Vermont Goes Out Of The Heat (Sort Of) And Into The Smoke

It was already sort of hazy as of 10 a.m. as he "Hazecam" view
from\the University of Vermont shows. Note the it's 
hazier on the right side of the photo. That's to the north
and thicker haze and smoke is coming from that direction
for the rest of today. 

 The worst of the heat wave is waning in Vermont now after many places had three 90 degree days in a row. 

One thing I didn't take into consideration, though, when I squawked Friday morning about how much better the weather will be,was the annoying forest fie smoke that's blowing in,   

Here's what's happening: 

TODAY

As expected, a weak cold front is coming through today, from Quebec It's not an impressive front, not at all. No big whoosh of cool, refreshing air.

 Just a trend toward somewhat cooler air and eventually, by late today or tonight, it will no longer be air you can wear. More like run of the mill low-ish, pretty reasonable  humidity.   

We'll still have highs well into the 80s for most of Vermont today, maybe low 80s far north, near 90 warmest valleys south. As we start the day today, the dreaded dew point will start out nasty, in the upper 60s. But it will gradually decline, with that drier air spreading north to south. 

Isolated thunderstorms or showers could accompany this transition, but it won't be anything widespread or dramatic. Most of the showers and storms should be in southern Vermont. 

The problem is this sorta, kinda cooler air is grabbing some smoke and sending it our way.  Some of it's coming from Colorado and other western states. Another big chunk of smoke is coming from a nasty fire burning a little south of James Bay, Canada. 

So, what was supposed to be somewhat refreshing air will have us choking in smoke. It most likely won't be as bad as some of the worst smoke attacks we've had in recent years, but it will be bad enough. 

Nevertheless, an air quality alert is in effect for the northern half of Vermont now through midnight. The smoke starts to come in as soon as the first hint of somewhat less humid air begins to arrive, so it was starting to get hazy and smoky in northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Satellite photos shows the smoke isn't as thick as some past episodes, but it's staying closer to the ground than many other past smoke attacks. 

SUNDAY

The worst of the smoke should be gone, but it will probably remain rather hazy.  It'll still be a nice day, though there should be some extra afternoon clouds. It will also be somewhat less humid. It'll be very warm again, with highs in the 80s. So, unlike what I said yesterday, it won't be a stellar, perfect summer day like last Sunday. But it will still be plenty nice.

MONDAY-THURSDAY

A mostly dry, very warm period. That disturbance we thought would soak southern Vermont Monday looks like it might be going even further south. So at this point, it's looking like only far southern Vermont will get a little wet.

We'll have a slow increase in heat and humidity as we go from Monday to Thursday. It will never get as hot or steamy as it was over the past three days but hot enough. Highs each day will get well into the 80s with some low 90s appearing Wednesday and Thursday.

It's going to be  dry period, despite the kinda high humidity we'll see. There might be isolated showers or storms from time to time but don't bet on it. You'll need to water gardens and plants and things like that. 

Our next shot at substantial rain doesn't come along until next Friday. 

One More Really Hot Day In Vermont, Then It Gets (Slightly) Better

National Weather Service heat risk map for today 
calls for another day of severe to extreme heat in 
the eastern U.S. Purple shading is the most intense het.

The overnight low early this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 76 degrees, so there wasn't much overnight relief from the heat. 

No relief is forthcoming today, though there is at least a dim light at the end of the heat tunnel More on that in a bit. 

THE HEAT SO FAR

A tiny saving grace is the heat hasn't been quite as intense as expected in Vermont, with daily highs running a couple degrees lower than forecasts for the past couple of days. 

That's a contrast to pretty much everywhere in the eastern United States, where the heat has lived up to advance billing.    Yesterday, in Frederick, Maryland,  where I was visiting, I experienced the hottest weather I've ever been in, with a reading of 102 degrees.

In New York City, Central Park reached 100 degrees Friday, the first time it's gotten that hot since July 18. 2012, when it was also 100. Washington DC reached a record high of 102 degrees Friday. The same high temperature of 102 is predicted in Washington today and tomorrow, making Fourth of July celebrations downright dangerous. 

Here in Vermont, it reached 96 in Burlington Friday, short of the predicted peak of 100 degrees.

Montpelier reached 90, hot enough to tie the record high for the date.

So this heat wave hasn't turned out to be the historic Vermont heat wave some of us expected.  It's still hot and very humid. Dangerously so. That Vermont has been falling slightly short of predicted high temperatures doesn't reduce the risk.  The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it is on the human body. We're on day three today, so those that are vulnerable to the heat are having their worst day yet.

Today is a perfect day to kidnap your elderly or ill neighbors and take them to a cool place. 

Thunderstorms have been harassing Vermonters, too. Friday wasn't as wild as Thursday. But some pretty good, non-severe thunderstorms blew through parts of central Vermont in the evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington also issued a special weather statement for  a strong storm that clipped the Northeast Kingdom, but that storm quickly dissipated.

Let's get into the specifics of what's coming next. 

TODAY:

It will be almost as hot as yesterday. It really won't feel any different than yesterday. Most of the state will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s for highs in the Banana Belt hot valleys. 

Once again, because of the heat and the humidity, thunderstorms are a risk. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread or severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chance of strong storms being south and west of Interstate 89 today. In that location there's a marginal, (level one out of five risk)  for storms today. 

More storms and showers should be scattered about tonight ahead of a super weak cold front heading toward us. It will still be a horribly stuffy night.

SATURDAY

Some relief begins. The risk of showers and storms diminishes to nothing north during the morning, and that trend will drift southward during the day. More importantly, you'll start to notice a change in the air during the afternoon and evening. Especially north. It won't turn much less humid, but it will feel a little better. 

Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there. will start out near 70 in the morning, which is terribly steamy. By evening, the dew point will be in the OK but not great low 60s.

SUNDAY

The dew points will continue to drift a little lower by Saturday night and Sunday.  That means dawn will break Sunday with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 60, which will feel much better. 

Sunday should be a classic Vermont summer day, much like last Sunday was. That means highs in the 80s, a little warmer than average. Humidity will be reasonable. 

NEXT WEEK

Monday morning will start off cool and dry, with lows in the 50s to near 60, so pretty nice. The warmth and the humidity will creep up again. Some sort of disturbance looks like it will pass  through on Monday. Early indications suggest some heavy rain might fall on southern Vermont with much lighter stuff up north. 

It's an iffy little system, though, so we'll probable be some adjustments to the forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably Thursday  turn really warm and humid again, but not as bad as today. Still, warmer spots could touch 90 again midweek. 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.  

Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

Rain Is Coming To Vermont Again, Could Be Heavy In Spots

Clouds blowing in from some showers near Plattsburgh,
New York were already beginning to fill the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at 12:40 p.m. today.
There's a rising chance of showers, especially late
this afternoon and we're in for a wet night, with
more showers and storms Friday. 

I had internet problems this morning so I was unable to post earlier, but the glitch seems to have disappeared, so I'll do a noontime Vermont update today instead.

I thought yesterday would be the first day without rain in the Green Mountain State since June 16. 

But a couple raindrops landed on me in Enosburgh yesterday morning. And it looked like a shower or two clipped the extreme northeast corners of the  state in the afternoon. More rain is on the horizon

REST OF TODAY

Today has a good shot at being the ninth consecutive day with rain somewhere in the state.   

A couple showers or even a rumble of thunder could enter western Vermont as soon as this afternoon. Mostly later this afternoon, but I noticed a couple very small downpours had formed near Plattsburgh, New York as of 12:30 p.m. But a warm front attached to a weak area of low pressure that's now near Michigan. All of Vermont will get wet overnight and early tomorrow morning. 

The best guess for now is northern areas should get a quarter inch of rain or so. Central Vermont gets a third of an inch and souther areas are closer to three quarters of an inch. There will be a lot of exceptions  to this, as some heavier downpours and thunderstorms might be mixed in with all this. 

NOAA has central and southern Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding tonight because of the risk of heavy downpours from very late this afternoon through tonight. . If any flooding does happen, it will be isolated and probably quite minor.

FRIDAY

There should be something of a break in the action during the morning, when showers become generally lighter and much more widely scattered. Bur then a weather front enters the picture in the afternoon. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a cold front because the air behind it isn't really any colder than the air in front of it.

But a front is zone in which winds converge, and that will be enough to fire up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Those showers and storms will be pretty widespread around Vermont, so almost everybody will get wet again during the afternoon and evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction center gives southern Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning one or two spots could see some damaging winds. 

As is always the case with thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable Friday afternoon and evening. A few places might get a real gullywasher, enough to maybe erode some steep gravel driveways or roads in a couple spots. 

A handful of spots will get practically nothing, while many of us will just see some typical showers nd storms. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Increasing heat and humidity is the story Saturday through the middle of next week. This weekend won't be too bad with highs in the low 80s amid moderate humidity. But that humidity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday. 

It's unclear how hot it will get. That depends on how many clouds, showers and storms are around. But warmer valleys have a shot at 90 degrees.  Even if doesn't get that hot, nights will be really stuffy due to the muggy air

Forecasters Back Off SLIGHTLY From Torrid Vermont Upcoming Week Forecast, But It Will Still Be Hot

Early Sunday afternoon satellite pic shows Vermont
in the middle of a big cloudy patch that will
keep the rest of today cloudy and damp. But
looks at those clear skies to the northwest\
in Ontario and central Quebec. That's our
weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Just landed after my return trip from Minnesota, so you saw no morning post today. So I'll try a very late, afternoon attempt. 

As expected, a few scattered strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday. The worst of them seem to cross central Vermont in a west to east band very roughly about  20 or 30 miles north of Route 4. 

I'm kinda sure there was some tree damage across the middle of Vermont, but the only report of damage I see so far is the several trees fell along Route 73 between Whiting and Sudbury. 

As you'd expect, rainfall was super variable with the scattering of storms yesterday. Many places, as expected got somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain.

 But there were those torrential downpours, as you'd expect. The biggest totals I saw were  near the Canadian border: 1.85 inches in Montgomery Center, 1.58 inches at Derby Line and 1.54 inches 

Meanwhile, a few towns got seriously cheated. West Windsor reported just 0.05 inches of rain. 

During this morning and early afternoon, a final band of rain was working north to south across Vermont, As you can tell, it's pretty cool today under the clouds and showers and north winds, with most places holding in the 60s as of early afternoon. 

Except for nights and very early mornings at the beginning of the week, this will be last cool weather you'll see for awhile. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Judging from the satellite photos, we won't get much clearing today. Maybe some places will get some sun in the evening. Since it's cool this afternoon, we're set up for a comfortable night.  Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with some low 50s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley. 

Monday: A beauty. Sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s to around 80.

Tuesday: Another nice one. Warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a couple upper 80s in the warmest valleys. The humidity will stay low.

Wednesday: Here's where trouble starts. Humidity levels will creep up. Forecasters have backed off on the idea of three or four consecutive days near 90 degrees in the warmer valleys. Instead, we'll probably wait for a couple of days for a shot at 90. 

A weather disturbance that was expected to be a nothing burger a few days ago will now have a little oomph when it arrives here. Nothing dramatic, just some showers and maybe some embedded thunder. Highs should still make it into the 80s as it turns noticeably more humid.

Thursday/Friday: These will be the hot days, at least if the forecast holds. It is subject to change. As it is, we might seem some showers and storms both days as highs potentially reach a humid 90 degrees.

Next Weekend.  Frankly, not sure yet. Depends upon whether some cold fronts arrive to rescue us from the humidity or not. Cold fronts would also mean a potential shower risk. But don't make plans based on the weather for next weekend. We really have almost no idea what will happen then

Sunday Vermont Update: The Smoke Is Back, And How Dry We Are, And Will Be

Image from firesmoke.ca  shows smoke from fires in
central Canada is spreading far and wide in
North America, including here in Vermont 

The smoke is back. 

And it will probably harass us off and on all week while rain (mostly) stays resolutely away from the Green Mountain State. 

Oddly strong high pressure will take the blame and the credit for a long period of dry weather, often smoky skies and warm summer weather. 

Saturday started off pretty clear but the haze thickened through the day. The thickest smoke stayed aloft, but some of the pollution, inevitably, made it to the ground. Evening was a hazy mess, at least in northern parts of the state.

Canada has gotten even smokier as fires have intensify and grown widespread in central parts of that vast nation. New, large fires have also exploded in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

There's now a hell of a lot of smoke belching into the skies above North America. 

This is a widespread smoke attack. Air quality alerts have been in effect for a few days, and remain on in places like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.    Most of Maine and the northern half of New Hampshire joined the air quality alert party Saturday afternoon, warning residents that most of today would be smoky.

By late Saturday afternoon, the National Weather Service office in Burlington, in their forecast discussion, were already monitoring the smoke, which had already turned our skies hazy and greyed out some of our Green Mountain views.

Before dinnertime, the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources issued our own air quality alert.  

TODAY 

That bad air alert is now in effect at least until midnight tonight. The breezes, which had been from the north, have shifted to the south. That will keep the worst of the air toward northern Vermont. The smoke will be even thicker up in Quebec and Ontario.

Still there is some air flow aloft coming from the opposite direction - the north, which would bring more smoke our way.  High pressure systems feature sinking air, so some of that smoke aloft will make it down here to the ground, where we all live and breathe.

The bottom line is that air quality was moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups this morning.  That already kinda bad air might worsen a little more through the day,  but will not be as bad as the abysmal air quality we endured on July 26.

It'll still be a little rough on the lungs, though.     

Otherwise, another comfortably cool morning will morph into a warm, sunny, if hazy day.  The humidity will stay perfectly reasonable, 

MONDAY

 Weather systems - both storms and areas of fair, sunny weather - tend to be weak this time of year.  But high pressure is growing over Quebec and New England.

This high pressure will be at near record strength for August. It's more typical of the super strong high pressures that give us periods of Indian Summer weather in October if we get lucky. High pressure means sinking air. Sinking air means it's really hard for rain clouds to form. Hence the very dry forecast. 

The southern end of this high pressure over New England is weakening in favor of a center over Quebec. This will send a weak cold front our way tomorrow.  

The air is so dry that at most the front might produce isolated light showers. More than 90 percent of us won't see any rain at all. The very few of us that do see raindrops will get only a trace to maybe a couple hundredths of an inch, Not even enough to wet things down at all. 

The front will bring another wave of smoke with it. so I anticipate some possible new air quality alerts this week. Highs should make it into the 80s again. 

REST OF WEEK

The high pressure will sit strong all week, only slowly dropping south from Quebec through New England between now and next weekend. It's huge, and will extend down as far south as Georgia this week. 

Monday's cold front will make Tuesday a degree or two "cooler" with highs "only" in the 78 to 84 degree range for most of us. 

The orientation of the high, and the fact that it pushed last week's cold front almost all the way to the Gulf Coast. That will deep tropical humidity away from us probably at least through the end of the week. 

That means the air will stay fairly comfortable (aside from any smoke).  I suppose an isolated shower or two could figure out a way to develop over the mountains on one or two afternoons this week, but almost everybody will stay dry. 

We might, maybe could get a bit of a break from the smoke later in the week. Southerly winds in the worst often fire zone in Manitoba and Saskatchewan later this week might temporarily drive most of the smoke north into Nunavut and western Hudson Bay.  

Back here in Vermont, the odd August combination of daily sunshine, sort of low humidity and warm temperatures sets the stage for a growing forest fire risk.

The brush fire risk was already high in the Champlain Valley this weekend, and I imagine the moderate risk on most of the rest of the state will increase to high this week. Watch those campfires, cigarette butts and backyard burns. 

Also, unlikely but possible is the risk of a flash drought.  

This is a weird, long stretch of dry weather with a lack of humidity, quite uncharacteristic of August. If this continues all month, then we have to start worrying about too-dry conditions and possible drought.

It's too early to sound the alarm on that. We could still get a lot of rain starting mid month, we just don't know yet. But I already have to water my gardens thoroughly today for the first time this summer, and that state of affairs should continue. 

The next chance of any more widespread showers looks to be a week from tomorrow, and even that looks iffy at this point.  

One More Hot Day, But The Big Vermont (Temporary) Cool Down Is Just Starting

Our outdoor living summer living space in St. Albans,
Vermont. It looks like the weather will be conducive
to enjoying it most of the time for the next week. 

It was another warm, stuffy night in Vermont, and it will be another hot one today. 

But the heat is starting to wane. It will be slow at first. Today, you'll barely notice the improvement. But the cool down will pick up the pace within the next day or two.  

But that doesn't mean summer is over. More warm weather is on the way.  

It got to 91 degrees in Burlington Monday, the 12th time it has gotten to 90 this year. Springfield had its 13th such reading of the year.  

It's also highly likely July, 2025 will be one of Burlington's top 10 hottest Julys. That would make it three Julys in a row that are in the top ten hottest. 

Since June was tied for seventh warmest, we might well have one of our hottest summers on record. If August is warm.  These aren't your grandparents' Vermont summers, that's for sure. 

August will start off cool, but not necessarily stay that way. More on that in a bit.

TODAY

Even though temperatures before dawn in some areas like the Champlain Valley were in the 70s, it won't necessarily be another 90 degree day. The air flow has shifted into the northwest, starting the change in the weather, 

A weak disturbance in that northwest flow has brought air that's a touch cooler than yesterday. Maybe. And if it is cooler, it'll just be by a degree or two.  I give Burlington less than a 50/50 shot of making it to 90 degrees again today. But who knows?  

That allegedly cooler air today won't really make it into southern Vermont, so Springfield has a good shot at seeing their 14th day of the year to reach 90 degrees.  

I suppose there could be an isolated shower or rumble of thunder this afternoon, but don't count on it. Despite the relative warmth and humidity the ingredients just aren't there.

WEDNESDAY

The "real" cold front should come through tomorrow to drop our temperatures. But it will come through in pieces. That means the front probably won't be able to create much of an organized line of big storms to mark the change.

Instead there will probably be a broken batch of scattered showers and storms  coming through. They will be hit and miss.  Some places won't see any rain at all. A small minority of us will see a nice but fairly brief torrential downpour. The chances of a severe storm are not zero, but don't count on any barn busters. If there is something rambunctious, it's most likely south of Route 4. 

Most of us will just have light rains coming from the cold front. Aside from the few places bullseyed by the few real storms we'll see, count on a quarter inch or less of rain. As noted, some rain gauges will remain dry. 

 It'll still be fairly warm and muggy. In fact, some southern Vermont towns like Springfield could hit 90 one last time. But some of us, especially in the north, will start to feel a change in the air later in the day.

THURSDAY

It now looks like the flip to cooler and drier air has some complications. Wednesday's cold front looks like it will get hung up in southern New England temporarily, and a ripple of a storm will probably form along it.

This thing looks like it will dump a huge boatload of rain on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States, possibly causing some flooding.

Some of the models are throwing the rain back northward for a time on Thursday. Far southern Vermont could end up with a drenching rain on Thursday. Even though it's only a couple days away, we still don't know for sure whether that will happen, so forecasters will have to keep an eye on it. 

It's a little dry in southern Vermont, so if a good soaking does manage to materialize, that would be a good thing, actually. 

We also don't know yet how far north the rain will get. There's still a good chance it won't rain at all in the north. But it might not be quite as sunny up there as we originally thought.

We do know everyone in Vermont will find the air much cooler Thursday. And much less humid, at least  in the north.

BEYOND THURSDAY

The weather does look delightful Friday through Sunday, at least mostly.

The air will be super dry and comfortable through that period. It should be sunny, too. Delightful! Except for the risk of wildfire smoke. Since the air is coming from Canada, and central Canada is still burning, we get smoke. 

It's a little early to know how much smoke we'll see, but this pleasant spell of weather might not feature nice blue skies, but some haze.

I keep saying it's going to be cool toward Friday and Saturday but not really. The nights will have a bit o a chill, getting into the 40s in many places and low 50s in the Champlain Valley. But daytimes will reach the comfortable 70s.

Temperatures should get quite warm again starting Sunday and continuing much of next week. I don't know if we'll have more 90 degree weather. That remains to be seen. But summer ain't over in Vermont!

 

Hot Times Coming Back To Vermont But It Probably Won't Last All That Long

The gardens around my shed and elsewhere on my
St. Albans, Vermont property are starting to take
on that ragged, late summer look as we head 
toward August. After more heat and humidity coming
in the next few days, another cool spell 
looks like it wants to welcome us into August.

 I hope you enjoyed another cool, crisp Vermont morning today, because it's back to the heat and humidity, for awhile, anyway. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Today will still be reasonable, and actually perfect for summertime outdoor fun. The humidity will start to increase, but it really won't be all that bad. 

 So taking a hike or other outdoor activity won't necessarily kill you. But grab the sunscreen and the water to drink if you do go out to conquer Camels Hump or something like that. 

Temperatures under sunshine will get into the low or even mid 80s in many places, so it's a great beach day. 

Also, since winds will be light, no need to worry about dangerous conditions on the lakes. Though winds might be so light that sailboats might not work perfectly. But all in all, enjoy today. 

Because you won't necessarily like tomorrow. 

The humidity will surge in tonight. You'll notice it getting stuffy. And we've got at least one more 90 degree, oppressive day to get through. The record high tomorrow in Burlington is 95 degrees. We could get close to that, but chances are we'll just miss. 

In Montpelier, the record high of 89 tomorrow is in jeopardy. But St. Johnsbury's record high tomorrow of 95 looks safe.

On hot, humid days, we often have thunderstorms.  Not this time, though. The chances of storms Thursday are very, very low, due to lots of sinking air with high pressure nearby. I suppose one or two could briefly get going over the mountains, but those will be few and far between.

There might be some activity near the Canadian border in the evening. There's also a chance that people in northern Vermont might, maybe get a light show of potential heat lightning Thursday night from storms in Quebec. 

As a reminder, heat lightning is just regular lightning that's too far away for us to hear the thunder. 

FRIDAY

Friday could be a stormy day for some of us. A cold front will be slowly pressing down from Quebec. It all depends on the timing to determine how things go.

Anytime you get a cold front coming in during the day during hot, humid weather, you risk severe thunderstorms. 

If the cold front is a quickie, coming through earlier in the day,  northern Vermont might escape severe weather as the front will have passed. The slightly cooler more stable air behind the front would squash any wannabe thunderstorms. But northern areas would still get some rain out of the deal. 

 In this quicker case, southern Vermont would be under the gun for scattered severe weather, as storms will have a chance to build in the heat before the cold front finally makes its way to southern parts of the state in the afternoon,

If the front is slower, northern and central Vermont gets the storms. Southern Vermont would just be hot and humid again, as the storms wouldn't get there until evening, when they would be losing some of their punch. 

I hope we'll have a better bead on the front's timing by tomorrow, and whether there might be some strong storms and where. 

 FRIDAY-TUESDAY

There's not a lot of cooler air behind Friday's front, so summer weather should continue for awhile. Generally speaking, it will be warm, with highs in the 80s Saturday through Tuesday. Humidity will be moderately high. A disturbance could kick off a few showers and storms on Sunday, we'll see about that. 

On Tuesday, a stronger cold front will be approaching with its storms and rain.

And then....

AUTUMN RETURNS?

NOAA's outlook for early August has a strong signal
or leaning toward odds of cooler than average 
temperatures for at least few days 

There's a strong signal that next week's cold front - coming at us as July closes and August begins - could be another summer doozy, introducing a cool spell even chillier than the one we just had .

So much for the dog days of August. 

The forecast I've been mentioning stays the same. The heat dome in the middle and eastern part of the nation will migrate westward, allowing for a northwest flow to hit the northeastern United States. 

This looks like it will be an expansive break from summer heat, encompassing most of the Great Lakes area, Northeast and Middle Atlantic States.

It's a little soon to figure out how cool it will get, and how long the lower temperatures will last. But this could be a slightly nippier - and maybe longer lasting spell of uncharacteristically fresh summer weather. 

Early guesses point to about at least a good four days of cool weather. It's a long range forecast, so no promises. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. 

There's also still time for more hot, humid weather in mid-August and beyond, though. Don't expect summer to end next week. It'll probably be just a pause. 

"Corn Sweat" (It's A Thing!) Worsening Midwest Heat Dome This Week

"Corn sweat" is making a spell of heat and super high
humidity in the Midwest even worse. A squirt of that
steamy air is due here in Vermont/New England at
the end of this week. 

The dreaded "heat dome" is taking up residence over the middle of the United States. 

Sinking air under the high pressure will compress the air, heating it up. The hot sun will add to it. Weak winds from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will turn the air disgustingly humid over wide areas of the Midwest. 

Heat warnings and advisories today extend from South Dakota and Minnesota southward along a roughly 500 mile wide band sort of following the Mississippi River all the way to the Gulf Coast.

The heat index could reach 110 degrees or higher in some areas under the heat alert. It's nasty. 

The actual temperatures generally won't be near record highs, but the dew points, a rough measure of how humid it is and how much moisture is in the air, will be as high as they can get. 

The timing of this heat dome could not be worse, because, something called "corn sweat" will make the humidity in the U.S. agricultural belt even more oppressive and dangerous than it otherwise would be. 

The Washington Post describes it this way: 

 "Like a person breathing, corn exhales water vapor through its leaves - a process called evapotranspiration - which exacerbates humidity in agricultural regions during the summer."

.........According to Iowa state climatologist Justin Glisan, this is the time of the year when humidity contributions from corn sweat are highest - around the time to tasseling and pollination, when the flower emerges from the corn stalk."

Under the corn sweat-saturated heat dome, some areas of the Midwest could see dew points near 80 degrees, something you often see along the Gulf Coast in July, but not nearly as often in places like Illinois or Iowa. But, occasionally, during corn sweat season, it gets that bad. 

The high humidity, aided by this corn sweat, could help add to the long list of destructive flooding events we've had in the U.S. this month. 

Weather disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the heat dome will tap into that incredible reservoir of humidity and touch off the risk of flash flooding in the Great Lakes region over the next two or three days, and possibly in parts of the Northeast toward Friday or Saturday 

VERMONT EFFECTS

This morning was pretty cool, with most of Vermont down in the 40s, as expected. There might have been some upper 30s in a couple spots in the Northeast Kingdom, based on reported readings of 35 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, and 38 degrees in Whitefield, New Hampshire. The Champlain valley stayed above 50 degrees.

One note to demonstrate how climate change has altered "normal."  In the century ending in the 1980s, Burlington would get into the 40s on at least one or two July nights most years. That began to gradually change in the 1990s.  Including last night, Burlington has not had a July morning under 50 degrees since 2015.

That's not to say it will never be in the 40s on a Burlington July night again,  but climate change has been one factor in keeping summer nights warmer than they once were.   

Today and tonight will remain cool.  More sunshine than yesterday will help boost today's highs well into the 70s. Still a little below normal for this time of year but still nice. Most of us will get down into the 45 to 55 degree range tonight. 

Winds will gradually shift and come from the west and southwest, eventually bringing that hot, and very humid air - aided a little by that corn sweat - into New England Thursday into Friday. 

Wednesday will be warmer, and by Thursday, it's full steam (literally!) ahead with the heat and humidity. It should make it to 90 degrees or more in many Vermont valleys Thursday and possibly Friday.

We'll have to watch the first in a series of weak cold fronts that could touch off some strong thunderstorms either Thursday night or Friday. 

A series of weak cold fronts will continue to gradually temper the heat, though it probably will stay warmer than normal into the early part of next week, 

After that - as we've been saying for days -  that heat dome will shift west, probably keeping New England on the cooler side as we get to August.  

A BIG Break Coming In Vermont Heat, Humidity, Storm Threat Siege

Another muggy morning dawns on my mid-summer
perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont. Much 
better air is finally due around here on Friday,
but we have heat and storm threats before then.

Yesterday was the eighth day already this summer that Burlington, Vermont made it to 90 degrees, so we're already ahead of normal for the entire year with those kinds of temperatures. 

It used to be the average number of 90 degree days was half that. Now, I see the average being bandied about as six, as such hot days have increased in recent years.

MORE HEAT

Today is a lock in Burlington - and many other towns in Vermont, for another day with temperatures above 90 degrees. It'll even be a little hotter than yesterday, 

The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys. If you combine today's heat and high humidity, the air will feel like it's in the mid and upper 90s. 

The rest of Vermont doesn't quite qualify for an official heat advisory, but it will feel horrible out there. You'll need to take it easy. 

The good news is the smoke and haze from wildfire smoke from yesterday is a little thinner. The bad news is it's still in the air, though. So the combination of a  little air pollution and the hot, humid air won't be so great on the lungs. 

CHANGES AFOOT

If you're tired of this weather, I've got a little more good news. A cold front that would end the heat is looking like it has a little more oomph than previously thought, and it's coming at us a little more quickly that originally planned. 

Before we get there, it's going to be hot and noisy.  Very typically, something called a pre-frontal trough often comes through before the actual cold front. That pre-frontal trough looks like it will come through after midnight tonight, 

So on top of the stuffy, humid air you'll deal with if you don't have air conditioning, you might be woken up early in the morning by thunder or the roar of a downpour on the roof, Not everyone will bet that, but some of us will.

The clusters of storms will move fairly slowly, so there's a low risk of local flash flooding. If anything happens, it will be isolated.

There's a slight chance Burlington could make it to 90 again tomorrow, but clouds and storm threats will probably keep things in the humid 80s. 

The actual cold front looks like it wants to come through in the late afternoon or evening. The timing is such that we might have another round of severe thunderstorms 

It looks to be the typical thing. Hit and miss. A few towns will get blasted by damaging winds and hail and torrential rains. Many of us will get a garden variety storm or just some rain. A few places will get nothing at all.

One literal twist in this is the low pressure system attached to the cold front will past by not far to our northwest, in southern Ontario and southern Quebec. This little low pressure system will add a bit of spin to the atmosphere. If that happens, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center suggests, there would be a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado with this.

That type of chance happens two or three times a summer, it seems, so there you go.

For now, there's a lowest level marginal chance of severe storms and flash floods in Vermont. I suspect they might eventually slightly boost the chances of severe storms from "marginal" to "slight" which would be level two out of five on the risk scale. Stay tuned

WHAT COMES NEXT

The dew point, a rough measure of how humid the air feels, has been hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s for days. That -  as you know - is oppressive as hell.

You're going to love Friday and Saturday. Dew points Friday and Saturday are forecast to crash down into the 50s, which is quite comfortable. It will stay warm but certainly not hot. Highs Friday will be in the 70s, with a couple spot low 80s here and there. 

Friday night's temperatures should drop into the 50s, so fling open those windows and let those cool night breezes in! Saturday looks sunny, the humidity will stay low and temperatures should pop back up into the low 80s. A Chamber of Commerce weather day, at least we hope!

We have an uncertain chance of showers on Sunday, we're not sure about that yet. But if it does rain a little in Burlington Sunday, that'll break the record for most consecutive weekends with rain at 31,  It's fun to see record broken, so I actually hope we get a sprinkle or two Sunday. Maybe before dawn or after dusk would be nice. 

Climate And Environmental Pessimism In Vermont/U.S: Heat, Smoke, Floods, Invasives And More

This gloomy thunderstorm cloud, photographed Sunday
matched my mood Monday evening as I contemplated
bad weather, climate change, and environmental threats

I fell into a negative mood last evening. 

I was sitting outside, sweating in the tropical Vermont humidity, a few hours after an alleged "cold front" had passed through town where I am, not far from the Canadian border. 

I'd tried to do some needed yard work, but it was too sultry to get much done. I figured I should just sit down and enjoy the day lilies blooming around me. 

 Mid-summer flowers usually improve my mood. Last evening, those flowers, bright as they are, weren't lifting my spirits as much as I'd like. 

Sure, Vermont was lucky with the weather once again on Monday. A few places around the state saw some strong storms, but there wasn't really any damage, no real flooding this time. That was good news.  

But as usual these days, my social media feed last evening was filled with news of new weather emergencies, probably fueled in large parts by climate change. 

A tropical system was brewing near Florida. But once again, it produced news of another one in 1,000 year rainfall event. This time it was around Plant City, Florida, which managed to receive 10 inches of rain in just three hours. Funny how those one in one thousand year flood events keep happening like, every hour. 

I continued on, doom scrolling with my iPhone, coughing a bit in the Vermont air that had once again become smoky from giant, distant wildfires in Canada. I saw we're under another air quality alert. So much for pristine Green Mountain air. 

That air quality alert will stay in effect through at least today.  It's going to be another hot, humid one, too. Health officials are telling us that the combination of sultry, tropical air, the smoke and all that means we should once again limit outdoor activity, especially if you have pre-existing health issues. 

More weather updates on my phone. New York City just had its second wettest hour on record, with 2.07 inches, half its normal monthly installment of rain.  The Central Park downpour was second only to the mega-former Hurricane Ida floods in the Big Apple in 2021.  

Subway service was suspended, roads were under water, cars were trapped, flights were delayed, What a mess!

In neighboring New Jersey, as much as six inches of rain fell in a matter of hours. Flash flood warnings were blaring in most of the Mid-Atlantic states. Parts of the New Jersey Turnpike were really rivers. Fast flowing water raced through homes and businesses in Plainfield, New Jersey, and other towns.  The governor of New Jersey declared a state of emergency. 

Emergency? Yeah, no kidding. 

Climate change is really turbocharging summer downpours. As I've written previously, it's the summer of floods in the U.S.. and that shows no signs of change.  

Day lilies glow in the hazy morning sun today in St
Albans, Vermont. Despite worries like climate change
and the environment, there's lots to be grateful for, 

I gazed up my phone at the yard as it was growing dark.  A couple fireflies blinked half-heartedly in the humid dusk. 

There used to be a lot more fireflies. I don't know whether this is a one-summer lull at my house or something else. But I do know firefly  numbers are declining. 

I used to enjoy the bats that once swooped around my deck at dusk in the summer. They're gone, too, decimated by something called white nose syndrome, a fungus that kills them, 

My crowded perennial gardens used to buzz with bees. This summer, only a few have been buzzing around. Was it this year's rainy weather or something else? I know bee populations are crashing, mostly because of our use of pesticides and a disease spreading mite that came from overseas in the 1980s. 

Global trade is great on our pocketbooks, but not on the environment.  All kinds of invasive are killing things we love.  Giant chestnut trees were lost at the turn of the 20th century Our big gracious big elms in the mid-century to dutch elm disease.

I glanced upward last night in the gathering dusk around my house at the nearby dead trees. They were deceased white ash trees, decimated by the emerald ash borer. Those dead ash trees are everywhere now, giving a winter look in spots to our oppressively hot, smoky Vermont summer. 

Next on the list potentially is our beloved sugar maples, central to Vermont's identity. Asian longhorn beetles are spreading in the U.S., and could eventually create real, disheartening trouble to our maple syrup industry.

I turned again to the weather forecast before giving up for the evening. We'll have a couple days that reach at least 90 degrees in many locations today and tomorrow.  Great beach days, right? Despite the smoke?

Well, some beaches are closed due to algae blooms. And Burlington has an unfortunate mishap at the sewage treatment plant, and that closed beaches around that city. 

By Thursday, the risk of showers and thunderstorms returns with the approach of a cold front. 

That might be a reason to lift my spirits.   The next cold front looks like it means business. We could actually have some delightfully dry and seasonably cool air by later Friday and Saturday.  A reason to go on living! 

I've always been fascinated and embrace the weather, the outdoors, nature. Sure, I get gloomy sometimes thinking about what's going on.  With climate change. Environment trouble. Invasives.  

The solution, of course, is to not let the negativity that I was experiencing last evening to linger. Do something about climate change and the environment to the best of your ability. There's only so much we can contribute, of course. 

Most importantly we need to love what we still have. And if you think about it, that's still plenty. 

Which brings us to this morning. Songbirds, as usual, were my sunrise happy alarm clock. I ventured outdoors.   The view from my house of Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks beyond was obscured by smoke. 

But those day lilies happily danced in the early morning breeze and hazy sunshine, this time doing their job and making me smile. 

The woods around my house had that beautiful, soothing deep green mid-summer lushness it always has in July. The hydrangeas were decked out in their early season white blooms, flecked with delicate pink. A couple of dragonflies did their helicopter-like aerial acrobatics, expertly removing annoying biting insects from the yard. 

Despite everything, there's still a lot of beauty out there. Enjoy it. For your own sanity. 

The Usual For Vermont These Days: Humidity, Storms, Wildfire Smoke, But Where Will The Worst Of It Hit?

A menacing thunderstorm with great structure approaching
Georgia, Vermont last evening. Despite appearance, the
storm wasn't severe. Storms that came through parts of
Vermont Sunday were relatively tame, so no problems
with wind damage or floods were reported. 

 It's another humid morning out there in Vermont among many humid morning we've already seen this summer. 

There's more on the way, so that will be a familiar topic. So, too, will be the risk of storms, local flash flooding. Plus our old friend wildfire smoke is returning too. Oh, joy! 

Someday, we'll have cool, dry, clean air, but not too soon I'm afraid.

There is good news to report. None of the showers and storms that came through Vermont yesterday and last evening were severe, even if they were accompanied by menacing looking clouds. 

Some of the storms knocked down a few trees and power lines in northern New York, but none of those storms caused trouble once they crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Those storms kept their flooding issues west and north of Vermont, too.  We was a flash flood warning for a time in part of the Adirondacks. And further west, there was substantial flash flooding in central New York, especially around Newark Valley, New York, southeast of Ithaca. 

Flash flooding was also reported around the Montreal metro area. Up to three inches of rain in a short time flooded basements and highways, cut power and caused flight delays at the city's airports. 

We have a new weather record to report, too. At least a tie.  Burlington received a little rain Sunday, just 0.16 inches. But that's enough to have made this past weekend the 30th in a row with at least some precipitation.  That ties the record for most consecutive weekends with at least some rain or snow in Burlington. 

STORMS/FLOOD POTENTIAL

The additional good news - for Vermont anyway - is that if we do see any flash flooding from additional storms today those instances will be pretty isolated. 

The more substantial flood trouble will be to our south, most in the Mid-Atlantic region. Down by Washington DC, Philadelphia, New Jersey and that area, there's a serious risk of real flood trouble today.  

While we will have thunderstorms in Vermont today they're also unlikely to be severe.

One thing that's helping is the weather front that will be driving today's storms is moving a bit faster than expected. It's technically a cold front, but unlike most cold fronts it doesn't get any cooler or much less humid behind it. 

Showers and thunderstorms seen erupting late
Sunday afternoon looking west from Georgia, Vermont. 

But the front does have a punch of drier air higher up in the atmosphere, and that will help suppress showers and  thunderstorms in northwestern Vermont, which got the most rain yesterday. 

 I suspect areas north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountains should be done with the shower and storm risk by mid-afternoon at the latest. 

We'll still have to watch through the day for potential isolated instances of flash flooding in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which are still recovering from last week's flood. 

If we do have any flash flooding today - remember, that's just an if - far southern Vermont will be the most likely place. They had some pretty heavy downpours Saturday. And today's storm and downpour threat will last all day into the early evening down there. 

Do note that almost everybody in Vermont will get much less than an inch of rain today. It will just be a few pinpoint locations that really get hit with the downpours. 

SMOKE

Those wildfires in central Canada, after simmering down for a time, have really perked up again. Those fires have also spread into Ontario.  

Smoke from the fires has been choking the Upper Midwest for a few days now. This weather front coming into Vermont today will help pull some of that smoke into our area starting later today and continuing at least through tomorrow and probably beyond.

You'll notice the haze tomorrow for sure. The air quality will probably not be all that great either. Especially since it will be combined with the expected heat and humidity, the smoke could be a problem for people with health issues. So you'll want to take it easy.  People with asthma will want to have their stuff together in case of an attack

HEAT/HUMIDITY

Despite the sun being dimmed a bit from the smoke, a burst of hot weather is likely Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe Thursday.  Warmer valley could reach 90 degrees all three days. The hottest day looks like it will be Wednesday, when many of us will see highs in the low 90s. 

The humidity will remain awful. On the bright side, I suppose, high pressure will ensure that thunderstorms will probably remain few and far between Tuesday and Wednesday. But the slightest little trigger in this kind of weather can pop up a slow moving storm with torrential downpours, so we won't be completely out the woods. 

THE END?

A slightly better cold front than that poor excuse for today's weather front seems like it wants to approach us later Thursday or Friday. We'll have to watch that one for heavy rains and a flood risk again toward the end of the week. But it looks like temperatures and humidity should fall to near normal levels by the weekend. 

That "normal" is  the new normal of course. In this climate changed world, normal high and low temperatures are higher than they once were. This time of year "normal" highs and lows in Burlington are deemed at 83/63.   The normal high and low in Burlington in mid-July a few decades ago was 80/59.

For 3rd July 10 In A Row, Vermont Suffers Through Damaging Floods, More Trouble Ahead?

Thunderstorms developing near Lake Champlain 
caused falling rain and sunshine to mix in
interesting patterns, as seen from St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday. Though this storm was picturesque,
other storms elsewhere in Vermont caused a lot
of flood damage for the third July 10 in a row. 

 Yes, incredibly, as you might have already heard, for the third July 10 in a row, Vermont suffered through damaging flooding. 

The worst of the trouble this time was up in the Northeast Kingdom, with reports of water in homes, swift water rescue teams rushing a respond, roads closed, and four to five inches of rain in spots. 

Other flooding was reported in parts of Addison County. 

At least one swift water rescue was reported along Calendar Brook Road in Sutton.  They were there to "assist the residents of one  home cut off by floodwater," according to a Vermont Emergency Management statement, as VTDigger reported. 

Other rescue teams were staged around the state just in case. 

Barton and Orleans, and other Northeast Kingdoms communities have now suffered flood damage for the third July 10 in a row. That has to be incredibly disheartening. 

Damage reports from Thursday were a dime a dozen.  Sheffield Road was washed out in Sutton. School Street in West Burke was under water. Route 114 was closed due to a culvert washout in East Haven. Part of Route 58 in Orleans was washed out.

A number of local town roads in the Northeast Kingdom were either damaged or closed or both by washouts and flooding. 

Rainfall amounts in parts of the Northeast Kingdom were impressive to say the least. West Burke reported 5.07 inches, Sutton saw 4.92 inches. Down in Addison County, 4.32 inches fell in New Haven, where at least one road was closed by flooding. 

The storms this time were hit and miss. Parts of northwest and southern Vermont saw almost no rain. Burlington reported just 0.02 inches. Montpelier reported a tame 0.26 inches, which had to be a relief compared to the more than six inches of rain Montpelier endured on July 10-11, 2023, and the more than three inches they had last year. 

 If you want to find a weak silver lining from yesterday, I suppose the trend line is good. Thursday's floods weren't as widespread as last year's. And the floods of 2023 were even worse than in 2024. 

Almost all the damage from yesterday was in limited to the Northeast Kingdom and parts of Addison County. Last year's floods affected most of northern Vermont. The July, 2023 floods affected almost the entire state. 

So each July 10 is better, maybe?

That's cold comfort to anyone who suffered damage yesterday. It was especially distressing to have another July 10 in which the weather radio was crackling with an onslaught of flood and severe storm warnings. 

Still, another bright side was that some towns and cities that were hard hit in 2023 and 2024 like Barre, Montpelier and Johnson, reported little damage from Thursday's storms.  

Severe thunderstorms with powerful winds also roamed parts of the state Thursday. The roof of Middlbury High School was damage by powerful storm winds. Multiple trees crashed to the ground and blocked parts of Route 125 in Middlebury and Weybridge, along with Route 17 in Weybridge. 

Some tree damage was reported in Williamstown and Hyde Park

I don't know whether Thursday's damage qualified Vermont for federal disaster aid. Complicating the picture is the Trump administration is famously withholding disaster funds.  

The flood and storm reports from yesterday are still coming in, so I'll update as warranted throughout this. 

HEAT AND STORMS TO CONTINUE

Much like in the aftermath of the floods of July 2023, and 2024, Vermont is now settling into a weather pattern featuring hot, humid weather accompanied by some risk of additional damaging storms. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, keeps Vermont (and many other parts of the nation) in a marginal risk for more flash flooding Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That's the least dire of four tiers of flood risk, meaning there's a chance of isolated flash floods.

On Saturday, there's only going to be scattered storms here and there, mostly just because the air mass will be warm and humid. At this point I think Saturday's the lowest risk day, and chances are good we'll get through the day with no trouble.

Forecasters are watching the period from Sunday evening into Monday. The air will be very humid, and a weather front will be approaching from the west. (Some are calling it a cold front, but there's nothing cold about it). 

We could see a few scattered instances of downpours heavy enough to cause some localized new flood issues.  Again, nothing widespread, but something to keep an eye on.

Behind this "cold front" on Monday, the air will stay very warm and humid, so that thing is going to be just a thunderstorm trigger and pretty much nothing else. 

A heat ridge will build in the eastern U.S. next week, ensuring Vermont will stay very warm and humid probably at least until the end of next week. 

Check out these forecast daily highs in Burlington Saturday, through Thursday: 87, 89, 85, 90, 92, 92. So yeah, icky,

Vermont will also be near the northern edge of that heat dome. Clusters of thunderstorms often ride along the northern edge of these things. We'll need to be on guard for the risk of perhaps some severe storms or local flash floods again most of next week. 

We don't know for sure about that. If we're lucky, everything will go by to our north. We'll have better forecasts once we get into next week.