April In Vermont Was Warmer Than Average, Calmer Than Usual (With An Asterisk)

Every April has its wintry setbacks and April, 2026 was
no exception. Here, snow accumulates on forsythias 
on April 19 in St. Albans, but.......

The numbers are in for April''s weather in Vermont and we enjoyed a warmer than average month with near normal precipitation. 

Compared to many past Aprils, this one was pretty easy for most of us. No extreme snows, no statewide wild windstorms. Temperatures were only occasionally out of whack. 

At Burlington, the average temperature was 47.6 degrees, or two degrees above the "new" normal.  I keep calling it that because normal these days is based on the average of 1990-2020. By those years, the effects to climate change had already kicked in, so "averages" are nowadays warmer than what we saw in the 20th century. 

Looking back at 142 years of records in Burlington, by my calculation, it was the 38th warmest April on record. Nothing extreme, but still balmy. 

Other weather stations in Vermont tended to show that April was two to three degrees warmer than average, as well. 

Rainfall in April was about as normal as you can get.  I checked Burlington, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury. Rutland, Woodstock and Bennington, and all of them were with 0.29 inches of the average for the moth. Burlington had 2.95 inches of rain, just 0.12 inches below normal.

While there were days with wide temperature differences across Vermont, we didn't have the extremes we've seen in many recent Aprils. The month's low of 16 degrees in Burlington was the coldest since 2016, But I was able to find 30 Aprils in the past 128 years that had temperatures as cold or colder than that. 

Over in ice box Saranac Lake, New York, it got below zero on April 8. That tied the record for the third latest in the season subzero temperature 

The one moment when weather got volatile in Vermont was during the middle of the month. A weather front pretty much stalled west to east across the middle of the state. Summer-like weather prevailed in southern Vermont while the north stayed relatively cool.

The contrast set up some thunderstorms. One of those storms, a supercell, produced an EF-1 tornado in Williamstown on April 16. The top winds in the brief tornado were 90 mph, which damaged a barn, a house, outbuildings and trees. It was the first Vermont tornado since 2023 and the first April twister on record for the state.  

....the flowers survived and went on to keep blooming
when warmth and sunshine returned later in the month. 

There were also a few reports of golf ball sized hail with that supercell.  Other strong to even severe thunderstorms roamed through southern Vermont on April 14, 15 and 16. 

A sharp, brief cold wave struck on April 20-21, causing some snow to fall. A hard freeze probably damaged some garden plants, but the freeze didn't really interrupt the progress of spring. 

The weather turned dry at the end of the month, which is the worst time of year for that sort of thing. The dry vegetation from last year hadn't greened up yet, and the strong April sun was able to penetrate forest floors because trees hadn't leafed out yet.

At least 15 fires burned around 100 acres in Vermont between April 22 and May 1. That includes a large forest fire in the hills near Ripton that consumed over 50 acres.

MAY OUTLOOK

The April outlook from NOAA before the month started indicated equal chances of warm or cold, and above normal rainfall. It looks like equal chances should  have been applied to precipitation, since rainfall in April was so close to normal.

But to give NOAA another chance, their May outlook calls for temperatures to trend near to slightly cooler than normal for the month. NOAA gives us equal chances of wetter or drier than average month.  

Frigid April Vermont Morning Came As Predicted; Mostly Dry, Cool-ish Weather Is Up Next

A daffodil tries to recover in the morning sun today after
early morning lows here in St. Albans reached 24 degrees. 

 The worst of our April cold wave will be ending this morning as sunshine boosts temperatures out of the midwinter doldrums. It won't exactly get warm again right away, but at least it will be reasonable.  

After all, Monday was anything but toasty.  The remaining patches of snow in my yard didn't entirely disappear until mid-afternoon. 

Early in the day, Burlington picked up another 0.6 inches of snow.  The average date for the last trace of snow for the season in Burlington is April 15. 

But it could we worse. It could always be worse. Burlington has had as much as three inches of snow on May 9, in 1966 and a trace on May 31, 1945

The National Weather Service had another interesting statistic out of this sudden, brief return to cold. Burlington's records go into the 1880s. There have only been 17 occasions in which a particular day had both temperatures in the 60s and measurable snow.  Two of those days happened in the past couple of months.

On Sunday it was 61 degrees just after midnight early in the morning. By mid-afternoon, 0.2 inches of snow had fallen. A similar situation happened back on March 17.  We started the day before dawn at 65 degrees, but 0.2 inches of snow fell

The most extreme example of warmth on a "snowy" day was on February 25, 2017. A little before 3 p.m. that day, it reached 72 degrees, shattering the record for the warmest February day on record. A cold front arrived later that afternoon, and before midnight, 0.2 inches of snow fell. 

Just one more example of how weather changes quickly here in Vermont

THIS MORNING'S LOWS

Many of us will be picking through the wreckage of our early season gardens. But depending on the plant, we might not know for days what was damaged and what was not. In the case of  plants that are just budding, like lilacs, we might not know for a few weeks if the blooms are OK.

The most intense cold early this morning was brief, so I think there's a good chance that many blooming daffodils and other early flowers survived. I imagine many if not most of the lilac buds did, too. Time will tell. 

Generally the threshold for the start of damage to tough early season blooms is about 25 degrees. Burlington had a low temperature of 25 degrees this morning.

Here in St. Albans, it was 24 degrees just after dawn. Montpelier got to 18 degrees, breaking the record low for the date by one degree.   Lyndonville got down to 18 degrees. Morrisville was 19 degrees. Newport and Bennington was 20 degrees.   The majority of weather stations in Vermont were in the low 20s as of 6 a.m. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got to at least 12 above.

At least this now-ending chill will be the coldest weather we'll see until October or November 

FORECAST

The next several days will be a little cool and almost entirely dry. Today will only make it into the upper 40s for the most part which is still pretty chilly for late April

A very weak disturbance tonight might produce some sprinkles. And maybe some snowflakes in the higher elevations. We just can't let go of winter, can we?

After that, the weather becomes rather boring for us.  Boring is a good thing. That means no tornadoes, no snowstorms, no extreme killing freezes. At least here in Vermont. I can't say the same for other parts of the state.

We will see almost no precipitation for the next week or so.  A block up weather pattern means storms trying to come at us from the west will either fall apart or get pushed well south of us. It still looks like the next chance of rain won't come along until April 29 or so. Even then, early indications are that April 29 rain won't exactly be impressive. 

The rest of this week will be on the cool side. High temperatures this time of year should be in the mid 50s cooler locations and close to 60 elsewhere.  Wednesday through Friday, highs will be in the upper 40s in the chilliest areas of the north to low to mid 50 for most of us. So, not that bad.

It looks like temperatures will warm ever so slightly to near normal levels this weekend. At least for a couple days. The overall weather pattern heading into early May is for slightly cooler than average weather. But this time of year, "slightly cool" is still spring weather.  The season will advance, and we'll forget about our little struggle with this morning's wintry chill. 

Last Warm Day In Vermont Today, A Little Snow And A Hard Freeze To Snap Us Back To Realit

First daffodils of the season in my St. Albans. Vermont
gardens. Will they survive the hard freeze expected
Monday night? Stay tuned!

The good news is a strong cold front that created a nasty tornado outbreak in the Midwest yesterday will not bring any severe weather to Vermont. We already had a tornado in Willliamstown, Vermont Thursday night, so that's enough.  

The bad news is the cold front will bring very cold air this time of year. So cold that it could well damage some or perhaps even many of the plants that have bloomed too early because of the recent warm weather. 

Vermont springs are never easy. 

Let's break it all down for you:

TODAY/TONIGHT

Early this morning, the sun was out, the birds were chirping away, the grass on the lawn is now green and there's buds on the trees. Ahh, spring!  The rest of the day will continue lovely. It will get increasingly breezy. Probably downright windy in the Champlain Valley by late afternoon.  

The winds will be from the southeast, off the Atlantic Ocean, so places east of the Green Mountains will be cooler.  In Brattleboro, where high temperatures have been in the mid 70s to low 80s most of the past week, will probably barely make it to 60 degrees this afternoon.  Meanwhile, the Champlain Valley should be close to 70.

You'll also notice clouds starting to increase west to east this afternoon. That's the first sign of the cold front that will spread rain across Vermont overnight. The rain will continue into Sunday with totals between a half inch and three quarters of an inch. 

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT

Oh, this is not going to be your day. You'll unfortunately need to huddle inside. Unless you love cold, wet, damp, bone-chilling weather.  The day will start off chilly and rainy and those temperatures should fall through the 40s.

In their forecast discussion this morning, meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tell us the computer models are struggling a bit with how Sunday afternoon will play out. We pretty much know mountain summits will see rain change to snow, probably in the morning. 

The valleys have some questions about snow. Sigh, I know. We shouldn't be talking about valley snow still, hut here we are. Some of the computer models end most of the rain before the really cold air arrives, so the valleys wouldn't see any snow during the day under that scenario. Those are the models we're rooting for. 

Other models bring the cold air in sooner, and also slow down and strengthen the cold front. If that happens, we could get a period of snow. Which could be briefly heavy. Even in the Champlain  Valley. 

I'll have an update on this first thing tomorrow morning. 

Whatever happens, Sunday will not be a nice day to say the least. So much for spring. Overnight Sunday, temperatures should fall below freezing almost everywhere, with continued snow showers. There won't be much accumulation, but that's literally cold comfort for April.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT

Monday will bring us back to mid-March. It'll turn out partly sunny in many areas, which is nice, I suppose. But high temperatures will generally be in the 30s to around 40.  That's a good twenty degrees colder than normal for this time of year. Some southern Vermont valleys could make it into the mid-40s, but some high elevations in the north might not get above freezing all day. Yuck. 

Northwest breezes will make it feel colder. For the cherry on top, the Green Mountains might continue to have some light snow showers much of the day. 

Then the bottom drops out of the thermometers Monday night. It should clear up and winds will go light. 

Temperatures should end up in the low to mid 20s for most of us by early Tuesday morning. Colder spots should be in the upper teens. These won't be record lows, but this month's weather, and climate change in general, has screwed everything up. 

Plants are blooming earlier in the spring nowadays due to climate change. Southern Vermont has just gone through nearly a week of summer weather.  Not only has our springs turned warmer, they've gotten more extreme, consistent with climate change. That includes sharp, brief cold snaps that interrupt the warm weather. 

I don't know how much damage this weather will cause, but I think some places will miss out on some spring blooms. Plants and trees whose buds are still pretty tightly closed should be fine. Hardier early season blooms will probably do OK, too. I guess this weather will be an experiment on how much cold plants can take. 

BEYOND MONDAY

After the frigid start to Tuesday, the day will warm up, sort of, but still be much colder than average, with highs in the 40s. An early guess has the rest of the week will feature highs mostly in the low 50s, which is only slightly cooler than average. An improvement, I suppose. It also looks like we'll see very little if any rain next week. 

 

Summer Air Surged North, Couple Big Vermont Storms, Today, Calmer, Mild, But Nasty Cold Snap Coming

I'm so close to seeing daffodils in my yard after  
yesterday's warm, humid weather and rain. But a looming
hard freeze could damage plants on Monday 

 Our stalled weather front surprised us a bit yesterday when it surged north all the way to the Canadian order.  It was supposed to stay chilly and clammy north. But we got a reprieve. 

I knew it was happening by late morning here in St. Albans when I went outside and noticed it was strangely humid for this time of year. 

The warmth spread all the way across northern Vermont to the Canadian border. Newport and Highgate both reached 71 degrees.

 It was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest day so far this year. Rutland reached 80 and Bennington got up to 83 degrees. Not record highs, but impressively warm for this time of year. 

Even more impressive for mid-April was the humidity. The dew point - a good measure of how humid it feels out there - got up to around 60 degrees. That would be considered seasonably humid in July, but it's pretty incredible for April. 

That ensure many of us would see thunderstorms, and sure enough lightning was also detected up to and a bit beyond the Canadian border.  We thought any strong storms would stay in far southern Vermont. But with the front moving further north, the worst of the storms hit central parts of the state

One apparent mini-supercell did cross central Vermont.  It appeared to have some rotation over the Adirondacks, but not nearly enough to produce a tornado. The storm weakened a little as it entered Vermont a little north of Middlebury. 

But it strengthen again in eastern Vermont. Tree damage was reported in Barre and Orange Hail the size of quarters was reported in East Orange.

The storms also produced torrential rain. A little over two inches of rain fell in South Lincoln. 1.83 inches fell in Warren. Jerusalem a hamlet south of Huntington had 1.78 inches.  There might have been a bit of local flash flooding out of those rains, but I haven't seen any such reports. I noticed there was a sharp rise on the Mad River in Moretown last night, but it stopped a little short of flood stage. 

SETTLING DOWN, BUT THEN.......

Our stalled front that's been pestering all week and creating weird temperature variations is finally on its way out. Skies should slowly clear today, revealing a mild afternoon.  And the range in temperatures across Vermont won't be weird, either. Highs will range fro 60 degrees near the Canadian order to near 70 on southern valley floors. 

Tomorrow should be nice, too. Sunshine might tend to fade behind some clouds in the afternoon, especially west. This time, southeastern Vermont might be a touch cooler than the rest of the state for change. 

Winds will come from the southeast, not southwest like they did in southern Vermont for the past few days. Southeast winds come from the cool Atlantic Ocean. So places like Brattleboro might barely make it to 60 degrees while the Champlain Valley flirts with 70

UGH! WINTER COMES BACK

The cold front coming in Saturday night and Sunday really mean business. And not the kind of business we like in the spring. Rain will cone in Saturday night as temperatures start to fall late.

Rain should continue most of Sunday as temperatures fall through the 40s. Rainfall will probably amount to a half inch to three quarters of an inch, give or take.  Then, some of the now light rain showers should change to snow showers Sunday night. Many of us could get a dusting of snow. 

So much for spring. 

It stays bad Monday. We'll start the day at or below freezing, then only get up into the 30s to low 40s during the day. Some places might have record low high temperatures on Monday. The lowest high temperatures on record for that date are in the mid-30s. I think chillier towns like Montpelier or St. Johnsbury could tie or break those records.

Then, it gets well down into the 20s Monday night and early Tuesday. Normally, such temperatures  in the third week in April are unpleasant but not really harmful. .But spring blooms have advanced well beyond normal, especially in southern Vermont where it has been warm all week. A few trees are already starting to green up down that way. 

I'm not sure yet, but Monday night's chill could harm new leaves, springs flowers and even possibly apple and strawberry crops. It depends on  how far buds open by Monday.

I'm full of great news, aren't I?

After that intense for the season cold snap, it will warm up somewhat, but most days through the end of the month and probably into early May will probably be slightly cooler than average. It might be showery at times during that period, but I doubt there will be any big storms. 

Snowy April Day Underway In Vermont, Should Clear Out Late, Spring Still Coming

Traffic camera shows a snowy Route 9 in Searsburg, Vermont
around 7:30 this morning. An initial burst of snow hit
far southern Vermont. Much of the rest of the state
could see briefly heavy snow showers today. 

 If it hasn't snowed where you are yet as you read this in and around Vermont, it will soon. 

A small disturbance is blowing through, consisting oa a reinforcing shot of cold air that'll keep us quite chilly through tomorrow morning. 

A burst of pretty heavy snow has already crossed Bennington and Windham counties in southern Vermont, depositing a quick inch of snow. 

It left roads looking pretty slippery around Bennington and along Route 9 heading up and over the far southern Green Mountains. 

Scattered snow showers were across parts of central Vermont as of 8 a.m. Another main band of snow appeared to be twisting around the mini-storm's center not far from Watertown, New York. It was gradually heading east.

I'm not sure whether that band will hold together completely, but almost all of the state has a shot of a quick inch of snow, if it hasn't already happened. There's a slight question as to whether the snow band will be able to pivot into the far northern Champlain Valley, but for now, we should assume it will. 

In any event, the snow could briefly come down pretty hard anywhere in the state. That means that we'll have to harken back to our winter driving habits a bit as the roads will get briefly slick. Since this is happening in April during the day, some of the snow will tend to start melting off shortly after any bursts of heavier snow ends. 

Hopefully that means any problems with icy roads won't last long. This isn't a full blown winter storm, after all. Just a nippy springtime hassle. 

Yep, another snowfall forecast map. Perhaps the last one
of the season? Don't count on it. This map shows many
of us could get a quick inch of snow. There might
be locally heavier surprises in the mountains

Some places might have more than one burst of heavy snow.  Certain spots in the state could technically get up to two or three inches of snow. 

But it would be an inch that melts, followed by another inch that melts again. So nobody except the high elevations should have much  more than an inch of snow on the ground out of this. 

That said, small mini-storms like this in April can work with amazingly lame amounts of atmospheric moisture and create a good local dump of snow, so keep an eye on it through the day.

 A few isolated spots - mostly up high -  could end up with several inches of surprise snow. No guarantees, but just a possibility there. 

Our little disturbance should start to head on out late this afternoon, taking its snow showers with it. 

FRIGID TONIGHT

We're setting ourselves up for potentially the coldest April night since 2016.  What is likely, hopefully, the last Arctic high pressure system of the season should settle right over the top of overnight and early tomorrow. That means light winds and clear skies - the perfect recipe for a frigid night. 

Or almost perfect. If there's snow cover, it tends to get even colder in these situations. Many of us will still have some snow on the ground overnight, so that could make things even chillier.  The bottom line: Most of us will be in the frigid teens by the time dawn breaks tomorrow. A few of us could be in the single digits. 

That's damn cold for April. Maybe even close to record territory in a few places. Burlington's record low of 11 tomorrow is completely safe.  But it could get close in St. Johnsbury, where the record low is 10 above on Wednesday. The most likely candidate is Montpelier. Their record low tomorrow is 14 degrees, and the forecast low is also 14 degrees.

SPRING RETURNS

Don't worry, we still are convinced spring will come back in a hurry. And stay for awhile this time. Tomorrow afternoon will still be cool for this time of year, but 40s won't seem bad after today. 

Thursday and Friday will pop right up into the nice 50s to low 60s before another cold front comes in. But the next cold front is a spring front, not an Arctic one. So Saturday will probably only be about 50 degree, which is still reasonable.

On top of that, a stiff southwest wind could bring us up to near 70 degrees next Monday if thick clouds and rain hold off until the end of the day. Stay tuned on that one! 

Monday Morning: Back To "Winter Echo" In Vermont For A Couple Days

This garden, as of a this morning covered with a dusting of
snow and a mess of dead leaves and disheveled ground,
will someday be pretty again. Sooner rather than
later, we hope!

 Just for a reminder I live in Vermont, I woke up to a dusting of snow on the ground and some snowflakes in the air outside her in St. Albans, Vermont. 

That's not the least bit odd for early April, I know. But, everyone is anxious to see our world finally start to green up after a long, brown, gray, colorless winter.

Don't worry, the big green-up is coming and soon, but we'll have to deal with the usual "winter echo" we get every spring, in which winter weather continues to reverberate after the main show is done.

This year's episode of "winter echo' is pretty mellow compared to some years, so we have that to be thankful for, too.

COLD SPELL

This semi-return to winter really kind of started yesterday. It never really was able to partly clear up and warm up much across the Green Mountain State yesterday. It stayed rather chilly and raw all day even as rain tapered off as expected in the afternoon. 

Colder air coming in last night left us that lovely dusting of snow. At least in some parts of Vermont. It looks like the mountains picked up and inch or two of snow. Vermont Agency of Transportation web games showed is snowing pretty hard again around Jay Peak as of around 8 a.m. this morning. 

This morning's snow showers might tend to dry up during the day today, though they might not entirely die out. I imagine they might especially hang on like a bad party guest in the northern and central Green Mountains off and on all day. 

Highs today will only make it to around 40, give or take, which is about ten degrees chillier than average for this time of year. 

But then it gets worse.

TUESDAY

A reinforcing shot of frigid Canadian air is about to give us a January in April day tomorrow. Highs across most of northern Vermont won't get above freezing, and warmer southern valleys should mostly stay at or below 40 degrees.  

For comparison, valleys north should be around 50 degrees during the afternoons this time of year, while southern valleys should be in the low 50s.

This reinforcing shot of cold air will also bring through a disturbance during the day that should kick off quite a few snow showers. That it's coming through during the day means snow accumulations should be limited. Maybe an inch or less in the valleys and a couple inches in the mountains. 

It might be one of those days in which  you actually get a couple inches of snow, but never actually see that much on the ground. With the strong sun angle of April, you might get a half inch of snow in a burst, then it melts, to be followed by another half inch that melts, etc, 

The orientation is a little in question, so it's hard to tell who gets the most snow. It doesn't really matter that much, because it won't be a lot. Especially first thing tomorrow morning, that snow might be creating slick spots on the roads, though, so keep that in mind.  

The April cold will be a little more intense than we've seen in recent years. The National Weather Service is going for a high tomorrow of 32 in Burlington and a Wednesday morning low of 19. 

If that happens, it'll be the first time since 2016 that a day didn't;t get above freezing in April. It would also be the first time since 2016, and the second time in 20 years that it gets into the teens. It'll be a close call.

Before climate change kicked in, we would much more often see subfreezing highs in April and lows in the teens and even single numbers during the month. The world is warmer now, so we're not used to cold snaps that were once routine, but are now kind of exceptional. 

THE WARMUP

We're not going to flip to anything record warm or anything like that, but you'll find the second half of the week, next weekend and beyond much more palatable. Wednesday afternoon should still be cool after that frigid start, but the warm April sun will make it feel OK. 

It's hard to get a feel for exactly how warm it might get starting Thursday, but 50s and low 60s for daily highs looks reasonable at this point. That's somewhat milder than average, and we'll take it. Since the warm up looks like it will last at least several days, you'll start to see lawns green up a little, garden perennials sprout, and tree buds swell.

It's a promise. Despite "winter's echo," spring is inevitable. 

More Wintry Weather But Very Little New Snow Coming For Vermont

Henry The Weather Dog takes a quick measurement
of last night's very light snow in St Albans, Vermont
before rushing back into his warm house

 Yesterday's series of fronts left us with just the slightest amount of new snow. Which is fine, since I've really soured on the idea of shoveling heaps of it. 

Burlington has just 0.3 inches of snow. Here in St. Albans, it amounted to 0.8 inches, in other words just shy of an inch. 

I'm sure some of the ski resorts picked up one to three inches to freshen things up a bit  But we're not exactly going through a big cleanup like post-blizzard southern New England continues to deal with. 

Some of us might see a couple more snow showers this morning, but it any snowflakes appear in the sky, it won't amount to anything.

For some of of us, especially in the Champlain Valley the high temperature today hit just after midnight before cooler air began flowing in.  Temperatures today will stay just below freezing. An exception might be southern Vermont valleys, which could sneak up to 33 or 34 degrees.

We've got another cold one coming tonight, as that seems to be our style this winter. By dawn tomorrow, most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, but the cold spots will get below zero. Those readings will seem mild compared to what's coming by Monday. More on that in a bit.

On Friday, strong end of February sun will get us into the low and mid 30s, which is about normal for this time of year. 

ARCTIC COLD FRONT

It still appears we'll have an ever so brief, sort of hint of spring on Saturday, but it definitely won't be all chirping birds and blossoms.

As it warms up Saturday morning, a stiff south wind will kick up, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there will gust over 40 mph. Which means it won't exactly feel balmy out there. 

The cold front should arrive in the afternoon, so we might see temperatures already falling before sunset. 

We'll probably will see some snow showers, with maybe a little bit of rain Saturday before the cold front arrives. Again, anything that comes out of the sky Saturday won't amount to much. 

As the cold air blasts in Saturday night and Sunday, a disturbance scooting in from the west might drop a little snow on us. But those indecisive compute models disagree on whether that would happen and if it does, how much snow we'll get.

For now, anyway, it doesn't look like the snow will amount to much more than an inch, but we'll keep you posted. 

We're definitely sure we have a late season Arctic blast on our hands. It'll hit just as March arrives, so it won't have the intensity of cold snaps we saw in late January and early February. 

Still, it'll be a shiver me timbers couple of days. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be in the teens, which is a good 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows Monday morning will be well below zero. Early guesses are in the single numbers below zero in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont hot spots, and the teens below elsewhere. 

Tuesday morning lows might be below zero too.

There's a fairly decent chance that in the warmer spots in Vermont, like around Burlington, the chill early next week might well be the last subzero temperatures until next winter.

Beyond early next week, the forecast gets hazy. It will warm up at least a little, There might be some sort of small storm next Wednesday, but that still has a lot of question marks attached to it.

 The computer models are still insisting on a true thaw beginning roughly a week from now. .That thaw would last several days if these models are correct. But, you've heard me say before I don't trust these long range forecasts, and nothing is changing my mind here.

I continue to hope for that thaw, but know that by the time we get to a week from now, that thaw might well vanish in favor of more winter weather. 

However, since we're getting into March, it's going to be harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing all day. 

Back To Winter Here In Vermont. But It's Worse Elsewhere

Though remaining snow ended in most of Vermont 
overnight, light snow continued in parts of the 
Champlain Valley past dawn. This is a traffic cam
grab of Route 7 in Ferrisburgh at around 8 a.m today.

The cold air is back in Vermont.  It makes it feel like today's date is not January 16, but January 359. January always seems like by far the longest month of the year. 

In Burlington, yesterday was the last of nine consecutive days with above freezing high temperatures. I can guarantee it will stay below freezing today. 

During the transition to colder weather in Vermont yesterday afternoon, we ended up with some lingering trouble on the roads.  

The incoming cold air stalled out temporarily, and temperatures in most places east of the Champlain Valley stayed a bit above freezing until afternoon. In the Champlain Valley, a little freezing drizzle fell in the late morning before precipitation changed to light snow. 

The result of all this was some nasty Vermont roads for awhile. There were some crashes along Interstate 89 in the Bolton area. Another two vehicle crash was reported in Fairfax.

Since this is blessed Vermont, things once again were much worse elsewhere. That's almost always the case. 

Areas in the snow belt regions of the Great Lakes saw a rash of big highway pileups over the past couple of days. 

In New York, not far from Syracuse, at least 36 vehicles crashed into each other on Interstate 81, injuring at least seven people. Two big pileups occurred in Pennsylvania, one on Interstate 90 in Erie County and another on Interstate 80 in Clarion County. 

On Wednesday, at least thirty vehicles piled up on the Indiana Toll Road in Elkhart County on Wednesday amid heavy snow there. 

Up in Toronto, Canada, nine inches of snow snarled traffic and closed schools. 

 VERMONT FORECAST

Higher elevations did get cold enough for some snow overnight Wednesday and early Thursday, even as valleys remained above freezing and rainy. The most I saw was 4.7 in Craftsbury and 4.6 in South Albany.  Other mid-elevation locations had maybe two or three inches. Very little fell in most valleys. 

 More light snow broke out Thursday afternoon and night. This was light, fluffy stuff. At least it created a thin layer of fresh powder atop the old crust from previous, rain-soaked snows. 

 The additional snow yesterday afternoon and last night amounted to one to three inches in some areas of northern Vermont. Valleys in southern Vermont pretty much missed out. 

Here in St. Albans, Vermont, at my place, I received 1.1 inches of snow. A third of an inch of that was that crusty, schmutzy stuff from yesterday morning. The rest was feathery fluff that fell from late afternoon yesterday to early this morning. 

The snow overnight has been especially persistent in the Champlain Valley for some reason.  I bet some places in the central and southern Champlain Valley and adjacent Green Mountains to the east picked up at least two inches of fluff, judging from radar images. 

Judging from traffic cameras, most roads in Vermont didn't look too bad, though some in the southern Champlain Valley and through the Green Mountains had some snow on them. Likely icy patches, too.

We probably aren't going to see much snow going forward. At least for the next few days. The heavy stuff will be mostly limited to lake effect near the Great Lakes, the kind that contributed to those pileups in Pennsylvania and New York. 

As expected, it's cold this morning, with temperatures in the single numbers in most places. It'll stay cold today, with highs in the teens to near 20.

The chill should ease off over the weekend. It'll pop back up into the low 30s in the valleys Saturday and within a few degrees of 30 degrees on Sunday. 

While we're experiencing average January weather here on Sunday, it might actually snow a little in the Florida panhandle. If it does, it'll be the second January in a row with snow there. Though last year's snow was much bigger, epically breaking records. 

We'll always have a chance of some light snow and flurries all weekend. Most places will have an inch or less. However, the southern Green Mountains could pick up a few inches from the tail end of lake effect from the Great Lakes. 

BITTER COLD RETURNS

On Monday, it's beginning to look like a nor'easter will pass by New England, offshore. At this point it looks like it will have little, if any effect on Vermont. But we'll watch this, because if the storm tracks further west than expected, we could see some snow, especially south and east. 

That would be nice, as that part of Vermont has largely missed out of snow lately. 

The nor'easter is iffy, the forecast for frigid weather is not. The middle of next week will be brutal, with highs probably staying in the single number and low teens and lows below zero. Nothing even close to record breaking but still very noticeable. 

It'll stay cold late next week and beyond, but we're not yet sure how cold. Frigid air will lurk nearby for the rest of the month, and occasionally, ooze on in to send temperatures below zero again. 

The weather pattern will remain active, with several disturbances and storms in the mix later next week and beyond. It's way too soon to say which ones, if any will affect us. It's always possible one or more of these could give us a big dump of snow, but there's no way to determine that right now. 

 

Christmas Day In Vermont Is Wintry, Will Get Even More So

Henry the Weather Dog is seen here wishing 
everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
He's staying inside as temperatures plunge'
through the teens today. 

Merry Christmas, Vermont!!

As you're opening your presents this morning, the landscape outside is nicely covered in snow. In some areas of the Green Mountain State, more light snow is drifting down. 

The white Christmas we're experiencing is mostly due to that storm we had Tuesday and Tuesday night, which behaved pretty much as expected, at least here in Vermont. 

Almost everyone in Vermont got three to six inches of snow, so it was a pretty uniform distribution. Everybody had a piece of the snow party. There were a couple exceptions, both on the high and low end of the tally.

The most snow I could find out of the storm was nine inches in Northfield and eight inches in both Woodbury and Moretown.  Parts of southwestern Vermont got cheated a little. Western Rutland and Bennington counties, along with the extreme southeastern corner of the state only got 1 to 2.5 inches of snow.

TODAY

It's wintry out there, and it's going to get more even more wintry.   

Map showing total snowfall from the storm that 
ended yesterday. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. Most of the state 
received three to six inches of snow. 

The scattered snow this morning is due to an Arctic cold front pressing down on us from the north. As the frigid air starts to blast in this afternoon, the temperature will plunge and the winds will pick up.

Temperatures in most of the Green Mountain State are in the 20s this morning and will fall through the teens this afternoon. 

Winds will pick up and gust to 35 mph tor so his afternoon. If you're doing anything outside today, like taking a walk, or a quick ski or snowshoe, it's best to do it this morning. 

The snow will stop by this afternoon in most of the state but there will be a few exceptions. The mountains could continue to get flurries, that's not weird. 

The weird part is some lake effect snows. Parts of the Champlain Valley and adjacent hills to the east could get some lake effect snow off of Lake Champlain. This could affect road conditions a little in southern Chittenden, Addison and maybe northwestern Rutland County. 

Tonight, the wind will eventually die off,  and skies will clear out. The combination will help cause temperatures to plunge to zero or below in most of the state.

SATURDAY

Skies will tend to cloud up on Saturday due to a weird storm passing by to our west, and there might be some weird wrinkles to it. Most storms travel from southwest to northeast, or sometimes just west to east. Sometimes, Alberta clippers, those small, quick moving storms with light precipitation, do move southeastward to some extent.

The next storm in the pipeline is heading toward the southeast. Current projection have it in Michigan tomorrow morning, and somewhere around New Jersey early Saturday. The difference is this storm has more oomph to it than most Alberta clippers.

Most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey are under winter storm watches because several inches of snow, -plus dangerous amounts of freezing rain are likely to assault those areas Friday into early Saturday. 

I'm bringing all this up because this might affect at least parts of Vermont. Earlier forecasts indicated we would only see some light flurries south. Now, the computer models have edged the projected path of the storm northward a bit. 

At this point, the forecast has a little snow falling Friday night south and west of Interstate 89. Areas down around Bennington County would get one to three inches of snow. 

But if the trend continues with a more and more northward path for this storm, more of Vermont might get more snow. Stay tuned.

There's still yet another storm for later on Sunday, and this one looks like it will probably consist of a messy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. We'll have more details as we get close to that icky, icy storm. 

As Expected, Line of Heavy Snow Disrupted Morning Commute; Big Chill Roaring In

Interstate 89 in Colchester as the heavy snow
showers passed through this morning. If you 
look closely in upper left corner, it looks like
a car is off the road and in a ditch. 

It's another blustery, snowy morning in at least parts of Vermont this morning, as expected. Our Arctic front is coming though, and with it, some heavy snow showers. 

As of 7:30 a.m. a narrow band of heavy snow was in a southwest to northeast oriented band over Chittenden County and northern Vermont near the Green Mountains.

 It was heading southeastward, ,continuing to head down Interstate 89 toward Montpelier. The burst of heavy snow was approaching Waterbury as of 8:30 a.m. 

It wasn't quite considered a snow squall as of this writing, but it was close. Underneath this burst of snow, visibility is really bad and the roads got from clear to snowy in a flash.  

Traffic cams showed Interstate 89 going from near-perfect to snow covered and pretty gnarly within minutes when the heavy snow band arrives 

The snow doesn't stop after the almost-snow squall goes through. More snow showers continue after it, so road crews won't immediately be able to get road conditions pristine. It was still snowing at a decent clip here in St. Albans an hour and a half after that initial band of heavier snow came through. 

In fact, it looks like a second heavy band of snow was setting up over Franklin County, and that could cause more trouble across northwest and north-central Vermont between 8:30 am. and mid-morning. 

Bottom line, if it has already snowed where you are in northern Vermont, the road conditions won't get better fast. If it hasn't snowed yet where you are, you'll see a quick shift to those icy roads. 

The line of snow will reach southern and eastern Vermont later this morning, maybe very early in the afternoon down toward the southeast corner.

THE ARCTIC BLAST

Traffic cam image from this morning after the worst
of the sow had passed shows traffic backed up
on northbound Interstate 89 between South Burlington
and Colchester, due to reported crashes. 

After most of the snow clears, today will not be a nice one.  Gusty north winds up to 30 mph will blow the snow around, and the temperatures will crash. High temperatures near 30 this morning will be falling through the teens this afternoon. 

The forecast for tonight is unchanged. The winds will diminish a little, but still be strong enough to get wind chills as low as the teens below zero.  

Actual temperatures are still going to bottom out tomorrow morning within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This is going to be a particularly brutal cold snap up in the mountains. I'd forget the back country skiing this afternoon and tonight. 

If you want extremes, the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire is expecting lows overnight that could threaten the record low of 21 below.  Add in Mount Washington's usual extreme winds and that makes things outdoors unsurvivable up there.   

It stays cold tomorrow, then it'll marginally warm up Saturday, just in time for the next Arctic front. The worst of the next cold snap, with highs in the teens and lows in the single numbers above or below zero, will run from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. 

At this point, unless something changes that I don't yet know about, it should stay generally colder than normal most days around here at least through about December 20.

Snow Squalls To Screw Up Thursday Morning Vermont Commute, Long Cold Spell Still On Tap

Inside a St. Albans, Vermont snow squall in 2021.
At least some places in Vermont will have scenes
like this tomorrow morning 

The snow squall risk for Thursday we've been talking about all week still looks to be on schedule for tomorrow morning. 

That Arctic cold front  is expected to collide with a lake affect snow band that will be oriented southwest to northwest over northwest New York. This will at least temporarily add oomph to an already strong cold front. 

That means there's an excellent chance of snow showers and - very likely - snow squalls tomorrow morning. 

The timing of this is everything, since a lot of people will be headed to work or school when this blast of snow comes through. 

Sometime during the morning commute, this expected line of snow squalls will basically travel down Interstate 89 to Montpelier and beyond. The squalls will affect most of the rest of Vermont as well, but I'm highlighting the Interstate as it's the main travel corridor in Vermont. 

Plus, since Interstate 89 is a high speed highway, a sudden blast of near-whiteout conditions hitting fairly fast moving cars is a recipe for trouble. 

The goal might be to get to work or school before the squalls hit, or postpone travel until an hour or two after they pass. But pinning down the exact timing is tough. 

We have a general idea. As of late this afternoon, the guess is the line would hit St. Albans around 5 or 6 a.m., then make it down to Burlington and surrounding communities a little after 6 to around 7 a.m., give or take. By 9 or 10 a.m., the squalls might be somewhere in central Vermont, maybe Montpelier. 

Different computer models have different timing for the band of snow squalls. Two of the models I checked out late this afternoon has the line of snow squalls up by St. Albans at 6 a.m. Another has it between St.Albans and Burlington at that hour. Another computer model is fastest with the line, bringing it through Burlington and a little past Burlington by 6 a.m.

You'll want to listen for snow squall warnings from the National Weather Service tomorrow morning to get an idea of where they are. Snow squall warnings are very much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. Each warning covers a relatively small area, like one county or parts of adjacent counties. 

Even after the potential squalls go by, we're not out of the woods. There will still be some more snow showers for awhile. Though not as intense as snow squalls, they'll still cut visibility, and strong northwest winds will blow the snow around. 

PLUNGING TEMPERATURES

NOAA's 6 to10 day outlook, issued today,
places the greatest chance of colder 
than normal temperatures right over us. 

It feels too early for this, but forget about it getting above freezing for long while. 

Perhaps even in the banana belt towns in southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley. Normal highs in Burlington are in the mid to perhaps upper 30s this time of year. 

We won't see anything like that for at least 10 days, maybe more, I think. 

The initial temperature plunge coming up tomorrow and tomorrow night will arguably be the worst of the lot. 

It'll he near 30 degrees early tomorrow before the Arctic front hits. Temperatures will plunged through the 20s and teens during the days as blustery northwest winds drop the wind chill below zero for most of us. 

It still looks like Friday morning will dawn with temperatures within a few degrees either side of zero. 

This sounds like a load of fun, doesn't it?

After a cold Friday, it'll actually warm up a little Saturday. Compared to Friday, it will be tropical heat, as we might make it into the low 30s.

Then, it's another Arctic blast for early next week. And it looks like it wants to stay nippy at least into the middle of the month. NOAA's longer range forecasts indicate the spot in the nation with the greatest chance of below normal temperatures is right here in New England.   

I'm only bringing this up to jinx it. Maybe if I tout a long range forecast like this, we'll get some unexpected warmth. Just don't bet your next paycheck,on that. 

There will be occasional chances of snow, and whatever falls would obviously stick. But unless there's some sort of surprise, I don't see any big dumps on the horizon. 

The Vermont Weather Roller Coaster Is On An Extreme Trip

Our by now very familiar snow forecast map from the
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
This one depicts the mostly 2 or 3 inches of snow
we expect from a snowfall tonight and Saturday
morning. More snow in the mountains as 
usual with this one. 

Around 5 a.m. this morning, it was still above freezing in most of Vermont after an overnight thaw. 

By dawn, things were quite different. 

Temperatures across the northern part of the state were crashing through the 20s, and those trends were soon to follow south. 

It's another backwards day, with high temperatures when they're supposed to be at lowest, and low temperatures in the afternoon when they're supposed to be at their highest. 

We're going to see a lot of huge temperature gyrations over the next few days. 

I'd watch it on some of the roads during this morning's commute. A few snow showers accompanied the blast of colder air this morning, so there will be a slick spot or two here and there. It might not be as widespread as Thursday's mess on the roads, but it's an issue. I noticed a pretty good snow squall in Addison and Washington counties around 6:15 a.m. today, for instance. 

Gusty winds this morning will make it feel colder, but those readings will level off in the teens and 20s this afternoon. 

Things will continue with the temperatures doing the opposite of what they should tonight and tomorrow.

THE CLIPPER

Tonight, a fast moving storm - known as one of those infamous Alberta Clippers - will come in from the west, giving us a burst of snow, then rising temperatures overnight. Maybe even a few rain showers as temperatures sneak above freezing for most of us by tomorrow morning. That will be followed by an even bigger temperature crash during Saturday afternoon.

Most of us will get a decent but short burst of snow overnight, lasting no more than six hours and depositing maybe two or three inches of snow in the valleys and up to five or six in the mountains That should hit between about 8 p.m. and 1 a.m., give or take. 

Just as the snow will last only a few hours, the "thaw" Saturday will only last about that long.  Most of us will start getting above freezing early Saturday morning, but those temperatures should start to crash by early afternoon.  Backwards again, as it normally keeps getting warmer through the early and mid afternoon. Not on Saturday!

Those falling temperatures will be accompanied by snow showers, and a few scattered snow squalls. So once again on Saturday afternoon, you could get caught on some iffy Vermont roads and highways if you're out there during the day. 

THE COLD WAVE

I know this is hitting March, when you start to expect to see  the strength of cold waves starting to wane. But this one could be among the strongest this winter. Which isn't saying a whole lot, since we never did see anything worse than 20s below this winter. 

This time we'll eventually see lows in the single numbers below zero in the warmer banana belt towns and teens below elsewhere. Those frigid temperatures should hit early Monday morning. 

Before we get there, we'll wake up Sunday morning with readings pretty close to 0 degrees. We'll only make it into the teens at best Sunday afternoon.  At least the sun will come out. 

The cold snap will be short-lived, as is usually the case with March bouts of winter weather. Monday will remain unseasonably cold with highs near 20.  But temperatures won't drop much Monday night, and most of us will be back above freezing Tuesday afternoon. 

We're still watching a storm for midweek that looks like it wants to produce rain and temperatures in the 40s.  For now anyway, forecasters have backed off on the amount of rain we'll get from it. But we'll still need to keep tabs on whether enough thawing and rain will come to set off any flooding or river ice jams.  

Strong August Vermont Cool Spell Looms, But Back In The Day, It Would Have Been "Normal"

It's going to feel like autumn in Vermont this coming week,
though we'll definitely have to wait several more weeks at
least before we see fall foliage and snow
capped mountains like this. 

 Arguably the coolest August weather in quite a few years appears to be looming in Vermont for the upcoming week. 

It's looking like we'll have a couple days with highs just in the 60s, with maybe a couple upper 50s for highs in the coldest spots. Overnight lows during this spell, which will peak Tuesday and Wednesday, will fall into the 40s to maybe around 50 in the warmest spots.

That's quite a shocking change after the long, humid, almost tropical summer we've had here in the Green Mountain State. 

It's still hazy and humid out there this Sunday morning. Some light showers dampened things last night, and we have a chance of some scattered showers today. Not too big a deal. Though an isolated spot or two could see a very heavy downpour. 

Monday will be the transition day, as a wet cold front comes through. Most of us should see a good inch of rain by the time it winds down Monday night. 

We'll have to watch for locally heavy rain. It's possible some embedded thunderstorms could hit the same spot repeatedly, raising the (again!) risk of isolated flash flooding. It doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem, but it is something to watch in case things get out of control in one or two towns.

THE COLD SNAP

Forecasts have been trending colder and colder with the upcoming cool blast of air. It will really feel like we're well into autumn Tuesday and Wednesday. 

On both days, there's some questions as to how much cloudiness and showers will be around. Some forecasts have only widely scattered showers under partly sunny skies both days. If that happens, highs will reach the upper 60s for most of us, which is cool for the season, but not totally out of control.

Some forecasts call for lots of clouds and showers both days, which would hold high temperatures in the low 60s, with some upper 50s in the colder, higher elevation towns.  Stiff north winds would make it feel chillier.

Drag out those hoodies and blankets, folks!

I don't think anybody has to worry about frosty nights just yet, but the colder hollows could reach the upper 30s if skies clear enough during the nights.

It'll start to gradually warm up later in the week, and we should be back to normal temperatures (highs 75-82, lows in the 50s to near 60) by next weekend. 

OLD FASHIONED COLD

Nowadays, the type of chill that's in the forecast for this upcoming week is unusual for August. Climate change has made summers hotter, so a couple days of highs in the 60s this time of year has become unusual. 

Especially if you consider the top four hottest Augusts in Burlington have all occurred since just 2016.  

It never used to be that way a few decades ago.  A few days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s used to happen virtually every August. The coldest high temperature on record for Tuesday in Burlington is 60 degrees, and for Wednesday that record coldest high is 58 degrees.  I strongly doubt we'll break those records. 

There's lots of examples of cold August weather in the past. 

In August 1965 and 1976, it got as cold as 35 degrees in Burlington, and widespread frosts damaged crops in other parts of Vermont.  Eight of the first 10 days of August 1964 got into the 40s in Burlington. On the weekend of August 21-22, 1982, skiers cut turns on three inches of fresh snow near the summit of Killington. 

So yes, it was a different type of late summer in Vermont a few decades ago. 

COLD TO HEAT?

The following is the most uncertain part of the forecast, but there's some evidence to suggest the cold high pressure from Canada this week will end up moving to our east and eventually merging with the Bermuda High. 

If the happens, and if no new cold fronts immediately emerge from Canada, the same weather system that is about to cause our big preview to autumn might also eventually bring in some late season heat. Stay tuned on that one.   

Vermont Cold Blast Still On. Forecasters Back Off On Snow, But COLD Tonight, Thursday Night

My perennial garden looking pretty good in the rain
this morning in St. Albans, Vermont after husband Jeff
removed debris from the tree that fell on it back on April 12.
We'll see how this garden weathers the hard freezes
due tonight and tomorrow night. 

 It was still pretty mild out there early this morning as our dreaded Arctic cold front still lurked a little to our north and west. 

I guess we should be happy that forecasters have backed off on snow chances this afternoon. 

Instead of accumulations almost statewide, most of any light snow cover should stay at or above 1,000 feet in elevation. It'll mostly be just rain just before and during the transition to cold. 

Snow flakes will still probably make it down into valley floors this afternoon as temperatures crash down through the 40s and into the 30s. Winter arrives today, for sure for a short stay, anyway. 

Of course, a difference of a couple degrees could surprise us with an unexpected burst of heavier snow, but that looks less likely now, 

THE FREEZE

The real story of course is the temperatures. It will be the chilliest night since March 25, when it was in the upper single numbers and teens across Vermont. It won't be that cold tonight, of course, but it will far below freezing across all of Vermont, except maybe right along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. 

It won't be nearly as cold as it was in late March,   but now we have garden plants and shrubs blooming and budding. It'll be Friday before we know how things weathered the cold. 

Although forecasters have relaxed a little about snow chances today, the predictions have stayed very consistent for the cold tonight. 

The air coming in is super dry, which is common for bursts of air from Canada this time of year. That will allow the skies to clear out very fast this evening.  That, in turn, will let temperatures keep crashing downward. 

By dawn, it will be in the upper teens in the cold hollows, and between 21 and 27 degrees for the vast majority of us. 

HISTORICAL COMPARISON

On a historical basis, such temperatures this time of year are not super out of the ordinary for this time of year. It's been colder than what we're expecting tonight on several occasions this time of year. 

Interestingly, the coldest spell on record exactly mirrors what's happening now, but it won't turn out to be quite as bad.

The high and low temperature in Burlington exactly matched yesterday, April 23, 2024 and on April 23, 1919. The high and low temperatures on both days were 70/33.   Just like today, a very sharp cold front came through on April 24, 1919, dropping temperatures from 56 in the morning to 27 by midnight. 

But that 1919 Arctic blast was much worse than this one will be. The  low temperature on April 25, 1919 in Burlington was 20 degrees, and it only made it to 27 degrees that afternoon. Yes, the "high" was well below freezing. Then it got down to 20 again the next night, and only to 35 on the afternoon of the 26th. It also snowed a little both days. 

This time around, the low temperature forecast tomorrow morning in Burlington is around 25, and it should make it into the mid-40s by afternoon. 

The cold snap we're about to get is less intense but more fraught than in 1919 because of climate change. Gardens and plants in general are much further along now than they were at this time in 1919, setting us up for the chance of frost and freeze damage this time. 

Luckily, most major orchards are not blooming yet, just budding, so that might save some damage. Also, garden plants like daffodils and such are pretty tough. It will still be interesting to see how lilacs do this year after the upcoming freeze. Fingers crossed they'll be beautiful in May despite this expected freeze. 

NEXT UP

Thursday night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight will be, but winds will be calmer than tonight. That sets the stage for more frost, which can be more damaging to plants than just a freeze with no frost. So we'll see how that goes.

By Friday afternoon, it'll pretty much be over as sunshine boosts us well into the 50s by afternoon. Friday night will be kind of cold again but not as bad as the previous two nights.

After that, the weather pattern will settle into one that's warmer but unsettled Saturday into next week. Highs will get well into the 60s to maybe low 70s during that period, but there will be frequent chances of showers.  

Saturday Vermont Snowstorm Pretty Much Definite, Amounts Still Open To Question

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
increased expected snow amounts from this Saturday's
storm in central and northern Vermont. Looks like
rain will cut down accumulations from about
Route 4 south. 

 You know we're getting a storm when I do morning and evening updates on the event.

It's looking pretty definite now that most of Vermont is in for a pretty big snowstorm Saturday that will screw up travel and maybe power lines.  

Let's get into the updates we saw this afternoon:

FORECAST AMOUNTS

In central and northern Vermont, expected snow amounts have been pushed upward a fair amount compared to this morning's forecast.

The exception to that is south of Route 4, which I'll get into in a bit.

First, forecasters are pretty confident now there will be at least six inches of snow north of Route 4. Though not quite confident enough yet to upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning. little compared to forecasts from this morning. 

For instance, this mornings forecast had 5.1 inches falling in Burlington. The latest forecast issued this afternoon has 10 inches in Burlington. Montpelier went from 6.3 to 9.3 inches. St. Albans went from 6.5 to 10.6 inches. 

We have to wait and see whether that upward trend continues, or something short circuits that idea.

The worst case scenario - with a 10 percent chance of it happening - would be a whopping 15 to 24 inches of snow north of Route 4.  That would happen if the moisture flow off the Atlantic is stronger than expected and it stays cold enough for snow. Don't count on it, but it is still plausible. 

A best case scenario - if you don't like spring snow - is warm air would push to the Canadian border for a time, cutting snow totals to six inches or less. That scenario is also unlikely, but could surprise us. 

 Latest forecasts do have the slightly warmer air making it as far north as around Route 4.  If the forecast holds, an initial burst of snow would change to rain or even freezing rain in spots down that way.  Which means snow accumulations would be five inches or less if this comes true. 

A blizzardy look in St. Albans, Vermont this morning
before the air dried out and partial, but cold
sunshine appeared in the afternoon. 

So far at least, it doesn't look like there will be enough freezing rain to sag the trees and break power lines, except perhaps in the mountains of eastern Rutland County and western Windsor. 

Of course the other problem is wet snow.  

It's late in the snow season, and the bulk of the snow will happen during the day Saturday, when the stronger March sun can sort of bleed through the clouds a bit. 

That would turn what might be a relatively powdery snow that comes down before dawn to slush falling from the sky during the day. 

It's a little too soon to tell if the wet snow would be another electricity killer, so we'll have to watch out.

GETTING THERE

It was damn cold today compared to what we got used to this month. You noticed, that, huh?  Some Northeast Kingdom towns were still in the upper teens at mid-afternoon. Those cold hollows should make it close to zero tonight, while the rest of us bottom out by dawn Friday somewhere between 5 and 15 above, warmest in the Champlain Valley. 

Those aren't record lows, but pretty chilly for this time of year nonetheless. 

Sunshine will fade behind increasing high clouds tomorrow, and it'll stay cold. Not as bad as today, but a high of 30 or so isn't great for late March. 

The snow should arrive shortly after midnight early Saturday west and during the pre-dawn hours east. It'll continue all day Saturday, except for that maybe rain or freezing rain crap in the south. 

MOVING ON

The snow should end Saturday night. After the storm, it will remain chilly Sunday, with highs barely making it into the 30s.  The high angle sun should start to melt the snow off pavement, and out of protected corners and such.  

As temperatures rise into the low 40s Monday, the pace of melting will start to ramp up. And it will really get going if daily highs from Tuesday onward next week reach the 40s, maybe near 50 in warmer valleys, if forecasts issued today hold true. 

This cold/snowy episode should prevent an early end to the maple sugaring season. I was worried about that as we had a warm month until now.  We're setting up for an excellent sap run next week. We're also setting up for an extension of our long, long and very rough mud season.  

We'll have to watch out for some spring flooding if we get any big rain storms in the coming weeks. Especially after this new storm there will be plenty of snow in the mountains that will eventually have to melt. 

The water equivalent of the upcoming storm is one to two inches, which is quite a bit. That's on top of the surprising amounts of snow the mountains have gotten since Sunday.

The good news is next week isn't looking super warm, so the melt won't be overly fast. Even better, unless we see some sort of surprise, rainfall next week looks pretty unimpressive. 

Also, the deep snow is pretty much confined to the mountains, at least for now. We'll have to wait and see what happens Saturday.   

Considering all that, I'm not too worried about another big flood at the moment. We don't exactly need another one.  

 

Texas Cold Snap/Winter Storm Prompts Flashback To 2021 Nightmare

Lots of winter-related alerts in Houston this week as
the worst cold wave in three years descended. Unlike
the 2021 disaster, the state's electrical grid is
expected to survive this cold snap, probably. 

 For the first time this winter, it's cold across pretty much all of Texas. 

Wind chill alerts extend from Amarillo in the northern panhandle to Brownsville at the southern tip of the state. 

Freezing drizzle has been falling in spots around Texas, causing gridlock on the roads.  

This is all prompting flashbacks to the February, 2021 disaster. In that case, record cold combined with incompetent management of the Texas electrical grid created long lasting, widespread power outages. 

As a result, at least 246 Texans died in the freeze, though some estimates brought the total to at least 700. Damage amounted to more than $1 billion as frozen pipes burst statewide, causing widespread property destruction.

The still not aptly named Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT was urging people to conserve electricity today to prevent another round of blackouts. 

Stores reported some panic buying, as people cleared shelves of bread, milk and other household groceries. 

So far, though, unlike in 2021, the Texas electrical grid appears to be holding up. Mostly because this freeze is not as deep and won't be as long lasting as the one three years ago.

Plus, in a rare spasm of actually making sense, the Texas Legislature passed rules requiring ERCOT to do a better job of winterizing equipment ahead of the cold season.   Plus a ton more giant batteries and wind and solar generating stations have been built in Texas since 2021.  The stored energy in batteries can be a backup if other parts of the grid fail.

 That should help ERCOT manage this cold snap. It's a decent test to see whether green energy can help during severe weather. 

Anyway, the current freeze is still impressive and causing plenty of trouble in Texas. Especially southern and southeastern parts of the state where intense cold is not common.

Record low temperatures were reported around Houston this morning, including 19 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, 21 degrees at Hobby Airport in Houston and 17 in College Station. 

Many schools and business are closed in Houston and around today after ice formed on the city's many highway overpasses and bridges. 

On the bright side, the cold will end quickly in Texas. By Thursday, forecast highs in Dallas are in the mid-50s and Houston should reach the mid-60s. 

Video: Only a little bit of icy on Houston freeways, but what a mess!  Click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that: 

 

Coldest Daytime Temperatures In Vermont In A Generation In Wild Arctic Blast

A National Weather Service meteorologist 
from South Burlington took this amazing shot
of a huge steam devil over Lake Champlain
as they were at a traffic light at the corner
of Main and Prospect in Burlington.

 Quick update this Friday evening, because I'm astonished by how cold it got in Vermont this afternoon. 

Temperatures have been falling all day, going from ridiculous to outrageous. By 5 p.m. it was down to 15 below in Morrisville, minus 18 in Lyndonville and 20 below in Island Pond, Gallup Mills and Lake Eden.  

Even in the Banana Belt of Burlington, the temperature fell from 7 below at noon to 12 below at 5 p.m. 

I haven't had a chance to look up when was the last time it was this cold in the afternoon, but it might well be decades since this has happened. 

The odd thing is, this afternoon and early evening's frigid temperatures won't go into the record books. 

We won't have our coldest high temperatures for this date, because it was in the teens and low 20s just after midnight this morning. That's because the cold front had just barely arrived by midnight. 

Overnight low temperatures tonight will be dangerously cold for sure, but not record breaking. 

The Polar Vortex has sunk into southern Quebec late this afternoon.  Remember, the Polar Vortex is that whirlpool of especially frigid air that sets up in the far northern hemisphere in the winter. Sometimes it sinks oddly south, which it has just done. 

The Polar Vortex should not be in southeastern Quebec and northern Maine, but here we are this evening. But this is a quick hit, and by midnight, this vortex should begin to scoot northeastward away from us.

Which means the core of the coldest air is over us now, and into the first half of the night. 

This fact, and because the wind will continue to blow and keep the air mixed, means we won't get as cold tonight as it could if the Polar Vortex lingered, and stayed over us. 

Yes, most of us will be between 20 and 30 below tonight which is gawd awful. But it won't get as cold as it could, because the air will start modifying late tonight.

I don't think there will be too many record lows, if any, overnight. For instance, the record low today, before midnight in Burlington is 25 below, set in 1971. It won't get there by midnight. 

The record low for Saturday is 26 below in 1963. We won't get there early. 

So, we'll have a truly remarkable February cold snap in Vermont with few, if any records broken.

I'm also impressed by how disruptive this cold snap is. I saw hardly anyone out today. Traffic was light, and any business that was open was having a slow day. 

The extreme temperature difference between the still largely unfrozen Lake Champlain and the air created some very dramatic steam devils over the water all day.

These look like funnel clouds, and the extreme weather made them big. I'll have to see some analysis on this, but some of the steam devils might well have qualified as waterspouts  - tornadoes over water. Some of them appeared to connect with overhead clouds. If that happened, some of these funnels might have qualified as waterspouts. 

All I know is that all afternoon, I could see these funnels from my home office in St. Albans, over the lake. I took video, and others took photos, of some impressive funnels, either giant steam devils or weak waterspouts. 

The bottom line: Today, was a weird, weird day for weather in Vermont. More on this tomorrow morning. 

Video: Scenes from an incredibly cold February day, after an otherwise warm winter. Click on this link to view if you don't see image below, or click on the image if you see it to view.