Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Vermont June In Vermont Was Wet And Warm, Stormy And Sunny

The highlight of Vermont's warm, wet June was a pair
of tornadoes that hit the state on June 18. This is a
photo of tree damage in Woodstock from 
one of the tornadoes, 

The numbers are in for what the climate was like in June, and as you'd expect, almost all of us experienced  a warm and wet June. 

In Burlington it was both the 15th warmest and 15th wettest June out of the past 135 years or so. The actual mean temperature in Burlington for June was 69.1 degrees.

That came in at only 1.6 degrees above normal, which you'd think wouldn't qualify the month at being 15th warmest.  But, as I remind you practically every month, this is the "new normal." It's based on the average of 1990 to 2020 when climate change had already made things around here warmer than the 20th century average. 

I imagine in several decades, the month we just had would be considered chilly 

The pattern in Burlington was repeated across the state, except the extreme southwest, where average temperatures for June, 2026 were close to average. 

However, most other weather stations that I checked were roughly between one and two degrees warmer than average.

Much of the state was wet, too. Burlington's 5.56 inches was 1.4 inches above average. As we get into the summer months, precipitation around the state gets much more variable. And so it was in June. Montpelier June total was 4.26 inches, just a few hundredths of an inch above normal.

It was both a pleasant month, as we got our fair share of sunny, comfortable days. But it was also stormy.  The highlight were the two tornadoes that hit Vermont on June 18. One was in a remote part of Lincoln, but the other was in a fairly busy spot along Route 4 in Woodstock. Given that the Woodstock tornado had wind speeds up to 100 mph, it's a very pleasant surprise that motorists along Route 4 or in nearby buildings weren't hurt. 

Other events included a supercell that caused damage in northwest and central Rutland County on June 26.

Also, on June 11, some flash flooding with road damage was reported in Hardwick and Wolcott.

For July, we already know it's starting out wicked hot, so it seems chances are it will be a hot July. NOAA is leaning just slightly toward giving us a warmer than normal July here in Vermont. If that's right, maybe soe cool weather late in the month will offset the current terrible heat. It's worth dreaming. 

NOAA also is slightly leaning toward a wetter than average July. We shall see!

Fire Weather Alerts In Vermont Today Amid Dry Air, Gusty Winds. When Will The Rain Arrive?

After a long day of enjoying Monday's 
warm sunshine, a tired Henry the Weather
Dog settles down in the evening to watch
TV as evening sun bathes the 
living room in warm light. 

 We hope  you got to enjoy yesterday, Vermont's nicest day of the year so far. Temperatures were in the 70s, the sky was blue, there was a nice breeze making the daffodils dance. It was perfect. Except for the black flies, but you can't have everything. 

Last night turned interesting, at least for weather geeks like me, South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures up, while in other areas especially east of the Green Mountains, light winds created another chilly night. 

It was a summer-like 58 degrees in Burlington at 6 a.m. But at the same time, it was just 34 degrees in Morrisville and 37 in Springfield.

The dry air and those south winds are conspiring to create probably Vermont's highest fire danger of the year so far. 

The whole region has a big fire risk today, but the worst of it is in the Champlain Valley and northern New York. 

A storm that caused severe weather over the Midwest yesterday is pushing east. That storm is rapidly weakening, but combined with the high to our east, it'll funnel stronger wind gusts up the Champlain Valley and into northern New York today. The humidity will stay rock bottom as it has for the past few days. 

With everything dried out and those winds gusting as high as 30 mph, fires could easily get going and then spread fast. And they'll be really hard to control once they do get going.    

Even though winds will be lighter in eastern Vermont, they'll still be enough to propel any fires that start there, too. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says today's fire danger is very high in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley. That's an unusually dire declaration from state fire wardens. Elsewhere in Vermont, the forestry department gives today a high fire danger rating.

As of this writing, there was a fire weather watch in western Vermont and northern New York due to the fire danger. That watch will probably be upgraded to a relatively rare for Vermont red flag warning. Elsewhere in Vermont, a special weather statement highlights the fire danger.

This is not the day to be careless with cigarettes or burn that nasty weedy patch in back of your house. Do that and you can lose your house. Or your neighbors' house. 

That storm coming in will start to spread clouds our way this afternoon, but we won't have any rain to reduce the fire threat. Any showers coning from the Great Lakes area will fall apart long before they reach Vermont.

Otherwise, today will be great. Highs will reach the low 70s again. And the winds might help keep the black flies at bay a little. 

All this will leave us with a quiet, mild night tonight. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll still be dry and relatively warm, so the fire threat will remain. It won't be as windy and the humidity will be slightly higher than it is today. It'll get into the 60s to around 70, so again, fairly warm for this time of year. Clouds will tend to increase again later in the day, in anticipation of a huge change in our weather pattern

RAIN ARRIVES

The next weather disturbance in the pipeline will head northeastward up the western side to the Appalachians and will start to arrive here late Wednesday night. 

That means much colder air and rain for most of Thursday. The steadiest and heaviest rain will probably come Thursday morning but I don't see any real dry periods at all.  High temperatures will only reach the 50s at best. 

Rainfall predictions are always tricky. They do change a lot leading up to a storm like this. But for now, the forecast calls for a respectable three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. That's more than enough to dampen the fire risk. 

And the dreaded "S" word enters the picture, too. It should cool off enough Thursday night for rain showers to mix with or change to snow at elevations above 1,500 feet.  There might be an inch or two of new snow at the summits. This isn't super weird for late April but still vaguely depressing.

NEW COLDER PATTERN

Nothing's really changed in the extended forecast we've been talking about for a few days now. We have an extended period of mostly cooler than normal weather.  We had several days of sunny, dry weather, now we'll have at least double the amount of chilly, unsettled weather. Like I said yesterday, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished. 

This will last at least until mid-May. It won't rain every day, and we should have a couple reasonably warm days thrown in here and there. 

Most days will have a chance of showers. The coldest days will be Friday and Saturday, as some of us will probably not break 50 degrees for highs.

On the bright side, chilly ain't what it used to be, as normal temperatures have been rising fast and will continue to do so into May.  Look at it this way.  A day that was ten degrees cooler than normal on April 10 would have had a high of 42 degrees. A day that's ten degrees on the cool side on May 10 would have a high of 57. 

So chilly weather is definitely getting easier. 

And for what they're worth, very long range forecasts call for a potentially hot and unusually humid summer around here. If that comes true, you'll be pining for those damp, cool days we'll have in May this year. 

Out Warm, Showery Vermont Week Has Begun, Springtime Thunderstorms In The Mix Too??

More patches of green and flower buds keep showing
up in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens amid mild air
and April showers. A lot more greenery will 
appear this week as the mild, showers weather continues. 

Well, Sunday worked out about as planned, as morning sun quickly yielded to a gray day, with rain arriving central and north toward evening. 

As expected, not much rain fell, except in a few places. Most of northern Vermont got a quarter inch of rain, give or take.  Some places close to the Canadian border got quite a bit more. 

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans recorded 0.8 inches of rain overnight. In southern Vermont, there were only sprinkles overnight. 

The wind also picked up in the Champlain Valley, and it was a bit gusty with winds to 40  or 45 mph at times. 

Elsewhere, there were some breezes, and cloudy skies and damp air to start the day. The wind will tend to diminish some this afternoon.

This sets us up for a rather warm, pretty unsettled week. If you wanted your April showers, the next several days will result in a flood of May flowers. The good news is it doesn't look like the showers will be enough to bring much of any other kind of more unpleasant floods. 

Except maybe in far northern Vermont. There's no flood alerts anywhere up in that neck of the woods. But that part of the state can expect some local downpours over the next few days.  And maybe even some thunderstorms to jazz things up a little. Plus,  there's still snow melting off of high elevations like Jay Peak. 

I'm not particularly worried about any flooding at this point, but, as always, we'll keep an eye on it.

THE PATTERN

Everything is kind of stuck for a few days. A strong ridge of high pressure - basically a heat dome - is set up along or near the Southeast coast.  That means the East Coast from about New York City south will have a week of hot, dry weather. 

We'll see a bunch of record highs through much of the East. (Washington DC should have daily highs near 90 degrees all week, for instance).  The East Coast will also face worsening drought and a worsening wildfire risk, so the news isn't good there. 

It's been a relatively warm spring so far here in Vermont, but not as extreme as many other parts of the US. In many parts of the nation, summer essentially started by the time the spring equinox rolled around. Very weird. 

Small storms and disturbances will ride the western and northern periphery  of the heat dome, riding up through the Plains and parts of the Midwest, then turning eastward through the Great Lakes and then New England. Mostly northern New England. 

That means several days of a tornado and severe storms risk in the middle of the nation and flooding risks in the northern Great Lake. For us in Vermont, it won't be so scary.  Well see lots of showers mixed with breaks of drier weather, warm temperatures, especially in southern Vermont, a rapid advancement of spring and probably an explosion of those awful black flies we see every spring. 

Spring can't just be flowers and sunshine after all.

THE DETAILS

Essentially, a front separating somewhere cooler air to the north and the summery air to the south will hang out near the Canadian border most of the week, wavering north and south  into and out of Vermont as s disturbances come by one after the other. 

Northern Vermont will be mild enough, as the real cold air will stay behind another boundary way up in Quebec. By that I mean highs in the 60s most of the week, lows near 50 with those requent shower threats. 

By the time you get to southern Vermont, it will be almost full on summer. Today should be the first of at least six consecutive days in places like Brattleboro will be in the 70s.  I wouldn't be a surprised if an 80 degree day or two were thrown in. Pretty impressive for mid-April!

Southern Vermont might see some showers and thunderstorms too, but probably not as many as areas to the north. 

A warm front came though overnight.  That established our boundary we'll deal with all week. The front should settle back down into northern Vermont as a cold front this afternoon. That means showers would re-blossom this afternoon. 

Most of us should see only a tenth to a quarter inch of rain out of this. 

TUESDAY

The cold front won't be able to drop temperatures much in the north and not at all in the south. So by tomorrow, we'll have another day that reaches the low 60s north, near 70 south.  

Another in a series of disturbances will come at us tomorrow. This one might include thunderstorms. In fact a few of them could get a little strong in the warmer, humid air in central and perhaps southern Vermont. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms basically south and west of Interstate 89 on Tuesday. That's the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms, but still. I think this i the first time we've contemplated severe storms this year. 

Basically, we could have isolated instances of strong wind gusts and some hail in a few spots tomorrow. This forecasts will probably be adjusted one way or another by tomorrow, so stay tuned. There is a much better chance of severe storms tomorrow over the Great Lakes and many parts of the Midwest. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Kind of rinse and repeat. Disturbances will bring showers and maybe a few thunderstorms through both days. Whether we get any sort of strong storms depends on whether the disturbances come through during the peak heating of the day and whether we get sun ahead of these disturbances to make the atmosphere more unstable. 

We'll keep an eye on that, too. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY

The ridge of high pressure will tend to reorient itself so it pokes further north. By Saturday, that means we should have the warmest day of this spell of weather. Depending on how much sun hits, many areas could hit 80 degrees for a real summer preview. No promises, but we'll see.

Sometime later Saturday or Sunday, a cold front will come in with more showers and maybe storms, and that will bring us back down to reality.  Summer will be temporarily over by early next week as temperatures fall to near normal (highs in the 50s lows in the 30s).

After a seemingly never ending winter, you didn't actually expect a never ending summer in Vermont, did you?  Of course not. 

 

After A Noisy Night Tonight, A Showery Warm Vermont Springtime Week Due

Daffodil shoots really beginning to grow in St. Albans
Vermont. A wet, warm week, marked by balmy nights
should have daffodils blooming in my yard by
next weekend, if not sooner. 

Saturday wasn't quite the bright and sunny day we hoped for, especially in northern Vermont. Instability clouds lingered, leading to a blustery, cloudy day. Southern Vermont did break into the sun. 

If you like sun, this isn't going to be your week, but on the bright side, many of us will see plenty of April showers, the ones that stereotypically lead to May flowers. And spring allergies. That's especially true since it still looks like we have mild weather on the way. 

TODAY/TONIGHT

Get out first thing this morning if you like to bask in sunshine, as there will be only glimpses of sun during most of the week. 

It started out in the 20s for most of us today, but the morning sun will help get us into the 50s by early afternoon. There were already high clouds out there as of 8 a.m.. Those clouds will thicken and lower today, blotting out the sun. By late this afternoon, it will be gray and overcast and blah, with rain on our doorsteps. 

The culprit is a warm front. That will spread a bunch of rain across Vermont overnight and through much of Monday. It'll also get windy overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That will create the classic Vermont noisy night: We'll hear bursts of rain on the roof and the roar of wind through the trees, especially before and near dawn tomorrow.  Somehow, that kind of weather makes me sleep better, but I'm sure that's not the same for everyone.

The winds will probably be strongest during the early morning hours. During that time, the rain will have tapered off somewhat.

Strong winds from aloft mix down to the surface better when it's not really raining, hence the stronger winds when we're out of the showers.

 This won't be any kind of destructive wind storm. It'll be what we've seen repeatedly over the past three weeks or so. Gusts will go over 40 mph in many places in the Champlain Valley. In the rest of Vermont outside the higher peaks, winds would gust in the 25 to 35 mph range. 

If you've gotten optimistic and put out lightweight summer furniture and decorations, you might find them blown against the fence line by tomorrow bring. 

There's even a very slight chance of thunder, but I think we're a bit more likely to see thunder later in the week. 

The risk of shower will continue through Monday, but I don't think it will rain all the time. 

Southwest winds aloft might limit precipitation overnight and much of Monday might help the Adirondacks block moisture to the Champlain Valley. Those areas might only see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain by Monday afternoon. The lower Connecticut River Valley should also see about that amount of rain. 

Most of the rest of northern and central Vermont should see at least a half inch of rain with up to an inch in the Green Mountains. 

All this will allow rivers to rise again, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to set off any real flooding. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The "cold front" from this storm will arrive late in the afternoon tomorrow. I've got it in quotation marks because it won't exactly make us cold.  Mostly because it should stall out somewhere near northern Vermont. 

Places north of Route 2 might be a little cooler during the first half of the week because of this front.  We'll once again see that wide range in Vermont temperatures we've seen so often this spring.  

It's a little tough to predict actual temperatures because it all depends on where that front sets up. But for now, it looks like far northern Vermont will hold in the 58 to 65 degree range for daily highs Monday through Thursday. 

Meanwhile, valleys in far southern Vermont could see highs in the mid-70s for three or four days in a row, which its fairly impressive for April. 

The more eye-popping warm temperatures with this weather setup will be the overnight lows.  Minimum daily temperatures Tuesday through the weekend should range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.  That's pretty close to record high low temperatures for this time of year. Confusing sentence, there, but you get the point. 

The warm nights will also ensure that the pace of spring will move incredibly fast. It's possible a few trees in the balmier valleys of southern Vermont could start to turn green much earlier than normal. Here in northern Vermont, I strongly suspect I'll have daffodils blooming by next weekend. 

Disturbances riding along the front will keep a chance of showers and even thunderstorms in the forecast every day this week. It won't rain all the time. In fact southern Vermont should be dry most of the time. Pinning down the exact timing of the showers is of course early impossible this far in advance. 

Have an umbrella handy all week if you don't want rain to ruin your perfect hairdo, or something like that. 

The west to east orientation of the front looks like it could change to more of a north/south arrangement by the weekend. As it sets up to the west, all of Vermont could see a day or two in the 70s or even near 80 if we get lucky. 

If we had to guess when that front would finally come through Vermont and head east, we'd think maybe next Sunday or Monday.  After it comes through, our summer in April will end amid cooler, blustery weather.  

The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

U.S. Just Had Fourth Warmest Year On Record. Was Also A Busy Storm Year

Virtually all of the Lower 48 had a warmer than normal
year in 2025. Those little white spots were close to 
average. Overall, it was the fourth warmest year on record.

The United States had its fourth warmest year on record in 2025, and it was an active storm year, according to a year in review from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

The report from NCEI came out the same time as their global report for 2025. That report, as I posted about Thursday. indicated the the world had its third warmest year in 2025 and that the past three years have been by far the world's warmest on record. 

Per NCEI:

"Temperatures were above average nationwide, with the most pronounced warmth across the western third of the country. The Rockies and Westward region, stretching from the West Coast through the Rocky Mountains, recorded its warmest annual temperature on record."

The United States might have had its warmest year on record, or close to it, had we not experienced January, 2025 the way we did. It was the coldest since 1988.

But things quickly heated up from there, as NCEI explains.

"This was followed by the second-warmest spring on record, driven by widespread warmth across the Southeast, where Florida recorded its second warmest May. Summer heat included a late June heatwave affecting over 100 million people ad record warm July overnight temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic.

Anomalous warmth persisted into the latter half of the year, as meteorological fall ranked as the nation's third warmest. Following a November that saw five states set monthly records, nine states - Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming - recorded their warmest December on record." 

In the end, Nevada and Utah had their warmest year on record. Including those two states a dozen had one of their four warmest years on record. Here in Vermont, the state as a whole had its 18th warmest year. As always, the relative temperatures within the Green Mountain State varied. Burlington had its ninth warmest year. 

The United States as a whole had a drier than normal year. The lower 48 had an average of 29.19 inches of precipitation, which was 0.73 below average.

No state had an extremely high or low amount of precipitation. Kentucky had its ninth wettest year on record and Florida had its 11th driest. The Plains were a little on the wet side, and the East Coast and Southwest were somewhat on the dry side. 

STORMS/DISASTERS

The United States suffered through 23 weather/climate disasters in 2025 that cost at least $1 billion, according to Climate Central.

These 23 disasters cost a total of $115 billion, which is above the inflation-adjusted average of $67.6 billion. Only five other years were more expensive, with 2017 being the worst, with $405.2 billion in damage. 

Tornadoes

The United States had a preliminary count of 1,559 tornadoes in 2025, which is above the average of 1,225 twisters. The past year had the fifth highest tornado count on record. 

 Despite the extra tornadoes, and the strong ones that occurred in 2025, the death toll from twisters was close to average. Sixty-eight people died in tornadoes in 2025, compared to an average of 71.

North Dakota had quite a tornado year in 2025. The first EF-5 tornado - the strongest you can get - since 2013 touched down near Enderlin, North Dakota on June 20. North Dakota also had the most tornadoes in a single year with 72 of them. The old North Dakota record for a single year was 61 in 2010.

Hurricanes/Tropical Storms 

The Atlantic basin had 13 named storms in 2025, which is a smidge under the average. For the first time  since 2015, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, which was a welcome break from a string of disastrous hurricane years. 

We were especially lucky since many of the hurricanes that did form were unusually strong. Three Category 5 hurricanes formed, which is the second  most on record. There was also Category 4 Gabrielle.

Easily the worst hurricane of the bunch was Melissa. A dropsonde recorded a wind gust of 252 mph at an elevation of 820 above the ocean as the hurricane was approaching Jamaica. That was a world record, exceeding the previous dropsonde record of 248 mph in Typhoon Mega in the western Pacific Ocean in 2010. 

DECEMBER IN REVIEW

December was incredibly warm in the West, with nine
states having their hottest December on record.
The Northeast was a little on the cool side. 

As mentioned above, the notable news about the December was the huge area in the West that had its hottest December on record. Overall, last month in the Lower 48 was the fifth warmest on record, NCEI tells us.    

Most months this year had very few areas in the United States that were cooler than normal However, in December, chilly air in the Northeast slightly offset the heat in the west. This helps explain why December was only the fifth warmest, and not the warmest.  

Nine northeastern states were cooler than most months in the 131 years of record. But none were particularly close to the coldest on record. The closest to the record was Pennsylvania, which had its 36th coolest December, so not that impressive. Here in Vermont, we had our 42nd chilliest December out of the past 131 years. Again, not an impressive record.

The West was impressive, however.

Three of the nine western states (Utah, Nevada and Arizona) that had their hottest December broke the previous record by more than 2.5 degrees. It's exceeding rare to break a previous hottest month record by one degree or more. 

Also three states - Utah, Wyoming and Colorado - were more than 10 degrees warmer than average. Again, that's an incredible feat. 

Precipitation in the Lower 48 averaged out to 2.01 inches, which is 0.33 inches below average. Like temperatures in December, precipitation was maldistributed. 

The central and southern Plains and most of the Gulf Coast were much drier than they should have been. Oklahoma had its driest December on record. Oklahoma City, for example, had just 0.09 inches of rain in December. They should have had about 1.8 inches. 

Seven other states in the parched region had one of their top ten driest Decembers on record.

On the opposite extreme, Washington, Montpelier, Idaho and Wyoming had one of their top ten wettest Decembers on record. 

 

Windy Vermont Continues As Nasty Storm Continues To Loom

Rainfall prediction map for Thursday night and Friday.'
Most of should get about an inch or so of rain. Combined
with melting snow, we could get some minor flooding.

 It got blustery again overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley, as Vermont's windy, cold month continues. 

The cold is about to disappear big time, if only briefly, but the winds will keep howling. Today is the 13th day out of the 17 this month in which winds have gusted to at least 30 mph in Burlington. I'm sure Thursday and Friday will also get above 30 mph. 

The high winds are hitting in huge parts of the nation today, which I'll get into more detail in another post today. 

But for now, let's focus on Vermont.

The south winds today are coming from a storm way up in central Quebec. Wind have already gusted to 40 mph in Burlington earlier today, and as of this morning was still going over 30 mph. Meanwhile, there's not much wind in central and eastern Vermont. 

The channeling effects of the Champlain Valley really help the wind blow. But almost everywhere in Vermont, whatever south winds hit will get us above freezing today for a change. 

The storm will drag a cold front through later today, but it doesn't have much moisture to work with. So, just a few rain and snow showers. Though a couple of the snow showers could come down hard briefly late this afternoon and evening in parts of northern Vermont, especially near the Green Mountains. But if there's any accumulation anywhere, it won't be much. 

The cold front will also create gusty west winds after it passes, with the highest gusts along and east of the Greens.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

This will be our runup to our big storm. The wind will shift to the south and again, and start blowing even harder than it is today in the Champlain Valley. Some spots there will see winds gust to 35 mph. 

Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and low 40s in the afternoon and keep going up overnight Thursday into Friday.

It now doesn't look like there will be much rain until midnight or after. The bulk of the rain will come between that midnight hour and noon Friday. There will be quite a bit of it, too. Current forecasts give us an inch or so of rain.

That, combined with the snow melt amid the warm temperatures does put the risk of flooding in play. It's still a little early to get a forecast as to how high water will get, but minor flooding definitely looks possible in some spots. 

Ironically, given the cold month we've had, we could easily see some record high temperatures Friday morning. For some reason, the current record high on Friday in Burlington is only 49 degrees, lower than most daily record highs this year. Most of 'em are in the 50s to around 60 .

Montpelier's record high Friday is also 49 degrees, so that might get eclipsed, too. St. Johnsbury's record high Friday is 60, so that looks safe. 

Don't get used to those balmy temperatures. It's back to winter Friday afternoon and probably on through the rest of the month.

We might have trouble with some snow behind the cold front Friday afternoon or evening along with water freezing on the roads. Stay tuned for those travel alerts Friday evening. 

After Friday, it looks like just weaker systems are on tap,  one on Sunday, the other on Tuesday or early on Christmas Eve. Neither storm would bring much snow, but they'll keep the gusty winds going. 

Next Up: Possible Vermont Record Heat, Little Drought Relief

Some late season flowers hanging on in my St. 
Albans, Vermont gardens. Near record heat coming
up should keep them going, unless the drought
finally does them in. 

We're in the midst of our latest big, honking, dry, sunny high pressure system here in Vermont.

It hasn't rained in a week, which will surely worsen the drought, and no rain is in the forecast until Tuesday. And even then, I'm unimpressed with the rain forecast. 

More on that in a minute, but first we have to get through the weekend. It feels strange to say this but it'll be a hot one. At least for October.

Our big honking high pressure is moving off a bit to our east now, opening flow of very warm, but - of course - dry air from the Midwest and South.

 Some of those areas in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes have had some record high temperatures, and that's coming our way. 

Today and tomorrow will brings us balmy temperatures in the 70s. Then Sunday and Monday get really warm. 

RECORD HIGHS?

In early October, Vermont days should have a pretty crisp feel to them. Highs are usually just a little over 60 degree, and nights get into the 30s and 40s.

Daytime highs coming up will instead be more like early to mid August.  That means we could have some record highs on Sunday and Monday.

It Burlington, the record high Sunday is 83 degrees and on Monday it's 82.  In Montpelier, Sunday's record high is 82 and Monday's is 79.  All those are in reach. 

In St. Johnsbury, the record high Monday is 83, and that could fall, but their record high Sunday is 87, which is insanely warm for October, That record was set in 2023, which brings me to my next point. 

This will be the third year in a row with insanely warm October weather. 

That St. Johnsbury's record high of 87 from 2023 was part of the biggest October heat wave in Vermont history. Burlington reached 86 degrees on October 4, setting the all time record high for the month of October.  Montpelier tied its October high with 84 degrees. Woodstock, Vermont had three days in a row with highs of 86 degrees on October 4-6, 2023.

Last year, the end of the October brought a summer redux. Record highs were set on October 21-23 with highs in the mid and upper 70s. 

Then, Halloween hit, and I think the 2024 costume of the year had to be beachwear. Record high were shattered with Burlington hitting 77 degrees, breaking the days's record high by six degrees. Plattsburgh was even more ridiculous, reaching 83 degrees.  

In 2022, the autumn heat waiting until November. On November 6 that year, Burlington reached 76 degrees, setting a new all time high for the month of November. Summer-like thunderstorms hit that day, too. 

Climate change is altering all our seasons, and autumn is certainly included!

RAIN CHANCES

For a change, the next cold front that will end our October heat wave won't be a dry one. But it won't be an especially wet one, either. 

It will cloud  up Tuesday but still be oddly warm for October. Showers could start in the afternoon, then continue into the evening. Early guesses are we could see roughly half an inch of rain, give or take. That will do almost nothing to help with the drought, but we'll take what we can get.

Also, in the past couple of months, I've seen optimistic forecasts of rain dry up before the weather system actually got here, so I have that bit of pessimism in my brain.

Even if it does rain Tuesday night, we have yet another in our long series of big honky dry high pressure systems that will linger around here for perhaps a week after Tuesday night's cold front, so drought relief does not look like it's in the cards. 

Vermont, Back In Sunny Drought, Will See Temperatures Bounce Around

Henry the Weather Dog says his favorite weather is
warm, sunny weather, so he's been very happy 
lately. He's not as worried about the drought as
many Vermonters are. In this photo, he's taking
a quick break from playing with his friends
in Sunday's sunshine at a 
St. Albans, Vermont dog park. 

After our welcome rains last week, and a slow clearing trend, we're back to the sunny, drought-idled regime we've been on here in Vermont since mid-summer. 

A weak disturbance gave us some clouds Saturday, but no rain, of course. 

Sunday was beautiful and mostly sunny and oddly warm for the end of September. The high temperature in Burlington was 81 degrees, just two degrees below the record high for the date.

That band of clouds that came through midday Sunday was allegedly a cold front. It had no rain with it - again, of course. The "cold front" introduced some less humid air, which allowed temperatures to fall a little lower this morning that the very mild previous nights. 

Sunday's alleged cold front was the start of a temporary cooling trend that will reverse itself by the end of the week.  By next weekend, it'll be strangely warm again. The only constant through all this will be the daily almost wall to wall sunshine. Not great if you're sick of Vermont's deep, destructive drought. 

Today will be almost as warm as Sunday, ahead of the next cold front. That front will come through tonight with no fanfare, no rain, no nothing.  All it will do is make tomorrow feel noticeably cooler. But still mild enough for the last day of September.

BRIEF COOL SPELL

The trend will keep running cooler Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will actually be fairly close to normal for this time of year. Highs both days should be within a few degrees either side of 60. That's not bad, considering in the past we've sometimes seen highs in the 40s in the opening days of October. 

Even so, we'll have to worry about scattered frosts and freezes again Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. It won't be anything out of the ordinary for the first days of October, but it you're hanging on to your outdoor plants, you probably will have to cover them up again. 

Much of the Champlain Valley looks like it will escape the frost, but pay attention to future forecasts in case it gets unexpectedly cool any of those nights.  

One thing that could slightly mitigate the risk of frost comes in part - believe it or not - from Hurricane Humberto and soon to be Hurricane Imelda far offshore of the East Coast. 

The contrast between those storms, and massive, dry high pressure coming down from Quebec, will stir up a north to northeast breeze. Overnight breezes might keep temperatures up just a bit.  

By the way, the forecast trend has been more and more for Humberto to tug Imelda away from the southeastern United States, so the effects of Imelda won't be nearly as bad as first feared. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, that big, fat, sunny, dry high pressure will stick around. Starting Friday and even more so during the weekend, the high will shift a little to the east. 

Because of that, the cool north breezes will shift and become very light puffs of wind from the southwest. That will bring back the warm air. Despite the relative chill on the opening two days of the month, October looks like it will come in hot. 

I wouldn't be super surprised if temperatures flirt with 80 degrees once again by Sunday or early next week. That's definitely unusual but not unheard of for early October. I don't know whether the entire month of October will be warm, but the balmy weather coming up for the beginning of this October fits a recent trend.

Three of the past four Octobers - at least as measure in Burlington - were among the top ten warmest on record. Maybe we'll do it again this year. 

In terms of rain, it's still looking grim heading into October. The dry air that's become established in Vermont will erase the slight gains against the drought we saw with last week's rain. Then it will continue deepening our serious drought. 

I've been saying our next chances of rain are around October 9.  I'm not sure yet, but that needed rain is beginning to look like it might be postponed a few more days. Let's hope not! 

Cooldown Coming To Vermont (Eventually) But No Throwback To "Frigid' Augusts Of The Past

If you're tired of the smoky, hazy, hot air we've experienced
in Vermont this summer, I present you with this image
of a crystal clear, clean frosty day, taken Feb. 4, 2021.

 We've still got a few more warm days to go before the strongest cold front since early June blows in on Sunday. 

Dry weather will mostly continue, keeping me concerned that a flash drought is starting. At the very least, Vermont will remain abnormally dry. 

The drying trend will continue big time today.   We can expect sunshine, warm temperatures and very dry air.  

The dew point - a rough measure of how humid it is out there, will stay relentlessly low today. Those dew points could fall into the upper 40s this afternoon which is quite arid for an August afternoon in Vermont.

We've still got a quick squirt of very warm to hot air coming in Saturday. The warmer valleys could reach 90 degrees which might well be the final day this year of 90 degree heat. We don't know for sure, of course, as sometimes we get heat waves into the first half of September.

The humidity will only rise modestly, so our crops and gardens will continue to get more and more parched. 

The cold front Sunday means business, but only in terms of temperature. At this point, rainfall looks lame with it, amounting to a quarter inch or less. Maybe a little more than that north, maybe a little less south. A few pinpoint places could get a little more in local downpours, but it won't be anything exciting. 

You'll certainly notice the temperature drop behind the cold front.  You'll feel it cooling off quite a bit  later in the day Sunday. By Monday, highs will only make it to within a few degrees of 70. Monday night will be in the 40s for most of us. 

There's a slight chance we'll get lucky and the cold front will stall just to our south. If that happens, a storm might form along it and give us a little more rain Tuesday. Especially south. But that scenario is iffy at this point. I'm not holding my breath yet for any showers then.

It will only slowly warm up the rest of next week, but still stay slightly cooler than average. Nothing unusual for August. We will be nowhere in the league of notable chilly Augusts of the past.  

PAST COLD AUGUSTS

The Death Valley heat earlier in the week was definitely a bit much.  But let's face it, at least we're getting a summer.  They're kind of short here in Vermont, even with climate change, but you want to at least get through most of June, July and August with at least several days of beach weather. 

It wasn't always like this.  We've had our share of disappointing Augusts that masqueraded  as Septembers.  

It started in the cold summer of 1962, when August four consecutive days mid month in which highs never got out of the mid-60s. 

Then came 1963. That year, only seven August days made it as high as 80 degrees, with the warmest being 84.. (For comparison, this year, we're only halfway through the month and Burlington has had 14 days that were at least 80 degrees.  

In 1963, eight days never made it to 70 degrees. One day, the 13h had a low of 46 a high of just 59 with over a half inch of rain. In other words, a somewhat raw October day in the middle of August .

The next year, August, 1964, brought slightly warmer afternoons, but way to chilly nights. Fifteen mornings that month in Vermont's banana belt of Burlington got under 50 degrees. On both August 1 and August 7, there was frost in some of the cold hollows of Vermont. On August 1, the temperature got down to 30 in South Londonderry and 32 in both Chelsea and Somerset.   

August, 1965 brought some summer weather early in the month, but fall made a very strong, early showing toward the end. Daytime temperatures stayed in the 50s for the final three days of the August, 1965  culminating in a hard freeze in some spots on August 31,

It got down to 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in Northfield. 

For the remainder of the 1960s ,each August was also cooler than normal, but not as bad as the years I mentioned here.

I don't know why 1960s summers were so chilly. It could have been just a natural cycle. Particulate and sulfur pollution in that era might have blunted the warmth of the sun a bit, too.  

Now that climate change has taken hold, it's highly unlikely we'll have such cold Augusts that we had in the 1960s. We'll still have relatively chilly Augusts from time to time. After all, climate change has not stopped weather patterns from bringing cooler air down from Canada. 

But that climate change has altered our perspective of summers. Actually the whole year.  The chances for hot Augusts, or hot any month are way up. For August, the top four hottest Augusts in Burlington have all happened since 2016. 

Burlington has 15 years in the top ten list of hottest summers due to ties. (Measured as temperatures between June 1 an August 31).  Eight of those hottest summers have happened since 2005, and there's a chance this summer might join this list. 

As I always like to say, this ain't your grandfather's climate. 

Sunday Vermont Update: The Smoke Is Back, And How Dry We Are, And Will Be

Image from firesmoke.ca  shows smoke from fires in
central Canada is spreading far and wide in
North America, including here in Vermont 

The smoke is back. 

And it will probably harass us off and on all week while rain (mostly) stays resolutely away from the Green Mountain State. 

Oddly strong high pressure will take the blame and the credit for a long period of dry weather, often smoky skies and warm summer weather. 

Saturday started off pretty clear but the haze thickened through the day. The thickest smoke stayed aloft, but some of the pollution, inevitably, made it to the ground. Evening was a hazy mess, at least in northern parts of the state.

Canada has gotten even smokier as fires have intensify and grown widespread in central parts of that vast nation. New, large fires have also exploded in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

There's now a hell of a lot of smoke belching into the skies above North America. 

This is a widespread smoke attack. Air quality alerts have been in effect for a few days, and remain on in places like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.    Most of Maine and the northern half of New Hampshire joined the air quality alert party Saturday afternoon, warning residents that most of today would be smoky.

By late Saturday afternoon, the National Weather Service office in Burlington, in their forecast discussion, were already monitoring the smoke, which had already turned our skies hazy and greyed out some of our Green Mountain views.

Before dinnertime, the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources issued our own air quality alert.  

TODAY 

That bad air alert is now in effect at least until midnight tonight. The breezes, which had been from the north, have shifted to the south. That will keep the worst of the air toward northern Vermont. The smoke will be even thicker up in Quebec and Ontario.

Still there is some air flow aloft coming from the opposite direction - the north, which would bring more smoke our way.  High pressure systems feature sinking air, so some of that smoke aloft will make it down here to the ground, where we all live and breathe.

The bottom line is that air quality was moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups this morning.  That already kinda bad air might worsen a little more through the day,  but will not be as bad as the abysmal air quality we endured on July 26.

It'll still be a little rough on the lungs, though.     

Otherwise, another comfortably cool morning will morph into a warm, sunny, if hazy day.  The humidity will stay perfectly reasonable, 

MONDAY

 Weather systems - both storms and areas of fair, sunny weather - tend to be weak this time of year.  But high pressure is growing over Quebec and New England.

This high pressure will be at near record strength for August. It's more typical of the super strong high pressures that give us periods of Indian Summer weather in October if we get lucky. High pressure means sinking air. Sinking air means it's really hard for rain clouds to form. Hence the very dry forecast. 

The southern end of this high pressure over New England is weakening in favor of a center over Quebec. This will send a weak cold front our way tomorrow.  

The air is so dry that at most the front might produce isolated light showers. More than 90 percent of us won't see any rain at all. The very few of us that do see raindrops will get only a trace to maybe a couple hundredths of an inch, Not even enough to wet things down at all. 

The front will bring another wave of smoke with it. so I anticipate some possible new air quality alerts this week. Highs should make it into the 80s again. 

REST OF WEEK

The high pressure will sit strong all week, only slowly dropping south from Quebec through New England between now and next weekend. It's huge, and will extend down as far south as Georgia this week. 

Monday's cold front will make Tuesday a degree or two "cooler" with highs "only" in the 78 to 84 degree range for most of us. 

The orientation of the high, and the fact that it pushed last week's cold front almost all the way to the Gulf Coast. That will deep tropical humidity away from us probably at least through the end of the week. 

That means the air will stay fairly comfortable (aside from any smoke).  I suppose an isolated shower or two could figure out a way to develop over the mountains on one or two afternoons this week, but almost everybody will stay dry. 

We might, maybe could get a bit of a break from the smoke later in the week. Southerly winds in the worst often fire zone in Manitoba and Saskatchewan later this week might temporarily drive most of the smoke north into Nunavut and western Hudson Bay.  

Back here in Vermont, the odd August combination of daily sunshine, sort of low humidity and warm temperatures sets the stage for a growing forest fire risk.

The brush fire risk was already high in the Champlain Valley this weekend, and I imagine the moderate risk on most of the rest of the state will increase to high this week. Watch those campfires, cigarette butts and backyard burns. 

Also, unlikely but possible is the risk of a flash drought.  

This is a weird, long stretch of dry weather with a lack of humidity, quite uncharacteristic of August. If this continues all month, then we have to start worrying about too-dry conditions and possible drought.

It's too early to sound the alarm on that. We could still get a lot of rain starting mid month, we just don't know yet. But I already have to water my gardens thoroughly today for the first time this summer, and that state of affairs should continue. 

The next chance of any more widespread showers looks to be a week from tomorrow, and even that looks iffy at this point.  

June In Vermont: Warm, Dry, But Humid, With A Historic Heat Wave

A very chill Henry the Weather Dog in St.Albans,
Vermont calculating in his head the June weather
statistics for Vermont. Being originally from
San Antonio, Texas, Henry was not as gobsmacked
by the record heat wave we experienced last week
as the rest of us Vermonters. 

 June is over, the votes are tallied and we find that Vermont had yet another warm month. 

As tallied in Burlington, the average temperature for June, 2025 came out to 70.3 degrees. That brings us to a tie with last year for the seventh warmest June on record in Burlington. 

The month features temperatures that usually leaned to the warm side, but never deviated much from normal until the historic heat wave of June 23-24. Those two days really skewed the month to the warm side. 

North Springfield, Vermont reached 103 degrees on June 23, making it the hottest June temperature ever reliably recorded anywhere in the Green Mountain State. All six New England states broke or tied their June records. 

I've already written a lot about that heat wave, so regular readers already get the idea. It was an absolutely bonkers couple of days in an otherwise pretty mellow month. 

Overall, northern Vermont was warmer relative to average than southern parts of state. Remember, we're now in a "new" normal due to climate change. "Normal" temperatures are hotter than they used to be. Even by that new metric, northern Vermont in June was 2.5 to 3.5 degrees above that new average.

Southern Vermont was only about 1.5 degrees warmer than this "new" average. 

For the first six months of this year. Burlington is running about 1.4 degrees warmer than the "new normal."  That's actually not as warm as recent years,  This year looks like it might break an incredible streak of climate record in Burlington,  Each of the past five years were among the top seven hottest on record in Burlington, 

Unless the second half of 2025 is incredibly warm, we might not make the top 10 list this year. 

RAINFALL

June has a wet reputation, especially in the past few decades. However, June, 2025 bucked the trend by being a dry month. Which is OK, since May was so wet. 

Burlington had just 1.99 inches of rain, a little less than half normal. It was the second driest June since 2000, and the 24th driest since 1884, when reliable records started. The rest of northern Vermont also couldn't muster even half of the month's normal rainfall. 

Southern Vermont did a little better, but precipitation was on the light side there, too. Even with the lighter rainfall, flash flooding on June 6 did cause some damage across parts of southeastern Vermont. 

We also continued Vermont's reputation for weekend rain. Last weekend in Burlington was the 28th weekend in a row with at least a little precipitation. That's getting close to the all time record of 30 consecutive weekends with rain or snow. 

Wildfire smoke made an unwelcome appearance once again in early June as Canadian wildfires raged.  The smoke mercifully tended to diminish - at least for now - later in the month. 

Severe thunderstorms often strike in June, but this year, there weren't many. An odd brief tornado did touch down across the pond in Beekmantown, New York on June 10. Otherwise, there was only a small smattering of storm damage reports in Vermont on June 19 and 24, but nothing widespread.

LOOKING AHEAD

It's always a big gamble trying to judge what the following month's weather will be.

At the end of May, forecasters said Vermont's June would be warm, so that was correct. It was a tossup as to whether June would be wet or dry. It ended up being dry. I can't call the rain forecast for June wrong, because there really wasn't a forecast. 

Long range forecasts have consistently indicated a hot July. That may well be.  But I've seen a few instances in which everybody claimed a particular month would be incredibly hot or incredibly cold only to find the opposite actually occurred. 

For the record, NOAA says the best chances for above normal temperatures in the United States in July are in the central Rocky Mountains, central Texas and the Northeast, including Vermont. NOAA's July precipitation forecast for Vermont leans slightly toward the wet side, but it's a pretty tentative forecast. 

We'll tell all about what really happened on August 1

 

World Had Second Warmest May as #2 Trend Continues; U.S. Had Second Warmest Spring On Record

For the umpteenth time in recent years, the world saw
red in May, 2025, indicating almost every place was
warmer than the 20th century average. It was the
2nd hottest May on record for the globe. 

Most of the climatologists had said that this year would not quite measure up to the worldwide heat of 2024. 

More data that came in this week indicate that so far, at least, that prediction is coming true, but 2025 is pretty damn close to being the hottest as climate change rages on.

The world had is second warmest May on record, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. That's been the trend the entire year so far. Most months have been second warmest, behind 2024.

It's pretty much a lock that 2025 will be yet another year that scores among the top five warmest the world has had, at least since reliable records began more than a century and a half ago,  Still, experts give 2025 only a 1 percent chance of being THE hottest on record.

We'd need some pretty off the chains heat for the rest of the year to see that.

May's second hottest ranking is concerning, of course. And of course meteorological spring, running from March 1 through May 31, was the world's second hottest on record.

Averaging out through the world, May's temperature was right around 2 degrees Fahrenheit, (1.1 degrees C) warmer than the 20th century average. 

The ten warmest Mays have all happened since 2014. If you are under the age of 49, you've never seem a global May that was even the slightest bit cooler than the 20th century average. 

In May, the hottest spots relative to average were the Arctic, British Isles, parts of the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean,  areas of the western Indian ocean and southwestern Pacific Ocean. 

As usual, relatively chilly spots were hard to find in May.  The coolest areas, relative to normal, were only near or just a little under the 20th century averages. These semi-cool spots including most of India, part of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Iceland, large sections of Greenland, the southeastern Pacific Ocean, parts of central and eastern Europe and eastern Antarctica.

A strange heat wave hit Iceland and Greenland in May. Temperatures reached as high as 80  degrees in Iceland during the May 15-21 heat wave, which is unprecedented for May and a national record high for the month of May.  So was the 58 degree reading at a weather station in Greenland on May 19.  

The heatwave also got Greenland's summer melt season off to an ominously early start. I don't know if the warm spells will keep hitting Greenland for the rest of the summer, but we should hope not.

Meteorological spring for Earth (March 1 to May 31) was also the second warmest on record, after 2024. 

Meanwhile, as I reported recently record and unprecedented heat waves have been hitting many parts of the world this month. We in Vermont got a nice taste of that Monday and Tuesday, didn't we? It's looking like June will be another top tier hot month around the world, too. 

UNITED STATES

May in the United States was overall the 25th warmest out of the past 131 years on the warm side across much of the United States. 

The West Coast and Southeast were warmest relative to average, Florida had its second warmest May on record. The only state that was fairly substantially on the chilly side was Oklahoma, which had its 36th coldest May out of the past 131 years. 

May was the nation's third wettest on record, powered largely by torrential downpours up and down the East Coast and in the Southeast. 

Alabama had its wettest May on record. Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont each had their second wettest May. Every state along the East Coast had one of their top 10 wettest Mays on record except Florida and Maine. And those two states were wetter had average.

The only relatively dry states were along the West Coast, and in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Meteorological spring, March 1 through May 31, was the second warmest on record for United States.

 

Even Normally Damp UK Is Burning This Spring

Wildfire burning this past week near Cumbernauld, Scotland

 There's been more of our share of spring wildfires around the world in the winter and so far this spring. 

The latest place to burn: Damp Old England, Ireland and Scotland. Hundreds of brush and wildfires have been burning, and are still burning in the UK. 

Yep, you read that right. 

They've had a stretch of unusually dry weather, and wildfires are burning through vast areas of the UK.  The worst was expected to peak this weekend.

Per a Washington Post report from Friday: 

"Firefighters in Northern Ireland reported nearly 300 wildfires in the week ending Thursday. Many were significant and started intentionally, but then ran rampant under conditions conducive to fire.

One large blaze was ongoing near Glasgow, in southwestern Scotland. It started Thursday and glowed ominously in the hills near the city overnight. Conflagrations were also burning or being tamped out near Galloway in Scotland and Cornwall in England, among other spots."

Extreme wildfire warnings were up in Scotland through Saturday. 

A BBC map showing the many locations of wildfires
this past week in, of all places Scotland. 

A change in the weather is forecast for Great Britain, which might finally bring some rain next week. But ahead of that rain, winds are expected to increase, so the fire danger will get even worse. 

The reason it's been so oddly warm and dry in the British Isles is a blocked weather pattern that has kept warm high pressure sitting over or near the region. 

This has blocked the usual parade of storms and cold fronts from moving eastward off the Atlantic Ocean to spread the usual April showers into England, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland

This has led to a spring drought, exacerbated by unusually high temperatures for this time of year. It's been in the 70s on some recent days in Northern Ireland and Scotland.  Usually, high temperatures in that region are in the low to mid 50s during April. 

Climate change might have also had a hand in all this. Spring is the most rapidly warming season in the UK as the world keeps heating up. 

The UK has followed in the footsteps of other areas have exceptionally bad spring wildfire seasons. 

Late March wildfires in South Korea killed at least 24 people and destroyed hundreds of buildings, some of them historic. 

In the United States, damaging forest and wildfires swept through parts of several eastern states, especially in the Carolinas back in March.

Earlier in March, wildfires destroyed hundreds of homes in Texas, Kansas and especially Oklahoma. 

It's spring fire season here in Vermont, too, but we've been lucky so far. True, it hasn't been a nice spring lately, but frequent rain and snowfalls have so far tamped things down. Through April 8, Vermont has only see 13 small brush and wildfires that have burned a total of 8.5 acres. 

Still, we're not out of the woods. Until it green up out there, a few days of dry, windy weather could set things ablaze. In the short term. rain and even a little snow are in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.