Wednesday Evening Update: Snow/Winter Blast Still On For April Fool's Day

 Here in Vermont, we had another warm spring day with temperatures this afternoon within a few degrees of 60.  

As I write this at 6 p.m. Wednesday, spring is just about now going to come to a crashing halt, at least for now.

The strong cold front that is part of the reason why much of Vermont and surrounding areas are in for an April Fool's Day snow was just coming into the Champlain Valley. 

That's a bit faster than projected, and it means it's going to stall out a little further to the east than forecasters thought this morning.

I'm not sure that's going to mean much of a difference in the forecast with this snow, other than to start it a little earlier than projected in some areas.  But some of the deepest moisture might be a little more to the east, or if not that, the atmosphere west could dry out a bit sooner. 

I'm guessing the bottom line is northern New York and northwestern Vermont will still get the same amount of snow as originally predicted - four to nine inches by the time it's all said and done.  East of the northern Greens, there might be a couple more inches more than expected, maybe in the two to six inch range?

Southeastern Vermont is still expected to get very little snow. 

The main storm is still expected to ride north along this front overnight and tomorrow. That puts us on the cold side of the storm. 

The rain with the cold front is mostly behind it. From my office window looking west toward the Adirondacks as of 6 p.m., I can now see the rain blurring away the mountains as the front pushes in.

It will abruptly turn colder behind the front. You'll feel it this evening as temperatures go immediately down into the 40s when the cold front comes through your location. . After that abrupt cooling, temperatures will ever so slowly fall from the low 40s through the 30s until it's cold enough to snow. 

That'll almost certainly be a few hours before dawn in New York State, and probably at or a little before sunrise across northwest Vermont. 

Especially for those west of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4, you might be in for an unpleasant commuting surprise. When you get up in the morning, it could still be raining where you are, but change the snow before you get in the car. 

Or, you'll travel west toward your destination and hit a quick changeover to wet snow.

This snow is part of a sharp, but brief cold wave affecting the eastern United States. A few record lows are possible in the Southeast, but these won't be the coldest temperatures on record for this time of year 

The problem is one we are increasingly having in a climate change spring season. It's been unusually warm for the most part over the past month so fruit trees and other crops in much of the South are way ahead of schedule. They're blooming and starting to set fruit in some cases.

This cold snap and freeze could cause some widespread and expensive agricultural losses.  We've had this type of situation frequently over the past decade, most notably in 2012 and 2017.

We're not as far along up with spring up here in Vermont, but still way ahead of schedule. It will be interesting, and perhaps sad, to see whether any early buds get nipped by this. 

The snow won't hurt them, but overnight temperatures in the upper teens to around 20 degrees Thursday and Friday nights could have an impact. 

We're still expecting a warmup starting Saturday and continuing into next week.

Crocus Crusher Snowstorm For Some Of Us Thursday

Latest snow forecasts from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington, Vermont. Areas in yellow
and orange could see more than six inches of snow
by Thursday night. 

It was a mild spring morning in much of Vermont today, with some areas holding near a balmy 50 degrees as dawn broke.   

No April Fool, though, some of us in northern Vermont and northern New York are still in for an April 1 crocus crusher snowstorm tomorrow

THE FORECAST

The overall forecast remains similar to what the meteorologists have been saying since yesterday.

A cold front will slowly come through from west to east later this afternoon and early evening. It'll stay mild, but cloudy ahead of it, with temperatures in the 50s. 

That's still pretty warm for this time of year. 

Once the front passes, you'll immediately notice the change in the air as temperatures drop and rain continues.  Overnight, as the chilly air deepens,  the cold rain will change to snow from west to east. 

Where the deepest snow accumulates depends on how fast cold air can work east. 

The rain/snow line at any given time during this thing overnight and Thursday morning could set up a little west or a little east of current forecasts, so that will determine the amount of snow any one place gets.

As of now, it looks like the northern and central Adirondacks look to be in the sweet spot for snow, with final accumulations of six to nine inches.  A winter storm warning is up for these areas. Higher elevations of the northern Green Mountains could see similar amounts as those in the Adirondacks.

The northern Champlain Valley is up for three to six inches of snow. Northwestern Vermont is under a winter weather advisory. Amounts taper off as you go south and east, so that the Connecticut Valley will probably get an inch, if that.  

Be aware that road conditions for the Thursday morning commute won't be good at all.  It's been awhile since we had a decent snowfall, so maybe you're out of practice driving in winter conditions. The Thursday afternoon trip might not be great either, but by then, the snow will falling more lightly. 

Where the heaviest snow falls, there could be some power outages, as the snow will be wet and heavy.

As always, the caveat: Results may vary. If forecasters are a little off one way or the other during the storm, some areas could get more, or less snow than current projections

COMPARING APRILS SNOWS

I'll emphasize this won't be the biggest April snowstorm on record. Not even close. 

Still, this is a classic April snowstorm set up, with a cold front stalls in New England, and develops a sort of backwards orientation running from northwest to southeast.  (Cold fronts are usually oriented from northeast to southwest. This is  called a "negative tilt," and really helps to bring in lots of water from Atlantic Ocean to dump on New England as rain and snow.

Two of the biggest April snowstorms on record in western Vermont had this setup. On April 16-17, 1983, a similar storm to the one this week deposited 15.3 inches of snow on Burlington.  Another storm with  similarities to the upcoming one dumped 14.3 inches on Burlington.

Though it bears repeating that Thursday's storm won't leave us with nearly that much snow as those historic snowfalls. 

These crocuses in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens will 
likely get smushed by the upcoming "crocus crusher" storm
but most early garden flowers should survive the 
snow and cold

In 1983 and 2000, the week after the storms continued with light, but accumulating snow to help keep the ground covered. Other than a few flurries, it won't keep snowing this time. Spring will return pretty fast. 

It will stay cold Friday, with high temperatures at or a little below freezing and overnight lows by Saturday morning in the upper teens to near 20.  

The only additional snow after this storm will be some light snow showers Friday, and perhaps a snow flurry or two Sunday morning. 

Those of us who receive a fair amount of snow will see it disappear pretty fast. It'll get into the mid-40s Saturday, near 50 Sunday and in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. 

AFTER EFFECTS

We could still use the precipitation, so the wetting will be good.  Most of Vermont is still regarded as in drought or abnormally dry, believe it or not.

There will be a fair amount of rain tonight before the changeover to snow, and of course that snow will melt into needed water. Overall it looks like many of us will get an inch of rain and melted snow, so that's not bad.

Of course, it still looks like it will be on the dry side for the next two weeks after this storm, so we'll still be short of precipitation.  We need several more soaking rains to erase the relative dryness for this time of year. 

For those of you who will get smacked by this snow, don't worry too much about it damaging spring. 

Many migrating birds that have returned north for the spring, only to encounter this snow.  They'll still find stuff to eat, but they won't have a much food or as much variety of fixins' for a few days. But they'll get through it fine.

As far as your garden goes, your crocuses and daffodils look delicate, but they'll survive.  I called this storm a crocus crusher, and some of these flowers will be smushed into the soil by all this snow, but some of them will survive to bloom after the snow melts.

Most daffodils aren't that far along yet, so they'll recover, too. Most of the very early season plants in your garden are built to withstand late season freezes. A few premature buds on shrubs and trees might get nipped by overnight lows near 20 during the snow and subsequent brief cold snap, but they too, should largely recover.  

Tuesday Evening Update: Yes, Winter Storm Still Targeting Parts of Vermont/New York

Betcha thought you wouldn't see the National Weather
Service's snow forecast map until next winter. 
Guess again! Winter storm watch late Wednesday night
and Thursday for northwestern Vermont and 
northern New York for 4-10 inches snow

 Just a quick update to the weather picture in Vermont and surrounding areas this evening, with a much bigger update coming tomorrow morning, as usual.  

No joke, a winter storm watch has been extended to cover northern Vermont outside the Connecticut Valley. 

It seems unbelievable, after yet another gorgeous spring afternoon today. It got up to 63 degrees in Burlington today - well above normal.

That cold front will slowly waltz in tomorrow, bringing rain initially. It'll spread west to east during the afternoon. The front will stall, and a storm will form along it and intensify, as I indicated this morning.

Where the front stalls or slows down will be key to where the heaviest snow sets up.  As of this evening, that's across all of northern New York and in Vermont north of Route 2 west of the Green Mountains.  Although the forecast could easily change, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with four to nine inches in the above mentioned areas of Vermont and five to 10 inches in New York. 

By the time it gets cold enough to snow in southern and eastern areas the storm will be pulling away, so there won't be that much snow to fall. 

On the bright side, unlike some Aprils snowstorms in our history, the snow won't stay on the ground long. Many April snowstorms are followed by up to a week of chilly temperatures to keep spring at bay.  

This time, after a cold, wintry Friday, it'll get well into the 40s to near 50 Saturday and Sunday afternoons, and in the 50s to near 60 the early part of next week. 

No Joke: April Fool's Snow On The Way

Will parts of Vermont receive an April Fool's Day gift like
this? Or will it be mostly rain. Mother Nature is being a
trickster and a return to winter might be at hand.

We've had so much springlike weather lately, you'd think winter is over. 

Ha! Jokes on you!  

After what will be another delightful day to day, and a warm first half of Wednesday, winter will make a triumphant return for many of us Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Apparently, there's already a winter storm watch in effect for the Adirondacks of New York

It's a little hard to get information this morning, since the National Weather Service web site was not working as of early today, so I'm piecing together things best I can without them. 

A cold front is working its way in from the west. Out ahead of it, warm south winds are taking over, erasing the relative chill we had yesterday and last night.  Despite some increasing high clouds, temperatures will get to 60 degrees or a little above that in all the valleys. 

Rain and showers will overspread Vermont tomorrow afternoon and evening, going basically from west to east. 

Sharply cold air will come in behind the front tomorrow night as a storm forms along the cold front and moves up along the East Coast into New England while strengthening.   

That will pump moisture back our way, and essentially we'll have a nor'easter on our hands.

It'll be a race between the cold air and the time the best moisture from storm finally departs to determine how much snow everyone will get. 

Generally speaking, the further north and west you go, the more snow will pile up.  That explains the winter storm watch in the Adirondacks. 

The rain/snow line will gradually work eastward early Thursday morning.  How fast and to what extent depends on the intensity of the cold air and how far inland the coastal storm goes.  A more westward storm track would spare most of Vermont from the heaviest snow.  More of us would get in on the action with a track more along or jus off the coast.

Chances are good it will be snowing in the Adirondacks by midnight or just a little after.  Before dawn, the snow will start working into northwestern Vermont, as current forecasts indicate.

At this point in Vermont, I'd say the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations west of the Connecticut River valley from about Killington north would see the most snow- a few to several inches.  Southeastern Vermont will probably get little if any snow out of this. 

This forecast will naturally change as we get closer to the event, so of course I'll update you in the coming days about any adjustments. For most of us, temperatures will be marginal, so there's a fine line between a heavy, wet snowstorm and mostly just a cold rain.  Where that line sets up over or near Vermont is going to be the big question.

Thursday's weather looks awful by the standards of this time of year. Heavier snow in the northwest will taper off to snow showers and gradually retreat to the mountains. But cold, strong north winds will continue as temperatures stay close to the freezing mark.

It'll stay cloudy, windy, raw and cold Thursday night and Friday, so the snow won't immediately melt away.  Plus, we'll endure additional light snow showers through Friday, especially north and mountains. Sometimes, April Fool's Day jokes linger painfully. 

Even so, for those of you who do get a fair amount of snow accumulation, it won't last all that long, at least in the valleys. A warm up will start Saturday, and by Sunday and Monday, daytime highs will be within a few degrees of 50 or so. 

Whether any part of Vermont gets mostly rain or mostly snow, we still need the moisture, badly. The last two storms under performed, at least in terms of rainfall. Heading into the spring, we want to build up more ground moisture to overcome last year's lingering drought. 

Most of us could get a good inch of rain or melted snow out of this which is good.  Especially since the water from the sky is probably going to get shut off again at least through mid-April.  After this storm, only weak systems with very light precipitation are expected for the next couple of weeks at least.

Nation Is Remarkably Windy Today, Including Here In Vermont

Gusty winds and a dusting of snow greeting us in 
St. Albans, Vermont this morning.  It's quite windy
today in vast areas of the nation, including here in Vermont.

For some reason, today is windy in more than half the nation. March winds indeed!  

Wind advisories and high wind warnings are up from The northern and central Rockies, almost the entire Great Plains, the western Great Lakes, New England and New York.

The remarkable thing about this is that none of these areas have actual gigantic storms battering them, like you usually do when there's high winds. 

WHY ITS GUSTY

All this wind is why you keep hearing about March winds.  Even when there's no particularly intense storms, the atmosphere is energetic this time of year.  Large high pressure systems come down from Canada, or drift eastward across the country. 

Meanwhile low pressure areas some of which, like today, don't have much moisture with them also cross the nation. The differences in pressure between these systems creates a lot of the wind.

The strengthening spring sun plays a role, too.  The higher sun angle has gotten more efficient at heating the ground than the weak winter sunlight would have. This warms the air near the surface, and since warm air is lighter than cold air, it rises. 

These updrafts displace colder air up above us.  Remember how I said that the atmosphere is energetic this time of year.  That means it's particularly windy several thousand feet overhead. The displaced colder air has to go somewhere, so it dives down toward the surface, grabbing some of those strong higher elevation winds and bringing them to the surface. You end up with a gusty day like today. 

PLAINS FIRES

In the Great Plains, the winds are dry and the ground is dry from drought.  In many areas, it's too early in the spring for things to green up with any modest rain the area has gotten. 

The result is a remarkably huge zone of high fire danger from Texas to North Dakota and beyond into the southern Canadian prairies.

Already, fast-moving rangeland fires in southern Alberta forced the evacuation of a small town and closed large stretches of highways.  

Lots of wind on the National Weather Service map today.
Brown and brownish orange areas are wind advisories
and high wind warnings. That big read area in the middle
of the country is a Red Flag Warming for wildfires due
in large part to expected high winds today. 

The same situation could easily befall areas of the Plains today. Everyone in those areas are being warned to be careful with any outdoor flames or sparks that can ignite fast moving fires.  

These fires can invade small towns and burn homes and businesses, like they did in Oklahoma in 2018 when two people died and dozens of buildings, including homes, were destroyed. 

NEW ENGLAND WIND

When I got up at 5:30 a.m. to take the dogs out to do their business, the woods behind my St. Albans house were roaring in strong northwest winds. Yes, it was snowing too.

Wind advisories and high wind warnings are up for much of New England. The advisories cover most of Vermont as winds are expected to gust as high as 55 mph today. 

Us Vermonters will see scattered tree damage and power outages today, as this windstorm is a little stronger than many we see when intensifying storms depart into the Canadian Maritimes, as is happening today.  Most of Vermont is under a wind advisory today. 

As the winds increased early this morning the Vermont power outages had already started to ramp up. At 4 p.m., there were practically no outages, but by 6 p.m., that increased to 900, and then to nearly 1,900 by 7:30 a.m. and rising fast, according to VTOutages.org.

The wind, if anything will probably get worse later this morning. Wrap around moisture was causing light snow in parts of Vermont early this morning, including here in St. Albans.

That moisture and snow will depart as the morning goes by, allowing some sun to peek through.  Remember what I said above about the sun's heat causing those updrafts and subsequent gusty downdrafts. 

That'll increase later this morning.  (Though the wind will taper off later this afternoon as the Canadian storm moves further away, diminishing the pressure contrast between that and high pressure moving in).

Northwest winds will gain momentum flowing down the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, so that's probably where the strongest winds will hit today.  But hang on to your hat everywhere in Vermont today. 

There's more wind in our future this week.

That disturbance helping create the strong winds today across the Plains will move east.  Warm south winds will take over Tuesday and Wednesday, but they won't be nearly as strong as today. 

Then that disturbance will consolidate and grab lots of Atlantic Ocean moisture as a new storm develops in New England. 

This will trigger another round of gusty north winds Thursday and Friday.  We're also looking  at the potential for accumulating snow late Wednesday night and Thursday, especially in the mountains.  Very cold weather with, yes, a lot of wind, is likely Friday before temperatures moderate some over the weekend 

 

Serious Flooding/Storms Continue In South. Here In Vermont, Active, Windy, Weather Whiplash

Severe flooding in Nashville and much of the rest of 
Tennessee as a rough spring weather pattern continues.

Dangerous weather struck parts of the nation again with tornadoes, severe flooding high winds and more as an active spring weather pattern continues to cause trouble for many of us. 

As if the United States had enough problems without continued bad weather. 

Here in Vermont, Friday's tornado notwithstanding, we don't have much super scary weather coming, but we can expect a lot of wind, some whiplash back and forth between seasons and possible a nasty April Fool's Day surprise. 

I'll get to more of the Green Mountain State outlook in a bit, but let's look at the ongoing weather issues, especially in the South. 

SOUTH HIT AGAIN

The storms yesterday and last night unleashed at least 16 tornadoes from Texas to Tennessee and unleashed the worst flooding around Nashville since the epic, catastrophic floods of May, 2010.

Nashville recorded seven inches of rain in 24 hours, flooding swaths of the city.  Emergency responders spend last night pulling dozens of people from flooded cars, homes and apartment buildings. At least one death has already been reported.

Video from Live Storms Media showed fast moving water in a Nashville area commercial area, including a Walmart that appeared to be badly flooded. 

The serious flooding extended across most of Tennessee and parts of eastern Kentucky, which was hit hard by flooding last month. 

The storms are forecast to move into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States today, bringing with them the risk of some tornadoes, and likely lots of severe thunderstorms with strong, damaging straight line winds. 

Meanwhile, a huge area from Washington State through the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and Nebraska are anticipating strong winds today.  Gusts will be in the 60 to 70 mph range.

Additionally, most of these areas are in drought.  Today's winds are dry and warm, so wildfires are a concern, especially in Montana and the Dakotas.

The national weather pattern looks like it will calm down somewhat after Thursday's storm departs New England, which will be a welcome break.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Today will be a pretty good stay inside kind of day as gusty winds and frequent rain showers breeze through.

This storm isn't super strong, but it's going to bring a fair amount of wind to the region, something we've had to get used to in recent week.  Winds have gusted past 30 mph in Burlington on 14 days so far this month, and it looks like we'll get a couple more.  

It's been so warm around my house in St. Albans, Vermont
that some of the daffodils are forming flower buds, the
earliest in the season I've ever seen them do that. Hope
they survive a brutal blast of winter at the end of the week!

South winds will channel up the Champlain Valley today, with gusts over 30 mph.  Downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains will gust over 40 mph. Winds are even stronger aloft, but a temperature inversion will help keep the strongest winds from reaching the surface. 

So despite somewhat above normal temperatures today, it will feel raw and stormy. The heaviest rain will probably come through along and just ahead of a cold front late this afternoon and evening.

As the departing storm strengthens over southeast Canada, northwest winds will really pick up, especially later tonight and the first half of Monday.  Wind advisories are up for much of Vermont.  In eastern Vermont, winds flowing down the slopes of the Green Mountains will pick up momentum, so gusts will be strongest there - up to 55 mph.

Expect a few issues with power lines and tree limbs down.

Colder air coming will change rain showers to snow showers overnight, and we could get a dusting here and there. Monday will be cold and blustery, with temperatures staying at or below 40 degrees.

On Tuesday and Wednesday - here goes the whiplash again - we'll abruptly turn warm again. Tuesday will be a spring beauty with sunshine and temperatures sneaking above 60 degrees again.

Wednesday will be just as warm, but showers will start to move in. 

Which introduces us to a wild card. 

A cold front will come through later Wednesday or Wednesday night, and a storm is expected to develop along the New England coast. 

Much colder air will be rushing in.  Will that cold air rush in fast enough to change the rain to snow before the air mass dries up? Or, will that coastal low bring deep moisture back inland, giving Vermont a surprise snowstorm on April Fool's Day. 

Right now, computer models seem to be all over the place between "No Big Deal" to "A Huge Dump of Snow.

What's somewhat more certain is we're likely going to see another quick shot of winter weather Friday, kind of like those brief shots we've seen all month during an otherwise warm March. And yes, we can expect another blast of strong winds from this one. 

Friday's high temperatures could end up staying entirely below freezing.  Very chilly for early April! 

Details On That Rare Vermont Tornado Friday, More Violent Storms Southern U.S. This Weekend

Funnel cloud over Middlebury, Vermont
as viewed from the Marble Works. An
EF-1 tornado is confirmed to have
touched down yesterday to the northeast
of downtown.

As I updated on this here blog thingy last night, the National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed that yes, a tornado DID touch down in Middlebury Friday. 

DETAILS:

The details on this tornado:

The tornado was only 75 yards wide and traveled just a mile and was probably on the ground for not much longer than five minutes.  

In the grand scheme of American tornadoes, this one was weak. Top winds, though, reached 110 mph and hit with destructive force. 

The tornado threw a barrel through the window of one house before doing its worse damage to a single family home on Painter Road. 

The garage was pulled off the house and thrown a few dozen feet down the driveway and destroyed.  A car was overturned and debris from the structure was thrown hundreds of yards. 

Before the tornado dissipated, it snapped off a bunch of pine trees at mid-trunk. This was clearly a dangerous storm.

Interestingly, after the big outbreak of tornadoes in the South Thursday, the Middlebury storm was the only tornado reported anywhere in the United States on Friday. 

VERMONT TORNADO COMPARISONS

As most of us Vermonters know, tornadoes are rare in Vermont.  We average roughly one every year. They're super rare this early in the season.  Tornadoes and their parent thunderstorms almost always need warm, humid air as one ingredient to sustain themselves. We actually had that yesterday, which again, is unusual in March. 

There was only one other March tornado recorded in Vermont. It hit Bennington County on March 22, 1955. That record is suspect as weather data from that day in Vermont and adjacent eastern New York show that rain and snow fell that day and temperatures stayed in the mid and upper 30s. That does not sound conducive toward tornadoes. I'm not buying it. 

Friday's Middlebury tornado, was obvious. 

By Vermont standards, Friday's storm in Middlebury was actually a fairly strong tornado. Most of the recorded twisters in the Green Mountain State were actually weaker than yesterday's storm.

Tornadoes are rated on a zero to five scale called the Enhanced Fujita scale or EF.  This was a high end EF-1, with top winds estimated at 110 mph. EF-1 tornadoes have winds of 86 to 110 mph and EF-2 twisters are 111-135 mph, so you can see we were close to EF-2 with this one. 

I could only find a record of one EF-3 tornado in Vermont h and no known EF-4s or EF-5s.   Even that EF-3 is suspect.  It was that strong when it was in New York on May 31, 1998, but I believe it had weakened to an EF-1 by the time it reached Bennington County. 

Two people were injured in the Middlebury tornado, but fortunately the injuries were relatively minor and not life-threatening.  Injures are exceedingly rare in Vermont tornadoes, because Green Mountain twisters tend to be so weak. 

In tornado databases, I could only find 10 injuries from tornadoes in Vermont since 1950 prior to Friday.  (Of those, seven were injured in a single tornado in St. Albans in August, 1970).

There are no known deaths for tornadoes in Vermont.  I'm certainly happy that zero Vermont tornado death toll stands after Friday! 

FORECAST AND RADAR

One takeaway from this tornado is how good some of the computer models are at picking up on tornado threats. On Wednesday, as WPTZ meteorologist Ben Frechette noted on Twitter, a tornado parameters model focused on the possibility of this happening in western Vermont, with a bullseye on Addison County, where Middlebury is.

The day before the storm, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center began advertising a very low, but not zero chance of tornadoes in and around Vermont.  

Two days before the Middlebury tornado, computer
models picked up on the possibility of a twister in
western Vermont, with a bullseye on Addison County.
This forecast proved amazingly accurate.

As the line of thunderstorms advanced across New York toward Vermont, you could see brief moments of rotation on radar images, but the threat from the storms was mostly from straight line winds. 

I'm not at all surprised - nor am I at all dismayed - that the National Weather Service in South Burlington did not issue a tornado warning in advance of the Middlebury twister. 

In this kind of set up, with quick spin ups on a squall line, the signs of a tornado on radar are fleeting - you get a quick hint of rotation, then it disappears. In just a moment, a tornado threat appears and disappears.  There's no chance to issue a tornado warning.

However, NWS South Burlington knew the thunderstorms were strong and potentially dangerous. Middlebury, and much of the Champlain Valley for that matter, was under a severe thunderstorm warning at the time. 

In retrospect - and this became apparent only after the brief tornado had touched down and then lifted - radar had what is known as a tornado debris signature, which is a fancy way of saying radar detected stuff that had been blown into the air by the tornado.

Other severe and damaging thunderstorms hit parts of the Champlain Valley and central Vermont Friday, toppling numerous trees and power lines.  There were signs of rotation in the storms near Montpelier, but there's no concrete evidence - at least not yet - of any tornadoes elsewhere in Vermont. 

Of course, I imagine some tornadoes go undetected in Vermont.  A weak, rain wrapped tornado that hits some forest with nobody nearby would almost surely go unnoticed. 

There's no  trend line that indicates tornadoes are getting any more common or rare in Vermont.  However, there has been an increase in the number of times Vermont is under conditions favorable for the formation of tornadoes. 

This is part of a national trend. In the United States,  there has been a tendency for tornado activity to move east over the years. They are more common in the eastern United States than they used to be. That's especially true in the Southeast, where Thursday's tornado outbreak caused so much destruction. And where new tornadoes are possible today and tomorrow.

Meanwhile, tornadoes are relatively less common in "tornado alley" - the Great Plains.  Scientists are studying why this eastward shift is occurring, but climate change probably has a hand in it.

With climate change, drier air is able to punch further east across the Plains. Meanwhile, even more warm and humid air flows northward off the Gulf of Mexico than previously. The clash of dry and warm air is one ingredient for tornadoes, and this pattern shift can also concentrate tornadoes further east than they once did. 

Possible Tornado In Middlebury, Vermont; Other Storm Damage In State

This house in Middlebury, Vermont was severely damaged
by a possible tornado Friday. Photo via Twitter from
Tyler Jankowski/WPTZ-TV News.

UPDATE

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had determined the storm in Middlebury was indeed a tornado.

The EF-1 tornado had top winds of 110 mph, traveled for one mile and was 75 yards wide.

I'll have more on this in tomorrow morning's post

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A tornado might have touched down in Middlebury, Vermont today.  Whether it was a tornado or not, there's reports of quite a lot of damage. 

The most extensive damage in Middlebury was around Painter Road.  

Photos from television station WPTZ show a collapsed garage with a car trapped beneath it, turned over on its side. The adjacent house had a wall torn off along with roof, window and siding damage. 

 Fire officials told WPTZ the house is uninhabitable. 

There are reports of at least two non-life-threatening injuries from this storm. Other houses in the neighborhood appeared in photos to have minor damage. Numerous trees and wires are down. 

Wood, insulation and other material from that most seriously damaged house were scattered hundreds of feet away.  Numerous trees were sheared off and some trees fell in opposing directions, which would suggest a tornado.  

Radar images of the Middlebury storm showed what appeared to be a tornado debris signature, a very good sign that this was, in fact a twister. 

However, we don't know for sure yet. As of late afternoon, I don't yet know whether the National Weather Service in South Burlington will head to Middlebury to investigate. If they go, NWS meteorologists will look at the damage patterns to help determine whether this was a tornado or straight line winds. 

According to the Tornado Project, if confirmed, this would only be the second March tornado on record. A twister caused damage in Bennington County on March 22, 1955. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, storms also caused damage, especially in central Vermont. Numerous trees and wires were down in Montpelier, East Montpelier, Plainfield, Waitsfield and other towns.  I'm guessing most of the damage was from straight line winds. I didn't happen to see any clear radar images of the storms. (I was busy at work).

However, a time lapse video of the storm taken by Charlie Hohn does show some rotation in the storm clouds over Montpelier. 

The severe storm threat in Vermont is over. Temperatures will be crashing down from the unseasonable warmth down to something close to average overnight. It'll get into the 30s, with maybe a dusting of snow in the mountains 

The next storm, Sunday and Sunday night, will not cause any severe thunderstorms or tornadoes in Vermont. That storm will probably case such severe weather in the South, but not here.

Instead, we'll just get rain, ending as a little snow, especially in the mountains, Sunday night. 

Southern Tornadoes, More Severe Weather; Here in Vermont, VERY Changeable, Windy

House destroyed by tornado in Alabama Thursday.
Photo by Butch Hill 

As expected, Thursday was a horrible, tragic day in the South, with so far five confirmed death from tornadoes. Videos at the bottom of this post. 

Tragic weather in the South, and active weather here in Vermont, for sure. As usual, we'll get into the Vermont weather in a bit, but we'll grab the national weather news of the day first:

SOUTHERN TORNADOES

As forecasters had feared, at least two of the tornadoes were intense, long lasting and fast moving. 

One tornado tracked from near Tuscaloosa to the Birmingham metro area early in the afternoon.  

Another large tornado raced across central and northeastern Alabama in the late afternoon and evening. Radar images showed this tornado hoisting debris into the air for a good hour as it plowed through the state. At least two supercells thunderstorms traveled at least 100 miles, with tornadoes on the ground for almost all of that distance.

The deaths included three members of one family in Ohatchee, Alabama, according to press reports

ABC33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama is reporting that Calhoun County Sheriff Matthew Wade is saying more fatalities are likely.  

Yesterday, I noted that the home of revered Alabama meteorologist and tornado expert James Spann was hit by a tornado.  His wife was home, but received her husband's tornado warning and went into a storm shelter the couple had installed to withstand the strongest tornadoes.

She's fine, and Spann later reported that damage to his home wasn't as bad as initially feared, and not as bad as some homes in the neighborhood, which were extensively damaged or destroyed. 

After learning his wife was safe, Spann returned to the air, and provided many more hours of storm coverage.

So far, there have been 24 reports of tornadoes.

The South is not out of the woods yet. A second storm is set to produce severe weather Saturday in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, especially Tennessee, and in the Southeast Sunday. 

After that, severe weather should go pretty quiet for a few days at least. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expect a LOT of changes in the weather for the next few days.  We will be roller-coastering, which is fairly typical for this time of year. 

Crocuses enjoying record warmth in my St. Albans,
Vermont yard on Thursday. 

Thursday was certainly one for the record books. Burlington had a high of 73 degrees, besting the old record for the date by five degrees. 

Plattsburgh, New York soared to an impressive 76 degrees, beating the old record for the date by a whopping 11 degrees.

Other places around here set high temperature records by wide margins. Montpelier reached 70 degrees, besting the old record by six degrees. St. Johnsbury got up to 69 degrees, shattering the old record of 57. 

Temperatures were remarkably warm for this time of year as dawn broke. Most of Vermont was in the 50s.

Although a flood watch remains in effect, rainfall has so far been a disappointment as of early this morning.

The first wave of rain that was due to come in has, as of 7 a.m., produced less than a tenth of an inch of rain in most of Vermont, although the far north has had a bit more.  A little more rain was coming through as I write this. 

We still have shots at more rain today, so it won't be as if we completely missed out on needed rain. 

The flood watch is out mostly due to runoff from snow in the mountains, aided and abetted by what rain we do get.  The upper reaches of the Missisquoi River up near North Troy are under a flood warning, as minor flooding has been noted up there.

Things are still looking pretty interesting this afternoon.  Ahead of a cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.  A few storms are forecast to become strong. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in a marginal risk for severe storms today.  That means there could be isolated damaging wind gusts. 

As I mentioned last evening, the Storm Prediction Center has a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in Vermont today. I'll stress that the chances of that happening are quite slim. If there's any localized damage from strong thunderstorm wind gusts this afternoon, it will almost certainly be from straight-line winds.

Speaking of wind, you'll notice over the next week or so it'll be frequently windy. Those March winds will close out the month and continue on into April. Behind the cold front this evening and tonight, strong northwest winds will drive in much colder air, but nothing weird for late March.

The winds later today and tonight could gust to 50 mph, especially in eastern Vermont, so a wind advisory is up for those areas. 

That new storm coming in Sunday will give us another slug of rain, and also perhaps some gusty south winds that day.  But at least it will be sort of mild for this time of year - low 50s. 

Then, as the storm strengthens near and northeast of Maine, we'll get another blast of northwest winds Sunday night and Monday.  We'll probably even see a little back-side snow out of this, but accumulations won't amount to much. Still, Monday will be raw.

Then, we go well above normal with temperatures again, going to 60 degrees or better by Wednesday. Then, another windy storm system, and back to March chill to open up April late next week. 

Tornado videos:

A twister roaring through Pelham, Alabama Thursday:

People in this truck were trying to drive to a tornado shelter when the tornado caught up with them. Very luckily, they're fine. But probably in the market for new underwear:

News report from the Eagle Point subdivision near Birmingham. Some substantial brick homes leveled, while houses next door are OK:

Quick Update: Alabama Tornado Outbreak Really Bad; Couple Updates For Us In Vermont, Too

This house collapsed during a tornado southeast of 
Birmingham, Alabama today. It's one of many homes
wrecked by an ongoing severe tornado outbreak.
Occupants of this house heard tornado warnings,
took shelter in the basement and were rescued.

 It's turning out to be a terrible day in Alabama, with many reports of large, damaging tornadoes. Some of them are hitting highly populated areas. Early forecasts turned out to be correct.  

Television station ABC33/40 in Birmingham has already confirmed three deaths from tornadoes in the town of Ohatchee.

 One tornado swept through subdivisions just southeast of Birmingham earlier this afternoon. By late afternoon, another confirmed tornado was tearing through northeastern part of Birmingham proper. 

The earlier tornado near Birmingham literally hit home for ABC33/40 meteorologist James Spann.  

Spann is one of the nation's leading experts on tornadoes and is beloved in Alabama.  His relentless, plain spoken broadcasts during tornadoes have saved many lives.

Spann was on the air describing the warnings as usual when he stepped off camera, having another meteorologist take over. He was soon back with this scary explanation:

"The reason I had to step out, we had major damage at my house......My wife is OK, but the tornado came right through there and it's not good, it's bad. It's bad."

With that, Spann went back to keeping up with the tornado warnings and alerting viewers to all the danger areas.  

As I write this at 6 p.m. Thursday evening, tornadoes are on going in and around Alabama and that is expected to continue through the evening. 

Details on what damage they are causing are still not in. But radar images suggest very large, intense, long lasting tornadoes. 

I'll certainly have an update in tomorrow morning's post. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

As expected, we experienced record high temperatures today.  That storm that's affecting the South is still headed our way.

The forecast for the morning part of the storm is still the same: We should get a few hours of moderate or even briefly heavy rain.  

Not something you ever see in March until now. NOAA's 
Storm Predicting Center has a very, very low, but not
zero chance of a brief tornado in and near Vermont
Friday afternoon.

Then there's a break while we wait for the afternoon cold front with this storm.  Next, we have an interesting twist. 

 NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of this evening has Vermont, eastern New York and extreme western New Hampshire under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. 

A marginal risk is the lowest level of five categories and means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. We have marginal risks relatively frequently in the summer, but it's rare in March.

But wait! There's more! 

The Storm Prediction Center also says that there is a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in Vermont. 

It's doubtful one will happen but you never know.  We do see those minimal risks for twisters once or twice a year in the late spring and summer. But I've never heard of this in March! 

The main threat from any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow will be isolated damaging wind gusts. Nothing widespread.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Dangerous Tornado Outbreak South; Record Warmth, Thunder, Flood Watch Here In Vermont

Area in pink is at the highest risk of tornadoes today some
strong and long lasting. Surrounding area in red is at 
almost as high a risk. 

A little over a week ago, Mississippi and Alabama experienced a relatively rare "high risk" day for tornadoes, which is the most dangerous situation you can get for predicted severe weather. 

The storm causing the danger in the South will affect Vermont, but of course not with tornadoes.

We expect record warmth, a good dose of rain, some wind, maybe some flooding, maybe some thunderstorms. More on that in a bit.

SOUTHERN TORNADOES

Although a total of 49 tornadoes caused a lot of destruction in mostly rural parts of Mississippi and Alabama on March 17, there were no fatalities. 

The worst storms missed the cities, and warnings in advance of the tornadoes were excellent. With all that, they dodged a bullet.

Will they today?

None of those March 17 tornadoes were at the upper end of the tornado strength scale.  The strongest tornadoes last week on a strength scale labeled EF that range from EF0 to EF5. The strongest tornadoes last week were at level EF2, with top winds of 135 mph. The vast majority of all tornadoes in the United States are at EF2 strength or less.  

There is, unfortunately, a good chance of very strong tornadoes today. This will hit in basically the same areas that were under the gun a week ago.  

Conditions almost couldn't be more perfect for intense, long lasting tornadoes, especially in the northern halves of Mississippi and Alabama and the western half of Tennessee.  This includes the cities of Tupelo, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville and Birmingham.

Stronger tornadoes in a worst case scenario can winds over 200 mph and level almost everything in their path.  Most tornadoes are on the ground for only a few minutes, but long-tracked tornadoes like the ones possible today could keep grinding their way through towns and countrysides for more than an hour or even several hours. 

Rotating supercell thunderstorms are expected to rapidly form in central Mississippi this afternoon and move northeast.  Humid air, a lot of instability and winds changing direction and speed with height along the path of these storms bodes poorly for this region. 

As was the case last time, many areas under the greatest threat have a high degree of poverty, so many people might not have the wherewithal to hear or act on warnings.  Substandard housing and a great many vulnerable mobile homes adds to the danger. 

The mess of tornadic storms will eventually congeal into a squall line that will head toward the Ohio Valley tonight with strong wind gusts and a few more possible tornadoes.

VERMONT IMPACTS

In the last southern tornado outbreak, the parent storm causing the havoc entirely missed us, keeping us dry. 

Not this time. As I've said before, it's excellent that we're getting a needed slug of rain, there are a few potential downsides. 

Before the storm, warm air is surging into our area. Temperatures were already in the 50s for many of us as dawn broke this morning. Despite some increasing clouds this afternoon, temperatures will be in record breaking territory this afternoon.  Several places will hit the low 70s. 

Records for the date are likely to be broken in Burlington, Montpelier and other cities and towns around the region.

The first wave of rain will come through within a few hours either side of dawn tomorrow. In Vermont especially, the rain will move off to the north and some breaks of sun are possible as temperatures go well into the 60s, and possibly near 70 again if there's enough sun.

That potential sunshine will make the air more unstable as the storm's cold front approaches. At this point there looks like a band of showers and early season thunderstorms will come through.  I suppose a few storms could have some gusty winds and even small hail, but it doesn't look like there will be anything severe.

It's awfully early in the season for that sort of thing anyway. 

The two bouts of rain, combined with the melting snow in the mountains, has prompted that flood watch for much of the region.  Many area rivers will end up near bankfull by Friday night or Saturday morning, with minor flooding possible along these rivers.  

It'll turn sharply colder Friday night with even some snowflakes in the air in places, but this won't be anything odd for March.

I won't get into that second storm expected Sunday and Monday in this post, but certainly expect some variable weather coming up with that system, and beyond. 

Yes, Vermont, We Have A Flood Watch In A Drought

Significant spring flooding near Cambridge, Vermont in 2011
Though nothing nearly this bad is anticipated, parts of the 
state could see minor flooding Friday and Saturday. 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has hoisted a flood watch for the northern half of Vermont, and Rutland County, along with northeastern New York. 

The flood watch runs from Friday morning to Saturday evening. 

I've been harping for days and even weeks that there's been a high fire danger in the dry brush around, and that a lingering drought or at least relatively dry conditions have continued since last year in the Green Mountain State.

All true, but what snow there is in the mountains is melting fast, and will actually start melting faster as the humidity in the air rises.  

We also expect near record highs near 70 degrees in the valleys tomorrow. Though the snow is gone in the valleys, highs in the 50s and 60s in the upper elevations should really attack remaining snow cover. 

After that, and more importantly, it's going to rain. Quite a bit. The upcoming storm is expected to dump an inch of rain, give or take. 

The combination of melting snow and the rain should be enough to get a lot of rivers up to or over flood stage. 

Some for instances: The Mad River at Moretown is expected to reach minor flood stage late Friday afternoon. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland is now forecast to be roughly a foot and a half over flood stage early Saturday morning. 

The Winooski River is predicted to get just a bit above flood state early Saturday. 

As always, results may vary depending upon how hard it rains. 

At this point, it looks like the rain will come in two waves. The first will come with a warm front Friday morning, followed by a sharp cold front Friday afternoon.  This cold front might have enough oomph to mix in some rumbles of thunder with the rain. 

On the bright side, this rain storm will put a dent in the precipitation deficit we have in Vermont and could help recharge groundwater somewhat. Overall, this storm looks like it will be more good than bad.

It's too soon to tell whether a second storm due Sunday will have any flood threat with it. 

Busy Few Weather Days Vermont And Elsewhere, Record Warmth, Storminess

A little more progress on the crocus front in my yard in 
St. Albans, Vermont after temperatures 
reached 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

 It looks like we'll need to bounce around a little today between focusing here on Vermont and also elsewhere in the nation to tie together a busy forecast.  

BALMY VERMONT

The temperature at Burlington, Vermont reached 70 degrees Wednesday, the first such reading of the year and one that came much earlier than normal.  On average, the first 70 is sometime later in April.

Since it was last 70 degrees on November 10, I thought that might be the shortest winter time period we'd spent under 70 degrees. I asked the National Weather Service in South Burlington and they very quickly responded, that nope, not really even close. 

Burlington tied for the eighth shortest stretch between 70 degree high temperatures. The high of 70 in Burlington was not a record high for the date, but other places around here set record highs Tuesday.

Montpelier reached 65 degrees Tuesday, breaking the record of 63 set in 1979 and 2012.  St. Johnsbury reached 68 degrees, breaking the old record of 63 from 2012. Plattsburgh, New York also managed a record high of 68 degrees. The old record for the date was 64 set on several years.

Early this morning, there was a remarkable temperature contrast across Vermont.  The air is still dry, so areas with clear skies and light winds had a chilly-ish start to the day. At 6 a.m., it was 28 in Montpelier, but just 35 miles to the west in Burlington, it was a balmy 54 degrees. Clouds and a south wind kept temperatures up in the Champlain Valley.

Temperatures will even out this afternoon, but not be quite as warm as yesterday. Still with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees, that's way above normal for this time of year. 

STORMINESS LOOMS

We've been anticipating a break from the very dry conditions we've experienced and it still looks like that's on the way.  A weak feature will probably spit out a few scattered light showers this afternoon an evening, but that won't really amount to anything. 

The real show starts Friday, but before that, we have more March heat to get through, more on that in a sec.

A storm is forecast to start winding up in eastern Texas and then move Northeast Thursday and Friday. A week ago, a tornado outbreak struck Mississippi and Alabama, but the twisters hit mostly rural and remote areas. That minimized damage and injuries somewhat, which was nice. 

This upcoming storm is forecast to create another tornado outbreak in the exact same area tomorrow. Will they be relatively lucky a second time? Let's hope!  

The parent storm that caused the tornadoes last week missed us here in Vermont, but this time, it won't. Instead of tornadoes, we'll get some needed rain.

Ahead of the storm, more warm air will surge up toward our neck of the woods, which would bring more near record high temperatures Thursday. We could make another run at 70 degrees again. 

Rain will come in Thursday night and go into Friday, and we might actually hear a rumble of thunder as it stays very mild Thursday night and a good part of Friday.  It might stay in the upper 50s overnight Thursday in the Champlain Valley, which isn't too far off from a normal July night. 

The storm might bring a period of gusty winds on Friday as well, so there might be a few isolated power problems. 

Even though we are technically dry, the rain and snowmelt from the mountains could bring some rivers to near bank full or even cause some local, minor flooding.

Another storm comes along Sunday and with more rain, and maybe some snow, as it will be cooler.  That system looks to be pretty dynamic, especially as it's forecast to blow up near the coast of Maine as it's getting ready to depart.

That's when some areas of Vermont, especially the mountains could get snow.  Winds will get pretty strong as well.  Sometimes, temperatures fall well below normal when this type of storm departs.  This time, there won't be a lot of cold air to grab onto, so by Monday, temperatures will only be slightly below normal -- perhaps near 40 degrees for highs. 

Gorgeous Vermont Continues But Needed Rain On The Horizon

Obligatory first flower bud photo of the season from my 
gardens in St. Albans, Vermont. I imagine this crocus
will bloom later today. 

Monday was the fourth crystal clear day in a row across Vermont.  I really has been pretty much four days since I've seen a cloud.  

As you know, these clear skies have been accompanied by some remarkable warmth, and we have a few more days of it to go through.

Burlington made it to 68 degrees Monday a record high but still the warmest day since November 11.  We still have a shot at perhaps making it to 70 degrees this week. We shall see.

Today's highs will be similar to Mondays with daytime temperatures well into the 60s.  Clouds might hold temperatures down to "only" around 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon which is still nearly 20 degrees above normal.

Another surge of mild air Thursday could get us to 70 degrees in spots. However, some clouds and higher humidity levels might prevent that. It'll be a close call. Dry air heats up in the sun faster than wet air. Still, record highs could be challenged on Thursday. 

On that day, the current record high is 68 degrees in Burlington and 64 in Montpelier. 

As we've stated previously, no outdoor burning this week, please, and be careful with sparks and fire.  We're way below normal with precipitation. Where the snow has melted away, the dead brush from last year is very dry, and you could set a brush or forest fire really easily through Thursday.

We need the rain. 

Luckily, chances are we're going to get it.  I know lots of us would love for this gorgeous spring weather to continue, but all good things much end.  This time, it will end with a dose of real medicine. 

Obligatory "the plants are coming up in my gardens"
photo for spring, 2021 in St. Albans, Vermont 

A vigorous storm - one that seems destined to produce more tornadoes Thursday in Mississippi and surround areas - is headed in our direction. 

We certainly don't have to worry about tornadoes up here in Vermont with this one. But odds are increasing it will bring a decent slug of rain through here Friday. 

At this point, it looks to be just a mid-sized storm, probably dumping a half inch to an inch of rain.  That's a solid storm, but nothing extreme. And helpful, since Vermont is still super dry and in many cases in drought. 

It'll cool off Friday night and through the weekend down to temperatures that are pretty close to normal for this time of year. 

A second storm on Sunday looks like it will produce even more rain, or in some cases mixed precipitation, or yes, maybe snow. There, I said the "S' word.

We'll have to look at now this will play out when the event gets closer.

 

In The Land Down Under, Extreme Floods Rage

A house floats away during the current extreme flooding
in Australia, one year after devastating fires

 Australia can't seem to catch a break with their summers and early autumns.  

Last year, it was some of the worst wildfires in the nation's history.  This year, it's extreme flooding. 

This is the worst flooding Australia has seen in at least five decades. More than 18,000 people have been evacuated in New South Wales because of the high water, and that figure is expected to rise.  An area the size of Alaska is being affected by the flooding. 

Already, hundreds of homes have been damaged or destroyed by flooding. Video on social media shows some homes floating downstream in bloated rivers. As is usual with such widespread disasters, there were tales of absolute heartbreak.

One house widely broadcast floating down a river belonged to a couple who were to be married the day the home was destroyed.  Their pet dog was trapped in the house and presumably died. 

Wildlife was fleeing the flooding, too. In some areas, houses and property were covered by probably millions of spiders fleeing the high water. 

This will probably get a lot worse, as downpours are forecast to continue for the next several days.  As noted, the flooding is an example of extreme weather whiplash. 

At this time last year, the areas hard hit from the flooding were recovering from extreme wildfires that burned 7 percent of New South Wales in late 2019 and early 2020. s burned in wildfires. 

Videos:

Overview of the flooding situation:

First half of this video shows that house floating away:

It wasn't just humans fleeing the Australian flooding.  Check out all these spiders!

Quick Vermont Update: Gorgeous Spring Weather Could Overachieve

A subfreezing overnight and a warm day got the maple sap
really flowing Sunday.  There's a maple sugaring operation
next door to my house, and this truck stopped by 
to collect the day's maple sap harvest. 

 I had a chance Sunday to do some yard work on my Saint Albans property.  Man, it was nice out, as any Vermonter knows.  

Temperatures across most valley locations in the state peaked in the low to mid 60s.  It was wall to wall sunshine and winds were light. 

The strong spring sun had me down to shorts and a t-shirt out there, and I still worked up a sweat.  I found myself seeking shade. Not that I'm complaining!

Another clear, warm day is coming today. Sure, it got coldish last night. Very dry air means days can get warmer, but with little moisture in the air to hold onto the heat, it gets cold fast.

Temperatures will still rocket upward into the 60s today.  The warmth is slightly exceeding earlier forecasts that called for temperatures in the mid and upper 50s, but we'll take it. 

The skies during the Wednesday and Thursday will get somewhat cloudier, but not overcast.  Even warmer, and slightly more humid air will come up this way by then.  If we can retain some sunshine Thursday, some of us in Vermont could hit 70 degrees. Certainly earlier than normal!

Last year, the first 70 of the season was late, not coming until May 15.

As we keep noting, it's dry, and we could use the rain. It's still looking like we might get a decent amount Friday, but that's not guaranteed at all.  Computer forecasting models still don't have a great handle on how the storm coming in will behave. 

Oh, and by the way, it's still very early spring.  We'll be back down to reality next weekend, with high temperatures in the 40s - which isn't really bad for this time of year. 

On top of that, a few computer models bring us some snow Sunday night or Monday.  That, of course is highly  uncertain, but knowing how Vermont weather behaves, I wouldn't be at all surprised to wake up to snow covered ground once again in about a week's time.

Vermont March Warm Spell Nice, But Odd Temperature Spikes Increasingly Common This Time Of Year

I took a screen shot of some of my
saved iPhone images from last 
spring for some color. Spring
heat waves have been getting
more frequent and more intense
in Vermont, a likely sign of 
climate change.

 Starting today, at least some parts of Vermont will see highs in the 60s for five consecutive days.  That's unusual for this time of year, of course. But it's becoming less unusual.

 There's an increasing trend toward very odd temperature spikes in late February, March and April across the Green Mountain State.  This is all a likely sign of climate change at work.

This week's weather is another example of how some pretty wildly warm spring weather has become much more routine in Vermont. 

The strong spring sun can bring temperatures to brief, summer-like levels this this time of year on relatively rare occasions.  Back in 1945 and 1946, temperatures reached the 80s in Vermont in late March.

After that, we went another 30 years before another 80-degree day came on March 30, 1977.  The frequency of such hot days slowly continued to ramp up.

On March 15-17, another big early season heat wave hit.  It hit 83 degrees in Rutland on March 16, 1990, easily the earliest 80 degree reading on record in Vermont. 

 In Burlington, temperatures soared to 78 degrees,  on March 16, 1990. At the time this was by far  the hottest for so early in the season. The 72 degrees on March 15 that year was also easily the earliest 70 degree reading on record for the season.   At the time, I considered that an unbreakable record, but wait for the spoiler. 

Then, just nine years later, another boffo March heat wave hit. Burlington tied its all-time record high for March at 84 degrees. The all-time Vermont wide record for hottest March day was set in southeastern Vermont, with 88 degrees. 

Four years later, it was an April heat wave that broke records.  Until 1976, it had never been known to be at or above 90 degrees in April in Vermont. That year, 1976, a very strange hot spell brought temperatures to 90 degrees and above on April 18 and 19. 

That was widely considered to be something you can't beat. But sure enough, on April 17, 2002, it was 90 degrees in Burlington, taking the place as the earliest 90 degree reading.

More spring records kept falling. In 2012, an unprecedented early season heat wave graced Vermont in mid-March. At at time of year when normal high temperatures are in the low 40s, daily high temperatures in Burlington on March 18-22 were 76.79. 80, 81, 81.  That helped March, 2012 become by far the hottest on record for Vermont. 

In 2016, Burlington set a record for earliest in season 70 degree reading on record on March 9.  That record was shattered a year later when a winter hot spell brought temperatures to 72 degrees on February 25, 2017.  That shattered the record for hottest February day in Burlington by nine degrees.

In 2018, another similar late February heat wave brought temperatures to 69 in Burlington, 70 in Montpelier and 71 in Rutland.

All these stats I threw at you boil down to one statement. Late winter and spring ain't what it used to be in Vermont. 

Once upon a time, this forecast for five 60 degree days in a row in March in Vermont - like we have now - would have been almost unprecedented. With climate change, such warmth has practically been relegated to boring early spring conditions.  

This 'N That: Vermont Springtime Changes, Dry Weather, Hope For Rain, Etc.

Spring advancing quickly.  What part of my property in St. 
Albans Vermont looked like on March 7..........

Today's the first full day of astronomical spring (It arrived officially at 5:37 a.m. Friday) and for once, the weather will match the arrival of the season in Vermont.  

The long advertised March heat wave of sorts arrives today, and will spend nearly a week hanging out around here. 

Today will be the "coolest" of these days, reaching to about 50 degrees this afternoon, which is still several degrees above normal.

Some of the banana belt valleys of Vermont have a shot at seeing four days in a row starting Sunday touching 60 degrees. That's not really record heat, but it's way warmer than normal for this time of year.

Since the weather is quiet, we'll just go over a few weather tidbits for Saturday. 

DRY REMINDER

As I noted yesterday, the price we're paying for the dry weather is a brush fire risk, at least in the valleys.  The last of the snow is melting away.  The humidity under the sunshine for the next few days will be very low.  That will keep drying out last year's brush and debris, so be careful with fire. 

That includes the risk of sparks if you're off roading, along with the usual warnings about back yard burning and throwing cigarette butts out of your car.  

For the record, the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report, issued Thursday, still has virtually all of Vermont listed as being under drought or at least abnormally dry.

BUT NO FLOODS!  

March and April is often the time of year when snow melt, combined with rain storms, produces flooding.  As you might imagine, that risk is pretty low this year, at least for now.  

....same exact view just 12 days later, taken yesterday. If
you look very closely, you could just see a couple 
green shoots of perennials popping up in the flower bed.

The latest biweekly spring flood outlook from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, issued Thursday, makes it official.  In general, it says the chances for spring flooding in the upcoming days or weeks is below normal.

The mountains, though still contain some snow pack, so some higher elevations have enough water contained in that snow to make the chances of flooding there in the next couple of weeks about average.

The snow melt through Thursday will be fairly rapid, but not super fast.  Rivers might end up running sort of high and cold, but not spill over their banks during the week.  Given the dry weather I mentioned above, we could actually use the rain, to put my Captain Obvious hat on here. 

END OF WEEK RAIN?

Some forecasts are calling for - finally - a decent slug of rain toward Friday.  A storm is forecast to go by just to our west, pulling a slug of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture up our way.  That would give us our first mid-size, decent precipitation event since mid-February. 

Of course, drought tends to beget drought, and so far this year, we've frequently had good prospects of heavier precipitation evaporate as the event draws closer.  We'll keep an eye on that storm and hope it nails us with a good drenching.

MISSING OUT ON WINTER?

One nice thing about this extended spell of warm weather is we're missing out on the kind of wintry weather we often get this time of year. 

Normal temperatures between today and a month from now rise especially fast- pretty much the most rapid increase of the year. That means cold and snowy spells quickly lose their oomph. 

Sure, it can still get cold, even below zero in a few corners of Vermont into early April. It also usually snows in late March and April, sometimes heavily.  You can get a foot of snow or more in a single storm in April.

But any snow we do get from now on this spring would melt really fast. And what seems like normal weather now (highs in the low 40s) would be much colder than normal just a month from now. Chilly high temperatures like yesterday (31 in Burlington) are almost impossible a month from now.)

Also, the abnormally warm, gorgeous weather forecast for the next few days becomes just average run of the mill weather by late April. 

Spring, even with its snowy, chilly Vermont blemishes, has sprung.