Vermonters Are Using Air Conditioners More And More. Blame Climate Change

I'm one of many Vermonters who succumbed to the 
temptation to buy an air conditioner as summers have
generally gotten hotter and hotter. 

 As another stretch of 80+ degree weather and rising humidity loom next week, Vermonters are ready to reach for their air conditioners. 

Unlike in the past, most of us now have air conditioners, or at least heat pumps that act as air conditioners.

As Vermont Public reports:

"Two-thirds of Vermonters use air conditioners or heat pumps (which can be used to cool air) at home, according to a 2020 survey by the federal Energy Information Administration. The most common methods are an individual AC unit or ductless heat pump."

Given the fact that 2020, 2021 and 2022 are all in the top ten list of hottest summers, at least as measured in Burlington, I'm sure even more Vermont residents succumbed to the temptation to buy air conditioners. 

I used to be one of those people who swore they'd never buy an air conditioner. It used to be stretches of hot, humid weather were usually too brief and too infrequent to bother. But climate change is altering that fact.

I decided to buy an air conditioner in 2018.  During an intense early July heat wage, in which Burlington had its hottest overnight low temperature on record, I watched my husband nearly have heat stroke. I watched my dogs suffer to the point I was nearly as worried about them as I was about Jeff. And I was absolutely miserable in that heat. 

So we trundled off to the hardware store grabbed one of the few remaining air conditioners in stock during that heat wave, and we haven't looked back. 

Vermont Public says that in New England as a whole, the share of households using air conditioning has increased 72 percent since 1991. Back then, New England summers were nearly a degree cooler on average than they are now. 

In the immediate future, we only have moderate heat to contend with. It looks like most of next week will be in the low to mid 80s - warm for early June but thankfully not record hot.

Who knows what later June through August will bring, though. 

 

Hope Vermont Enjoyed Recent Rains, Pretty Much No Rain In Forecast For Next 7 Days

A week of dry weather expected in Vermont means you'll
probably have to irrigate your gardens for awhile.

 It looks like us Vermonters are in for the longest dry spell since last September and October.

Don't worry, though, it's not as if we're entering a drought or anything. 

Still, in northern Vermont, the rain stopped Tuesday evening, and we're going to go at least a week until raindrops re-appear.

Some rain was falling in southern Vermont this morning, but that should end by afternoon and that section of the state will stay dry for a week, too.

This dry stretch will be more enjoyable than anything else, but you will have to irrigate your gardens. If you don't some garden plants might end up pretty droopy within a few days. 

That's because on top of the dryness, the days are long this time of year, so there's hours and hours of sunshine to dry things out. Humidity will also remain low for the next several days. 

This dry stretch might be good for farmers, too. The early, warm spring seems to have led to a potentially early hay crop. It's best if farmers have several dry days in a row to deal with harvesting, so this will be perfect.

Last summer was a nightmare in that regard. When the haying was finally ready for cutting in early June, it started to rain constantly, and the wet weather continued through August.  That was for farmers lucky enough to be on hills. 

Many farms were virtually demolished by the catastrophic July floods we had.  

This spring has actually been a little on the dry side, but it has rained frequently enough to keep the ground moist enough. It helps that last fall and winter were wet, so ground water is still in good shape. I suppose if it stays dry through the summer we'll run into some trouble, but for now, we're fine. 

If you're into outdoor activity like hiking and such, you're golden. It's starting off a little on the cool side, with highs today only in the 60s to near 70. 

However, we're in for a gradual warming trend, with low 70s Friday, upper 70s Saturday, then low to mid 80s heading into next week. A few forecasts hint at temperatures near 90 by Wednesday, but I'm taking a wait and see approach on that. It might not necessarily get that hot. 

Eventually, the strong high pressure will break down, allowing moisture to come from the south, and weather fronts to come in from the west.

That might start to happen next Tuesday, though there's also a chance any rain will be postponed until Wednesday or Thursday. 

I  have some some forecasts indicating heavy rain around here around June 6 to 8, but the accuracy of such a long range prediction is iffy at best.

Even if it does end up raining hard by then, the dry conditions we're having now would allow the rain to soak into the ground more, diminishing the risk of any flooding if it rains too heavily.

Given the lack of harm this dry spell will do, all I can say is get out and enjoy it. 

This Is One Of The Most Expensive Storm Years In Texas. They Were Just Hit Again

 Texas just can't catch a break.

The Texas storms roll on. Yellow areas should expect
some severe storms Thursday. Dark green areas have 
a limited but still real chance of rough weather. 

Another complex of intense storms ripped through parts of the state Monday and Tuesday, causing a new round of extensive damage, flooding and power outages.  

At least one person was killed in the latest round of storms, and several injured. 

More than a million homes and businesses were without power, mostly in and near the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area on Tuesday. It could take days for power to be fully restored, reports the Associated Press.  

The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area were hit be two waves of intense storms, one late Monday afternoon, and a second a little before dawn Tuesday. 

Winds gusted to 77 mph at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.  Video on social media showed the wind shoving an American Airlines plane away from a gate.  Denton, Texas, damaged by a tornado on Saturday, endured a gust to 83 mph. 

The latest round of bad weather probably adds more than $1 billion in damages to the several billions of dollars in damage suffered in Texas spring floods.

This month started with record flooding in east Texas that forced thousands from their homes. 

Then, Houston and environs suffered an extreme thunderstorm with hurricane force winds and embedded tornadoes on May 16.

That storm caused widespread destruction and power outages, destroyed homes and blew hundreds or even thousands of windows out of downtown Houston skyscrapers. 

After that, deadly tornadoes swept through areas north of Dallas, killing seven people, injuring dozens and destroying hundreds of homes and businesses. 

On Tuesday, another round of high winds and flooding hit Houston and surrounding areas, adding to the damage from May 16 and taking down electrical power that had just been restored to many homes. 

All this is happening as most of Texas is dealing with an early bout of hot weather.  Six days this month are among Houston's top 20 hottest May days. Some Texas cities have hit all time highs for May, or all time warmest overnight lows for May. 

That makes things especially rough when the power, and thus air conditioning, aren't working. 

With two major storms hitting both sprawling metropolitan areas of Houston and Dallas, plus added tornado and hail damage elsewhere in the state, the cost of these disasters will surely cost many billions of dollars in damage. 

That's on a scale of a major hurricane. Speaking of which, the entire 367-mile Texas coast is highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Forecasters say this hurricane season will be especially busy, increasing the odds of a Texas landfall. 

In the short term, Texas is not quite done with the rough weather. Large parts of Texas are expected to see storms with high winds and giant hail today, Thursday and Friday. 

Videos: What Not To Do In Tornadoes, And Some Remarkable Tornado Footage

 It really has been a season of tornadoes this spring.

Screen grab from dash cam video showing a tornado
destroying a large building in Lincoln, Nebraska
back in late April 

We just got through the worst outbreak of the year, with something like 21 deaths at last count. That brings the total number of tornado deaths this year to 36.  

That's terrible, of course, but still in a sense good given the huge number of tornadoes we had this year - more than 1,000 in the United States already in 2024. 

The last time a tornado season was busier than this was in 2011, when 543 Americans died in tornadoes through the end of May. 

This year's  activity is starting to die down, starting today, but tornado threats aren't going to entirely go away this week.  And you never know whether new swarms of big twisters will hit in June. 

Since everything is on camera these days, the tornadoes and storms have yielded some pretty wild, and some pretty head shaking videos.

The videos display the extreme power of the tornadoes, and in some cases, the poor thinking among some people in the face of these storms. Some examples are in this post. 

I'm not going to put the videos directly in the post. I'll put links that you'll click on. That way, the people who created the videos will get the views and the credit. These videos certainly are worth the clicks. 

Moore, Oklahoma

No fewer than 17 tornadoes have hit the city of Moore, Oklahoma since 1893. Some of them, like ones in 1893, 1973, 1999, 2003, 2010 and 2013.

So you'd think the fine citizens of Moore would be well-versed on what to do when a tornado warning sounds. Most people there are indeed smart about tornadoes. But there's always a few.

On May 6, Moore and surrounding areas were put under a tornado warning, and a twister did touch down close to Oklahoma City's Will Rogers Airport a few miles to the north. 

After the tornado, Live Storms Media posted an infuriating video showing cars taking shelter beneath a highway overpass in Moore.  First of all, underpasses are dangerous because they funnel already strong tornadic winds, easily blowing everyone away.  (Click on this link to view).

In this case, it didn't happen, but the cars parked beneath the overpass were blocking other cars from moving. That's important if anyone was trying to get away from an impending tornado by racing up the highway. Never mind any emergency vehicles that were trying to get through. 

Occupants of those cars parked there were the ultimate in selfishness.

Lincoln, Nebraska

On April 26, an intense tornado passed through the Lincoln, Nebraska area, obviously doing a lot of damage. The video in this section  (click on this link) shows the tornado crossing a road and hitting a train. 

Screen grab from video showing people being pelted
by debris from a tornado beneath a Lincoln, Nebraska
overpass. We don't know why these people got out of their
vehicle, and the video shows that they could have 
turned around on a wide street and driven away
from the tornado, 

As you can early in the video, there's cars wisely driving away from the tornado. As the storm chaser continues filming the tornado, you see three people near the pillar of another highway overpass.

Eventually they get pelted by debris, as they're not even really smart enough to get on the protected side of the pillar. 

The storm chaser at least got in his car for some protection. These other bozos had plenty of opportunity before this happened to get in their car, make a U-turn and drive away from the tornado like other motorists. I have no idea why they stayed out there like that.

Certainly, potential Darwin Award winners there. 

Did you notice the train in the video I linked to above? A couple of people were in the train when the tornado scored a direct hit on it. Click on this link to see what it looked like to them. 

Lincoln, Nebraska (again)

Click on this link to watch dash cam video of how fast the April 26 tornado wiped out an industrial building. Several dozen people were in the structure at the time, but they had fled to a tornado safe room ahead of the storm and escaped injury 

Temple, Texas

Teslas are equipped with a bunch of cameras, of course. So what happens when it records a May 22  tornado scoring a direct hit on it? Find out by clicking on this link.   The video shows different angles, including behind and in front of the car.

The occupants of the Tesla had fled into a nearby restaurant and were not injured. The dude who you'll see pull in with his truck during the worst of it must have had quite a scare. 

Valley View, Texas

Up to 80 people crowded into a busy gas station and truck stop along Interstate 35 as a tornado approached this past Saturday. Click on this link to watch a video taken inside the gas station and  convenience store as the tornado ripped it apart. Nobody inside the store was killed and none of them suffered life-threatening injuries. 

The May 25 tornado did, however kill seven people in an near Valley View.

Portage, Michigan

Somebody in Portage, Michigan used to have a lovely yard with fantastic old trees. That is until a tornado swept through on May 7. Click on this link to watch every tree in the yard sadly crash to the ground. 

Reportedly, the falling trees missed the house, and the home itself sustained only minor damage. 

"Heat Dome" That's Been Baking Mexico Spreads To U.S.; Could Impact Rest Of Nation Over The Summer

A schematic of a heat dome over the middle of the
United States. In a heat dome, high pressure
causing sinking air, which ensures strong sun
trapping hot air in place. 

What is known as a "heat dome" - a persistent, torrid high pressure system, has been baking Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, has been expanding in recent days and weeks to affect the United States.   

Heat domes are fairly common mostly over continents in the summer. But they've been getting more intense with climate change. 

The latest heat dome has been killing people, causing droughts and fires, and also triggering intense storms,  especially along its edges.

Mexico City residents are rationing water as drought dries up supplies. The city could run out of water as early as June 26, even as the region's hoped for rainy season starts about then, according to Axios.

The Mexican heat has been brutal on wildlife, too. Mexico's famous howler monkeys have been dying in the heat. As of Sunday, 157 of the monkeys had succumbed in southern Mexico. An endangered salamander looks like it might go extinct because of the heat. 

All time record high temperatures have been set in parts of Mexico, Belize and other Central American and Caribbean nations. 

 The heat has been making inroads into Florida and Texas in recent days. 

Del Rio, Texas reached 109 degrees last week, setting an all time record high for the month of May. 

As of Sunday, four of Houston's 20 hottest May days since the late 1880s happened this month. 

There's been little relief from the heat at night. Kingsville, Texas recently had an overnight "low" of 84 degrees, the highest low temperature on record in May for anywhere in Texas. 

The heat index in Miami was 112 degrees on both May 18 and 19.  That's only happened once before, in  August of last year. But it's only May, so that episode was especially bizarre.

SUMMER DANGER

All this adds a potentially ominous tone for the summer in the United States. It's inevitable that the heat dome will expand into the  Lower 48 and perhaps southern Canada as we move through June, July and August. 

Most likely, it will persist for a few days over a certain region, then shift to somewhere else and back again.  Given the intensity of the heat dome and climate change, this could lead to dangerous all time record highs at the height of summer. 

An intense heat dome in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in 2021 led to the all-time record high for  Canada of 121 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia. That town burned down the next day in a wildfire that was greatly accelerated by the heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave killed 619 Canadians and dozens of people in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as temperatures climbed into the 110s in many locations. 

We risk a similar disaster this summer, but of course we don't know where yet. 

The summer heat dome could also pretty much park itself over one location for much of the summer, like it did in Mexico this spring. That would cause weeks of record high temperatures, deaths from heat and flash droughts.   

HEAT DOMES, CLIMATE CHANGE AND US 

Heat domes have always been a thing. The intense heat and dust bowl droughts of the 1930s were in large part caused by heat domes. 

Climate change is helping to intensify heat domes, here in North America and in Europe and Asia, where heat waves have killed tens of thousands in recent years. Heat waves are not photogenic like most disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes. But heat is the deadliest type of disaster, so they should be taken more seriously than they are. 

We obviously don't know whether or how much any heat domes will affect us here in Vermont. 

Even in this cool, temperate corner of the world, heat can be dangerous in Vermont. An intense July, 2018 heat wave caused six deaths in Vermont and dozens up in Quebec, for instance. 

Again, because of climate change, I think the all time record high temperature in the Green Mountain State - 105 degrees in Vernon, in July, 1911 - might well be broken within the next decade. I imagine Burlington's all-time high of 101 will be challenged, too.

I'm not saying that will happen this year. I imagine it could, but it's all the roll of the dice. 

Long range forecast call for a hot summer in the United States, with the best chance of persistent heat in the western United States and in New England. 

It's been one of the warmest Mays on record in Vermont. Who knows whether that trend will last through the summer. But I'd bet on at least some brutal heat in the coming months. 

Strong Winds Cause Some Damage In Vermont, Even Stronger Than Forecast

 Boy, that wind really cranked this afternoon in parts of Vermont. 

Trees strain in the winds this afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont

 That's especially true for this time of year, when gusty winds like that are usually limited to small areas within strong to severe thunderstorms. 

With trees leafed out, all those leaves acted like little sails in the wind, pulling and straining trees and branches much more than they would in the winter. That caused some trees and branches to fall on power lines.

At one point this afternoon, nearly 2,600 homes and businesses were without power, mostly in northwestern Vermont where the wind seemed to be the strongest. The number of outages was down to about 1,200 by 6 p.m. 

The strong winds spread brush fires along Route 2 in Colchester and South Hero, but firefighters, with an assist from late afternoon rain, put a stop to that. 

Although we don't have a lot of official reports, winds clearly gusted to more than 40 mph, perhaps to near 50 mph in a few spots. 

There could be more non-thunderstorm related strong gusts this evening, but those should diminish later.

Northern and central New York is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 9 p.m.  Strong winds, hail and even perhaps a brief tornado could spin up there. 

The air over Vermont is more stable, so as that activity moves in to our neck of the woods, the storms are no longer severe. But heavy downpours and more local gusty winds are still possible. 

One band of locally heavy rain was moving into Vermont as of 6 p.m. A line of potentially severe storms lurks behind that in northwestern New York. By the time that second line arrives in Vermont later this evening, I doubt there will be any severe weather with it. Just some more downpours. 

Most of us should see about a half inch of rain, but some places will see more if they get bullseyed by the heaviest showers this evening and overnight. 

Tomorrow will stay mild, with a chance of a few more showers. We're still looking at a brief return to cooler weather for the second half of the week before it turns warm again. 

Vermont To Have Kind Of Stormy Memorial Day And Night, But NOTHING Like The Midwest

Umbrellas closed on our St. Albans, Vermont deck this
morning in anticipation of gusty winds in the Green
Mountain State later today. Thunderstorms and 
downpours are also in the forecast, mostly later 
today and tonight 

More tornadoes spun through the Midwest and South Sunday, and the death toll is now at 19 from the worst tornado outbreak of the year so far.   

Nearly 100 tornadoes have been reported in the United States since last Thursday. 

There might be a few more today mostly in the Mid-Atlantic States as the pretty potent storm moves from the Great Lakes into Quebec. It's dragging its cold front into the East, which explains the continued rough weather. 

Here in Vermont, we're in for by late May standards a stormy day and night, with gusty winds, the risk of a couple strong storms mostly in western sections and some bursts of heavy rain.  

WIND

It'll be pretty windy for most of us today, especially in the Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Winds could gust to 40 mph in some parts of the western slopes and Champlain Valley and 20 to 35 mph elsewhere.

If you haven't already, you should probably take down deck umbrellas and make sure light weight stuff doesn't blow around.  Also, today is not the day to take your boat out on the lake, despite the temptation of enjoying the Memorial Day holiday.  Maybe just remember our fallen soldiers instead, in keeping with the day?

Leaves on the trees are new, and you'd be surprised at how heavy a tree full of leaves are.

Trees that had been weakened by storms over the winter, or are just not in good shape are suddenly heavier with those leaves. That makes them more prone to toppling over in today's wind, if they're no longer sturdy.   

 Nothing widespread, but I think we might see an isolated power outage or two out of this. After all, we had some minor outages last Friday, when winds gusted to 35 mph amid bright sunshine. 

STORMS

Our irises enjoyed a nice sunny Sunday, but they'll
endure wind and possible downpours today. 

Another threat is strong, to isolates severe storms west. That zone of expected severe weather today extends from Georgia all the way up through central New York and the St. Lawrence Valley.  

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington says they'll need to keep an eye out for a rotating storm or two over the St. Lawrence Valley today.  

A marginal risk (lowest of a five point alert scale) of a severe storm now extends as far east as Route 7 in Vermont. So western Vermont might (or might not!) see isolated cases of strong winds with thunderstorms or small hail. 

A wave of scattered showers might come through this morning, with perhaps a rumble of thunder west. The threat for the real thunderstorms comes mostly after 3 p.m. today and extending well into the evening.  Again, hit and miss stuff

DOWNPOURS

The air coming in from the south ahead of the cold front is humid, with plenty of water in it. That sets us up for the risk of local downpours embedded in the rain we've got coming. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center actually has us solidly in a marginal risk zone for flash flooding. That's the lowest in a four-level risk scale. It means there's a chance that there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding here or there later today and tonight. 

If we do see any kind of flash flooding around Vermont, which is iffy, it won't be anything catastrophic. We're not going to do what we did last summer in this instance.  Otherwise, chances are you'll hear the roar of a quick downpour on your roof later today or tonight. 

We could use the rain, actually. Gardens are getting sort of dry. 

OUTLOOK

The storm causing all this will linger nearby for a few days, opening us up for the chance of showers daily through Thursday, perhaps into Friday if the system overstays its welcome.

There's a low risk of showers Tuesday, as it looks now with temperatures remaining mild in the 70s. We have a better chance of hit and miss showers Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures a little on the cool side for this time of year.

There's hints that a drier, warmer period mighty start next weekend. 

As Sadly Expected, More Tornado Tragedies Saturday; 15 Dead So Far, More Tornadoes Now Spinning In Midwest

The Denton, Texas Fire Department released this
photo of tornado damage in their city. Major
damage and some deaths were reported from 
overnight tornadoes in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas

UPDATE, 6:30 PM

Since this morning, the death toll from last night's tornado swarm rose to 15, making this easily the worst tornado outbreak in a very busy and tragic season.

Even worse, the developing tornado situation in the mid-Mississippi has gotten worse, as NOAA' Storm Prediction Center upgraded the storm risk this afternoon to moderate, the second highest level. 

Several strong to intense tornadoes are likely this evening in that region, says the Storm Prediction Center. 

Already, as of 6:30 p.m. several tornado warnings were in effect in Missouri.  Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings were also up for a zone from Arkansas to Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

A "particularly dangerous tornado watch is in effect for big chunks of Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. A "particularly dangerous" watch means forecasters are confident there will be strong tornadoes, and perhaps many of them. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tornadoes again swept the southern and central Plains yesterday afternoon and night, unleashing more damage, deaths and destruction in a remarkably busy and heartbreaking tornado season.  

At least 24 tornadoes were reported Saturday and more are expected today. 

CNN was reporting five deaths from tornadoes in Texas overnight. 

At first, it began to look like the worst of the expected Saturday outbreak wouldn't come to pass. Only a few fitful tornadoes were reported during the day in the southern Plains. Then, after dark, supercells really exploded, unleashing the barrage of tornadoes.

Tornadoes are much more dangerous after dark as you can't really see them coming, and people are not as likely to be paying attention to warnings. 

Likely the worst incident came Saturday night when a  tornado smashed through a travel center housing a gas station and a few restaurants off a busy highway in Valley View, Texas, television station WFAA reported.

About 80 people were in there at the time, some of whom stopped there for shelter when they heard tornado warnings in their cars. Most of the people inside were injured, authorities said, but none of the injuries are life-threatening.

However, elsewhere around Valley View, at least two people, and possibly more died when the twister roared through neighborhoods, WFAA reported. The dark of night and power outages hindered search and rescue, and officials said they feared what they would see when dawn broke. 

Valley View is along Interstate 35 about 60 miles north of Dallas. Heavy damage was also reported in nearby Celina, Texas, probably from the same tornado. 

An intense supercell spun off a series of destructive tornadoes overnight and early this morning over 220 miles or so from Claremore, Oklahoma to Briarcliff, Arkansas. 

Details were still sketchy this morning, but at least two deaths were reported near Claremore, which suffered heavy damage. Possible tornadoes hit an outdoor wedding in Capron, Oklahoma and a KOA campground near Claremore. Initial reports indicate injures are minor at the campground 

Widespread damage is also reported in Rogers, Arkansas. 

I'm sure more sad details will emerge as we go through the morning

TODAY

Tornado warnings were still flying as dawn broke in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri. 

A whole large area through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys are under the gun for tornadoes, damaging straight line winds and large hail pretty much all day.

After tomorrow, the national tornado threat should wane, but not entirely go away, for at least a few days.  

For those here in Vermont wondering how that storm will affect us, we only need to deal with showers and non-severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. 

Yet ANOTHER Big Tornado Outbreak Looms In Midwest As Weather Here In Vermont Turns Changeable

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes is due
in the Plains today.  Up here in Vermont, we can
expect some changeable weather over 
the next few days. 

 The ongoing slog of severe weather and tornadoes continues through much of the middle of the nation. A fresh outbreak of storms and tornadoes today and Sunday is forecast to be among the worst this season.  

Here in Vermont, we'll have changeable weather, including a rather stormy Monday and Monday night. More on that coming up.

TORNADO/STORM HAVOC

Bad weather continued on Friday in the middle of the nation and it's going to get worse today.

Early Friday, a band of intense thunderstorms and a few embedded tornados raced from Nebraska, through Iowa and into Illinois, causing more damage.

Greenfield, Iowa, where an intense, deadly tornado mowed down and pulverized homes along a path through town on Tuesday, thunderstorm winds of 75 mph caused added damage there. Those winds tore tarps off of tornado-damaged roofs, knocked down some of the surviving trees and cut power again. 

Today, the alarm bells are going off especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, where we have another risk of violent, long-lasting tornadoes later today. 

That area is in a moderate risk zone for chaos, the second highest level.  As of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was considering upgrading the risk level to a relatively rare high rating. There's still some questions as to how much super humid air will feed into this area.  If the humid air doesn't fully engulf this risk area, tornadoes might not be as widespread as feared. 

Stay tuned, and we'll hope the humidity sputters.

 Metro areas in the danger zone include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. In addition to the tornadoes, giant hail and hurricane force straight line winds are also possible in spots. Not everybody in the risk zone will see such dangerous weather, but a few certainly will. 

The activity moves on to Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, the heat we had this past week is certainly over. 

After a gorgeous, breezy, refreshing blue sky, green landscape day Friday, those clear skies led to the chilliest dawn since early this month. 

A crisp, blue sky morning in Vermont will lead to 
some changeable weather over the next few days,
though we're lucky enough to not be in for the
kind of severe weather occurring out in the
Midwest. No tornadoes for us!

 It wasn't extreme, but temperatures did fall to at least 31 in perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York. Readings in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom were in the mid-30s, while most of us were in the 40s. 

Burlington ended an 11-day streak of temperatures continuously above 50 degrees, which is quite rare for May.

We'll have another nice day today, though clouds will increase. A weak disturbance tonight will scatter some showers around, and we might even hear a rumble of thunder in a couple spots. No biggie.

Sunday will be a warm, largely sunny day. It might be a little too warm for those participating in Sunday's Vermont City Marathon in Burlington. Temperatures at dawn will start out near 60 and quickly rise well into the 70s by noon. Humidity will be moderate.

The interesting weather arrives Monday into Tuesday as we in Vermont see the effects of that Midwest storm. 

Luckily, we won't see extremes, but we should get a good dose of rain, some thunderstorms, and especially in the Champlain Valley, some gusty south winds. 

After a few days of low humidity, we'll actually need the rain for the gardens. At this point anywhere from a half inch to an inch and a half of rain is in the cards. The National Weather Service actually has us in a broad marginal risk zone for flash flooding Monday and Monday night. 

That said, even if we see anything like that in Vermont, it will be isolated and not catastrophic. We're still - so far at least - not setting ourselves up for anything like we had last summer. 

Starting Tuesday and going through the rest of the week, the weather will stay sort of cool for the season with risks for showers almost daily. No new heat waves in sight for now. 

Florida's DeSantis signs "Don't Say Climate Change" Bill. We'll See How That Works Out. Meteorologists Rebel

We can always rely on Florida for easy but stupid answers.

s

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed "don't say climate
change" legislation that scrubs reference to it from
state statutes. I guess if you pretend it doesn't
exist, then it doesn't exist?

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a "Don't Say Climate Change" bill into law that eliminates that supposedly awful phrase from state documents and regulations.  

As the Associated Press reports:

"Opponents of the bill DeSantis signed say it removes the word 'climate' in nine different places, moves the state's energy goals away from efficiency and the reduction of greenhouse gases blamed for a warming planet."

References to climate change will disappear from state statutes. I guess DeSantis doesn't want Floridians to say much.  After all, under DeSantis, Florida is the home to "don't say gay" laws. 

By the logic of DeSantis and his Republican-led legislature, if you pretend climate change doesn't exist, it goes away, I guess. Never mind the record spring heat wave that's been hitting parts of Florida. Or the increasing rate of sea level rise that keeps causing nuisance flooding in Miami. Or the enhanced hurricane risk later this summer and autumn. 

The bill DeSantis signed into law earlier this month also bans wind turbines offshore or near the state's huge coastline. 

Additionally, as NPR reports:

"(The law) would also boost expansion of natural gas, reduce regulation on gas pipelines in the state and increase protections against bans on gas appliances such as stoves, according to a news release from the governor's office."

DeSantis claims that the law is "restoring sanity" on energy issues and "rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots."

This comes at a time when Florida is really under assault from climate change and its side effects. A record heat wave this month sent heat indexes up to the 110-115 range, much higher than ever observed in May. 

Due to sea level rise, Miami has seen so far in 2024 water above mean high tide more often than in 1996, 1997 and 1998, said Brian McNoldy, a meteorologist specializing in sea level, climatology and hurricanes. 

Speaking of hurricanes, we know Florida is prone to hurricanes. Climate change tends to make those storms bigger and more powerful.  Due to unprecedented warmth in the parts of the Atlantic Ocean that brew hurricanes, forecasters say this could be a record season.  Florida could be in the crosshairs again. 

Insurance rates are going up because of this threat. Want to retire to Florida? If you do, remember that these higher insurance rates are forcing many Florida senior living centers to close.

Meteorologists are among those starting to rebel against DeSantis and his climate nonsense. 

Steve MacLaughlin, a meteorologist at a NBC affiliate in Miami, tore into DeSantis on social media and a video posted on his stations web site. "As Florida is on fire, underwater and unaffordable, our state government is rolling back climate change legislation and language, " he said on X, formerly Twitter.

On the video, MacLaughlin says, "The world is looking to Florida to lead in climate change, and our government is saying that climate change is no longer the priority it once was."

Other Florida meteorologists are starting to follow MacLaughlin's lead. John Morales, a longtime South Florida meteorologist, urged colleagues in broadcast media to do the same as MacLaughlin.

On X, formerly Twitter, Morales linked to MacLaughlin's video and said, "this is the time like no other to be courageous. Here's how."

MacLaughlin emphasized he was not telling people how to vote or who to vote for, but rather was emphasizing the science and the risks. 

Pointing out the obvious dangers of climate change can affect a television meteorologist's career. Last year, Chris Gloninger, a meteorologist at KCCI in Des Moines, resigned from his position after he got tons of hate mail and threats from MAGA types because he dared to note how climate change was endangering Iowa. 

Gloninger is now a Senior Scientist at Woods Hole Group.  

I'm not sure why so many far right politicians think that not mentioning things they don't want to deal with makes them go away. For better or worse, Americans tend not to want to shut up.  

I have a feeling that DeSantis and his minions will find this "Don't Say Climate Change" nonsense will eventually backfire on them. 

Climate change is powerful enough to eventually overrule any type of right-wing legislation.  Talk about backfiring! 

Piling On, NOAA Also Says Hurricane Season To Be Nuts

We've listened to a parade of forecasters all this spring say the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is going to be gonzo crazy. 

Hurricane Ian menacing Florida in 2021.  NOAA
Thursday joined the chorus of forecasters 
expecting an extremely busy hurricane season. 

Now, a week before the official start of the hurricane season, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is also remarkably confident this hurricane season is one to worry about. 

They give 2024 an 85 percent chance of being busier than average, a 10 percent chance of being pretty normal, and a 5 percent chance that it will be quieter than usual. 

NOAA and National Weather Service meteorologists and hurricane experts rarely give such a confident forecast for an entire storm season. This is the highest confidence forecast NOAA has ever issued in a May outlook, said NOAA Director Rick Spinrad. 

Their forecast calls for 17 to 25 named storms - which are tropical storms and hurricanes with at least 39 mph winds. They call for 8 to 13 hurricanes - winds of at least 74 mph; and four to seven major hurricanes, which have 111 mph winds or higher. 

The average for a season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

Says NOAA:

"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation."

Forecasters also expect more than the usual number of disturbances moving westward off the African coast into the Atlantic Ocean. These disturbances often form into tropical storms and hurricanes. 

It's rare to have this many factors come together to favor tropical storms, which seems to be giving NOAA that ominous forecast confidence. 

NOAA's forecast is virtually the same as other forecasts from numerous other sources this spring. A closely watched Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued in April predicts 23 named storms, and at least 11 hurricanes. 

NOAA's hurricane forecast, and that of most other forecasters, would bring us close to the record for the busiest season. That was in 2020, when there were 30 named storms.  That year,  the entire United States Atlantic Coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine was under some sort of hurricane or tropical storm warning at one time or another. 

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 but tropical storms can sometimes form before and after that timeframe. As of this morning there was a disturbance near Hispaniola that hurricane forecasters are watching, but as of today they doubt it will amount to anything.  

What will matter most this year, like every year,  is where hurricanes go once they've formed. The sheer number of storms expected this year makes the chances of one or more hitting the United States greater than it otherwise would be.

Still, the best scenario would be for hurricanes to curve northward well before reaching the United States. That was generally, but not exclusively the pattern last year. 

This year, our luck might run out. I've seen a few forecasts that would favor more westward paths that would bring hurricanes closer to the East or Gulf coasts. 

Up here in Vermont, we're too far inland to have much of a risk from a direct hit from a major hurricane. The last time that happened was in 1938.

However, the Green Mountain State is very much at risk from heavy rains and serious flooding if a dying hurricane or its remnants pass overhead or nearby. 

The last tropical storm to hit us was former Hurricane Isaias on August 4, 2020 which was still a tropical storm on its path from roughly Albany, New York to Rutland, then Newport, Vermont.  Two to four inches of rain fell in western Vermont during that episode, but a drought that preceded Isaias prevented much flooding. 

Winds of up to 50 mph caused power outages in eastern Vermont. 

However, we're rarely not so lucky in those circumstances. We all remember the epic floods from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. We also suffered from quite a bit of flooding and wind damage in Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999.

After the floods of last summer, which were not caused by any tropical storms, we don't need a disaster like that a second year in a row. Hopefully the hurricanes and tropical storms we're expecting this year stay far from Vermont. 

 

First 90 Degree Temperature Of The Season In Burlington, But No More For Awhile

Boaters try to cool off on Lake Champlain last September
4 during a three-day stretch of 90 degree weather. We
had our first 90 of the season Wednesday, and recent
years have featured a larger than usual number of such days.

 The temperature did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont for the first time this year. But don't count on it happening again for while.  

The last time it was 90 degrees before Wednesday wasn't all that long ago if you think about it. That happened on September 6, 2023,

A general cooling trend is coming over the next week, starting today.  We're off to a warm, humid start today, but  cold front will take care of that. 

We still expect a few showers and thunderstorms until this comes through, mainly this morning and early afternoon, perhaps lasting into mid-afternoon southeast.

It still looks like the front will come through too soon in the day to allow for any severe weather, aside from some lightning and quick hit or miss downpours. Eastern and southern New England might see a few severe storms as the front will make to the coast later today.

It'll remain on the warm side Friday through Sunday with daytime highs well into the 70s to a few spot 80 degree readings.  That's toasty for this time of year, but not ridiculous.

After that, starting mostly Monday night, we enter a long showery and cool period. Frankly, some of us could use more rain so that's not a bad thing. And the lack of oppressive summer heat next week will be a bit of relief, too

90 DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY

The first 90 degrees in Burlington was earlier than usual, but didn't break any records.  The average date of the first 90 is June 19th, says the National Weather Service in Burlington. 

The earliest 90 was incredibly early - April 17, 2002.

At least as measured in Burlington, we get on average about six days per year with highs of 90 degrees or more.  It varies a lot year to year, though. I've looked at records so far dating a century and found nine years with absolutely no 90 degree days. The last time that happened was in 2004.

The most 90s in a single year was in 1949 when we had 26 such days. 

I have noticed what seems to be an uptick of 90 degree days in recent years. Probably caused by a mix of mostly climate change and perhaps a little influence from an urban heat island effect as development has increased in and near Burlington. 

Each of the past nine years ending in 2023 had at least eight days reaching 90 degrees. There's not nearly that long of such a streak anywhere in previous record. Only one year since 2010 has had a below normal number of 90 degree days. (That was in 2014, when it only got that hot twice). 

Temperatures in the 90s during May does not necessarily translate into a hot summer, but it can. 

Twenty of the past 100 Mays, including this year, have gotten to 90.  Thirteen years in the past century that had 90 degree weather in May ended up having an above normal number of such days, while seven had near to below the normal allotment.  

Long range forecasts do call for a hot summer in New England, but those prognostications can be unreliable.  We'll just have to wait and see if we'll need to crank the air conditioning once again this summer. Or, if you're sick of the heat, we might hope for the first "cool" summer in a decade. 

National Tornado Train Continues: Tragedy In Iowa As Ominous Forecasts Continue

Screen grab from a drone video shows the buzz saw
path of the tornado through Greenfield, Iowa.
Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.

 The expected tornado outbreak in and around Iowa materialized Tuesday, with at least 23 new tornadoes reported. 

The biggest crisis was in the town of Greenfield, Iowa, population about 2,000. A powerful tornado chewed a path directly through the town, chewing up everything in its path and leaving little but mutilated rubble behind. 

Worryingly, officials are reporting deaths in that town. KETV confirmed four deaths in Greenfield late this afternoon.  Judging from photos and video from Greenfield, which show some houses swept entirely away, leaving just floor slabs, it's hard to imagine everyone got off unscathed. 

Another death was reported near Corning, Iowa, that of a woman whose car was blown off a road and tossed into a field. Reports are the woman was a storm chaser. 

This despite the fact the National Weather Service office in Des Moines was able to warn Greenfield residents of the tornado 46 minutes before it actually hit. 

Drone view from Reed Timmer shows a massive tornado with numerous sub vortices - tornadoes within the parent tornado - knocking over giant wind turbines in open fields. Some of the collapsed turbines caught fire. 

At one point one of the sub-vortices in the tornado had its own sub-vortice, which is really weird and rare. 

Through yesterday, at least 815 tornadoes have been reported this year in the United States. So far, it's the worst tornado season since 2011, though thankfully the total number of fatalities is well below that of 2011.

There has been at least one tornado daily in the United States since April 25, and I don't see the streak ending immediately. 

For most of that time, the general jet stream flow has been generally been from southwest to northeast over the eastern two thirds of the nation. That has allowed numerous storms to travel from the roughly the central and southern Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. 

That's a perfect set-up to send warm, humid air northward across the nation's middle. That air interacts with those storm systems, creating a good environment for severe thunderstorms, giant hail and tornadoes. 

We in Vermont have been mostly spared from worst of that weather pattern because the storms have tended to weaken on approach to New England, or pass too far to our northwest to have much influence. 

Tuesday was the first time this year any severe thunderstorms were reported inVermont, though some strongish thunderstorms appeared on April 28 and May 14. 

Although after tomorrow, the small threat of severe storms in Vermont should disappear for awhile, things look like they might get even worse on other parts of the U.S. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tells us a "concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across broad region of the central U.S."

According to forecasts a strong storm is expected to move from Missouri to Michigan on Sunday. That, and expected shifting winds in the atmosphere and plenty of humid air ahead of the storm, suggests the real risk of a big severe outbreak and tornadoes later Saturday and through much of the day Sunday. 

Early guesses are that the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys are most at risk Sunday. 

There is one glimmer of hope.  Next week, a  pattern change could send high pressure into the United States west of the Mississippi River. That will shut off that parade of storms. However, storminess will continue in the East. And it's late enough in the season so that under the right conditions with the new weather pattern, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can form from the eastern Gulf Coast to New England. 

It's also unclear how long that new weather pattern will last. 

May is thought by many to be the peak tornado month, but they are also very common in June, so the end probably isn't coming anytime soon. 

First Severe Storms Of Season In Vermont Tuesday; Heat, Few Strong Storms Today

As expected, a few strong thunderstorms, and a couple severe ones afflicted parts of Vermont Tuesday. 

Great structure on a strong, but not severe storm 
approaching Georgia, Vermont Tuesday evening. 

While most people who managed to join Tuesday's thunder parade just had some photogenic storm clouds, sharp lightning strikes and downpours, a couple areas really got blasted. 

One storm was still probably marginally severe after knocking down trees in Washington County, New York, just over the Rutland and Bennington county Vermont borders. It tracked across south central Vermont and eventually caused more tree damage in southwestern New Hampshire. 

But the true big storm was the supercell-like thing that popped up abruptly near the northern tip of Lake Champlain and trekked east, just south of the International border through Highgate and into Enosburg and probably beyond.

This one was intense. Route 207 was blocked for a time by fallen trees and branches. Social media showed West Enosburg Road in West Enosburg blocked by downed trees, power poles and power lines. Intense hail covered the ground around Enosburg. Some of the hailstones were the size of a quarter, so that had to hurt. 

As expected, the storms settled down after sunset, which leads us to another interesting Vermont weather day, at least in a few spots

TODAY

This will be the hottest day of this warm spell. Most - but definitely not all of us - will be storm free. But hot and humid.  Expect readings well into the 80s with a few banana belt towns maybe touching 90. 

Even though temperatures should fall just barely short of record highs, we're hot used to this type of weather so early in the season.  

Another view of the storm in Georgia, Vermont Tuesday. 

As a sort of besides side note, the record high of 93 degrees in Burlington today, set in 1977, was a dry heat, not the humid sort of stuff we have today.  That day in 1977 had also been the hottest May temperature on record until May 27, 2020, when it got to 95.

Anyway, today will be hot. Take it easy. 

There's no major weather disturbances to set off any storms today, so we'll rely on local effects. Updrafts near the mountains will probably cause a few popups. 

The wild card is near Lake Champlain. 

The cool waters set off lake breezes, which punch batches of relatively cool air just inland, right near the shore. These lake breezes act like mini cold fronts bopping into the hot, humid air. This contrast initiates updrafts which can turn into thunderstorms pretty quickly. 

The lake breezes would probably be sharper than they would be later in the season. The overall air mass is something we'd normally expect in July. So the contrast is greater, which makes things all the more dynamic.

Hot humid air often just needs some sort of spark to trigger strong storms. The lake breezes just might be the spark. So boaters and beach goers should be on the look out for rapidly forming storms this afternoon which could cause strong, gusty winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

Almost always when a hot, humid spell gets ready to end, it comes in the form of a cold front. More often than not, there's a disturbance ahead of the cold front, naturally  called a pre-frontal trough that is often the focus of thunderstorms.

If that pre-frontal trough comes through during peak heating in the afternoon or evening, you get severe storms. Those are less likely at night. Luckily, our first big pre-frontal trough comes through tonight. That just means a smattering of showers and storms on a muggy overnight that we're expecting.

The actual cold front comes through tomorrow. As it looks now we'll see it too early in the day for the front to take advantage of the sun's heat to fire up another round of strong storms. If there's any severe storms Thursday, they're most likely in eastern New England, where the cold front will arrive later.

As the day goes on, especially in the late afternoon and evening, you'll really notice a change in the air. Refreshing breezes will really drop the humidity, and our first round of oppressive summer air of the season will be over. 

Still A Severe Threat Here In Vermont, But A Much Bigger Storm Risk In Midwest

Skies already looked a little chaotic over St. Albans, 
Vermont before 8 a.m. today, hinting at a day that will
bring thunderstorms to the state. A few isolated
storms could turn severe with damaging wind/hail.

 It still looks like we in Vermont could see our first reports of severe thunderstorms of the season today, though the risk still looks fairly marginal.   

That means a few towns could see damaging gusts or large hail this afternoon or early evening, but most of us will escape with more moderate showers and storms, or in some cases nothing at all.

It will still be very much worth keeping an eye to the skies today and heading indoors when there's thunder. Also, if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see a particularly nasty looking storm coming, get into a good, sturdy building just to be safe.

At least today's storm threat here in the Green Mountain State doesn't involve large, powerful tornadoes like over in places like Iowa. (More on that problem in a minute).

VERMONT STORMS

The overall forecast today hasn't changed much since yesterday. We have summer like warmth and some humidity in place. A disturbance  coming in from the west is timed nicely - just in time to take advantage of peak heating this afternoon. 

The air over Vermont was already becoming conducive to showers and storms before 8 a.m today. A small downpour  had popped up near Plattsburgh, New York and a little south of St. Albans as of 7:30 a.m today.

The sun's heat will contribute to even more instability, and will work with the disturbance to form those towering thunderstorm clouds this afternoon.

The arrangement and timing of the storms looks pretty random, with no well defined front coming through. The storms will tend to pop up, then some will fade only to be replaced by new ones nearby. 

The best chance of seeing any storms would probably be between about 1:30 to 8:30 p.m, though a few rogue ones could pop up before or after that. 

Those isolated severe storms could also pop up anywhere in Vermont.  The sweet spot for them might be central Vermont, it seems, but even that is iffy. The severe storms will be far and few between. We're still in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. That's the lowest of a five-point alert scale. We'll have to watch to see whether they upgrade us to a level two, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one.  

Rainfall today will range widely. A few places will see nothing. A few other spots, especially this lucky devils that see more than one thunderstorm, will collect well over an inch of rain. I'm guessing many of us will see maybe a quarter inch of rain, maybe a half inch in several spots. 

It's a hit and miss day for sure.   

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week. A few more afternoon and evening storms could pop up, taking advantage of the summer heat,  but they won't be as widespread as today. 

Thursday's cold front is tentatively looking like it might come through early enough in the day to avoid severe weather, but the timing of it is still open to question. As forecasts evolve, I'm also getting less and less impressed by the strength of the cold front. 

 If anything big happens Thursday, it's more likely the further east and south you go. Stay tuned.

MIDWEST OUTBREAK

Another big storm day in the Midwest, especially in areas
shaded in red and orange. Tornadoes, intense 
thunderstorms, large hail and flooding are a good bet in
those areas. Meanwhile, that dark green over us
here in Vermont forecasts isolated instances of 
severe thunderstorms today. 

Whatever might happen here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England will really be small potatoes compared to what's going on in the middle of the United States. 

A pretty vigorous storm is getting going now around Nebraska.  The organizing storm has already produced about 20 tornadoes over the past couple of days in the central Plains, plus lots of wind and big hail. 

As that storm organizes further today, it will create a nearly perfect environment for powerful storms centered on Iowa. Parts of Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois are also in what is now a moderate risk zone. That's the second highest level on that five point storm alert scale.

There were already tornado warnings early this morning between Omaha, Nebraska and Sioux City, Iowa, plus lots of severe storm and flash flooding warnings across parts of Iowa.

This initial blast of bad weather will move on this morning, making way for new supercells to form. Some tornadoes in a zone between northern Missouri and southeastern Minnesota could become strong and long lasting.  

I wouldn't be surprised if ultimate, a few dozen tornadoes are reported when all this is said and done

NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists also think the storms will eventually form into a line of intense weather with straight line winds of 75 to 90 mph. 

Meanwhile, heavy rains could spread the flooding we're seeing now near Omaha and Des Moines to spread through much of Minnesota and Wisconsin later today and tonight. 

The bottom line is we're seeing yet another very rough weather day in the Midwest. 

Plus, it's not done. A band from central Texas all the way up through western New York and Ontario is under the gun for severe storms tomorrow. Plus, the southern Plains are expecting rough weather Thursday.  

Houston Recovery: Heat, Bad Air Quality, Power Outages In The Way

Collapsed power transmission towers after last week's
extreme storm in Houston, Texas. 

 I would say Houston is having almost the worst possible weather to recover from that amazing, incredibly destructive storm on Thursday. 

Heat and humidity is building in eastern Texas, making clean up harder and more dangerous.  People without power are dealing with this without air conditioning. Those with health problems are at risk because of this. 

As of late Sunday, about 260,000 homes and businesses were still without power in the Houston area. It might take all week for some of them to get the juice flowing again.  In this situation, it seems you alway find one outrageous incident, and here's Houston's.

A residential complex for elderly and disabled people was already in disrepair when the storm hit. It caused added damage to the facility at cut off electricity. 

KHOU said management abandoned the 260 or so residents, who did not have electricity, air conditioning, food, ice or other necessities from the time Thursday's storm hit until Sunday. That's when the city's mayor and fire department got wind of the situation. Two people were taken to a hospital, and the city brought ice, water and food. The local utility restored electricity to the complex later Sunday. 

People could have died. Houston Mayor John Whitmire vowed to go after the complex owners and managers. Let's hope he follows through. 

The only bright spot is no additional severe storms are in the forecast for at least the next week. Even so, many rivers in the general Houston area remain well above  flood stage. 

National Weather Service meteorologists did their investigations of the storm. They found most of the damage in and around Houston was from intense straight line winds. Part of downtown Houston, where windows were blown out of skyscrapers had winds of 100 mph, says the National Weather Service office in Houston. 

There was at least one embedded tornado in Thursday's mess. It hit the community of Cypress, a little northwest of Houston. Several homes suffered extensive damage from the tornado's winds, which reached an estimated 110 mph. 

The storm system turned into a derecho - a long lasting line of severe thunderstorms that overnight Thursday knicked the Gulf coastline before smacking into Florida Friday. 

That these storms hit so hard was partly due to a dome of extreme heat smothering Mexico, Central America and parts of the Caribbean. 

When you get these heat domes, clusters of severe thunderstorms often rid along the curving northern edge of the giant blob of heat.  These "ridge runners" as the batches of severe storms are often called, often cause trouble in the Plains, Midwest and sometimes the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States during the summer. 

The heat dome that contributed to the derecho is dangerous in and of itself. All time record high temperatures for this time of year have been reported from  Central America to Florida. Belize had its hottest day in that country's history, reaching as high as 108 degrees

Water temperatures there have already warmed up to levels usually not reached until August. 

The record heat near the Caribbean Sea might have implications for the upcoming hurricane season.

The hotter the water, the more fuel for any hurricanes that drift into the Caribbean Sea. If any of those hurricanes on steroids reach land, there'd be hell to pay, as you'd imagine. 

Which means, places that got hit by the derecho and other highly destructive storms this spring from Texas to Florida might face even bigger devastating storms later this year. 

 

Vermont Summer Warmth Guaranteed; Storms Iffy This Week

A sea of lilacs in my St. Albans back yard this 
morning awaits a very summer like week in Vermont

 On a lovely Sunday in at least western Vermont, the temperature got up to 81 degrees in Burlington, launching what will be four or five consecutive days of 80s summer warmth. 

Eastern Vermont was mostly in the clouds Sunday, but they should break out into partly sunny skies like the rest of us for most of this week. 

The heat and humidity will build most of this week, and that means the risk of thunderstorms. There might, or might not be some strong ones mixed in on a couple days this week, but that depends on how things shape up in the atmosphere. 

Yesterday, I said the chances of storms this week would be touch and go. That idea hasn't changed.

VERMONT HEAT

Let's get into temperatures first. The temperature and humidity forecasts here are fairly high confidence, at least through Wednesday. We'll probably get close to what is outlined below

The main story is the warmth will continue to build, and so will the humidity. 

Today will be somewhat more humid than Sunday was, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it uncomfortable. Dew points, a good approximation of how icky you'll feel out there, should get up into the upper 50s to near 60 or so. 

That's a bit much if you're doing strenuous outdoor exercises, but otherwise not bad. Temperatures should reach the low 80s for many of us. 

Tuesday looks warmer and more humid.  The heat will be tempered by clouds, especially in the afternoon (which I'll get into in the storm section below). So expect highs for most valleys in the 80-85 degree range. Dew points go into the low to perhaps mid 60s in some spots, so it will feel sticky, but not anything like the wilting humidity you might feel in places like Florida,

Wednesday will be the worst day of the week. Temperatures will get well into the 80s.  A few places might touch 90, but for now anyway, forecasters have sort of backed off the idea of widespread low 90s in the valleys. We'll have to wait and see on that. 

But not matter what happens, temperatures in the mid and upper 80s with dew points well into the 60s mean an oppressive day. We're not used to this kind of thing yet, either, so that will make it feel worse.

My ever-loyal husband has responded to my pleas to install the air conditioner in the bedroom window, as I think we'll need it for a couple nights this week. 

Thursday's a wild card, both in terms of weather and temperatures. It all depends on when an expected cold front blows through. If it's early, we'll have a pleasant cooldown by afternoon. If it's later in the day, we'll have to wait until Thursday night to see relief.

In any event, we should be back to refreshingly cool by Friday, if current forecasts pan out. 

STORMS

The forecast regarding storms this week is lower confidence than the heat predictions, for sure. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in northern
New England in a marginal risk for severe storms
Tuesday (dark green). That's the lowest in a five point
alert scale. At least we're not getting a large scale
severe outbreak like that big yellow and 
orange area in the Midwest. 

Today, there's a low chance a shower or storm could develop in the rising warmth this afternoon. If that happens, they'll be isolated, brief, and probably cling to mountains or maybe in northern New York where a cool Lake Champlain breeze could interact with warm air a bit inland.  

Tuesday is still huge wild card. One key ingredient for storms is warmth and humidity, and we'll have that. A weak disturbance coming in could provide enough lift to trigger showers and storms

If things come together just right, a few afternoon or evening storms could become strong to severe.

Whether this happens depends on a few things. 

Some of the computer models get a little over-excited when they see batches of thunderstorms upstream from us and "think" we will end up seeing the same. But those upstream storms can screw up our chances of having much thunder and lightning here. 

"Debris clouds" - chunks of high and middle level clouds torn off the top of those thunderstorms far to the west - could largely block the sun.  The sun's heat contributes to the instability that can trigger storms. Without that sun, the necessary instability just might not be there for the storms. 

Also, the path of the upper level disturbance that would trigger the storms matters. If it goes too far north or too far south, we don't get the conditions for a big storm. For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk for severe weather, the lowest in a five point alert system for such dangerous weather.

I think we might know more about the storm potential by early tomorrow morning. 

Regardless of what happens, not everybody will see a storm tomorrow. If they do crank up, they'll be hit and miss.

When we get to Wednesday, only a few pop up storms might get going here and there in the sultry air. 

Thursday is yet another wild card. If the cold front gets here in the morning, then we'll see just regular old showers, maybe a local downpour and a rumble of thunder. Yawn.

If the cold front arrives in the afternoon or evening, that would give a chance for the sun to go to work on the humidity. That would put the risk of severe storms on the table. We'll honestly have to wait until at least Wednesday to work out that forecast.