 

Temperatures should get into the low 30s in southern Vermont valleys and Champlain Valley tomorrow, so the snow there will be kind of on the wet side. 

You might encounter some slippery road conditions anywhere in the Green Mountain State between the hours before dawn tomorrow and later Saturday night.  Captain Obvious tells me the worst roads will probably be in the southern Green Mountains, which will see the heaviest snow. 

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Still A Mess; Trends Slightly Warmer

The air might be a little warmer with this storm than
forecasters were thinking this morning, so snow
totals were cut back a bit overnight. This map
only covers through 1 p.m. Sunday. More snow
should add to the totals Sunday night. 

 After a long trend toward colder and colder forecasts for tonight storm in Vermont and surrounding  areas, the latest forecast has more or less bumped up temperatures by a degree or two. 

This means some of the broader, warmer valleys might see more rain than anything else. In those places, says the National Weather Service, it could start of as rain this evening, maybe get cold enough for  some mixed precipitation for a while, the perhaps going back to rain, before things taper off Sunday morning. 

Colder areas, like mid and high elevations and the Northeast Kingdom, are more likely to see more snow and not so much rain. But it will still probably turn into mixed precipitation even there. 

The National Weather Service has cut back overnight snow totals in the Northeast Kingdom down to one to as much as five inches. The broader Champlain Valley could see an inch of snow perhaps less, because of the anticipated mix with rain. Most areas south of Route 4 should see little or even no snow in the warmer spots, like Bennington. 

Freezing rain is still in the card for many areas. The most likely areas for freezing rain continue to be in the southern Green Mountains, southern Adirondacks and the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. 

Those three areas areas are still under winter weather advisories overnight. The amount of ice accumulation has been cut back slightly to a tenth of an inch or less in the places under the winter advisory. 

That means we won't have trouble with power lines and trees, but the roads will surely be scary. Don't drive overnight if you don't have to. 

Anywhere in Vermont, roads will be iffy overnight Just keep that in mind if you want to go out partying or something.

There's still a really high bust potential with this forecast. Don't be surprised if you end up surprised one way or another by tomorrow morning,  

Temperatures will tend to start falling Sunday afternoon as the winds begin to pick up. Snow showers will start re-blossom as well. At least in northern Vermont and the mountains. Northern and central Vermont look like they might pick up two to four inches of snow from this second phase, mostly Sunday night. 

The central and southern Champlain Valley, and the low lands of southern Vermont will pretty much miss out on the Sunday night snow. 

On the other hand some of the central and northern Green Mountains could do really well. Between this evening and Monday, those areas could receive six or more inches of snow.  

A Brief New Year's Eve Early Eveing Vermont Forecast

Updated National Weather Service snow accumulation
map for tonight and early tomorrow. Most of us get
two or three windblown inches. More than that in
the mountains, a little less in the immediate
Champlain Valley. Roads iffy most of overnight. 

Darkness has fallen as of 5 p.m. as we ride out the last few hours of 2025. 

There's been minor updates to the weather forecast for our celebrations, but the overall prediction remains the same as I outlined this morning. 

As we go through the evening, there will be a rising chance of light snow as what is now a small storm develops over western New York and then drifts over northern Vermont overnight and into the wee hours of tomorrow. 

Southern Vermont, especially Bennington County, is in a position in relation to the storm to have better moisture and dynamics in the atmosphere than other sections of Vermont. 

So in the southwest corner of the state, we've got a winter weather advisory overnight for three to six inches of snow. The higher amounts will fall in the southern Green Mountains. 

Winds will pick up overnight and into the morning. That sets the stage for blowing snow. It'll be a light and fluffy snow, which blows around easily. It'll also be falling on a hard crust of snow, thanks to the freezing rain we had the other day. 

That solid crust means there won't be much friction to keep the new snow in place when the wind blows. We'll end up with more visibility problems and snow drifts than usual from a snowfall this size.

On the roads, it won't be the end of the world as far as their conditions. But it's cold enough so the snow will stick, and conditions will get slick pretty much statewide. Add in the risk of the occasional New Year's Eve drunk driver and it gets a little more dangerous. If you're out partying tonight, drive defensively, slowly and sober tonight, folks!

Aside from the Green Mountain mountain chain and parts of southern Vermont, most of us should still expect two or three inches of snow by the time it mostly stops by the time you're having your Bloody Marys late in the morning tomorrow.  There might only be one to two inches in the immediate Champlain Valley and parts of the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The ski areas should get a decent four to six inches of new snow, with locally higher amounts. Good luck measuring the damn snow, since it will be blowing around so much. 

Which leads us to the other problem. The cold. High temperatures New Year's Day will hit just after midnight tonight, when you're all out there screaming in the New Year. Those temperatures will be in the 20s at midnight, then fall through the teens into the single numbers by tomorrow evening. 

Winds gusting in the 25 to 35 mph range will keep wind chills below zero all day.  It'll stay cold until our next desperate chance of warmup of sort by around next Tuesday.