June Heat Waves In Vermont Never Used To Be Much Of A Thing. Then Climate Change Came Along

A time/temperature sign in St. Albans, Vermont during
 a record breaking heat wave last June 23 

 With the potential of 90 degree weather coming toward the end of the week, depending on how numerous the showers and storms become, I started looking at June heat waves in Vermont. 

Once upon a time, June heat wasn't really a thing. Sure, it happened once in awhile, but we usually had to wait until July and August to feel the big strong blasts of summer heat. 

Not any more. Climate change apparently has something to say about when we Vermonters experience summer heat. 

The year 1988 seemed to be the beginning of a turning point for June heat in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington.  On June 15, 1988, it reached 97 degrees in Burlington, breaking what was then the record for the  hottest June temperature on record. 

On June 16, 1994, that record was tied. Then on June 19, 1995, the temperature in Burlington soared to 100 degrees, shattering the June record.

The number of 90+ days in Burlington's June record books changed during that time period. Ninety degree June heat was relatively rare in the  first four decades of the 20th century. Ninety in June happened only 12 times in the 41 years ending in 1941. 

Between 1942 and 1993, 90 degree June heat became more frequent, occurring in 34 out of those 51 years.  Now, the heat hits in almost all Junes. In the 31 years since 1994, we only missed out on 90 degrees in eight Junes.

Another bit of stats, although I know this is already number heavy: In the 87 years ending in 1987, it had only reached 95 degrees three times in June. In a little less than four decades since 1988, it's been 95 degrees 13 times.  

In the 2000s, extreme June heat almost became the norm.   It's been 96 degrees or hotter in all but one of the past five Junes.  Sometimes June heat started in May.   On May 27, 2000, the temperature reached 95 degrees, the hottest May day on record, breaking the old mark by two degrees 

On June 6, 2021, it reached 95 degrees, and on June 7 that year it was 96 which was, at the time the hottest for so early in the season 

I say "at the time," because on June 1, 2023 it reached 96 degrees. 

All this June heat culminated in a heat wave last June. Depending on what part of New England you were in, either June 23 or June 24, 2025 was the hottest June day on record in all six New England states. Each New England state reached at least 100 degrees.

In North Springfield, Vermont, it was 103 degrees, breaking the previous statewide record for June, which had been 101 degrees. Burlington reached 99 degrees on June 23 last year, barely missing the record for the month by one degree. Plattsburgh, New York, at 101 degrees, was among numerous cities in the Northeast that set all-time June records. 

THIS WEEK

If it gets to 90 degrees this week, I doubt we'll see record highs, but of course you never know. You need lots of sinking, hot air to create the clear skies that produce record heat. Instead, this warm spell will be muddled by embedded weather disturbances. Those disturbances will likely create clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms which could keep the heat down. But not the humidity, of course.

The details: 

Today: Nice! Near 80 degrees, sunny low humidity

Tuesday: Nice! Sunny, with highs in the 80s. Humidity will at least be reasonably.

Wednesday Not so nice. Showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Cloudy, turning more humid. Highs in the 70s to around 80

Thursday/Friday: Partly cloudy, humid, risk of showers/storms. Highs in the 80s to near 90.

Beyond Friday, the weather models are still arguing among themselves as to what's going to happen. I'll let them fight it out, and provide updates as we get closer to next weekend. It's only Monday, after all. 

I don't know whether we will have extreme heat later this month or not, But climate change has loaded the dice. These are no longer your grandfather's cool, comfortable Vermont summers. 

 

Will Lake Champlain Freeze Over This Winter

There was still a lot of open water on Lake Champlain
 as of Sunday as this photo shows. But an expected
long, intense cold spell could eventually make
the lake freeze over for the first time since 2019.

 We've got a LOT of cold air headed toward the eastern United States, including here in Vermont. 

That frigid air looks like it might last quite awhile, too. Does this mean Lake Champlain will freeze over? Possibly, if the chill lasts long enough. 

If Lake Champlain does completely freeze over, it'll be the first time it's happened since 2019. In 2022, it came this close to freezing entirely, but there was always at least aa small hole of open water in the lake that winter. 

As of Sunday the huge expanse of the broad lake was ice-free. Bays, estuaries and coves were frozen, as they almost always are this time of year. But even inside Burlington's breakwater, there was no ice. After a warmish early January, we'll need a brutally long cold wave to ice over this lake. 

Such a cold wave seems to be a distinct possibility. 

It's not at all odd to have open water in Lake Champlain during mid-January.   Typically, if the lake turns into wall to wall ice, it doesn't happen until the very end of January or in February. There's been a few years in which the lake didn't freeze until March.

There's Lake Champlain freeze over data dating all the way back to 1816. But back in the 1800s and early 1900s, there were no planes flying over the lake to confirm it was entirely frozen. I imagine some historic "freeze overs" were actually only close, but no cigar.

After 1930, I could only find two years - 1977 and 1981 - in which the freeze over hit before today's date. 

If the lake doesn't freeze over this year, it would tie the record for most consecutive years of winter open water on the lake. The only other time six years went by without a complete freeze over was 2008-13.

Climate change is making it harder to freeze Lake Champlain. Since 2000, the lake has only frozen over eight times. It used to be more frequent than that before the world started substantially warming up

COLD FORECAST

The eastern third of the United States will be taking a break from that climate change warmth over the coming days and weeks. 

This will be a widespread, intense cold wave stretching from the northern Plains to New England and down into the northern Gulf Coast states. 

Locally here in Vermont, it still looks like most of this week won't be that bad. It'll certainly be cooler than the weekend was, but still pretty reasonable for a Vermont January. 

We'll get an initial taste of the cold tonight through tomorrow night. Highs Tuesday will only be in the teens, and it'll get close to zero in some towns Tuesday night .

Lake effect snows will go gangbusters this week
with an area south of Watertown, New York
expecting three to four feet of snow by Wednesday.

We'll briefly warm into the 20s for highs Wednesday and Thursday before the bottom drops out of everyone's thermometers.

In Vermont, and throughout the Northeast, it'll be an old fashioned cold wave. 

By that I mean it will be reminiscent of the long Arctic spells we used to see in the 1970s.  In recent decades, intense cold snaps were hit and run affairs. They'd blast in with their intense chill, then with a day or two, it was over.

This one looks to arrive this coming Friday and last perhaps for nearly a week. That means a long stretch of "high" temperatures near 0 or, if we're lucky the single numbers above zero. Each night will go below zero with some of those nights far below zero. Like teens and 20s below

At least that's the way it looks as of this morning. There are always changes to the forecast as we get closer to an event, and this is no exception. 

Frigid weather regimes like the one we're entering are usually quite dry, and that will be the case here. Remember, warm air can hold a lot of moisture. Bitter cold air holds very little. So, at most, we expect a few snow flurries from time to time in the valleys, and slightly heavier snow showers in the mountains. 

The next chance for any accumulating snow is when the cold front introducing the super cold air approaches us toward the end of the week. There's a chance of a few heavier snow showers or snow squalls around Thursday, but we're not too sure about that yet. Even that would only give us an inch or two of snow. 

The exception to the very little snow rule will be downwind from the Great Lakes. 

In New York, Lake Ontario will help produce the biggest monster snows. The infamous Tug Hill region south of Watertown could have four feet of new snow by Wednesday morning. 

Lake Erie freezes over more quickly than Lake Ontario, because it's much shallower. Since ice is forming on Lake Erie, the snow belts south of Buffalo, New York won't be quite as bad as the Tug Hill region. Still, up to two feet of snow could come down in areas near Lake Erie.

I don't have any information yet on how the lake effect snows will work when the real cold air arrives next weekend. 

I don't see any signs of any balmy weather coming to the Northeast anytime soon. The best I can give you is that the chill might ease off somewhat by the time we get into February. 

 

2025 Was World's Third Warmest; Past Three Years In Top 3 Hottest

 Scientists confirmed this week that 2025 was the world's third hottest year since at least 1850. 

World temperatures compared to the long term 
average since 1850.  As you can see, virtually the
whole world was warmer than that average in 2025.
The blob of white in the Pacific Ocean represents
La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world
a bit, but didn't last year. The white blob
south of Greenland represents melt water from
that ice cap, which keeps the North Atlantic cooler,

As NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI tells us, 2025 was 1.17 degrees Celsius, or 2.11 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. Last year just barely missed tying 2023 as the second hottest year, missing it by 0.02 degrees Celsius or 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit.

At the start of 2025, climatologists said they expected the year to end up cooler than the previous two because a La Nina pattern had taken over for most of the year. La Ninas tend to cool the Earth slightly. 

That 2025 was a La Nina year and still ranked as third hottest is worrisome, since climate change clearly overwhelmed the expected cooling.

NCEI added that it's now becoming routine for years to end up warmer than the 20th century average by more than 1 degree Celsius:

"Notably, the 10 warmest years in the 176-year record have all occurred since 2015. Of the 10 warmest years on record, former record-holders 2015 and 2016 have dropped to eighth and fourth place, respectively. While 2016 was the first year to exceed the 1.0 degrees C threshold, that benchmark has since been surpassed in 2020 and again in the last three consecutive years (2023-25)."

Another benchmark the NCEI noted was oceanic heat content. In 2025 it was the highest on record, breaking the record set the year before. In fact, 2025 was the fifth year in a row in which oceanic heat content hit record highs.

This is important, since more than 90 percent of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the ocean. This extra heat content becomes fuel that would further bolster future global warming, and can create more intense storms than a cooler ocean would.  Hotter water also expands, which exacerbates sea level rise. 

NCEI also broke down the 2025 climate year in review into continents. 2025 was North America's fourth warmest year. Nine of the continent's ten warmest years have happened since 2006. The rate of warming in North America was 0.15 degrees Celsius per decade in much of the 20th century. Since 1981, that warming rate has more than doubled to 0.34 degrees Celsius per decade. 

Europe had its second warmest year on record. Asia was third warmest, South America was sixth warmest and Africa was seventh warmest.  The Arctic region had its second warmest year and Antarctica had it fourth warmest year in 2025.

Sources other than NCEI helped give a fuller picture of the extraordinary global warmth of 2025. Per Yale Climate Connections:

"According to Berkeley Earth, 9.1 percent of the Earth's surface had a record-warm year, including 10.6 percent of land areas and 8.3 percent of ocean areas. They estimated that 770 million people - 8.5 percent of Earth's population - experienced a locally warm annual average in 2025, The largest population centers affected by record warmth in 2025 were mostly in Asia, including about 450 million people in China."

Carbon Brief added these stats to the 2025 mix: 

Sea levels reached record highs in 2025, and sea level rise has accelerated noticeably in the past three decades. 

Cumulative ice loss from the world's glaciers and from the Greenland ice sheet reached a new record high in 2025, contributing to sea level rise. 

Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached record high levels in 2025.

Arctic sea ice saw its lowest winter peak on record and its 10th lowest summer minimum extent. Sea ice around Antarctica  reached its third lowest summer minimum extent. 

PREDICTIONS

The New Year has barely begun but experts are saying 2026 will bring us no relief from the recent climate changed-heat. 

Carbon Brief is saying 2026 will be the second, third or fourth warmest on record, very similar to the temperatures we saw in 2023 and 2025. 

Lingering La Nina might suppress temperatures a little in the opening months of the year, but an expected El Nino later in the year might bring 2026 to a hot finish, says the folks at Carbon Brief.

The Met Office in the UK is also saying 2026 will be among the top four warmest on record, and they're leaning toward this year being the second warmest year, coming in a bit cooler than the record holder 2024.

Berkeley Earth says the odds favor 2026 coming in at #4 on hottest year list, giving it a 51 percent chance of that happening. The odds that 2026 would come in 3rd place is 12 percent,; 2nd place 21 percent.  They give 2026 a 10 percent chance that this year will be the hottest on record. The chances that this year will be merely the fifth warmest or cooler are just 6 percent, according to Berkeley Earth. 

If you look at a chart of how each year's temperature compares to other years, you see that the world began warming rapidly at around 1980. 

But the past three years have been way, way hotter than anything seen before. Nations and regulators,  especially in Asia and in the world shipping industry have cut aerosol pollutants in recent years. These new environmental rules have allowed more sun to heat the Earth, since air pollution is blocking less of it. 

That could at least partly explain why the past three years have been so out whack with the heat. The question now is, will this much faster pace of warming that started in 2023 continue or will it level off a bit? Nobody knows for sure, but the question is important.

It's bad enough that the world has been warming so fast since the 1980s. If we've entered a new, faster pace of climate change, we're definitely not ready for it.  

Editor's Note: We'll soon do a followup post on how the United States did with climate in 2025, including an extraordinarily hot December in the western United States

First North Country Frost Advisories Of The Season Tonight

Summer is definitely over!

A chilly looking sunset Sunday evening over Georgia,
Vermont introduced us to a cool spell that brings a 
risk of frost tonight to the coldest hollows of 
northern Vermont, New York and New Hampshire.
The vast majority of us will avoid any frost.

A few places in and near Vermont might get a little frost tonight. Essex County, in the far northeast corner of the Green Mountain State is under a frost advisory overnight tonight through the hours around dawn Tuesday. 

So are the Adirondacks in New York. And Coos County in far northern New Hampshire. 

In those places, it could get down into the low to mid 30s in some place so sensitive plants there should be brought inside or covered. 

For the rest of us, don't worry. It will be the chilliest night so far this season region wide, but the tomatoes and such in your gardens should be safe for now. 

Most of us will bottom out between 38 and 45 degrees, with a few upper 40s to near 50 right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

Frosts and even solid freezes in the cold spots is not at all unusual around here this time of year. The National Weather Service this morning put out a list of earliest and latest autumn frost dates in selected cities around here. 

The earliest 32 degree temperature in Burlington was on September 13, 1964.  Burlington won't come remotely close to breaking that record tonight. Their forecast low Tuesday morning is 45 degrees. 

Montpelier's earliest freeze on record was on August 31, 1965.  

Remarkably, at least to me, the earliest 32 degree reading on record in Rutland and Woodstock was on August 25, 1940, which seems incredibly early. I looked it up and that 1940 August cold spell was something. St. Johnsbury endured four consecutive mornings in the 30s from August 25-28 that year. 

It will probably get to 32 degrees early Tuesday morning over in Saranac Lake, New York. It was 34 degrees there this morning, and that mountain cold spot has had frosts every month of the year. 

You might think it odd we're talking about frost tonight on a day when afternoon temperatures will ve way up in the 60s.   But it will be perfect night for it to cool off. Light winds, clear skies and very dry air is the exact recipe you need for temperatures to plunge after sunset. 

THE WEEK AHEAD

After the showers of the past few days, it's back to drought. And generally cool, sunny weather for the foreseeable future. 

We felt the winds of autumn yesterday, for sure. The last in a series of cold fronts came through in the afternoon.  The accompanying light showers and stiff wind gusts brought temperatures down into the low 60s by mid afternoon. 

Strong, dry highs pressure is taking control, so the sun will shine brightly today through the rest of the week. 

After those 60s for high temperatures today, it will warm up a little with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and well into the 70s, with some upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the dry air, nights will still be chilly - mostly in the 40s all week, with 50s in milder, broad valleys. 

Since the nights will be so cool, overall temperatures this week will come out a little cooler than average for this part of September. 

A new cold front should arrive Thursday or Thursday night to reinforce the autumnal air. I see maybe another frost risk for the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks early Friday and Saturday mornings. It should start to warm up slightly next weekend. 

DROUGHT REASSERTS

Notice I haven't mentioned rain yet.  As I keep saying the drought goes on. And it will start to get worse again. Plenty of sunshine and rock bottom humidity will dry things out quickly. The only moisture we'll see until at least Saturday will be the patchy fog that usually forms in river valleys this time of year. 

We might or might not see a weak disturbance blast down from Quebec Saturday and that, I suppose, could give us a few light showers or sprinkles if it aims at us just right. 

But that pattern of one big, fat, dry high pressure system after another lumbering slowly across our region looks like it might pretty much continue all month. 

It looks like it might end up being a pretty dusty autumn. 

Is A Flash Drought Looming In Vermont/New England?

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor suddenly has
much of Vermont designated as "abnormally dry"
shown in areas shaded in yellow.
Abnormally dry can be a precursor to drought.

 Back in late May and early June, when everything was ultra soggy after weeks of rain, who among you thought that by early August we'd be on the verge of a drought.  

Well, here we are. The faucets from the sky have mostly shut off. Given the weather forecast, we're now at risk for what is known as a flash drought.

HOW FLASH DROUGHTS WORK

A flash drought is akin to a flash flood, although it obviously has the opposite effect.

As we know, a flash flood comes at you in a matter of minutes, turning placid brooks into raging torrents instantaneously. 

A flash drought isn't nearly that fast, but it's a lot quicker than a "traditional" drought, which usually takes months to build into something problematic. A flash drought develops within weeks.  

The Northeast had a flash drought late last summer and fall, which culminated in numerous forest fires, especially in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.

We were doing fine with ground water and such most of this year, especially given our wet spring and early summer. 

But during July, the rains began to falter. Now that we're into August, most of us are dry, aside from local downpours that have continued on and off, giving a very few of us a welcome, wet break. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, shows abnormal dryness popping up in several areas around New England and northern New York. 

 Under the Drought Monitor's terminology, "abnormally dry" doesn't mean you're in a drought, but if it doesn't rain soon, you will be.  

Last week, no area of Vermont was regarded as "abnormally dry." This week 72 percent of the state wins that designation. Only most of the Champlain Valley and parts of southern Vermont are still OK.

MOSTLY DRY, HOT FORECAST

If there is a Vermont drought developing, the next few days will certainly encourage it. 

Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Hazy, very warm, sunshine. Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms will pop up, fade, and then redevelop only to fade again.

At least 70 percent of us, if  not more, will see no rain today, or just a trifling sprinkle. A few towns could up to a quick half inch or more of rain. Or I should say, parts of some towns. The storms are so small that the north side of a particular community could get drenched while the south side stays dusty. 

The thunderstorms the formed yesterday acted like that. At least part of Middlebury got drenched by a local late afternoon storm while communities just to the north and south heard a few distant rumbles of thunder, then continued to water their wilting gardens. . 

A thunderstorm that appeared to be briefly severe blew up near Richmond/Jonesville shortly before 6 p.m. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington warned of 60 mph winds and large hail. Meanwhile, nearby Williston got no rain, 

Typical of our current weather pattern, the intense looking storm quickly faded to nothing without moving from its original position, . 

Today will be the "coolest" day for the next week. Highs will get well into the 80s. 

Weekend/Next Week

The potential flash drought will continue to build. It will stay hot and kind of humid Saturday through probably Tuesday, and pretty much rain-free. After that, it will probably stay very warm to hot, with only scattered rains. 

Here in Vermont, it's an official heat wave if you get three days in a row that reach 90 degrees or more. We should easily do that.  Some place could see four, five, or even six consecutive 90 degree days coming up.    

When it's dry, temperatures often get a little warmer than forecast.  When the ground is wet, some of the sun's energy goes into evaporation instead of heating the atmosphere. Drier conditions encourage the sun to heat the air more.

Temperatures have already started over-performing and we're just getting started. The forecast high yesterday in Burlington was 83 and it got to 87.  So, there's a chance the the forecast highs over the next few days might be even warmer than you're seeing here. 

The forecast high in Burlington today is 87, which makes sense, since we're doing a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The prediction for Saturday is 88 degrees in Burlington. But it could hit 90, I think, since there will be fewer clouds, and the atmosphere will have warmed some.

Then, the National Weather Service has highs Sunday through next Thursday as follows:  91,94,94,90,89.

As you can see, there's a chance  of six consecutive days of 90 or more running Saturday through Thursday. If it does, it will be only the eighth time in the past 130 years or so there were that many consecutive hot days in Burlington. 

 Three of the previous seven such streaks have occurred just since 2018, demonstrating how climate change has made it easier for big hot spells to invade. 

The offshore high pressure is so strong it will suppress the updrafts needed to form the usual summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very few if any will get going this weekend and early next week. 

A cold front I previously mentioned possibly arriving later next Tuesday is probably going to be a no-show. Or if it does get here, it will be later, probably toward Wednesday or Thursday, and it will be far from impressive.

It could create some scattered thunderstorms, and drop temperatures slightly. All that will hit roughly a week from now, so the forecast is iffy and will probably change. But the bottom line is, we're in for some hot times for quite awhile 

A Memorial Day Relief From The Vermont Rain. At Least For Now

The sun shines Sunday morning on this St. Albans
lilac blossom for the first time in days. The leaves
and flowers were still wet from week of rainy weather
A welcome break in the weather starts in earnest today.

After a month that feels like it was designed by someone named Sasha Royale Payne Diaz (sound it out), we're getting a break in the weather, just in time for Memorial Day.  

The sun will be out pretty much all day. Sure, a few clouds will hide the sun from time to time, but those clouds will be mostly sky decoration, not a menace.

Given that it is May, 2025, there's still a remote chance of an isolated shower. But anyone unlucky enough to receive them will only get a very short, light dousing of rain. 

Even better, Tuesday and Wednesday look great, too!  Enjoy it, because it's back to the showery grind on Thursday. 

More on that in a bit 

MEMORIAL DAY CLIMATOLOGY/HISTORY

After a  morning low this morning of 45 degrees, the high temperature today in Burlington is forecast to be 70.  That's a little cooler than the average of a low of 50 and a high of 71, but it's pretty close. 

As always, every year brings different weather to the Memorial Day table. Some of the past Memorial Day extremes, as follows, come from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

Hottest: 92 degrees, May 30, 1929.

Coldest: 28 degrees, May 30, 1961

Coldest high temperature 47 degrees, May 26, 1930

Rainiest: 1.60 inches on May 30, 1916.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, the worst Memorial Day weather came on May 30, 1884. Snow fell on the state, accumulating to two inches in Lunenburg. In Randolph, snow covered the flowers that had been placed on veterans' gravestones. 

Last year's Memorial Day brought us a warm, windy day.  It was so windy - gusts exceeded 40 mph - that there were about 2,800 power outages in northwest Vermont. A wind-driven brush fire broke out along Route 2 in Colchester and South Hero, but it was quickly contained by firefighters, along with a well-timed shower that arrived as firefighters were getting a handle on the blaze.  

Those rain showers turned heavy in the evening, dumping 0.82 inches of rain on Burlington, So last Memorial Day's weather was active. This year, not so much, which is a huge blessing. 

Given the finally sunny weather and the fact that it's the unofficial start of the summer season, the temptation is there to go to the beach or take your boat onto the water.

Be aware the water is still extremely cold this early in the season. Hypothermia can quickly set in if you flip out of your kayak or canoe in the lake. At the very least, wear a life jacket. 

Also note that Vermont river and streams are running high with swift, unpredictable currents from all the rain we've gotten, so it's easy for kayaks to flip over on those rivers, and then the kayak and the person in the water can quickly get swept downstream. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has gone so far as to issue a special weather statement warning of the cold water dangers

Maybe wait until later in the summer when the water is warmer and hopefully calmer?

RETURN TO SHOWERS

Pesky upper level lows this month kept stalling in or near New England.  Those provided the seemingly endless  days of damp, showery cold.

Guess what? Another such upper low will set up later this week. That means showery weather again starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend, 

It won't rain all the time, but there will always be a good chance that it will. It's hard to time out precisely when it will rain each day, but the showers and possibly garden variety thundershowers will be most likely in the afternoons and evenings. 

This upper low will bring temperatures back below normal, but it won't be nearly as cold as the last episode, which kept daytime readings in the 40s across parts of Vermont for five out of the six days between May 19-24.

This time around, daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s to near 70 Thursday through  Sunday, instead of the normal mid-70s for early June. 

The upcoming rain should be light, and not nearly enough to set off any flooding. 

Getting Ready To Enter The Last Vermont Spring Frost Countdown

Leaves on a white ash tree in Huntington, Vermont were
left wilted and black after a late season freeze on
May 18, 2023.  However, most recent years in
Vermont have featured earlier and earlier
last spring freezes of the season. 

 It's possible -though unlikely - that warmer spots in Vermont like parts of the Champlain Valley, have seen their last spring frost of the season. 

I say unlikely, because the average date of the last spring frost in Burlington is May 6.  We're defining frost here as a temperature of 32 degrees or lower.

You can still get light frosts at temperatures above 32 degrees, but it's easiest to compare and contrast using that 32 degree reading. 

In Burlington, the latest frost on record was an epic one on May 31, 1961 which sent the temperature all the way down to 25 degrees at the airport in South Burlington.

That 1961 brought temperatures into the low and 20s statewide, with a couple upper teens reported causing exceptionally bad crop damage and turning early summer foliage a depressing brown. That historic freeze caused $500,000 in Vermont crop damage, which corrected for inflation would be more than $5.3 million in today's dollars.

 On the other hand, way back in 1898, the last frost in Burlington was on April 7, the earliest final frost of they season on record. 

If Burlington ended up having its last freeze of the season on April 21 this year (a big if), that would be the earliest last freeze since April 17, 2019.   

The last frost of the spring has been trending earlier than the long term average in recent years and decades, thanks at least in part to climate change. In the last two decades, Burlington's final frost of the spring has come later than the May 6  only five times. 

EARLIER SPRING DANGERS

The fact that we are having earlier springs because of that climate change is making what used to be nearly harmless early to mid-May frosts and freezes more dangerous and damaging. That's because the more intense spring warmth of recent years and decades causes plants to sprout much earlier than they used to. 

A harsh May 18, 2023 freeze caused damage similar to that of that end of May freeze back in 1961, In the 2023 freeze, Vermont suffered extensive damage and losses to crops of apples, grapes, strawberries and other produce. Damage in the Green Mountain State was estimated at a whopping $10 million. 

This year, spring plant growth is running on the early side once again, but not as early as it did in 2023 and several other recent years. That could well save us from damaging freezes this year, unless we get an errant harsh freeze, say, after May 10 or 15.  

Which is always possible. Because generally, we've gotten warmer, but extremes have gotten more, well, extreme, so we could be prone to major temperatures gyrations. 

For the record, there are no hard freezes in the forecast at least through the next week and likely beyond. 

ELSEWHERE IN VERMONT

Elsewhere in Vermont, spring freezes of course come later than in the Banana Belt Champlain Valley. 

Up in St. Johnsbury, the average date of the last spring frost is May 20. But it has gotten to 32 degrees there as late as June 20, 1918.

June, 1918 was remarkably cold in Vermont in a remarkably chilly year. It was 35 degrees in Burlington that June 20, and the city endured 11 days in a row between June 13 and 23 in which the low temperature was below 50 degrees. 

Most other areas of Vermont have had June frosts in the past. Even Burlington has come close, with temperatures of 33 degrees in the Junes of 1924 and 1986. 

Montpelier has had a freeze as late as June 6, 1964. 

Other areas of Vermont tend to have much later spring frosts than the Champlain Valley, The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom have had frost every month of the year. 

In the cold valley of Island Pond, deep in the Northeast Kingdom, the latest "spring" frost was on July 2, 1992. Yep, right before the Fourth of July weekend. 

There was a teeny-tiny ice age of sorts going on in 1992. Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in June, 1991, spewing so much sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere that it temporarily interrupted global warming and cooled the Earth by almost a full degree for a little over a year. 

That does't sound like much, but such a drop is impressive.

So unless there's another enormous volcanic eruption somewhere on Earth, the chances of summer or late spring frosts in Vermont are becoming more and more remote. 

Overall, even though the last spring freezes of the season are tending to come later and later, I'd still obey those old rules about planting your gardens outside. I'd still wait until around Memorial Day or so to put the tomato plants outdoors, for instance. 

Another Snowy Vermont April Morning Underway; But Compare To Some Aprils, This Is Easy

Traffic cam grab from Route 11 in Winhall, a high 
elevation town in southern Vermont, shows 
seemingly midwinter conditions early this morning. 

 So far early this morning, the April snow in Vermont is working out about as forecast.

A band of at least moderate intensity snow had moved into far southern Vermont at dawn and was pushing northward. 

It was a really wet snow, especially in the valleys, as temperatures as it snowed were around 33 or 34 degrees. It's piling up more quickly up in the slightly chillier hills and mountains. 

As it is, we do see snow covered roads, especially in higher elevations of southern Vermont this morning. 

So you might want to be careful if you're traveling around the southern half of the state today. Especially if you're headed for the hills.

We might see a few scattered power outages, too ,as the wet snow piles up on trees and power lines that criss cross along higher mountain roads. 

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for the southern half of Vermont, except for the western portions of Rutland and Addison counties, which will get little snow out of this. People in the advisory area can expect two to six inches of sloppy snow, the most in the mountains, of course. 

The main show with this storm will be this morning in southern Vermont. Bursts of moderate snow will continue, but later today, the band of precipitation will head north, leaving behind a gloomy afternoon of light rain showers, with some wet snowflakes in the high elevations 

As impressive as this band of snow and some rain looks on radar, it's still expected to fade as it works its way northward today. Pretty much everybody in Vermont will see some rain and snow today, but it will be pretty light and inconsequential up by the Canadian border.

It still might be cold enough to snow - especially  above 1,000 feet in elevation in central and parts of northern Vermont, but that will only amount to a coating to a slushy inch most places. It'll be close, but it looks like any light rain in the Champlain Valley probably won't mix with any snow. But no promises. 

In the grand scheme of things, this isn't a blockbuster snowstorm. It's April, so you'd think we'd avoid the Big Ones, but not necessarily. 

 If you're not happy with today's snow, it could have been worse. Much worse.

APRIL SNOWS COMMON

Could be worse. After a warm April in which trees 
started leafing out, more than a foot of snow fell
on St. Albans, Vermont, causing severe tree
damage and widespread power outages in
town and across northern Vermont. 

We have many, many examples of Vermont Aprils that were much snowier than this year. A cold, gusty snowstorm dumped 10 to 20 inches of snow on southern Vermont on April 6-7, 1982. 

A year after that, on April 16-17, 1983, a snowstorm dumped 15.6 inches of snow on Burlington.

 Then it kept snowing off and on for five days after that. That month ended up with 21.3 inches of snow in Burlington, the snowiest April on record.

An almost identical storm to 1983 hit in April, 2000, depositing a four-day total of 19.1 inches of snow on Burlington. 

Even unusually warm Aprils can get snowy. April 2010 featured record highs in the low 80s early in the month. Then on April April 27-28, 10 to as much as 23 inches of snow fell across northern Vermont. In the valleys, the trees were already starting to leaf out due to the early spring. As a result, the wet snow caused a lot of tree damage and many power outages. 

Then, just four days after that snow ended, temperatures rose into the low and mid 80s.

April and early May can really be fickle, huh?

By the way, this month's snow has been mostly avoiding Burlington. So there, at least, April snowfall this year will be below normal. So far only 0.4 inches of snow has fallen this April in Burlington. Normal snowfall for the month is 4.1 inches. 

It's also nearly impossible to get through a Vermont April without snow, even in the Champlain Valley. In the past 140 years or so, only two Aprils - 1941 and 2005 - have gone by in Burlington without so much as a snow flurry. 

And in 1941, there were snow flurries on May 1 and 2 in Burlington. 

END TO THE SNOW?

There is light at the end of the snow tunnel, so to speak.  The end of the snowy regime this April is coming but we'll have to wait several days for Vermont to fully escape the flakes. 

It will warm up briefly on Monday before we get hit by another cold snap later Tuesday and Wednesday. That one still looks like it will spit out some more snow showers, especially north.  The Tuesday night/Wednesday thing at this point looks a little bit similar to a week earlier, when the northern Green Mountains received several inches of snow.

This next one doesn't look quite as impressive as last week's, but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few inches of  additional snow in the mountains by Wednesday. 

Now, on to tthat hopefully snow-free future: After next Wednesday, I'm still not seeing signs of a big springlike warm up. I also see frequent chances of inclement weather through the end of the month. But, fingers crossed! It looks like each little storm to close out the month will come as your standard April showers, not late season snow blitzes.  

Then again, I can't tell you how things will work out in May.  I have seen it snow in May, so there's that. 

Snow Maybe Even On Vermont Valley Floors Tonight, Maybe Icy Spots On A Few Roads?

The National Weather Service is predicting a bit of snow
in Vermont tonight, even on valley floors. 

 We just might have our first real bout with winter in Vermont tonight. 

True, it won't be much of a bout, but there could be a little snow accumulation. Even on some valley floors. 

The whole thing is a little jab to remind us winter is on the way, despite the never ending summer we've kind of had this autumn

Tonight's expected snow will be unlike our lovely snoliage we had in mid-October, which missed valleys but dumped up to a foot of snow on the summits.

Nobody in Vermont will get much snow tonight, but valley floors in central and northern Vermont could see a thin dusting to a half inch, while the highest elevations will clock in with up to two inches.

THE SETUP

If you went outside today, you know how blustery and chilly it was. Temperatures were only in the 40s to near 50, and winds gusting to 30 mph made it feel chillier.

Those broken clouds you saw all day were thickening up late this afternoon, and some sprinkles were already coming down in spots. Those sprinkles were snow flurries in the mountains. I already noticed a dusting of snow on the ground in the traffic cams along high elevation Route 242 in Westfield.

A disturbance is coming in from the west, which is adding to the moisture in the air. That will increase the showers this evening. The air is too dry to produce anything heavy, but most places in the northern half of Vermont will see things get damp.

Meanwhile, a new cold front is pressing in from southern Quebec. The chilly air with this thing will change the rain to snow in many places, including valleys. 

You'll actually need to watch it if you're driving tonight, especially in high elevations. It's going to get below freezing pretty fast later tonight, and there could actually be a couple icy patches here and there. 

It's a reminder to get your snow tires on if you haven't already. 

Screen grab from a traffic camera along high elevation
Route 242 in Westfield, Vermont late this afternoon
showed a bit of snow on the ground already.

Skies will clear in the pre-dawn hours, and we'll have the coldest morning of the autumn so far. Everybody will be in the 20s. A hard freeze. It's probably not worth trying to rescue anything still growing in the garden this time. 

There might even be some upper teens in the cold hollows of the north. 

IN PERSPECTIVE 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is actually going with an uncertain forecast of 0.2 inches of snow in Burlington. If that happens, it will be the first measurable October snow there since 2011, when 0.1 inch fell on October 30 that year.

If Burlington gets just a trace, that will be a little late, since the average date of the first flurries there is October 15. Still, with our recent run of warm autumns, if Burlington gets a few snow flurries tonight, that will be the first October snow since 2020.

OUTLOOK

This bout with quote, unquote winter won't last long. Monday will turn out to be a bright, sunshiny day with much lighter winds. Highs will only be in the 40s, which is definitely cooler than average for this time of year. But the sun and lack of wind will make it feel nicer than it did today.

After another cold night Monday night, a sharp warm up is in store and we might be looking at record warmth by Wednesday and Thursday. 

More on that in a post I'm planning to write up Monday morning. 

A Few Odd Warm Twists In Vermont's Gorgeous Autumn Weather Streak

Can't resist more photos of Mount Mansfield covered in
white Wednesday with autumn foliage in the valley
below. Snow is rapidly melting up there mow as
warmer air moves in. 

 We're still in the midst of a stretch of perfect autumn weather in Vermont, and I've extended the gorgeous weather warning that I unofficially issued through Sunday has now been extended to Tuesday. 

The snow on the mountain summits is rapidly melting, so the snoliage will fade, but the autumn colors remain, especially in warmer valleys.  The autumn leaves are once again lingering later in the season than they once did a few decades ago. 

One of the reasons why the snow is disappearing so fast up on the tops of the mountains is a temperature inversion. That happens at night very often this time of year.  This morning's was a doozy. 

The overall air mass is fairly warm, but clear skies and light winds allow any heat to dissipate off into space, and what cold air there is drains into the valleys. 

These inversions can sometimes create a low overcast, but the air is so dry we don't have to worry about that.  Some fog formed in the river valleys, as is usual for this time of year, but that burned off not long after sunrise. 

The weird thing is, it was damn warm up on the summits before dawn today. While pretty much everybody in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley had yet another frost/freeze this morning, it was beach weather up high.

Whiteface Mountain, New York, which had 15 inches of snow in the past week, was sitting at 50 degrees at around 2 a.m.  Mount Washington, New Hampshire, known of its extreme cold and even more extreme wind speeds, was sitting at 48 degrees at 5 a.m. with winds howling at a whopping speed of (checks notes) just 6 mph. 

I don't have any good observations for Vermont's Green Mountain summits early this morning, but I know it's warm up there.

With sunrise, the inversion mixed out and we'll go back to the normal routine of valleys being warmer than the mountains. By Saturday afternoon, most weather stations in Vermont were pretty uniformly in the mid and upper 60s.

By late afternoon, Mount Washington was still in the mid-40s with winds of 32 mph.  Very mild for them, but at least it was less topsy-turvy than this morning.

THAT WARM AIR

And warm it will be. 

One more snoliage shot from Wednesday as seen
in Underhill, Vermont. 

The big, fat high pressure system giving us this great weather is repositioning itself to allow balmy air to flow up from the southwest. 

Today and tomorrow should reach well into the 60s, maybe touch 70 in a few spots.  Nights will be turning warmer, too.  So after tonight, when frost might well form in some valleys again, we're done with that for a few days.  

The warmth will intensify early next week, as many places will get into the 70s. Maybe even mid and upper 70s. That gets pretty close to record highs for this time of year.

The record highs in Burlington Monday through Wednesday are 76, 81 and 78 degrees.  We'll watch and see how close we come.

Speaking of 70 degree weather, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says we might at least tie the record for most days in a single year that reached 70 degrees. In 2021, we had 144 days that got to at least 70.

So far this year, we're up to 140 such days. We could easily score four more 70 degree days in this stretch.

Burlington this year has also tied the record for most days that reached 80 degrees. We're even with 2016, which had 85 such days. There's a very low, but not zero chance we could break this record early next week. 

These records are just another manifestation of how warm 2024 has been so far.  Through yesterday, we're still on pace for the warmest year on record, as measured at the airport in South Burlington. 

If this year ends up being in the top ten warmest, which seems very likely, it will be the fifth consecutive year that will be in the top ten warmest list as measured in the Burlington area. 

Astoundingly Long, Intense Phoenix Heat Wave Ends, Meteorologists, Climatologists Agog

Phoenix, Arizona just came out of what was very likely
the most extreme, longest lasting heat wave relative to
average temperatures on record anywhere in the U.S.

The high temperature in Phoenix, Arizona reached 99 degrees on Tuesday, not a record high.

That ended an incredible streak of 21 consecutive days with record high temperatures in that city.  Such a long streak of daily record highs has never been seen before in any weather station with at least a few decades of data. Not even close.  

Meteorologists and climatologists were stunned by the length of this intense hot spell. The just ended hot spell is likely by far the most extreme heat wave relative to average temperatures on record anywhere in the U.S.

A streak like that had been considered impossible. As I noted in an October 5 post about the intense autumn heat wave in the Southwest, the longest consecutive day streak of record highs anywhere in the U.S. had been 14 days in Burlington, Iowa on July 4-17, 1936. Those were the famous old Dust Bowl days.  

The 117 degrees in Phoenix on September 28 was the hottest on record for that month. Setting a September record at the end of the month is even more incredible since you would be expecting the desert heat to be simmering down after Labor Day.

That's especially true since the 117 degree reading broke the old record for the month by nine degrees.  It's very rare for a monthly record to break an old record by more than two degrees. 

Phoenix also set a new record high for October on two days - the 1st and 6th with readings on both days of 113 degrees.  That also shattered the old monthly record by a huge margin of six degrees.

Until this year, it had never reached 110 degrees in Phoenix after September 19.  This year, it was at least 110 degrees on nine days after September 19, the most recent on October 7. 

Relief has come to Phoenix in the form of a pretty aggressive autumn chilly snap. The forecast high on Friday there is only 78 degrees, and showers were actually likely. Saturday looks even cooler, with highs in Phoenix only expected to reach the low to mid 70s.  

Saturday's expected high could threaten a record for the lowest maximum temperature for the date. So that's quite a turnaround. 

Temperatures are expected to rebound into the 90s in Phoenix next week, but at least it won't be in the 100s. again.  Normal highs in Phoenix this time of year are in the upper 80s. 

I'm sure the increase in development, pavement and concrete contributes to the increasing heat in Phoenix. But so does climate change. This heat wave was so far off the charts that observers are saying this would have been impossible without climate change. 

These heat waves are increasingly afflicting Phoenix as they are many other cities globally.  For instance, July, 2023 was the hottest month on record in Phoenix, July, 2024 was merely the second hottest. All of Phoenix's top five hottest Junes, Julys, Augusts and Septembers have occurred since 2003.

Records in Phoenix go back to 1895.  

Was Chilly In Vermont This Morning But Nothing Compared To Pre-Climate Change

Don't worry, this was NOT my garden this morning. But,
as forecast, a couple of the coldest hollows probably
had frost this morning. In the past, we've had colder
weather than this in early September. 

 By any measure, it was definitely cooler than average in Vermont his morning. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 30 degrees just after 6 a.m. 

As of this 6:30 a.m. writing, I'm not sure whether any frost developed in the Northeast Kingdom, as it's too early to get temperature reports from that area. 

Elsewhere, pretty much every in Vermont started the day in the upper 30s to mid 40s, just as had been forecast. 

At last check around 6 a.m. Burlington was down to 46 degrees, the coolest it's been since June 16. It was 43 degrees at my perch here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Yes, it's definitely cool for the season, but it's been colder. Burlington's record low for today is 38, so we're not even close. 

Frosts have hit all months of the year in the very coldest hollows of Vermont, and in the Adirondacks. 

Compared to late August and early September cold snaps in the distant past, today was no great shakes.  Cool spells in the current age of climate change are not your grandfather's  chilly spells. 

I have the receipts. 

Examples abound.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book:

On August 31, 1965, it got down to a wintery 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in both Northfield and Chelsea. Talk about an early end to the growing season! Burlington got to 35 degrees that day. It was the coldest temperature on record in Burlington, but that record was tied in 1976.

That August 31 brought temperatures to 29 in Northfield, Sutton and Woodstock. 

In the first week of September, 1967, West Burke got into the 30s for six days in a row. Not happening this year. 

In 1963, it was 28 degrees in Chelsea on September 5, and 30 degrees in West Burke on both the fifth and the sixth. 

Those were surely not great tomato growing years in Vermont. 

Any frost in the cold hollows today was a one-off, at least for now.  A warming trend will begin today, It'll still be on the cool side, with highs today within a couple degrees either side of 70. Tonight will be cool, but not as chilly as last night. By Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, highs temperatures will reach the 70s to around 80. 

There also isn't any real sign of a return to hard core summer weather, either, for at least a week or more. Another spell of coolish weather will probably return by next Sunday or Monday, as it looks now. 

Confirmed: August And Summer As A Whole In Vermont Hot, Wet

 Hot and wet.

Dark thunderstorm clouds invade blue sky on a humid
day over Colchester, Vermont on August 4. That
turned out to be typical weather for the entire month.

That's definitely how you can describe the summer of 2024. We knew that already, but the final figures are in to prove it. 

TEMPERATURES

The August figures are in and we had another warmer than normal month, at least if you look at all the historical averages dating back to the 1880s.

Even so, August was the "coolest" relative to normal of the three summer months in Vermont this year.  Overall temperatures for the month were near what has become a new normal. 

"Normal" temperatures are the average of the period from 1990 to 2020.  This is moved ahead every decade. Until 2020, the "normal." was the average between 1980 and 2010. You see how it's updated every decade.

Under this arrangement, Burlington was actually a touch cooler than this new normal in August, 2024, with a mean temperature of 70.4 degrees compared to this so-called "normal" of 70.7 degrees.

But this August was decidedly warmer than the 20th century average in Burlington. In the past 132 years, I could only find 29 Augusts that were as warm or warmer than this year. And only fifteen of those were before 1990.

Elsewhere in Vermont, August came in just a bit warmer than the new average, mostly by a degree or less. 

The month was humid in general, and you can see evidence of that in the numbers. Humid days tend to keep high temperatures suppressed a little bit, and overnight low temperatures on the higher side. 

Across Vermont, average high temperatures in August, 2024 were a bit below the "new normal," But average lows for the month were solidly on the warmer than average side. 

RAINFALL/OTHER EVENTS

Precipitation was generous across Vermont in August, 2024, but thankfully not nearly as torrential or destructive as in the previous month. 

Still, the Northeast Kingdom did have some more flooding in early August, and more heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Debby around August 9-10. Over those two days. St. Johnsbury had 2.78 inches of rain. 

Debris from a roof that blew off a house in St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on August 9 due to high winds produced by
former Hurricane Debby 

For the entire month, pretty much everyone was about an inch on the heaver than average side, except ultra wet St. Johnsbury, which had 6.11 inches of rain in August, about two inches more than normal. 

We did get a scare with Debby on August 9 to 10, as forecasts prior to the storm indicated Vermont might be in for another devastating flood. Instead, the severe flooding hit Pennsylvania, western and northwestern New York and on into Quebec.

High winds with that storm,  however, did cause quite a bit of damaging in the Green Mountain State, especially in and near the Champlain Valley. 

Like in many recent summers, we also dealt with occasional bouts of wildfire smoke during August, but the pollution wasn't nearly as bad as last year. 

FULL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31. This year, there's some pretty impressive records for the season.   .

St. Johnsbury  - very remarkably - had both its hottest and wettest summer on record, reports the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

It's especially wild since records in St. Johnsbury go back to 1894. The longer the period of record at a weather station,  the less likely they are to break big records like seasonal temperature and rain. The average summer temperature in St. Johnsbury was 70.3.

St. Johnsbury's wettest summer record was so off the charts I still can't believe it. From June 1 through August 31, they had an incredible 29.48 inches of rain over the three months, including that insane 17.15 inch total for July. 

St. Johnsbury's wettest day in history was the 8.08 inches that fell on July 30. Even if you subtract out the July 30 from this summer's rainfall, St. Johnsbury would still have had its wettest summer on record.  

Burlington tied with 2018 for the third hottest summer on record, with a three-month average of 72.1 degrees. That means four of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have been since 2018.  That's quite a trend that certainly hints at climate change. 

It reached at least 90 degrees on 14 days this summer. It's looking really unlikely we'll see any more such days, so that should be the total for the year. Only 13 other summers in Burlington since the late 1880s had as many or more 90 degree days than that. 

Montpelier had its third wettest and sixth warmest summer on record in 2024. 

Vermont managed to see a rare year in which at least one place managed to get to at least 100 degrees. North Springfield, Vermont, reached 101 degrees on June 21. They had quite a heat wave, with daily highs on June 19-21 at 98, 99, and that 101.

Speaking of quite a heat wave, Lebanon, New Hampshire had the most consecutive 90 degree days on record as each of the 12 days from July 6 through 17 reached at least 90.  Lebanon is a good proxy for White River Junction since it's right across the Connecticut River. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Long range forecasts, as I always like to point out are prone to error. But they often do provide hints as to what's coming up, even if they're not always reliable. 

In recent years, summer weather has extended well into September, another sign of climate change. 

This year, though, the first half of September looks like we'll be a little closer to autumn than usual. Temperatures over the next two weeks are forecast to be near or a little cooler than average across Vermont. 

Longer range forecasts from NOAA, however, hint at better odds of a warmer than average autumn overall.  NOAA gives the best chances of a toasty autumn to the southern Rockies and New England.   

That's also consistent with recent autumn. Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record in Burlington have occurred since 2011. Records go back to the 1880s.

Strong August Vermont Cool Spell Looms, But Back In The Day, It Would Have Been "Normal"

It's going to feel like autumn in Vermont this coming week,
though we'll definitely have to wait several more weeks at
least before we see fall foliage and snow
capped mountains like this. 

 Arguably the coolest August weather in quite a few years appears to be looming in Vermont for the upcoming week. 

It's looking like we'll have a couple days with highs just in the 60s, with maybe a couple upper 50s for highs in the coldest spots. Overnight lows during this spell, which will peak Tuesday and Wednesday, will fall into the 40s to maybe around 50 in the warmest spots.

That's quite a shocking change after the long, humid, almost tropical summer we've had here in the Green Mountain State. 

It's still hazy and humid out there this Sunday morning. Some light showers dampened things last night, and we have a chance of some scattered showers today. Not too big a deal. Though an isolated spot or two could see a very heavy downpour. 

Monday will be the transition day, as a wet cold front comes through. Most of us should see a good inch of rain by the time it winds down Monday night. 

We'll have to watch for locally heavy rain. It's possible some embedded thunderstorms could hit the same spot repeatedly, raising the (again!) risk of isolated flash flooding. It doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem, but it is something to watch in case things get out of control in one or two towns.

THE COLD SNAP

Forecasts have been trending colder and colder with the upcoming cool blast of air. It will really feel like we're well into autumn Tuesday and Wednesday. 

On both days, there's some questions as to how much cloudiness and showers will be around. Some forecasts have only widely scattered showers under partly sunny skies both days. If that happens, highs will reach the upper 60s for most of us, which is cool for the season, but not totally out of control.

Some forecasts call for lots of clouds and showers both days, which would hold high temperatures in the low 60s, with some upper 50s in the colder, higher elevation towns.  Stiff north winds would make it feel chillier.

Drag out those hoodies and blankets, folks!

I don't think anybody has to worry about frosty nights just yet, but the colder hollows could reach the upper 30s if skies clear enough during the nights.

It'll start to gradually warm up later in the week, and we should be back to normal temperatures (highs 75-82, lows in the 50s to near 60) by next weekend. 

OLD FASHIONED COLD

Nowadays, the type of chill that's in the forecast for this upcoming week is unusual for August. Climate change has made summers hotter, so a couple days of highs in the 60s this time of year has become unusual. 

Especially if you consider the top four hottest Augusts in Burlington have all occurred since just 2016.  

It never used to be that way a few decades ago.  A few days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s used to happen virtually every August. The coldest high temperature on record for Tuesday in Burlington is 60 degrees, and for Wednesday that record coldest high is 58 degrees.  I strongly doubt we'll break those records. 

There's lots of examples of cold August weather in the past. 

In August 1965 and 1976, it got as cold as 35 degrees in Burlington, and widespread frosts damaged crops in other parts of Vermont.  Eight of the first 10 days of August 1964 got into the 40s in Burlington. On the weekend of August 21-22, 1982, skiers cut turns on three inches of fresh snow near the summit of Killington. 

So yes, it was a different type of late summer in Vermont a few decades ago. 

COLD TO HEAT?

The following is the most uncertain part of the forecast, but there's some evidence to suggest the cold high pressure from Canada this week will end up moving to our east and eventually merging with the Bermuda High. 

If the happens, and if no new cold fronts immediately emerge from Canada, the same weather system that is about to cause our big preview to autumn might also eventually bring in some late season heat. Stay tuned on that one.   

Hot As The Fourth Of July Indeed As 90 Degree Days Pile Up In Vermont

Lillies blooming in the hot sun of 
Fourth of July, 2024 in St. Albans, 
Vermont. Temperatures made it
to 90 degrees in parts of the state
and we might have more such
days in the coming week. 

 It was a bit of surprise, but at least in Burlington, Vermont, we made it to 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

We knew it was going to be warm and humid Thursday, but it did get a little hotter than expected. We had a bit more sun than I had anticipated, which helped boost temperatures.

I guess the weather gods wanted to keep with tradition. You know, "Hot as the Fourth of July" and all that jazz. 

It's turning out to be a very warm summer, as expected, at least so far. I wonder if the  Fourth of July heat could be a sign that this summer might make it into the top ten warmest.

Burlington actually has 14 summers in their list of top ten warmest, since there are several ties on the list. In five of those summers, it was 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

That might not seem like much, but the chances of a 90 degree day falling on a specific day in Vermont, no matter how hot the summer, is pretty iffy.

The 90 degrees on July 4 this year is the sixth time it got to that level this year. We're on a - pardon the pun - blistering pace.  

Even if we don't have another 90 degree day for the rest of the summer, only 48 out of the past 123 entire years in Burlington have had at least six days that got that hot. 

Of course, the Champlain Valley is Vermont's banana belt. Most of the rest of the state has fewer 90s than places like Burlington. 

We'll have more chances at hitting 90 degrees, at least in the Champlain Valley in the coming days and probably weeks. 

The United States right now is dominated by two heat domes - one along the West Coast, the other on the East Coast.  In between, a little bit of a dip in the jet stream is keeping the northern and central parts of the Great Plains and Midwest relatively reasonable

As a reminder, a heat dome is a big area of summertime high pressure that features lots of sinking air. That sinking air causes compressional warming, which makes hot air even hotter.

By far, the strongest of the two heat domes is in the West. That heat dome is intense, long lasting, and will likely lead to some all time high temperatures in areas from the central Rockies to the Pacific Coast. 

Climate change is making this type of scary heat dome more likely. 

Luckily for us in Vermont, the heat dome in the East is pretty much a typical Bermuda High. There might be a few record highs, but not all that many, really. 

Plus, Vermont is on the northern edge of this big eastern heat zone. That means we're subject to weak disturbances that tend to temper the heat. 

Still, it's going to be uncomfortable out there, with more chances at 90 degree heat. Today could be another 90 degree afternoon. Especially since it was already 87 degrees in Burlington as of 1 p.m.  

On Saturday, if expected showers and storms hold off long enough, we could make another run at 90 degrees. Monday and Tuesday of next week could also get that warm. Maybe. 

Whether or not it actually gets to 90 degrees on any day now through the start of next week, you'll want to take it easy. Humidity will stay  high, so you'll not want to overexert yourself outdoors. And, like we did in June, keep an eye on your elderly neighbors, especially if they don't have air conditioning.

Maybe kidnap them again and take them to a movie. "Despicable Me 4" with all those yellow pill-like Minions might be good for a few laughs. 

There are some uncertain signs that dip in the jet stream over the Midwest might edge a little further east briefly in about a week, giving us a break from the warmth and humidity. 

That said, the overall weather pattern features a much better than even chance of warmer than average temperatures at least into the third week of July.  

How Our Big Vermont Heat Wave Compared With Past June Hot Spells

Thunderheads billow into the sky over St. Albans Bay,
Vermont during the peak of this past week's heat wave on
Wednesday.  The scattered showers and storms probably
prevented actual high temperatures from getting even
higher than they did

 Before the just-ended heat wave, I predicted this would be among the biggest June hot spells on record for Vermont.   

Sure enough, this was a biggie, but not the most extreme we've seen.

The most notable record was the minimum temperature in Burlington on Wednesday, June 19 of 80 degrees. That ties the all-time record for highest minimum temperature for any date in Burlington.

The persistence of the heat in Burlington overnight, was incredible. The temperature rose above 78 degrees from a little before 9 a.m. June 18 until a little after 3 p.m. June 20 when a strong thunderstorm dropped the temperature to 72 degrees. 

 The high temperature Wednesday in Burlington was 96 degrees, four degrees short of the record for the date and the all time record high for the month, also set on June 19 back in 1995. I have a feeling that we would have made it closer to 100 had the sun stayed consistently out all day. 

But the air was so humid it generated numerous showers and storms, which helped keep temperatures down by a few degrees. 

I'd still rate our recent hot spell as worse than the one in 1995. The average temperature in Burlington on June 19, 2024 was 88 degrees and due to a cooler night back then, the mean temperature on June 19, 1995 was half a degree cooler. 

And we only had two days in a row with temperatures over 90 back in that hot spell in 1995. 

 I did find a June hot spell way more intense than the one this past week.  Probably the worst June hot spell on record came in June, 1946. It would have been the second longest heat wave on record if one day had not fallen just short of 90 degrees.

On June 24-30 the highs in Burlington were 90,92,94,89,93,96,93.

Unlike this year, June, 1946 was chilly until that late month heat wave.

TRENDS

Overall, Burlington has had a grand total of 82 heat waves since the 1880s. A heat wave here is defined as three or more consecutive days in which the temperature reaches 90 degrees or more. 

This was only the 16th heat wave entirely within the month of June. Climate change is likely contributing to more hot weather in June than in past decades. 

Temperatures above 95 degrees used to be rare in June, happening in only a handful of years prior to this century. With Wednesday's high of 96 in Burlington, that makes four of the past five Junes making it to 96 degrees in Burlington. 

Junes with multiple days going to 90 or above seem to be increasing, too. Including this year, I found 13 Junes in the past century in Burlington with at least four days in the 90s. Seven of those Junes have happened since 1999. Only three of them were before 1983. 

More 90s this June are certainly possible, but unlikely. The best chances of it happening are this coming Wednesday, but that's really iffy.

There's plenty more time for additional hot days in July and August, though. 

The record for the most 90s in a single year still stands at 26, back in 1949. It would be a real tall order to break that record in 2024.