Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Yes, It Will Snow In Vermont Later Today. How Much Is Still A Question

Yup! Another NWS snow prediction map. Valleys
should get very littl e snow this afternoon, but 
the mountains and Northeast Kingdom could get
a few inches of new snow.

UPDATE:  Rain was already starting to change to snow in St. Albans, Vernont as of 9:50 a.m. The earlier changeover might mean more snow than forecast. I'm not sure on that, stay tuned!!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

If you got up early this Sunday morning, you enjoyed the last vestiges of the warm weather we just experienced. The high temperature today in Burlington looks like it was 61 degrees not long after midnight. 

It was still 57 degrees at 5 a.m. just before the cold front arrived. By 8 a.m. it was 48 degrees and rain was falling. 

Before we go on with the very bad weather news, let's reminisce briefly about Saturday. 

Southeast winds flowing down the slopes of the western Green Mountains often warm up a lot as they do so. Yesterday was no exception, allowing Burlington to get up to 76 degrees with the rest of the Champlain Valley experiencing similar temperatures. 

The rest of Vermont was in the 60s. The warmth and sunshine made for a gorgeous spring Saturday. 

Now for the depressing part. The snow, and the intense cold might do a number on some garden plants, depending exactly how cold it gets.  Here are the details

TODAY: 

The cold front is slowing down as it moves through Vermont and New Hampshire. That's allowing moisture to flow northward behind the front, ensuring a fair amount of precipitation all day. Notice I didn't just say rain.

Sure, a lot of this will be rain. But as temperatures fall into the 30s by afternoon, the rain will mix with and change to snow in many areas.   We're still struggling with how much snow we'll get.

Officially the National Weather Service forecast calls for a trace to an inch in most valleys, ranging up to four to seven inches on mountain summits. 

Most of us have removed our snow tires, so just a note that traveling could get tricky during the heaviest snow, especially in higher elevations. The ground is warm, so most of the snow will stick to grassy surfaces and  not roads. But the snow could be heavy enough in spots to make the roads slushy.

I'm also going to throw out a very slight chance of an unpleasant surprise. The kind of April surprise I'll describe has happened in the past, so it's possible.  Again, not likely, but it's a slight chance worst case scenario

The National Weather Service has a 10 percent chance that the snow could get really aggressive. Under this scenario, Burlington gets three inches of snow. St. Albans four inches, Montpelier 5 and Island Pond 9. 

The weather front now passing through is set up in a similar fashion to the big April snowstorms of 1983 and 2000. But there seems to be less cold air available than in those two occasions, which makes a big dump of snow today much less likely. 

Any snow might go back to a light rain for a time in the valleys as precipitation tapers off later today. 

TONIGHT

The only thing coming out of the sky tonight will be scattered light snow showers. The mountains could pick up another inch but everybody else will see no more than a dusting.  Especially for those of you with summer tires, some of the water out there on pavement could freeze, making for some icy patches. Yes, I know that's obnoxious for the third week in April.

Even worse, a reinforcing shot of cold air might rejuvenate the snow showers a bit toward morning.

MONDAY

Enjoy your spring blooms while you can. There's a good
chance that lows from 15-25 degrees Monday night
could destroy them. 

Monday will bring a throwback to mid-March. Stiff northwest winds will hold temperatures all day in the 30s to near 40. A few of the warmer valleys south could make it to the mid-40s.

Scattered  morning snow showers in northern and central valleys will tend to fade by midday but could continue in the afternoon across the Green Mountains. In other words, it will be a typical mid-March day. 

It'll be a good day to cut any flowers you have blooming and bring them inside to enjoy because.....

MONDAY NIGHT

Skies will clear and winds will go calm.  "High" temperatures are going to be so low on Monday it won't be much of a journey to get below freezing. And it will get far below freezing by dawn Tuesday. 

As of this morning, the National Weather Service is going for a low early Tuesday morning of 23 degrees in Burlington, 20 in Montpelier, 21 in Rutland and 17 in St. Johnsbury. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks of New York could each 14 or 15 degrees. 

These aren't quite record lows, but are quite frigid for the third week in April.

As I've mentioned before, climate change has created earlier springs. Also more volatile ones. So, spring trees, plants and flowers bloom prematurely, only to get zapped by a freeze. 

Decades ago, a freeze of this magnitude during the third week of April would have been no big deal because plants would not have progressed far enough along to be damaged.   It's not every year in the recent past we've had damaging late freezes, but it's been frequent. I'm thinking late April, 2021 and especially May, 2023 as examples. We're going to add April, 2026 to this list 

Early spring blooms are tough and there will be survivors this time. But we won't know for weeks whether lilacs and other plants that are still budding but not quite blooming received damage or not. I know that daffodil blooms get wrecked at temperatures under 25 degrees. And depending on how far along lilac buds are, they have a good chance of turning brown and ugly too.

So this whole thing is just a depressing mess. The only hope is if we unexpectedly get increasing clouds or wind Monday night to hold temperatures a little higher.

BEYOND THE COLD WAVE

As we likely survey the wreckage of our gardens later this week, the weather, almost cruelly, will turn very, very normal.  Tuesday will still be quite cool, but the rest of the week will be pretty average, with highs i the 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s to around 40.  It looks like there will be very little rain during this period. And more importantly, no snow!

April Snow Over-Performed In Vermont Today, Oddly Frigid Night Tonight Before Spring Returns

Back to the middle of winter early this evening in 
St. Albans, Vermont after a day-long snowfall. Small
dark splotches on ground in foreground are 
daffodil shoots coming up. 

As expected, it was a snowy one in much of Vermont today. It seemed the most persistent snow was over the Champlain Valley and the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Had this snow come through at night, several areas in the Champlain Valley and elsewhere in northern as Vermont would have had perhaps two to five inches of snow.  

Almost all the snow today hit during daylight hours. Though it was below freezing out there when it was snowing, enough heat came through the clouds from the high angled April sun that some of the snow melted as more while was falling from the sky. 

If you measured on pavement or bare ground, there was little if any snow, because of that solar radiation. This was good, because main roads, especially in low elevations, stayed pretty much just wet. Roads today weren't as bad as they could have been, but I did see some slick spots out there.

On grassy services and elevated decks, the snow piled up. On Facebook, people in such disparate places in Vermont as Milton and Jamaica reported to the National Weather Service they had two or three inches of fresh snow on their decks. 

Still, this snow turned out to be a bit on an over-performer, especially for this time of year.  Some mid and high elevations really got some serious accumulation. Walden, Vermont reports 4.9 inches of new snow. About 3.5 inches of new snow graced Camels Hump State Park. 

Here in St. Albans, I measured 1.4 inches of new snow on my deck as of 6 p.m. It was still snowing a little at the time, but it was tapering off and I don't anticipate much additional accumulation. Either here or anywhere else in Vermont. 

In Burlington, the National Weather Service reported 1.6 inches of new snow so far today. That's nowhere near the record, because a large snowstorm hit on this date in 1974, dumping 7.3 inches of snow on Burlington. 

We escaped anything like that, so I guess we were lucky, but it still looks like the middle of winter out there. At least in the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. 

Southern Vermont got their inch or so of snow early this morning, and ended up getting very little during the day. I noticed areas east of the Green Mountains south of Route 2 appear to have gotten little or no snow, too.

 TONIGHT

Now, there's snow on the ground in most of northern Vermont and New York, It's really unlikely to melt before sunset. Satellite imagery early this evening showed the disturbance causing the snow is moving out and clearing skies were moving in from the north and west. 

Those skies should be pretty clear by a few hours after sunset. Winds will go light and variable, so the stag is set for one of the coldest April nights in a decade, or more than a generation, depending on how things work out. 

The last time Burlington had an April temperature as cold or colder than what's anticipated tonight was in 2016 when it hit 14 degrees.  The last time it was colder than that was 10 degrees in April, 1995. 

It doesn't look like much snow accumulated around Montpelier today, but they still have an excellent shot of reaching a record low of 14 by morning. 

I'll  have updates, of course, tomorrow morning. 

 

We're Now In What Might Well Be The Last True Winter Cold Spell Of The Season

Interesting radar image from yesterday as light rain
covered most of the area. The "hole" in the rain near
and south of Burlington lingered for hours. Moisture
coming in from the west was blocked by the Adirondacks.
leaving a dry spot in the Champlain Valley.

As we expected, the spring warmth of yesterday is gone and t's cold here once again in Vermont.

The transition to the colder weather started out unevenly yesterday and created some sort of interesting moments. 

There was actually two cold fronts. The first originated as a warm front that stalled over southern Quebec It worked its way back southward as a cold front during Thursday afternoon and abruptly ended the brief warm spell in the far north. 

In Highgate, a temperature of 56 degrees at 12:30 p.m. Thursday was own to 45 by 2:30 p.m.. Elsewhere in northern and central Vermont, it took until very late afternoon or early evening to get much chillier. 

While all that was going on, whatever moisture there was came streaming in from the west. Nobody in central and northern Vermont got all that much rain, with amounts near a quarter inch, give or take.  

But if you looked at radar returns there was a "hole" near and south of Burlington most of the afternoon and evening were pretty much no rain was falling. The Adirondacks were blocking the moisture coming in. So rainfall dried up in the Champlain Valley, but resumed in the Green Mountains when the air was forced to rise up the slopes, wringing out a little rain. 

It looks like only far southern Vermont got substantial precipitation. Bennington reported a decent 0.61 inches.  

Overnight, the second and strongest cold front blasted through. even found evidence on my truck and the trees around my St. Albans home that we got a little bit of freezing rain late last night. 2Now it's temporarily winter again. 

LAST COLD SPELL?

As of 7 a.m. today, temperatures across Vermont were solidly below freezing except in the far south. Stiff north winds were holding wind chill in the teens. It won't get above freezing in most of the state today. 

Tonight will be down in the single number and low teens for the most part. Saturday stays below freezing, too, in much of Vermont. Saturday night will be cold, too, but not quite as bad as tonight. 

After that, fingers crossed, this might be the last truly wintry cold spell until, well next winter. There will still be frigid air lurking in central and northern Canada, but I don't think it will able to make any kind of strong push into our neck of the wood next week, or the week after. Then, by mid-April, it's usually too late to get wintry. 

Sure, it can get cold and snowy after mid-April, but not as if you're in the depths of winter cold and snowy. 

It looks like we'll have an active weather pattern, though, with frequent chances of April showers. It remains to be seen how much rain we'll actually get, as at this stage of the game, results vary when you look at the various forecasting models. 

Temperatures should recover from the cold spell by Sunday afternoon, as temperatures rise into the 40s. Readings will bounce around after that as warm and cold fronts sail through New England.  At this point, next Wednesday looks like the warmest day, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. A few models take us well into the 60s. We shall see!  

Storm Departs, Cold Air Arrives; Here In Vermont 60s To Snow In Three Hours

It looked nice enough out my window this morning, but
it was very blustery and cold. Traditional March winds
are back and they sure aren't warm. 

 For the second time in a week, today's a day in Vermont that on paper looks like it was a nice spring day. However, it was   anything but. 

Much like last Thursday, some parts of the Green Mountain State were in the 60s just after midnight this morning. That sure as hell didn't last long.

In Burlington it was 65 degrees at 1 a.mo So mid-60s will be the high temperature for today.. An hour later, it was 40 degrees. It's was snowing a little by 4 a.m. 

The only thing that hasn't changed is the wind speed.  A wind advisory still exists until 11 a.m. today for gusts out of the west as high as 50 mph. 

Nearly 12,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power at around 4 a.m., mostly due to the initial, stronger surges of wind with the cold front. As of 8 a.m., the number of those outages has been halved, so we're making progress. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

We've got a couple of really cold days for this time of year coming up. And we have no return to spring weather in the forecast - at least not for the next week to 10 days. Sorry to be such a gloomy Gus, but there you go. It's March in Vermont. Deal with it. 

It was still near 32 degrees across Vermont as of around 8 a.m. But those temperatures will stay steady or even slowly fall as we go through the day.  Those of us who got a thin scrim of snow from the cold front will get very little additional snow. However, some snow showers will roam the state, especially in the Green Mountains for the rest of today. 

Tonight, lows will drop to the upper single numbers to low teens, making it the coldest night since March. This is nowhere near record cold, but it's a chilly slap on the fast. 

Tomorrow won't be any warmer, but at least it won't be so windy. And it will be sunny.  A sunny 30-degree day in March feels better than a sunny 30-degree day at the end of December. A higher sun angle makes things feel a lot better.

The rest of the week into next week appears to be unsettled and chilly. We'll have a persistent northwest flow, with cooler than normal air and weak disturbances coming through pretty much every other ray with light rain an snow showers. 

This is the pattern we endured in much of the winter. We just can't seem to shake it for any longer than a week or so. I have no idea when it will end. At least normal temperatures are rising fast now, so it's getting harder and harder to get really cold.

Since we're getting into the second half of March, most days in this regime will get into the 30s to low 40s. That's better than the teens and low 20s for highs we had so often during the winter.

And someday, spring will get here.

Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.

The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

Winter Just Doesn't Want To Quit In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Our house in St. Albans, Vermont is awash in snow, and 
the gardens out front won't be blooming anytime 
soon judging from this scene taken this morning. 

Unlike many recent winters, it's the end of February and we do not yet have any real signs of spring here in Vermont or the rest of the Northeast. 

Even when an extended forecast offers a hint of warm weather a week or two out, that always seems to be snatched away at the last minute and it stays cold. 

Here in Vermont it snowed again this morning. Not much, just enough to be annoying. We has 0.4 inches here in St. Albans as of 8 a.m.  

Temperatures across Vermont were mostly in the teens as of 8 a.m. but the warm front causing this morning's snow should blow through, bringing many valleys to readings a little above freezing this afternoon. 

That "warmth" won't last long.

A cold front is coming toward us late this afternoon. If this were summer, I'd be yelling about the risk of severe thunderstorms. But it's winter, so the cold front will crank out a bunch of snow showers and a few snow squalls here and there. Those would be the winter substitute for strong thunderstorms.

We won't get much snow this evening, with  most of us getting another inch or less. But the rapidly changing weather and falling temperatures around those expected snow squalls mean you might see some unpleasant, icy surprises on the roads on the way home late this afternoon and evening. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

The cold front is a little stronger than we thought it would be (of course!) so they've subtracted a few degrees from previous forecasts. It'll only get into the 20s to around 30 tomorrow and it''ll be back down in the single numbers tomorrow night. 

After a chilly start, Friday will be nice enough in the afternoon with sunshine and temperatures in the 30s, with some upper 20s in high elevations and some corners of the Northeast Kingdom.

By the way, the blizzard zone near New York and far southern New England are getting an unwanted burst of a couple inches of snow this morning. They also might get nicked by a weak storm Thursday night, and possibly another few inches of snow next Monday.

I'll have an update on the areas hit by the blizzard in a post later today.

ARCTIC FRONT

It still looks like we have one warmish day, or maybe part of a warmish part of a day when we get to Saturday. By then, another cold front will be approaching us. Ahead of that front, we'll get a brief squirt of mild air that might get us into the 40s.

However, some of the models are speeding up an approaching Arctic cold front, so I wonder whether it will stay mild all day in the north. It's possible the mild air could get pushed out before the day is over on Saturday. We shall see!

What's definite, though, is behind this front is really cold air. March will start with frigid January weather. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees below normal. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the teens, with maybe a couple low 20s south. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday nights will get below zero again, like we haven't had enough of that already. 

It'll warm back up a little toward the middle of next week. Long range forecasts are suggesting a bonafide thaw once we get a week into March. I'm not trusting that forecast yet, since so many hints of warmth in extended forecasts disappeared as forecasts were updated.

Meanwhile, enjoyVermont's forever winter.  

Are Pennsylvania Ice Jams A Glimpse Of Vermont's Early Spring Future?

An ice jam in Swanton, Vermont after a rainy, warm
January thaw in 2018. This will be the first early
spring in a few years in which ice jams are
a real concern However, there's no
evidence that there's anything imminent. 

 Rain and a spring thaw in parts of Pennsylvania last week caused several potential dangerous ice jams.

Luckily, the Pennsylvania jams either broke up fast enough to prevent serious damage or hit in rural areas where there was little to damage. But those jams last week prompted some flash floods warnings and evacuations. 

It was a reminder, though, that a winter with lots of cold and snow can really create trouble when the spring thaw arrives in earnest. 

The same thing could happen here in Vermont later this spring. 

After a bitterly cold late January and early February. the weather abruptly turned in western Pennsylvania last Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms dumped bursts of heavy rain on that region last night. By noon Friday, Pittsburgh's temperature was up to 63 degrees. 

That kind of late winter weather is a recipe for ice jams. Thick ice on rivers broke up in that weather, and the chunks of ice got stuck on river beds, bridge abutments and other obstacles. 

 It has temporarily gotten colder in Pennsylvania, so the risk of ice jam floods has eased. But if there are still frozen waterways there or anywhere else, there's a risk of ice jam floods as we head toward spring.

"Anywhere else" includes here in Vermont.

Pennsylvania's experience makes me wonder what might happen in Vermont later this spring. Ice on the rivers is thicker than it's been in years. There's a fair amount of snow on the ground ready to melt.

No real thaws or heavy rain is in the forecast. But a little more snow is in the pipeline. Thankfully no big storms, though. The later we get into March without a thaw, the more likely the weather could change abruptly to something warm and rainy. Which would set us up for ice jams. 

As prepped as Vermont seems for ice jam floods, we have a more than decent chance of avoiding trouble. In Vermont's history, we've had winters that were much colder, much snowier and much icier than this one. After most of those winters, the spring melt was gradual enough to only give us the usual minor spring lowland flooding. 

I'm only bringing this up because this is the first winter we've had in awhile in which river ice has gotten thick enough to build strong ice jams if the weather is right for them. 

To avoid trouble, we'll want perfect sugaring weather. That means mild, thawing afternoon and chilly subfreezing nights with only light precipitation. Under those conditions, the snow and ice softens and  gradually melt. . 

If we have a sudden, rainy warmup later in March, and the ice jams do develop, we can still be just fine.

Much like in Pennsylvania, our ice chunks under this fast thaw scenario would get hung up on river bends and other obstacles. The ice jam would then create flooding just upstream fro where the stuck ice is.  

Where these ice jams set up would spell the difference between slight inconveniences and real trouble. The unlikely but worst case scenario would be an ice jam just downstream from Montpelier. That would back the water up into the downtown, like it did so devastatingly in 1992.

Since Montpelier is to some extent recovering from the even worse July, 2023 flood, we don't need that. 

Bottom line: Don't panic, since there's absolutely no reason to. Instead just be aware if we have a spell of warm, rainy weather coming up over the next month.  

Another Snowfall On The Way In A Relentless Vermont Winter

Latest snowfall prediction map for Friday's storm
Most of the snow will come in a hard thump
Friday afternoon and evening. Lighter snow
will come later Friday night and Saturday,
which is included in this prediction map

It hasn't come close to being the coldest winter on record in Vermont. It's not the snowiest one either. None of our winter storms have been especially huge or historic. 

But this winter has been relentless and long, with no real sign of a let up. Other parts of the United States have had tough weather, too, but most places haven't endured it for months like we have in northern New England.  

Some parts of Vermont established a snow cover around November 10 and the ground has been white since. WCAX reports that this year through February 18 has had the most consistent snowpack in Burlington since 2004. 

The snow will be on the ground for quite awhile yet, too.  Another snowstorm is coming Friday, and there might be more after that. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

This morning started cold once again, with temperatures in the single numbers and low teens. I notice Lake Eden, Vermont was at 2 below early today. Far southern Vermont, in places like Bennington and Brattleboro, stayed in the low 20s due to cloud cover. 

But, as last minute, adjusted forecasts late Wednesday afternoon indicated, those areas didn't get any snow, or if they did, it was just flurries.

The sun angle now is as high as it was around the third week in October. So when the sun is out, it can make a difference this time of year. Sure enough, temperatures should climb into the 30s, with maybe a couple upper 20s in the far northern Champlain Valley and near 40 in some southern Vermont valleys

But this will be a quick interlude until the next round of winter weather. 

FRIDAY

Like several storms we've seen this winter, we'll see a quick thump of pretty heavy snow, followed by a long period of light snow and flurries. Also, like many storms this winter, the timing will be atrocious. 

A storm heading into the Great Lakes will push a warm front toward us tomorrow. That will create a band of heavy snow that will push into Vermont during the afternoon. Most of the storm's expected accumulation will come during the first several hours of the storm, roughly from mid to late afternoon to late evening. 

This means it will arrive just in time for the Friday afternoon rush hour. 

Even worse, the snow will start out wet and heavy. It might even briefly mix with rain in the warmer valleys at the start.  Wet snow is often worse than powdery snow on the highway because car tires quickly compact wet snow into slippery ice. 

I'd suggest trying to work from home tomorrow if you can. And get your errands done before afternoon hits. 

The wet snow could also cause a few scattered power outages, but I don't believe this will be enough to cause widespread problems in that regard. 

The snow will turn much lighter and more powdery as it continues overnight Friday and into Saturday. During that time, the original storm will fade as a new storm takes shape near the New England coast. That storm will race eastward out to sea while strengthening 

The most snow will probably fall in the southern and central Green Mountains of Vermont and the east slopes of the Adirondacks of New York. In both those places,  a winter storm watch is up for an expected four to nine inches of snow.

The National Weather Service will probably issue a winter weather advisory for the rest of the region. Most of us will get three to seven inches of snow, if forecasts hold. All but one or two inches of that snow should fall in the first six or seven hours of the storm on Friday. 

AFTER THIS STORM

After the light snow tapers off Saturday, we have a period of seasonable late winter weather coming to Vermont. 

There's one literally big thing to watch out for, though. A powerful nor'easter will quickly form off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night and head to a position southeast of New England Monday.

As of this morning, computer models have been pushing the storm a little further northwest than previous forecasts suggested. It's beginning to look like the nor'easter  could bring coastal flooding, high winds and heavy precipitation to coastal New England. That is, if this northwest trend in the storm path continues .

If the current projected path of the storm pans out, southeast Vermont could see a little snow from this. 

There's plenty of time to watch this, so we'll update as necessary.

After that, the next chance of snow is next Wednesday. I don't see any signs of a huge warmup or major thaw for the next 10 days at least.  Your yard is going to be covered in snow for a long time yet. 

 

"Frost Quakes" Another Aspect Of Harsh Winter Of '26 Not Seen In Ages

Frost quakes rarely cause damage, but in this recent case
it caused a bulge underneath a Michigan  convenience
store that damaged some of the flooring.   

It's a frigid winter night, and all of a sudden you hear a boom and the house shakes.

An earthquake, right? 

No, not in the traditional sense. People in several places in the eastern United States in recent weeks have experienced what are known as frost quakes. 

The Associated Press explains what these things are: 

"These noises are known as frost quake for cryoseisms, a cold-weather phenomenon that occurs when rain or melted snow in the ground quickly freezes, expanding as it solidifies, when temperatures rapidly fall below freezing. As the ice expands, pressure builds around the surrounding soil, causing it to crash  and make booming sounds and light shaking." 

Frost quakes can damage water mains due the shifting ground. However, most winter water main breaks come because frost shifts the ground without shaking it or making noise. Or water freezes in the water main itself, causing it to burst. 

More ominously, on extremely rare occasions, shifts in the ground can cause gas leaks.

However, frost quakes almost never cause appreciable structural damage, but there was recently such a case.  

 A frost quake in st. Claire Shores, Michigan  was strong enough to cause damage. At a 7-11 store on 11 Mile Road in St. Claire Shores, surveillance video shows a ridge suddenly rising across the floor in the middle of the shop.  An eight-foot long section of floor tile inside the store was destroyed. 

When the deep cold of this winter hit states around the Ohio River Valley, frost quakes were heard and felt across much of  Tennessee and Kentucky.  It usually doesn't get cold enough long enough there to get frost quakes, but this year was different. 

Frost quakes have also been reported in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and other states this winter.

With a somewhat warmer weather pattern settling in now, more frost quakes are gotten less and less likely, unless you're in the relatively chilly air up near the Canadian border. 

Decent Thump Of Snow In Vermont/New England Later Today. Evening Commute To Snarl

Latest National Weather snow prediction map, covering
this morning through Thursday morning. Most of us
are in for 3 to 6 inches of snow, maybe more in the
mountains, a little less extreme southeast. 

 Our little Alberta Clipper storm coming into Vermont today looks like it might over-perform.

The National Weather Service is calling for a general three to six inch snowfall across the Green Mountain State and surrounding areas. 

Winter weather advisories are up for all of Vermont except the western parts of Addison and Rutland counties, where they might be just under the amount of snow needed to trigger the advisory. 

A tiny section of the immediate lower Connecticut Valley south of Springfield is also exempt from the advisory. 

It doesn't really matter, as it's going to snow everywhere in Vermont. Most of the snow will come down in a big thump late this afternoon and evening. 

THE DETAILS:

We're starting the day off cold once again, but not nearly as bad as it was 24 hours earlier. The coldest I could find in Vermont Monday morning was 29 below at East Haven. St. Johnsbury takes the prize for most dramatic warmup. The temperature there went from 20 below to 24 above within about 10 hours. That's a rise of 44 degrees, which is really impressive. 

Temperatures this morning were mostly back down in the single numbers above zero at dawn. An exception is Plattsburgh, New York that got to at least 4 below. Burlington was right at 0,  which was a bit chillier than many places around the region. 

An interesting thing happens when Lake Champlain is frozen or mostly so. Places like Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York stop being the warm spots in the region because we've lost the influence of the relatively warm water. It's now sealed under ice. 

Until the ice melts, the only way the Champlain Valley would be warmer than elsewhere only if there's south winds. The south winds funnel easily northward between the Adirondacks and Greens, ,so balmier air brought by the south winds reaches the valley first. 

The lake isn't going to help. In fact, as we head into late winter and spring, wind coming off the frozen lake, or very winter-chilled lake water once the ice breaks up, will make places along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain often much chillier than places further away. 

Basically, Lake Champlain has turned into a gigantic beer cooler. 

Anyway, back to today. 

THE STORM 

It's going to warm up nicely - at least by our standards - everywhere this afternoon as the snow approaches. We should get well into the 20s.  Any sun you see this morning will quickly fade behind clouds as our Alberta Clipper rapidly approaches. 

The best guess is the snow coming in from the west will reach Champlain by roughly 3 or 4 p.m. today and quickly cross the rest of the state in the hour or two after that. 

Once it arrives, the snow will go from flurries to heavy snow very, very quickly. Most of the storm's snow will come in the initial three to four hours of this episode. This evening's dump will probably go at a rate of an inch per hour,  which is pretty fast. 

That means, unfortunately, on your drive home from work or school late this afternoon and this evening, you're going to run into rapidly deteriorating road conditions, bad visibility and the maximum amount of idiots surrounding you since the 4-7 p.m. time frame will be the busiest on the roads.

Unfortunately, I have an important appointment in Burlington today at 3 p.m., which means I'm going to spend my entire evening parked on a snarled Interstate 89.  I'll wave to you if you're one of the hundreds or more people stuck with me. 

The snow will tend to lighten up later tonight, leaving behind a general three to five inches of new snow. If it's still snowing at dawn, it'll barely be flurries in many areas. 

But for some of us, anyway, that won't be the end of it.  The Alberta Clipper will tend to fade out somewhere near or over northern Vermont late tonight, to be replaced by a new storm that will crank up east of Maine.

That offshore storm will strengthen, creating winds from the east that will blow into Quebec, then southward over Vermont. The moist air will wring out additional snow, especially over much of western Vermont and the Green Mountains. Those areas can expect another one, two, maybe even three inches of additional snow over those areas.

As mentioned, the total snowfall from today through Wednesday evening, as mentioned, looks like it'll amount to three to six inches for most of us. 

The western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains will do the best in this episode with several ski resorts likely seeing eight, nine or even ten inches of total accumulation. The western slopes of New York's Adirondacks and the White Mountains over in New Hampshire should be just as deep in the snow by later tomorrow. 

This has been the best winter for skiing and riding in Vermont I've seen in years. We've never gotten any extreme snowstorms, but the conditions have been great most of the time really since mid-November. 

This will be a pretty fluffy snow, so I'm not worried about the weight of snow on trees and power lines. And we won't be trying to clear wet cement from our driveways tomorrow. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Finally! I'll be quiet and warmer for a few days at least. By "warmer" I don't exactly mean beach weather. Wednesday through Saturday should bring highs mostly in the mid and upper 20s and lows in the single numbers to low teens.

We have a shot at going above freezing on Sunday. If that happens, it would be the first time since January 22 we've cracked 32 degrees.

There also might be some sort of coastal storm toward Sunday and Monday. The computer models are still all over the place with this thing. Given the limited and conflicting information we have now, that storm could bring us in Vermont a snowfall, an ugly mix or absolutely nothing at all. As always, stay tuned! 

We Just Had Vermont's Coldest Night Of The Winter. Uphill From Here? Snow Looms, Too

The "Haze Cam" looking toward Juniper Island in 
Lake Champlain, showed wall to wall ice cover 
this morning. I'm guessing the whole lake
is now frozen after this morning's subzero cold

Congratulations, Vermonters!

Most of us, anyway, just endured the coldest morning in the winter of 2025-26. Unlike other parts of eastern U.S. we didn't break any record lows. 

And, scattered across the state, there were a few exceptions to the "coldest morning" designation. But you get the picture. 

As expected, areas that were able to stay clear with light winds cooled off the most. Burlington got to at least 12 below, making this the coldest morning since February 5, 2023. The winter of '23 was actually exceptionally warm, except for two brutal days early in February that year.

Lake Champlain was this close to freezing over completely yesterday.  There were just a few holes in the ice left just offshore of Port Kent, New York,  I guessing the lake is entirely frozen today. It sure looked like it is from the Haze Cams at the University of Vermont that are pointed at the lake. If the lake is 100 percent frozen, it's  the first time since March, 2019 that's happened.

Most places across Vermont were in the teens below zero this morning. Newport was at 19 below. Morrisville and St. Johnsbury got to at least 18 below. I saw a reports of 16 below out of Bennington and Rutland.

Across the pond in New York, perennial ice box Saranac Lake was at 26 below. Watertown, New York was 27 below, which is positively balmy compared to the minus 35 they endured there Sunday morning. 

There were some weird exceptions to the cold. Montpelier had a breeze until 7 a.m. So far, their low is an unremarkable 5 below. 

Springfield, snug in the Connecticut River valley, is sometimes colder than many other places in Vermont. But they were at 2 above zero with a light north breeze at 6 a.m.. But things can change rapidly in frigid mornings like this. Springfield's winds went calm, and they had fallen 7 degrees to minus 5 by 7 a.m. 

The warmest place in Vermont was probably the summit of Mount Mansfield, They were at 0 degrees at 6 a.m. The second morning of a cold snap, when high pressure is centered nearby, often creates an inversion. We've got that going this morning. A layer a few thousand feet over our valleys is relatively warm compared to what we've been dealing with in the valleys. 

Except for those "warm" spots this morning, I think there's a decent chance that this morning will turn out to be Vermont's coldest until next winter. No promises, though. 

TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY

A new snowfall map with two to six inches of new snow
expected for most of us between Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Heaviest snow Tuesday evening. 

That inversion will at least partly mix out today. With the sunshine, that'll allow us to get into the teens above zero. A 30 degree increase in temperature from dawn to mid-afternoon is pretty impressive, even if it won't exactly seem toasty warm once we get past noon.  

Tonight, temperatures should initially crash with clear skies and light winds. But changes are afoot. Overnight lows in the single digits to low teens below zero should hit by midnight, and then it will slowly start to get warmer. 

After that, we have some snow to talk about. We haven't had any absolutely tremendous historic winter storms this winter, at least not here in Vermont. (Other places certainly have).

But the timing of most of our mid-sized storms seems to be bad, and that looks like it might be the case on Tuesday. We've got an Alberta clipper coming at us from south-central Canada.

As it approaches, it will have a strong warm front attached to it. That warm front, which will never actually make it into or through Vermont, probably will still bring us a period of heavy snow just in time for Tuesday's evening commute. There's still time for the forecast to change a little, but that's the way it looks now.

The heavy snow will only last two or three hours in any given location, but for many of us, it will dump a quick two or three inches of snow in that timeframe. Slick roads and poor visibility could make the drive home on Tuesday unpleasant to say the least. 

After that initial big burst, some snow will linger overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Again, unless something changes, it looks like we can expect 2.5 to 5 inches of snow. Some places in the central and northern Green Mountains might end up with more than six inches. 

The second half of the week will settle into uneventful weather with average temperatures for this time of year. We're seeing signs temperatures could go a little above freezing over the weekend, more likely Sunday than Saturday. 

If it does get above freezing over the weekend, it will end the longest continuous streak of sub-32 degree air since the January 26 to February 21, 2015, when we had 27 consecutive subfreezing days.  Out of the last 141 years of record, subfreezing streaks lasting as long as the one we're in now have only happened 20 times, according to the National Weather Service.

So, yeah, this is an odd winter.

 

A Couple Reasonable Vermont Days, Then Gusty Icebox

EDITOR'S NOTE: I'm having emergency eye surgery today. I will be fine, but you'll notice I'm posting infrequently over the next few days. I apologize in advance for being MIA

Another view of frozen Lake Champlain on Monday 
Photo taken at St. Albans Bay. Although parts of the
lake are solidly frozen, other parts still have weak
and thin ice. Be careful out there! 

We in Vermont have a couple more days of reasonable weather before the bottom drops out again and we freeze our tushes off. 

It was nice and toasty Tuesday with highs again mostly in the 20s. Burlington reached a high temperature of 30, so it was the warmest day since January 22. 

By the way, if you're venturing out onto lakes, be careful.  The ice out there  can still be dicey, despite the recent cold weather. That's especially true on Lake Champlain, which still has some open water out in the middle. 

Vermont State Police said five skaters got stranded on Lake Champlain Tuesday near Charlotte when a section of ice they were on broke free and started to float away. 

The skaters were about 675 feet offshore of Charlotte, Vermont. Rescuers used an inflatable boat to cross 200 feet of open water to take the skaters one at a time back to stable ice. From there, the skaters were able to walk to shore. They're fine. 

But, it's a sign we shouldn't go too far out onto Lake Champlain. Let's just say don't walk from Burlington to Plattsburgh or anything stupid like that. 

FORECAST:

We've got just a minor cool down today and tomorrow, but nothing extreme. At least not yet. 

You'll want to be a bit careful driving to work or school this morning, especially in northern Vermont, as some snow showers are passing through.  

So far, the snow didn't look too heavy or particularly widespread on radar before dawn today.  I expect there might be a few slick spots on the roads, though. 

But it will pretty much clear out this afternoon. It'll be cooler than yesterday with highs near 20, which is still not bad for February. A tiny piece of Arctic air will sneak in Thursday night, dropping temperatures to near 0 again before we recover to the low 20s again Friday.

Then we get blasted by a strong cold front Friday night with a burst of snow, maybe amounting to an inch or two. By Saturday morning, temperatures will be in the single numbers and still falling.  Some of the colder places could fall below zero by late morning. 

It's going to be a frigid weekend, with lows below zero through Monday morning at least. Next Tuesday morning could be below zero as well. Those temperatures in single numbers during the day Saturday will repeat themselves Sunday 

Howling north winds will send wind chills far, far below zero, especially on Saturday. Sunday will have some north breezes, too,so the chill will be an issue then. But it probably won't be quite as bad as Saturday.  

The wind might finally die off Sunday night, which would drop our temperatures into the teens below zero in many areas.

One saving grace is that the Arctic cold this weekend won't be quite as intense as some earlier forecasts I saw. Also, the wind might also not be as strong or long-lasting as those earlier forecasts. Even so, it'll be a brutal weekend out there. 

We're hoping temperatures get close to normal again by midweek. And we're still banking on a weather pattern change that would put us up for at least several days after midweek in which temperatures will be near or even a tad above normal. It won't be springtime, but at least it might be tolerable! 

Lake Champlain Ice Watch: Not Entirely Frozen Yet!

Visible satellite photo of Vermont and surrounding areas
this afternoon. Clear skies allowed us to see the ice 
situation on Lake Champlain. The dark blue area is
where the lake is not frozen yet. 

 Nope, Lake Champlain is not completely frozen over yet. 

It got clear enough for visible satellite photos to give us a good view today.  As you can see in the photo here, there's a large blue patch in the middle of the lake. That's open water. 

The northern half of the lake is solidly frozen. It's been that way for days or weeks, depending on exactly where you are. The narrow, shallower southern end of the lake is frozen over, too.

If the lake completely freezes, it will probably be at least a few days before that happens. More ice will very likely get manufactured tonight, since temperatures are forecast to go slightly below zero. But a light breeze will also probably continue all night, so that might slow the process down. 

Temperatures will moderate into the low to mid 20s by day and single digits to around 10 above until the end of the week. I'm guessing that also won't be cold enough to completely seal off the lake. 

Another blast of Arctic air is due next weekend, and that'll bring daytime highs back down to the single numbers and overnight lows well below zero.

We'll see whether that will be enough to finally freeze over the lake for the first time since 2019. 

 

Let's Have A Little Sympathy For People Struggling In Winter Storm Zone. It Really Was That Bad. Here's Why

In this image from Live Storms Media, the ice on the ground
was so thick and stubborn that a man resorted to using
a circular saw to cut and pry the ice from his driveway, 
The ice within the storm, and the long deep freeze
after it, has made cleanup for the storm especially
difficult and tedious in many places in the
Midwest and eastern United States. 

I'm seeing on social media a lot of snickering about people in the South, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States not being able to handle the aftermath of the big winter storm last weekend. 

I'm also seeing a lot of frustration among people who live in cities hit by the storm because ice isn't cleared from streets and sidewalks. There's still huge snow mounds, and pathways in business districts are just excruciatingly narrow divots between piles of snow and ice.

The frustration is more than understandable. Who wants to deal with all that ice and snow and difficulty in getting around day after day? It can be downright dangerous. 

Much of the ire is directed at city officials. And in some cases, some town and city DPWs really dropped the ball with this storm. 

But overall, a couple aspects of this storm made the whole thing a long-lasting nightmare for millions of people who are not in Vermont or other parts of northern New England. 

Sure, up to 20 inches of snow fell on Vermont last Sunday and Monday. But this stuff was as light as feathers. We were able to clear all this stuff off our driveways and sidewalks without a problem. The snow was so filled with air that it settled a lot, Burlington, Vermont had 15.6 inches of snow in the storm. By Friday, the snow depth on the ground was down to eight inches.

Us northerns were smug about our snow clearing abilities, not understanding the difference between the fluff in Vermont and the cement-like crust of ice further south. 

In a broad zone from northern Texas and in Oklahoma all the way to the Mid-Atlantic States, the storm started as snow. Then a ton of sleet and freezing rain on top of it. 

Ever try to shovel three or four inches of sleet? You'd better be a bodybuilder if you try. Then throw in some freezing rain. The layers of snow and sleet get frozen into a solid, glacial mass that's almost impossible to hack away. 

The ice is so thick and stubborn in some places that a man in Lexington, Kentucky was seen using a circular saw in an attempt to cut and pry the ice from his driveway. 

South of the Great Lakes, northern New York and northern New England, snow and ice usually start to melt almost right after a winter storm ends. At least that's been the case in recent decades, as climate change has made extended periods of frigid weather increasingly rare,

But not impossible. The cold air has hung on relentlessly since that storm. A reinforcing shot of frigid air arrived yesterday, and will plunge temperatures to record lows in the Southeast tonight. 

Mississippi highways were still sheets of ice, with hundreds of stuck tractor trailers and other vehicles just sitting there. Cars were still sliding down hilly streets in Richmond, Virginia five days after the storm ended. 

In Washington DC, people are expected, under city ordinance, to clear the driveway in front of their homes within eight hours of daylight after a storm ends. Commercial properties face a $150 fine for not clear the walks and homeowners get $25 fines.

However, because the ice is so thick in DC, and it's been so cold, the city has temporarily suspended that rule. You still need to clear a path on the sidewalk, but if there's some snow and ice left that people can't hack away, the fines have been suspended for now. 

The temperature in Washington DC fell below freezing on January 23 and has been that way since. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing in DC at least through next Saturday, except for a couple brief excursion into the mid 30s Tuesday and Friday. This in a city where the normal high temperature this time of year is 44 degrees. 

Also, snow that has a lot of sleet in it, like what's in Washington DC has now, doesn't melt nearly as fast as just powdery snow. 

New York City residents are grumbling about the snow, too, even though the Big Apple got very little sleet. The headline in The Gothamist Saturday was "New Yorkers begin to lose hope as freeze sets in and snow turns gray."

Garbage bags are beginning to pile up atop the snowbanks because the sanitation department has been more focused on snow removal than garbage. At least for the moment. The problem in New York is the same as elsewhere: There's been no thaw to remove the snow and no above freezing temperatures are in the forecast.  

It won't get above freezing in New York until at least next Saturday, and probably beyond that. 

As we head into February, millions of people will remain locked up in the ice and snow for many more days. A thaw will hit eventually, but it seems like forever before we'll see it. 

The winter of '26 is tough in so many respects. And that includes the weather.  

Frigid Weather Drags On; Lakes Freezing Up

Screen grab from the WCAX Echo Center web cam from
this morning. There's a lot of ice on Lake Champlain now.
If you look carefully you can still see open water far offshore 

 It's frigid again today here in Vermont and through the rest of the eastern United States as the worst siege of winter weather in years, maybe decades rolls on with little sign of a break. 

A historic nor'easter and cold wave in the Southeast was just cranking up toward full speed this morning. 

Up here in Vermont, nothing exciting. Just unrelenting, tiring cold. 

LAKE CHAMPLAIN

Lake Champlain is rapidly freezing up. This week, the huge expanse of open water we saw at the start o the week is now a relatively small hole of open water way out in the middle. 

On Wednesday, the lake was pretty much frozen just to the Burlington breakwater, which is about 1,000 feet offshore. By Thursday, the ice went all the way out to Juniper Island, which is three miles offshore from Burlington.  

Shelburne Bay had some open water Wednesday. By Thursday the bay was entirely iced over. 

The cold weather yesterday and today obviously manufactured even more ice. Still, it will take awhile for the middle of the lake to freeze over because it's more exposed to the wind. Also, it's the deepest part of the lake, so relatively warmer water would upwell from below, which would at least delay a freeze over. 

WCAX noted that in all but one winter with a January weather like this year's the lake froze over completely if February's temperatures were below normal.

Spoiler: February's temperatures will be below normal as we see no real sign of a let up in the cold through the middle of the month. Sure, some days will be only a little cooler than average. But other days will be bitterly cold, at least as forecast look now.

It Lake Champlain entirely freezes over this winter, it would be the first time since 2019 that it's happened. The lake has only frozen over eight times since 2000. 

GREAT LAKES

The Great Lakes are freezing over, too, Lake Erie was 95 percent frozen as of yesterday. That will mostly shut down the lake effect snows in and south of Buffalo for the season. (Even when Lake Erie is frozen, some moisture gets through the ice, so there could still be some light lake effect in towns south Buffalo, like Dunkirk and Hamburg.

Lake Erie is much shallower than the other Great Lakes, which is why it freezes over so readily. 

Deep Lake Ontario had the least ice, but it was still 23 percent frozen over. About a quarter of both Lake Michigan and Lake Superior had iced over. A little more than half of Lake Huron was frozen.

The ice on those lakes will continue to expand, as no thaws are headed toward the Great Lakes. 

VERMONT FORECAST

No thaws are coming to Vermont, either. 

Oh sure, today will be hotter than yesterday. But not by much. The high temperature in Burlington yesterday was 7 degrees. The forecast high today is 12. After another subzero night tonight, Sunday's temperatures will be similar to today's 

Vermont is still set up for a "heat wave" this coming week. It now looks like every day for most places in the Green Mountain State should reach the low to mid 20s. Overnight lows will be within a few degrees either side of zero. That's just a little colder than average.

But signs point toward the deep chill returning by next weekend. Lo ng range forecast have us below zero again for at least a few days starting about a week from now.

Between now and next weekend, we'll have very little if any snow. Cold waves like this are dry, so it's hard to get any substantial snowfalls in this weather pattern.  

Oh, sure, we'll have some flurries from time to time, but it'll never amount to much. We had some flurries this morning. That was actually produced by moisture from all the way up in the Labrador Sea. The air flow has been coming from that direction overnight and this morning. 

Those flurries could continue here and there for the rest of the day.  

Vermont Frigid Weather To Go On Endlessly, But Nor'easter Will Be A Whiff

Sun began to poke through the trees this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont after some light snow earlier.
It will stay cold for the foreseeable future. 

 Yesterday was the day that this month officially turned colder than average. At least as measured in Burlington. 

A fairly warm start to the month meant temperatures overall were averaging above the 1990-2020 mean That is until the big cold wave hit last Friday. 

The Arctic air has been offsetting that warmth earlier in the month. So as of yesterday, Burlington was a fraction of a degree colder than that average for January. 

Today and the next two days will drive January's average to a level decidedly below average. And February looks like it will turn out to be a frigid month. 

At least yesterday "warmed" up. Burlington got up to 19 degrees, the hottest it's been since late afternoon last Friday. I hope you enjoyed yesterday's heat wave, because the temperature is plunging once again.

A weak disturbance is coming through today, which explains the patchy light snow parts of Vermont have been seeing this morning. It won't amount to much, with pretty much everybody getting less than an inch. Some places in southern Vermont won't get anything at all. 

NEW COLD WAVE

But everybody is going to share in the reinforced cold air. By "everybody" I mean all of us here in Vermont, and practically everyone east of the Mississippi River. 

The core of the cold air is still plunging almost due south, from Ontario, Canada today, to the Ohio Valley tomorrow,  then to the Southeast, in and around Georgia by Saturday. 

There's already been dozens of record low temperatures set over the past few days in the South. This push of frigid air will mean more record lows.

The air temperature of this blob of Arctic air isn't all that unusual as it passes through places like Marquette, Michigan and Gary, Indiana. Sure, it's much colder than normal for them, but the upper Midwest sees this kind of thing almost every winter. 

The fact that the air is plunging so far south, all the way to Florida, really, is what makes this special.  Northern and central Alabama and Georgia could see readings in the low to mid teens Friday and Saturday nights. That's not including the windchill. 

In Orlando, Florida, it could get as cold as the low 20s Saturday night. Usually, winds are pretty calm when Florida gets a freeze like this. But Orlando's winds could be howling up to 35 mph late Saturday and early Sunday. That'll bring wind chills into the single digits.

In Miami, actual temperatures will probably fall into the mid-30s. If Miami gets down to 36 degrees, it would be the coldest in 15 years. If it gets to 34, it'll be the coldest since 1989.

For us in Vermont, we're in the frigid-but-we've-seen-it-all-before crowd.

A cold weather advisory goes up for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley. this evening and lasts through late morning Friday. Wind chills should be in the 20 to 30 below range. In the Champlain Valley, wind chills should reach the teens.

Temperatures in the teens today will go well below zero tonight and rise only to the single numbers tomorrow around Vermont. It'll stay cold like that through Sunday, though highs Saturday and Sunday should be back up in the teens. That's not an impressive warmup, that's for sure. 

THE NOR'EASTER AND BEYOND 

The cold punch of air in the southeast will stir up that nor'easter we've been advertising for days. The nor'easter will get quite strong by early Sunday near the North Carolina coast. A winter storm watch is up for the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia, as they might get several inches of snow. 

The nor'easter still looks like it could brush far eastern New England, but Vermont still looks safe from the storm. We might get clouds and a stiff, cold north wind, but that's about it. 

It looks like we might get a break of sorts early next week, when high temperatures could rise into the low and mid 20s, and overnight lows would rise into the single numbers. Those figures are only a little colder than average.

But after that, signs point toward more Arctic air arriving and lasting quite a while. The only hope here is that forecasts that far out - a week from now - are often inaccurate.  In this case, I'd very much like to be wrong about the newly cold air later next week. 

Vermont Snowstorm Over, Deep Cold Settles In

 Getting a late start this morning, as I decided to sleep in. Sue me. 

The storm is over, but the snow remains on the roads
this morning. This traffic cam grab shows Willliston
Road in the Burlington area as it crosses over Interstate 89.
The Interstate looked pretty good, but other, secondary
roads statewide will continue to have snow 
and ice on them, possibly all week. 

Anyway, snow amounts ended up being pretty impressive from the storm that just departed. And the most impressive amounts weren't where they were supposed to be.

Southern Vermont was going  to be the big winner, with some spots expected to get up to two feet. But I had trouble finding anyone in the far south that had more than a foot. 

The big snows were in central and northern Vermont, where almost everybody except the far northern Champlain Valley had a foot or more of snow.   The biggest totals I saw were 21 inches in Roxbury, 20.5 inches in East Randolph, and 20 inches in Northfield, Moretown and Cavendish. 

"DRY" SNOW

The snow to water ratio in the snow was very low. It was quite a fluffy storm, I guess you could say. In that sense, it wasn't as impressive of a storm as it looked on paper. There have been storms with this much snow with a much greater water content than the snowfall we just got.

This snow is relatively easy to clear. Since there's so much air in it, you'll see the snow depth on the ground decline quite a bit, despite the fact there's nothing close to a thaw in the forecast. 

The snow will just settle as some of the air escapes from it. 

I am puzzled by data from the National Weather Service office in Burlington. According to them, there was 8.6 inches of snow in Burlington Monday for a storm total of 15.6 inches. 

That 8.6 inches of snow yesterday supposedly only amounted to 0.05 water equivalent. Either something is off, or maybe Burlington set some sort of record for "driest" snow. 

Most snowstorms have very roughly a 10 to one snow to water equivalent. In other words, ten inches of snow would equal an inch of rain. A storm like yesterday's with its fluffy snow I imagine would have a 20 to one or even 30 to one ratio. 

I would have expected 8.6 inches of snow to have at least a quarter inch of rain in it if not more. I messaged the National Weather Service office for an explanation.  They replied that they have an automated system that  collects snow and water measurements. When the snow is particularly light and fluffy, the automated systems has a hard time catching the snow, so it under-reports the amount of "water" that fell.

Actual human observers measure the snow, so that 8.6 inches that was measured is reliable.    

FRIGID WEATHER

When there's deep fresh snow, nights can get colder than they otherwise would be.

We saw that last night, as it was even colder than forecast. For instance, Burlington got down to minus 2. Montpelier and Middlebury were minus 7. 

If you like wearing Hawaiian shirts and flip flops outdoors, you've got a looonnnng wait before you can do it. 

It's going to stay colder than normal for the foreseeable future. 

We're still looking at highs in the teens all week and lows near or below zero. They've actually cut a couple degrees off of daily temperatures compared to previous forecasts. It looks especially cold around Friday, when highs might not get out of the single numbers and lows could be well below zero. 

It still looks like we'll have very little snow to add to what we got the past couple days. Some light snow showers might pass through today but they wont amount to much. 

Note that road conditions might not be great today.  It's so cold that our limited supply of salt is not doing a good job melting away any snow or black ice from the pavement. Traffic cams show Interstates 89 and 91 weren't too bad, as of 9 a.m. but some places still had snow in the passing lanes.

But between the cold and the salt shortage, assume local roads and streets will be snow covered, possibly icy and slippery. That problem, frankly could last most of the week in some spots. 

The computer models are still generating a strong nor'easter off the East Coast Sunday. The storm has the potential to cause real trouble right along the coast. But for us in Vermont, it still looks unlikely we'll get anything from it other than an increase in cold north winds.

We'll see if the forecasts take a northwestward shift like the last storm did, but so far, there's no signs of that happening. 

Remember how I've been telling you it looks like it will remain mostly quite cold until mid-February? It's beginning to look like that deep winter chill will go past that, possibly until the end of next month. 

We'll wait and see if that turns out to be accurate. But I hope you have money saved for your heating bills!